Note: Post edited with addition at the bottom
Many have expressed their reluctance towards a Houston Rockets trade for Chris Bosh given the probable cost being Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks (or two other core components.) I think one overlooked aspect of such a deal is a potential follow-up Tracy McGrady trade.
Allow me to explain:
First, a trade for Chris Bosh would most likely require gutting this roster of at least two core pieces. This is because it is highly unlikely that the Raptors would accept a deal involving Tracy McGrady – Bosh is an expiring contract in his own right, so there would be no motivation for such a swap.
Secondly, a trade of Tracy McGrady for anyone of any significance (ie: Iguodala) would almost surely push the Rockets over the luxury tax for next season. This is because the motivation for the other team in such a trade would be to also unload some unwanted albatross (ie: Dalembert/Brand.)
In such a scenario, after re-signing Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola this summer, as well as their draft pick, the Rockets would then be over the tax limit next season. (It is highly, highly unlikely that the team would prefer the return on a McGrady trade over Lowry/Scola and let the latter two walk – they won’t gut their nucleus for someone like Iguodala, in my opinion.)
In my opinion, at status quo, it’s highly unlikely that Les Alexander would sign off on an Iguodala/Dalembert package. From a business-risk perspective, such a team just wouldn’t be worth paying millions in luxury tax.
Because of the financial implications, any trade of Tracy McGrady goes through Les Alexander. This is the key point. Daryl Morey has stated numerous times that this team will not exceed the luxury tax threshold unless presented the opportunity to acquire a “special” player. In my opinion, Andre Iguodala does not fit such a description.
If you are still following me, we now come to Chris Bosh and Marc Stein’s insistence of a Morey Bosh push.
I think it’s highly unlikely that Daryl Morey would gut his roster in a Bosh trade unless he had been given clearance from Alexander to re-tool through a follow-up McGrady trade. A team of Bosh, Yao, and the holdovers from our current core after a Bosh trade probably isn’t much better than the current status quo.
So we’ve ruled out Iguodala alone, for financial concerns, and Bosh alone, for asset concerns. But what about making both trades together?
That would give the team a core of Yao, Bosh, and Iguodala, the latter two both still 25. That is a nucleus, which, in concert with Morey’s now proven ability to find cheap assets, would almost surely be considered worth paying the luxury tax. In addition, such a combination would make use of the asset that is Tracy McGrady’s contract.
There is merit to the argument that Chris Bosh is not worth both Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks (or a similar package.) However, if my previous assumption of Les’ reluctance to pay the tax is true, then just through actually enabling a McGrady trade, a Bosh trade is the best course for total asset optimization, regardless of cost.
If this team maintains the status quo, I do not think they can gain maximum potential return on Tracy McGrady.
Thus, Mark Stein’s insistence of a Morey Bosh push makes me wonder if a dual-blockbuster two-step may indeed be the plan. For the reasons I have outlined, I think it would be the best route for this franchise’s future.
Edit***:
I think I did a poor job explaining my thought process on this last night. The important thing to remember is to view these transactions not through the lens of personnel management, but rather ownership.
What I mean is that a team comprised of Yao, Iguodala, Scola, Landry, Battier, Ariza, Brooks, and Lowry may very well be better than one with Bosh replacing Landry and Brooks. I don’t agree with the sentiment, but taking chemistry into consideration, the argument has merit.
However, what’s important to keep sight of is the risk factor. If you’re Les Alexander, you’re willing to trade for Dalembert (and thus Iguodala) in the second aforementioned scenario because Chris Bosh is just a sounder financial investment than are Landry and Brooks. Bosh is proven while Brooks’ and Landry’s production may be inflated by their current roles. (I don’t think production inflation is the case, but from a risk perspective, it’s not a safe bet for ownership.) So even if Morey might think a team with Landry and Brooks is superior to one with Bosh, I just can’t see Les signing off on the tax implications of Iguodala/Dalembert, and thus, you lose out on the return from ‘The McGrady Asset.’
So the main point regarding Bosh is simply to enable the acquisition of a second star like Iguodala. It’s not to actually improve the team in and of itself.
Finally, it’s been proven that Morey can find cheap assets from the dumpster. Budinger looks to be the next in this line. With this being the case, it’s just a smart decision to trade two uncertain commodities for a proven one in Bosh. The next Landry and Brooks can easily be found once more, and at a fraction of their expected future cost (once the pair hit free agency.) Sell high.
Edit II:
Peter Vescey is now reporting that the Lakers are exploring a deal to send Andrew Bynum to Toronto for Chris Bosh. I can’t see either side turning down such a deal. And I feel ill.
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