James Harden’s line last night: 45 points (on 22 attempts!), 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 3 turnovers.
How many players this postseason would you guess had a better line? (Where “better line” is assessed according to Basketball Reference’s Game Score, which measures a player’s production/efficiency taking all box score statistics into account.)
The answer: 0.
It is highly unlikely that any player this postseason will outdo what Harden did last night. Not even LeBron’s 37-18-13 game came close (mainly because LeBron took 37 attempts compared to Harden’s 22).
How many players would you guess had a better postseason line this CENTURY?
The answer: 8.
Here they are:
Dirk (3x, ages 22, 27, and 32)
LeBron (2x, both at age 24)
Kobe (2x, ages 22 and 29)
Allen Iverson (2x, ages 25 and 27)
Shaq (2x, ages 26 and 28)
Paul Pierce (1x, age 24)
Vince Carter (1x, age 24)
Karl Malone (1x, age 36)
Maybe it’s a fluke. Maybe Harden got unusually hot one night — e.g., sinking 80 footers — and he does not actually belong on a list with these [future] hall of famers. Maybe. But his performance over the full season suggests otherwise.
James Harden’s regular season averages: 27.4 points (on 18.1 attempts), 5.7 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 4.0 turnovers.
How many players would you guess had a better regular season statline this CENTURY? (Where “better line” is assessed using PER, WS/48, and VORP, all of which measure a player’s production/efficiency taking multiple box score statistics into account.)
The answer: 6.
LeBron (5x, ages 24, 25, 27, 28, and 29)
Chris Paul (2x, ages 22 and 23)
Kevin Durant (2x, ages 24 and 25)
Kevin Garnett (1x, age 27)
Tracy McGrady (1x, age 23)
Steph Curry (1x, age 26)
In the words of Clyde Drexler, “The Beard is really good, guys.”
You can look up all of this for yourself using Basketball Reference’s Play Index.
Even ignoring this year, even looking further back in history — back before Harden was a Rocket, when he warmed benches in favor of Thabo Sefolosha — even with all of those seasons included in the assessment, Harden still ends up looking like he is on pace to be not just a hall of famer, but potentially one of the top 20 players of the past 50 years. For evidence, see my posts from last season here and here.
Regardless of how this series ends, you have to be bullish on the Rockets’ future. There is no longer any reasonable doubt that Harden is good enough to be the best player on a championship team.
