Despite the rumors of an alleged aversion to his hometown, I have felt for some time that Dallas posed as one of the biggest threats to the Houston Rockets in the Chris Bosh sweepstakes. For more insight into the unique circumstances surrounding the Mavs, I enlisted the help of Rob Mahoney, author of ESPN TrueHoop’s Dallas Mavericks blog, The Two Man Game.
What follows is the transcript of our conversation:
Rahat: Eric Dampier’s partially guaranteed contract might be the single most attractive trade asset in play this summer. Please explain the nature of his contract.
Rob: The value of Erick Dampier’s contract comes in layers. On a basic level, Damp seems to be on his way toward earning a paycheck next season worth a little more than $13 million, which obviously far exceeds his practical basketball value. So from that standpoint, he would seem damn near unmovable.
However, Dampier’s 2010-2011 salary is only guaranteed if he meets certain conditional performance requirements (triggers that would have guaranteed his salary included a specified number of All-Star appearances, minutes played, etc.), which he fell short of meeting. That means that theoretically, if the Mavs so choose, they could cut Dampier loose this summer at zero cost. $13 million in savings is obviously pretty damn important ($26 million when you consider the luxury tax implications), even for an owner like Mark Cuban. Still, the fact that Damp’s contract is unguaranteed only holds situation-specific value; though the fact that Dampier’s contract is unguaranteed obviously matters a great deal to Dallas, it wouldn’t really impact any other team in the league.
Although that’s not necessarily the case. Damp doesn’t have an early termination option, a player option, or even a team option, but a unique contractual situation that allows teams to decide whether or not to guarantee his 2010-2011 salary even after acquiring him. This makes Dampier a damn near invaluable trade chip for a potential sign-and-trade. By rule, the contractual assets on both sides of any trade have to be within 125% of one another (+$100,000, if I’m not mistaken), supposing both trade partners are over the cap. Damp’s contract would then be pretty useful for salary matching purposes, but with a latent benefit for the team acquiring Dampier.
Should circumstances dictate a sign-and-trade as the best option for any of this summer’s free agents (or even just a regular trade for a quality non-free agent player with a bigger contract), Dallas would likely have the inside track. Other teams could offer decent talent in a trade, but the Cavs, Heat, Raptors, etc. are never going to be satisfied in a talent-for-talent swap considering their potentially outgoing stars. Instead, Dallas can offer a good player on an expiring deal (Caron Butler, worth about $10.6 million next season) that the team can choose to either keep for the future or cut loose after one season of service, Damp’s $13 million in empty salary for which they won’t have to pay a penny, and possibly even the dynamic soon-to-be-sophomore, Rodrigue Beaubois. That allows a team losing it’s star a clear way to rebuild, as they take on no long-term salary, get a star-in-the-making in Beaubois, and can even keep Butler for a moderate cost if they choose to re-sign him.
That’s a pretty significant trade package for a team that would otherwise lose a billboard player and gain nothing in return, which could make Dallas a preferred sign-and-trade partner for a number of teams this summer.
Rahat: So who will the Mavericks be targeting?
Rob: Without trying to be too non-specific: anyone and everyone. LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Joe Johnson, all the way down the line, and to know which non-FA targets are on the Mavs radar would be almost impossible at this point. Dallas is in a weird place where they’re not particularly weak at any position, but still aren’t good enough to win a title.
PG – Kidd, Barea, Beaubois
SG – Butler, Terry, Beaubois
SF – Marion, Butler
PF – Nowitzki, Marion, Najera
C – Haywood, Dampier, Najera
Obviously Dampier will likely be out of the mix by next season and Butler could be as well, but even then, what is the clear point of emphasis in free agency? Depth at center is obviously important, particularly if the Mavs can’t hold on to Brendan Haywood, who is an unrestricted free agent. Other than that, it’s not like Dallas can plug a player into the starting lineup and call it a day. I think Butler is a little problematic as a member of the first unit, so if the Mavs could find a capable shooting guard that can score and defend, they could either trade Butler or move him to the bench.
Right now, Dallas is just looking for value. Dampier is a very attractive trade chip, but one with an expiration date, so the Mavs will be looking to find something for him this summer.
Rahat: What about Nowitzki? Could he be in play this summer? We know Cuban has been very loyal in the past, but with the window starting to close, might that change? If Chris Bosh could be had in a sign and trade for Dirk, would Mark bite?
Rob: I don’t see any possible way that Dirk isn’t in a Maverick uniform next season. I know he’s technically a free agent if he chooses to be, but the Mavs will either keep him for one more year on his current deal, extend that deal, or he will opt-out and re-sign with the team. There’s too much history between Nowitzki and the Mavs, and everyone within the organization understands how central Dirk is to everything that the team does.
If Chris Bosh was a possibility in a sign-and-trade with Dirk as the cost, I think Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson would have to give that offer a hard look. I consider Nowitzki the better player today, but Dirk will turn 32 this summer while Bosh is just 26. That should be enough to at least keep Mark and Donnie on the line, although I don’t see trading Dirk as a particularly likely possibility, even with Bosh as the bounty. This would definitely be one of those cases where the brass would look to do right by Nowitzki should they ever choose to trade him, and Toronto these days doesn’t exactly qualify as “doing right.”
Bosh is a terrific player, and I’m sure the Mavs would love to have him through any other means, but in this case I think the cost would be a bit too great, both in terms of basketball fit/ability and sentimental value.
