Two years ago, receiving news that Yao is days away from returning to the court after a month-long injury would have produced a collective sigh of relief. Today? My biggest concern is that he’ll disrupt the flow of the offense. Brad Miller has finally found his groove, and aside from the occasional late-game blunder (the kind when they pan to his face and you feel bad for him), he has been surprisingly effective. More importantly, other Rockets are starting to figure out that if they cut hard, he will get them an easy shot. With Yao on the court, the Rockets will likely have him in the low post, negating a big part of the read and react offense. Can the Rockets continue to thrive in their newfound chemistry with Yao’s return?
Looking at accomplishments by 5 man units is one way to get an idea of a player’s contributions to winning. According to 82games.com, here are the top 5 units so far this year:
# |
Unit |
Min |
Off |
Def |
+/- |
W |
L |
Win% |
1 |
Lowry-Martin-Battier-Scola-Hayes |
188.3 |
1.13 |
1.16 |
-6 |
6 |
6 |
50 |
2 |
Lowry-Martin-Battier-Scola-Miller |
106.8 |
1.17 |
1.04 |
32 |
5 |
4 |
55.5 |
3 |
Smith-Lee-Budinger-Hill-Miller |
50 |
1.19 |
1.18 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
33.3 |
4 |
Lowry-Martin-Battier-Scola-Hill |
30.9 |
1.19 |
0.98 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
50 |
5 |
Brooks-Martin-Battier-Scola-Yao |
28.3 |
1.05 |
1.31 |
-15 |
1 |
2 |
33.3 |
There are a few interesting bullets from this information:
- The only difference between the number 1 unit and the number 2 unit is substituting Miller for Hayes. There is a predictable jump in offense, but more striking is the huge improvement in defense.
- Brad Miller is in two of our top 3 lineups
- Our defense is atrocious in the one lineup featuring Yao
I know – this is limited data. However, coaches pay attention to the relative performance of different 5-man units, especially with new players on a team and endless injuries. I am not necessarily saying that these are our best lineups, but when trends do start to develop, unit success is a strong dictator of playing time.
The Rockets have started to look like a respectable team lately, but is it for the obvious reasons? Here is Yao’s individual production on the court this year versus Brad Miller:
Player |
Min |
+/- |
Off |
Def |
Net48 |
W |
L |
Win% |
Miller |
37% |
32 |
1.13 |
1.11 |
4.2 |
9 |
9 |
50 |
Yao |
9% |
-27 |
1.01 |
1.14 |
-14.3 |
1 |
4 |
20 |
While their defense is comparable, it seems that Yao’s biggest hindrance thus far has been his offense. Is this a pattern that will continue when he returns?
