55 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Food for thought: Terrence Jones can block shots
By: rahat huq

Terrence Jones can block shots.  That point has been established.  In his last two games, he's blocked 11.  On the year, Jones is averaging 1.1 blocks in 14.6 minutes per game.  Per 36, that's a rate of 2.6 blocks.  Horrifically low sample size of 263 minutes but work with me here - I'm trying to bring you more excitement.

How does he compare to the league's best at this stage?  Right now, the 5 leading shot blockers in the league are Serge Ibaka, Larry Sanders, Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, and Dwight Howard.

Here are the rookie year blocked shot numbers for each of those respective players, per 36 minutes.  For perspective, I have put the minutes played per game in parenthesis: Ibaka - 2.6 (18.1); Sanders - 3.0 (14.5); Duncan - 2.3 (39.1); Hibbert - 2.7 (14.4); Howard - 1.8 (32.6)

Interesting to note that is blocking shots at a similar rate as Ibaka and Hibbert.  While this data may have some predictive value for sustainability, a more probative measure would be a reverse analysis, through accumulating all historical rookie players with similar rates and determining year 3/year 4 false positive percentage.  But I don't have the tools for that at my disposal, so take from this what you will.

Given Jones' recent emergence, and the team's overall PPP since the Greg Smith lineup change, I don't want to pursue Josh Smith.  That was not the case some weeks ago.

[Jason]

I still want Josh Smith. Terrence Jones is essentially a poor man's Josh Smith, but I prefer the real deal.

[phaketrash]

I still want Josh Smith. Terrence Jones is essentially a poor man's Josh Smith, but I prefer the real deal.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but this point might be a bit flawed. If he's the poor man's Josh Smith, it means Josh Smith costs a lot more. 10x as much almost. I don't know if he'd bring 10x the value, even if we both prefer the "real deal."

[Steven]

I still want Josh Smith. Terrence Jones is essentially a poor man's Josh Smith, but I prefer the real deal.

Josh Smith is the old man's Terrence Jones.

[2016Champions]

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but this point might be a bit flawed. If he's the poor man's Josh Smith, it means Josh Smith costs a lot more. 10x as much almost. I don't know if he'd bring 10x the value, even if we both prefer the "real deal."

I think your logic is flawed. Following your thought process we should get rid off Lin because he costs 8x as much as Beverley. 

[Jason]

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but this point might be a bit flawed. If he's the poor man's Josh Smith, it means Josh Smith costs a lot more. 10x as much almost. I don't know if he'd bring 10x the value, even if we both prefer the "real deal."

Yeah, a lot will depend on his profession from year one to year two. The problem though is that we won't know about this before having to make a decision on J Smooth. I believe though that Morey has some advanced stats on Josh Smith to really like him. I mean, he's essentially wanted to attain him ever since becoming our GM so there must be a specific reason that maybe we can't see. I do know that J Smooth can hit the corner three (I believe at a 38% clip if I remember correctly) which is something Morey looks for. I don't see Terrence Jones having this ability nor do I see T Jones having the 4 assts per game ability, which is an underrated aspect of Josh Smith's game.

[phaketrash]

I think your logic is flawed. Following your thought process we should get rid off Lin because he costs 8x as much as Beverley. 

 

Is it? I don't think Beverley is the poor man's Lin though...lol. If we accept the hypothesis that TJones is somehow "the poor man's Josh Smith," it would make paying Josh Smith 10x as much not necessarily a smart move. Some multiple greater would still make sense, because on some level he is simply better (and there is a threshold question you could look at -- whether the difference at some points 'tips' us over a boundary), but I don't think the original line of thinking is necessarily flawed at all (if you assume the basic premise).

 

So yes, if we believe that Bev is "the poor man's Lin" (I don't think so), and if Lin is not the requisite multiples better in value, then it would be more prudent to move him. The difference in a trade, however, is the value you get back has to be compared to what you've giving out. With JSmith, it is whether we sign him or not, so it is a different thought experiment. Here, what we're weighing is what we could do with that amount instead and how much value that would create (in addition to whatever value having a poor man's JSmoove in TJones gives us). Whatever maximizes this figure = win.

[phaketrash]

Yeah, a lot will depend on his profession from year one to year two. The problem though is that we won't know about this before having to make a decision on J Smooth. I believe though that Morey has some advanced stats on Josh Smith to really like him. I mean, he's essentially wanted to attain him ever since becoming our GM so there must be a specific reason that maybe we can't see. I do know that J Smooth can hit the corner three (I believe at a 38% clip if I remember correctly) which is something Morey looks for. I don't see Terrence Jones having this ability nor do I see T Jones having the 4 assts per game ability, which is an underrated aspect of Josh Smith's game.

 

38% from the right wing actually, but yes, I agree that the assists are a big difference. Smith can drive and kick it out and even pass it out of the post. TJones has not shown any real passing abilities yet.

[2016Champions]

Regardless of who is and isn't the poor man's somebody, we're basically talking about player value vs contract. Obviously the good players on rookie contracts are going to be the cheaper alternative, but I don't see why we should use that premise to avoid signing a top 5 PF who can help us win a championship. If we were comparing between contracts where a resign has already happened that would make more sense. 

[Jason]

Regardless of who is and isn't the poor man's somebody, we're basically talking about player value vs contract. Obviously the good players on rookie contracts are going to be the cheaper alternative, but I don't see why we should use that premise to avoid signing a top 5 PF who can help us win a championship. If we were comparing between contracts where a resign has already happened that would make more sense.

Agreed

[phaketrash]

Regardless of who is and isn't the poor man's somebody, we're basically talking about player value vs contract. Obviously the good players on rookie contracts are going to be the cheaper alternative, but I don't see why we should use that premise to avoid signing a top 5 PF who can help us win a championship. Refusing to sign an experienced stud just because you have a player still on his rookie contract doesn't make sense to me. If we were comparing between contracts where a resign has already happened that would make more sense. 

 

I see your point, and in that case, it'd be true, but I don't know if it is entirely applicable here. It is because if we do believe that the rookie player can fulfill most of what the expensive player brings, we could spend that same pool of money on someone else, thus creating more value, right?

 

If a top 5 PF costs x dollars and brings y value, that y may be diminished by the rookie player's presence, and hence spending x dollars on another player that brings y + 10 value makes more sense (assuming this option is available). This is all rather moot in my opinion though because I don't think TJones is near JSmoove's level and I think JSmoove does bring 10x more value than TJones (by value, I don't mean being better), and even if he didn't, I don't know if there's another option out there that is this "y + 10" choice. But you're right on the general idea that comparing those on rookie contracts to another player who costs more due to seniority is probably more misleading than helpful at times lol.

[rockets best fan]

Regardless of who is and isn't the poor man's somebody, we're basically talking about player value vs contract. Obviously the good players on rookie contracts are going to be the cheaper alternative, but I don't see why we should use that premise to avoid signing a top 5 PF who can help us win a championship. If we were comparing between contracts where a resign has already happened that would make more sense. 

j-smith a top 5 PF? what about LMA, love, z-bo, garnet, Duncan, dirk, faried, blake,.......he wouldn't be in front of any of these players imo

[2016Champions]

I thought Josh Smith was a top 5 PF last season, but this season he hasn't been as good. I think he will be a top 5 PF again in the Rockets system. 

[rockets best fan]

imo j-smith has never been a top five PF and will never be a top 5 PF. his bball IQ won't let him

[thejohnnygold]

Getting back to this value concern...I think we can all agree that Dwight Howard + T-Jones on the roster is more valuable than Josh-Smith + T-Jones.  Now, is Josh Smith + T-Jones better than Cap space + t-Jones?  Yes.   Again, I just love the options we are sitting on....there just isn't a move that is "bad".  Even if Josh Smith is not a top 5 PF...who cares...I agree with 2016 that in our system he will be maximized as a player and his play will elevate the team as a whole.  <---That is my main concern.  I'd be happy to see Smith become a facilitator in the offense and average 10/10/10 for the season.  That would be sweet.   I'd love to run the offense through the high post the way sacramento did with Webber...They had a zillion different plays they ran from that set...a lot of them are on youtube.  I think we have the personnel to do a similar version--especially if D-Mo can get back on track as his passing skills would make it even better.

[Jason]

But I believe that a starting front court of Asik and Josh Smith is better than a starting front court of Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones. Howard may be the better player, but I actually believe that Josh Smith makes us the better team due to what we already have at C and PF. Not to mention that J Smooth fits into our system perfectly. Get it done Morey!

[2016Champions]

I wouldn't say "perfectly" unless he consistently knocks down those 3's, but he will definately help us enough on both ends (especially defense) to go from pretenders to contenders. To be honest, I'm learning towards the idea of Millsap rather than Josh Smith just because of the 3's (Millsap is makig 50% of his corner threes this season). As for Dwight, I don't want to get my hopes up so I won't bother talking about him.

[Jason]

I wouldn't say "perfectly" unless he consistently knocks down those 3's, but he will definately help us enough on both ends (especially defense) to go from pretenders to contenders. To be honest, I'm learning towards the idea of Millsap rather than Josh Smith just because of the 3's (Millsap is makig 50% of his corner threes this season).

Wow, I didn't realize Milsap could hit threes. I'll have to look at his stats.

[2016Champions]

My mistake, it's actually 60% on corner threes

http://stats.nba.com...PlayerID=200794

 

And I think he will get alot more wide open looks in Houston. Back in 2011 (when Deron Williams was still a Jazz) Millsap made 39% of his threes.

[Steven]

Here is a list of the top PFs in the game. This is in no particular order.

Kevin Love (Barkley's pick)
LaMarcus Aldridge
David Lee
Pau Gasol
David West
Carmelo Anthony
Serge Ibaka
Blake Griffen
Chris Bosh
Carlos Boozer
Greg Monroe
Tobias Harris
Kenneth Fariad
Dirk

And id take everyone over Smith or Millsap