574 replies to this topic

[Rahat Huq]

I closed the other thread to start this one as quite a few developments have occurred in these past few weeks.

 

From even the most objective of angles through which I examine it, I just don't see how we are not the frontrunners at this moment to land Dwight Howard.

 

To begin, the conventional wisdom as to the finances has rather drastically shifted.  A month or so ago, most people were parroting the point that the Lakers stood to be able to offer Howard $30million more.  Now the impact of the net difference after tax is almost universally being discussed.  Just now of late, the idea of Howard actually being able to opt out after Year 3 and sign a new max deal has crept its way into the spectrum of discourse.  As more leaks to the media are perpetuated, I expect this to become common knowledge among even the least up-to-date of the talking heads as well.  

 

A couple of sub-issues here:

• Howard can opt out after Y3, at age 30, and sign another full max.  But does he now, at 27, after experiencing the first real signs of mortality of his career last season, believe that he will be worth another full max at 30?  I personally don't think this is a big issue because athletes tend to suffer from overconfidence bias.  
• His new max after opting out with LA would be higher than his new max after opting out with us, because it would be ontop of the gross figure, which with LA, is obviously higher.  To what extent this is negated by the tax difference, I am not sure.  

 

The basketball aspect has been beaten to death already.  Rockets with Howard would be looking at probable immediate contention.  Lakers might not make the playoffs.  

 

As far as I'm concerned, it seems like the Lakers are pinning their hopes on legacy and guilt.  "If you leave, everyone will hate you."....and..."we're the Lakers.  we always turn it around."  Not really many substantive logic-based arguments as to why Dwight should return.

 

I think the wildcard in this whole thing is the remote possibility of a surprise D'Antoni firing/PJax hiring.  If they bring in Jackson, I think Lakers can become the favorite again to retain Howard.  

 

Finally, an interesting peripheral aspect to this whole thing is the debate as to what should be done with Asik once it is time for that bridge to be crossed.  I am of the opinion that the two cannot play together, but I am also of the opinion that he is more valuable than Josh Smith who will soon begin to decline.  Keeping Asik, even as a backup, allows for 48 minutes of elite paint protection and insurance against a Howard injury.  However, Asik's trade value will never be higher, and it is probably not the best asset/value allocation to allot $8million into a 20 minute backup player.

 

What do you all think?  My gut tells me Howard will be signing here and we will be discussing our championship odds in a few months.  My gut has often been very wrong.

 

 

[RollingWave]

I really don't know, Dwight Howard is generally not a really predictable person.

[timetodienow1234567]

I hope we land either LA, Cousins, or someone similar for Asik.

[timetodienow1234567]

Unless Asik or Dwight learn to hit a jumper consistently, this team will struggle mightily. Orlando had both Dwight and Gortat. They couldn't play both of them together since they are both poor jumpshooters.

[Mario Peña]

First of all I have to refute the contention that Asik's value has peaked. If anything you give him a run in a 4 man fast offense with the elite single center (they will be more of a Permanent Tower than a Twin Tower) always on the floor with the ability to go Twin Towers (to matchup against the Grizzlies, Bulls, Pacers and Spurs or to pound on small ball/3 point shooting teams like Miami, Golden State and New York). Asik should improve and considering he will be playing with Howard he may have much better chance to stay healthy and not wear down. Also in that reserve role he should still retain a healthy amount of mystique as to how good he could be thus keeping his trade value high especially if the team succeeds.

I say you give Asik at least one year with Howard to see how it plays out.

With regards to Howard I also believe he looks to be coming to join Harden to lead the Rockets into the next winning era here in Houston. Everything points to him coming here: respectable market with international ties, young playoff team, owner with money, great front office, all time great NBA big as coach and most importantly NBA superstar James Harden.

[manmythlegend]

Both Asik and Howard are poor free throw shooters as well...so there are conceivable scenarios that exist where you could possibly have $30 million combined dollars sitting on the bench in the 4th quarter to negate Hack-a-Dwight/Omer strategies.

The tax benefits of playing in Texas are obvious, yet there are two things that make me think that this is very low on Howard's reasons for choosing Houston. One, I've read that the tax savings only apply when a player plays games in the state of Texas. So that would be 45 games (41 home games and four road games at Dallas and SA).

Here's a quote from a Yahoo sports article that covers the topic thoroughly:

"If you live in Florida, the taxes you pay to those other states is really taking money out of your pocket because you're not going to get a credit for those state taxes," he says. "If you live in a nontax state, you could easily end up paying state tax on 60 (percent) to 65 percent of your earned income from the team, even though you don't have a tax in the state you reside in."

(Source: http://m.yahoo.com/w...=us&.lang=en-us)

What I gathered from that article is basically that Howard will definitely save money, but it doesn't sound as if he will save as substantial of an amount that has been discussed.

Another point made by the article: any income generated by Howard from endorsements and outside interests is taxed based on his state of residence. If Howard maintains his residence in Florida, then he moving to Texas wouldn't necessarily add any additional benefit. His endorsement opportunities may also take a hit by leaving the LA market.

The 2nd reason why I think the tax savings thing is a bit overrated is that this has been an inherit advantage of playing in either Florida or Texas for years, yet aside of Lebron leaving Cleveland for Miami, it hasn't exactly resulted in a cornucopia of elite FAs signing on with the Texas teams. I haven't seen too many NBA FAs in their prime leave LA either. There's a reason why LA & NY are considered destination markets for athletes.

So that additional 5th year and $30 million the Lakers can offer may not be so insignificant after all. If Howard shows clear evidence of decline by the 3rd year of his deal (which will be his 12th season - no big man in recent years have produced at a level similar to their peak seasons by that point in their careers), it's no guarantee that he will be offered a max contract if he does opt out. He will likely not approach anything annually that will be close to $30 million.

As for the remote possibility of Jackson becoming head coach, well, I suppose anything is possible. Yet Jackson will be 68 when the next season starts, & he will not be coaching a roster that will be anything close to a championship contender. He sort of reminds me of Brett Favre in this manner...the "will he or won't he come back?" thing has, like PJax, gotten old.

Purely from a roster standpoint, joining Houston is the obvious move. Houston though will have to change the way they play and slow the game down in order to accomodate Howard, who will demand his touches in the paint. I doubt Howard will leave one run'n'gun style for another. This will benefit the Rockets in the long run, but Harden and Parsons will find themselves altering their style of play.

[rockets best fan]

@feelingsupersonic

I agree the rockets will take a long look at howard and asik this first year before deciding whether or not to move asik. the potential benefit can not just be brushed aside without at least taking a look at it.

as for howard I have been saying we have a shot to get him for a long time now. I believed even when no one else did. I have debated posters on this forum about our chances and look, now it's the lakers who spend sleepless night worrying if howard will leave. like rahat said above the lakers only argument relies on guilt and the 5year contract. howard like all stars wants to win. we give him the best option to do that. the money is always a factor, but once the the real cpa's got involved the money figures turned out to be a lot closer than the propaganda the lakers were spreading. there are some who believe howard will begin breaking down after he arrives.........I don't. I think he will be fine and continue to deliver his numbers for at least another7 years. that's opening a championship window for a good long time.

[Mason Khamvilay]

My thoughts:

 

• Dwight is leaning towards Houston, Parsons and Harden have been huge in the recruiting process.
• Signing Dwight requires more than alot of people here realize, trading Thomas Robinson won't be enough (see HERE and I've done the math to confirm this). Royce White needs to be included in the deal. 
• Might trade Asik instead, his current value is higher than T-Rob's, and this would allow us to keep Greg Smith and James Anderson (possibly Aaron Brooks too depending on whether or not we take back guaranteed salary in the trade)
•  Whether or not we want Dwight shouldn't even be a question, was a consensus top 5 player 2 years ago and will be again when healthy and used to his strengths (pick and roll, cuts, rebounding, defense).

[Rahat Huq]

^On that point, I'm really setting myself up for some serious disappointment, but it's surreal to think that, based on where the Rockets were at this point last year, they could have two top 10 players on their roster, once again, in a few months, one of whom is just a year removed from being considered a top 3 player.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I was thinking the same thing yesterday, it really is surreal. We went from perennial mediocrity to being ranked 3rd on ESPN future power rankings in the blink of an eye. 

 

Typically I wouldn't want to get my hopes up with all this talk about Dwight, but I feel like I can afford to because our future seems so secure with or without Dwight. If he doesn't get on board this train it's his loss more than it is ours imo, getting him will merely speed up our inevitable ascent towards contention.

 

Instead of 2016 champions we can be 2014 champions. 

[rockets best fan]

My thoughts:

 

• Dwight is leaning towards Houston, Parsons and Harden have been huge in the recruiting process.
• Signing Dwight requires more than alot of people here realize, trading Thomas Robinson won't be enough (see HERE and I've done the math to confirm this). Royce White needs to be included in the deal. 
• Might trade Asik instead, his current value is higher than T-Rob's, and this would allow us to keep Greg Smith and James Anderson (possibly Aaron Brooks too depending on whether or not we take back guaranteed salary in the trade)
•  Whether or not we want Dwight shouldn't even be a question, was a consensus top 5 player 2 years ago and will be again when healthy and used to his strengths (pick and roll, cuts, rebounding, defense).

2016 you are right I stand corrected the rockets will be just a little short moving t-rob only. the site you posted is only larry's Q&A, but I crossed into Houston's salary cap page. this might be why t-rob has not already been moved. what the rockets are likely trying to do is attach Royce white's contract along with enough cash to pay it out to a t-rob deal freeing themselves of his headache as well. so in reality a team needs about 5.5 mil cap space to give the rockets what they desire

[LashtonBryth]

My thoughts:

 

• Dwight is leaning towards Houston, Parsons and Harden have been huge in the recruiting process.
• Signing Dwight requires more than alot of people here realize, trading Thomas Robinson won't be enough (see HERE and I've done the math to confirm this). Royce White needs to be included in the deal. 
• Might trade Asik instead, his current value is higher than T-Rob's, and this would allow us to keep Greg Smith and James Anderson (possibly Aaron Brooks too depending on whether or not we take back guaranteed salary in the trade)
•  Whether or not we want Dwight shouldn't even be a question, was a consensus top 5 player 2 years ago and will be again when healthy and used to his strengths (pick and roll, cuts, rebounding, defense).

 

His calculations are based on a 58.5 million dollar cap.  Most experts tend to think it will be more like 60 million, so the Rockets will probably be able to hang on to Smith, let their other non-guarantees go, trade Thomas Robinson for a trade exception and a future draft pick, and have 20.5 million to sign Howard.

[rockets best fan]

His calculations are based on a 58.5 million dollar cap.  Most experts tend to think it will be more like 60 million, so the Rockets will probably be able to hang on to Smith, let their other non-guarantees go, trade Thomas Robinson for a trade exception and a future draft pick, and have 20.5 million to sign Howard.

NO 2016 is right. the rockets can get down to the necessary amount. the problem is the cap holds for the vacant roster spots. each will be 474 thousand. when they are added in they still leave the rockets a little short of the necessary amount

 

after more thought on this...........the rockets either will move a combination of players or will move 1 player who covers the entire amount. I was thinking near the trade deadline when there were rumors of the rockets trying to move t-jones. however when the dust settled pp and mm were the one's gone and t-jones was still here. JG, 2016 and myself recently had a conversation base on the subject of how deceptive some of morey's actions can be. might t-rob just be the smoke screen?

[Cooper]

If trob is the smokescreen that means asik is most likely gone or possibly Lin I guess but its really risky to end up trading asik and Dwight changing his mind.

[LashtonBryth]

NO 2016 is right. the rockets can get down to the necessary amount. the problem is the cap holds for the vacant roster spots. each will be 474 thousand. when they are added in they still leave the rockets a little short of the necessary amount

 

after more thought on this...........the rockets either will move a combination of players or will move 1 player who covers the entire amount. I was thinking near the trade deadline when there were rumors of the rockets trying to move t-jones. however when the dust settled pp and mm were the one's gone and t-jones was still here. JG, 2016 and myself recently had a conversation base on the subject of how deceptive some of morey's actions can be. might t-rob just be the smoke screen?

 

The information we have at the moment is that Morey is moving Robinson to clear cap room.  He knows the combination of players that he needs to move to get to 20.5 million and probably has some idea what the new salary cap is going to be.  If Robinson is not enough to clear the space needed and they are forced to trade Asik, then why move Robinson at all? (unless they want to sign Howard and someone like Milsap or they need the extra space to fill out the roster).  

[Mason Khamvilay]

I don't know who these "experts" are saying the cap will be 60m, but Larry Coon is the expert among experts--he's the guy who writes the CBA FAQ's that even experts use as a guide. Here's a snippet from Wikipedia: 

 

The NBA Players Association provides the entire CBA for fans to inspect,^[7] but simply links to Coon's website for users who have specific questions about the contents of the CBA.^[8] In The Book of Basketball, sportswriter Bill Simmons calls Coon an "Internet hero" for his detailed, 40,000 word site.^[9] TNT's David Aldridge lists Coon among the innovators of the Basketball Blogosphere which he called the NBA innovation of the decade.^[10]Aldridge also lists Coon among the power players of the 2010 free agent market.^[11]

In July 2011 Sports Illustrated named Coon to their Twitter 100 which lists the 100 most essential people in the sports world to follow on Twitter.

 

There's still a chance the NBA will change their mind about what the cap will be, but according to Coon's chats the NBA has already told GM's that the cap will be 58.5m and it's only a matter of time before the official announcement is made. 

[rockets best fan]

If trob is the smokescreen that means asik is most likely gone or possibly Lin I guess but its really risky to end up trading asik and Dwight changing his mind.

I highly doubt the rockets trade asik as in he is their insurance against not getting howard.....now lin that's another story

[Mario Peña]

I agree with you rockets best fan. Lin is probably the best option to be traded away since despite being a good player he is definitely not essential and as for his leadership he had provided well that is easily replaced considering this team is still in it's formative years. I hope they can dump Lin on someone even though I have a feeling it may not be him.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I think we can get alot more in return for Asik than we can for Lin, and Dwight's arrival makes Asik expendable, so logically it makes alot more sense to trade Asik imo.

 

The question in my mind is whether or not Dwight will still want to sign if we trade Asik to make room, didn't Dwight say he wants to play with Asik? If that's the case then I think we keep Asik at least for now, we can trade Asik in the next off-season or before the deadline. One thing is for sure, by 2015 Asik will have a starting role and a bigger contract--whether or not that's in Houston depends on Dwight.

[Mario Peña]

I agree that Asik would have a slightly better return but you need Asik in case Dwight changes his mind at the last minute or signals he would like Asik as a backup (Howard still needs a good back up considering he is coming off back problems, probably still a year away from being able to push him hard). Plus I think you have to give Asik and Howard some run together just to see how it goes, at least till February. Asik seems more like a core piece than Lin who still seems to be trying to find himself. Lin would have been a nice piece but due to circumstances he is more of an asset now than a player. Harden and Dwight could be great together.