As soon as it became clear that Dwight Howard would no longer be a part of their future, sometime back mid-season, the Houston Rockets’ plan had been to pair Al Horford and Kevin Durant together using the expected $46 million of cap space they would have had available to them this summer. After suffering the grave indignity of not even being granted a meeting by Durant, Houston quickly moved to Plan B, securing meetings with Horford and swingman Kent Bazemore. Then, after being shunned by those Hawks, they came to terms with Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.
With the signings, the Rockets are improved. They’ll have a top-5 offense. (They were 7th last year featuring a lineup that included essentially just James Harden). But at a thematic level, the predictable outcome represents the difficulty inherent to attempting to build a team through free agency. By its very nature, free agency is a crap shoot. Each summer, there are only so many free agents, most of whom typically stay with the same team; and in a summer like this one, most everyone in the league has cap space. Those aren’t exactly optimal market conditions for a buyer. A popular outcry among Rockets fans is that “no star player wants to come play in Houston, with Harden [and Howard].” While that may be the case, that it hasn’t happened doesn’t make the statement necessarily true – it just seems that way because the Rockets always put themselves in a position to try each summer. And just by the sheer odds, they are likely to strike out each time, as would any other team. Dwight Howard was the exception, not the rule.
You want to supplement through free agency–and Anderson and Gordon are supplementary pieces–but build the backbone of your team through the draft and trades. And Houston didn’t get much return from its previous drafts this past season. After early success in the form of Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry, there have been a lot of misses for Daryl Morey. 2008 was Joey Dorsey, Marty Leunen, and Nic Batum, the latter of whom turned into Ron Artest by way of later trade. In 2009, Jermaine Taylor and Sergio Llull (to date) were misses, though Chase Budinger later turned into Terrence Jones. 2010’s Patrick Patterson essentially turned into cap space (Thomas Robinson), as did 2011’s Marcus Morris. In ’11, they also got Donatas Motiejunas, by way of Nikola Mirotic, but the former wasn’t a contributor this season due to injuries. Chandler Parsons that year also indirectly turned into Trevor Ariza who himself drastically declined. In 2012, Jeremy Lamb was one of the key pieces to acquiring James Harden, but Royce White and Terrence Jones (via Budinger earlier) were both virtual non-contributors this season. 2013’s Isaiah Canaan became K.J. McDaniels, who barely broke the rotation. In 2014, Capela was gold struck, but Nick Johnson was a whiff, as was Ty Lawson who was acquired for Johnson and this year’s pick. And lastly, neither Sam Dekker or Montrezl Harrell, last year’s draft picks, had any impact at all.
A team, of course, cannot hit on every draft pick. But you need at least three or four to pan out to build a lasting infrastructure under cheap club control over a certain duration of time. That continuity in turn engenders chemistry and growth. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Festus Ezili were all homegrown products. Bogut was acquired in trade, and Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala were supplementary free agent additions.
More than hoping for the best in 2017 free agency, Houston now needs internal growth more than anything. But the avenues are limited. Harden will be Harden, a top-3 offensive player, in the prime of his career. But Clint Capela will have to prove capable of filling the void left by Dwight Howard’s departure. If he’s (hopefully) brought back, Motiejunas will need to regain his 2015 trajectory. And perhaps most importantly, two from the group of Dekker, Harrell, and McDaniels will have to crack the rotation and provide meaningful minutes if the Rockets want to ascend. Ariza, Beverley, and Brewer all have maxed their respective ceilings – one can only hope that their contributions at least revert closer to career norms from last season.
Houston’s offense will be magnificent, with Dwight Howard out, and Ryan Anderson in, creating more room for James Harden to operate. We will finally see James Harden playing next to pure shooters. And aside from his shooting, Eric Gordon can serve as the secondary playmaker the team has lacked since Chandler Parsons’ departure. The injury history is a major gamble, but Gordon’s is a very reasonable pricetag for a player of his abilities. I was downright giddy yesterday evening when that particular signing was finalized. Unlike Ty Lawson, who was brought in to create for James Harden, Eric Gordon can be useful in allowing James Harden to create for him. While I used Bradley Beal as my example, I said last year that I envisioned a lineup where James Harden actually was the point guard (as opposed to just the de facto point guard), with an actual shooter playing next to him. To that end, just putting an actual shooting guard next to Harden (Gordon is just a year removed from hitting 45% on 3’s) ends the charade of needing to find a point guard who can shoot, maximizing Harden’s abilities. While they probably won’t start together, I expect the pair to close games as a tandem. But of course, the question is whether Gordon can stay healthy. The Rockets, in desperate need of talent, weren’t in a position to turn their nose up at that risk.
I wasn’t as bullish on the Anderson signing because of his defensive limitations. Jeff Bzdelik will have his work cut out for him, and there will now be more pressure on Clint Capela than ever to make up for others’ mistakes. Can a team go far with Ryan Anderson and James Harden occupying 2/5 of its starting lineup? Under Mike D’Antoni, I have my doubts. On the face of it, the Houston Rockets look like a team with a 45-win/first-round-exit ceiling. But with Dwight Howard gone, why can’t the Rockets re-create the chemistry that won 56 games in 2015? The personnel across the board is improved, with the key actors returning. The offense will be so good that it will carry the Rockets on most nights. And perhaps, with a more involved, distributive offense, effort at the other end will improve, as D’Antoni himself theorized at his welcoming presser. We can only hope. One thing is clear: simply having Harden alone assures at a bare minimum 40 wins.
The collective reaction to this weekend’s outcome is naturally one of disappointment. Houston and its fans were holding onto hope for something far greater, that would help thrust them back towards the upper echelon. That outcome was unlikely, and it didn’t happen. But the Rockets improved as a team yesterday. Now, they’ll need internal growth if they want to climb more and build something lasting.