“A lot of guys, their whole game is flopping offensively, and they’re very efficient at it,” he said. “[Martin] is one of the best floppers. Offensively he uses it to his advantage; he does a good job at it, getting to the lane, hitting people and throwing the ball up. He’s just using the game, being smart.”

Mbah a Moute’s commentary was phrased in a complimentary way, but it shouldn’t be read that way. With the playoffs in full bloom and each possession under the microscope of a basketball watching nation, flopping has quickly become the NBA’s most contentious issue. Pacers head coach Frank Vogel was fined $15,000 last week before his series against the Heat started, not for commenting on any actual officiating, but for calling Miami out as one of the league’s most advantageous group of floppers. In his first round series against the Clippers, Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins said “Chris Paul does a good job of flopping” in a nationally televised in-game interview.

Some believe it’s impossible to legislate, and others, like current ESPN analyst and former Rockets head coach Jeff Van Gundy, can’t understand why referees blow the whistle in obvious situations where a player’s body reacts to non-existent contact.

As a productive scorer who’s averaged over 20 points per game in five of his eight seasons, Martin’s face could become the overblown mascot shown on flopping’s figurative billboard. Foul shots are Martin’s offensive foundation. They’re what earned him an eight digit contract, and what make him an annual snub at All-Star weekend. You already knew he was one of the best at getting to the line, and that the way he did it was quirky (to say the least), but now that the winds against flopping are the harshest they’ve ever been, how does this affect players who use it to thrive? What will guys like Martin do if referees begin calling the game differently?

This past season may have served as a window into the future. Martin drew 2.1 fewer fouls per game in 2012 than he did the year before. Statistically speaking, he had no impact whatsoever, positive or negative, on the team. His sudden inability to get to the free-throw line took away the one thing he was really, really good at, and it made him an average shooting guard at best.

This serves as direct contrast to the 2011 season, when Houston’s FTA rate (free-throws attempted relative to field goals attempted) was higher with Martin was on the court, and lower than average when he was off, which is to be expected: Martin drew more fouls than Derrick Rose, LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Paul, and Paul Pierce, all while playing fewer minutes. (In the case of Aldridge, a power forward who spends half his time near the basket, Martin played 610 less minutes and drew 14 more fouls.)

A couple days ago, with the help of Synergy, I watched every shooting foul Kevin Martin drew this season. To be honest, it was tough to watch. His body looked like a crash test dummy. First he snaps his neck back, as if he’s been jolted forward on a roller-coaster. Then there’s a yelp; a sudden cry for help directed towards the officials, or whoever will listen. Most of the plays looked eerily similar, showing consistency and an ongoing refusal from the league’s officials to acknowledge an action that isn’t a foul.

Sometimes the whistle was just, but a good percentage of the time it wasn’t, and when it’s bogus, the innocent defender turns into a child just informed that the Tooth Fairy doesn’t exist.

The five plays you are about to see are an embarrassment to the game of basketball. Speaking as someone interested in preserving both the NBA’s integrity and entertainment level, they have no place in the game. And yet, removing them is so difficult. In most cases, even the shrewdest eyes aren’t able to appropriately identify what’s a flop and what’s not in a split second’s time.

Martin’s made a career off deceiving opposing defenders. In the 40 games he started this year, we saw his value—both on the trade market and the court—take a substantial hit, all because he showed a growing powerlessness when it came to attacking his spots on the floor and ending up at the free-throw line.

Kevin Martin is a one-dimensional player who primarily gets his points from the free-throw line. He doesn’t get anybody else involved, doesn’t play defense, and his team’s don’t win—Martin’s career record in the playoffs is 2-4. (He’s sort of like a poor man’s Carmelo Anthony.) He isn’t the same player without the sound of a whistle, and looking at his flopping from an absolute worst case scenario, a drastic change in the way the game is refereed could slowly push him right out of the league.

Follow the discussion and comment here.

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles

As I had predicted, Clippers-Grizzlies was an absolute treat and to my delight, we will live to see four more games at the least of Chris Paul.  The rest of the playoffs, Lakers-Nuggets included, in my opinion, have been a complete bore.  If the first round was any indication, the semis should also be a snoozefest.  The Heat should dispose of the Pacers in 4 or 5 as should the Thunder of the Lakers.  As much as it pains me to accept the reality, the Clippers don’t stand a prayer against the Spurs and will likely get swept.  Celtics-Sixers has a chance to last 6, but to be honest, I really don’t care.  Despite the parity, I don’t plan on watching a single game of that series – maybe I’m just getting old.

A word on Clippers-Grizzlies: Especially today, that was just beautiful, beautiful basketball.  I live to watch physical play where only the strong survive.  Blake Griffin, despite his offensive struggles, for his physicality in matching Zach Randolph, became a man today.  For once, he didn’t flop; he hit back, hard, and he took blows.  And Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans – if the Rockets ever get good again, these are the type of guys that I want playing for them.  Brute enforcers that bring the pain and set the tone for the officiating.

A word on Blake Griffin: as a Chris Paul fan, and a fan of the NBA, I really hope Blake gets to work this offseason.  He has to become a true offensive force and stop relying on his athleticism.  He has to learn how to shoot the midrange jumper or Chris Paul’s greatness is completely wasted.  He has the early vestiges of a post-game–solid initial positioning, balance, and coordination–but the moves just aren’t there.  Too often, he finds himself spinning in awkward positions going away from the basket, or simply trying to jump over his man en route to the hoop.  Blake needs to slow down and learn the simple basics.  Drop-step.  Soft, feathery jump hook.  Turnaround.  Just simple, single-step moves and counters.

A word on Chris Paul: Those mid-range pullups are as smooth as butter.  And of course, other than Steve Nash, I haven’t seen anyone, I think ever, with as tight of a handle on the ball.  After watching this series, I’m beginning to wonder, as are others undoubtedly, will Paul stay after next year?  This Clippers team is basically Hornets 2.0.  In fact, if I had a game or series tomorrow, I’d take Chandler/West ‘08 9 times out of 10 over Jordan/Blake.  Jordan gives you nothing, really, and Blake at this point isn’t as potent as West was in his prime.  The smart basketball move would be to offer the two big men up for Dwight Howard but of course, the smart basketball move is never made.

A scary thought: Down to the last team, Sixers and Jazz included, I don’t think these Rockets are better than a single participant I’ve seen in this year’s playoffs.  Of the West semifinalists, there isn’t a single one against whom the Rockets would stand a prayer in a series.  A chilling realization about how far this team still has to go.

Follow the discussion and comment here.

A lot of these situations are born in the playoffs, where due to the enormous stage and increased importance, small sample sizes are unjustly extrapolated. One such example is former Rockets center Jordan Hill. Taken by the Knicks with the No. 8 pick in the 2009 draft, Hill has lurched through his career with the sticky “bust” label that can hang over a player until he either shakes it off or falls out of the league entirely.

In New York he was deplorable, and with Houston he wasn’t much better. In both situations the assumption was that the big bodied Hill could maintain respectability on the glass, shuffle his feet on the defensive end, and from time to time put the ball in the hoop all by himself. None of the items on that miniature-checklist were ever marked off. (Here are a few players from his draft class who’ve grabbed more total rebounds: James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, and Jrue Holiday. All guards.)

When given a chance to shine, Jordan Hill did very little to take advantage. He had six double digit rebound performances in 32 regular season appearances with Houston this year. Then he was traded to the Lakers for practically nothing—0 minutes from Derek Fisher and a first round pick from Dallas that’s top 20 protected through 2017 (the Mavs have the 17th overall pick this year, so Houston will have to wait on the benefits of that one). At the time of the deal, Los Angeles’ main motivation for making the trade wasn’t to acquire Hill, but instead to flush Derek Fisher’s salary down the toilet and make space for Ramon Sessions, a player who could polish the rustiest part of that team.

The Lakers already had suspect garbage (Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy) serving as backups to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, so by grabbing Hill from Houston, they were quietly improving two weaknesses at once. However, due to Hill’s prior accomplishments—or lack thereof—nobody talked about his possible importance. Somehow he’s forced himself into the conversation.

Before the playoffs began, Hill appeared in seven games for the Lakers. In two of them, he grabbed 10 or more rebounds. In 39 games with both teams, he had five double-doubles. In the five games that have been played in the Lakers first round series against Denver, he’s posted two double-doubles—both Laker victories—playing about half the game in both instances. In fact, the Lakers are undefeated this year (5-0, regular and postseason) when Jordan Hill logs more than 20 minutes. This isn’t borderline irrational, it’s complete and udder insanity.

How is it that Jordan Hill is playing so well with the Lakers—in the playoffs!—when six months ago he was a regular on the end of Houston’s bench? As a fan of the Rockets, how does it make you feel? Is it a Jeremy Lin 2.0 situation or something far less significant, hardly worth a day dream? Hill is less talented than Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, but he’s playing harder and with more fire than them both. Why is this? I couldn’t tell you.

We see it time and time again: young players who were once viewed as limitless talents are recycled throughout the league; one team’s trash is another team’s treasure, and in no instance is this more visible than the one we’re witnessing out in L.A. It’s taken him the better half of three years, but Jordan Hill is finally showing he’s worth a roster spot.  If he’s smart, he’ll never leave.

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles

For Houston, and almost every other team in the league, Roy Hibbert could be that player. He’s 7’2″ from the top of his head to the bottom of his feet. But when he extends his arms and leaps for a rebound, that number grows to something like 13 feet. Coming off his first All-Star appearance last year, Hibbert is a restricted free agent this offseason, which is good news for his agency, and bad for his current team. Taking into account the money that centers made on first year deals this year—DeAndre Jordan ($10 million), Marc Gasol ($12.9 million), Tyson Chandler ($13.1 million), and Nene ($13 million)—if the Rockets were to sign Hibbert, there’s a chance, depending on how they play their hand with Kevin Martin, he’d become their highest paid player. When you take into account Motiejunas and the two first round picks (as of now), Houston’s cap space dramatically shrinks.

But maybe the price tag won’t be as high as everybody thinks. I’m no economics major, but take a look at the market right now. With the likes of JaVale McGee, Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Spencer Hawes, Omer Asik, Brook Lopez, and Robin Lopez all hitting free agency, there’s a decent supply of big man in this year’s free agency class that could presumably drive the inflated price down from what we saw in last year’s spending spree. But even if you’re paying him eight digits per year for the next four years, is that really such a bad thing? Hibbert has improved almost every area of his game in every season since he entered the league. Two years ago he gave up 0.91 PPP when defending the post. Last year that number was down to 0.72, a significant improvement. He’s getting to the free-throw line more, grabbing more rebounds, posting a higher true shooting percentage, committing fewer fouls, and playing more minutes. When shooting the ball from 3-9 feet this season, Hibbert’s been more accurate than Al Jefferson, Andrew Bynum, Marc Gasol, and Dwight Howard. And he takes over four shots from that range per game, so this is no small sample size.

After absorbing the fact that his continued improvement hasn’t been a coincidence, and that there’s no telling where the ceiling for a hungry/humble 7’2″ man lies, things get a little scary. This from a recent must read Grantland article on Hibbert’s development:

Hibbert pays Justin Zormelo, a private scout, to send him edited film and detailed reports on himself and the center he’s matched up against before every game. “The guys who work for the team are great, but they have to focus on the whole team,” Hibbert says. “It’s good to get something more personal.”

The bottom line about basketball is this: size matters. In recent years there have been various rule changes and strategic movements toward prioritizing use of the three-point shot, but so it goes, if you don’t have enough size, you can’t clog up the middle, intimidate penetrators, end defensive possessions with emphatic rebounds, tip out your own team’s misses for multiple opportunities on the same possession, or slow the game down with easy free-throws and post-up situations. As was previously said, Hibbert stands at 7’2″, and next to Andrew Bynum, he might be the tallest of all the tall guys who matter in the league. But Hibbert’s different from Bynum in that he doesn’t have a monstrous, all-consuming ego. Hibbert knows his sh*t stinks, and knows that despite his size and sometime dominant advantage on the offensive end, there are other ways for his team to attack an opposing defense. Sometimes his importance lies on the less glamorous end of the court, and Roy Hibbert appears to be okay with that.

Think about him as a member of the Rockets; what he could do with Kevin McHale in a full training camp. How does that not improve his game even further? After four years in the league with Indiana, the tenure of Hibbert’s next contract should be seen as the next chapter in his career. The expectations have changed. What you’re getting is a dominant center who could and should make the All-Star game every single year. A player who’s only going to get better. If you have Hibbert on your team, there’s a good chance you won’t have to worry about an opposing center throughout the life of his contract. He takes care of a very important part of every basketball game, and for that he’s invaluable.

One more thing to bring this pro-Roy Hibbert argument full circle. When we talk about improving the Rockets’ main defensive problem, this season the Indiana Pacers, Hibbert’s current team, had the fifth best interior defense in the league, giving up just 38.1 points in the paint per game. That’s the difference between making the playoffs and peeping through a window.

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles

Huq: Can you confirm the rumblings that Portland will make Goran Dragic their top priority this summer?  Is that what you’ve also heard?

Golliver: Blazers Acting GM Chad Buchanan has repeatedly stated that the starting point guard position is the team’s No.1 priority. All indications are that after a truly awful season incumbent Raymond Felton won’t be anything but an absolute last, last, last resort to fill that role, if that. Heading into a rebuilding cycle, Dragic would fit Portland’s plans better than a number of the free agents that are coming available this summer because of his age and his proven skill level. You can find the logic behind Portland’s interest by simple process of elimination. He’s not too old (Nash, he’s not a retread (Miller), he’s not a 2 trying to play 1 (Bayless), he’s not a midget (Augustin), he’s not totally out of their league (Williams), he’s not a Felton clone (Nelson). Dragic has stated he wants his own team, Portland has been desperately searching for someone capable of handling that role on a long-term basis for years, he’s unrestricted and Portland has substantial cap space.

The only caveat is that this all is acting under the current operating protocol which could change at any moment. A new GM would potentially bring a new philosophy.

Huq: How much are the Blazers expected to have under the cap?

Golliver: At this point they are only expected to have two contracts that aren’t minimum or rookie deals on the books for next year: LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews (totaling $20.5 million). They’ll need to re-sign or match on Nicolas Batum and make a decision on J.J. Hickson. Various estimates have put them in the $15-$20 million range which we all know can change quickly. Buchanan has said the team’s goal is to add veteran pieces at the point guard and center positions using that space (via trade or outright signings) before going above the cap line to sign Batum. Whether they are able to accomplish that or not (or whether they are bluffing to appease fans and will actually proceed with a draft-oriented youth movement), who knows. But that’s the stated plan.

Huq: Do you think management would be open to trading for Kyle Lowry instead?  What would they be willing to offer?

Golliver: There’s only one reason I can see Portland not having interest in Lowry: his no contest plea to the incident in Las Vegas. This organization holds an incredibly high character standard for its players and views them as community ambassadors. I’m not sure that’s a serious enough red flag to prevent interest but that’s the lens they have operated through for years now.

As a player, though, Lowry would be very intriguing of course. To provide context, you have to realize what Portland just went through during the Raymond Felton Era. He showed up out of shape, melted down in fourth quarters time and again, called out his coach publicly, invited fans and critics to his home (broadcasting the name of the condo in which he lived) for a personal confrontation, put up the worst shooting numbers of his career (which got inflated a little during meaningless end of season games) and turned the ball over like crazy. Competency would be a luxury compared to Felton so of course Lowry’s skill level and reasonable contract would be very attractive to a team in this situation. Remember also that Portland does not have another option at point guard right now. Rookie guard Nolan Smith didn’t particularly look like an NBA player this season and he’s almost 24 years old. Whoever is brought in as the starter will be asked to play heavy minutes.

In terms of trades for Lowry, I’m not sure I see an obvious package. Portland is asset-deficient after executing a number of 3-for-1 or 2-1 deals over the previous couple of years and the younger guys have yet to break out and/or stay healthy. Portland’s best trade assets currently are its two lottery picks (assuming New Jersey’s transfers per the top-3 protection this season) and they’ve made it clear those picks are very available. Aldridge and Batum are guys they want long-term. Matthews is not untouchable but I doubt he would be of much interest. Portland would have trouble parting with him, anyway, because of the anticipated departure of Jamal Crawford and the health problems to Elliot Williams. I think to boil this down: unless Houston really wants a lottery pick this year there’s not a great deal to be found.

Huq: If the Magic do indeed deal Dwight Howard, would the Blazers be open to trading Aldridge for him or is that too great of a risk (without an extension)? Would they be able to manuever far enough beneath the cap to trade for Howard and also sign Deron Williams?

Golliver: I don’t foresee any situation in which Dwight Howard has interest in playing for Portland. I also don’t foresee any situation in which Deron Williams has interest in playing for Portland. That’s the major factor in almost all superstar moves these days unless a genius like Kevin O’Connor is involved. I don’t see that type of executive in either New Jersey or Orlando.

Comment here.

This kind of insight is why ‘Inside the NBA’ is the best show on television.

A note: I wish I hadn’t been so young when Hakeem was here because I’m just now making observations when seeing reruns of his.  One thing that just came to mind: aside from just how ridiculous his arsenal was in its entirety, what even made him think  to expand it in such ways?  As humans, we learn by imitation and attempt new things through emulation.  What made him think “I as a big man should put my soccer footwork to good and use these guard moves and cross people over and spin on them.”

Stepping aside from basketball, a big part of emulation is the knowledge that something can be done and the confidence/reassurance that brings just simply because someone else has done it with success.  So I think one of the big things about Hakeem that isn’t appreciated is the creativity and confidence to even reach that point of inventing post moves…

A final note on Hakeem: When news breaks of Hakeem’s tutelage of some superstar, the reaction almost always is, “Why haven’t the Rockets hired him as a coach?”  Think for a second.

You’re the greatest consultant in the world in a particular field.  Would you work in-house somewhere and handle low-profile, unspectacular clients?  Or instead, would you stay independent and only handle the best and as they sought you out?  The answer is fairly obvious.

The charge that Jordan Hill faces, like any felony, is serious.  However, all we know thus far is the girlfriend’s accusations through the media.  It was a good move for Hill on his part for not commenting, other than to say he is saddened by the allegations and is cooperating with authorities.  Until more evidence is gathered, there are many questions a criminal defense lawyer might ask.  Are these pictures of her alleged bruises legitimate?  Did she see a doctor who can vouch for her alleged injuries?  Does she have a motive to falsely accuse Hill—perhaps not being happy with his response when asked about their future together?  Anyway, I will let Hill’s lawyers sort that out.

Interestingly, if the girlfriend did not claim that Hill choked her but only hit or kicked her, he would likely only be charged with a Class A misdemeanor assault and face a maximum jail sentence of one year.  In 2009, the Texas legislature made it a third degree felony to choke a family member or dating partner.  This recent change in the law is why Hill faces up to 10 years in prison rather than a maximum of one year in jail.

Joel Hayter, Criminal Defense Attorney, The Schaffer Firm, Houston Texas, joelhayterlaw@gmail.com

SERIES ABOUT WHICH PEOPLE ACTUALLY CARE

• Los Angeles Clippers versus Memphis Grizzlies: The only series in which I genuinely feel silly picking either team and acting as if I can support such a claim with certainty, this one might collapse into itself as the nexis of all NBA diehard viewership in the first round. Blake Griffin has recently shown himself to not only be the Boy Prince of Dunkitude, posting a couple of high-efficiency scoring outbursts in a pair of losses to the Hawks and Clippers; while a 36 or a 29-point-night might not seem like much, the variety of ways (face-up jumpers, step-throughs in the post) in which he scored the points finally made him appear to be a worthy second option to the wizardry Chris Paul’s largely left in his pocket until fourth quarters this year. But I’m pretty sure the rest of the world will quickly forget about the Clippers’ highly efficient, if sometimes unwatchable, offense (ranked fourth leaguewide) once it’s vaulted into the rusted, gaping maw of the Grizzlies’ D, one that seems almost naturally made for the rigors (read: laxer rule enforcement by officials) of the postseason. Just a year ago, this same Grizzlies team sans its best perimeter threat in Rudy Gay took it to another high-powered offense without a lot of muscle in the middle, but that Spurs squad didn’t have one of the league’s best players or a couple of benchwarmers in Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans who would love to get equally as violent as the Grizzlies’ boys. I like both of these two teams too much to want to see this one in the first round, but someone must win, and despite home court advantage, I’m inclined to give this one to the Clippers in six games.

• Boston Celtics versus Atlanta Hawks: Another playoff season, another terrible series made hard to watch by a Hawks team around which a layer of visual muck seems to orbit. No matter who is in a series with them, be it Derrick Rose or Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, the Hawks make things visually unappealing. But this could legitimately be classified as these Celtics’ last stand, their defense of the castle, and defining legacies can generally be something to behold, even when playing the Hawks. Josh Smith and the Hawks’ topsy turvy offense (where their oversized 2, Joe Johnson, operates from the post and Smith, the 4, works as an almost Princeton-offense-like high-post distributor) can be ruthless in its working toward open threes and free throws, but an inspired Celtics defense can rip apart any machine, no matter how intricately crafted. In another series in which I am almost certainly being dumb about ignoring the home court, I see the Celtics winning in six games.

• Dallas Mavericks versus Oklahoma City Thunder: Winning an NBA championship is like having easily visible Russian prison tattoos; no matter how harmless one is toiling away as an insurance adjustor, one must always be respected, no matter how ridiculous, because of the legendary past. Yeah, the Dallas Mavericks team showing up to these playoffs looks very little like the one that did so a year ago, this time finding confusion in its depth rather than solutions, finding atrophy where veteran experience was once the term used. This isn’t a team on its last hurrah, trying to prove something; whether they’re trying isn’t even clear. And what they’re running into, this offensive wrecking ball of a team, one that sports a couple of this league’s highest volume scorers and one of its most efficient, all of whom inhabit wholly separate parts of the offense? Pundits will give respect where respect is due because, “Hey, they’re the champs.” Well, the champs lost every matchup with this Thunder team during the year, a couple convincingly so, making last year’s penultimate round  feel further and further away; while I don’t see the season series repeating itself with a sweep, I do still see the Thunder taking this in five games.

SERIES THAT MIGHT BE FUN… BUT WE KNOW WHO’S GOT THIS

• Denver Nuggets versus Los Angeles Lakers: Kenneth Faried will make all of us bow at the majesty of both his hair and dunks, and for that, we should all be eternally grateful; in fact, this entire Nuggets squad will do what it did last year all over again: blitzkrieg the unsuspecting viewers with a lot of insanely fast play punctuated by a flurry of threes and dunks, all before bowing out to a team that simply poses unfriendly matchups with them. Last year, that was OKC in an epic battle of THUNDERNUGGETS!!@@@#!!, but this time around, it’ll just be the bigs in LA taking this one in a very competitive six games.

• New York Knicks versus Miami Heat: Wow. This series has everything: the names, the cities, the epic venue, the narrative, the come back story. Too bad these guys have to actually play basketball because that will likely go a lot worse for the Knickerbockers, for which everything has been sort of falling into place over the last month. And then A’mare came back. And we start all over. Again. Whichever iteration of the Knicks shows up in Miami Saturday afternoon likely doesn’t have the chemistry or fortitude that another Tyson-Chandler-led team did last summer, and if NY’s offense operates anything like it has at all other points at which Melo and Stoudemire have shared the floor, this will be a short one, with the Heat taking this series in five games.

• Utah Jazz versus San Antonio Spurs: You remember this time last year, this situation. The Spurs had the top seed and a pass-heavy offense that took the pressure off of its older main cogs, and San Antonio ran into an imposing road block in a surging eight seed that found most of its strength inside and stole another postseason from the former dynastic crew. But this Jazz team doesn’t play defense like that Grizzlies team; in fact, it doesn’t play D like anyone in the playoffs, posting the lowest defensive efficiency of any of the 16 qualifying teams. And this Spurs team? They’re ready. Ready for a Finals run, ready to pull off a shocker, and damn sure ready to win this series in five games.

SERIES THAT WILL MOSTLY BE PLAYED ON NBA TV

• Philadelphia 76ers versus Chicago Bulls: This Bulls team, even without its dynamic scoring creator in Derrick Rose, can stop essentially any offense that can’t overpower it with raw offensive talent. The 76ers’ leading scorer comes off of the bench, and he posts less than 15 points per game. I know we’re in an age of advanced statistics, but those numbers don’t look promising.  Bulls in four games, getting those broken wing players some needed rest.

• Orlando Magic versus Indiana Pacers: The Pacers  really, really got shivved by a Heat team that didn’t care as much about a top seed as it did rest for its Big Three, as even after these four walkthroughs, Indiana’s still walking into a second-round bloodbath at the hands of a Heat team that toyed with them all season. A Bulls/Pacers second-round matchup would have provided some much-needed sparks for semis that can sometimes feel like prolonged coronation processes, but now we can only wait for the Heat to take off some heads in the next round. Ughh. Oh yeah, Pacers in four games.

Make your bets accordingly, and by that, I mean in no way take any of my advice (especially on the Code Red. That stuff is disgusting). You can read this column every Friday, and I can be followed on the regular on Twitter here. Thanks for the read.

Goran Dragic, Greg Smith, and Patrick Patterson after the jump.

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But the season wasn’t a total waste of time, just as no year before it ever is. Since Christmas we learned so much about this cast of characters—one of the league’s most eclectic collection of cultural backgrounds and differing personalities. When the season began, first year coach Kevin McHale was given a roster that featured a pouting, highly paid one dimensional player who’d eventually find himself in a mini-power struggle with the All-Star caliber point guard, and a wild pack of young, underachieving athletes trying to make Houston their place of self-resuscitation. Over half the roster had either been left for dead by a past employer or had yet to find their niche in the league. To make matters worse, all of them were too young to know the first thing about  correcting a problem they didn’t know how to identify. It wasn’t a good situation, but as the year wore on they played less like a group of individuals trying to change a personal reputation, and more like a cohesive team that trusted one another, played unselfishly on every possession, and ended up being pretty good at winning basketball games.

For whatever reason, the wheels unhinged from the wagon three quarters of its way over the season’s rickety bridge, and everybody fell off the side. The playoffs just weren’t meant to be. Here are my individual awards for a memorable season. 

Most Valuable Player: Kyle Lowry. On a team that lacks any undisputed crunch time scorer or overall “best” player, it’s very difficult to pin down who most contributed to a team’s rise and then eventual fall from grace. Before he went down with a bacterial infection in his stomach, Kyle Lowry was the closest resemblance. Continuing his unexpected ascendance from last year with a 20 point, 12 assist, seven rebound performance in this season’s opening game, Lowry looked and played the part of elite point guard for much of the season’s first few months. He was everywhere on both ends of the court, knocking down threes from 28-plus feet on a regular basis, getting into the shorts of opposing point guards, conducting an efficient offense, and taking big shot after big shot for a team that desperately needed someone to step up and assume that specific role.

I realize he didn’t play the entire season, and that the team miraculously continued to win games after he went down, and that when he returned from his injury with a few weeks left in the year, that the team’s chemistry began to come undone, but sometimes it’s too easy to remember the latest and greatest. Here’s my ode to a player who put the Rockets in a position to succeed even after he went down with the only thing that was capable of stopping his brilliant play: a freak injury.

Least Valuable Player: Kevin Martin. Given the team’s flexibility and willingness to make splashy moves—their trade chips include two first round draft picks that are probably already on the market—I’d be shocked if Kevin Martin played another game for the Houston Rockets. In order to entice a possible buyer to take Martin’s contract off his hands (think Chicago or Minnesota), Daryl Morey will most likely package the shooting guard with one of those first round picks. For reasons that are either coincidental, evident, or unfair, Martin’s entire career has coincided with losing teams. His inability to play above average defense on and off the ball combined with an offensive skill set that doesn’t involve any teammates has made him a pariah, at least in my eyes. When he went down with a shoulder injury, the Rockets didn’t appear to be in any hurry to get him back on the court. Judging from how they performed with him out, this shouldn’t be news.

Most Pleasant Surprise: Chandler Parsons. I wrote about Parsons in several articles throughout the season, so my thoughts are well known; there really isn’t much more to say. His play was shockingly steady, improving with each game he played. It’s going to be incredibly fun watching Parsons’ career develop.

The “Thank God I’m An Unrestricted Free Agent” Award: Goran Dragic. When Lowry went down, the season looked to be over. His contribution appeared to be an irreplaceable one. Then Dragic came in and, well, you saw what happened. In 27 games as a starter, the 25-year-old Slovenian averaged 18.4 points, 8.3 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. He also was ridiculously efficient, shooting 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from deep. There’s no telling whether Dragic could keep that type of insane production up with the high expectations of a full-time starter for an entire season, but if he did he’d be an All-Star. And somebody out there is probably going to pay him like one this offseason.

The “Rodney Dangerfield Award That Lacks Respect” Award: Luis Scola. From Kevin Love stepping on his face to the fact that at 6‘9”, he was forced to thanklessly play center for 17% of the team’s total minutes this season (according to 82games.com), all anyone could say about Luis Scola’s season was that his numbers hadn’t improved from last year. Yes, they took a slight dip, but the toughness a player like Scola exudes is unquantifiable when it matriculates throughout the culture of an entire organization. Ignore his contract for just a second: Luis Scola is a man’s man.

The Would-Be Savior Who Had Too Much Asked Of Him Award: Marcus Camby. When the Rockets sent Jonny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet—two players who arguably possess less value than a grapefruit flavored car freshener—to Portland for Marcus Camby, my initial reaction was “WHAT a brilliant move.” All season long the team’s defensive metric figures would plummet whenever Sam Dalembert headed to the bench, and with Dalembert playing less than 25 minutes per game, another rim protector was needed if this team had any chance at making noise in the postseason. Camby played well enough to not only fill the void Dalembert left whenever he wasn’t playing, he took his starting spot. Unfortunately for the Rockets, Camby is 38-years-old. The pressures extolled on him by both opposing players and his own team were simply too much for the old guy to handle. He can still be productive, just make sure it’s in a lessened role.

The Most Frustrating Arc of Development Award: Patrick Patterson. There are a few players I’d like to put here. Marcus Morris being badly outperformed by his own team’s second round pick and twin brother (who actually had a very productive rookie season in Phoenix), and Chase Budinger—who was demoted at the beginning of the season—were two that partly thwarted this team from achieving what it could have. But the far and away leader in the clubhouse for this award would have to be Patrick Patterson. Heading into this season, he hit the ground running with surgically repaired ankles and a whole bunch of expectations. Not the best combination. As his playing time increased, his offensive efficiency numbers went in the opposite direction. It’s no fun saying this, but for now our expectations for Patrick Patterson are to be tempered until further notice.

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles 

I started a post last night with the intent of dissecting the ‘Scola at the 5’ lineups in comparison to the other frontcourt options the team had.  NBA.com has production breakdowns of every lineup combination for every team’s roster so I was looking into Scola-Patterson.  I got overwhelmed and gave up.  There was just simply too much information available.  Lazy of me, I know, but I didn’t feel like spending an hour dissecting that stuff.  But it’s all out there, and statistically at least, the Rockets know if that lineup decision McHale made so often actually hurt the team.  From a visual observation standpoint, at least, it seemed to me–and I would think the majority of you–that it killed them.

I don’t think the scenario that brings Dwight Howard to Houston is that far-fetched given what we know.  Thus far, everything has fallen into place with it looking like the Magic will have to deal him.  The only real fear is some dark horse suitor–like Portland–emerging at the 11th hour.  At this moment, of the teams that reportedly had had interest in a rental, Houston looks to be able to offer the best package.

After vehemently endorsing a tank job in preseason, I wrote around mid-year that the Rockets, after racing too far ahead of the pack, absolutely had to make the playoffs to avert a potential PR disaster.  They didn’t and, as expected, it’s happening.  Three straight years at 14 sounds really, really bad.  I don’t typically preach ‘making a move for the hell of it’ but the team might just have to do that to assuage the public.

Did you know Dwyane Wade is 30?  I didn’t.  I knew he was at least 28, but 30?  Why are people saying the Heat have a huge window?  They have like, 2 years left, max.  I guess there’s something to playing with your friends, but if Lebron had chosen the Bulls, they might have won 7 straight titles.

I cleared out my 7-9 tonight in anticipation of watching Clippers-Knicks.  I didn’t know Chris Paul wouldn’t be playing.  As I just tweeted, this is like watching Julia Roberts when you thought you were getting Salma Hayek.

I don’t have time these days to watch every playoff game as I did in the past.  So I have to ration accordingly.  But I intend to watch every game of Clippers-Grizzlies, a matchup that will put in my opinion the best player in the NBA in Chris Paul against maybe the most well balanced team with the most feared defender geared up to hound the former.  Apart from that, I’m not sure I even plan to watch much of any of the other series’ unless its right in front of me.  I’m just hoping Chicago faces Miami at some point as well as LA against LA.

The Rockets won, improving their playoff odds to higher than the 2.3% it stood at this afternoon.  We’ll need to keep an eye on the development with Phoenix and Utah, but for tonight, in my eyes, the big story was the benching of Kyle Lowry. The team’s former MVP did not see a single minute in the second half.  We asked McHale about this and, as you just heard, he responded, he was “just trying to win a game.”  We did not get a chance to talk to Kyle.

Also interesting were McHale’s comments on Marcus Morris.  They provide a little bit of insight into why Morris may not have gotten much time this season. If you joined me on Twitter, I raved about Morris’ offensive arsenal after the forward scored six points in the second quarter including a beautiful turnaround from the corner.  I asked McHale about Morris’ stint tonight, expecting a positive response, but instead, he pointed out the mental errors the rookie forward made on the defensive end.

I see offense.  But McHale, needing to win, can’t afford defensive miscues. Mental lapses might be the one thing coaches tolerate least.  That’s why guys like Shane Battier and Patrick Patterson (this year) are still held in such high esteem despite their apparent offensive inabilities.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Lowry.  Tonight, combined with the shouting match during the Denver game, combined with the Dragic free agency situation makes me think it’s a safe bet Kyle will be dealt in the offseason.

For just a second, try to ignore the connection between merit and losing that exists in today’s NBA. Ignore any good that comes by virtue of tanking. Ignore draft picks, renovation, and hope. What I want to do is forget about the future, and analyze what just happened. Before their loss in New Orleans on Thursday night, I said on Twitter all week that I believed the Rockets were mortal locks to make the postseason. The idea was unpopular, but after watching almost every game this team played all year, it seemed more than likely. These guys weren’t a typical annual feel good story line; pawns straggling along in some hopeless underdog narrative. Yes, they faced tons of adversity, and defied almost every conceivable odd in doing so, but regardless this team was good. They played hard, they played together, and they played with more talent than they’ll probably ever be recognized for. 

It got me thinking about the type of things 29 fan bases collectively ponder at the end of every season. Questions like, “Why did my team have to lose?” Except in Houston’s case, what I’m interested in learning is how they managed to collapse the way they did. On an all encompassing, cerebral level, it’s a question that has no one answer and no indisputable truth. For example, the Rockets were terrible in the third quarter in almost all of those games, yet not even Kevin McHale could explain with 100% certainty why this was.

What follows can best be described as my difficult attempt at scratching the surface in explaining what the hell happened to this basketball team. We’ll start the analysis on April 2; 10 games ago. The Rockets had just come back to defeat a tough, uber-territorial Bulls squad  and were on the cusp of a sudden four game win streak that would memorably be aided three nights later by Andrew Bynum’s unmellowed attitude towards their bench.

At the time they were 29-25, and feeling good about where things were headed. Then on April 11, their playoffs before the playoffs began. Over the next week the Rockets played five games against four teams that were all fighting for three playoff spots. The situation was dense, but far from uncomfortable. Houston had been playing well despite seeing various key members of their team drop like flies throughout the season, and it appeared they were well adjusted to the personnel they had. Here are some of the most noticeable extremes that happened in those last 10 games.

1) They didn’t get to the free-throw line. With no consistent presence on the interior apart from Luis Scola (who in my opinion remains underrated), the Rockets were never confused with an elite team that gets to the free-throw line. Speedy Goran Dragic has the ability to draw contact better than almost every player in the league, but he’s human, and the toll his relatively small frame took dancing in the lane simply wasn’t sustainable. The Rockets lived and died on jump shots and threes.

They ranked 27th over the last 10 games in free-throw rate, meaning their free-throws attempted relative to their field goals attempted was flat out awful. In games like this, where possession after possession becomes more and more important, the free-throw line is THE place to live. Throughout the season this was a problem for the team (they’re currently ranked right after Dallas at 28th) and as I mentioned earlier, personnel is clearly an issue…but come on. The fact of the matter is that these games were physical battles, and if it took guys expanding upon their own comfort levels to get wins, then that’s what needed to be done. Obviously, that didn’t happen.

2) They didn’t turn the ball over: This makes explaining their losses quite difficult. The Rockets were the second best team in the entire league over the course of these last 10 games when it came to hanging onto the ball, a crucial component in deciding who wins and who loses. It was something they were below average at during the year (they now rank 17th, and that takes into account those last 10 games of super careful play), so for them to lose six straight while improving on an underlying weakness just adds insult to injury.

Of course, holding onto the ball is great, but the name of the game is putting it through the hoop, and the Rockets posted a true shooting percentage of 51.9% which placed them just above the Wizards and Nets for 22nd in the league. Also, despite their great security, they somehow managed to give up 15.3 fast break points per game; a stat that suggests some things just aren’t meant to be.

3) Their defense was awful: The offense averaged 1.03 PPP, putting them ahead of Miami, and just behind Oklahoma City and Boston in terms of efficiency, but the defense was another story. With teams who were capable of going with small lineups to keep Dalembert on the bench (i.e. Denver) the defense suffered mightily. In the 10 games they ranked 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and were a general mess, especially in the paint, where they surrendered 45.1 points, the third highest in the league.

4) They played at their pace: The Rockets are generally one of the faster teams in the league. They have youth, speed, and no ball-dominating isolation players; restricting the first two characteristics wouldn’t make any sense. They run, they gun. Over their last 10 games, the only thing that changed was they got a little faster. This might attribute to their inability to get to the free-throw line a bit, but overall it should be seen as a positive that they didn’t deviate from their style during the season’s most important stretch of action.

So what does this all say about the team’s collapse? They either picked a really bad time to revert to who they really are, or a bad time to play below what they showed throughout the season to be their potential. Either way, bad timing is bad timing. Say what you want about draft picks, and how now we don’t have to give our first rounder to Brooklyn, but a gigantic opportunity was missed here. Making the playoffs and winning a couple games (who knows, maybe even a series, and then anything can happen) is a positive experience that lasts inside each and every player—most of these guys are young, and getting them to play together in games of upgraded significance is an unquantifiable step in the right direction.

Everyone will have their own explanation for why this Rockets team didn’t qualify for an honest to goodness up-for-grabs tournament to the championship (I didn’t even mention Marcus Camby’s health which was undeniably significant) but one thing  is for sure: in an undivided culture filled with people who’d rather look forward to a hopeful tomorrow than enjoy a fruitful today, this one really hurts.

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles

Photo courtesy of ben mathews via Flickr.

Quick programming notice for those who’ve seen the “Notes on a String”: I’m going to be shifting this column’s nature over to that of an all-purpose notebook column, more like the “Rockets Daily” column of olden times. Now that you’ve been reprogrammed, read up.

• In a sweet bit of formality amidst a year full of informal sabotage, Dwight Howard finally decided to be a sweetheart and kill this season after slowly torturing it like a Takashi Miike villain in every face-palmingly obtuse way possible by shutting dow n his season thanks to back surgery. Firstly, the Indiana Pacers may thank their lucky stars that, though they may have only had to face a Magic team that was such (a team) in name only, they avoided even a diluted, half-hearted version of this league’s second-best player, given the matchup problems Howard has created for Indiana’s Ent-like Roy Hibbert thanks to his speed and agility in comparison to Hibbert’s… not those things. Secondly, at least Van Gundy will get to go out with his head held high, unworried about stepping on the notoriously fragile toes of this organization’s “franchise player” (who has shown no interest in this franchise beyond this obligatory upcoming year) and free to rant, fulminate and generally stew on the Orlando sideline to his heart’s content while wondering which new team he’ll have overachieving come next winter. Most importantly, though, is the actual reasoning behind all of this; the difference between a self firebombing and an actual back injury, the kind that lingers for years and hinders mobility to no end (which fans of both Houston and this Orlando team probably know), is vast and could change the future of not just this team, but this league. Either the league’s best big man has been injured in a way that might permanently affect his game and impact, or the league’s biggest primadonna just pulled one of the most brazen power moves in recent sports history; either way, this announcement mattered more than an impact on the outcome a series between a three and six seed.

• The Houston freefall has been less than fun, but hey, at least this feels familiar, right? That entire month of Dragic looking so calm and collected in the waning minutes of a barnburner felt so… foreign, a far cry from the generally frantic scurrying involved in Rockets clutch-time possessions. Tripping over itself against a team almost certainly hurting its own interests by beating Houston seems entirely more apropos.

• Andre Drummond is a very large, very talented young man; Harrison Barnes and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist look like very different kinds of the future at the wing position, one at which the Rockets have been desperately since the departure of Tracy McGrady’s athleticism, which preceded the departure of Mac himself by a few years. This year might be stacked enough that when a franchise picking in the top 10 inevitably finds itself looking at picking someone too early to avoid roster redundancy, shipping a couple of picks in the middle of this same talent-stuffed draft along with a contributor on a cheap or expiring contract could be good enough to bring back someone with serious star potential. For those Rockets fans still dressing their wounds from the numerous bruises accumulated along the bumpy, sudden fall out of the playoff picture, all of this draft talk may be coming too soon, but this particular draft may provide Houston with the organic chance at a star that this team’s avidly chased for about three years.

• Though Jeremy Lin’s emergence this year frustrated some in Houston who were under the misguided notion he’d have gotten anything close to the chance or specific opportunity that he got in New York thanks to a complete vacuum at the point guard position, nothing about it appeared particularly germane to life as a follower of the Rockets, at least no more than it should have to any fan of an NBA team; however, the rise of Steve Novak is a different matter altogether. He’s second in the league in true shooting percentage, which is less than surprising given his 47% from distance (GAH… 47 fricking percent! Actually a real number), but he can now play more than three or four minutes at a time without his team literally imploding from the lack of defense, something that forced Jeff Van Gundy, who’s gone on record as saying that Novak has the best jumpshot JVG’s ever seen, to never play the 6’10″ “power forward”. Apparently, Novocaine’s even becoming respectable on that end of the court. Plus, he’s submarining the Rockets’ chance at even better picks with each made three-pointer that helps the Knicks tally another W. So…much…ambivalence…

• Picking the Western Conference feels like the damn NCAA Tournament at this point. Grizz, Clippers, Lake Show… they all seem like contenders at this point. Hmmm… this would probably be a good year to get a cushy low-playoff seed and see what happens. Maybe the Rockets could… oh yeah.

That’s all for now, kinfolk. You can read this column every Friday, and I can be followed on the regular on Twitter here. Thanks for the read.

But being a great athlete doesn’t guarantee playing time, nor does it make you a useful basketball player. After starting this season being relegated from “starting small forward” to “occasional guy off the bench”, Budinger has struggled to find a consistent job with the team, and given his noticeable on-the-ball defensive flaws, it was pertinent he mold a specific skill set and fit himself into one of the roles that every consistently successful team has.

In his third year with Houston, Budinger realized that for him to get minutes he’d need to excel at something new, and right now he’s doing it. Instead of filling in as the well-rounded glue guy we expected him to be before the season started (a position Chandler Parsons has admirably taken), Budinger has come into his own as one of the most consistent three-point shooters in the entire league.

Here are a few statistics to show just how tightly the three ball has been braided with  Budinger’s strengths this season.

• Last season his percentage of points scored on three-pointers was 34.9%. This year it’s at 46.3%, and climbing. This number is higher than J.J. Redick, Klay Thompson, Anthony Morrow, and Mo Williams. That’s how one-dimensional Budinger’s been (which isn’t meant as an insult).
• 125 of his 168 spot up jumpers have been from behind the three-point line (where he’s shooting 43.2%).
• He’s making 47.3% of his threes from the corner. When you factor in the number of attempts, Budinger is behind only Ray Allen in terms of efficiency shooting from that spot.
• In his last 10 games he’s averaged five attempts from downtown per game, which is what the likes of Ray Allen, Kevin Durant, and Kobe Bryant have been doing all season.
• 14 of his 39 made baskets in transition have been three-pointers, and he’s shooting 48.3% from deep when Houston’s attacking defenses off a missed basket or a forced turnover.

Moving forward as a member of the second unit that could always use a scoring punch, Budinger has shot the ball well enough to deserve more specific after time-out (ATO) plays drawn up specifically to get him wide open three-pointers—misdirections and stagger screens. Think Kyle Korver or Ray Alen. Also, utilizing Budinger more off screens instead of strictly as a spot up shooter from the corner or in transition would only help the team in ways that indirectly open things up for others. The threat of shooting the three is great, but actually receiving those three points is better. Budinger stretches the floor, making the game easier and greatly increasing opportunity for various penetrators like Goran Dragic, Kyle Lowry, Chandler Parsons, and Courtney Lee.

About a month ago on ESPN’s NBA Today Podcast, David Thorpe said NBA coaches like to treat their players like chess pieces, which is to say they want consistent strengths and consistent weaknesses on a nightly basis. Without debating the merits of whether or not that’s good or bad in terms of restricting both their player’s various abilities and their team’s chances of winning, if Kevin McHale can trust Chase Budinger as his most dangerous three-point shooting option it makes game planning for opponents MUCH easier. It also cuts out some of the negative parts of Budinger’s game that might result in wasted offensive possessions. For example, from 5-9 feet this season he’s shooting 21.9%. He’s also absolutely grotesque in isolation, scoring three of an attempted 14 shots in that situation this season.

When you watch the Rockets play, don’t you expect the ball to fall through the net each time Budinger cocks the ball over his right eye and launches one of his perfectly formed shots from deep? He’s become so successful to the point where not having him on the court in both clutch and end of quarter situations could be a major restriction on Houston’s offensive production. Given the loss last night, and their general disappointing play in the past week, it’s questionable whether or not the Rockets make the playoffs. But if they do, Budinger and his game-changing shot could be the difference in whether or not they’re capable of knocking somebody off.

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles

Dirk finished with 35 after scoring just 4 points in the first half.  Vince Carter turned back the clock, keeping Dallas in it in the first half, including a pair of uncontested dunks.  Jason Terry was Jason Terry and Jason Kidd hit some timely 3′s.

The good guys were led by Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee who combined for 36 points.  Luis Scola (18 points) had some beautiful moves inside.  But the most impressive contributor by far was Marcus Camby, listed as a game-time decision, who logged 37 grueling minutes, grimacing in pain with each motion.  The old man finished with 17 boards in total, adding to my amazement and cementing the axiom that gifted specialists are the one breed which enjoy longevity in basketball.

As things technically aren’t completely over, I’ll save the brunt of the big picture discussion for next week.  (You never want to be the guy writing the obituary for the dead guy that wakes up in the operating room.)  But I share your frustration. What can you really do?  The only thing that saves what has transpired this past week as going down as the most epic collapse in Houston sports history is the fact that sadly, it didn’t even really matter: no one gave them a chance in the postseason to begin with and most in the city didn’t even care.

I’m searching for a silver lining but there really are none to be found.  Bill and Bull ‘explained’ after the game that experiences like this were necessary and that from it, the team would grow and get better, a sentiment with which I heartily disagree.  ’Learning experiences’ are the story for teams with cemented nucleus’ (nuclei?) around which they plan to build around and keep for the long haul. That’s not the case here where it’s up in the air if even the two biggest contributors will return and pretty much any and everyone will be on the block.

But there will be plenty of time for reflection upon this season once it officially ends.

For now, the team gets back at it at New Orleans tonight.  It probably doesn’t matter.

Those of us who spend our times pretty closely attached to the pro game of basketball have heard from our counterparts in the scouting scene that this year’s upcoming NBA Draft would be the kind that could yield a buffet of possible stars and permanent rotation players, the kind of haul not seen since LeBron and Co. gave about six teams franchise players on one day. The possibility of a pair of picks in the middle of the draft this year appears to be a much more exciting possibility than it may have been a year ago, but only the Knicks’ now-sure-to-be 15th pick can be certainly handed to Houston; a playoff spot, as most readers now know, will confer Houston’s first-rounder to the Nets, thanks to some shoddy Terrence Williams-related decision making (to be fair, most thinking associated with Williams isn’t the best). Adding in the possible Dallas pick (unlikely as it’s top-20-protected, meaning its falling to the Rockets probably won’t happen and, een if it did, would almost certainly necessitate a victory over Houston tonight), that’s three possible first-round picks for one of the league’s premier talent evaluators in one of the best drafts in ages. And why might we pass this up?

Most of us are calling it veteran experience, but what it comes down to is a little bit of hope. This fanbase has seen this story two years in a row, and three might be pushing the resiliency of an already flimsy group of followers (Not you guys. Reading this pretty much negates you from that group). All any of these fans want are a few games in which Houston looks capable against a title contender, a home win or two, a little bit of payoff for all of those stay-at-home Thursday nights that could have been spent relating better to significant others, going out with friends or generally bettering ourselves. Not that this game doesn’t always provide us with something great, but the playoffs… they’re different, and this fanbase knows it.

Just remember, there are options here, and if in late June you find yourself wondering what could have been as Arnett Moultrie or Austin Rivers or Perry Jones slip down the draft board, remember how much fun that one night in May was. As fans, the memories have to be worth as much to us, or what is any of it for?

The Suns have games remaining against OKC, the Clippers, Denver, the Jazz, and the Spurs, a ‘who’s who’ murderer’s row of opponents.  Except for that last game where one would expect Pops to rest his big guns, one could easily see Phoenix drop all of those matchups.  But that still leaves Denver, Dallas, and Utah to compete with Houston for the last three spots.

The Jazz have a joke of a schedule remaining, headlined by two with the Aldridge-less Blazers and one with the Howard-less Magic.  Their only true test left is against Phoenix.

The Mavs have games left against Houston, Golden State, Chicago, and Atlanta.  Who knows what to make of that…will the Bulls have the #1 seed locked up?  Will the Hawks still be fighting out the 4-5-6?  These things are too difficult to forecast.

Finally, the Nuggets close out with the Clippers, Suns, Magic, Thunder, and Timberwolves.  That schedule is a tossup.

After an embarrassing week, the Rockets also don’t own the tiebreaker against any of these other clubs.  So here we are, hoping for the best when a week ago the team controlled it’s own destiny.  So it goes for the Rockets this season.  One probably should not have expected anything less.

click to enlarge

I asked on Twitter yesterday if any of you would support a decision to bench Kyle Lowry and roll with the lineup that knocked off the Bulls and Lakers for these final games.  After all – desperate times call for drastic measures.  The team has looked completely out of sync since Lowry’s return with players no longer seeming to know their roles in this new rotation.  Where before, Dragic was the undisputed ball-controller, things seem to have bogged down.  The question was posed tongue-in-cheek but to my surprise, the majority of you responded affirmatively.  Rest assured, that won’t happen.  As one reader put it, the long-term benefits of playing Lowry far exceed any short term potential gain.  Besides, if you bench him now, you lose him forever.

The more interesting scenario would involve bringing back Kevin Martin, a move I would fully endorse.  Why not?  The argument against, for these past few weeks, was that his return would throw off the chemistry this rotation had developed.  However, with Lowry’s return already causing that damage, there’s probably nothing left to lose by bringing back the other backcourt opening day starter.

If I’m McHale, I’d bring back Martin and create two separate quintets.  I’d start Dragic, Lee, Parsons, Camby, and Scola, the group that beat the Lakers and Bulls, and play them together in the first and first half of the third.  I’d then bring off the bench, as one complete unit, Lowry, Martin, Budinger, Dalembert, and Patterson to play the second, latter half of the third and former half of the fourth.  (The ironic part about that second group is that four of the five players were opening day starters.)

I pose this suggestion more in jest but I’m sure it would have its merits.  As I said, why not at this point?  You keep in tact groups that have played together and instill some sense of accountability.  The group that plays the best gets to close out the fourth quarter.  Good thing I’m not an NBA coach or ideas like playing Luis Scola at the ‘5’ would seem tame in comparison..

Speaking of, that was all the talk after Monday night’s loss as Kevin McHale once again closed with two power forwards.  From Twitter, to the radio airwaves, to the pages of the Internet, loyalists everywhere screamed in frustration over the decision that has seemingly lost so many games.  I’d like to one day ask Daryl Morey his thoughts on the lineup and whether it’s value is affirmed by any stretch of numbers because, from the naked eye, it seems to have brought nothing but evil.

I did notice the other night, digging for something, via 82games, that Patrick Patterson leads the entire NBA in crunch time +/-, for whatever that’s worth.  So there’s that.  (The team is a -3.2 overall with the Patterson/Scola lineup.  I don’t seem to have any 2-man crunch time stats.)  They want Patterson in there for his keen sense of defensive rotations, a decision I agree with.  But paired with Scola, it’s difficult to watch.  Still, I can’t fault McHale too much on that call as a center probably would not have fared well guarding Al Harrington on the perimeter.

Speaking of Patterson, the last sophomore slump this bad that I can remember is when the guy that sat in front of me in 10th grade Algebra opted not to retake his mid-term when given the chance–after making a 33–because “it ain’t worth it.”

At this rate, with Marcus Morris also already sidelined, one hopes the Rockets have better luck with this year’s #14.

I’m now seriously starting to wonder if it might be better to just keep our pick rather than back into the playoffs by default.  I just don’t know at this point.  Knowing this team, I could see them, after all of this, still upsetting Oklahoma City in the first round.  Nothing would shock me at this point.

Goran Dragic and Chandler Parsons led the way for the good guys with 21 apiece.  Courtney Lee chipped in 18.  For the Nugets, Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson combined for 51.

After the game, many wondered why Sam Dalembert, after having blocked 7 shots up to that point, did not see time in the final frame.  Kevin McHale closed the game with a lineup of Dragic-Lee-Parsons-Patterson-Scola, or, more amiably known around these parts as “Scola at the 5.”  I sort of understand the decision.  I discovered earlier tonight, via some snooping on 82games.com that Patterson leads the entire league in crunch time +/-; and of course it makes sense to send out Scola to fill the need for a post threat.  Still, it seems nothing good has ever come from this lineup.  If the team misses the postseason, we will not forget its evil.

Most interesting was Kyle Lowry’s absence from the game in the deciding minutes.  To be honest, his return seems to have been a factor in the team’s poor play.  A unit that was once in sync no longer seems to have defined roles…

Matt Bullard mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Rockets shouldn’t just bring in Marcus Morris and immediately run ISO plays for him.  It’s not possible for me to disagree any more with that statement.  As I’ve explained in the past, Morris’ only value to the team is as a one-on-one scorer.  That’s why they drafted him and why they hope to convert him to the ‘3’.  He isn’t a player like Chandler Parsons or Patrick Patterson who can be on the floor and help the team in other ways.  It’s a waste of everyone’s time having him out there and not feeding him the ball.  In the third, when Marcus Camby went out (more on this below), the team’s offense completely fell apart.  It’s too late this year, but without a star on the roster, a scorer like Morris is the type of guy the team needs to implement into its lineup going forward.  In the clip above, we see Morris make two big-time NBA moves.  First, he pivots and spins into a turnaround, hitting a shot that noone on this roster–Scola included–has in their arsenal.  Next, he comes down, smoothly crosses over and nails the pull-up jumper, demonstrating that the hard work he has put in on his ball-handling has paid off.  The points came in garbage time and were meaningless.  But they are a small glimpse of what Morris can provide.  Without isolation options in the lineup, the Rockets are forced to explore paths like Patterson in the post; teams can’t run motion sets every trip down.  Hopefully next year, Morris will get his chance.

• As I mentioned above, the team fell apart when Camby exited.  It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but watching things closely, perhaps just simply due to the dropoff, I think Camby’s greater value to this team is on the offensive end.  McHale likes to position him at the free throw line and bring Dragic around a pick; after the pass-back, Camby plays quarterback, feeding teammates from the high post.  With Dalembert in the game, the Rockets have the center roll to the hoop as he can’t make those same passes.  The only problem is that Bert is no Amare Stoudemire and hence you see some of the problems the team faces offensively at the ‘5’.
• Speaking of Dally, I wrote last week “to get used to the Camby/Dally” duo and that the team couldn’t be getting much better than this combo.  I have to take this back.  Dally’s drastic dropoff since the demotion combined with Dragic’s increased pricetag points towards the team likely waiving the former this summer.  Depending on other variables (draft picks, Motiejunas), without Dalembert, the team could have roughly $12million of wiggle room with which to manufacture a trade.  Bringing him back would bring them down to around $5million.  Given his recent play, and the increasing confidence in Camby, I think the braintrust will opt to just give Greg Smith his shot.
• I do still think the team will make the postseason.  Hey, they are what they are.  A pretty good team that’s not as good as they have looked at times.  It’s frustrating but it’s a reminder why one should not live off the highs and lows of the streaks within a season.  The bigger concern is the club’s upward trajectory and path to improvement, a topic I’ve harped on ad nauseum at Red94.  I’ll spare you the rant for now until May rolls around.
• The Rockets will give it another shot tonight at Toyota Center against those same Nuggets.

The last time I used the liveblog plugin I plan to use tonight, the site crashed. But we’ll try again.  If things work, the page will update on its own with new thoughts, as they happen.  Fingers crossed.  Join me at 7, tonight.

UPDATE: I believe you have to refresh the page to see new updates.

From my vantage point, this game was lost because, in the third quarter, the Rockets stopped running the high screen and roll with which they usually have success.  Kevin McHale said that the Suns began packing the paint with what he called “a soft shell.”  As the Rockets did not hit shots, the Suns stayed in the shell.  I asked Goran about this after the game, but his response did not offer much clarity: he said that he had to make the pass after coming off the screen as the Suns were trapping him with two players.

In the first quarter, the Rockets would run Dragic around a Camby high-post screen.  Dragic would then either get all the way to the lane or kick back out to Camby who would initiate from the high post.  Camby would then either find a cutter–sometimes Dragic–or swing it to a flashing Luis Scola, either in the post or on the wing.  It was textbook Rockets basketball.

In the third, the Rockets completely went away from this, running various ISO sets, sometimes even posting up Patrick Patterson.  It’s when the team is at its worst.  I still don’t understand what happened.  Why do they go away from the motion offense?  I didn’t see any adjustment by the defense that warranted the switch.  Weren’t they trapping the point guard all along?

In any event, after a 4-0 road trip, the Rockets lose another backbreaker at home.  If they miss the postseason, they’ll have only themselves to blame.  They control their own destiny at this point.

The Rockets again, like Wednesday night, made a furious comeback, but it was for naught.  They got back into it with a small ball lineup that allowed them to work the ball around the perimeter after an initial Dragic-Scola pick and roll.  Chase Budinger and Chandler Parsons did damage from the wings.

While the lineup did bring the Rockets back, the team had zero paint protection as they gave up some costly points in the paint near the end.  “Scola at the 5” worked on one end but hurt on the other.  Still, it’s probably hard to blame the coaching decision as that lineup did bring the Rockets back into the game.

Marcus Camby had probably the oddest stat line of the game, grabbing 18 rebounds in the first half, but zero in the second.  In fact, he didn’t see a minute in the fourth quarter.  After the game, he said it was the coach’s decision.

The team must now find a way to regroup after yet another backbreaking loss to a playoff contender.  They will have to find ways to beat the Nuggets, Hornets, Mavs, or Heat. Luckily, they take to the road where perhaps, they find greatest comfort.

The other major storyline in this one was the battle of mentor-mentee in front of a national audience for a final playoff spot.  Nash, at 38, clawing for a last chance, against Dragic, beginning his career as a star, trying to lead his team to the second season.  Nash finished with 18 and 10 assists.  Dragic had 22 and 7.

Watching closely, the contrast in styles was evident.  Both players were masterful in the pick and roll, but Dragic would bull his way to the hoop with long strides while Nash would get crafty with a low dribble.  Late in the first half, when Phoenix ran its offense from the high key through Nash, allowing him to hit cutters with one handed standing passes, one could see how far Dragic would have to go.  Nash is a two time MVP for a reason.

On one particular play in the third, Nash drove and pushed off Dragic with a stiff forearm, sending him to the floor.  He then nailed a jumper.  At the other end, Dragic drove, stepped back, faked the shot drawing Nash off his feet, and then leaned in for the scoop shot, drawing the foul.  The pair were an absolute joy to watch.

April 13, 2012 7:18 PM Camby swats away a Gortat turnaround in the paint.  Gortat’s first possession of the game

April 13, 2012 7:19 PM Both teams are running the same high screen and roll offense right now.  The score is 10-9.

April 13, 2012 7:20 PM This time down the floor, the Rockets use Parsons on the high screen and roll rather than Dragic.  The second-rounder demonstrates his versatility, dribbling smoothly around and then finding an open Luis Scola in the corner for the jumpshot.  The Suns call timeout.  When a 6’10 small forward can run the pick and roll effectively, it gives you options.

April 13, 2012 7:25 PM Camby plays at the high post on every possession.  This time we see why.  Dragic comes off the high screen and flips it back out to Camby.  Camby then feeds a cutting Dragic for the layin.  On the ensuing possession, Camby dumped in a floater from a few feet closer.

April 13, 2012 7:26 PM Marcus Camby’s fingerprints are all over this game so far.  6 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists.  4:28 still remaining.  Has any trade deadline pickup had a bigger impact?  I know some will say Gerald Wallace but….well…it’s the Nets.

April 13, 2012 7:28 PM The Rockets have based pretty much every offensive possession of this game off of the same set so far tonight: Dragic/Camby screen and roll.

April 13, 2012 7:29 PM The Suns offense has markedly changed from how they started.  No more screen and roll.  They are now positioning Nash near the elbow and running cutters through the lane.  He is hitting them with one handed passes.  I guess you have the luxury to do that when your point guard is a future Hall of Famer.

April 13, 2012 7:30 PM Grant Hill’s shoes are bright orange.

April 13, 2012 7:36 PM Patrick Patterson makes perhaps the first impressive post move of his two year career, spinning away from his defender and fading away.

April 13, 2012 7:37 PM Markief Morris at the line shooting two.  As Marcus Morris looks on.

April 13, 2012 7:38 PM Forgot to mention that Wade Philips is in the house but did not draw near the ovation a reigning Coach of the Year would deserve.  Oh…Kubiak won it?….Oh….

April 13, 2012 7:39 PM Lowry has been in at point for Dragic for the past few possessions.  He hasn’t gotten to the rim as easily as Dragic did.  But they’ve looked to Patterson on the baseline.  The team is basically running the same offense with Lowry/Patterson as they had with Dragic/Scola.  38-year-old Marcus Camby in the high post has been the only constant.

April 13, 2012 7:43 PM Michael Redd nails a jumper.  The Cavs could have used that in 2004.

April 13, 2012 7:44 PM Michael Redd hits another.  I’ve seen this script before.  It didn’t end well…

April 13, 2012 7:45 PM Sebastian Telfair in now at point guard for Steve Nash.  Despite what you thought of him in Through the Fire, this is a dropoff…

April 13, 2012 7:46 PM Dalembert and Lowry are in at the 1-5.  The Rockets have not run a single screen and roll this quarter.  Chandler Parsons skies in for the one handed layin attempt; Markieff Morris blocks it; Marcus Morris looks on.

April 13, 2012 7:48 PM All of the Rockets’ points this quarter have come in transition or on breakdowns.  Not a single screen and roll.  (8:35 remaining in the 2nd.)  They looked infinitely better with Dragic-Camby, though I think more of that had to do with Camby than Dragic vs. Lowry.

April 13, 2012 7:52 PM Redd has taken like 20 shots already.

April 13, 2012 7:53 PM The Rockets now have both point guards in the game together with Dalembert at the ‘5’.  They run their first Dalembert screen and roll and Bert rolls to the hoop for the dunk attempt and gets fouled.  They never have Camby actually roll.

April 13, 2012 7:54 PM I have no idea how the Suns have managed to keep this game close with Steve Nash on the bench.  The Rockets will look back on this if they lose.

April 13, 2012 7:57 PM Michael Redd has now taken 30 shots in this ball-game.

April 13, 2012 7:58 PM Camby throws in an offensive board.  Now with 10 points, 13 boards, 4 assists, and 3 blocks.  5 minutes still remaining.  In the half.

April 13, 2012 8:03 PM Dragic just schooled his mentor, driving, stepping back out, pump faking the jumper and leaning in for the shot attempt.  Got fouled.  Beautiful play.  His one on one skills are hugely underrated.  Slovenian Manu?

April 13, 2012 8:04 PM Old man Camby now has 17 boards.  4 minutes remaining here in the 1st half.

April 13, 2012 8:05 PM 3:24 remaining in the second and the Rockets lead just 45-43.  Feels like a rout. No idea how Phoenix has kept this close.

April 13, 2012 8:07 PM I never noticed this before, but the Rockets rarely run screen and rolls with Lowry.  Was this the case before the injury and Camby trade?  I can’t remember.  They’re almost running two completely different offenses depending on who is running point guard.

April 13, 2012 8:10 PM The Rockets run a high screen and roll with Lowry who finds Budinger in the corner–his sweet spot–for a ‘3’.

April 13, 2012 8:12 PM Jared Dudley nails a 3 from the corner giving him 13.  I didn’t realize he was this good.  As I type that, Lowry answers from the corner with a triple of his own.

April 13, 2012 8:14 PM Last play of the half, Lowry comes off a Camby pick and

second half

April 13, 2012 8:38 PM 9 minutes remaining in the 3rd.  I stayed in the press room too long.  The Suns are now up 2.  What happened while I was gone?

April 13, 2012 8:39 PM 65-61 now, Suns.  The Rockets will be kicking themselves if they let this one get away.

April 13, 2012 8:47 PM Scola with 12 right now.  He’s going to have to be able to kill the likes of Channing Frye for the Rockets to have a chance in the Western Conference playoffs.  He’s the only thing they have even remotely resembling an inside presence.

April 13, 2012 8:48 PM Lee hits a bailout jumper but the Rockets’ offense has really looked discombobulated here, a far cry from the precision with which they worked in the first quarter.  They seem to have abandoned the high screen and roll with Dragic/Camby which had been working so well.

April 13, 2012 8:48 PM What is this rendition of “Jump” that they play here during jumpballs?  That’s not Kriss Kross.

April 13, 2012 8:49 PM Dragic forces up a 3 and misses.  The offense has looked awful here in the third.

April 13, 2012 8:52 PM The Rockets post Patterson up on Frye and he turns around and misses.  The offense has looked absolutely horrendous.  Why have they gone away from the high screen and roll?  Everything has been isolation.  The Rockets can only win with movement, either player or ball.

April 13, 2012 8:53 PM Courtney Lee comes off a Patterson screen and Patterson is called for the offensive foul.  Where is the high screen and roll?  It’s now 74-67.

April 13, 2012 8:57 PM I’d be willing to bet that if you pulled the video of every single Rockets loss this year, or even every dry spell, you’d see that the correlating factor was a lack of movement.  This is not an isolation team.  They must move to score.  When they play one on one, everything falls apart.  Even Scola postups are at their best when they come at the end of some dish-off, rather than as a set entity.

April 13, 2012 8:58 PM The Rockets play fabulous defense on this play with Kyle Lowry denying Steve Nash the ball.  2:15 left in the third.

April 13, 2012 8:59 PM We see our first high screen and roll but it results in a Camby free throw line jumper.  Not what we were looking for.  On the other end, Redd nails a ‘3’.  The lead swells to 10.  This is looking bad.  Fans getting restless.  A few boos.

April 13, 2012 8:59 PM Patterson in the post should be the last option.  Always.  ALWAYS.

April 13, 2012 9:01 PM The lead is now at 12.  This quarter has been a complete and utter disaster.  If the Rockets miss the postseason, they will look back on this third quarter as the moment it all got away.  With that said, I do expect them to make a run and come back in the 4th.  They always do.  Let’s hope that this time, they have enough in the tank to close it out.

April 13, 2012 9:10 PM As the lead swells to 15, I start to wonder if perhaps we might be better off with that first round pick.  Must. push. thoughts. away..

April 13, 2012 9:11 PM I’m struggling to figure out what happened.  Why did the Rockets go away from their gameplan?  Was it on account of some switch by the Suns which I hadn’t noticed?  They were running screen and roll between Camby and Dragic with Scola finding the open spots, in the first quarter.  They switched to some form of Steve Francis iso-ball in the third…

April 13, 2012 9:14 PM Last stand for the Rockets.  9 minutes remaining and a 13 point deficit.  Dragic, Scola, Lowry, Budinger, Parsons take the floor.  Still no Steve Nash…

April 13, 2012 9:17 PM Telfair drills a ‘3’ pushing the lead to 16.  Sucks the air out of the building.

April 13, 2012 9:19 PM The Rockets finally run a high screen and roll and it results in Lowry getting to the line after a kickout.

April 13, 2012 9:23 PM Scola now at the ‘5’.  As a reader put it, “McHale is now desperate.”  Not since Matt Bullard started at the ‘4’ with Walt Williams next to him on the frontline have I abhorred a manifestation of the Rockets’ lineup more than “Scola at the 5.”  That phrase will be etched in infamy on this season’s gravestone.

April 13, 2012 9:25 PM The Rockets have now gone back to the high screen and roll.  Still not scoring.  On the other hand, Sebastian Telfair is.

April 13, 2012 9:26 PM This is the worst Goran Dragic has looked in about a month.  I wonder if the return of Kyle Lowry has thrown off his timing.

April 13, 2012 9:27 PM Nash pushes off Dragic with a forearm, sending him to the ground and drilling the jumper.  I have a friend who does this.  One of the most effective moves in the game.

April 13, 2012 9:29 PM The Rockets have cut the lead to 10 and are making a push with 4:02 remaining.  The Suns actually looked better with Telfair than Nash.

April 13, 2012 9:31 PM The Rockets run an absolutely beautiful motion set resulting in a Parsons dunk.  At the other end, Nash is bailed out by a horrific call after Parsons forces him into an errant circus flip attempt.

April 13, 2012 9:32 PM The Rockets are now running high screen and roll exclusively and are getting results.  Dragic back at the line.  Why did they go away from this?

April 13, 2012 9:33 PM Lead down to 7 as Gortat throws Scola to the floor.  On the previous possession, he snatched the rebound away and scored.  Timeout on the court.  Fans hoping desperately for one last push.

April 13, 2012 9:37 PM Jared Dudley blows by to the rim and lays it in.  Why is Camby not in the game?  We need paint protection.

April 13, 2012 9:39 PM It’s now down to a 5 point game.  Interestingly, the ball has not been in Steve Nash’s hands the last two possessions.  The Suns have instead opted to swing it around with Grant Hill playing the role of decision maker.  Surprising.  At the other end, the Rockets are going with a small ball lineup.

36.2 remaining, the Suns lead 108-100.  I will have more thoughts after the presser.  Follow me on twitter @redninetyfour for live coverage of the Kevin McHale post-game presser….

Including tonight’s showdown (on ESPN) against the Suns, there are eight games remaining.  Home for Phoenix, at Denver, home for Denver, at Dallas, at New Orleans, home for Golden State, at Miami, and home for New Orleans.

The two against New Orleans should be complete ‘gimmes.’  The Warriors have given the Rockets fits in recent years, but that was before the trade that sent Monta Ellis to Milwaukee.  At Miami is an expected loss but is winnable – in fact, any game against any team in the NBA is winnable for the Houston Rockets.

The next four game stretch will determine the season.  If they win two from this quartet set, they should get in.  If they lay an egg, there could be a Houston representative at the draft lottery.  Let’s cross our fingers and hope that the team takes care of business.  The clunker against Utah was disappointing, but a letdown was eventually to be expected.

Tonight’s matchup will feature a high-stakes showdown between mentor and mentee as Steve Nash squares off against Goran Dragic.  Expect a shootout – the Suns are tenth in the league in pace and eighth in overall offensive efficiency. And of course the home team has no qualms about getting up and down.

Looking ahead: Still no word on Kevin Martin.  With just eight games remaining, it appears he may not be brought back at all.  With so little time left, it would be difficult to re-acclimate him into the lineup with everyone already having found their niche.  If the shoulder suddenly heals, it would be a tough call.  The team could surely use the sharpshooter’s offense off the bench.

I’d expect even heavier doses of Lowry-Dragic in tandem down the stretch.  Even before Martin’s injury, it seemed this was Kevin McHale’s backcourt of choice to close games.  The duo gives the Rockets’ coach options galore to run the side screen and roll and also to push the tempo in transition.  Without a superstar, Houston will have to create some sort of advantage and this small-ball effect is their best bet.

Most importantly, however, the Rockets must keep moving, at all times.  Without isolation scorers, the team runs into trouble when the ball and players stagnate. They must move the ball and more importantly, move players through misdirection, swinging the ball back when the defense is off balance.

Around the NBA: The other big matchups tonight pit the Mavs against Portland and the Nuggets against LA.  Without LaMarcus Aldridge (done of the year), the Mavs should easily take care of business against the Blazers.  Denver-LA is a toss-up.  I’d expect all three of Houston-Dallas-Denver to remain deadlocked at the end of the night.  This thing will come down to the wire.  Luckily there is somewhat of a cushion above 9th and 10th.  But the Rockets must take care of business, starting tonight.

Discuss the playoff push.