One of the questions that pops up pretty frequently in NBA discussion these days is “Where have all the rivalries gone?” Maybe its the increased media attention, maybe it’s the fluidity of the NBA labour market, maybe it’s the league’s attempts to provide family-friendly entertainment, but the general consensus seems to be that there isn’t the same level of animosity between teams that there used to be. That’s a shame, because given the length of the regular season it’s important for players and fans alike to find reasons to sustain their focus. Last year, this match-up fit the bill perfectly and proved that it’s still possible to have a proper rivalry in today’s game. Hopefully it will continue into this season!
Form:
After the euphoria of the recent five game win-streak, the Rockets have dropped two winnable games in a row thanks to a combination of injuries and lackadaisical play. They’re going to be missing Lin, Asik and Smith tonight for sure, and may also be without the services of Parsons as he struggles to overcome back spasms.
The Warriors did their best Houdini act in their last game, coming back from 27 down to beat the Raptors by way of a 42(!) point fourth quarter. Moral of the story: a lead is never safe when Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are around. Injury-wise, Andre Iguodala is out with a hamstring injury. After being knocked out of his rhythm by a strong defensive performance on Wednesday, Harden must be breathing a sigh of relief that he doesn’t have to deal with Iguodala’s attentions this time around.
On Offence:
- With large chunks of offensive production missing from the Rockets’ lineup, the onus is on Harden to lead the team’s scoring. That’s not to say he should be playing the isolating ball-hog, but the team needs both his incisive driving game and outside shot to be running smoothly because there aren’t as many other options to provide a backup plan.
- The Harden-Howard pick-and-roll needs to get some more burn. Andrew Bogut will have the principle task of defending Howard tonight, and while he’s an excellent interior presence he does not have the foot-speed to keep up with Howard in full flight. This should be an easy source of points, and if it isn’t then the Warriors will be giving up open shots elsewhere on the court.
- Speaking of open shots, the Rockets’ stable of three point shooters need to start knocking a few down. There’s a reasonable correlation between three point shooting and wins for the Rockets so far this year – in wins they have shot 40.8% from behind the arc while in losses they have shot only 31.6%. It’s not quite “Live by the three, die by the three”, but it’s close.
On Defence:
- The Splash Brothers combination of Curry and Thompson is a nightmare for anyone to defend, but especially so for the Rockets since both have strengths that correspond to their defenders’ weaknesses. Curry loves to use any smidgeon of space he can extract from a screen when handling the ball to launch from distance, so Beverley is going to have to sort out his issues with getting stuck on picks when defending the pick-and-roll if he is to have any hope of keeping Curry quiet and preventing a three point barrage. Thompson, on the other hand, is adept at using screens off the ball. Coincidentally, this is Harden’s primary weakness as a defender. Not a recipe for success!
- Harden may fare better if the Rockets can cross-match him against Harrison Barnes. When he thinks they have a mismatch, Warriors coach Mark Jackson likes to isolate Barnes in the post. This happens to be something Harden can actually do a good job of defending, so if he can goad the Warriors into going to that it may take them out of their offence.
- On the glass, Terrence Jones will have an important job in putting a body on the dangerous David Lee. Jones has been racking up the rebounds recently, but he still has issues boxing out from time to time. This would be a good game to get back to the fundamentals in this area.
Rotation Spotlight:
Draymond Green (6’7″ SF, Michigan State)
Green was one of the main objects of the Rockets’ ire in last year’s feud – at one point he was quoted as saying “It is what it is now. They hate me, I dislike them.” (If you need reminding why, check out 1:37 of this video). He’s an interesting player because many people thought he would not be able to make the transition to NBA level. However, he has made a home for himself in Golden State by playing solid defence and knocking down the occasional three (he shoots 37.5% on the season). Don’t expect much offence, but he’ll be chasing around three point shooters all evening.
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