Well, I was all set to write about the developing situation in New Orleans, and how Chris Paul could conceivably be back on the trade market. All reports, however, seem indicate a static Paul while increasing the speculation surrounding the relocation of the franchise.
I can only recall two franchises having been purchased by their respective leagues: Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL and the Montreal Expos in MLB. I was, planning to gleefully extrapolate the MLB’s mismanagement of the Expos to garner hopes of a Rocket’s acquisition of significance. The Expos were placed under such tight financial constraints that they were forced to bow out of a playoff chase because MLB’s commissioner, Bud Selig, would not authorize a few $50,000 expenditures.
But comparing Selig and David Stern was too much of a stretch (you’ll understand the sarcasm in a second). The former has preserved an institutional “integrity” through a steadfast refusal to embrace common sense change (instant replay) that is killing the future of the sport by driving kids (the people who become professional players) into other arenas. Stern, conversely, has globalized his sport becoming one of the most popular leagues and brands in the world.
No, that would be far too outlandish. So instead, I devised a trade that could never happen (AND HAS NOT BEEN RUMORED) but makes absolute sense…to me (I ran it past co-Red94 contributor, Ben Heller, and he saw things differently, with valid arguments I seem to have misplaced).
ROCKETS:
Acquire – Chris Bosh and Monta Ellis. Yup, I said it.
Divest – Aaron Brooks, Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, and Kevin Martin
GOLDEN STATE:
Acquire – Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Evan Turner
Divest – Monta Ellis, Brandon Wright
PHILADELPHIA:
Acquire – Jared Jeffries, Brandon Wright, Chase Budinger
Divest – Elton Brand, Evan Turner
MIAMI:
Acquire: Elton Brand, Aaron Brooks, Draft Picks from Knicks via Rockets
Divest: Chris Bosh
Take a deep breath.
HOUSTON
A starting five of: Kyle Lowry, Monta Ellis, Shane Battier, Luis Scola and Chris Bosh doesn’t need too much explaining.
MIAMI
For Miami to participate in this trade is so unrealistic that Bud Selig would have to be managing the Heat for this to have any legs. First, Bosh did not want to come to Houston. Trading him here would just piss him off. Second, Miami would have to admit to a complete miscalculation, swallow its pride, and be willing to take another risk (on Brand’s health). Additionally, Miami’s player-GM, LeBron James, would not likely be open to trading the Batgirl to his and Wade’s Batman/Robin dynamic.
But, let’s pretend that the Miami season is stuck around .500 in January. The playoffs are in sight, but team cohesion is passed out under a table in a Miami nightclub with a half-empty LIT in its hand, a bloody nose, and its cell phone turned off. On a scale of 1 to “college senior with beer goggles,” how desperate are LeBron and Wade? My back of the envelope analysis leans toward “regrettable decision” desperate.
Who is a better hook-up option than a defensive center capable of scoring on the block and a reliable outside shooting point guard who can create his own shot in a pinch? Throw in a draft pick or two, and that’s baby making music.
For the most part, NBA teams need more than two guys who can score on their own to compete for a ring (2000’s Rockets contrast sharply against the early 2000’s Lakers). Losing Bosh would thus necessitate players to fill his offensive output. But converting Bosh into two players capable of scoring, one of whom can create his own shot, while upgrading Miami’s biggest weakness, post defense? That seems palatable, on paper at least.
Brooks gives the Heat not only a sorely needed perimeter shooter (with LeBron and Wade, a team could never have enough, even with the return of Mike Miller), but the little water-bug can also carry an offense for long stretches when neither LeBron nor Wade are willing/available to do so.
The key to the Heat’s side of things is Brooks’ rookie contract. It is cheap this year, allowing him to fit alongside Brand in the salary cap hole vacated by Bosh. More important would be the Heat acquiring Brooks’ Bird Rights, allowing them to circumvent the Salary Cap in order to retain him (given the current structure of the CBA) at his higher, market value next year. The Heat is unlikely to find a talent such as Brooks to fit into the Mid-Level Exception.
Brand is admittedly a risk, but this past summer was his first not spent in rehab (injury, not with Vin Baker or Tiger Woods) in 2 years. This season has been his most productive in years. Seems logical to connect those two dots, no? His trade value is its highest it will ever be. He does not warrant a max deal as he is no longer a focal point, but 15ppg, 8rpg, 1.5spg, and 1bpg are good numbers for a team that needs defense at the rim. His veteran status means he can contribute right away and be willing to put the team ahead of his own stats.
The draft picks give the hope of reloading complimentary players on the run.
PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia appears to be giving up a lot. That is primarily because it would be. A lot of money would be walking out their door. A lot. $20,561,819 out the door with only $11,062,743 coming in and only $4,178,943 carrying over to the 2012 season because of Jeffries expiring $6,883,800 contract. Philly would have salary obligations of about $37 million in 2012, or $21 million under the current salary cap.
Saving over $16 million by giving up an overpaid veteran and a heretofore disappointing draft pick is not an unreasonable move. This move also places them within $900,000 of the actual salary cap. So if Philly could cut another $1 million, it would have the flexibility to become a facilitator in subsequent trades. The Sonics/Thunder were able to accumulate fantastic assets from teams seeking to dump distressed assets – 1st round pick from Phoenix for taking on Kurt Thomas’ huge contract.
Elton Brand’s contract is bigger than my…well, its big. Brand has been a bust in Philly due to injuries. He is also a veteran on a young team, wasting his production for a future he will not be party to. Unloading him would be revising history for the better. Would it be the equivalent of telling JFK on April 2nd 1961 that plans to invade Cuba by way of the Bay of Pigs were just a bad April Fool’s joke? No. But it would allow 76ers GM Billy King to escape the mistakes of the previous regime (Parallel – Dwight Eisenhower’s administration actually drew the plans for the Bay of Pigs invasion that happened 3 months into Kennedy’s presidency).
Another little nugget in this scenario is the playing time previously allocated to Brand would presumably be given to youngster Mareese Speights. The kid has solid per minute numbers and just needs more experience. I say presumably, because Doug Collins embraces player development in the same manner I embrace changes to my golf swing: it’s uncomfortable and frustrating even though people tell me it will pay off in the future. And just like I am only a mediocre golfer on my best days, Collins is a…well…Doug just isn’t who you want leading a young team.
A larger dose of Speights added to a corps of Andre Iguodola and Jrue Holiday is a great foundation as Holiday has emerged as a potential Russell Westbrook-like PG. Budinger is more than a throw in, especially at his price tag, and Wright offers a recoupment of some of the potential lost in the departing Turner.
GOLDEN STATE
Golden State is building a Team, and it should not be Monta Ellis’. Stephen Curry is a man. He needs the reigns. Ellis will only impede Curry reaching his full potential. David Lee is a great complimentary-star – superstar numbers with a workman’s attitude. Lee and Curry are among the best passers at their position and Ellis is not ideally suited playing off those two, despite his ability to put up good assist numbers.
Golden State needs young, bench depth to grow along with its budding stars. Adding another athletic shot blocker and rebounder in Jordan Hill who does not need the ball to contribute to team wins is a start. Hill playing alongside Biedrins would be an imposing and athletic frontline. Acquiring the No. 3 pick in last summer’s draft, Evan Turner, is a great gamble given his demonstration of growth and contributions at Ohio State. Philly has not been able to reach him (Doug Collins + Kwame Brown = History repeating itself), but the kid has shown he can play.
Acquiring Kevin Martin maintains the Warriors’ three star blueprint. It also never hurts to have another perimeter threat who can knock down threes and get to the line. Martin can space the floor in a Jeff Hornacek roll for a Curry-Lee duo.
Acquiring Hill, Turner and Martin fills significant needs in the Bay Area and offsets the offensive loss of Ellis while turning the team over to Curry. A starting lineup of Curry, Martin, Dorrell Wright, Lee and Andris Biedrins with Hill backing up the posts off the bench has plenty of firepower and size.
Golden State, however, would exceed the luxury tax threshold this season by about $200,000 (or $400,000 because of the dollar for dollar tax in doing so). That could be mitigated in a subsequent trade fairly easily or in this one by sending an expiring contract to Philly.
Exhale.
Remember, I made this up. It is speculation. Your additional speculation is encouraged in the “Comments” section. But this is not a report of anything other than wishful thinking.