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[Red94]

New post: Don't give up on Jeremy Lin
By: rahat huq

They say that playoff basketball exposes all of a team's weaknesses.  After Sunday night, I realized that that statement couldn't be any more true.

The Rockets' greatest flaw all season had been their lack of interior depth.  Outside of Omer Asik, they really couldn't count on anyone with any size to give them anything consistently.  And while Jeremy Lin's shooting has vastly improved over the course of the season, his overall play at the point guard position has been shaky.  It's been no secret, even dating back to the days of Linsanity, that Lin's game isn't particularly refined.

The Rockets will enter tomorrow's Game 2 with adjustments needed to be made.  Greg Smith, who did little of anything--aside from clogging the lane--will likely see a drastic cut in minutes.  There are those who hope that Lin's minutes also are reduced.



Lin, on Sunday, was atrocious.  He missed most of his shots, he forced bad passes.  Since he couldn't blow past his man, he couldn't do much of anything.  On the other hand, his backup, Patrick Beverley, was the sole bright spot for the team.  But to bench Lin now--as some have proposed--would be foolish.

There's no harm in benching Smith because it's unclear whether he fits into the team's long term plans.  He's battling for the spot with Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones; Josh Smith, in the summer, might also be an option.

But Lin, presumably, is 'the man' at point, locked in for another two years.  If he's going to be around, if he's intended as part of the core, he needs to be on the court for the thrashing.  No matter how bad he plays, Lin won't learn from sitting on the bench.

He needs to understand the flaws in his game by having them exposed, as they were on Sunday.  He needs to see why a point guard must have nuance in his arsenal and must be able to play at different speeds.  He needs to see why he must learn to drive left and why he must learn to be effective even when unable to get a first step on his man.  He needs to see just how far he still needs to go in the area of skill development.

One of my biggest complaints with Kevin McHale this season was his handling of Lin.  If the latter was having a poor game, McHale almost always would bench him in the 4th quarter.  Given that Lin is the only other player than Harden who can get his own shot, the practice was downright short-sighted.  Most good coaches, like Gregg Popovich, take their lumps early in the year, sacrificing some in the present for player development.  If they know they'll need a guy later, they'll build him towards that.  McHale didn't do that.  Predictably, now, when the Rockets have needed Lin, like late in the Laker game, he hasn't had the confidence to step up.  Lin just deferred to Harden, just like the other players, because he hadn't been in that position too many times.  He couldn't learn because he was sitting on the bench.

Hopefully the Rockets won't make that similar mistake with Lin's overall playing time.  Beverley needs to play more, but that should come at the expense of the young 'bigs.'  Lin needs to play now because if he is to be a part of the team's future, he needs to take the lumps with his teammates.

[kevingan]

He needs to understand the flaws in his game by having them exposed, as they were on Sunday.  He needs to see why a point guard must have nuance in his arsenal and must be able to play at different speeds.  He needs to see why he must learn to drive left and why he must learn to be effective even when unable to get a first step on his man.  He needs to see just how far he still needs to go in the area of skill development.

 

 

Do you think he doesn't understand all that and much more about his game? He's out there "doing and suffering," but you're talking about him as if he were a moron!  I have to chalk that tone up to playoff frustration--however, I think we need to maintain perspective on the people on the team and their skills and self-awareness and internal drive to improve--and most of them have quite a lot of all those qualities.  Lin certainly does, and I'll bet Harden does also.  Patience, my young Padwan!

 

Kevin

[Futureinterest]

I thought it was a good piece. Lin detractors don't let him have a bad game without jumping all over him. He is going to have bad games... Every player not named LeBron has bad games. It's unfortunate that he's had a few clunkers with the brightest of lights on the team... But he's not the worst offender and certainly not alone. The OP is indeed preaching patience, not to Lin but to everyone that reads this, my young Padawan!

[Rahat Huq]

He needs to understand the flaws in his game by having them exposed, as they were on Sunday.  He needs to see why a point guard must have nuance in his arsenal and must be able to play at different speeds.  He needs to see why he must learn to drive left and why he must learn to be effective even when unable to get a first step on his man.  He needs to see just how far he still needs to go in the area of skill development.

 

 

Do you think he doesn't understand all that and much more about his game? He's out there "doing and suffering," but you're talking about him as if he were a moron!  I have to chalk that tone up to playoff frustration--however, I think we need to maintain perspective on the people on the team and their skills and self-awareness and internal drive to improve--and most of them have quite a lot of all those qualities.  Lin certainly does, and I'll bet Harden does also.  Patience, my young Padwan!

 

Kevin

I don't know if he does or doesn't, but I hope if he doesn't, he becomes aware of it.  Many players are often unaware of their flaws because they rarely are exposed.  In the case of Lin, he can usually just blow right past his man and get right to the hoop.  That's not the case against OKC where 1) he can't blow past Russell Westbrook and 2) if he does, Ibaka and Perkins are waiting.  He has to learn other ways to be effective, i.e. Chris Paul basically has just one knee and rarely tries to drive all the way in to the hoop but he still picks teams apart playing slowly.  

[thenit]

I agree that Lin needs to get refined, and needs to work on a lot of things this summer. I think he was aware of his lefthand driblle but just didn't have time to work on it due to the knee surgery during the off-season. He worked on his shooting during the season and has improved a lot on that aspect. I also agree that we need to let him play even if he gets killed by Westbrook, because we aren't winning the championship even if we miracously would win this series, we won't go anywhere. So you rather give players the experience that are going to be here for the long haul. Worst case is that we will know his defiencies and get a better picture of him the 2nd year playoffs and see if there is an improvement on the players development. 

[RollingWave]

Hopefully the Rockets won't make that similar mistake with Lin's overall playing time.  Beverley needs to play more, but that should come at the expense of the young 'bigs.'  Lin needs to play now because if he is to be a part of the team's future, he needs to take the lumps with his teammates.

 

Well Kevin McHale probably read your post  

[2016Champions]

Great recent article/podcast where Daryl Morey speaks very highly of Jeremy Lin's season: http://houston.cbslo...-to-jeremy-lin/

 

A few things I got from that podcast:

 

• According to Morey's statistics, Jeremy was our third best player.
• Lin was the 5th best pick and roll guy in the league.
• People are focusing way too much on Lin's performance in the playoffs which was greatly hindered by his injury.

 

He didn't even mention how Lin played the first half of the season not 100% because he came off knee surgery. The fact Lin was our third best player despite his slow start says alot to me, because in my mind that means Chandler Parsons was a distant forth which isn't a knock on Parsons as much as it is praise for Lin.

 

I like that Jeremy Lin is a "no excuses" kind of guy though, he thinks more about his sub-par performance more than his good performances this season, and his number one goal this off-season is to improve his body to avoid injuries: http://www.csnhouston.com/video/

[RollingWave]

well, even RSPM had him as our 3rd best starter, Beverly rated higher than him though. (only non starter to do so.)

 

Harden: +5.56 (6th in the league.)

 

Asik: +1.96 (similar player in this range, Paul George, Kevin Garnett, DeAndre Jordan, David West, Andre Iguodala, Kyrie Irving.)

 

Lin: +0.78 (similar in this range : Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Thabo Sefolosha, Jimmy Butler)

 

Parsons: +0.49 (similar range : Z-Bo, JR Smith.)

 

RSPM is very much focused on tangible stats though, which probably doesn't do Parsons justice, it also doesn't take minutes played into very heavy consideration (it's weighted very light). and unlike Win Share, it doesn't judge on defense and offense rating. I actually think Win Share's a better approach, though both have enough merits to keep in context, if the two disagree then you should consider further, if both agree that's pretty close to about where that player is IMHO. and for Lin at least, they pretty much agree that he's had a solid year. (right around average in Winshare, slightly above in RSPM)

 

 

Some notable PG under the Jeremy Lin line in both ranking.

 

Isaiah Thomas

Jrue Holiday

Steve Nash

Damian Lillard

Ray Felton

Mo Williams

Grevis Vasquez

 

Others with at least one end being lower

 

Mario Chalmers (RSPM)

Darren Collison (RSPM)

Kemba Walker (WIn Share)

Brandon Jennings (Win Share)

Ricky Rubio (Win Share, but he is one guy where the 2 stats disagree massively. as RSPM sees him as great.)

 

Now, a few of those PG clearly sucks (Felton / Williams) but this list seem to suggest that Lin's comfortably in the middle of the pack in terms of PG, guys like Teague / Dragic is better but it's not apparent if the margin is that big, guys like Calderon is better but that seems mostly a result of him being developed versus still developing younger PGs.

 

The elephant in the room is Kyle Lowry, whom by rate is awesome in both ends (he's #20th on RSPM!!! and pretty good in Win Share too) but it's like the 3rd team he's on and he's gotten into conflict on all 3 team, lost the job to Conley in Memphis, fought McHale and lost out to Dragic in Houston, and then was really being replaced by Calderon in Toronto until the later was traded. I'd guess a bad character case can be made here.

 

In short, see Lin as what he is, which is a average PG that could go either way. now, 8M for average PG is a little bit much, but the average NBA pay is also 6M, so it's marginal at best.  Yes, if you could somehow get Chris Paul, there's no way you don't, which doesn't say much, since there's only about 3 other PG in the league where you would consider seriously to not take Paul over. but folks assuming that you'd grab a huge upgrade of a PG for same or less money is kidding themselves in general.

 

 

 

 

[manmythlegend]

Lin's success with the Rockets will be dependent on his ability to evolve into an efficient, pass first point guard who can play solid defense. Scoring will be a tertiary concern for him. We will not see Linsanity in Houston, especially if the Rockets add that precious 2nd All Star.

Ballhandling and 3 point shooting need to be his focal points in the offseason. I expect a lean, mean Lin in 2013-14, since he will know what his role is with this team and what they expect from him.

[rockets best fan]

Lin's success with the Rockets will be dependent on his ability to evolve into an efficient, pass first point guard who can play solid defense. Scoring will be a tertiary concern for him. We will not see Linsanity in Houston, especially if the Rockets add that precious 2nd All Star.

Ballhandling and 3 point shooting need to be his focal points in the offseason. I expect a lean, mean Lin in 2013-14, since he will know what his role is with this team and what they expect from him.

I agree that's what he needs to be, but disagree that he can become that. I know it's an unpopular view, but I don't believe lin is the answer at the point guard position. unless he is able to make the type of leap he did in NY he should be seen as trade bait. I was not happy with the year he had. a chain is only as strong as the weakest link......he is our weak link

[thejohnnygold]

I agree that's what he needs to be, but disagree that he can become that. I know it's an unpopular view, but I don't believe lin is the answer at the point guard position. unless he is able to make the type of leap he did in NY he should be seen as trade bait. I was not happy with the year he had. a chain is only as strong as the weakest link......he is our weak link

 

Now it only seems fair to apply the same standard to Lin as Harden gets....Lin had all the same excuses as Harden plus this is his true first full year playing....It was a little bumpy, but the guy has great attitude and the mind and character to get better.  He'll never be Steve Nash, but how many are?

 

I'm willing to withhold judgement...We've been over this and the options available for replacing him outside of CP3 and Bledsoe are slim....I believe he'll make us forget about wanting to replace him at all.

[ale11]

I agree that's what he needs to be, but disagree that he can become that. I know it's an unpopular view, but I don't believe lin is the answer at the point guard position. unless he is able to make the type of leap he did in NY he should be seen as trade bait. I was not happy with the year he had. a chain is only as strong as the weakest link......he is our weak link

 

The PF rotation is the weakest link, not Lin. Even though I agree that his season didn't meet everyone's expectations (including his), I don't see him as a weak link, maybe not a strong one, but definitely not weak.

[rockets best fan]

The PF rotation is the weakest link, not Lin. Even though I agree that his season didn't meet everyone's expectations (including his), I don't see him as a weak link, maybe not a strong one, but definitely not weak.

true......but help is on the horizon at PF, not so at PG. sure bev is there, but lin makes to much to be a backup.

[rockets best fan]

Now it only seems fair to apply the same standard to Lin as Harden gets....Lin had all the same excuses as Harden plus this is his true first full year playing....It was a little bumpy, but the guy has great attitude and the mind and character to get better.  He'll never be Steve Nash, but how many are?

 

I'm willing to withhold judgement...We've been over this and the options available for replacing him outside of CP3 and Bledsoe are slim....I believe he'll make us forget about wanting to replace him at all.

I know there aren't many options for replacing him. however the rockets should try because he can't get the job done. he did make some progress this year, but not nearly enough to warrant settling in as the permanent starter......his grade for this year......C-

[Richards]

Lin deserves at least one more year since this was his first full season as starter and progressed well throughout the season.

 

We need another superstar to contend but where is the best place to fill?

Already got a superstar in back court, and ideally adding front court superstar is what we need.

 

Lin, Parsons, Asik are very good teammates and role players.

Lin proved he can at least be a sixth man.

[rockets best fan]

Lin deserves at least one more year since this was his first full season as starter and progressed well throughout the season.

 

We need another superstar to contend but where is the best place to fill?

Already got a superstar in back court, and ideally adding front court superstar is what we need.

 

Lin, Parsons, Asik are very good teammates and role players.

Lin proved he can at least be a sixth man.

true lin does have enough to be 6th man, but he makes to much for that. if he can't start then he should be traded. he did progress during the year, but not enough (IMO) to be considered starter material.

[manmythlegend]

true......but help is on the horizon at PF, not so at PG. sure bev is there, but lin makes to much to be a backup.

 

No one knows for sure what plans Morey has to shore up power forward this offseason, so to say that help is on the horizon may be presumptuous.  It wouldn't surprise me if they decide to stand pat with the players they have now, especially if Howard decides to sign with Houston.

 

As for Lin, he is just a bad fit here in Houston.  But to say he is a backup on this team may be a bit of a stretch. He averaged 15p and 6a on 45% shooting and 38% from 3 point land.  Those aren't backup numbers; guys like Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are for some reason better regarded around the League, yet they have a tough time cracking the 40% shooting ceiling and look for their own shots before anyone elses. I would not take them, and a lot of other starting point guards in the NBA, over Lin.  

 

Point guard is the toughest position to master in the NBA because of the multiple responsibilities both offensively and defensively.  What works against Lin is that he was primarily a shooting guard in college, so there is a learning curve.  The tight leash that McHale has put on him will hopefully force Lin to work on taking care of the ball, becoming a more efficient outside shooter and better defender.  Luckily those are all things that players can improve upon over the course of time. Whether or not Lin does that by next season is up to him; if not, a lot of people will get their wish and see Lin shipped off to another team before his $14 million contract kicks in.

[rockets best fan]

@manmythlegend

I agree with you that they may stand pat with the PF's we have. I expect much improvement from the group next year with a full summer of work in the gym. that's why I think help is on the horizon. some here want j-smith, milsap or others......I don't. I think we will be just fine at PF given time. I am more concerned with the PG position.

[2016Champions]

http://instagram.com/p/ZV5OO5OP0Q/

 

The Asian Bane! gogo fighting!!

[manmythlegend]

http://instagram.com/p/ZV5OO5OP0Q/

 

The Asian Bane! gogo fighting!!

 

I'd rather see a picture of him in the middle of shooting a thousand treys and working on his dribbling...