Terrence Jones can block shots. That point has been established. In his last two games, he’s blocked 11. On the year, Jones is averaging 1.1 blocks in 14.6 minutes per game. Per 36, that’s a rate of 2.6 blocks. Horrifically low sample size of 263 minutes but work with me here – I’m trying to bring you more excitement.
How does he compare to the league’s best at this stage? Right now, the 5 leading shot blockers in the league are Serge Ibaka, Larry Sanders, Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, and Dwight Howard.
Here are the rookie year blocked shot numbers for each of those respective players, per 36 minutes. For perspective, I have put the minutes played per game in parenthesis: Ibaka – 2.6 (18.1); Sanders – 3.0 (14.5); Duncan – 2.3 (39.1); Hibbert – 2.7 (14.4); Howard – 1.8 (32.6)
Interesting to note that Jones is blocking shots at a similar rate as Ibaka and Hibbert. While this data may have some predictive value for sustainability, a more probative measure would be a reverse analysis, through accumulating all historical rookie players with similar rates and determining year 3/year 4 false positive percentage. But I don’t have the tools for that at my disposal, so take from this what you will.
Given Jones’ recent emergence, and the team’s overall PPP since the Greg Smith lineup change, I don’t want to pursue Josh Smith. That was not the case some weeks ago.
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