Motion Mapping NBA Teams

By durvasa | December 29, 2009 at 2:13 am

The last few days, I’ve been thinking about different ways to explore the offensive and defensive strength of teams with respect to one another. Some weeks ago I came to learn about a “Motion Chart” gadget provided within Google Docs (thanks to Commodore from the Clutchfans message board for this). I figured this would be a great way to observe trends in team performance.  I imported offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and pace data for all 30 NBA teams over the course of the season, and created an NBA Motion Map gadget. I’ll describe briefly the various categories you can visualize:

  • OFF: offensive efficiency or points scored per 100 possessions
  • DEF: defensive efficiency or points allowed per 100 possessions
  • PACE: possessions per 48 minutes
  • EFF: point differential (per 100 possessions)
  • OFF_std, DEF_std, PACE_std, EFF_std: these are standardized statistics, where a value of 0 would be league average, the more negative the worse the team is, and the more positive the better the team is.
  • OFF_DEF_std: this indicates how balanced the team is, more positive means the team is offensively-inclined, more negative means the team is defensively-inclined
  • And for each of the above, you can choose between 2 weeks (stats over prior 2 weeks) or season (stats from the beginning of the season)

The gadget is fairly customizable. By default, it shows offensive efficiency vs defensive efficiency, though using the standardized versions you might get a better gauge of how “above average” or “below average” a team is along a given metric. Another view I would suggest taking a look at is EFF_std vs OFF_DEF_std.  Along one dimension you’ll see how strong or weak the team is overall, and along the other dimension you’ll see their offensive/defensive orientation. You can also set the color and/or size of each point to depend on a specified metric. The Trails check box will control whether a path is drawn for the teams you’ve selected. This is useful if you want to get a stronger visual sense of how a team is trending over time. Here’s a  snapshot to illustrate what it can show you:

Tracking Rockets Offense/Defense over time

In the above example, the changing color from one point to the next reflects changes in pace. The size of the points change to reflect overall efficiency (a “-” in the middle indicates periods where the Houston Rockets were getting outscored). You can also zoom in by dragging a rectangle over an area of interest. Opacity of non-selected teams can be adjusted by clicking the wrench in the lower-right corner as well.

Try it out for yourself:

In addition to the motion scatter plot, you may also find the charts in the other two tabs interesting. The bar chart in the middle tab will show you how the ranking of selected teams along specified metrics change over time. The third chart summarizes the fluctuations of specified metrics over time with a line graph. In the near future, I will look to add “four factor” stats as well (i.e., field goal efficiency, rebounding, turnovers, free throws). If you have any suggestions on other numbers that might be interesting to track, please let me know in the comments section.

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Cleveland Cavaliers 108, Houston Rockets 83

By rahat huq | December 27, 2009 at 8:42 pm

The Houston Rockets lost to a much better team tonight.

Houston opened up blistering out of the gates, jumping out to a 16-4 lead after just four minutes.  The Cleveland Cavaliers closed the gap to end the 1st and held a 51-48 lead at halftime.

The Cavs opened up the 3rd with a ’3′ point barrage, putting the game out of reach.

Aaron Brooks was a bright spot with 23 points, 18 in the first half.

Brian Cook entered the game with 5:37 remaining in the 4th allowing me to get a head start on this recap.

Random Musings:

  • Two interesting plays involving Shane Battier:
  1. With 6:56 remaining in the 1st, Anthony Parker sets up for a corner ‘3’.  A rotating Battier closes out, not by contesting the shot, but by jumping past Parker with an outstretched hand to the face.
  2. To close out the 1st, Lebron receives the inbounds pass in the backcourt with just a few seconds remaining.  Lebron gets ready to shoot the desperation heave.  Rather than jumping to contest the shot, as is done by 99.9% of NBA players, Battier simply stands in James’ path with his arms raised.

Shane’s ‘hand in the face’ defense has been well documented, most notably in matchups against Kobe Bryant.  But he doesn’t just use this method in straight man-coverage.  He does it in all situations.  Whether it be in covering end-of-quarter-heaves to rotational close-outs, Shane Battier has deemed it statistically advantageous to never actually go for the block.

  • Two very uncharacteristic mental errors tonight by Hayes:
  1. With the score 16-6, Hayes picked up his second foul with 6:14 remaining in the 1st.  Hayes gets trapped inside with Shaq and slaps him on the arms to prevent the basket.  Given the situation, he should have conceded the hoop.  I worry at the time that this would be a turning point in the game, but that did not prove to be the case.
  2. With under two minutes remaining in the half, the Rockets are able to force Lebron into a fadeaway airball in the corner.  Hayes grabs the board as Battier sprints out to half-court.  Hayes tries to outlet the pass to Battier and it is picked off by Lebron, leading to an AND-1 basket.  The Cavs take a 3 point lead.

I was very surprised to see a guy like Hayes make such costly mental errors.  His presence in the game is of more importance than preventing a basket.  As far as the second play, the team gains nothing even if Battier is able to receive that pass – he wouldn’t have been able to do anything with it in the open floor.  Except for Trevor, not making mental errors such as these is a big part of why the Rockets have been so good this year.

  • 4:35 left in the 2nd, Landry hits a fallaway turning away from the basket.  This was the type of shot that I had earlier said he couldn’t make.  He seems to be showing us a different move every game.
  • At the end of the 2nd, the Cavs’ announcer remarks that the Rockets play “every possession like it is their last one [and that] that’s why they’ll do well in the playoffs.”  I completely disagree with this sentiment.  The fact that the Rockets’ success comes as the result of maximum effort should be the cause for concern for playoff potential.  The Rockets, as currently constituted, can’t play any better while their opponents will certainly turn up the intensity.  Everyone plays hard in the playoffs.
  • With 8:01 remaining in the 2nd, after directing an obscenity laced tirade towards my television set, Trevor Ariza is finally removed from the ball-game (after a series of bone-headed plays) and replaced by Aaron Brooks.  The Rockets run a very interesting lineup featuring Brooks, Lowry, and the 6’4 Jermaine Taylor, all together on the perimeter.  The team instantly goes on a run.
  • The Cavs take the lead to close out the first half as Lebron completely wears out Battier in the post on successive plays.  This sequence was noteworthy for being the first time all season that my cognitive inhibitions somehow allow me to mutter “I wish we had Artest right now.”  Embarrassed, I quickly realize we would probably have 10 less points at that moment were that the case.
  • Trevor Ariza opens up the 3rd quarter with what is becoming his ‘signature move.’  It’s so painful to watch that it’s almost humorous at this point.  He will drive in, get cut off, and then pick up his dribble.  Having nowhere to go, he’ll turn back around off of his pivot foot and attempt an off balance fallaway.  He does this move at least 5 times a game.  This has become so routine that I’m almost beginning to wonder if the whole sequence is pre-meditated with Trevor somehow believing that what he is doing is the same manner in which other wings perform their fadeaway jumpshots.
  • I just don’t understand what’s taking place.  Rick Adelman probably forgets more basketball on any given day than I have ever known in my entire life.  He’s proven this year that he might just be the best coach in all of basketball.  I just don’t understand what is going on with Ariza.  I don’t want to just criticize; I want badly to just understand the rationale behind what is taking place.  I just can’t think of any logical explanation as to why this player is being allowed to frequently attempt feats which he has absolutely no hope of achieving.  It’s become mind boggling at this point.  I have said many times that I am all for experimentation and player development.  But these have to be within certain limits of realism.  You play David Andersen despite his defensive troubles because he will improve.  You live with Jermaine Taylor getting blocked at the rim because he will learn from it and adjust his shot.  These are areas where players improve from in-game experience.  Trevor Ariza cannot compensate for his complete and total lack of skill and body control with in-game experience.  It just won’t happen.  Letting him take in-game reps at creating off the dribble is completely counterproductive – he just can’t do it.  Maybe he’ll improve over the summer, but affording him such a leash during the season is simply hurting this team.  I just want an explanation because I’m dumbfounded at this point as to why this has been allowed to continue.

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Houston Rockets 98, New Jersey Nets 93

By rahat huq | December 26, 2009 at 10:08 pm

This game was won simply by virtue of the New Jersey Nets not being a very good team.

Carl Landry stayed in ‘beast mode’ leading the way with 26 points and 9 boards.  The Nets were paced by Devin Harris’ 19 points.

The Houston Rockets led 57-51 after 24, shooting 53% from the field, but were held to only 13 points in the 3rd as the Nets crawled back to momentarily take the lead early in the 4th.  However, Aaron Brooks hit a driving layup with 37.3 seconds remaining to put the game out of reach.

Despite the close score, this was possibly the most boring Rockets game I have seen all year.  Those of you who opted for the Ocean’s Eleven/Remember the Titans, TNT/VH1 double header chose wisely.  I unfortunately did not have such an option at my disposal…

Random Musings

  • YES!  My excitement peaks as I see that League Pass is carrying the YES Network broadcast of this game.  That of course means I will be treated to my favorite duo in the business: Marv Albert and Mike Fratello.  These two combine the perfect blend of gravitas, wit, and knowledge to ensure an enjoyable viewing experience.  I am suddenly filled with envy upon the realization that Nets fans enjoy the pleasure of having a nationally acclaimed broadcasting duo call each of their everyday games.  That’s a lot like having Ted Koppel cover the local news.  Or something like that.  Anyways, on this night, it’s rather refreshing to, for once, hear a game called with no trace of the bias characteristic of the telecast coverage of most NBA games.  Kudos to Marv and Mike for their professionalism.  It is greatly appreciated.
  • News breaks prior to the game that Tracy McGrady will not be in action during the double-header.  Something about his son’s birthday party.  I would rather not blindly speculate, but it’s quickly becoming clear that there is trouble in paradise.
  • 11:17 into the 1st, first Rockets’ possession, Ariza just pulls it out and promptly jacks up a 3.  Seriously?  I decided earlier today to stop documenting his mistakes, but this is becoming mind-numbing, especially when his decision-making so grossly contracts with that of his teammates.
  • At the 3:10 mark of the 2nd, the Rockets scramble on a pseudo-break, Trevor catches with the defense out of position and pump fakes the ‘3’.  His defender flies by and Ariza puts it on the floor, slices through and double pumps for the lay-in.  This is how Trevor Ariza can thrive for this team.  Unfortunately, not too many of these opportunities will present themselves until Yao returns or another premiere player is acquired.  Slashers like Trevor are at their best when the defense is off balance and they can blow by against a late rotation.
  • Midway through the 1st, Marv says that the Rockets would surely be a contender this year with a healthy Yao.  The gesture is appreciated, but I disagree.  I don’t think we can make serious noise in the playoffs without a dynamic perimeter element.  No disrespect to the effort shown thus far.
  • Very nice drive by Aaron Brooks late in the 1st as he lofts it up underhanded to avoid Brook Lopez.  Aaron has done a much better job this year of not getting blocked in the lane.
  • Mike Fratello describes his former player, Kyle Lowry as “one of the toughest, toughest guys [he] has coached.”  Is there really a tougher point guard in the league right now?  I would have loved to see Lowry on those 93-94 Knicks teams prior to the imposition of the current hand-checking rules.  Actually, now that I mention it, I don’t see Kenny Smith making it past the time-line too many times in the ’94 Finals against that…
  • Speaking of the 90’s Knicks, coming back from commercials, YES had a brief clip of Anthony Mason running the break.  Unfortunately, I was flipping back from Remember the Titans, so I didn’t catch the discourse in its entirety, but apparently Chuck Hayes was given DVD’s of Mason and told to observe and emulate.
  • Random thought: Would have loved to have seen the 93-94 Knicks (the best statistical defense in NBA history) in a cage match vs. the ’05 Suns.  Really can’t think of two greater opposite extremes.  Well other than Marv and Mike with…
  • 37.3 remaining in the 4th, Aaron Brooks makes a driving layup along the left baseline, double pumping to avoid a swiping Yi.  He got blocked on a similar play last year by Duncan to end a game against the Spurs.  Maturation or is it just that Yi isn’t Duncan?  You be the judge.

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Carl Landry: Sixth-Man of the Year?

By durvasa | December 26, 2009 at 4:24 am

Update: Added minutes played and per-minute scoring stats at the end of the post.

During the Lakers-Cavs Christmas Day game, Mike Breen asked his broadcasting partners to comment on how underrated Andersen Varaejo has been as a 6th-man of the year candidate. Jeff Van Gundy, as usual in the Houston Rockets’ corner, used the opportunity to speak up about the amazing year Carl Landry has been having off the Rockets bench. According to him, Landry has been the league’s best reserve so far, and it isn’t close.  Such a claim may have come as a surprise to a large portion of the audience who haven’t seen the Rockets play due to their absence on the national television stage. Rockets fans know Landry has been really good, but even they may not fully appreciate how effective he’s been.

Allow me to put it more concretely. So far this season (up through 12/24, that is), 136 players have played at least 10 minutes in at least 10 games coming off the bench.  Amongst this pool of players, Landry ranks 1st in points scored per minute and 1st in TS%  (points scored per shot attempt, including free throws). Moreover, he ranks 1st in PER (a per-minute, pace-adjusted player rating based on the boxscore) and 1st in Win Shares (total contribution towards a team’s wins, based on the boxscore).  The chart below illustrates his dominance amongst reserves by these metrics, and I’ve highlighted the other 6th-man of the year candidates mentioned in the most recent ESPN.com Awards Watch (and Kyle Lowry also, who’s worthy of being in the discussion).

Win Shares, PER Scatter Plot. Landry dominates both per-minute and in total contribution, by the boxscore.

That, I think, makes for a pretty good case in support of Jeff Van Gundy’s contention. But I would like to make still one more point. Would you believe that, for games through 12/24, Carl Landry leads the league in 4th quarter scoring? Here are the top 20 players so far this season in points scored per game in the 4th quarter:

rnk     Player              TS%        pts/4th
1       Carl Landry         69.7%       6.8
2       Carmelo Anthony     60.8%       6.6
3       J.R. Smith          58.7%       6.4
4       Dwyane Wade         56.9%       6.3
5       Brandon Roy         57.8%       6.1
6       Dirk Nowitzki       54.8%       6.0
7       LeBron James        55.2%       6.0
8       Jason Terry         61.5%       6.0
9       Danny Granger       55.1%       5.8
10      Kevin Durant        52.8%       5.8
11      Brandon Jennings    52.1%       5.7
12      Kobe Bryant         55.7%       5.5
13      Monta Ellis         58.1%       5.5
14      Will Bynum          53.9%       5.3
15      Earl Boykins        69.3%       5.3
16      Russell Westbrook   56.7%       5.0
17      Tyreke Evans        50.5%       4.9
18      Al Harrington       59.9%       4.8
19      Chris Paul          60.0%       4.8
20      Mo Williams         54.7%       4.8

Notice also that Landry not only tops this list in 4th quarter scoring, he’s also been the most efficient scorer amongst the top 20. And its not as if the Rockets have played a ton of blowouts and Landry has just been padding his stats in garbage time. In the second half, when the Rockets need buckets, Carl Landry has been their goto player.  Below, I show another scatter plot, indicating both points scored and efficiency, for the top 100 players in  4th quarter scoring. I’ve grayed out players who have started at least 40% of their games so as to highlight the reserves. I’ve also adjusted the label size based on total minutes played to focus on the “important” players for our consideration.

4th Quarter Scoring -- Landry stands out as a 4th quarter scorer, whether amongst reserves or the entire league.

What’s interesting is that not only does Landry’s fourth quarter proficiency set him apart from other players, he’s the only “big” who operates primarily in the post who is even close to the top as a top 4th quarter scorer. What makes him so good? Landry possesses elite quickness when operating in the post or facing up, and he makes up for his relatively short stature by having incredible strength and coordination in the air.  He has also expanded his post moves to include an accurate jump hook or fallaway in the lane. Perhaps most importantly, Landry has become a dead-eye free throw shooter. With Yao, the Rockets had a big man who they could depend on to shoot 85% from the line. Its quite a luxury to have an option in the post who’s both adept at drawing fouls and will convert at a high percentage, and Landry has continued the tradition in Yao’s absence.

Update

Upon reading the 4th quarter scoring stats above, readers may have been surprised to see players such as Kobe Bryant falling outside the top 10.  While I do believe, for this discussion, minutes played in the 4th quarter is relevant, a more accurate portrayal of the best 4th quarter scorers would be to look at it per-minute. I’ve updated the table above to show 4th quarter minutes played per game and also scoring per 36-minutes.

rnk     Player             4th_min    pts/36min    TS%      pts/4th
1       Carl Landry         9.9         24.7      69.7%      6.8
2       Carmelo Anthony     7.5         31.6      60.8%      6.6
3       J.R. Smith          9.5         24.0      58.7%      6.4
4       Dwyane Wade         7.7         29.6      56.9%      6.3
5       Brandon Roy         8.4         26.1      57.8%      6.1
6       Dirk Nowitzki       8.4         26.0      54.8%      6.0
7       LeBron James        7.3         29.7      55.2%      6.0
8       Jason Terry         10.4        20.8      61.5%      6.0
9       Danny Granger       8.8         23.7      55.1%      5.8
10      Kevin Durant        8.8         23.4      52.8%      5.8
11      Brandon Jennings    8.4         24.6      52.1%      5.7
12      Kobe Bryant         6.2         31.8      55.7%      5.5
13      Monta Ellis         8.1         24.2      58.1%      5.5
14      Will Bynum          9.5         20.0      53.9%      5.3
15      Earl Boykins        8.6         21.9      69.3%      5.3
16      Russell Westbrook   7.5         23.8      56.7%      5.0
17      Tyreke Evans        8.2         21.4      50.5%      4.9
18      Al Harrington       8.5         20.4      59.9%      4.8
19      Chris Paul          6.8         25.5      60.0%      4.8
20      Mo Williams         9.2         18.7      54.7%      4.8

And below I’ve included another scatter plot, this time showing top 100 players in 4th quarter scoring per 36 minutes.

Fourth Quarter Scoring Per 36 minute; Landry still excels.

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Orlando Magic 102, Houston Rockets 87

By rahat huq | December 23, 2009 at 9:24 pm

This game was lost midway through the 3rd quarter when Trevor Ariza inexplicably tried to create for himself off the dribble on three consecutive trips down the floor.  Spanning from the 7:05 mark of the 3rd, up until a Jameer Nelson ’3′ a few minutes later, the lead ballooned to 12 and the Houston Rockets never recovered.

Dwight Howard was quiet offensively but snared 20 boards while Houston was led by Carl Landry with 20 points.

The Orlando Magic jumped out to an early 34-22 lead after 1, but the Rockets used a 30 point 2nd quarter to bridge the gap to 55-52 heading into halftime.  The Magic put the game away in the 3rd as the Rockets managed only 13 points, running much of the offense through Ariza.

Trevor finished the game with a +/- of -23, hitting only 1-10 from the field.  Kyle Lowry was solid once more with 13 points as the team looked noticeably better with him on the floor.

The Magic featured a balanced attack with five players scoring in double figures, led by Vince Carter’s 18 points.

Brian Cook entered the game with under 2 minutes remaining, prompting me to turn my attention away from said game and towards this recap.

Random Musings

  • The biggest story tonight was Trevor Ariza.  On the first play of the game, he opened up with a contested jumper driving to his right that left me dumbfounded.  At the 7:05 mark in the 3rd, he chucked up another jumper of this variety.  The next trip down the floor, Trevor drove to his left, got trapped by his defender, picked up his dribble (shocker), turned back towards his right and faded away with a hand in his face, naturally airballing the attempt.  As if this weren’t enough, he somehow managed to receive the ball yet again on the next trip down the floor.  He then dribbled into the paint, came back out, and shot again going to his right, missing once more.  I could only laugh in appreciation at this point.  The Magic pushed the lead to 12 during this sequence and the Rockets never recovered.
  • Late in the 2nd, Matt Guokas remarks that Trevor is “best suited as a 3rd or 4th guy.”  I have decided that henceforth, this will be my new litmus test for broadcaster intelligence.  I’m no longer going to even attempt to take seriously anyone who trumpets Ariza as this team’s best player.  So Guokas makes my ‘good’ list for tonight.
  • As far as Ariza, I’m not sure what is taking place.  That he went 1-10 and has been struggling with the shot isn’t my concern.  It’s the type of shots which he’s taking which are the cause of my frustration.  He’s just not a guy who can create off the dribble.  He’s not nearly skilled enough to even attempt some of the shots he’s taking.  I explained this in depth in November.  I said at the time that I had no problem with experimentation, but this has become ridiculous.  It just won’t happen in-game for Trevor so I don’t understand why the leash hasn’t been shortened yet.
  • Tracy entered the game at the 7:30 mark in the 1st to a heavy chorus of boos.  This came as a surprise.  I didn’t think he was relevant enough to garner such a reaction.  On this night, despite the appearances given by the box score, I thought he looked very good.  The Rockets looked to him every trip down the floor, bringing him across the baseline from side to side.  Once more, as I noted earlier, we didn’t see him used at all as a motion cutter as he was in his debut.  It’s become painfully clear that the staff hopes to, at the least, see what ‘The McGrady Offense’ can bring.  Tracy looked a step quicker on his drives, even making his way all the way through at the 1:35 mark before missing at the rim.  At the 2:06 mark of the first, he actually got caught in the air with no space, and effortlessly found an open David Andersen.  His body control/passing are almost unparalleled in this league.  However, for McGrady, the highlight of this night came on a play that probably went without notice.  With 2:55 remaining, he made a sudden burst backdoor, completely losing his defender.  Unfortunately, he wasn’t spotted by David Andersen and didn’t receive the pass.  Up until that point, I hadn’t yet seen Tracy make a move that explosive in his five games since the return.
  • Unfortunately, the lowlight for Tracy probably needs its own bullet.  With 20 seconds remaining in his stint, McGrady didn’t even attempt to contest a Ryan Anderson ‘3’, and the lead swelled to ten.  It’s difficult with McGrady.  He can look so good at one end, exhibiting all-world talents, and then appear to not even have the slightest interest on the very next play.  Like I have been saying, the metric that considers the net effect of his impact on “The Chaos Effect” against his passing contributions will determine his future in Houston.    
  • Funny side story in the 1st as Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter were matched up with one another.  Sorry, that they were both in uniform was the funny side story.
  • Aaron Brooks was brought off screens to hit two back to back 3’s early in the 2nd.  I hadn’t seen much of this play before tonight.  Most of his 3’s are of the spot-up variety. 
  • Carl Landry looked very bothered by Marcin Gortat in the 2nd but then went to work on him in the 4th.  Another good game by Carl.  With 54.2 seconds remaining in the 1st, Landry faced up on Howard and blew right around him, putting it in off the glass.  I don’t think it’s possible to stop him off the dribble with a ‘big.’
  • Landry and Lowry are the two best players on this team right now.  I think I am now confident with making that assertion.  I don’t know if the fact that they both come off the bench, in light of the fact that the team struggles in the 1st, is necessarily problematic, but they are our two best players.  Aaron Brooks is more dangerous, but Lowry and Landry are better. 
  • I was very, very impressed by Marcin Gortat tonight.  He was very active in the 2nd and seemed to get a hand on every loose ball. 
  • I was also impressed by Reddick.  He made a play where he drove to his right and pulled up and another where he pump faked and baited a gambling Trevor Ariza (shocker) into a foul.  There aren’t many ‘specialists’ in this league that can do those things.
  • Strangest play of the game, aside from the lone Ariza basket, came with 2:08 remaining in the 4th.  Aaron Brooks actually grabbed Dwight Howard’s leg and then bumped him in protest after Howard had fallen on top of him.  I wasn’t too sure what was actually taking place and I don’t think Howard was either.

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