If there’s one thing the Houston Rockets have a lot of, it’s power forwards. This isn’t a new condition. In fact, we’ve been discussing, critiquing and questioning Rockets general manager Daryl Morey’s penchant for drafting power forwards for years. But now, at the end of the regular season as the Rockets wait to see which opponent they’ll face in the playoffs, it’s time to examine just what to do with all these fours.
The discussion this year goes like this: Houston’s weakest position is the power forward, but it’s also what they have the most of. Whether need at the position has dictated choice, or Morey simply finds quality players most available at that position, the outcome is the same. The Rockets has five players listed as power forwards, and all but one are legitimate competitors for minutes in the rotation. Let’s get into the rundown.
Greg Smith, while often playing as a center, currently occupies the starting power forward spot on the roster. He’s the most experienced of the lot, which is noteworthy given that he’s only a sophomore. He’s a little undersized for a center at 6’10”, but more average for a power forward. He’s been starting lately, and his numbers have improved because of it. In his starts he’s averaging 8.9 points and 5.1 rebounds a game in only 21.4 minutes, which is even better considering it’s coming on 56.6% shooting from the field. His free throw shooting is rising, and it’s starting to scrape 70%, while he’s kept his turnovers to below one a game all year. His primary skills come on the offensive end, where his unusually adept hands let him catch passes other bigs bobble. He’s good at getting to the rim for an open look, and he’s begun to pick up a post game as well, though it’s somewhat of a work in progress. His defense is somewhere between decent and good, and looks even better next to defensive stalwart Ömer Aşık. Like everyone at this position for Houston, he’s been in and out of the rotation, including some stints with the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, Houston’s D-League affiliate.
The previous starter was Donatas Motiejūnas, a 22 year old rookie who comes by way of Lithuania. His most immediately notable quality is his height, which exceeds any of his competitors. He’s seven foot even, though a bit thin for his height. His post game is easily the most developed of anyone on the team, which is both a source for hope and a cause for concern, as he’s a rookie. Even given his relative shakiness as a rook, his numbers haven’t jumped off the page. In his 14 starts, he logged 21.2 minutes a game, good for 9.3 points on 45.5% shooting, including a disappointing 31% from deep. This is better than his year-long three point percentage, a truly grim 25.7%. He only provides about 4 rebounds and an assists in his starts, and offsets that with a little over a turnover per game. As noted, his offensive game shows great potential, and his height is beyond reproach, but he’s still rough around the edges and needs to put on some muscle before he can really succeed in the post. His individual defense so far looks workable, but his team defense is a work in progress, to say the least.
The current standout of the group is Terrence Jones, who has returned to favor after a long gulf between now and his great summer league play. He’s a rookie as well, and at 6’9” is officially the second shortest on this list. While he sat much of the year with hand injuries and DNP-CD’s, he’s finally seeing meaningful minutes lately. He’s played in 7 games since the all-star break, and racked up an impressive 24 minutes per game in them. His troubling 27% from behind the arc pulls his overall shooting to 48.3% in those games, but every other element of his line during this run has shown great promise. He’s racking up 9.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, an assist, 2.1(!) blocks, 1.1 steals and 1.4 turnovers a game. In fact, he’s piled up 11 blocks in his last two games, which is amazing for anyone not named Serge Ibaka. He’s got a penchant for making aggressive moves to the rim, and he’s not afraid to lead a break (with mixed results). He’s the current golden boy of the fours, and there’s good reason. He looks the most like an NBA player of the rookies, and with some work in the offseason, he could be shooting that three ball well.
Thomas Robinson is the latest addition to this group, arriving in a suite of trades that saw the exit of two previous power forwards (Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris). He’s listed at 6’10”, but that seems a bit generous. He was a top-five pick in the last draft, a position which Morey tried to gain on draft night, but failed. He eventually got the fruits of that pick, with Robinson playing 12 minutes a game in his tenure in Houston thus far. He’s picking up 4.4 points on 44% shooting and 42% free throw shooting, which is unusual to say the least. He also contributes 4.2 rebounds and 1.2 turnovers per game, which is decent on rebounds given his minutes, but less pleasant from a turnovers perspective. He’s got the least offensive range of the group, and his post game is a work in progress at best, but he’s also the most willing and able to work in transition. His athleticism is probably the best out of the lot, and he has the tools to develop a real defensive game with some work. He shows promise on the boards, and pairing a second strong rebounder with Asik can only help on that front.
While Robinson might have a lot of question marks, nobody on the Rockets has as many as Royce White, Houston’s highest pick in the 2012 NBA draft. At 6’8”, he’s the shortest of the group, but also the least traditional power forward. In summer league and in college, he showed an extremely strong passing talent, and seems to relish that aspect of the game as much if not more than scoring. He’s a hard player to figure out, as he seems to have a very well-rounded talent set, giving him the option of playing a sort of point forward. He doesn’t seem to excel at them, however, and his numbers aren’t encouraging. He hasn’t played a minute for the Rockets in a (non pre-season) NBA game, and so his stats must come from his 16 games in the D-League. He played 25.5 minutes a game for the Vipers, putting up 11.4 points on 44% shooting, as well as 5.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.6 turnovers per game. His 10% shooting from behind the arc is horrifying for a player who has at least worked on his three ball, and his numbers overall are disappointing when informed by the fact that NBA assignees tend to dominate in the D-League. His mental health issues and activism are well-documented and continue to be a point of confusion for the Rockets, if not the league as a whole.
The reason to examine this slate of players now is that with a core finally in place for Houston, the Rockets have the option if not obligation to finally sort this position out. Barring acquisition of Dwight Howard or Chris Paul (which are possible if highly unlikely), Jeremy Lin, James Harden, Chandler Parsons and Ömer Aşık will be starting for the Rockets next season. It’s also possible that any player (who isn’t Harden) could be traded, but the result would have to be an all-star caliber players coming to Houston, like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge, but Houston has this in common with 29 other teams. So that leaves just the power forward spot in limbo long term. It’s time to pare the herd.
It would be easy to name the two most promising prospects and keep those while trading the rest, but it’s not quite that simple. Being the best prospects might paradoxically make them the most likely to move, as Houston is liable is not likely to move into a win-now position this summer. Better prospects can bring back better talent, and talent is what Houston needs from a troubled position. As noted, a Love or Aldridge would be best, but those players aren’t going anywhere soon. The most likely scenarios involve the Rockets signing a player on the free agency market, like Josh Smith, Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson. If this were to happen, only one or two of the current power forwards would have any realistic shot at seeing minutes, meaning that three of them are liable to be moved.
Greg Smith likely has the most job security, as he can man both big sports and is a great candidate for long-term bench player. As no slight to his skills, he’s good enough to hold his own with most starters, but not good enough to warrant other teams wanting to start him. This is the fertile ground for solid, long-term role players who can build chemistry on the bench. He’s liable to be the first or second player coming off Houston’s bench for years.
Thomas Robinson, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas are likely at the mercy of the desires of other teams, as none of them is likely to start over anyone the Rockets sign, making them all expendable. The upside is that they’ll be better off not trapped on the bench. A team’s staff only can develop so many players at once, and being able to spend time on one of these players as opposed to three (or four) is a plus. Unless one of them suddenly explodes in the playoffs, none of them will be off the table, meaning that the one desired least by other teams is likely the one to stay. With Robinson as a top-five pick and Jones showing the most promise at the start and end of the season, don’t be surprised if Donatas Motiejūnas is the only one of them left next season.
Royce White is a complete mystery, however, with his intentions being the most mysterious element. The Rockets organization has been very tight-lipped about everything regarding White, and there’s no way to know what their intentions are. He may be flipped to a team who thinks they can do a better job, he may stay with the Rockets and actually play, or the entire situation may degrade to the point of his contract being waived. It seems likely that with a decent offer Morey would be willing to let someone else handle a touchy situation, but that still assumes a lot about the situation. Unless Mr. Morey and/or Mr. White want to speak about it directly, it’s anyone’s guess.
In a few short months, the Rockets power forward logjam may be cleared, and it’s likely to be Smith and Motiejūnas standing atop the rubble. Though, with all things Houston Rockets, there’s no way to predict Daryl Morey, the mad thinker of the basketball world. The entire lot of them might be moved in a trade, or we could see a few more power forwards join the fray next year. Whatever happens, it’s time to pick a direction, and pick it soon.
