84 replies to this topic

[Willk]

Lol JG those #s I posted were just this year

Yo B - More numbers. Rockets are 7-2 with everybody except Lin or Lin plays 1q or less. The last time Lin shot the ball 11 or more times was against the Lakers. The Rockets would have won that game w/ or w/o Lin shooting 11 times. 

[miketheodio]

How did the Bulls win 6 championships with PGs that could only play one way? BJ Armstrong, John Paxson, Steve Kerr, Randy Brown were all either defensive or offensive players not both way players

exactly. you don't need a star PG to win a championship. just a solid role player if you have stars in other positions.

[Knickabokkaz]

Ah, yeah...I was thinking about the W/L numbers from when Lin starts w/o Harden not when he shoots 11+ shots.  My bad.  I agree with you that the Rockets are better when Lin is taking more shots.  I do think Lin should get 12+ shots a game.  I also think it should come as a 6th man with Beverley starting beside Harden.

 

I think Parsons was 8-24 (3-10 from 3 if memory serves) in the GS game.  Lin was 3-8.  I don't know why there was such a disparity, but Lin could definitely have taken more shots...not sure it would have changed anything though.

I think he's just not the type to step on someone's toes. He's not the type to say, hey your shooting like crap, stop shooting, he's going to play his role. be passive and just live with the results. He has to play the role of scorer first when Harden isn't on the court, then make sure others are getting good shots and be an extension of the coach. 

 

check out this chart. look at all the "scoring" pg's and match it up with Lin's stats. Like I said before and its the weirdest thing with Lin, the MORE shots he takes and is involved in the game, the most EFFICIENT he is. 

 

 

notice there are only 4 other players with a higher FG% then Lin but he only averages 9.5 FG attempts per games.

 

11+ shots per game chart W-L 16-1

[Cooper]

All but 4 of those teams are well under .500 making the 16-1 record in against them mostly irrelevant. Lin should generally shoot more than Bev and a little less than parsons harden and Howard which is usually what happens there's just a few times he shines and a few times he disappears in between that it seems are focused on too much from either perspective.

[miketheodio]

yes, he's talented. the problem has to do with how his skill set fits the team. it happens to be as the 6th man role. if it was the MDA lakers, it would be a starting role and he'd do well with that sort of system. i still think he is weaker when defenses are set in the half court. is bev better or equal? no. that isn't the point. the point is other positions are responsible for creating offense in half court situations.

 

 

it's not like people argue the ball should be in george hill's hands over paul george.

Edited by miketheodio, 23 February 2014 - 08:42 PM.

[Willk]

I think he's just not the type to step on someone's toes. He's not the type to say, hey your shooting like crap, stop shooting, he's going to play his role. be passive and just live with the results. He has to play the role of scorer first when Harden isn't on the court, then make sure others are getting good shots and be an extension of the coach. 

 

check out this chart. look at all the "scoring" pg's and match it up with Lin's stats. Like I said before and its the weirdest thing with Lin, the MORE shots he takes and is involved in the game, the most EFFICIENT he is. 

 

 

notice there are only 4 other players with a higher FG% then Lin but he only averages 9.5 FG attempts per games.

 

11+ shots per game chart W-L 16-1

Yo B - Interesting that you cut the list off at number 24. Let's look at rest of the list:

 

24 Jeremy Lin, PG HOU 45 30.9 13.1 4.4-9.5 .459 1.1-3.3 .345 3.2-4.0 .802 25 Trey Burke, PG UTAH 43 31.0 12.8 4.9-13.0 .375 1.7-4.9 .336 1.4-1.6 .910 26 Jameer Nelson, PG ORL 52 32.7 12.5 4.4-11.2 .395 2.2-6.0 .367 1.5-1.7 .876 27 Jose Calderon, PG DAL 56 31.2 11.6 4.2-9.4 .449 2.4-5.4 .444 0.7-0.8 .809 28 D.J. Augustin, PG CHI/TOR 44 25.6 11.3 3.7-9.0 .411 1.8-4.2 .424 2.2-2.5 .898 29 George Hill, PG IND 52 31.1 10.9 3.8-8.3 .454 1.4-3.6 .378 2.0-2.4 .831 30 Raymond Felton, PG NY 40 32.8 10.5 4.2-10.4 .400 1.0-3.3 .288 1.2-1.7 .706 RK PLAYER TEAM GP MPG PTS FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% 31 Ramon Sessions, PG MIL/CHA 56 23.7 10.4 3.4-8.4 .406 0.3-1.2 .221 3.4-4.3 .783   Kendall Marshall, PG LAL 27 32.6 10.4 4.1-9.0 .453 1.9-4.0 .477 0.4-0.7 .611   Nate Robinson, PG DEN 44 19.7 10.4 3.7-8.7 .428 1.3-3.5 .377 1.6-1.9 .835 34 Rajon Rondo, PG BOS 12 28.5 10.2 4.3-11.1 .383 1.0-2.8 .353 0.7-1.1 .615 35 Darren Collison, PG LAC 57 23.2 10.0 3.5-7.5 .460 0.7-1.9 .369 2.3-2.7 .864 36 Patty Mills, PG SA 56 18.2 9.9 3.7-7.9 .468 1.6-3.8 .410 1.0-1.1 .875 37 Mario Chalmers, PG MIA 47 29.1 9.7 3.4-7.2 .466 1.2-3.1 .390 1.8-2.4 .757 38 Patrick Beverley, PG HOU 37 31.9 9.4 3.4-8.5 .394 1.6-4.5 .345 1.1-1.4 .804 39 Mo Williams, PG POR 51 24.4 9.3 3.6-9.0 .399 1.1-3.0 .375 1.0-1.1 .875 40 Jordan Farmar, PG LAL 25 21.4 9.2 3.5-8.4 .414 1.4-3.3 .410 0.9-1.2 .733

Notice Collison, Mills, Chalmers. All are more efficient than Lin and ONLY shoot 7 times a game. So should they be shooting more?

[Mario Peña]

Not sure why forum members continue with the Lin stuff, we all know each other well enough to know where we stand. I like Lin as the 6th man and Beverly starting, it seems obvious.

 

Going back to the original problems of the Golden State game the Rockets cannot win in any scenario where the Jones/Motiejunas tandem gives McHale nothing and Parsons shoots thinking he is as great as Harden while Howard gets neutralized offensively.

 

I watched the game again and Parsons' decision making seems to get worse as the game goes on, probably more poor choices by him at both ends that really cost the Rockets the game which I think is still a good loss.

[miketheodio]

Not sure why forum members continue with the Lin stuff, we all know each other well enough to know where we stand. I like Lin as the 6th man and Beverly starting, it seems obvious.

 

Going back to the original problems of the Golden State game the Rockets cannot win in any scenario where the Jones/Motiejunas tandem gives McHale nothing and Parsons shoots thinking he is as great as Harden while Howard gets neutralized offensively.

 

I watched the game again and Parsons' decision making seems to get worse as the game goes on, probably more poor choices by him at both ends that really cost the Rockets the game which I think is still a good loss.

it is pretty nuts the rockets almost pulled it out without the front court doing as well as they normally do.

 

I didn't mind parsons. ill have to rewatch the game, but he was the only one, other than harden, who seemed to create more opportunities. everyone else was getting shut down.

[thejohnnygold]

Sorry for continuing, but I'm interested now....Volume shooting is an interesting thing.  There are only 13 players in the NBA sporting a fg% at or above Lin's 45.9% that shoot 11+ times per game who are not interior/post players (there are 34 total in the league counting the post guys).  Here is that list:

 

Lebron James

Dwyane Wade

Kevin Durant

Goran Dragic

Tony Parker

Lance Stephenson

Chandler Parsons

Dirk Nowitzki

Eric Bledsoe

Aaron Afflalo

Steph Curry

Chris Paul

JJ Redick

 

(Only 9 of these guys are guards)

 

That is some elite company there.  Typically, the more shots you take the more likely your fg% takes a dip.  The fact that these guys are taking 11+ shots per game and shooting a fairly good % speaks volumes about them.  Until a player proves they can sustain such efficiency across a season shooting that many shots I am skeptical of their high fg%.  For the record, Lin's fg% in those 17 games with 11+ shots barely makes the cut at 46.1%.

 

Some interesting notes (based on guys who shoot 11+ shots per game and avg. more than 45.9%):

 

LeBron James and Dwight Howard are tied for 1st in the league at 57.7%fg

 

Durant is averaging 50.9% taking 20.5 shots per game

 

Aldridge (21 fga at 46.6%) and Carmelo (21.8 fga at 45.3%) take the most shots of this group

 

Miami's Big 3 all made the list

 

Other teams with 3 players on this list: Clippers (Griffin, Paul, Redick) (The Rockets were close but Harden comes in at 45.1%, and the Pacers just missed with Paul George at 44.2%)

 

When you raise the bar to 16+ shots/game the list dwindles to 8 players: LeBron James, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Al Jefferson, DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Steph Curry, Kevin Love.

 

All stats from NBA.com & basketball-reference.com

[Knickabokkaz]

Sorry for continuing, but I'm interested now....Volume shooting is an interesting thing. There are only 13 players in the NBA sporting a fg% at or above Lin's 45.9% that shoot 11+ times per game who are not interior/post players (there are 34 total in the league counting the post guys). Here is that list:

Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
Kevin Durant
Goran Dragic
Tony Parker
Lance Stephenson
Chandler Parsons
Dirk Nowitzki
Eric Bledsoe
Aaron Afflalo
Steph Curry
Chris Paul
JJ Redick

(Only 9 of these guys are guards)

That is some elite company there. Typically, the more shots you take the more likely your fg% takes a dip. The fact that these guys are taking 11+ shots per game and shooting a fairly good % speaks volumes about them. Until a player proves they can sustain such efficiency across a season shooting that many shots I am skeptical of their high fg%. For the record, Lin's fg% in those 17 games with 11+ shots barely makes the cut at 46.1%.

Some interesting notes (based on guys who shoot 11+ shots per game and avg. more than 45.9%):

LeBron James and Dwight Howard are tied for 1st in the league at 57.7%fg

Durant is averaging 50.9% taking 20.5 shots per game

Aldridge (21 fga at 46.6%) and Carmelo (21.8 fga at 45.3%) take the most shots of this group

Miami's Big 3 all made the list

Other teams with 3 players on this list: Clippers (Griffin, Paul, Redick) (The Rockets were close but Harden comes in at 45.1%, and the Pacers just missed with Paul George at 44.2%)

When you raise the bar to 16+ shots/game the list dwindles to 8 players: LeBron James, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Al Jefferson, DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Steph Curry, Kevin Love.

All stats from NBA.com & basketball-reference.com

Be careful JG, you might called a Lin fan after this post.

[lawprofsr]

Sorry for continuing, but I'm interested now....Volume shooting is an interesting thing.  There are only 13 players in the NBA sporting a fg% at or above Lin's 45.9% that shoot 11+ times per game who are not interior/post players (there are 34 total in the league counting the post guys).  Here is that list:

 

Lebron James

Dwyane Wade

Kevin Durant

Goran Dragic

Tony Parker

Lance Stephenson

Chandler Parsons

Dirk Nowitzki

Eric Bledsoe

Aaron Afflalo

Steph Curry

Chris Paul

JJ Redick

 

 This post, like many in these Lin-related sub-threads, is a Rohrschack test. Either this clearly shows that Lin would be considered an All-star level player if he were a bigger focus of the offense, or it clearly shows that the number we are using is not a useful number, because Lin is clearly not in the same league as these players. I'm with feelingsupersonic--these chats aren't moving the needle. 

[Knickabokkaz]

This post, like many in these Lin-related sub-threads, is a Rohrschack test. Either this clearly shows that Lin would be considered an All-star level player if he were a bigger focus of the offense, or it clearly shows that the number we are using is not a useful number, because Lin is clearly not in the same league as these players. I'm with feelingsupersonic--these chats aren't moving the needle.

It's like saying, my eyes say "damn Joakim Noah has an ugly free throw shot, Dwight's free throw shot LOOKS better so he must shoot better then Noah" but in reality, #s wise Noah shoots a much better % but you just don't want to believe it from your own perception.

Edited by Knickabokkaz, 24 February 2014 - 12:39 AM.

[dbd]

How did the Bulls win 6 championships with PGs that could only play one way? BJ Armstrong, John Paxson, Steve Kerr, Randy Brown were all either defensive or offensive players not both way players

Please don't live in the past. In today, every players, including PG, must play both ways. Period. One trick pony ain't enough anymore.

[linonlyfan]

Outside the numbers, Patrick Beverley simply gives off a aura of competition. Sometimes this team can get a little too laid back on defence. While 5 rebounds is not that cool, some of the rebounds are on the offensive end saving posessions and I think thats just a massive boost to team morale. Also because he is literally the first line of defense, picking up opposing point guards from midcourt or earlier, he sends a huge message to the team saying lets play defense.

 

Lin is fairly easy to understand. He is a confidence guy, gets in a rhythm and gets going. So yeah he gets more efficient the more involved he is. But sometimes, its not about lack of the team making room for him, sometimes he just doesn't have it somehow (can't cleanly beat his man, shot not falling) and he tends to shrink from being involved (managing his overall FG%???). In NY, D'Antoni just rode him to wins or losses. We can do better as the Houston Rockets. I feel like Harden, Parsons and Beverley get going when they face adversity, while Jones, Lin and Howard have a bit less of that ability. 

 

Anyway, I think my point is, be careful of using statistics blindly. Its also important to understand causality. Maybe its not Lin shoots more = Houston wins, maybe its more when Lin is hot, he shoots more and Houston has a hugely increased chance to win. Either way, he clearly needs to understand his role as 6th man better and learn to stay aggressive when things are not going well.

 

The same with Iso ball, maybe its not Harden clears out therefore team offense struggles, maybe its team offense struggles therefore Harden goes to a clearout. Team offense especially against a disruptive defence is much harder to teach than just telling Harden not to go 1-4 flat. You need at a minimum 3-4 players moving in sync and reading the defence in sync. There is a reason Gregg Popovich runs his sets in practice endlessly.

[Willk]

Please don't live in the past. In today, every players, including PG, must play both ways. Period. One trick pony ain't enough anymore.

Don't Live in the past? Ok, who has won the last two championships? Miami. Who is their starting PG? Mario Chalmers. Are you saying he is an offensively gifted player? He is averaging 9.7 PPG and Beverley is averaging 9.4. They are the same player. The Pacers have George Hill. He is averaging 10.9. What a great two way player. Guess One trick Ponies can win.

[Buckko]

I refuse to post on Lin related discussions now because they are completly unproductive and I wish that more members will refuse as well. They completly take away what this site is about, the Houston Rockets.

[Sir Thursday]

There does seem to be an interesting correlation here, but as everyone should know "correlation does not imply causation". Lin takes the shots the defence gives him - when he penetrates, he will look to score if he can but otherwise will dump off or kick out. I suspect that against bad teams the help defence is not there to stop him from scoring, whereas better defensive teams provide enough rim protection to force the pass. In addition, some teams will have good defence at the point of attack and so will prevent those driving opportunities altogether. Since Lin avoids mid-range shots, this manifests itself in taking fewer shots overall.

 

So it may well be that the number of Lin's shot attempts is strongly correlated with poor point-guard and interior defence, which probably correlates with bad teams. And the Rockets should be able to beat bad teams! I don't think it's clear that it is Lin's shot-taking or lack thereof that's making a difference in and of itself, but it may well be a useful indicator to show when the opposition's defence is weak/poorly thought out.

 

ST

[thejohnnygold]

 This post, like many in these Lin-related sub-threads, is a Rohrschack test. Either this clearly shows that Lin would be considered an All-star level player if he were a bigger focus of the offense, or it clearly shows that the number we are using is not a useful number, because Lin is clearly not in the same league as these players. I'm with feelingsupersonic--these chats aren't moving the needle. 

 

Ha, good call on the Rohrshack test.  It wasn't intentional.  For the record, I am not implying Lin belongs in that group.  I do think that over the course of a season his numbers would dip and then people would be saying he shoots too much.

 

I agree with the idea that Lin excels against weaker teams.  Sorry, for those who are upset by the Lin talk.  He is still a Rocket and I don't see a problem discussing his play when it revolves around facts (instead of the yellow journalism we were getting).  Feel free to not read any further as I am most definitely discussing Lin--here is some evidence on his offensive outputs:

 

 

I couldn't screen cap the whole thing, but the point is pretty clear here.  Here is a link to the rest: LINK

 

That is a who's who of bad defenses.  The Memphis games were when their bigs were injured.  Also, the San Antonio game highlighted was when they were all hurt.  Probably the best defense in that list is the Clips...and they are probably around 10th best or so in the league--maybe Washington when they are healthy, but they are inconsistent and I am not sure why Gortat only played 20 minutes that game.

 

Meanwhile, the bottom half of that chart is filled with the likes of OKC, Portland, GS, healthy Memphis, and the Clips.  He also struggled against teams like Milwaukee and New Orleans--both have good shot blockers.

 

For me, the evidence is compelling enough to say Lin does not belong on that list of efficient volume shooters.

[YaoMan]

I'm not sure it's about moving the needle or if they are taking away from the Rockets.  As JG stated, Lin is a Rocket and until otherwise, his contributions or negligence will great affect the team. 

I think both Lin and Bev are equally important to the team and may not always show up on the box score or PER.  Last night (vs the Suns) was one of the first times I can remember Bev having such an impact on the box score.  His value has always been the intangibles and getting under the skin of the the player he defends. 

Lin can equally be effective without showing up on the box score as well. Against the Timberwolves on 2/10 when Harden didn't have his best game, I thought Lin settled the offense and got the ball moving.  While he only had 2 points, he had 7 dimes, 3 boards, a steal and only 1 turnover.  But the main thing was the team didn't miss a beat during the stretch he was playing.

The same for Bev. He was clearly valuable in guarding perhaps the best dribble shooter in the NBA vs the Warriors. His 2 points, 5 boards, 3 dimes doesn't even come close to showing up his value.  I think we need both Bev and Lin in key stretches as the both provide great value on and off the score board.

The game against the Warriors taught the Rockets, even when they play that poorly all around (with the exception of Harden) that they could win a game. (I keep thinking to that last play in regulation where they could have fouled or double Steph immediately or even have a quicker rotation in protecting the basket.) Tough loss but they just need to continue to grow.  And I liked what I saw from Asik too.

[Mario Peña]

McHale told the players on the court to foul Steph as long as he wasn't in a shooting motion but Parsons couldn't get it done. That was a failure on Parsons part but he will learn and well some players you just can't stop and Curry is one of those.