The Rockets’ defense by the numbers: more questions than answers

Only two teams, the Spurs and Heat, scored more points per possession than the Rockets did last season. In contrast, nearly two thirds of the league gave up fewer points per possession, and of those teams only one, the Knicks, made the playoffs (the rest combined to win a woeful 35% of their games).

So defense is important (clearly, this is news to no one). But what will be different this up-coming season for the Rockets? Can we expect an improved defense? And what about the offense?

Superficially, it seems like the biggest difference between the Rockets we saw last season and the team we might see this December, barring any major (paging Dr. Howard) roster moves, will probably hinge on the disparity between Rick Adelman’s and Kevin McHale’s coaching styles.

But what can we expect from McHale? He’s bound to focus more on defense, right? Can we learn much of anything from his previous weeks as the Wolves coach? More flex sets on offense? He played for the Celtics in the 80’s. Can we assume that Budinger will grow a gnarly mullet? Can Thabeet learn the up and under? Your guess is as good as mine. But it seems like the most consistent theme to be gleaned from McHale’s press conferences and interviews about his approach to coaching is adaptability. He apparently intends to adapt his strategy/playbook/approach to fit the team’s personnel.

So what about the roster then? Other than the addition of Marcus Morris, it should look just about the same. Or will it? Last season, despite the fact that the team lost its franchise center and traded its starting point guard and small forward before March, only 5 lineups got more than 100 minutes of playing time together, all five of which included Lowry, Martin, and Scola, and three of the five also sported Chuck Hayes and Shane Battier. * So what about the first round pick that Morey gave up for Terrence Williams? Williams played 2% of the team’s available minutes at small forward. And what about Hasheem Thabeet? Last season for the Rockets he played a total of 4 minutes in 23 games, during which he collected three fouls, a missed shot, and a block.

But this year, with a little more breathing room on the roster and a management friendly players’ coach, this might change. Battier, who played 43% of the available minutes at small forward and Brad Miller who played 25% of the team’s center minutes are both no longer with the club. In addition, Jordan Hill, who boasted by far the worst adjusted plus/minus (-16.87) of any player on the team, saw his minutes (21% of center availables) significantly reduced by the season’s end. This should mean more playing time for guys like Thabeet and Williams, which, in the case of Thabeet in particular, could mean positive changes for the Rockets’ defense.

In an early interview as the newest Houston head coach, Kevin McHale stressed the importance of post defense.

McHale, speaking with every bit the conviction of his more experienced predecessors, made it clear what he would consider job one. In a span of seven minutes, he used the term “protect the paint” eight times. When discussing why he enjoyed his job with TNT and NBA TV, he said, “you have to protect the paint,” twice.

“I know how we’ll protect the paint with this team. We have to plug early, get your big guys over, load to the ball, stop that initial penetration. You can’t have straight-line drives, can’t have blow-bys. If you get into it and you’re lucky enough to get a huge, shot-blocking center, you can funnel everything to him a little more.”

Now, to assume based on his NBA track record thus far that Hasheem Thabeet can fill that role as your dependably “huge, shot-blocking center” might seem hopefully naive. But he certainly is huge and, by all accounts, can absolutely block his share of shots. The question then, I suppose, is whether he can do the other things necessary to stay on the court.

Personally, my biggest hope at present (outside of ten million dollars in a duffel-bag falling from the sky into my backyard) is for the NBA season to start on time. My second biggest hope is that Hasheem Thabeet manages to play his way out of the discussion of all-time draft busts and into a Houston starting lineup. The Rockets’ defense needs him to, like I need that bag full of money.

*an interesting note to make here is that despite how often Budinger’s defense is been maligned, substituting him for Battier (the second most common lineup last season) resulted in exactly the same number of points per possession by Rockets’ opponents.

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