In today’s episode, Forrest Walker and I discuss the impact of the Patrick Beverley injury on the Rockets’ title chances.
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Total comments: 11@Sir Thursday
that is an interesting point of view. I hope you find the time to do a follow up on it..............PLEASE :)
My take on Beverley (and this is not something I've backed up with stats yet, might try to justify this if I have time) is that against certain PGs his brand of defence is very effective, but against others it isn't. Ironically, I don't think it works very well against Russell Westbrook. Westbrook has the speed and strength to shrug off the aggressive defence and use it against Bev. But I think it does work quite well against players like Curry and Lillard. These guys are great off the drive, but they make their money off their ability to shoot the ball. To my eye, Beverley's tight defensive style makes it difficult for them to generate the space they need to use that shooting ability properly.
ST
Interesting observation. Certainly deserves further attention...
My take on Beverley (and this is not something I've backed up with stats yet, might try to justify this if I have time) is that against certain PGs his brand of defence is very effective, but against others it isn't. Ironically, I don't think it works very well against Russell Westbrook. Westbrook has the speed and strength to shrug off the aggressive defence and use it against Bev. But I think it does work quite well against players like Curry and Lillard. These guys are great off the drive, but they make their money off their ability to shoot the ball. To my eye, Beverley's tight defensive style makes it difficult for them to generate the space they need to use that shooting ability properly.
ST
Good points jg, but on the other hand the other point guards are forced to be more active on the defense of side of the ball against Lin versus Beverly, which I'd agrue could be more important against the very elite point guards (both passing and scoring), like the Chris Paul, Tony Parker level. This is because even beverly can't really force them to turn it over or make big mistakes, but against the point guards that score more/attack more as there primary action like Lillard, Curry, Rose, etc etc it does hurt us. The question I have here, is Russell Westbrook in which group?
I would counter your assertion with some more numbers:
Here are some steal (aka turnovers) numbers for Beverley against top PG's (single game only) (this does not reflect any bad passes or other potential turnovers caused)
K. Irving - 5
C. Paul - 4
D. Lillard - 4
T. Parker - 3
D. Lillard - 3
R. Rubio - 3
G. Dragic - 3
G. Dragic - 2
S. Curry - 2 (twice)
T. Parker - 2
R. Westbrook - 2
I'd say Bev can disrupt elite PG's (despite Westbrook's display in the last OKC game, it must be noted that Bev got so far under his skin that he was pulled from the game for an extended period of time in the first half.)
While Lin will be more active on offense, I don't think he makes opposing guards work that much harder. The vast majority of the time, defenders force Lin to his left where the post defender blocks his path to the rim and.....(we all know what comes next)....he ends up picking up his dribble and getting trapped. Best case scenario is he gets the pass out to the perimeter for a reset and not picked off.
This is why I am a proponent of Lin shooting mid-range (as others have said). Those shots are going to be available and I'd rather he shot them over the alternative.
While I dislike Westbrook a great deal I do respect him as well. He is a bigger, stronger, faster version of Allen Iverson. He can score in bunches and when his shot is falling is one of the most unstoppable scorers in the league. All you can do is try to force him into jumpers and hope they miss the mark.
Good points jg, but on the other hand the other point guards are forced to be more active on the defense of side of the ball against Lin versus Beverly, which I'd agrue could be more important against the very elite point guards (both passing and scoring), like the Chris Paul, Tony Parker level. This is because even beverly can't really force them to turn it over or make big mistakes, but against the point guards that score more/attack more as there primary action like Lillard, Curry, Rose, etc etc it does hurt us. The question I have here, is Russell Westbrook in which group?
By defensive rating and almost every team or individual defensive PPP Synergy statistic Jeremy Lin is a better defensive player than Beverly. Again it's the biased EYE test that screws Jeremy over. Lin has SHUT down multiple elite guards this year while Beverly has been LIT UP all season long. Haters so wish Beverly is better on defense, just like they stupidly said Tony Douglas was better on defense than Lin last year to justify why Lin was benched in 4th quarters. Beverly is just another Felton or Shumpert, players totally overrated (in Felton's case) or given false defensive credit (Shumper's case) because people want to constantly discount Jeremy Lin.
I won't take the necessary time to fully go into this (I have plenty of older posts that do), but since you brought synergy into it I'd like to point out a couple of numbers from there.
Patrick Beverley ranks #24 in iso defense. Jeremy Lin is #123. Given that Beverley's role on the team is iso defense I'd say he is doing his job very well and much better than Jeremy. Bev also spends most of his time against the NBA elite--Lin less so.
I've repeatedly pointed out that Beverley has a "Dwight Effect" in that he eliminates shots entirely as opposing players can't get a shot off against him.
When they do get a shot off, it turns out that Beverley allows a 39.6% scoring percentage. Jeremy allows 39.1%. An advantage, but a marginal one and after factoring in the higher frequency in shots taken I would argue it falls in favor of Beverley.
What about the pick n roll? Looks like a wash as they each rank #130 in that category.
As these are probably the 2 most important categories I will leave it at that.
Bev forces turnovers 40% more than Lin. Bev also commits shooting fouls (emphasis on shooting) less frequently than Lin.
All of this from Synergy.
I have also gone over this "Lin shuts down elite guards and Bev only gets torched" myth. It's a myth. Believe what you like, but the only way to reach this determination is by cherry-picking games and ignoring the rest. We're not making a recruiting video here...
I'm no "hater". A cynic? At times. I want Jeremy to do well and I continue to believe he can and will, but that doesn't mean I will ignore reality in the process.
By defensive rating and almost every team or individual defensive PPP Synergy statistic Jeremy Lin is a better defensive player than Beverly. Again it's the biased EYE test that screws Jeremy over. Lin has SHUT down multiple elite guards this year while Beverly has been LIT UP all season long. Haters so wish Beverly is better on defense, just like they stupidly said Tony Douglas was better on defense than Lin last year to justify why Lin was benched in 4th quarters. Beverly is just another Felton or Shumpert, players totally overrated (in Felton's case) or given false defensive credit (Shumper's case) because people want to constantly discount Jeremy Lin.
Get over it! This is lame.
quality analysis right there...
as sad as it is I have to agree Rahat and Foerrest.........we are toast in the second round without Beverley. I do not have any confidence Lin will be able to fill the void left by Beverley. I also agree that while I would love to see Beverley come back quickly, I would much rather see him sit out and take the time to get his knee repaired right. he is to young to risk his career at this point. any way you size it up this is a disaster :(
I hope lin will embrace a larger role and step up but its going to be difficult for Mchale to balance lineups having to have too keep a reliable ball handler out there with canaan. The increased minutes for lin don't worry me as much as minutes for Canaan and probably Hamilton.
as sad as it is I have to agree Rahat and Foerrest.........we are toast in the second round without Beverley. I do not have any confidence Lin will be able to fill the void left by Beverley. I also agree that while I would love to see Beverley come back quickly, I would much rather see him sit out and take the time to get his knee repaired right. he is to young to risk his career at this point. any way you size it up this is a disaster :(
Get over it! This is lame.
