To continue the free agency discussion, I got together with Matthew Bunch, author of ESPN TrueHoop’s Miami Heat blog, Hot Hot Hoops. What follows is the transcript of our conversation:
Rahat: With the latest salary cap projections, Larry Coon explains:
“The Miami Heat enter the summer with the clear goal of re-signing Wade and bringing in some help in the form of a big man such as Amare Stoudemire, Bosh or Carlos Boozer. But like any team looking to clear cap room, they would have had to let go of their own free agents — robbing them of their depth. Now, they will be able to re-sign Wade, lure a free agent like Stoudemire and still have $10-12 million left over to fill out their roster.”
What will be the Heat’s strategy and who will be their primary targets?
Matthew: Clearly, Wade’s number one. If the Heat lose him, this three-year plan falls apart. Luckily for the team, I feel it’s very very very unlikely Dwyane Wade leaves. If you’re the eternal optimist, the Heat then sign LeBron James and win the next 8 titles. That is not so likely.
I think that if any of the top free agents relocate, it will be via the sign&trade route, simply because if signing somewhere outright, they stand to lose $30million. I can’t see someone leaving that much on the table.
Because of their cap space, the Heat could just send a draft pick (and a traded player exception) to the Raptors to facilitate such a manuever, the advantage being that they would not need to send Toronto any unwanted salaries.
But let’s say, hypothetically, that Bosh ‘ok’ed’ two or more destinations. Since the Raptors hold all of the cards (by virtue of requiring a sign&trade), it might come down to which suitor was offering the best trade package.
If it came down to a bidding war, would the Heat part ways with Michael Beasley in a trade for Chris Bosh or would they look elsewhere (ie: Boozer, Amare) instead?
Matthew: That’s a fair point I kind-of ignored. He said earlier this year that he would get the maximum money wherever he went, which led many to believe he was a stone-cold sign-and-trade guy. I think I’m the only guy who wants to give Beasley another minute in a Heat uniform, so I think if it came down to that, Beasley’s gone. However, I don’t think Pat Riley is going to be hustled into a bad trade.
Rahat: From PER to TS%, Beasley’s numbers went down across the board this year. What is his upside at this point?
Matthew: I guess his only true upside is hope and youth. Players at the four like him typically take three years to fully develop. It’s a rough comparison, but when you look at Kevin Garnett’s first three years, you can see how the first two years are a slog, followed by an impressive third season and much greater things afterwards. I don’t think he’ll ever develop into Kevin Garnett, nor what everyone in Miami imagines a No. 2 draft pick to be, but I think making a now-or-never decision on him now is foolish. He’s a super-young player whose first true lesson in defense came when he landed in South Florida. To cast him off now could potentially prove incredibly embarrassing.
