Walker: Getting to the second round is good, but going all the way is better. What’s the single biggest factor going against Houston making the finals?
McGuire: I can’t decide between lack of depth or lack of shooting. Josh Smith is just a coin flip. When Smith is good, like he was against Dallas, he’s awesome. When Smith is not good, he actively hurts the Rockets with crazy passes and his infamous shooting. Brewer can also be hit and miss from game to game, and you can’t coin flip your way to the NBA Finals.
On the other hand, I’ve railed about Houston’s lack of shooting for this entire season. The closest Houston has to a knock-down shooter is Terry. The Warriors have a pair of decent shooters and the Clippers have Redick. Even the Grizzlies have Courtney Lee, though the Grizzlies don’t matter because they’ll be lucky to last six games against the Warriors without Mike Conley.
Felker: The Rockets are streak shooters for the most part, but because of the way they play the percentages I think it would be difficult to go cold enough as a team to lose a series just off of that. My biggest concern is consistently generating points out of the halfcourt.
Their shooting certainly plays a part in that, but Corey Brewer corner threes are always Plan B to James Harden’s offense. The Rockets are just too dependent on Harden, especially without Donatas Motiejunas and to a much lesser extent Patrick Beverley. It might not matter much against the Clippers and their middling defense, but even they have Matt Barnes and Chris Paul to throw at Harden on big possessions. The Warriors will be an entirely different story, however, what with all their 6’7+ wings to choose from. Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green should all be able to stay fresh while constantly harassing Harden.
He will have to be superhuman offensively to carry this team all the way to the Finals.
Dover: I think it is point guard play. With Beverley injured, Houston has by far the worst rotation at the position left in the playoffs (I guess if Conley doesn’t make it back there’s an argument for Memphis, but it’s pretty clear cut otherwise). To a certain extent you can mitigate this by switching, but there are going to be possessions where the Rockets are forced to match up either the 37 year old Terry or the 38 year old Prigioni against Chris Paul or Steph Curry. Those are unlikely to end well.
Li: The Rockets don’t have an offensive system. This is pretty much rephrasing Mitchell’s concern that the Rockets struggle to generate points in the half-court. Against Dallas, Houston scored roughly 25% of their points in transition against an older, slower team undergoing a family feud meltdown. That won’t be the case against the Clippers. Chris Paul is currently on pace to turn the ball over once every other game. Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin both run like gazelles. These circumstances will limit transition opportunities and the cherry picking that Corey Brewer loves so much.
If it comes down to offensive execution, the Rockets are going to be severely handicapped versus the most offensively efficient team in the league. Houston’s half-court offense is basically–1) Harden tries to score, 2) Harden passes to someone and hopefully that guy scores, 3) someone jacks up a three. That’s not good enough.
McGuire: So, it’s the Clippers. Why do the Rockets win this series? And why do they lose?
Felker: Win or lose, the answer has to be Dwight, doesn’t it? The way he’s played since coming back from his latest DL stint has been exciting, to say the least. People have written off “Orlando Dwight” for so long that most don’t want to believe he’s back, and really, who can blame them. Just don’t include me in that group.
He’s running, jumping and doing the dirty work like he was born to do. And now he gets the one guy that’s on his level athletically. If Dwight wants to take back his throne, he needs to thoroughly outplay DeAndre Jordan. Because Howard isn’t calling for the ball constantly, his rebounding is up. Howard and J-Smoove have looked downright Lob City-ish and he still has the ability to lock things down on defense. Jordan’s best season is Dwight’s worst, and there’s no real reason for this to be a toss up.
Before he became a running joke to people that weren’t quite paying enough attention, Howard was the most feared man in the league. He battled injuries but has flashed his former self for a month now. If he can get there and stay there, there really is no ceiling for the Rockets. Consider the gauntlet thrown.
Walker: The short answer is that the Rockets are very good. The long answer is that they have a defense that guards the perimeter, a primary scorer that’s unstoppable, and a deep enough bench to put the hurt on anyone. The long answer involves the fact that Chris Paul hurt his hamstring, and like seemingly every other starting point guard in the playoffs, will now be battling injury. Pile that onto a shaky bench and a starting lineup that is starting to feel the effects of fatigue, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston wins the first two games.
Houston’s doom would come from the Clippers being able to overwhelm the Rockets up front. Houston has been strangely poor at rebounding lately, and the Clippers will pounce all over that. If Houston can’t keep Los Angeles from grabbing every offensive board and flushing every lob, this series may be over before the Clippers’ starters fully drain of energy. If the Rockets don’t capitalize on any games or minutes Chris Paul misses, they’re shooting themselves in the foot.
Dover: There are two areas where the Rockets match up well with the Clippers. There is no obvious defender to slow down Harden and the Clipper bench is weak. To win this series, the team needs to exploit those two advantages.
The Clippers know they don’t have a primary defender who can check Harden, so they use a defensive scheme that tilts the focus of the rest of the defense towards slowing him down. Defenders take an extra step off their man and they keep a weakside defender (usually Jordan) primed to come over for the shot block. Harden should be good enough to find the players this strategy leaves open – he just has to avoid getting frustrated and putting too much on his back. His performance in the last round against Dallas is an encouraging sign that he’ll make the right decision when it really matters.
The Rockets’ bench should be feasting on the weakness of their counterparts when the starters sit. While the Clippers do their best to limit transition opportunities by getting back instead of contesting the offensive glass (a boon for the Rockets who haven’t been great at protecting their boards this season), if the long arms of Brewer, Ariza and Smith can get in the passing lanes they should be able to get the Greyhound off to the races. Davis may be nimble for his size, but I don’t think he can keep up with Smith off the dribble, so I would back Josh to have a good series.
Li: Rockets win if:
- Chris Paul is hurt;
- The Clippers starters are running on fumes after World War 3 vs the Spurs;
- Two Rockets pull a Marco Belinelli in separate games, despite no Rockets being as good as Marco Belinelli at shooting;
- Harden crushes.
Rockets lose if:
- Clippers limit Rockets’ transition opportunities;
- Howard feels like he has something to prove against Jordan (read, Howard posts up to demonstrate his “dominance”);
- They can’t find someone to run with JJ Redick. This, I think, is an underrated storyline. Guarding Redick is a pain in the ass. It’s basically non-stop running and the defender can’t afford to lose focus for even a split second. The Spurs split this annoying responsibility between Leonard and Green. Can Ariza do this for a whole series? If so, who guards Paul?
Who is the most important role player in this series? (i.e., not Harden, Howard, Griffin, or Paul).
McGuire: Jason Terry. Not just for his three-point shooting, but more for the problem of who does he guard at the beginning of the game? Terry guarding Chris Paul might be a slight problem, and Terry is too small to hide on Matt Barnes. So, does Houston place Terry on J.J. Redick? As Li just noted, guarding Redick is going to be very difficult and involve non-stop running. Can you really expect a 37-year old to fill such a defensive burden?
Walker: It’s Trevor Ariza and it’s not even close. He’s the alternator in the Rockets’ engine this season. He’s not flashy or powerful, but if he’s not clicking the engine can’t even get started. He’s been on a pretty raw shooting slump lately, and the Rockets still buried Dallas in five. He’s mission critical to have on the floor as much as possible for defensive reasons, and if he can provide some shooting and spacing on the offensive end, the Rockets are sitting pretty.
Dover: So many choices…I’m going to go with Josh Smith. We saw in the Dallas series how he can provide an extra dimension to the team’s play when he’s on his game. There should be times in this series where he’ll be the best player on the court – when the benches are in he should be dominating. Get consistent production out of him and I think the Rockets have enough firepower to overcome the Clippers’ top-heavy attack.
Felker: Corey Brewer. He’s a catalyst for the second unit, with his scoring and ability to fly around on defense. He’s the one of the few Rockets that can get easy buckets for himself, simply by running the floor as hard as anyone in the league, even capitalizing when the defense gets back in time. Plus, I think he’ll guard CP3 on big, end-of-game possessions.
Dover: The Rockets have had a poor record in the recent past against the Clippers. Why do you think that is, and what do you think the team is most likely to do differently in search of a series win?
McGuire: Do we actually have a poor record? I mean, sure the Rockets of the past struggled the Clippers. But the Rockets of the past also beat down the Warriors, and I don’t think any of us are enthused at having to face them next round.
Houston went 2-2 against the Clippers this season, and did not have Howard for any of those games. True, Blake wasn’t himself in some of those games, but the Howard we’ve seen in these playoffs is just as good as Blake.
I noted in our Round 1 roundtable that I thought the Clippers were an easier matchup than the Spurs machine, and I still hold by it. As long as Houston can make their threes and do all the stuff that we know this team can do, we can defeat the Clippers. Especially so given Chris Paul’s situation.
Walker: Harden’s career numbers against the Clippers are horrifying. The better question is why Harden’s been bad against LA his entire career until this year. Maybe he stays up late in Los Angeles, maybe Blake Griffin’s presence is like kryptonite, or maybe it’s just coincidence. Whatever it is extended well past the tenure of Matt Barnes, JJ Redick, Chris Paul and Doc Rivers, and whatever it is seems to have dried up this season. The Rockets finally have a match for DeAndre Jordan in Dwight Howard, and it may be as simple as that.
Felker: Before this season I really think it was simply that the Clippers had better chemistry. Their core had been together for a few years, Jordan and Griffin matured while playing with Chris Paul, taking their cues from him and playing his game. Not to mention, these last few years were the most athletic versions of Paul and Blake Griffin that will ever play together.
Meanwhile, Houston was constantly flipping over their roster, Harden wasn’t much for defense, and the Rockets just didn’t quite fit together. The roster makes sense now, Dwight has accepted his role and JJ Redick won’t run amok on Harden like he has in the past. The Clippers are still the same, but the Rockets have figured each other out.
Also, I never considered Walker’s point about Harden in Los Angeles, but that man definitely lives it up the 3-4 times he’s in LA during the season.
Li: I think most teams have a poor record against the Clippers recently because, you know, the Clippers are good. I’m not terribly concerned that the Rockets play more poorly against a good team than against lesser teams.
I’m going to call this the McHale vs Morey series. We will find out what the identity of this team truly is. The Clippers don’t have a glaring basketball weakness. They have good players in key roles and they are very good at modern basketball. Let’s see–pacey and spacey point guard play, dunk-defense-rebound big man, athletic stretchy power forward, annoyingly efficient three-point shooting–it’s all there.
I don’t think you can just nullify any of these components. The Rockets also don’t have the personnel to just blow the Clippers out of the water. Instead, the Rockets need to nip at the Clippers’ edges. The process needs to take prominence over the result. For instance, the world now knows that Griffin “can hit” that mid-range shot. Ahem, “can hit” is not the same as “should take.” While definitely better than league average, Griffin’s FG% on 16-24 ft mid-range shots this season was 40.56%. His FG% on those shots when he’s wide open (closest defender at least 6 ft away) is 42.21%, or 0.84 PPP. He’s basically become efficient at a very low-efficiency activity.
I don’t know about you, but I am totally OK with just leaving him wide open at that spot for the entire series (PS, he took more of those wide open shots than anyone else in the league, suggesting that other coaches might have caught onto this). But will McHale dare to do it? Is he going to listen to the old school talking heads who say you have to respect that shot? Or is he going to go full Morey and just trust the process and ignore any unsavory results that come along the way?
Another extrapolation of the above–Chris Paul shoots over 59% on the same wide open mid-range shot. So, if you’re Jones or Smith and you see Paul’s defender get picked off by Griffin, do you hedge on Paul and leave Griffin wide open at the elbow? HELL YES YOU DO. Over the course of twelve such possessions, that’s an average difference of two made field goals. It’s not much, but i bet the Spurs would love to have those four extra points. Will the Rockets be told to do that? We’ll see.
Finally, I say we hack the crap out of Jordan. If they come back and hack Dwight or Smith? So be it. That’s a 38% free throw shooter vs two 50%+ shooters (and their fouls are more valuable given their lack of depth). With enough repetitions, the process favors the Rockets.
Prediction Time: How many games does this series go, and do you have a bold prediction for Round 2? And what other series/player/matchup are you most interested in watching in Round 2?
Walker: I’m actually riding with Houston here. That’s not the general consensus, and I get why, but enough has happened in this series to call a Houston “upset.” (And can we note for a moment that the lower seed may end up as the favorite in both Clippers series so far?) The Clippers are a fantastic team and surely deserve all the faith people have in them, but I think the Rockets are better than people think, and I’m gonna go ahead and call the 2 seed making it to the conference finals. I mean, when’s the last time that happened? Rockets in 7.
Bold prediction? James Harden scores 50. Twice.
I’m interested, like everyone else, to see what happens with the Warriors. The Grizzlies without Conley are basically adrift in a sea of pain, but I think Memphis could make Steph Curry’s life a lot more miserable than people expect. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Griz steal a couple games based on sheer physicality and disruption.
McGuire: Bold prediction: Jones will not get totally destroyed by Blake Griffin. Griffin will certainly win this matchup, but I believe Jones with Howard sitting back there will be able to limit him to some degree.
As for a prediction for the series: the Chris Paul hamstring injury is the difference in this series. Never forget that when Daryl Morey was asked in a Reddit Ask me Anything who his all-time starting lineup would be, he picked Paul as his point guard. Not Magic Johnson. Not Oscar Robertson. Paul.
Paul is ridiculously good, as he showed in that gritty Game 7 win over the Spurs machine. But if he can be limited just a hair, then Houston’s better depth and wing rotation will do just enough to get this win.
Prediction: Rockets in 6. The longer this series goes, the less I like Houston’s chances.
As for the other series? I live in DC, so I’m going to have to say Wizards-Hawks. This season has been such an up and down roller coaster ride for a perpetually hapless team. But that Toronto sweep was unexpected and terrific. Meanwhile, Atlanta has been struggling to hit shots both against Brooklyn and in Game 1 yesterday.
Dover: Bold prediction: with Howard drawing all the attention from Jordan and Griffin, Terrence Jones has an excellent offensive series, averaging around 15 ppg.
Series prediction: The Clippers are banged up. The Rockets are too, but they have the depth to absorb it. Rockets steal one of the first two on the road and take it in 6, with Harden and Paul trading daggers down the stretch of the final game.
Most Intriguing Matchup: I want to watch Ariza trying to slow down Chris Paul. In the breakdown of their game I did a while back, I noted that Trevor was struggling to navigate the screens the Clippers were setting on him when trying to free Paul. Since Ariza will probably be taking the lion’s share of the defensive responsibility on CP3, whether or not he can improve in that department will go a long way to determining the outcome of the series.
Li: Bold prediction: JJ Redick will outscore Dwight Howard.
Series prediction: “The Clippers don’t have enough depth.” -Everyone, all season. “We won.” -Clippers, all season. Provided Paul is healthy, I think this is, unfortunately, where the ride ends. Clippers in six.
Most intriguing matchup: JJ Redick vs the field. It won’t be Ariza, because he’ll be on Paul. It won’t be Harden, because this is his achilles heel matchup, plus he needs his energy for offense. Terry and Prigioni are too old. Corey Brewer could. But Redick is going to play 40+ minutes, will Brewer?
Felker: Rockets in 6. I don’t believe a word saying that Paul will miss even one second with his injury. That noise about him never making it out of the second round in getting louder and he hears it. And I wonder how injured he actually is. Paul embellishes on a Paul Pierce-ian level, and Doc Rivers is full of it. They’re just giving themselves a scapegoat for when they go belly up again.
Having said that, maaaybe he is a little hobbled. Either way, I’ll take a rested team over a shaky seven-man rotation coming off one of the most grueling first rounds ever any day of the week. Doc Rivers will keep playing his guys 40+ minutes a game, because his only other option is Big Baby and Austin Rivers. Check Please.
And as for a bold prediction, I think Corey Brewer and Josh Smith by themselves will outscore the entire Clippers bench for the series.
And finally, I cannot wait for Bulls-Cavs. It lost some of its shine with the Kevin Love injury, but this one has been 3 years in the making. Rose won the MVP and was supposed to be the biggest hurdle for LeBron every year, but only got one shot at the Heatles before his knee injury. I feel like this exact series is why we were so disappointed that he kept getting hurt.
It may not be MVP vs MVP, and it certainly isn’t Miami-Chicago, but to me they are the two best teams in the East. If nothing else, at least Joakim Noah in Cleveland will be entertaining.
