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At what point can I feel safe trusting Donatas Motiejunas?

Screenshot 2014-12-05 08.31.23

I’ve been driving the Motiejunas bandwagon for years now, before he ever even came over.  The Rockets’ big man had shown flashes here and there, but had largely been a disappointment up to this season.  There was a point earlier in the year where I was convinced that his career in Houston was soon to be over.  But with injuries saddling Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones, Motiejunas is finally repaying on the trust his small band of loyalists have held.  The 7 footer has maintained his defensive efforts while finally delivering consistently on the offensive end.  But as aforementioned, he had shown glimpses of promise in the past.  Is it too early to fully trust Motiejunas?

I’ve been trying to pinpoint the cause of this sudden effectiveness.  Increased playing time is obvious.  But typically, players show enough in small doses to where, when they get the minutes increase, the eventual production is an extrapolation.  Can you think of an example of a guy being horrible and becoming good with more time?  Off the top of my head, I cannot.

Confidence is an interesting thing.  If a guy goes into a game, and knows he isn’t coming out, and knows he’s going to be out there for most of the time, maybe he settles down?  Maybe that ease is what allows him to put that extra touch on his shot?  You can compare it to real life.  Most people can’t work too well under pressure, especially when they know their job is on the line.  Look at the mistakes made in a legal brief on deadline.  But give a person time and they’ll settle down.  It’s possible that in the ten or so minutes Motiejunas would come in, he pressed too hard to make something happen, throwing everything off.  Unless we get inside his mind, we won’t ever know.

I’m looking back through recent Rockets history for guys who made a “jump”.  Harden was an extrapolation.  Beverley showed glimpses from Day 1.  Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry, now two of the best point guards in the entire league, are also interesting case studies, in that they went from serviceable to all-NBA.  For them, it was a case of finding the right system and growing as leaders.  They also made marginal skill improvements (Lowry extending his range, Dragic becoming a better passer).  But again, those guys were still “good players” all along.

Look at this work from the other night.

And more work:

This isn’t much of a surprise.  We’ve known for years now that Motiejunas has the entire repertoire offensively.  He runs the floor hard, has range, can actually pass off the dribble (which I’ve highlighted previously), and is polished in the post.  You should definitely be able to let Motiejunas work on at least a few possessions per game.  If you don’t, you’re wasting his talents.

But what happens going forward?  We can assume, hopefully, that both Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones will return to the lineup.  That will slash Motiejunas’ minutes drastically.  Do you pull him from the starting lineup?  Some of you are probably thinking, “who cares?  Just be happy we will have three quality bigs.”  I think that’s missing the point.  In an ideal world, it wouldn’t matter.  But Motiejunas is clearly a player with a fragile sense of esteem.  If you disrupt the status quo, you might lose him entirely yet again.

For now, though, I’m just enjoying the ride.  I don’t know when I’ll feel entirely safe to trust Donatas Motiejunas.

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About the author: Rahat Huq is a lawyer in real life and the founder and editor-in-chief of www.Red94.net.

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