A reader, StephenJCyrier, writes:
Say it-”-the CP3 deal would have been an unmitigated disaster for the Rockets.”
On the contrary, with the season having transpired as it has, of one thing I am more sure than ever: had the Gasol trade gone down, the Rockets would now be competing for one of the, if not the top seed in the Western Conference.
The Rockets currently sit just outside the playoff picture at 12-10 yet were it not for some monumental collapses against lesser opponents, they would now be occupying the 4th seed. For the sake of evaluation, because those were uncharacteristic losses that should have been won (ie: they beat themselves against bad teams), we’ll take the middle ground and say that this current cast is a 6th seed.
How would adding Nene, Gasol, and Hayes in place of Scola, Martin, and Dalembert affect this lineup? I think the output would be significantly higher.
Let’s first take Martin. After a slow start, he’s put up a ton of points, and done well, to his credit. But the team plays just as well with Courtney Lee who, while not as potent offensively as K-Mart, makes up for it at the other end. There’s also the unexpected contributions of Goran Dragic who has been phenomenal at the 2-guard in closing games next to Kyle Lowry. I would argue that because of their defense and grit, increased time for Dragic and Lee, in place of Martin, would make this a better team, but at the very least, I think they would replicate his net production.
Then you move to Scola/Dalembert vs. Nene/Gasol/Hayes and it’s not close, really. The only downside you could even point toward for the latter group is diminished minutes for Patrick Patterson. When factoring in his atrocious defense, Scola of late has been giving the team close to nothing with the aforementioned Patterson looking far more effective. Dalembert would be a huge, huge loss, but the surplus contributions of Nene/Gasol/Hayes would more than outweigh that. What you’d lose in shotblocking, you’d gain in positional defense from Hayes and Nene. At the other end, you’d replace Scola’s output with the combined skillset of Nene and Gasol. You’d also have a fresher Lowry with both Gasol and Hayes able to operate from the high post.
When the deal went down, I said that the team’s chances relied on its small forward play. With rookie Chandler Parsons, despite recent shooting struggles, playing out of his mind in filling the ’3′ (playing ‘D’, cutting, bringing energy), the former problem would have been solved.
With the Knicks in turmoil, the Rockets could have been looking at adding a mid-range lottery pick to a core of Gasol, Nene, Hayes, Patterson, Morris, Parsons, Budinger, Lee, Dragic, Lowry, and Motiejunas. That lineup is absolutely loaded and maybe the deepest in the West. Depending on how Gasol aged, they would have had a three or four year window to compete in the West. Painful.
The Rockets still have the Knicks pick due, and still own the rights to promising youngsters in Lowry, Parsons, Morris, and Patterson. But short of a miracle Dwight Howard acquisition, it’s hard to see management putting together a team better than the one they had had for merely a few hours last December.
