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@  thejohnnygold : (29 September 2015 - 05:16 AM) FYI, it was media day today. Interviews are up at NBA.com
@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK
@  rockets best... : (14 September 2015 - 02:29 AM) I agree totally. I got to watch his Rocket days and the man was a hell of a player. BIG MO R.I.P.
@  Mario Peña : (13 September 2015 - 05:24 PM) Sad to see Moses pass. I don't remember watching him as a Rocket but I do remember his Philly and Hawks teams. He was the perfect man to mentor Dream. It's a very sad day for his family and friends and there are many.
@  majik19 : (12 September 2015 - 09:01 PM) i just saw a post wishing Yao Ming a happy 35th birthday... am I the only one whose mind is blown that he's only 35?
@  cointurtlemoose : (08 September 2015 - 01:17 AM) aaaah, thanks jorge
@  jorgeaam : (08 September 2015 - 12:21 AM) Love it how Hinkie and Morey always target the same players, but hoping he isn't another Covington
@  thejohnnygold : (08 September 2015 - 12:03 AM) Christian Wood has signed with Philly
@  jorgeaam : (07 September 2015 - 10:32 PM) If I'm not wrong, he hasn't been waived yet, they have until october 4th to do that
@  cointurtlemoose : (07 September 2015 - 05:39 PM) Anyone else surprised that Kostas hasn't gotten picked up by anyone yet? I wanna see that guy play somewhere
@  redfaithful : (05 September 2015 - 10:48 PM) Llull line from today loss to Serbia: 30MIN 1-10PG, 0-5 3PG, 4-4FT 6AST, 1TO, 4REB, +/- -11
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:27 AM) this dude's gun fired and all he got a misdemeanor at bush lol: http://abc13.com/new...ush-iah/815795/
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:26 AM) theres more articles all over, but the jist is houston (and texas) doesn't really arrest for it, they just recommend you leave it in your car when they catch it. So seems dwight got lucky he was in texas and not cali or the NE.
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:22 AM) honestly we should just be glad they caught it...
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:21 AM) response: http://nymag.com/dai...n_airplane.html
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 01:42 AM) one bullet left in the chamber is diff than fully loaded and ready to go. Still stupid...but not like he was prepared for a shooting spree.


Member Since 15 Jun 2013
Offline Last Active Sep 28 2015 06:46 PM

#48817 Buying a Championship.

Posted by Losthief on 04 August 2015 - 07:14 AM

yes....its a capped league so were not really buying anything...brooklyn was the last team to try and that did fail. We are only 6th in payroll right now which while certainly high is not ridiculous. Also we were 3rd or 4th lowest in cost per win last season, so we actually payed a low amount for wins. (Cavs and GSW were 1 and 2 iirc).

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#48746 The keys to the Houston Rockets' season: #4 - the evolution of James Harden

Posted by Losthief on 30 July 2015 - 04:11 AM

I'd rather worry about game limits than minutes. Say...75 games giving him rests down the stretch and back to back sometimes. Any 4 in 5 nights he needs to sit at least one, etc etc.

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#48732 The keys to the Houston Rockets' season: #3 - the emergence of Donatas Mo...

Posted by Losthief on 29 July 2015 - 07:34 AM

Ummm...DMO doesn't struggle against small ball fours defensively: http://nbasavant.com...layer_id=202700


Actually he struggles against centers (which he was playing out of position) such as Andrew Bogut, Hibbert, Jordan, et al.  The dude can't jump, that doesn't mean he can't move side to side quickly for a 7 footer. Athleticism in basketball isn't all about jumping...otherwise Gerald Green would be Lebron James....


Against small ball 4s (or stretch fours in general) such as Barnes, Draymond Green, Markieff and Marcus Morris, Aminu, Darell Arthur, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, etc. he held them all (or most) to under 50 percent shooting and usually under 40. That is not struggling. Could he improve his close outs, absolutely, is he too slow to guard guys on the pick and roll or on the perimeter, absolutely not. Neither is TJones for that matter, but TJones needs to work a bit on positioning on the pick and roll. He is an excellent close out though, DMO could learn a bit from Jones on that.


Ryan Anderson did well against DMO as did a couple of other stretch type 4s...but it is really size and especially strength that he needs to improve against, not speed/outside shooting. Guys/Stars such as LMA, Dirk, Griffin, Love etc all really struggled against him too. All the centers like Tyson Chandler, Bogut, DeAndre Jordan, et al do well cause he isn't strong enough/long enough to be a 5, but were not talking about him being one here. Zach Randolph also shot 50 percent (which is good).


Anthony Davis was great against him, and Paul Gasol and LBJ....but those are really great (offensively on the 2nd) players. Also Jordan Hill and Greg Monroe....which i can't explain except its the nba, lol.


But really, when playing/defending the 4 (which he did less last year w/ dwight out being forced to the 5 defensively) DMO rebounded at the league average rate (which isn't great but not horrible either and roughly the same as TJ) for his position and he defended extremely well. At center, he was much less effective both defensively and rebounding wise. But he's not a center (yet?) so....is that surprising.


Also, TJones is excellent, and he is better than DMO imho on offense (stats back that up) especially on efficiency, scoring, and non-shot creation for others aspects. TJones is also a decent defender, but struggles against those same big names and outside shooters DMO has done well against. Now, if PF was going to be a top 3 option for us on offense then sure...TJones is probably the better fit. As the 4th or later option (after Dwight, Harden, and Lawson) I'll take the defense and passing ability of DMO over the scoring ability of TJones in the starting lineup and use TJones scoring ability with the 2nd unit*. But really there is no wrong answer.


tjones: http://nbasavant.com...layer_id=203093


*TJones can also run the break way, way better than DMO ever will/could/has so with that 2nd unit of Lawson (?), brewer, McDaniels (?), Capela etc, I think he could be incredible taking the rebound and leading the break at times.

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#48657 Houston Rockets acquire Denver Nuggets guard Ty Lawson

Posted by Losthief on 20 July 2015 - 04:25 AM

Next years draft is supposed to be pretty weak, trading a late 2016 1st for a (probably) early 2017 2nd won't matter that much imho (might be a talent upgrade at that). Johnson/Papa are probably the best assets going out which is an absolute steal. Great pickup for the rockets. Certainly concerning about his habits and alcoholism is a serious hurdle, but its a low risk, high reward gamble that you have to make.


Honestly even if he doesn't work on the court i think he could work out as giving us a salary slot for trade for up to a 15.5 mil salary. And guess who makes 15.8 mil a year (a simple add of minimum salary guy). One DMC playing in Sacramento for a coach who hates him and loves, loves Lawson. Just saying.....as insurance that might be an option down the line. 


Hidden bonus, we have the roster slots to keep alan williams or glen rice jr. now if we want to I believe. Solid showings at the LVSL.

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#47180 Nets @ Rockets 27th February

Posted by Losthief on 27 February 2015 - 10:07 PM

rotoworld is really good for stuff like this: http://www.rotoworld...97/james-harden


they do it for fantasy purposes but i pay attention for other reasons.


rockets twitter though is also good.

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#46716 A (Reasonably) In Depth Analysis of Houston's Defense

Posted by Losthief on 03 February 2015 - 11:01 PM

That's the one I was looking for....guess I missed it....will try again.  I only found one that focused on rim defense rather than all across the court.


I'll have to pass on the $10K sportvu package :unsure: ....got a few other things that need attention first.


its under the tracking tab (far right) instead of stats tab on the players stats page. Its easy to overlook if you don't know where it is already.

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#46384 The state of the Houston Rockets as of January 9, 2015

Posted by Losthief on 09 January 2015 - 10:47 PM

here's ric buchars take on us chasing a pg: http://bleacherrepor...ame-point-guard(video after the link)


Why i would love a dragic trade, one for D. Will (his first mention) scares the crap out of me. He does bring a interesting point up about bev being the 3rd guard in a ideal 3 guard rotation, so we would want/need a bigger pg who could play some sg. Dragic fits, so does Bledsoe from the suns, who else would fit that idea out there that would be worth the pellies pick?


p.s. I like bev, but would take dragic as i'm a big proponent of letting harden spend a bit more time off the ball cause he could be a better version of kyle korver as someone who bends the defense so effectively. Also, from me watching games Harden as a set 3pt shooter is about twice as deadly as off the dribble, and the dude is awesome off the dribble. Also he never gets to shoot  corner 3s where he's currently shooting 57 percent from both corners (above the break he's only 34 percent).


He also shoots 37 percent on catch and shoot 3s which is the highest (but only gets them 12 percent of the time).


This is a good shot chart...a better one would include more corner 3s imho.


****this chart is older (so theres more red probably now beyond the arc, but it still shows he lack of corner 3 attempts, and i liked having both years back to back).


from the article (found here: by zach harper: http://www.cbssports...storic-numbers)


He'll (harden) never take a lot of corner 3's for this Rockets team because he's initiating so much of the offense from the top. But he's also responsible for making that initial pass that starts a chain reaction of ball movement that leads to these open 3's. He sucks the defense in perfectly with his dribble penetration and then the opponent's resistance begins to crumble.


I think a penetrating and good passing point guard could allow one of our best corner 3 shooters (harden at 57 percent) the opportunity to take and make them. I don't see this as a bad thing even though it does take the ball out of his hands occasionally.

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#46381 Josh Smith and the end of Moreyball?

Posted by Losthief on 09 January 2015 - 10:16 PM

See I see it differently as towards variance.


Variance is good on offense and bad on defense.


Josh Smith is high variance on offense and low-variance on defense.


Additionally the same can be said for Ariza (he's 3pt shooting percentage), Bev, Brewer, et al we have acquired and or kept since changing philosophy last year.


I would say Parsons, Daniels, and Lin (players we've let go/traded) represented the opposite, lower-variance on offense, higher-variance on defense. The obvious exception being Asik, a very dependable/consistent defender but he demanded out.


I think you always want low variance on defense for consistent production and having a high enough variance on offense will allow you to win enough games to compete for championship. Even Lebron can't win on his own (as we have seen borne out). I would argue that this is what you see on the Spurs, what we call their 'system' allowing for everyone to shine including the bench is really a collection of low variance dependable defenders who each offer a chance (high-variance) of offense explosion (a la Danny Green in the part of the finals, Kwahi in the last 4/5 games of the finals last year) that enables you to win games. 


Again the above must be built around consistent players like Harden and Howard (and perhaps Dmo) to provide some stability, but I believe role/bench players having a high-variance offense is fine.


Just a thought of mine.

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#46337 Josh Smith and the end of Moreyball?

Posted by Losthief on 07 January 2015 - 08:57 PM

Losthief, I don’t think plus/minus is a relevant statics.  It’s noisy.  And it’s certainly says nothing over a short period of time.  


Thank you for your responses.  


I wholeheartedly agree on +/- in most cases. And really this case is the only case I think it is useful at all. My point being comparing two players at the same position on the same team (dmo versus smith for this discussion). What the +/- showed me is that although they are net similar effects over the time period Dmo was the much more consistent producer with a lower variance, while Josh Smith was the way way more up and down. The only thing this tells me is a) Smith and the team are getting used to each other, b ) Smith is effective in certain matchups, and c) Dmo is more effective in certain matchups. Again nothing startlingly new as we all knew that I just pointed out the stats


I posted the other guys +/- soley for the reason that (outside of ariza/terry which are just small sample weirdness i agree) that Josh was not being bouyed by enormous production by dwight/harden having gigantic plus/minus dragging Smith's (or Dmo's) up. That's all, not saying Harden/Howard/Bev are not better than smith which I think we all agree that they are. I agree with Mario that I see him as somewhere between the 6th and 8th (in the rotation but not a focal point) player on the team.


if you want more detail on/off stats:

Query Results
Age is Years-Days

  Poss Net (Totals) Rk Player Age Date Tm   Opp   MP Tm Opp Pace FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% eFG% FT FTA FT% PTS 1 Josh Smith 29-029 2015-01-03 HOU   MIA W 28.0 54 53 91.7 +9 +6 +.132 +6 +5 +.290 +.189 +3 -3 +.317 +27 2 Josh Smith 29-026 2014-12-31 HOU   CHO W 27.5 55 55 96.0 +7 +9 +.070 +11 +18 +.423 +.176 -10 -11 -.157 +15 3 Josh Smith 29-021 2014-12-26 HOU @ MEM W 31.7 62 61 93.2 +7 +4 +.093 +1 +6 -.040 +.098 -2 -3 +.032 +13 4 Josh Smith 29-028 2015-01-02 HOU @ NOP L 17.6 34 32 90.0 -3 -5 -.029 0 +1 -.024 -0.025 -3 -3 -.214 -9 5 Josh Smith 29-023 2014-12-28 HOU @ SAS L 25.6 52 51 96.6 -2 -2 -.026 -2 +4 -.257 -0.048 -4 -2 -.217 -10 6 Josh Smith 29-031 2015-01-05 HOU @ CHI L 25.6 54 54 101.1 -3 +12 -.186 0 +7 -.165 -0.197 -15 -16 -.150 -21


(dang charts never stay formatted; here's the link: http://www.basketbal...er_by=diff_pts)


So when Josh plays well we shoot better (efg pecentage, 3s, 2s, et al) and when he playing bad we don't as a team. What this tells me in a small sample size is that hopefully....we just not hitting our threes right now with Josh on the court in his bad games. How much of that is him and how much of that is us missing open shots. Based on me watching outside the chicago game its mostly our 3pt shooters missing. chicago it was him...


Also a good sign that I hopes continues/strengthens is that he played more minutes in the games he did well and less in the games he did badly. Which seems obvious but is good to see Mchale doing.

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#46323 Josh Smith and the end of Moreyball?

Posted by Losthief on 07 January 2015 - 03:16 AM

Just for reference....


by +/- (thus impact on game)

Memphis-2nd best on team +15

Spurs-2nd worst on team -11

Wizards-4th best (and only non-bench player in a pos) +1 (for ref. terry, brewer and joey dorsey were plus 20s everyone else was negatives)

Hornets-4th best +15

Pellies-a -10 (higher(?)/better than harden, howard, d-mo, ariza, terry, bev and brewer) <---basically our normal rotation, the bench all did better with extended run

Heat-6th best (highest non-starter) +15

Bulls-worst at -19


So on just raw +/- since he's joined he is a net +6 while the rockets have gone 3-4. Coincidentally D-Mo (his comp.) is also a net +6, but a much less volatile one (usually single digits either way) other than Pellies game where everyone in red was really bad.


Harden is a net -6

Howard is a net 0

Ariza is a net +44*** (What!!! but yeah...i added it twice to make sure)

Bev is a net -11


***His subs (brewer and kostas) are each +3 and net 0 respectively showing me that Ariza is playing out of his mind somehow even though he can't shoot right now. Also we are losing out by cutting Ariza's minutes for brewer/kostas but that had to be done we were running him into the ground.


So really to me it comes down to harden, howard and bev are not performing to there usual levels right now. This could be due to Josh and integrating new pieces, or it could just be a lull in a long season, but yeah except for terry (+26 somehow at his age and min.) our guard rotation (harden, bev, brewer, terry) are bringing us a +12 with almost all of that being the ageless wonder that is Jason Terry.


Now, obviously watching the games chemistry is off, and his turnovers need to come down (which i hope is due to not knowing his teammates yet), but the guy is really good at defense and in transition. In the half court offense he is downright awful you are correct. Hopefully coaching/ H&H will weed him out of the half court offense as we progress this season. I think alot of this due to him being either really good for the team or really bad, and as we all know the bad really stays with you. My personal hope is McHale gets better at realizing when we have good versus bad josh and plays him heavy with one and sits him for D-Mo with the other, but we will see.


------+/- numbers from espn and only in the games since Josh joined the rockets------

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#45831 At what point can I feel safe trusting Donatas Motiejunas?

Posted by Losthief on 08 December 2014 - 05:15 AM

It kind of depends. If Howard is facing single coverage, he is probably still the better option I think. But if doubled, I'd rather go to Motiejunas facing single.


DMO High Post with Howard running/sealing baseline down in the low post. I don't really see why it has to be an exclusive option/choice, because dmo has shown interior passing ability and we know Howard can catch above the rim.


Put DMO at one elbow and Howard on the opposite block and good luck to guarding that w/o giving up either a alley-op/interior seal to Howard or a open 3 to the spacers. Granted this puts alot of emphasis on DMO's passing, but if Harden isn't getting it done i think its workable. If Howard gets within 3 feet of the bucket he shoots like 67%+, its outside this area that he's not so good, and he doesn't have the handles/ball control to operate from the elbows down to the low block on his own, so I personally think this setup would greatly improve his ability to get the ball in the proper spots...if he bought into it. 

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#45516 Blogtable: Harden for MVP

Posted by Losthief on 17 November 2014 - 05:42 AM

Davis is a PF, Howard is a C, plus you don't win MVP unless your team is a top 3 record in the nba (its something like 97 percent). That said, hard to argue about the split vote thing...maybe they'll split all the votes and they'll win co-mvps!

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#45345 A quick note on Kyrie Irving and selfishness

Posted by Losthief on 08 November 2014 - 05:20 PM

I agree with you that conley is the better player today, but he's 27 and Kyrie is 22, which the main difference between the two is defense and bit of passing ability. I think both of those things might improve for kyrie over the long haul. That said, I'd take conley for winning a championship this year, but probably irving if im rebuilding.

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#44699 Who should be the Rockets back-up point/combo guard?

Posted by Losthief on 22 October 2014 - 08:15 PM

Yay, it's RAPM and dRAPM time!  OK, let's begin.  First, here is the link to the page cited: LINK


Notice anything unique?  I notice that Ish, unlike the other people he is sharing that top 10 with, only played 14 minutes per game and almost entirely against back-ups and in garbage time.  In fact, according to basketball-reference.com, he only started 1 game and his Drtng jumped from 108 to 117 (neither of which are good).  Phoenix was an average, yet slightly under-rated, defensive team last season overall and played at a high pace.


Where I'd say Ish is most horrific defensively is having the ball on offense where he often is quite good at helping start fast breaks....going the other direction.


Ish puts in the effort and has the speed and athleticism (didn't he make a very good block in our first game?) to be a good defender; however, he gambles, gets lost, and lacks the fundamentals to warrant that bogus dRAPM score.  That is why NBA.com has filters--to weed out the scores that shouldn't be there.


It's all moot.  The moment he blew the in-bounds play against Miami late in the game I pretty much scratched him from the roster.  Coach gave him a chance to run the team and he ran it into the ground.  (For those watching, did you see the look on McHale's face after that play?)  Ish is a PG without a PG's mind.  Good luck Ish.  I wish you luck playing ball....anywhere but here.


yeah a big key with stats (even minutes adjusted stats) is you gotta group who your comparing together effectively.


Aka starters with starters at there positions


6 and 7 men off the bench (20-25 min a game)


8-10 off the bench (5-15 min a game)


garbage time players


If a guy excels in one group, then you can try him in the next group up, aka harden/omer. He exceled at the 6 and 7 man group (20-25 min a game) thus was worth the risk to try in the next group up (starters) where he panned out, some do some don't (case 1: ariza w/ rockets 1st time). But you can't take a garbage time player or a 8-10 bench rotation guy and plug him in directly as a starter and expect good/equal results. Because his numbers (especially for garbage time players) came against a different level of competition. Now that said....the guy I really would like to take from the 6/7 group if we get an all-star level pg and try as a starter is amir johnson.

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#44454 2014-15 Roster

Posted by Losthief on 12 October 2014 - 05:23 AM

I think Garcia makes the roster, minimum vet deals are a postive in moreyball. Terry not so much (not counting needing him for a trade).


As for the 18 players, no. You can have a max of 15 contracts (16 with a hardship injury-only approval from the league which is rare).


You can have only 13 active players on your roster (available for games).


You can have up to 3 inactive players (15-3=12 minimum you must have active) assigned and playing in the D-League (thus protected becasue they are part of your 15 man contracts), but must maintain at least 12 players on your active (nba) roster at all times (exception being having only 11 guys due to injury/trade for up to 2 weeks max).


The three inactive players can or can not be assigned to the D-League (rockets/teams choice) but you can have only 3 inactive total whether or not they are playing in the D-League or just practicing with the nba team but not game available.


So, max you can possibly ever have is 16 players, max most teams can have is 15 players, minimum you can have for any length of time is 12 guaranteed contracts. League average of guaranteed contracts must equal i think 14 players over all 30 teams.


This make more sense?


p.s. the cba faq page is something i try to read every offseason, but i still get confused, much less about the nuisances of the agreement that I have no idea about. Interesting stuff though. 

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