I think James has a legitimate shot - he basically has the same team as the Pelicans last year, and they were terrible, even with a supposed MVP candidate on board. (Another parallel - Gentry plays D'Antoni's system). So if we're actually a top 4 seed, then yeah, he's got a definite shot, but he needs to be at least not a negative on the defensive end.
One guy you didn't mention, and normally, I would not either, but what about Kyrie Irving? He was the best player on the floor in Game 6 last year - and that's saying something when you're sharing the floor with Lebron, Curry, Thompson, and Green. I expect Lebron to coast again, so why not Irving? He has the same defensive issues as Harden (but he's not picked on as badly).
I think Westbrook will go gangbusters, but he might just end up wearing himself out over an 82 game system. He will probably have a historic October and slump off after the New Year (but maybe not - he's a freak in a league full of them).
Other Dark Horses - what if Wiggins or Towns makes the leap? Jimmy Butler is a deeeeeep sleeper, given whose around him. What if Al Horford leads Boston to a #1 seed (do I think he can win? no way, but maybe in Brad Stevens' system and if the Cavs sleepwalk through the season). Damian Lillard? Chandler Parsons (jk!)
I 100% agree on Irving (and have him on my short list). I think he is breaking out this year.
Here's the thing about the MVP--at least to me. It doesn't matter much. It's an individual accolade in a team sport. You know what would be better? A trophy for best "team play". Not the team with the most wins. Not the last team standing. The team that best exemplified what it is to be selfless--to play as a single unit. The players that best embody the sport. And not an afterthought--make it a big deal--make it matter.
The MVP trophy might as well be a sack of balloons with the winner's face on them and a helium tank so that he can inflate his ego any time he wants--figuratively and literally. I mean, does anyone care how it feels to the other guys on the team? Basically, they are being told that without so-and-so they are trash. Heck, that is the leading argument coming from Rockets' fans. True or not, it's kind of a jerk thing to do.
I'd rather see more sportsmanship awards. Coaches spend all year trying to mold a team and the good values that come with that from our youth--and then the NBA spotlights not one, but two MVP's during the playoffs. Message: individuals get the glory. If I were a youth basketball coach I'd be pissed.
Sorry for the soapbox rant. There is no denying Harden gets snubbed. Yet, I feel no pity for him. If he left his heart on the floor every night the people would love him. Whether or not he does--nobody will ever know. He's Rod Tidwell. (yes, that's a Jerry Maguire reference) He needs a Rod Tidwell moment (or two) to shift the paradigm.
Maybe I'd feel different if it was a different player. There is no denying Harden is not my favorite guy these days--not even close. That's the thing--my kind of guy wouldn't care one bit about any of that stuff. He'd be angry and embarrassed about last season and not worried about any ALL-NBA teams, trophies, or other stuff like that.