July 4, 2013 1:04 pm
Sources close to Howard tell me Kobe's reported pitch in Tuesday's meeting about teaching D12 how to win will be a "complete turnoff" to D12
— Chris Broussard (@Chris_Broussard) July 4, 2013
What a shocker. Only in Kobe’s mind could that possibly have been a good idea…
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As most forum members know I am a huge Kevin McHale fan and I believe he has been pivotal in convincing Dwight Howard to come to Houston. When I think about this Rockets team I see a lot of young guys with the potential to be great and that includes leadership, it's clear McHale is the leader of the Rockets right now.
I am extremely excited the Rockets have acquired Howard and I expect to see him settle into being a great teammate once again especially when considering how the Rockets fit him strategically and emotionally, this is his second act.
What we have the potential to see is that the Rockets may have 2 NBA First Teamers, the Rockets have immediately been catapulted into the NBA elite. Howard and Harden should single handedly get entire front lines into foul trouble. These two players make everyone on the floor better and the season might be easy once they gel but the post season will be the true test.
Another thing, Houston is now a destination.
Granger for 3...
McHale goes small Parsons/Granger at the 4, backup Parsons/Harden on the wing each can play 35 minutes and save themselves for the playoffs.
why would we want granger? we have parsons?
why would we want granger? we have parsons?
Well we got Dwight... Don't ask me why I'm not as jazzed about the Rockets as much as I am about the Phoenix Coyotes..........
I was never a Dwight fan.... I'm not a McHale fan..... (I AM an Asik fan, and rumors say he wants out..... Depressing.) The Rockets run an ad-hoc half-court offense under McHale. Harden penetrates, dishes to three shooter of big under the basket. If Harden can relinquish scoring for dimes to Dwight off penetration or transition, this team will be fine..... But a constant running game is not Dwight's cup of tea.... Dwight likes scoring off the post, and overpowering the defense. If he can learn to dish off to cutters or three-point shooters, he'll be fine as well. But this will be new tricks for him.
Dwight is at his best with an early-set half-court offense, where he gets into position before the defenders can, to get the post-up advantage. And Dwight (in McHale's words about Lin) is a "home run" type of player. The first item the Rockets were not good at last season, the second issue might short-circuit the Honeymoon if there is lack of communication between guards and Howard. This was an issue with Steve Nash last season. (Mike Brown was fired because the Lakers were unable to get their half-court offense set quickly enough. D'Antoni worked better here, but Howard didn't like it.)
Because Asik was already a top 10 center, if not top 5, I don't see Howard as a monumental improvement (aside from handling passes in traffic, Howard is miles ahead of Asik), and because McHale is not a good with devising effective plays in the half-court offense, Howard's role will likely be relegated to setting himself up for offensive rebounds, because only Harden is effective creating on his own in the Rockets half-court system. If Dwight can consistently clean the glass after missed layups, he'll be worth the hype.
And finally, the FT shooting....... I think McHale will handle this differently...... I think he'll bench Howard in the 4th quarter to avoid "Hack-a-Dwight"...... Mind you, we used this very strategy to perfection against the Lakers last season. (I can picture a major rift if McHale were to do that. Howard has a big and fragile ego.) And because we don't finish close games well, "Hack-a-Dwight" could become a major problem, worse than with his past teams.
I just fear a repeat of the Lakers' train wreck last season. Or more injuries. (Dwight is not exactly durable.) I hope I'm very wrong. GO ROCKETS!!
Bed, WTF? It's Friday night, our Christmas morning, and your going to bed. What's next you're going to be drinking warm Milk to help you sleep? It's SuperBeardSanity!!!!!New post: Dwight Howard Free Agency Watch: Final Decision
By: rahat huq
I am literally exhausted. About an hour or so ago, after the celebrations had begun, news broke that apparently Howard had actually not decided and was still 50/50 on his decision. After some panic, just a few minutes ago, it was reported that Howard has officially committed to Houston. I'm going to bed.
https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/353345576626167808
https://twitter.com/AP_Sports/status/353340817450074113
I am literally exhausted. About an hour or so ago, after the celebrations had begun, news broke that apparently Howard had actually not decided and was still 50/50 on his decision. After some panic, just a few minutes ago, it was reported that Howard has officially committed to Houston. I'm going to bed.
https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/353345576626167808
https://twitter.com/AP_Sports/status/353340817450074113
First, I want to apologize. As has been the case during the most critical of moments, Red94 has been down throughout the day.
Secondly, if you're reading this, and just heard of the news on your own, without actually following it live on Twitter....well then, I envy you. I cannot even begin to articulate how bizarre and draining the past few hours have been.
If you're just now dropping in, first read my previous installment on the earlier part of this afternoon when things first hit the fan after the Warriors managed to sign Andre Iguodala.
Look at what then transpired, with my corresponding thoughts:
http://storify.com/RedNinetyFour/the-afternoon-of-july-15-2013.html
At one point in there, Wojnarowski, indisputably the most credible reporter right now in the business, had tweeted that the Iguodala signing had taken the Warriors out of the running, leaving only the Rockets in the Howard sweepstakes. He shortly recanted, leaving my blood pressure at untenable levels.
Just an absolute rollercoaster from Sam Amick first breaking the news, to others confirming, to Wojnarowski then disputing the prior reports, to then even Daryl Morey himself tweeting that he had not been given a final indication. Finally, ESPN reported, via Chris Broussard, that the Lakers had been notified that Howard would not return. Absolutely exhausting to experience, live.
As I type, the Rockets have now just traded Royce White to Philadelphia and are currently exploring deals for center Omer Asik as they construct their new team. I'll have more thoughts on the significance of the Howard acquisition in the coming hours.
@SirThursday I agree wholeheartedly regarding the social media aspect of how this played out. Twitter has turned journalism (sports or otherwise) into shit imo.
I watched this news break on Twitter and it struck me just how profoundly unhealthy a medium that is for breaking news. There is no possible way for anyone to tell the whole story on there - it is a feature of the medium that everything comes out in confused dribs and drabs. It makes everyone involved look bad:
ST
HOW SWEET IT IS.....................I never doubted. I been saying it for months. I guess the old man does really know something about basketball. tonite we celebrate!!! just put my call in for a box of those sweet Cuban victory cigars :rolleyes:
Is that financially possible?
I love Omer but I think both LA or ATL would be a great fit for him. Let Pau have the ball again and let the big defend and rebound. Move Horford back to the 4 spot and give us Josh...
Does this mean we keep Lin?
You have to just follow me on Twitter at this point because things are moving too fast for static pages such as these to serve any utility.
To recap, basically the s*** hit the fan in the last hour with first, a tweet from a reporter from the OC register alleging that Howard would announce his decision via Twitter later in the day. She then retracted that report a few minutes later, after half of the Internet had cited it.
Then Marc Stein said Houston was the frontrunner.
Then the Utah Jazz, inexplicably agreed to take back the contracts of Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins, apparently getting nothing of any value in return, leaving me to wonder if compromising photos were involved. The Warriors then followed up that move by agreeing to terms with Andre Iguodala. Shortly thereafter, Adrian Wojnarowski, widely regarded as the most reliable source in the business, tweeted that the signing put Denver out of the Howard race. Rocket fan rejoiced while I warned that a S&T could still be possible. Wojnarowski then, shortly after, recanted his statement, saying the Warriors "had tentacles everywhere."
And that's where we stand, unless something has changed while I've been typing this. Howard's camp has yet to say anything. The Rockets sit, with their team in tow, and the ability to offer a better financial situation than Golden State (due to the lack of state income tax in Texas.) The Warriors, on the other hand, can now offer Andrew Bogut and either of (or both of) Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson in a S&T to the Lakers for Howard.
For Howard now, it may just come down to a choice between a team featuring himself, Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, and David Lee vs. himself, Lin, Harden, Parsons, and childhood friend Josh Smith. I don't know about you, but the former option seems better. The one thing Houston can really tip its hat upon is that Golden State is the worst financial option for Howard.
What I personally am wondering right now is why Golden State would move to sign Iguodala so quickly, taking themselves out of the chance to sign Howard outright. That makes me think they've heard nothing. On the other hand, it could just mean that they have a sense that Howard signing could be contingent upon an Iguodala acquisition.
In the end, it comes down to a) what Howard wants and b) whether the Lakers will be willing to cooperate (with the Warriors.)
Again, if you're not following me on Twitter, just do that, because this thing is simply moving too fast for a blog. I envy those of you who haven't been trying to follow this thing today.
Good for them--they will definitely be a force this season in the Western conference.
Ha--both Johnny-on-the-spots....better hope Iggy isn't trade bait for LA...
They couldn't trade Iggy to LA for quite some time after signing the contract. It is atleast a month and I'm thinking three months.
Edit:
Yep it is three months in Iggy's case. Denver could sign and trade him but the team receiving the signed player has to keep him a minimum of three months before being able to trade him.
Ha--both Johnny-on-the-spots....better hope Iggy isn't trade bait for LA...
Also seeing rumor about a possible Iguodala sign + trade for Golden State regardless of Dwight....who are these GM's that are willing to take the Warriors junk??? Confirmation of Iguodala trade.
Dang Golden State has apparently shed the salaries of Biedrins and Jefferson by sending them to Utah according to Amick and Wojnarowski. And then Golden State has signed Iguadala to four year $48 Million deal.
Wojnarowski also says Golden State has bowed out of the Howard sweepstakes but I don't quite believe that.
Edit:
Wojnarowski now even says he is a bit premature to think Golden State is out of the Howard sweepstakes.
Apparently this guy has flagged a private jet from aspen to houston that can be tracked here. we live in a strange, fast world...
Amen, if anything this whole circus show has taught me is that I am more emotionally vested in this organization than is healthy for a sane individual.
^^^^
Amen, if anything this whole circus show has taught me is that I am more emotionally vested in this organization than is healthy for a sane individual.
correct :lol:I may have to take a deeper look at that :lol:
My stomach is in knots. I haven't frantically checked ESPN and twitter in my life. I sure hope Howard decides and announces today, because if not, my weekend and my nerves will be shot...
Amen, if anything this whole circus show has taught me is that I am more emotionally vested in this organization than is healthy for a sane individual.
My stomach is in knots. I haven't frantically checked ESPN and twitter in my life. I sure hope Howard decides and announces today, because if not, my weekend and my nerves will be shot...
Perhaps the GS buzz is legit,but the cynic in me sees it differently.
GS has two dreadful contracts in Jefferson and Biedrins they could never unload,costing them Landry and Jack because ownership doesn't want to go into Lux Tax.
All of a sudden they create a buzz that they can move the players because they're chasing Dwight. Teams that in a bazillion yrs would never take on these players,now just might go hmmm,won't hurt to call and see what I might get.
agree. I think it's proper to give Morey a mention here..........I was looking at golden states salary structure and by next year they will be a real threat to sign a max player.........however thanks to Morey our rebuild plan is a year ahead of theirs. Morey continues to show why he is one of the best GM's in the league.
https://twitter.com/janiscarr/status/353209695307182081
https://twitter.com/janiscarr/status/353217156453908480
This whole debacle has caused a greater loss of economic production than the Lost Decade.
I'm not even going to bother typing anything else out for this segment...
Howard will remain a Laker, he will fall for the kobe pressure. Even though I think what Kobe said was a "penis" move.
Perhaps the GS buzz is legit,but the cynic in me sees it differently.
GS has two dreadful contracts in Jefferson and Biedrins they could never unload,costing them Landry and Jack because ownership doesn't want to go into Lux Tax.
All of a sudden they create a buzz that they can move the players because they're chasing Dwight. Teams that in a bazillion yrs would never take on these players,now just might go hmmm,won't hurt to call and see what I might get.
good article Rahut. I agree there is a lot of talk going on, but none of it coming from Howard and right now his view is all that matters in this situation
Your Tracy McGrady anecdote is poignant. It's almost unbelievable...which is disconcerting. We cannot presume Dwight is thinking for himself nor can we presume that is a good idea to begin with. That's an awful thing to say about a person; yet, it seems to be the truth.
I can see the appeal of playing under Mark Jackson and alongside Steph Curry....maybe he's a Raiders fan too...
I will be shocked if the Warriors can pull off a trade that gives them cap space while retaining Curry, Barnes, and Thompson.
I hope that Morey calls this bluff and doesn't let the Lakers leverage this scenario into nabbing Lin + Asik from us in a sign & trade when we could have gotten Dwight for free. I know that if I were Jim Buss that is exactly what I would try...tell Morey that he is going to take the Warriors offer unless he gives up Lin + Asik. I think we're safe--Morey seems like a good poker player.
If Dwight chooses GS then so be it. I think they will come out weaker for it--I view them (meaning their current roster) as the Rockets' main competition for the next 4-5 years...moreso than Oklahoma City.
https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/353020723368955905
Follow me on Twitter where I'm able to provide much more frequent commentary on these developments.
I thought we'd hear something final by last night, but I was wrong. The big story from yesterday pertained to ongoing reports of a Warriors late push to shed the money necessary to sign Howard outright so that they wouldn't need the Lakers to participate in a sign&trade. This led many to speculate that perhaps the Warriors had received word of Howard's preference. Pretty late in the night, Marc Stein reported that a) some rival executives believe that the Warriors will be capable of clearing the necessary cap space and b) the Lakers have become open to S&T possibilities.
First, there's no need to panic. None of the reports indicate that Howard yet has shown any preference. This most likely is just a push by the Warriors to even give themselves a shot at this thing. Secondly, to sign Howard outright, the Warriors would have to unload the salaries of Andrew Bogut, Andris Biedrins, and Richard Jefferson. While they're all expiring, if this was a feasible task, don't you think it would have been accomplished already, earlier in the summer? The Warriors knew they'd be pursuing Howard. I'd go so far as to say that making this happen would be close to impossible especially given the duress circumstances in which the Warriors find themselves. (This shows the importance of planning, years in advance. Things would sure be easier for Golden State had they not wasted their one-time amnesty provision on Charlie Bell.)
The real threat is the fact that the Lakers reportedly might be amenable to sign&trades. The question though is how much are the Warriors willing to give up to make this happen. I saw a report that the Lakers would only consider Thompson AND Barnes, but who knows if that's credible. If it's just one of those two players, obviously the Warriors jump. And then the question becomes whether some package surrounding Asik and/or Lin is preferable, especially given the '14 consequences. This whole thing is a mess but the important thing to keep in mind is that none of these reports pertain to any indication given from Howard. It's just the teams themselves bracing for the possibilities.
Next, I truly wonder if Dwight Howard understands that to get him, the Warriors would have to give up a major piece of their rotation. This goes back to that fiduciary duty theme I've been writing about. And you laugh when I say that, thinking, "come on, he's not that dumb" but it's completely possible. I think back to some years ago when Tracy McGrady was being interviewed about his time in Orlando on some Houston radio station. The host was asking him about his time with the Magic and he said something along the lines of, "they never gave me any help while I was there but then the year I left they went out and got Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley." Huh? Yeah. Some of these players are that out of touch and from the reports, I'm not completely sure that they're getting the best advice from those who are supposed to be acting in positions of trust. But I'll digress. I'm not going to bore you with legal ethics when you're already about to lose it from anxiety.
We're most likely going to hear a decision by sometime today. Remember, while the Lakers very well may now be willing to engage in sign&trade talks, this comes down to Howard himself. Where does he want to go? If he wants to walk to Houston, he can go there outright. And the interesting thing is that Howard has kept his mouth shut, giving no signs. The big man has seemed to learn from the past, staying off Twitter and according himself professionally throughout this process. He very well may already have made up his mind a few days ago.
I won't give a prediction but it seems the Lakers are out. Thank you, Kobe. If Howard wants the Warriors, I can't fault him. We'll just have to wait and see. I just hope he realizes it's not that full squad (meaning all three of Curry, Barnes, and Thompson) whom he'll be playing with.
Howard or not, the one thing I will predict is that regardless of what happens today, the Rockets will come to terms quickly with Josh Smith by the end of the weekend. I don't know how I feel about that, but that's a topic that's already been beaten to death.
The Warriors are making a run apparantly, I think there's some plausibility in them making it work but boy it's a hard road and they still need to flip a lot more moves after that to make a proper team around him and Curry after (since I suspect they would need to trade Klay and Barnes to get Diwght.)
sign and trade makes sense. lakers sign d-12 and then trade him to the rockets for lin/asik. I think both teams get something and it makes sense.
Could it be possible that Kobe is actually trying to drive DH away? We all know he doesn't really get along with Howard and has advocated for keeping Gasol....is it possible?
https://twitter.com/Chris_Broussard/status/352833006400053248
What a shocker. Only in Kobe's mind could that possibly have been a good idea...
\"Teach him to be a champion?\" That\'s rich, Kobe.
Bryant would do the same thing to Howard that he has done to Shaq and Gasol/Bynum: ride the league\'s most dominant frontcourt to a championship, and then take the credit. The 6-24 game and ensuing Finals MVP is a microcosm of Kobe\'s career.
McHale actually has a track record of mentoring and teaching guys like Kevin Garnett and Kevin Love to take their games to the next level.
The only big man you could argue that Kobe ever mentored was Bynum, a physically gifted train wreck.
Follow me on Twitter where I'm much better about updating throughout the day.
Well, here we are - Part 11. Supposedly, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Howard's decision could come this Friday. I'm still waiting for confirmation from Buster Olney.
In seriousness, if true, I wouldn't at all be shocked if we got some sort of leak regarding the announcement by sometime today. If you're Howard, you might want to bury the immediate maelstrom on a holiday and duck for cover. So have your Tweetdeck's out and handy. There, I just ruined your 4th of July.
This is it. After nearly two full years of discussion surrounding Dwight Howard, we are going to have a decision likely by week's end. By the time you all go back to work on Monday, this Rockets team may have become a title contender overnight. Boy am I going to be depressed if he heads elsewhere.
I think Golden State is out. The logistics would seem awkward and don't seem to make much sense. He'll be making his decision but then would have to get the Lakers to cooperate in a deal? Something like, "I've decided on the Warriors....uhh, by the way, would you mind giving me a hand?" That'd be really odd and I think we would have already heard wind of the machinations by now. To get to Golden State, Howard has to threaten to leave to Houston/Dallas outright first, to get the Lakers to play ball, and I think we would have already heard about those discussions by now from someone in one of the camps. But if he could somehow make it work, I wouldn't fault him. Golden State, like Houston, is a great basketball situation with a rabid fanbase. He'd also be taking less money to play for a winner. (Remember that with the new S&T rules, a player cannot be signed and traded for the same amount as if he signed with his original team. Yet unlike Dallas/Houston, Howard would not benefit from Texas tax laws.)
If he remains with L.A., we'll know he suffers from Stockholm, especially after what reportedly was said to him in the other day's meeting by Kobe Bryant. I just don't know how one can return to a team with a guy that point-blank accused him of faking an injury, publicly, showed no remorse, and then followed up with more patronizing in his final pitch. But hey, L.A.'s one hell of a place to live if you're rich.
Dallas is a similar situation, like L.A., where if he signs on, he'll waste yet another year of his precious prime. A colleague last year wrote a seminar paper on sports agents and fiduciary ethics and if Dan Fegan is able to successfully steer his client towards good friend Mark Cuban, that'll be yet another prime case study into the topic. This is really a matter which isn't discussed nearly enough in the media, but while it probably doesn't have any social harm, the power held by some of the more prominent agent in brokering their clients against said clients' pecuniary interests is something that really needs to be addressed by each of the three respective major sports leagues. But with pathetically weak players' unions --which couldn't crawl to begin with sans agency representation--and the league itself likely not giving a damn, fat chance on that ever happening.
Houston is hands down the best situation for Dwight Howard from any objective angle.
If he comes, he'll be crucified, and I think that's sad. What does he owe the Lakers? He's a free agent who served the duration of his employment contract. It will be said that he left the team high and dry with nothing after they gave up so much to get him. False. The value the Lakers gave up to get Howard (Andrew Bynum) was adjusted with implicit recognition of the risk involved with respect to him leaving. In example, they only were able to get him to begin with because he had 1 year remaining on his deal. If there was no risk of Howard leaving, they couldn't have gotten him for just Bynum. The risk was an inherent component of the deal.
But of course, if he leaves, all of that will be ignored and we'll end up getting dumber from the discourse that ensues. That's usually the case with these things.
And Phil Jackson drops a bomb on the Lakers. There's no bad blood between him and Jim is there :)
Per Peter Vescey:
“What to do if you’re DH? Last week, I’m told, Phil Jackson was asked by Lakers (no, not Jeanie) 2 speak 2 DH about staying. He declined..”
“Jackson wondered out loud how, in good conscience, he could ask Howard to play in a system incompatible to his skills..”
http://hoopshype.com/twitter/media.html#ixzz2Y3wxg3iT
http://hoopshype.com/twitter/media.html#ixzz2Y3woaZJ3
Question,who leaked?
Was it Phil,knowing Dwight is probably leaving anyway trying to make sure Jim Buss gets the blame.
Or was it Phil twisting the knife into the man who beat him out for the job?
Jeannie trying to advance in her Game of Thrones w/Jim?
Some disgruntled holdover from Dr Buss era,maybe one who used to play for them?
Did Vescey just make it up?
Enquiring minds want to know.
I have thought this was a two horse race all along (the Lakers and the Rockets). after I read that article I agree if Howard was considering the Lakers that may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. I feel even better now that we will get him. Kobe is so full of himself that it's oozing out his ears :lol:
https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/352539495138201601
First, if you aren't following me on Twitter yet, please do so: @redninetyfour. While I don't have the time to write longform here more than once a day, I think most would agree I am usually pretty good about sharing my thoughts over Twitter as news breaks throughout the day.
Next, the report above, in my opinion, was the news of the day. I'm not sure why I'm even surprised by this. What else would anyone expect from Bryant? The same narcissism that's driven him towards greatness now could potentially be a superseding factor in pushing yet another Hall of Fame center out of town.
After Bryant spent a full season patronizing Howard, one wonders how he can possibly think that same strong-armed attitude would do anything but drive Howard away.
And if you're Howard, after being marginalized, after being accused of faking an injury when actually playing hurt, now you are being sold to stay by being told you can only learn from Bryant how to win? How can you possibly find that appealing?
Wanna blow a Laker fan's mind?
Tell them that if they keep Dwight the Lakers have NO Cap Space in 2014.
Dwight $22mil. Nash $9mil. Kobe's Cap Hold $30mil+. $61mil before roster holds,ie,NO Cap Space.
Of course if the Lakers renounce their rights to Kobe they remove his Cap Hold.
But their Cap room is not great even then.
Dwight $22mil,Nash $9mil,$5mil in Roster holds adds up to $36mil and if the Cap is @ $61mil that leaves a whopping $25mil to sign FAs.
I bring this up as some LA/ESPN reporter was fantasizing about Lebron,Kobe,Camelo and Dwight. I want to see the pictures that would convince Kobe,LeBron and Carmelo to split $25mil.
Heck,I'd like to see how LeBron and Kobe would split $25mil.
error in video, i do believe he was 3rd behind KD and harden...@1:53
I like watching draft express videos and reading their reports, I've never seen them do ones for NBA free agents before, but for some reason they did one for Dwight which I thought was pretty cool and hopefully a start for more to come:
Team China cause Yao played here and Lin's present. Fans follow where ever their players go. I think they will keep Lin until they run out of options.
Morey interview on 790, this is part 2, part 1 was just going into the what happened in the Dwight meeting (and noting that the hosts are calling him 5:30 in the morning so he's contemplating on calling a drone strike on them ;))
This part has a lot of very interesting nuggets though.
-Host asks where Jeremy Lin stands with Rox because he wasn’t at meeting.
-Daryl: Dwight is excited to play with Omer and Jeremy. He’s seen the rumors. Dwight likes that theROXare team China and likes that Jeremy attacks as a guard. He likes Omer. Their names have been out there in rumors. Rumor that Omer would be available is not true. Originally they were trying to create room people called IN about Jeremy and Omer. Not looking to move either.
-Host: So if you could sign Dwight and keep the lineup in tact you’d want to do that? Keep Omer in starting lineup with Dwight?
-Daryl: No. They wouldn’t play together, maybe sometimes in experiments. We feel with both playing (Omer as backup) they have top 10 defense on floor at all times.
-Host: Omer would be aHUGEluxury though?
-Daryl: Yeah, people say that but we don’t look at it that way. What Omer would bring in his minutes is bigger than what another player would bring that we would trade him for. An upgrade at the 4 wouldn’t bring as much to the team as Omer in 15-20 minutes.
-Host: You are just worried about the drop off in rebounding.
-Daryl: Dwight was #1 impact defender in league and Omer was top 5.
-Host: Dwight is plan A. If you don’t get Dwight would you try to float the cap space? No long term deal? Or is good plan B out there?
-Daryl: Couple of things. If we don’t get Dwight we will beHURT. We wouldNOThave doneTROBdeal. We’ve gambled on Dwight. We are waiting on him and missing other moves in free agency, but we are fully committed to bringing Dwight here.
-Host: Recap: Most important thing you said is that Jeremy Lin and Omer are not available. Only last resort if S&T to get dwight?
-Daryl: No sign and trade to get Dwight. Lakers are not interested in doing that. We have the room to sign him on the 10th and we hope he goes our direction.
(If we look back on this post on my arguments of why I would want to keep Asik with Dwight, it's amazing how close those reasoning was with Morey's answers to the hosts.)
They certainly aren't trading Love for Asik and Lin. That team is full of PGs and they have a pretty solid C.
Wishfull thinking:
1. Sign D12
2. Trade asik & lin for klove and shabazz
3. sign back up wing defender(brewer)
4. sign camby (vet league min.)
5 howard/camby
4 love/dmo/tjones
3 parsons/brewer
2 harden/muhammed
1 bev/canaan
starters provide ample amounts of drive and dish threes, respectable to potential + defense thru bev parsons and d12, and the best rebouning frontcourt in the nba
bench brings youth and energy(canaan and muhammed) respectable back up defense with brewer and camby, and shooters in dmo tjones muhammed and canaan
ultimately we could have a team ready for any particular situation to come up: late game 3's, crutial rebounding, late game defense, blow-outs
any suggestions?
welcome to the forum :rolleyes: CAMBY? fist off he is under contract to the raptors, but even if they cut him we don't need him. Love wouldn't be bad, but minny ain't trading him no time soon.
Quick note about the Lakers\' \"Winning Culture\" as it relates to their great big men -- Wilt Chamberlain got beat repeatedly by Bill Russell\'s Celtics for most of his career. Kareem won a championship on his own with the Milwaukee Bucks (!) before going to Los Angeles. Shaq left the Lakers and got another ring with the Heat.
L.A. has benefited from having championship talent; talent does not become championship material just by going to L.A.
*cut to Karl Malone nodding his head.*
You don't have to defend your choice. It's oblivious, one is a top 20 player, the other is barely a top 20 PF.and in defense of choosing love instead of smith:
love in minnesota always has the best interior defense played on him. With this team he will be a force to be reckoned with camping in the opposite corner from parsons. Defenders will ultimately have to pick there poison leaving someone open for 3 or surrendering dunk after dunk after dunk to pick and roll from harden and d12. kloves job will be 3rd option which would be the only problem i see from this scenario. However i think that if his %'s are thru the roof and he's winning(everyone whose ever played any sports ultimate goal), he will be satisfied.
With smith he will have to work on his shot and at this stage in his career ( exp not age) in not so sure u can teach an old dog new tricks. the only way i would see him making it in this situation is if he has been steadily improving his shooting% and eff% which in all have pretty much stayed terminal or regressed with his playing time.
realizing love had a down year, he was also injured and didnt play with passion
if he has the time to rehab properly and actually cares to play(contract yr in the horizon) than i believe he will return to klove of old 20-12, 50-40-85 and houston will have atleast 3 all-stars
and in defense of choosing love instead of smith:
love in minnesota always has the best interior defense played on him. With this team he will be a force to be reckoned with camping in the opposite corner from parsons. Defenders will ultimately have to pick there poison leaving someone open for 3 or surrendering dunk after dunk after dunk to pick and roll from harden and d12. kloves job will be 3rd option which would be the only problem i see from this scenario. However i think that if his %'s are thru the roof and he's winning(everyone whose ever played any sports ultimate goal), he will be satisfied.
With smith he will have to work on his shot and at this stage in his career ( exp not age) in not so sure u can teach an old dog new tricks. the only way i would see him making it in this situation is if he has been steadily improving his shooting% and eff% which in all have pretty much stayed terminal or regressed with his playing time.
realizing love had a down year, he was also injured and didnt play with passion
if he has the time to rehab properly and actually cares to play(contract yr in the horizon) than i believe he will return to klove of old 20-12, 50-40-85 and houston will have atleast 3 all-stars
may need to throw someone else in the trade btw( insert dmo or tjones not both, and a bunch of bottom feeders on our roster
Wishfull thinking:
1. Sign D12
2. Trade asik & lin for klove and shabazz
3. sign back up wing defender(brewer)
4. sign camby (vet league min.)
5 howard/camby
4 love/dmo/tjones
3 parsons/brewer
2 harden/muhammed
1 bev/canaan
starters provide ample amounts of drive and dish threes, respectable to potential + defense thru bev parsons and d12, and the best rebouning frontcourt in the nba
bench brings youth and energy(canaan and muhammed) respectable back up defense with brewer and camby, and shooters in dmo tjones muhammed and canaan
ultimately we could have a team ready for any particular situation to come up: late game 3's, crutial rebounding, late game defense, blow-outs
any suggestions?
Some escape characters seem to have sneaked into your post Rahat.
Howard asked Rockets to add another star. Roster will be gutted if they signed another star. Not sure how Parsons felt about the question during the meeting. What D12 basically saying was he didn't think highly of any other Rocket players other than Harden.
With Howard set to meet with the Mavericks and Lakers later today, I wouldn\'t be shocked if we didn\'t get an announcement by day\'s end.
To begin, if you haven\'t already, be sure to check out Slim Thug\'s pitch to Dwight Howard. It\'s a brilliant dissertation on comparative cost of living and housing prices. To quote Deadspin, truly Slim\'s best work since his cameo in \"Check on it.\"
https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/351758220513116162
https://twitter.com/ramonashelburne/statuses/351756355528441856
The lawyer in me immediately sees red flags painted all over this situation. Shelburne\'s follow-up tweets intimate that the league has given consent to TWC\'s presence at the meeting and that no compensation would be offered. I personally don\'t see how this isn\'t bordering on outright circumvention of the CBA, but what the hell do I know?
Overall, at the time of writing, my mood is one of skepticism. The Lakers are putting on a full-court press in catering to Howard\'s greatest vulnerabilities from emotional appeals to his desires for the glitz and glamour of the big city. And as I wrote earlier, I do not think the magnitude can be understated of the impact of the Lakers pitching last. While some saw it as a good sign, I think Houston was in the most disadvantaged position of all of the suitors by going first. If I had to guess, I\'d predict that we\'ll hear by tomorrow that he\'s staying in L.A. We\'ll know what Dwight Howard\'s priorities are soon enough.
When do you see a decision on Dwight's part?
I posted this regarding Calderon in the Lin page.
Whether you like Lin or not, replacing him with Calderon is the
second worst option after rondo. Calderon will command about the same
money possibly more. Also Calderon like Rondo is a ball dominant
pointguard and doesn't play well off the ball. Living in Toronto the
past 5 years I have watched a lot of him. He is not a nice fit next to
Harden. I rather us keep Lin, and if we have to trade him, I rather just
stick with Bev and try to sign a veteran for a lot less than what
Calderon will command.
Calderon 3point shooting is good, but he is a very reluctant shooter,
here in Toronto people hated him that he wasn't more selfish and always
tries to set people up. And to me its, that you can't teach an old dog
to sit so Calderon won't change his game enough to fit in Houston.
To continue on this. Calderon reluctance to shoot is almost funny, but if I rank top 10 overall pgs he would be in mine.
It's just he is not a good fit with Harden and also he can't beat his man off his dribble. People also complained about his D here in Toronto. He is even worse than Lin since he is less athletic and considerably slower laterally than Lin.
I rather either keep Lin if it is between Calderon and Lin. However if we can move Lin for Smith I take Smith. If we have a quartet of Smith, Parsons, Harden and Howard, playing Bev as a starter basically focusing on spotting up and D, he would be almost the perfect fit next to Harden. All we need to shore up is a veteran combo guard who can play 15-20 minutes when Harden or Bev is resting.
Wow, was just looking at Calderon's stats at mysynergysports.com....His shooting numbers for spot-ups are off the charts! Bringing him in as an off the ball PG/shooter would suit the Rockets quite nicely. Plus, according to mysynergy, his defense isn't as bad as people say...according tot he numbers...it helps having defensive backstops behind you...which he would have in Houston.
As for your point above, Richards, I disagree. I think Howard and Harden will compliment each others' games quite well and will help each other be more productive than they could have on their own. I don't think Harden will care one way or the other about perception. I think he just likes to play ball. Harden will benefit on his dribble penetration as defenders simply cannot slide over and leave Dwight alone under the basket. If they do, Harden gets an assist and Howard gets a dunk. What's not to like? Meanwhile, Howard in the post gets to do his thing and once the other team starts doubling him, Harden gets the kick out pass for an open three pointer (he shoots 39% on spot up 3's according to mysynergy). Howard gets an assist and Harden gets a three pointer.
Howard will feast on missed shots by Harden, Parsons, whoever. He will get lots of rebounds and be able to go back up and finish (something Asik struggled with at times due to his lack of explosive leaping ability). Since most shots are off dribble penetration at the rim defenders aren't going to be able to box out Howard as well as they should because they had to slide over to protect the rim--this means more boards for Howard. I think they are going to love playing together as each will help the other achieve more with less effort.
Most believe Harden is biggest selling point to Howard. I thought totally opposite.
-Are Rockets building around Harden or Howard?
I would take Calderon over Lin as well considering the situation. Llull also is available to bring in if Lin could be moved. Like I wrote before he just doesn't fit but he will be a very productive NBA player somewhere, just not Houston.
I'm scared to even start writing this for fear of it becoming outdated by the time I hit publish. In ten minutes, the Rockets will begin their meeting with Dwight Howard.
Earlier today, they traded Thomas Robinson to the Blazers for what amounts to four future prospects. The news also broke that the team has placed both guard Jeremy Lin and center Omer Asik on the trade market. The news on Lin doesn't come as too big a shock, but with Asik, it signals that Daryl Morey's eyes could be on some far bigger prize.
Asik might be the league's best value contract, slated at just $8.3million for a player who brings some of the best defensive contributions in the sport. I would have hoped that the Rockets would, even if signing Dwight, hold onto Omer, ensuring that for 48 minutes, each night, they would enjoy elite level rim protection. It can be argued that if adding Dwight, it would make sense to allocate Asik's value towards other needs. I think, however, that he's a luxury we cannot afford to lose.
If Morey is to trade Omer Asik, I don't think it will be in a trade of the sort of which we've become accustomed [in bringing back undervalued hidden gems.> I think it would only happen for someone he'd consider a true third star to fit next to Howard and Harden. Possible targets seem like Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Josh Smith.
I don't know how doable Rondo or Aldridge trades would be because those teams would certainly want back young assets in combination with Asik. The likelier candidate is Smith who is a free agent and a childhood friend of Howard's.
By some measures, Smith was the very best perimeter defender in the entire NBA, last season. Along with Howard, Smith would thrust the Rockets into the elite category of defenses. But his warts offensively are well-documented. If it came down to it, I'd prefer to just keep Asik and develop the young power forwards. But I'm torn. Smith has been, at the very least, the second best player on a Hawks team that has made the playoffs year in and year out. The little things he does to effect the game are undeniable.
Somewhere in Los Angeles, at this very moment, a cadre including Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, James Harden, Kevin McHale, and Daryl Morey is speaking with Dwight Howard.
Well, whatever happens, let's hope this conversation doesn't take place:
D12: "I'm a little concerned about taking less money to sign with Houston."
McHale: "Don't worry D12. We'll, uh, take care of you when you opt out after three years (wink-wink)."
D12: "What do you mean by 'Take care of me'? And do you need some Visine or something for your eye?"
McHale: "No! You know, TAKE CARE OF YOU (wink wink wink)."
D12: "You mean, like, guaranteeing me a max deal after I opt out right now?"
McHale: "No, no! We would never do that, I would never do that, um, again. And I never said or offered or fantasized about doing that, do you understand me! Do you hear that, Stern?! You got nothing on me this time!"
Morey: "(sigh) Kevin, Rambis is walking down the hallway. Why don't you go out there and clothesline him for old time's sake while Dwight and I talk, okay?"
one of the possible landing spots for lin is detroit, sign and trade for calderon
one of the possible landing spots for lin is detroit, sign and trade for calderon
Well that would explain why those two weren't included in the D12 recruiting contingency...
Hehe...my thoughts exactly. Well that and Lin and Asik have never really been friends with Howard like Parsons and Harden. But still it would have been quite awkward for them to show up to the wooing and then get traded a couple of days later.
being reported now that asik and lin are being shopped.
being reported now that asik and lin are being shopped.
Trob to the blazers for two 2nds and rights to 2 foriegn players.
the fact that the rockets pulled this trade off before talking to Howard tells me they are confident about landing him :rolleyes:
The Mavs are countering with Cuban and Dirk in their recruiting party....I like our chances :)
Re the talking to Harden and Parsons.
Depending on what Dwight is asking it's either good for Houston...or bad.
First,it gives Dwight more info to analyze and since it's from peers it has weight.
It's good that he's legitimately interested enough to have lots of questions to ask.
It's bad if someone is feeding him Houston sucks because of this or that and Harden and Parsons are playing defense.
(Cybrex claim on CF may point to this last. He said Dwight was thinking of leaving his Agent,Fegan. If Fegan is saying such-and-such against Houston and Harden and Parsons are telling Dwight no that's not true... OTOH,it's likely just water cooler gossip repeated w/no basis in reality.)
We are apparently the team to beat: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--dwight-howard-s-free-agent-courtship-to-begin-with-rockets-as-frontrunners-023015124.html
j.r smith wouldnt be a bad fit for this team off the bench
Ok guys something a little less statistically and financially driven and a bit more opinion. I was listening to a podcast and I don't know if it was the Basketball Jones, Isreal Gutierrez or Bill Simmons but I thought it might be a valid point as far as socializing goes. Howard and his goofy sense of humour would fit right in with Parsons, Lin and Harden and their quirkyness. That maybe if it all does go down that these players will coexist well off the court and on the court perhaps leading to good chemistry or at least whatever that comraderie adds to a team gelling in addition to the hard work and goals that are set and owned as common responsibilities.
totally agree. Howard would fit this team like a glove. I was on clutch fans today and saw that Hakeem is part of the delegation to talk to Howard. Houston pulling out the heavy hitters on this one. saw a comment there that sums up totally how I feel about Hakeem being part of the delegation
If Dream pulls this off, they should add two more blocks to his total for
blocking both the Lakers and the Mavs in their pursuit of Dwight.
Why not bring back Delfino on a new contract? Vet minimum too much to handle?
Why not bring back Delfino on a new contract? Vet minimum too much to handle?
Don't get me wrong--I like a few of those guys...webster and wright the most....I was just saying it is considerably less exciting than Howard.
...that is less exciting.... :mellow:
I think most of those guys will get offered more money than Houston will have/want to give them.
remember we weren't to thrilled with the delfino signing either, but it was exactly what the doctor ordered :P
A couple less exciting free agent options for depth could be kyle korver,Sam dalembert, Anthony Morrow, dorell wright, Wayne Ellington,Leandro barbosa.
...that is less exciting.... :mellow:
I think most of those guys will get offered more money than Houston will have/want to give them.
Well that's just rock-solid circumstantial evidence right there...
not if you're the Lakers
the fact he hasn't committed to the Lakers and is talking to Harden and parsons regularly
the fact he hasn't committed to the Lakers and is talking to Harden and parsons regularly
he doesn't have to say it.........action speaks louder than words. this is how we will feel after july 10th
How do you know Howard likes Houston. Has he said this, or are we going by these same sources that everyone here seems to disregard whenever information that links Howard to another team that is not Houston is leaked?
he doesn't have to say it.........action speaks louder than words. this is how we will feel after july 10th
@JG
I agree. I don't think Howard will have any trouble playing with us. he likes us and he hasn't even heard our main pitch yet. I'm sure Morey will squash any reservations he has :P
@JG
I agree. I don't think Howard will have any trouble playing with us. he likes us and he hasn't even heard our main pitch yet. I'm sure Morey will squash any reservations he has :P
I don't know where you guys are getting your information from? I don't see any sources here so what we're talking about is hearsay--at best. I heard the rumor that Howard doesn't like the uptempo stuff--that's fine. Asik wasn't involved in the fast break either. Howard can serve as a great trailer if fast breaks don't pan out and the ball comes back out to the perimeter--Lin/Harden/Parsons can hit him cutting through the lane for an easy 2--I've got no problem with this.
As for his 20-25 touches--he'll get those. He should see 10-12 in the post on ISOs and then he will get to put himself on sportscenter after every game running 10-12+ pick n rolls and getting monster dunks over whoever decides to get in the way. Think about it--Asik was able to fare pretty well doing this...and he can't really jump and has fumble-fingers. Dwight--with Harden/Lin getting him good passes--will remember what it's like to dominate and the rest will be history.
As for being the #1 option--when has he said this? I think he wants the opposite. I think that's why he went to LA in the first place. Why would you go play with Kobe and Pau if you wanted to be "the man"--makes no sense.
As for the Rockets' system not suiting Howard--let's be clear here...the Rocket's system is take the shots with the best %'s. Dwight in the post is a good %...not a great one...but a good one that has other effects. Harden and Howard combined will effectively foul out the oppositions entire front line--they won't have any defenders left--this leads to higher % shots. In the meantime, the pick n roll will be a very high % shot. Dwight getting double-teamed leaves open 3 pt. shooters...that's a high % shot. Rotation defenders will struggle rolling away from Dwight knowing he can get any rebound/alley-oop from Harden/Lin's penetration...this means their shot % will go up too....I could go on....he fits the parameters of our system just fine. Oh, and he plays some decent defense too...
But Howard wants touches and McHales system limited post touches last year. It's up to Morey/Mchale to convince him he'll get his 20-25 post ups a game.
doubt as you may, but the rockets are the front runners now and Howard is there player to lose. when he hears our pitch full force instead of through the back channels his mind will be made up :rolleyes:while I do believe the Lakers are still in the running they have fallen to a distant 3rd. it's us or dallas, and any body including steve wonder could see we look better than dallas B)
this was just howard's camp using broussard to try to get in that d'antoni demand. nothing's really changed here.
While I don't doubt that Broussard has some inside information from Howard's people, I still think that Dwight has a pretty good shot of ending up in Houston. I think he's really tired of losing while surrounded by players who aren't able to shoulder the load, especially after dealing with overrated help in Orlando and the oft-injured lineup in L.A.
Dallas wouldn't be a contender next season, even with Dwight. Neither would Atlanta or the Lakers. Houston would be. I think there's a decent chance that he will be in a "Win now!" mode, since excelling in the playoffs seems to be the only way to rid him of some of the negative stigma he's got right now. At least to me, that seems like part of the decision process for him to consider.
I don't think D12 will sign with us. Just based on that he wants to be the nr 1 options which I never think a big man who can't shot free throw should be. He wants to post up despite that he is not even that great of a post up player. He doesn't like the uptempo system and thereof lack of post up oppurturnities, he is just to selfish to think at the big picture. He rather lose than win as a 2nd or 3rd option.
Bingo.
I don't think D12 will sign with us. Just based on that he wants to be the nr 1 options which I never think a big man who can't shot free throw should be. He wants to post up despite that he is not even that great of a post up player. He doesn't like the uptempo system and thereof lack of post up oppurturnities, he is just to selfish to think at the big picture. He rather lose than win as a 2nd or 3rd option.
Bullet points from this article, all info coming from the ubiquitous "Sources":
1. D12 unlikely to re-sign with LA.
2. Mavs are a contender (as long as they can shed Marion's $9 million contract)and may be more appealing to Houston.
3. Houston's current uptempo style seen as a negative by D12.
4. D12 doesn't believe a sign-and-trade between the LA teams will happen, although playing with Paul would be his first preference.
The Mavs are a legit threat to sign D12 as long as they can offer him the max. All we've heard the last month or so is "Houston-Houston-Houston!", but never discount Cuban.
Wow, Marketing 101 and all of a sudden the Lakers are "desperate"
That may be Marketing 101, but remember who this is. The Lakers haven't had to use anything they learned in marketing 101 in years because they were the place to be. The fact that the Lakers (of all teams) has resorted to these kind of tactics says that they are seriously concerned that their previous allure won't be sufficient to keep Howard in LA.
@JohnnyRocket
I agree the bill boards smells of desperation. the mighty Lakers are desperate...........I love it. I have been predicting this all along so you guys know where I stand.
Wow, Marketing 101 and all of a sudden the Lakers are "desperate"
@JohnnyRocket
I agree the bill boards smells of desperation. the mighty Lakers are desperate...........I love it. I have been predicting this all along so you guys know where I stand.
As I've said before, I really don't think the Lakers are interested in Griffin and Bledsoe (or Crawford), so I consider the Clippers a non-factor. The Lakers believe that they can use Howard as the nucleus of a championship team. That makes sense: a dominant big-man has been the cornerstone of their success for decades. But if they don't get Howard, their next bet is a core of Lebron--Bosh--Kobe--Nash--high draft pick in 2014-15. That strikes me as a more viable strategy than trying to build around Griffin and Bledsoe, who aren't going to attract the really big name talent. And even if the Lakers fail to get Lebron and Bosh, they still have lots of flexibility and cap space going forward, which is ultimately a lot more valuable than a defensive-challenged power forward and a young, inconsistent point guard who will soon be eligible for a big raise.
I really think it comes down to LA and the Rockets for Howard. The Lakers have put up billboards today asking Howard to stay. That reeks of desperation to me.
Marc Stein tweeted some nuggets of Rocket relevance today, saying:
First, regarding McHale: This confirms the conventional wisdom regarding that hire. There were men available far better equipped for the task but for a team whose most recognizable figure was its general manager, Houston needed a figurehead. Now with McHale, they can approach Dwight Howard with pedigree.
On Robinson: A few thoughts. I was sharply critical of his abilities last season, even stating recently that I saw "nothing in him that makes me think he'll ever be an impact player on this team." That the Rockets are on the verge of dealing Robinson is not an affirmation of that sentiment nor is it an indictment of the player himself. This is a move simply being made for cap room. Yes, there are some analytical nuances (namely the deduction that the team would prefer to part ways with the former #5 overall pick rather than dealing both Terrence Jones and Motiejunas, but that's not much of a logical leap), but to be clear: this is completely about cap room.
It's also been posited that that Morey is readily willing to deal T-Rob is proof that the former is sure or has been given assurance that Howard will be signing. This is nonsense. Dealing Robinson to clear the necessary cap room to even give himself a shot at Howard is what any reasonable manager would do. This isn't exactly a high risk gamble. He's trading a marginal player to give himself a chance. Don't read too much into it. While Morey likely is feeling confident about his chances, this T-Rob aspect isn't probative evidence of anything.
Lastly, the one that made you smile: after it seemed like the Clippers might have pushed to the forefront, now most reports seem to be pointing back towards Houston. With the way the tide has turned, we'll just have to wait and see. But two things are extremely encouraging. 1) The above point, regarding rival executives and 2) the testimony from Chandler Parsons that he and Howard speak daily. Why are these encouraging? Because after the Clippers story broke, my suspicion had become that all of the early reports linking Howard to Houston had actually been planted leaks from Howard's camp in attempts to build a viable threat. The theory was that if Howard would eventually need the Lakers' participation (in a S&T), he'd need to create a fear that he'd leave somewhere outright. But if he's asking Parsons questions daily, as Parsons testified, there likely is genuine interest.
I'll be back tomorrow with more coverage after the Rockets make their selection at #14. Ah, wait...
More or less agree with this though I think if the Rockets can find someone to take Lin off their hands it would increase financial flexibility.
I'm more in tune with this. Lin's cap hit can be better used
More or less agree with this though I think if the Rockets can find someone to take Lin off their hands it would increase financial flexibility.
True, but with that roster, I don't think it is as necessary. While he may be overpaid as of now, I don't necessarily know if there is anyone I like better at PG (especially in the way I would like to see him used). He is only on contract for 2 more years, and he has shown some promise and I would hate to deal him and then see him blossom. I think you see how he develops between years 1 and 2 before you move him. If he becomes a stud, then you have the right to resign him. If he proves to be mediocre you can let him walk after year three or find someone willing to take him as an expiring. If he shows promise as a sixth man though and is affordable, you resign him to a more reasonable contract for a 6th man.
More or less agree with this though I think if the Rockets can find someone to take Lin off their hands it would increase financial flexibility.I am a proponent of getting Howard at the expense of Robinson (Royce White if we can pay someone enough to take him off our hands and our cap) and stopping there. I think there is real promise in the following line-ups. Note: I am still a proponent of Lin coming off bench ala Ginobili (who killed the Spurs..)
PG Bev/Lin
SG Harden/Anderson
SF Parsons/Cheap Shooter for spot minutes
PF DMo/Jones
C Howard/Asik
I put DMo in starting because I think he might mesh better-with Howard and if he can re-find his shooting stroke can stretch the floor and open the paint. If not, Jones can start. I can see all sort of lethal line-ups being formed from that group. From Twin Towers with Howard & Asik to guard heavy with Harden sliding to SF (to give Parsons rest) and Lin coming in as SG. The core 8 would be Bev, Lin, Harden, Parsons, DMo, Jones, Howard, Asik with Anderson and the back-up SF really being spot-minutes/depth. What are y'alls thoughts?
I'm all for this. This roster gives tons of flexibility. Heck, I'd even consider running Harden/Anderson together in the first unit and give Lin/Bev the second unit. Anderson, as an off the ball scorer would work well next to Harden--plus his defense is decent and he rebounds very well for a guard. Also, we wouldn't be wasting Lin's talent and energy trying to co-exist with Harden as much.
With Lin and Bev you get two solid ball handlers that can each knock down the three and against inferior second units should dominate.
I think a rotation like this would give us 48 solid minutes night in and night out from the guard position.
Parsons will do his thing at the 3.
On the front line, as mentioned before, we can go big and brutal (Howard/Asik), fast and skilled (Jones/Motie), and anything in between. Again, no reason not to get 48 solid minutes a night from these guys.
Even if Howard winds up elsewhere, there is so much to like about the Rockets' future.
Regarding Josh Smith, I still think he would be great here in Houston, but I'm starting to believe that Morey's practical, fiscally prudent side is going to stick with the young, very affordable guys at PF. I can't argue with this as surely one, if not more, of these guys will wind up pretty good. We don't need them to be Karl Malone--a Horace Grant/Robert Horry will do just fine.
I am a proponent of getting Howard at the expense of Robinson (Royce White if we can pay someone enough to take him off our hands and our cap) and stopping there. I think there is real promise in the following line-ups. Note: I am still a proponent of Lin coming off bench ala Ginobili (who killed the Spurs..)
PG Bev/Lin
SG Harden/Anderson
SF Parsons/Cheap Shooter for spot minutes
PF DMo/Jones
C Howard/Asik
I put DMo in starting because I think he might mesh better-with Howard and if he can re-find his shooting stroke can stretch the floor and open the paint. If not, Jones can start. I can see all sort of lethal line-ups being formed from that group. From Twin Towers with Howard & Asik to guard heavy with Harden sliding to SF (to give Parsons rest) and Lin coming in as SG. The core 8 would be Bev, Lin, Harden, Parsons, DMo, Jones, Howard, Asik with Anderson and the back-up SF really being spot-minutes/depth. What are y'alls thoughts?
I'd be down with giving that a try until atleast the trade deadline and maybe longer. Of course I am part of the minority that think Asik/Howard can work together even if it is just for small spurts of time.
I am a proponent of getting Howard at the expense of Robinson (Royce White if we can pay someone enough to take him off our hands and our cap) and stopping there. I think there is real promise in the following line-ups. Note: I am still a proponent of Lin coming off bench ala Ginobili (who killed the Spurs..)
PG Bev/Lin
SG Harden/Anderson
SF Parsons/Cheap Shooter for spot minutes
PF DMo/Jones
C Howard/Asik
I put DMo in starting because I think he might mesh better-with Howard and if he can re-find his shooting stroke can stretch the floor and open the paint. If not, Jones can start. I can see all sort of lethal line-ups being formed from that group. From Twin Towers with Howard & Asik to guard heavy with Harden sliding to SF (to give Parsons rest) and Lin coming in as SG. The core 8 would be Bev, Lin, Harden, Parsons, DMo, Jones, Howard, Asik with Anderson and the back-up SF really being spot-minutes/depth. What are y'alls thoughts?
On the real though, now I wonder what the plan is. If we sign Howard, are we going to keep Asik and Lin or trade both away? And if we do that, would we look to pair someone like Smith with Howard? How would y'all feel about that? I haven't checked in on the "Josh Smith. Would Ya?" thread in quite sometime. Interesting questions but we now know more than likely one piece is off the table in Chris Paul.
:lol: :lol:that's one way to save some money for cheap a$$ Donald Sterling. ah well..........we were probably better off without him.....Howard is the one more vital to (as brain would say in pinky and the brain) our planto take over the world :lol:cp3 would have been nice though......I would have been lining up Cuban cigars getting ready for championship celebration. even though that would have been on the super team level...I don't think that's the only way to get there. if we get the right mix around Howard Harden and Parsons I could just as easily see us winning a championship. fact is without the 3rd star a team is able to afford better role players.........and how many times have we seen championships come down to role players?
Hehe..love it.
Yes, Paul's off the table. I wonder if the Clippers can pay Paul more than the max, since he is also serving as GM.
:lol: :lol:that's one way to save some money for cheap a$$ Donald Sterling. ah well..........we were probably better off without him.....Howard is the one more vital to (as brain would say in pinky and the brain) our planto take over the world :lol:cp3 would have been nice though......I would have been lining up Cuban cigars getting ready for championship celebration. even though that would have been on the super team level...I don't think that's the only way to get there. if we get the right mix around Howard Harden and Parsons I could just as easily see us winning a championship. fact is without the 3rd star a team is able to afford better role players.........and how many times have we seen championships come down to role players?
Yes, Paul's off the table. I wonder if the Clippers can pay Paul more than the max, since he is also serving as GM.
well I guess this will put all that cp3 talk to rest
then again maybe not..........we been on this road before, however this time looks for real
Well that's good news. I think Parsons is a priority.
we have yet to really see what the rockets plan is, but one thing I am confident on is parsons and harden are part of it. they are about as close to untouchable as any one player can get. now if Miami calls and said Lebron for parsons.....then maybe you move one of them. outside of that, they will be rockets for years to come. I'm more concerned with cp3 right now...........I think we have Howard, but cp3 presents some interesting propositions. the rockets upon draft day will probably clear the room to sign Howard. that leaves both Asik and Lin to possibly be traded for cp3. because I see very little chance the clippers will want to cooperate, it may be necessary to move both those players to different teams to open the cap room to sign cp3 outright. this is not a huge task. Philly will gladly accept both (remember Sam Hinkie is there and knows these players value). they have the necessary cap room if they walk on Bynum. this way the rockets can trade these guys and get assets in return and still sign cp3. these assets can later be used to fill out the team. for Philly the advantage is.........they are trying to rebuild in the wake of the Bynum situation. Lin and Asik provide a foundation to work from. as little as 2 weeks ago I believed we had no real shot at landing both. now I think we have a bird in the hand and one in the bush. my concern is don't lose the bird in hand chasing the bird in the bush. Howard is more important to us. while cp3 does provide flash......Howard provides substance. both can provide a championship
Well that's good news. I think Parsons is a priority.
Interesting thoughts, Johnny Rocket...is it weird that I would be envious of Atlanta's line-up if that happened? :P
Unless CP3 and Howard take discounts--say 10% each--I'm not sure about this plan. It makes me very nervous about what the rest of the team would look like and our ability to retain Parsons once his contract comes up.
@JG
I have done the math. the rockets are able to acquire both howard and cp3 if the respective star say they want to play together. the fact that they would be able to get both and stay under the cap insures they will have money to pay parsons because of the 13 mil dollar cushion between the cap and the tax. the owner has already expressed a willingness to pay the tax, so no problemo :P
Interesting thoughts, Johnny Rocket...is it weird that I would be envious of Atlanta's line-up if that happened? :P
Unless CP3 and Howard take discounts--say 10% each--I'm not sure about this plan. It makes me very nervous about what the rest of the team would look like and our ability to retain Parsons once his contract comes up.
2016Champions' account has now been suspended after that post.
@Rahat
please as a favor to me would you lift 2016 champions suspension. 2016 is a younger poster than myself. not as far down life's highway. we don't teach the younger generation by shutting them out, but by talking to them. one thing I try to practice........always be ready for reconciliation. it's part of my belief. 2016 and I have fallen out before and been able to talk our way through it. I have no doubt we can again.
Rahat and all--what do you make of the fact that the Clippers will (apparently) not get Rivers or Garnett? A lot can still happen, of course, but suppose that on July 1 the Clippers have the same exact roster and appeared to have flubbed highly public negotiations with the Celtics over a coach that Paul really, really wanted? Does it reinforce Paul's sense that the organization is still pretty much dysfunctional?
If Paul considers teaming with Howard in Houston, we'd obviously have to trade Asik and Lin, as well as Robinson, without taking back any salary. A wildcard in all of this is Atlanta. If Paul and Howard say no to Atlanta, the Hawks are in a bad place. Would they accept Asik, Lin, and Robinson for a bunch of protected draft picks? That would give Atlanta a core of Asik, Lin, and Horford, and plenty of room to sign a max free agent and other pieces. If they decided to re-sign Josh Smith, the combination of Horford, Asik, and Smith would be the best defensive front lines in the NBA.
what........you trying to make a correlation between me and this crackpot. trying to insult me on the slide after a graceful admission of defeat. so admitting you were right not good enough for you? if you had been as graceful in previous debates we have had I might not be offended, however if there is a comparison to be made some of the ideas you have put out are much closer to sounding like this jerk than me. remember people who live in glass houses should never throw rocks.
2016Champions' account has now been suspended after that post.
what........you trying to make a correlation between me and this crackpot. trying to insult me on the slide after a graceful admission of defeat. so admitting you were right not good enough for you? if you had been as graceful in previous debates we have had I might not be offended, however if there is a comparison to be made some of the ideas you have put out are much closer to sounding like this jerk than me. remember people who live in glass houses should never throw rocks.
@2016
you may feel this debate was unwarranted...........I don't. I simply don't accept anything I'm being feed like you. through debate a resolution was found that can satisfy all......and though I may be on the wrong side of opinion on this one, the truer understanding of the process is always a greater asset in the long haul. enjoy :lol:I don't loose many debates :rolleyes:
I'm glad we can finally put this matter of S&T's to rest after 7 days of the same things being said over and over.
Moving on, some interesting tweets just now:
Rockets, I'm told, have eyes on fistful of international players they'd draft with a first for Robinson to keep overseas and avoid cap hit
I'm no @chadfordinsider, so hope I'm getting these names right. Players on Rockets' radar: Adetokunbo, Gobert, Karasev, Nogueira, Schroeder
If @ESPNSteinLine tweet's right, keep an eye on Sergey Karasev, 6-7 wing from Russia. Great shooter. Probably willing to stay overseas a yr.
Under new CBA, if player signs letter promising to play overseas entire season, his cap hold is removed from team salary until next season.
I also talk to larry today and it looks like 2016 is right according to larry our chat follows
Hi Larry
love this chat, you are the best. my question…..if a team does a sign and trade whether they receive or send out the sign and trade player doesn’t it create a hard cap 4 mil above the tax line for that team for the remainder of that year? thanks for your time
If a team uses any mechanism reserved for teams below the apron, they are hard capped at the apron for the remainder of the year (through next June 30). This includes receiving a player via sign-and-trade, but not sending one out that way.
Read more at http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-salary-cap-chat-with-larry-coon-62113#ulqlouLBPJALeyrJ.99
Here's more confirmation from Larry Coon's chat today:
Mr. Coon, just to double check,Sign-and-Trades are not allowed this offseason, correct? Or is it next offseason?
It’s starting this season, but it only applies to teams over the apron (which will be around $75.6 million), and it only applies to RECEIVING a player who is signed-and-traded. So, for example, the Lakers will be able to sign-and-trade Dwight Howard to another team, but they won’t be able to receive Josh Smith in a sign-and-trade.
Read more athttp://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-salary-cap-chat-with-larry-coon-62113#HsPuRAtZyLrqVP3y.99
- I had to join the forum to put in my two-cents. Now I am no expert, but I think the difference in this "reading" of the rule is the distinction of the "sign-and-trade player" and "players in a sign-and-trade transaction". They are not one and the same.
Here are the 2 scenarios:If Griffin (under contract)were trade to the Lakers for Howard, then Lakers would be just fine because Griffin is not a free agent, and thus not a "sign-and-trade player." If Griffin was free-agent,andif he was signed and traded to the Lakers for Howard, then Lakers would have a hard cap to stay under.
Since the players being dealt in a trade back to the Lakers do not involve any signing, they are not the "sign-and-trade" player(s). These players fall under the footnote (footnote 1 for point 4 for answer to question 89).
- 1These teams are free to send players to other teams in sign-and-trade transactions, or to receive players in sign-and-trade transactions who weren't signed-and-traded themselves. Also, the restriction applies only to the sign-and-trade transaction itself -- teams are free to acquire players who had been signed-and-traded in earlier transactions.
So: signed-and-traded players incur a hard cap to the receiving team if they are signed-then-traded in the same transaction. Other players involved in the same trade who were not signed in the same fashion would not incur the same hard cap. They would not have delineated the differences in the footnote if all the players in the sign-and-trade transactions were the same.
Smart guy. Welcome to the forum.
Here are the 2 scenarios:If Griffin (under contract)were trade to the Lakers for Howard, then Lakers would be just fine because Griffin is not a free agent, and thus not a "sign-and-trade player." If Griffin was free-agent,andif he was signed and traded to the Lakers for Howard, then Lakers would have a hard cap to stay under.
Since the players being dealt in a trade back to the Lakers do not involve any signing, they are not the "sign-and-trade" player(s). These players fall under the footnote (footnote 1 for point 4 for answer to question 89).
So: signed-and-traded players incur a hard cap to the receiving team if they are signed-then-traded in the same transaction. Other players involved in the same trade who were not signed in the same fashion would not incur the same hard cap. They would not have delineated the differences in the footnote if all the players in the sign-and-trade transactions were the same.
@Stephen
totally agree........I'm pretty good at absorbing what I read. within the statements we discussed on this topic 3 stand out
1.Starting in 2013-14, teams cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade transaction (see question number 89) if their team salary is above the apron at the conclusion of the trade.
2.Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2. A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below the apron
3.Starting in 2013-14 if a team acquires a player in a sign-and-trade, the apron ($4 million above the tax line) effectively becomes a hard cap for the remainder of that season
those seem pretty clear to me. I'm no rocket scientist, but it seems to say both teams must be below the tax apron upon the completion of the trade and remain there for the remainder of the season the sign and trade occurred in whether they sent or received the sign and trade player.
To sum up for those following at home,doing a Sign-N-Trade creates a Hard Cap of $4mil over the LUX Tax threshold that CAN NOT be exceeded that season for both teams involved.
For the Lakers,they currently have the following salaries...Kobe $30.4mil,Gasol $19.3mil,Nash $9.3mil,Artest $7.7mil,Blake $4mil,Hill $3.5mil and Duhon has a buy-out of $1.5mil. There are also several young players on disposable contracts.
These contracts total @ $75mil,w/in a couple mil of where 2014 Apron will be. Since that's just 6 players under contract and a team has to have 13 players and if the other 7 were all on min contracts of $500,000 each,that's $78.5mil+ in contracts,far above the Apron,making a Sign-n-Trade impossible unless the Lakers Amnesty Kobe,Gasol or Artest.
Amnestying Artest does little good as it brings committed salaries down to @ $68mil,leaving perhaps $7-8mil to fill out roster w/8 players.
The Lakers will not Amnesty Kobe.
So to do a Sign-n-Trade the Lakers have to Amnesty Gasol.
Note that if they did so and Howard was traded for Blake and Bledsoe(not happening BTW),the Lakers would be at just under $73mil w/Kobe,Blake,Nash,Artest,Blake,Hill,Bledsoe,Duhon's buy-out. Seven players and just $2-3mil to sign another 6. To those witha sharp eye,there's no back-up big,no reserve wings,nothing.
A Sign-n-Trade w/the Clips is about as close to impossible as there is in the NBA.
For all intents and purposes a Sign-n-Trade w/Howard is a non-starter.
To do one,the Lakers have to Amnesty Gasol. Doing so leaves Hill as the only guaranteed big on the roster.
The Lakers can't take back a major contract as that prevents filling out the rest of the roster.
Here's an example of what the Lakers could do:
Trade Duhon and Morris to Boston for Courtney Lee.(Boston is in clearing Cap mode,this saves money this season and clears Lee off Cap next season.)
Reach an understanding w/Rockets and Philly before July 1,then July 8:
Howard to Houston for Asik and Anderson.
Then Asik to Philly for Spencer Hawes and a future First.
The Philly First to Houston for Smith.(IF a Sign-n-Trade can involve three teams then just fold all this into one trade.)
LA is looking at Hawes,Hill,Artest,Lee,Nash,Kobe coming back whenever,Sacre,Smith,Anderson and Goudelock,Blake and Meeks as back-up wings. @ $72.5mil in salaries. Spend $2mil on a FA big and a min contract to get to 14 players.
This team is pretty bad and is about as good as the Lakers can hope for.
@pharmag
I know the rule is aimed at big market teams, but in essence a team over the apron could sign and trade a less expensive player for a more expensive player with out regards to the tax apron as long the players they receive weren't the recently sign player. that avenue must also be blocked for big market teams.......right?
I also got a statement from question #23 that reads
1.Starting in 2013-14, teams cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade transaction (see question number 89) if their team salary is above the apron at the conclusion of the trade.
the combination of the 2 statements lead me to the belief both teams must be under regardless if they receive the sign and trade player or not I posted all of question 23 on the previous 4th from bottom
Where this topic would get interesting is in the following situation. Once a team receives a sign&trade player, the tax apron becomes a hard cap for the team for that year. Therefore, if a team worked a sign& trade prior to resigning their own players, they would then limited in how far over they cap they can go.
I think it is just the way you are reading it. The way you are reading it however, makes the addendum moot. If a team over the apron can only receive players in a sign&trade transaction as long as they end up under the apron, then the second sentence of bullet point 4 covers that and addendum 1 is unnecessary.
However, based on the addition of an addendum as well as the grammar of the bullet point, I find it hard to interpret any other way but this (in laymen terms so to speak):
A team cannot receive a sign&trade player if the trade results in their salary exceeding the apron.
A team whose salary already exceeds the apron can receive a sign&trade player if, and only if, their salary after the trade is below the apron. Note: This does not inhibit a team over the apron from sending or receiving players in a sign&trade transaction as long as they are not receiving the sign&trade player, and if they are, they must meet the aforementioned requirements.
so that means both teams must be under the apron? right? if players are moving both ways?.....or am I missing something
I think I can solve this debate relatively easily. The question/answer RBF has posted several times comes from www.cbafaq.com which is written by Larry Coon. The particular question he has addressed is 89, the key points reading as follow (to refresh everyone's memory):
89. Can a free agent be signed and immediately traded?
There is a rule that allows teams to re-sign their own free agents for trading purposes, called the sign-and-trade rule. Under this rule the player is re-signed and immediately traded to another team. This is done by adding a clause to the contract stipulating that the contract is null and void if the trade to the specific team is not completed within 48 hours. To qualify for a sign-and-trade, all of the following must be true:
Now if you notice in the very important bullet point four, at the end of the first sentence there are superscript 1 and 2 numerics. Typically indicative of additional information provided, I checked the end of question 89 and found the following:
1 These teams are free to send players to other teams in sign-and-trade transactions, or to receive players in sign-and-trade transactions who weren't signed-and-traded themselves. Also, the restriction applies only to the sign-and-trade transaction itself -- teams are free to acquire players who had been signed-and-traded in earlier transactions.
2A different team salary definition is used for determining whether a team is above or below the apron -- see question number14for details. Starting in 2013-14 if a team acquires a player in a sign-and-trade, the apron ($4 million above the tax line) effectively becomes a hard cap for the remainder of that season.
Therefore, based on this addendum to bullet point four's language, team's over the apron CAN receive players in sign and trade transactions without regards to salaries as long as one of the player's is not the signed and traded player. Bullet point four specifically addresses the team receiving the sign-and-trade player and the fact that they must maintain salary below the apron after the trade. The second sentences clarifies that a team above the apron has the ability to receive a sign-and-trade player as long as they end up below the apron after the trade.
Hopefully, this resolves this argument.
Paul isn't leaving LA. His long lost twin Cliff would be devastated.
never say never
ok you tell me what you think these 2 statements mean
1.Starting in 2013-14, teams cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade transaction (see question number 89) if their team salary is above the apron at the conclusion of the trade.
2.Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2. A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below the apron
the combination of the 2statements paints a clear picture to me. at the end of a trade both teams must be under the luxury tax apron or the team that traded the newly signed player can't absorb any players at all
can you read?
@Dan G
let me try to put this issue to bed once and for all. the wording in larry coon statement is clear to me, but I offer additional proof of what I'm telling you. I have posted question 89 from larry coon's site a couple of times, but check out question #23
23. Other than financial penalties, are there restrictions on taxpaying teams?
In addition to the tax payments described in question number 21, taxpaying teams have the following restrictions. Note that most of these restrictions aren't triggered unless the team would be over the "apron" -- the point $4 million above the tax level -- following a signing or trade.
In addition, taxpaying teams do not receive a distribution from the leaguewide tax fund. However, they do receive a distribution from the escrow fund (see question number 22).
*check the 4th point now here is the wording in question 89 again
Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2. A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below the apron.
the combination of the 2 questions paints a clear picture to me. at the end of a trade both teams must be under the luxury tax apron or the team that traded the newly signed player can't absorb any players at all
I now know the rockets plan for the off season.......after reading the following article it became clear how they will proceed......first the article
1. the rockets will trade t-rob to clear cap space(easy one) :P
2. the rockets will sign cp3 out right at his max (18.7 mil)
3. the rockets will do a sign and trade with the lakers shipping lin and asik + assorted draft picks
the one point the article makes is the rule in the new CBA that allows a team to receive 5 extra mil in a trade when the amount being sent out is within certain parameters. if the rockets offer lin and asik to the lakers + a couple 1 rounders against allowing howard to leave for nothing.......I say they take that. I know there have been rumors that the lakers won't do sign and trades, but when reality sets in they'll come to the table.
To do a Sign-n-Trade w/Howard the Lakers HAVE to Amnesty Gasol. That's a huge pill to swallow and guarantees a pretty bad team.
If RBF's interpretation is correct the other Apron related feature is also in play. And that is in a Sign-n-Trade makes the Apron a can not exceed Hard Cap. It'll be somewhere around $76mil.
Just Kobe,Gasol,Nash,Blake,Hill and Duhon's buyout comes to $68mil,leaving just $8mil to fill out the minimum roster of 13 players. That's $8mil for 8 players.
Now if they Amnesty Gasol and lose Howard the team is gonna suck-and I strongly doubt the Lakers want to do that.
The "apron" rule only applies to S&T's for the teamreceiving the S&T'ed player, not the team sending the player out. So in this case, the team receiving the S&T'ed player is the Clippers, but they are not within that tax range.
I'm still quite confused on this rule but I am starting to believe you and 2016 have to be correct on this part of the rule since when I read articles about the potential Lakers/Clippers sign and trade, RBFs and my point of view is NEVER discussed. So I guess when Larry Coon writes:
Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the
"apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2.
A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the
trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below
the apron.
Even though in the first sentence Larry refers to the player signed (Dwight Howard) as "THE" player and in the second sentence he says "A" player he still is referring to the player signed (Howard) and not to Griffin. Looking back 2016 even said as much but I guess I didn't believe him.
Finally, when I used this Larry Coon question:
Jeff
Also can they realistically get under the apron to make a sign and trade?
Larry Coon
As for getting under the apron to do a sign-and-trade, right now they’re
at about $79.6 million, and they’d have to FINISH the sign and trade
below the apron (which I’m guessing will be around $77 million). If they
could do a sign-and-trade where they trade away a few million more than
they acquire, it could work.
In this answer Larry is not referring to New York signing and trading a player away (hell looking at New York's FAs they have absolutely no one worthy enough to sign and trade away). He is talking about New York receiving a player in a sign and trade.
So yeah 2016, my bad for all the grief. I still don't think it is fair in the slightest for teams to be able to sign and trade their FAs when they are over the apron, receive players in return and still be over the apron. RBF's and my point of view makes all the sense in the world, but for now, it seems to not be the CBAs point of view.
The "apron" rule only applies to S&T's for the teamreceiving the S&T'ed player, not the team sending the player out. So in this case, the team receiving the S&T'ed player is the Clippers, but they are not within that tax range.
incorrect the apron rule applies to both teams in the trade
89. Can a free agent be signed and immediately traded?There is a rule that allows teams to re-sign their own free agents for trading purposes, called the sign-and-trade rule. Under this rule the player is re-signed and immediately traded to another team. This is done by adding a clause to the contract stipulating that the contract is null and void if the trade to the specific team is not completed within 48 hours. To qualify for a sign-and-trade, all of the following must be true:
reading the 4th point shows both teams must be under the apron...............this rule just started this year in the CBA.....the above is from larry coon's website
Agreed.
I think people fall in love with potential, but after seeing Griffin hardly improve since his rookie year their opinions are coming down to earth.
If his ceiling is 20p-10r, I think that's a pretty good ceiling. In D'Antoni's system he'd be a 25-12 guy like Amar'e was in Phoenix.
I don't believe that even the mighty Lakers can chance not getting someone of Griffin's caliber and popularity in the event Howard wants to leave. We're all under the assumption that Lebron will automatically jump to LA when he opts out of his contract after next season. Many also believed that he couldn't turn down the bright lights of NYC when he became a FA three years ago. There are no guarantees; if Howard decides to walk, and Griffin is there to be had, you take Griffin and worry about 2014 when it comes.
(It's also funny how Griffin's stock has taken a hit these last two seasons since playing with Chris Paul; he went from Youtube legend to "Well, can he do anything ELSE but dunk?". If Dwight Howard has shown us anything since he's been in the league, it's that you can get by in the NBA based solely on the principle of being the biggest and most athletic guy on the court.)
If Gasol is amnestied (not an unrealistic scenario), the Rockets might just be able to sign him on the cheap as a FA. That's assuming he won't want to return to Memphis and play alongside his brother.
Regarding Gasol amnesty, he would go to the highest bidder ie: whoever is willing to spend the most cap space. So Houston would have first dibs over Memphis.
I don't believe that even the mighty Lakers can chance not getting someone of Griffin's caliber and popularity in the event Howard wants to leave.
Agreed.
It's also funny how Griffin's stock has taken a hit these last two seasons since playing with Chris Paul; he went from Youtube legend to "Well, can he do anything ELSE but dunk?".
I think people fall in love with potential, but after seeing Griffin hardly improve since his rookie year their opinions are coming down to earth.
New post: Dwight Howard Free Agency Watch: Part 5
By: rahat huqOn the one hand, if you take Griffin, at least you are guaranteed one star rather than getting nothing next summer. But on the other hand, you could've offered Lebron the chance to pick whoever he wants beside him, whether it be Carmelo or whomever. You can also completely suck and give yourself a better shot at Wiggins.
Assuming the LA teams hook up on a Howard deal, unless Kobe protests too much, you could easily see Morey trading Thomas Robinson somewhere and then absorbing Pau Gasol in a trade with the Lakers hoping to shed off more salary. We could give them Matt Maloney or someone, doesn't matter - Houston would be the only suitor on the market. A lot of you would bitch and moan but, as was evident late last year, Gasol still has a ton left in the tank and would drastically improve this team. It's a much better option than signing Josh Smith and ruining our chances next summer.
I don't believe that even the mighty Lakers can chance not getting someone of Griffin's caliber and popularity in the event Howard wants to leave. We're all under the assumption that Lebron will automatically jump to LA when he opts out of his contract after next season. Many also believed that he couldn't turn down the bright lights of NYC when he became a FA three years ago. There are no guarantees; if Howard decides to walk, and Griffin is there to be had, you take Griffin and worry about 2014 when it comes.
(It's also funny how Griffin's stock has taken a hit these last two seasons since playing with Chris Paul; he went from Youtube legend to "Well, can he do anything ELSE but dunk?". If Dwight Howard has shown us anything since he's been in the league, it's that you can get by in the NBA based solely on the principle of being the biggest and most athletic guy on the court.)
If Gasol is amnestied (not an unrealistic scenario), the Rockets might just be able to sign him on the cheap as a FA. That's assuming he won't want to return to Memphis and play alongside his brother.
I agree.............in addition I was crunching some salary cap numbers on the clippers and Lakers..............there are only 2 possible ways the Lakers and clipperscan do a sign and trade according to theCBA rules.................1) the Lakers must either amnesty Pau or Kobe so that they fall enough under the luxury tax apron to absorb Griffen's and Bledsoe's contracts or 2) a third team is involved that can absorb Pau without sending salary back. other than these 2 methods it's impossible to do a deal
The "apron" rule only applies to S&T's for the teamreceiving the S&T'ed player, not the team sending the player out. So in this case, the team receiving the S&T'ed player is the Clippers, but they are not within that tax range.
The LA Times (I'm a regular reader as a So. CA resident) has repeatedly reported that the Lakers are not really interested in a Griffin for Howard deal (they prefer the cap space for 2015). And I think that makes sense--the Lakers will want room to sign two max free agents in 2015, to go with Kobe, Nash, a high draft choice, and whatever else they could sign.
I agree.............in addition I was crunching some salary cap numbers on the clippers and Lakers..............there are only 2 possible ways the Lakers and clipperscan do a sign and trade according to theCBA rules.................1) the Lakers must either amnesty Pau or Kobe so that they fall enough under the luxury tax apron to absorb Griffen's and Bledsoe's contracts or 2) a third team is involved that can absorb Pau without sending salary back. other than these 2 methods it's impossible to do a deal
The LA Times (I'm a regular reader as a So. CA resident) has repeatedly reported that the Lakers are not really interested in a Griffin for Howard deal (they prefer the cap space for 2015). And I think that makes sense--the Lakers will want room to sign two max free agents in 2015, to go with Kobe, Nash, a high draft choice, and whatever else they could sign.
Interesting analysis Rahat. I agree with many of your points. I think a Boston Clippers deal will go thru.
Not sure about LAL though. If I was Kupchak I would deal Howard for Griffin, and deal Gasol for draft picks. At the end of the year you could flip Griffin for a top draft pick or keep him.
Howard is easy, I think they do it, if it means they get Griffin, that's an easy sell. But most teams have a hard time "giving away" good older players that help them win now, like Gasol, in lieu of bottoming out. LAL strikes me as one of those teams. Also, I could see a team like Indiana making a bid on Gasol.
@Rahat
I disagree........I think we are in the driver's seat
At the moment of writing, and since my last installment, the hottest news has been that of a strong-armed push by the strong-headed Chris Paul to engineer a string of moves that would propel, in my opinion, the LA Clippers to the head of the class in the Western Conference. The Clippers and Celtics are haggling, but in the end, LA's other team could have a roster featuring Paul, Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, Paul Pierce, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Garnett. And they'd actually for the first time in the Paul era have a real coach.
While LA doesn't want to have to take back Terry and Lee because of the amounts those two are still owed, one must admit that on-court, with those players' pedigree and experience, the effect would be a net positive, especially come postseason time. And of course swapping out Jordan and Griffin for Garnett and Howard takes Lob City from flash to actual substance.
While reports are that some in LA's front office have balked at the idea of trading Griffin, I think the Clippers would be fools to not make that deal. But I digress. Let's examine where things now stand:
This Doc Rivers-Garnett deal is going to get done, sooner or later - the two sides are just posturing. There's absolutely no reason for Boston to not agree to whatever the two sides settle on because they essentially have no leverage. (One wonders how they've even managed to leverage this situation in the first place.) The Celtics can't bring back Doc after this nor would they event want to (and have to pay him $7million during a rebuilding year); same goes for Garnett. Once this thing gets done and Doc/Garnett/Pierce land in LA, I think that effectively cements CP3's return to the Clippers, regardless of whether or not the Clippers can get Howard. (Or does it?)
[sidenote: Those moves give Paul one hell of a one year window. And I'm sure he loves LA. But orchestrating a Howard-Harden-Paul trio in Houston gives him the best long term chance.>
But let's just assume Paul is locked in in LA. That takes Atlanta out of the running for Howard because he's obviously not going to want to go there alone now, without Paul. So that brings us back to Houston, staying with the Lakers, and going to the Clippers.
In some weird way, in my personal opinion, I almost feel like the Clippers option serves to eliminate the Lakers as a plausible choice for Howard. Before, it was seemingly between Houston and the Lakers: the "best", fun choice vs. guilt, loyalty, and whatever other platitudes you can muster up. But now there's another serious fun choice in the Clippers and when you have two choices that good that you're weighing between, I would just think it'd be too depressing to pass up on both and stay somewhere where you have no chance to win for at least another year. So I think if he can't get to the Clippers, he comes to Houston.
I think if Dwight had his way, today, he'd want to be a Clipper. He stays in Hollywood with the best point guard on the planet. But the debate is whether the two cross-town rivals would work together on a deal. I already discussed the Clippers' side but if you're the Lakers, do you prefer Blake and the chance at one other star in '14 or a completely clean slate? What is a bird in hand really worth? I personally just can't decide which way I'd lean. On the one hand, if you take Griffin, at least you are guaranteed one star rather than getting nothing next summer. But on the other hand, you could've offered Lebron the chance to pick whoever he wants beside him, whether it be Carmelo or whomever. You can also completely suck and give yourself a better shot at Wiggins.
[sidenote 2: I still think anyone thinking the Lakers would be willing to take Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin in a S&T is completely kidding themselves. The Lakers are not only going to sabotage their '14 plans but also pay luxury tax next year for a mediocre team? Right.>
I think the big irony in all of these depressing developments regarding Dwight, when it seemed like the odds of him coming to Houston were favorable, is that if all of this somehow happens, the odds of the Rockets acquiring Pau Gasol shoot up. Yes, we've come full circle.
Assuming the LA teams hook up on a Howard deal, unless Kobe protests too much, you could easily see Morey trading Thomas Robinson somewhere and then absorbing Pau Gasol in a trade with the Lakers hoping to shed off more salary. We could give them Matt Maloney or someone, doesn't matter - Houston would be the only suitor on the market. A lot of you would bitch and moan but, as was evident late last year, Gasol still has a ton left in the tank and would drastically improve this team. It's a much better option than signing Josh Smith and ruining our chances next summer.
For now though, there's no reason to think that Houston's chances for Dwight still aren't strong. It's only June 17th and even he probably hasn't yet made his mind up. All we have are reports from parties with a lot at stake.
there have been quite a few articles written and rumors floated this past week in regards to Howard and cp3. I have been watching this game a while as most of you know. sometimes I feel I can read between the lines because I know the nature of how the relationships between players, agents and teams unfold behind the scenes. based on what I have seen in the last week leads me to believe Houston has both LA organizationsgoing sleepless at night. I have seen a story on Houston's quest to chase both Howard and cp3. I have seen a story on Howard and cp3 want to play together. I have seen a story on the clipper trying to acquire KG and Doc Rivers. I have seen a story on the clippers wanting to make a trade with the Lakers for Howard.among all the clutter let me tell you what I think I see
1. I think Houston is the front runner for Howard. the Lakers know it and the clippers do too
2. I think either Howard and cp3 had a talk or their agents. mean while Houston was looking for deals to clear room for Howard.
3. Howard and cp3 liked the idea of playing together
4. Houston while checking on deals for t-rob discovered there are deals that can move other pieces as well.
5. Howard past that on to Harden or Parsons to check with the rockets and see if it could be done. remember that money save by Howard in the Forbe's report.......cp3 can get it too.
6. Feigan is a rocket's puppet. the rockets gave him the story that they would pursue both equally after having sent message back though the grapevine. then alexander does article on willingness to pay tax
7. the clippers got wind of this. they knew the rockets would pursuecp3 all along, but thought the rockets would chill after having gotten Howard thereby leaving them in even a stronger position to retain cp3.
8. the clippers floated their own unification plan and began to search for a deal they thought would make their plan look better than the rockets.
9. the Lakers (as much as it would gross them out to deal with the clippers)have left the door cracked in case they are forced to deal rather than let Howard walk for nothing.
10. the clippers are working round the clock to put together a offer that can compete with Houston.
I believe Houston now has a real chance to draw both Howard and cp3. they have the best plan because of Harden and Parsons. going to be interesting to see how the chips fall..............however now I wouldn't be surprised to see a new powerhouse arise.
And Dwight Howard is Mr. Offensive Versatility?
Well he does have some post moves but we obviously don't want Howard for his offensive prowess. We are getting him for his defense and what offense he does have is just icing on the cake.
What would be stupid is taking the albatross contract that is attached to Blake "If it ain't a dunk I don't score" Griffen. Rather have zero contracts next summer then that no talent all athlete player.
check this out
http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterockets/2013/06/rockets-look-to-spend-big-in-free-agency/
I can feel it in me bones...........something big is going to happen :rolleyes:
Ben DuBose @BenDuBose1h
YES! RT @WojYahooNBA Lakers have fully resisted Clippers overtures on a sign-and-trade for Dwight Howard. "They will never do it."
My first thoughts to this tweet are:
Lakers must be stupid to rather lose Dwight for nothing
Lakers must think Dwight will stay if they refuse to S&T
Lakers are stupid because Dwight is coming to Houston! I hope.. lol
YES! RT @WojYahooNBA Lakers have fully resisted Clippers overtures on a sign-and-trade for Dwight Howard. "They will never do it."
My first thoughts to this tweet are:
Lakers must be stupid to rather lose Dwight for nothing
Lakers must think Dwight will stay if they refuse to S&T
Lakers are stupid because Dwight is coming to Houston! I hope.. lol
did you read the post I left?................howard is the last thing on their minds right now........I usually don't trust every rumor out, but wojnarowski is usually spot on
YES! RT @WojYahooNBA Lakers have fully resisted Clippers overtures on a sign-and-trade for Dwight Howard. "They will never do it."
My first thoughts to this tweet are:
Lakers must be stupid to rather lose Dwight for nothing
Lakers must think Dwight will stay if they refuse to S&T
Lakers are stupid because Dwight is coming to Houston! I hope.. lol
here is a better barometer of how the clippers feel right now
http://tracking.si.com/2013/06/15/clippers-celtics-trade-kevin-garnett-paul-pierce/?sct=uk_t2_a3
I still don't see how the deal will work
Among scenarios Clips considering, sources say, is offer of Blake Griffin & Bledsoe in sign-and-trade pitch Lakers for Dwight after July
My guess: Dwight's agent pushing for S&T with Clippers, using HOU as leverage to pressure Lakers. But Dwight's interest in HOU is genuine
That is exactly correct. I have always known the Rockets didn't need to pursue a sign and trade with the Lakers to get D12. I think tonight I was just going deeper into the possibilities in case there might be a reason that, for instance a 3-way sign and trade, would be beneficial for the Rockets while at the same time obtaining D12. I'm pretty much convinced after a few back and forths with you that is not likely. Certainly not necessary, never was. Again assuming the Rockets make the final moves by June 30 to have the capability of offering D12 the max ($20.5 million is what other contributors have stated). Then the Rockets are in perfect positionwithout havingto rely on some last minute crazy trade after July 1 to get to that point. I just would like for them to figure out how to do so without having to trade away T Robinson.
I agree with this. I really hate the idea of trading away anyone who could become alot more valuable a year or two later, I would rather trade a guy who is closer to his ceiling/peak value.
Exactly..atleast we agree on some things ..the added value of rest for Howard, a great center in the game for all 48 and insurance in case he gets injured more then makes up for the gap on between a Milsap and Tjones in my opinion..and for real he could be better the Milsap at the end I the year..I already love his rebounds and effort on def..a lil help on shots and rotation and this dude could be a beast..the we pay 1 mil for..and h would know his place..he wouldn't fight for shots against harden Lin Howard and parsons..how many scorers do we need on the team lol..I'm falling in love with the idea for singing Dwight straight up moving Trob and White..and just goin to war with that team..Lin and Tjones play a lil better hen they did last year we have a championship team with everyone playing their roles..not that it would be easy to say no to Chris Paul..losing both Lin and Asik and other players almost doesn't make it worth it..we will see..I'm just getting more an more on board with keeping Lin and Asik and keeping Tjones and Dmo at Pf
I think the only thing we really disagree on is what to do with Lin, but I respect your opinion on that otherwise I agree with you statement above
Exactly..atleast we agree on some things 😜..the added value of rest for Howard, a great center in the game for all 48 and insurance in case he gets injured more then makes up for the gap on between a Milsap and Tjones in my opinion..and for real he could be better the Milsap at the end I the year..I already love his rebounds and effort on def..a lil help on shots and rotation and this dude could be a beast..the we pay 1 mil for..and h would know his place..he wouldn't fight for shots against harden Lin Howard and parsons..how many scorers do we need on the team lol..I'm falling in love with the idea for singing Dwight straight up moving Trob and White..and just goin to war with that team..Lin and Tjones play a lil better hen they did last year we have a championship team with everyone playing their roles..not that it would be easy to say no to Chris Paul..losing both Lin and Asik and other players almost doesn't make it worth it..we will see..I'm just getting more an more on board with keeping Lin and Asik and keeping Tjones and Dmo at Pf
if we trade asik for another player who doesn't overlap as you put it exactly where is he going to play. you probably going to say PF, but I argue why when we already have a stable of PFs that we need to finish developing and who may very well exceed our need in that position at a much more reasonable cost plus when we do play teams with 2 bigs asik give us the chance to match up to these teams better
Howard might demand a sign and trade in order to come to the Rockets so he can adjust the roster. Right now we are at the cap limit by signing Howard. I know he has said he wants to play with Asik, but that doesn't seem to make much sense. If he realizes that by coming to Houston, we would have no wiggle room on the roster, he might demand we trade out some contracts to have the room to sign players more "complementary" to his play style.
@rocketrick
this is another factor in favor of the rockets, mavs and Atlanta. the lakers even without howardare by most estimateslock in for78 mil in salary on the books. the new CBA says that in order for a team that is over the luxury tax by more than 4 mil (the tax line is roughly 71 mil) can't do a sign and trade unless by the end of the trade they are left under the 4mil dollar apron. which means the lakers would either have to amnesty somebody off their current roster or make a trade that moves D-12 and other pieces to another team who could absorb more salary, but still themselves be left under the 4 mil dollar apron. for any team that as of today is over the cap that's almost impossible to pull off. in addition Atlanta has a 6% state income tax so howard would make less there than in texas. the only 3 teams who really have a chance to sign howard are LA, Houston and Dallas. of the 3 right now.............we are looking pretty dam good from where I see.
@rocketrick
what makes the rocket pursuit of howard so lethal for the lakers is the rockets don't need the lakers in order to sign howard. if he leaves the lakers get nothing. Atlanta and dallas also have the cap room with minor changes so the lakers are in a full court press because they stand to lose one of their top assets for nothing. teams like golden state and other do need the lakers for sign and trade because they are over the cap themselves. if the lakers were assured of getting something for howard you would not see the panic that they are displaying. they were thought to hold a money advantage, but now even that looks like it has rolled to Houston's favor. in other words the laker are up the creek without a paddle
That is exactly correct. I have always known the Rockets didn't need to pursue a sign and trade with the Lakers to get D12. I think tonight I was just going deeper into the possibilities in case there might be a reason that, for instance a 3-way sign and trade, would be beneficial for the Rockets while at the same time obtaining D12. I'm pretty much convinced after a few back and forths with you that is not likely. Certainly not necessary, never was. Again assuming the Rockets make the final moves by June 30 to have the capability of offering D12 the max ($20.5 million is what other contributors have stated). Then the Rockets are in perfect positionwithout havingto rely on some last minute crazy trade after July 1 to get to that point. I just would like for them to figure out how to do so without having to trade away T Robinson.
if D-12 leaves the lakers he can't get a 5 year deal. the new CBA changed that rule. D-12 has nothing to gain by the rockets doing a sign and trade with the lakers. the rockets are only 1 mil or so from having the necessary room if they move t-rob. that's why he has been talked about as a possible target. if the rockets do trade it won't be the lakers unless they are also getting cp3 which I doubt. they simply have no reason to help the lakers
Yep, I forgot about that part of the CBA. You are correct, D12 can only get a 4 year deal with any other team than the Lakers.
It's not that D12 would gain anything with a sign and trade involving, in my scenario, 3 teams. Rather I was thinking out loud this would give the Lakers an opportunity to receive something rather than nothing at allwere D12 to move on to another team. So my supposition of the possibility of a 3-team sign and trade seems quite unlikely unless some other GM on some other NBA team can figure out a way to accomplish a win/win to obtain D12 and give the Lakers something back (lottery picks). Not going to happen since D12 wants to win, not rebuild.
Your prior statement that the Rockets could obtain more value by trading other players after July 1 (for instance, I support trading Asik in the event D12 joins the Rockets, you support trading Lin under pretty much any circumstance) completely separate from the possible free agent signing of D12 sure seems the more likely route the Rockets will go this summer. And of course, who knows, perhaps the Rockets will stand pat the best they can after July 1 other than the signing of D12 and whatever other roster moves are necessary to get to at least the NBA minimum of 12. I'm quite certain the Rockets will always strive for a roster of 15 though,especially now that they control the RGV Vipers D-League team and have the opportunity to develop more depth that way.
@rocketrick
what makes the rocket pursuit of howard so lethal for the lakers is the rockets don't need the lakers in order to sign howard. if he leaves the lakers get nothing. Atlanta and dallas also have the cap room with minor changes so the lakers are in a full court press because they stand to lose one of their top assets for nothing. teams like golden state and other do need the lakers for sign and trade because they are over the cap themselves. if the lakers were assured of getting something for howard you would not see the panic that they are displaying. they were thought to hold a money advantage, but now even that looks like it has rolled to Houston's favor. in other words the laker are up the creek without a paddle
I'm actually thinking AFTER the Rockets already have the necessary cap space. This way, D12 gets his full Max 5-year contract. The Lakers get something instead of nothing at all. Ionly suggested Asik just because I've seen that elsewhere a couple other times mentioned by other posters that the Blazers could be interested in Asik and they do have a bevy of trade picks. Since the Lakers are way over the apron, they can't receive any players (not even Royce White who I would argue is NOT a player) but can receivedraft picks.
So basically, as always just thinking out aloud again.
Yes, you are correct, the Rockets might be able to trade some pieces after July 1 and receive more value back rather than try and piece together a very complicated 3-way sign and trade for D12.
At least I think you and I now agree the possibility of a 3-way sign and trade for D12 exists. Whereas before, everyone has been focused on the fact the Lakers are screwed and can't do a sign and trade with anyone should D12 choose to leave LA.
Which brings up my last thought, which is not a particularly good thought, that if the Rockets might work out a 3-way sign and trade for D12, might not some other team figure out a way to make that happen that is more attractive somehow for the Lakers while also more importantly being D12's final choice of destination.
if D-12 leaves the lakers he can't get a 5 year deal. the new CBA changed that rule. D-12 has nothing to gain by the rockets doing a sign and trade with the lakers. the rockets are only 1 mil or so from having the necessary room if they move t-rob. that's why he has been talked about as a possible target. if the rockets do trade it won't be the lakers unless they are also getting cp3 which I doubt. they simply have no reason to help the lakers
I doubt the rockets do a sign and trade with the lakers.
1. the rockets lack very little room to get to the necessary room for D-12 so giving the lakers assets in trade isn't necessary
2. even if they are going to trade some pieces of the team they can trade them to someone else for more assetsclear the cap room and then sign howard outright
I'm actually thinking AFTER the Rockets already have the necessary cap space. This way, D12 gets his full Max 5-year contract. The Lakers get something instead of nothing at all. Ionly suggested Asik just because I've seen that elsewhere a couple other times mentioned by other posters that the Blazers could be interested in Asik and they do have a bevy of trade picks. Since the Lakers are way over the apron, they can't receive any players (not even Royce White who I would argue is NOT a player) but can receivedraft picks.
So basically, as always just thinking out aloud again.
Yes, you are correct, the Rockets might be able to trade some pieces after July 1 and receive more value back rather than try and piece together a very complicated 3-way sign and trade for D12.
At least I think you and I now agree the possibility of a 3-way sign and trade for D12 exists. Whereas before, everyone has been focused on the fact the Lakers are screwed and can't do a sign and trade with anyone should D12 choose to leave LA.
Which brings up my last thought, which is not a particularly good thought, that if the Rockets might work out a 3-way sign and trade for D12, might not some other team figure out a way to make that happen that is more attractive somehow for the Lakers while also more importantly being D12's final choice of destination.
This seems like a pretty far problem down the road to be worrying about now, I think you'd agree that IF the team feels that they are comfortable with playing both , this would be very low on their list of worries no? like I said, I feel that if they get Howard, they'll likely run with this group for 2 year, at that point there are enough contracts up anyway that it's a good time to really decide where they're heading.
Quite frankly 2 years later a lot of things would probably sort itself out anyway, where Lin is at... how those guys play together... where Parsons at ... where the rest of the kids are at etc... and it's also when your favorite player Mr. Love may opt out of his contract ;)
It's important to think long term if you don't want to end up like the Nets. 2 years isn't really that far to think ahead anyway.
Yes, I agree that IF Asik and Howard turn out to be the next Robinson and Duncan then Asik will stay. But this is reality, not wonderland. It's completely understandable if you want to wait and see if these wonderland fantasies come true, afterall, we're only human and we never believe anything we don't see (unless it's an invisible man in the sky):
Thanks for that, as I've stated before all of us are Rockets fans and want only the best for the Rockets. We just can't always agree the best way to get there!
In regards to a 3-team trade in my prior discussion, I was just laying it out that since it is quite clear that the LA Lakers cannot do a sign and trade with Houston should D12 choose to sign with the Rockets, how about considering another approach by bringing in a 3rd team. Someone like a Portland that has a number of draft picks, which the Lakers could receive in a sign and trade. One possibility would be that the Lakers sign and trade D12 to Houston, Houston trades Asik and other pieces to be named to the Lakers and Blazers, and the Blazers trade some of their draft picks to the Lakers possibly along with a draft pick from the Rockets and again possibly some other pieces. Probably complicated overall. Yet, a way that a sign and trade could possibly be done with LA Lakers for D12 so this means it's not totally impossible to come up with a way to make a sign and trade with the Lakers for D12 work.
I doubt this is the route anyone wants to go and is probably pretty unlikely as it is certainly complicated.
It is best instead that the Rockets be positioned with their roster by June 30 in order to have the capability of offering D12 the max. Some have stated elsewhere that would be in the range of $20.5 million for 2013-14 season. Instead of (1) hoping and expecting D12 will accept less and (2) having to rely at the last minute on a trade with somebody else to create additional needed cap space after June 30.
I doubt the rockets do a sign and trade with the lakers.
1. the rockets lack very little room to get to the necessary room for D-12 so giving the lakers assets in trade isn't necessary
2. even if they are going to trade some pieces of the team they can trade them to someone else for more assetsclear the cap room and then sign howard outright
right now I would take a astro's ticket for Royce :lol:it is possible the rockets do use the stretchprovision on Royce. I was only showing that it is possible to move the contract. as for g-smith we simply have a different view of him. I respect your view..... I just don't agree with it. as for 3-team trade......what are you talking about? I never mentioned a 3-team trade. the rockets don't need all of that.
sorry if I offended you by saying I thought you said very little. I was gearing up for world war 3 and only got a scud missle :lol: maybe my expectation was to high. it appears we agree on major portions of this stuff anyway
right now I would take a astro's ticket for Royce :lol:it is possible the rockets do use the stretchprovision on Royce. I was only showing that it is possible to move the contract. as for g-smith we simply have a different view of him. I respect your view..... I just don't agree with it. as for 3-team trade......what are you talking about? I never mentioned a 3-team trade. the rockets don't need all of that.
sorry if I offended you by saying I thought you said very little. I was gearing up for world war 3 and only got a scud missle :lol: maybe my expectation was to high. it appears we agree on major portions of this stuff anyway
Thanks for that, as I've stated before all of us are Rockets fans and want only the best for the Rockets. We just can't always agree the best way to get there!
In regards to a 3-team trade in my prior discussion, I was just laying it out that since it is quite clear that the LA Lakers cannot do a sign and trade with Houston should D12 choose to sign with the Rockets, how about considering another approach by bringing in a 3rd team. Someone like a Portland that has a number of draft picks, which the Lakers could receive in a sign and trade. One possibility would be that the Lakers sign and trade D12 to Houston, Houston trades Asik and other pieces to be named to the Lakers and Blazers, and the Blazers trade some of their draft picks to the Lakers possibly along with a draft pick from the Rockets and again possibly some other pieces. Probably complicated overall. Yet, a way that a sign and trade could possibly be done with LA Lakers for D12 so this means it's not totally impossible to come up with a way to make a sign and trade with the Lakers for D12 work.
I doubt this is the route anyone wants to go and is probably pretty unlikely as it is certainly complicated.
It is best instead that the Rockets be positioned with their roster by June 30 in order to have the capability of offering D12 the max. Some have stated elsewhere that would be in the range of $20.5 million for 2013-14 season. Instead of (1) hoping and expecting D12 will accept less and (2) having to rely at the last minute on a trade with somebody else to create additional needed cap space after June 30.
Paying D12, Asik and Harden will cost the Rockets 85% of their cap. Then there's Lin's contract. And oh yeah, I think the Rockets might need a few more players to reach the minimum 12 requirement by the NBA.
Some kid named Chandler Parsons is about to get paid, huge bucks, most likely before the start of the 2014-2015 season, in order to prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent.
Unless it's OK to gamble and lose Chander Parsons for nothing the year after.
Parsons is going to be a restricted free agent no matter what, the Rockets can resign hims with no regard to the cap anyway. those aren't really the issue, the cap issue is that you can't bring in additional FAs afterward exception through exceptions and minimums.
I'd generally point out that Miami tied 90% of their cap into 3 player. and more likely going to be 95-97% next year.
Whatever man...........
Anyway, points of disagreement are: If you actually get something right and Royce White is indeed traded, then that will be the greatest move Morey has ever engineered. However, the more likely outcome as discussed in other threads is that Royce White will simply be waived and the stretch provision used. Again, if any NBA team gives us anything at all, maybe a ballboy or a floor sweeper, for Royce White, that would be a huge win.
Claiming Greg Smith would be a useful PF (I say possibly backup C more likely) then that means we have 2 backup PF's assuming Asik also remains on the roster, neither of whom can hit an outside shot with any consistency whatsoever at this point in their careers. Playing alongside another power player, D12, at C, who also cannot hit an outside shot with any consistency (not that we should want him taking outsideshots to begin with). Oh yeah, makes total sense to me.
I don't recall any conversation about a 3-team sign and trade revolving around D12. So again, whatever, I guess this doesn't matter. Not worth considering I guess...I just threw it out there, stupid me, I should have known better..........like you said, I said absolutely nothing
right now I would take a astro's ticket for Royce :lol:it is possible the rockets do use the stretchprovision on Royce. I was only showing that it is possible to move the contract. as for g-smith we simply have a different view of him. I respect your view..... I just don't agree with it. as for 3-team trade......what are you talking about? I never mentioned a 3-team trade. the rockets don't need all of that.
sorry if I offended you by saying I thought you said very little. I was gearing up for world war 3 and only got a scud missle :lol: maybe my expectation was to high. it appears we agree on major portions of this stuff anyway
This seems like a pretty far problem down the road to be worrying about now, I think you'd agree that IF the team feels that they are comfortable with playing both , this would be very low on their list of worries no? like I said, I feel that if they get Howard, they'll likely run with this group for 2 year, at that point there are enough contracts up anyway that it's a good time to really decide where they're heading.
Paying D12, Asik and Harden will cost the Rockets 85% of their cap. Then there's Lin's contract. And oh yeah, I think the Rockets might need a few more players to reach the minimum 12 requirement by the NBA.
Some kid named Chandler Parsons is about to get paid, huge bucks, most likely before the start of the 2014-2015 season, in order to prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent.
Unless it's OK to gamble and lose Chander Parsons for nothing the year after.
I still don't think Asik will play many minutes in the playoffs, but no point going back and forth with that so I'll move on to another concern:
I don't see Asik re-signing with us in 2015 if he's going to be playing back-up when he could be a starter somewhere else for more money.
@rocketrick
you sure took a lot of room to say basically very little :unsure:
1.crunching the number provides a basis for discussion. I'm sure you checked them......are they wrong? I didn't see you mention that
2.I'm sure the rockets already have their off season plan mapped out. what we are discussing is what they might do.
3. OH! my god .....we agree on something? let me double check that.....yup it's official :lol:
4. the rockets have 2 mil they can still use in a trade this year. Royce has 1.7 guaranteed still left on his contract before he can be waived. the rockets could tie him to another deal and send the money to paid his contract out with him thus removing him total from the cap.........it's called renting cap space. much like we got douglas last year. so to say it can't be done when even joe Johnson contract has been moved.........looks like you don't have a point here to me
5.g-smith is best at PF. if the rockets want to maximize his potential that's where he will get the vast majority of his minutes. you know he was our starting PF for awhile? I believe t-jones will pass him this year, but he is valuable to keep around especially for what he makes.
6.I think the rockets have many options on the table when it comes to how they intend to clear cap space, not just robinson........guessing which they will take is the hard part
7. if the rockets do a trade before FA its more than likely it's small and done just to clear the necessary room for D-12. however once FA open depending on what commitments the rockets get a larger trade may be in the works. I agree they won't cast off major parts without major commitments.
8. we agree again! well what da ya no
9. same answer as #7
10. the salary cap won't be known officially until the NBA and NBAPA lawyers crunch the numbers. probably around July 6th and the NBA will resume business on July 10. ...July 1st is the day FA opens, but the players still can't be officially signed until July 10
Whatever man...........
Anyway, points of disagreement are: If you actually get something right and Royce White is indeed traded, then that will be the greatest move Morey has ever engineered. However, the more likely outcome as discussed in other threads is that Royce White will simply be waived and the stretch provision used. Again, if any NBA team gives us anything at all, maybe a ballboy or a floor sweeper, for Royce White, that would be a huge win.
Claiming Greg Smith would be a useful PF (I say possibly backup C more likely) then that means we have 2 backup PF's assuming Asik also remains on the roster, neither of whom can hit an outside shot with any consistency whatsoever at this point in their careers. Playing alongside another power player, D12, at C, who also cannot hit an outside shot with any consistency (not that we should want him taking outsideshots to begin with). Oh yeah, makes total sense to me.
I don't recall any conversation about a 3-team sign and trade revolving around D12. So again, whatever, I guess this doesn't matter. Not worth considering I guess...I just threw it out there, stupid me, I should have known better..........like you said, I said absolutely nothing
no it's more like 7-10 minutes together, with Dwight playing 30-33, Dwight has averaged 38 once in his career, his average is 36 and last year was lower. 33 min would be well in line with what he did last year.
7-10 min together, split into maybe 2 seperate points of the game, is like 3-5 minutes per, there's no way you can argue that you can't even hide a non-shooter for 5 minutes.
gotta agree with this
I still don't think Asik will play many minutes in the playoffs, but no point going back and forth with that so I'll move on to another concern:
I don't see Asik re-signing with us in 2015 if he's going to be playing back-up when he could be a starter somewhere else for more money.
There is no way Asik is playing 25 minutes behind Dwight, that leaves only 23 minutes for Dwight. Asik is likely get more around 10 minutes which leaves Dwight with 38. You must be working on the premise Asik will get 15 minutes at PF which I think is unlikely but that discussion has been beaten to death.
no it's more like 7-10 minutes together, with Dwight playing 30-33, Dwight has averaged 38 once in his career, his average is 36 and last year was lower. 33 min would be well in line with what he did last year.
7-10 min together, split into maybe 2 seperate points of the game, is like 3-5 minutes per, there's no way you can argue that you can't even hide a non-shooter for 5 minutes.
@rocketrick
you sure took a lot of room to say basically very little :unsure:
1.crunching the number provides a basis for discussion. I'm sure you checked them......are they wrong? I didn't see you mention that
2.I'm sure the rockets already have their off season plan mapped out. what we are discussing is what they might do.
3. OH! my god .....we agree on something? let me double check that.....yup it's official :lol:
4. the rockets have 2 mil they can still use in a trade this year. Royce has 1.7 guaranteed still left on his contract before he can be waived. the rockets could tie him to another deal and send the money to paid his contract out with him thus removing him total from the cap.........it's called renting cap space. much like we got douglas last year. so to say it can't be done when even joe Johnson contract has been moved.........looks like you don't have a point here to me
5.g-smith is best at PF. if the rockets want to maximize his potential that's where he will get the vast majority of his minutes. you know he was our starting PF for awhile? I believe t-jones will pass him this year, but he is valuable to keep around especially for what he makes.
6.I think the rockets have many options on the table when it comes to how they intend to clear cap space, not just robinson........guessing which they will take is the hard part
7. if the rockets do a trade before FA its more than likely it's small and done just to clear the necessary room for D-12. however once FA open depending on what commitments the rockets get a larger trade may be in the works. I agree they won't cast off major parts without major commitments.
8. we agree again! well what da ya no
9. same answer as #7
10. the salary cap won't be known officially until the NBA and NBAPA lawyers crunch the numbers. probably around July 6th and the NBA will resume business on July 10. ...July 1st is the day FA opens, but the players still can't be officially signed until July 10
I see Dwight playing 38+ minutes in the playoffs. If we want to limit his minutes in the regular season, we can still do that with Furkan Aldemir/Terrence Jones playing behind him.
I think the other side's argument has been that D12 plays about 30 minutes a game which seems low to me. Assuming he plays the first 8-9 minutes of the first quarter, sits then returns with about 9 minutes left before half-time and ditto for the second half would put him more in line for 34-35 minutes minimum per game. Would also depend on foul trouble, unforeseen injuries, game to game matchups, is the current game competitive or a blow out, etc. So yes, over the full season, perhaps D12 would average closer to 32 minutes per game but that would also likely mean in some cases that Asik is not automatically picking up the difference. And for sure there would be competitive games requiring Howard play more than 34-35 minutes, too.
And true, there are going to be certain occasions where the Rockets could trot out a twin towers of sorts with Asik and D12. It's just that neither is going to be able to stretch the floor in my opinion. However, if the Rockets are ahead and are looking for defensive stops, sure, why not have Asik and D12 on the floor together.
However, in the overall scheme of things and knowing the salary cap limitations, I would instead prefer the Rockets spread the wealth and create more offensive flexibility and efficiency by using Asik's salary slot more effectively. Otherwise, the Rockets have something like 85% of their salary cap tied up between just D12, Harden and Asik.
The NBA of the 2010's simply doesn't have the quality big men the league once had which is why there is many more stretch 4's in today's game vs. the game of the more recent and long ago past. That fact has to be considered when putting together a roster of 15 players with a salary cap (and even taking into consideration some luxury tax at some point).
I love Asik and will keep repeating that as many times as possible so that everyone understands I do not advocate to trade Asik no matter what. I am only advocating doing so in the event D12 joins the Rockets.
There is no way Asik is playing 25 minutes behind Dwight, that leaves only 23 minutes for Dwight. Asik is likely get more around 10 minutes which leaves Dwight with 38. You must be working on the premise Asik will get 15 minutes at PF which I think is unlikely but that discussion has been beaten to death.
I'm going to explore your win estimation for discussions sake.
Morey said that we should improve 4-5 wins next year with the same squad, but the addition of an elite player via FA could add another 10 wins on top of that. So if we get Dwight we should be nearing that 60 win range where we're finally true contenders again (barring major injuries), but that's only if there's no overlap which there is. We can't just add Dwight's 10 wins because the wins Dwight and Asik create overlap each other--they only partially stack.
So if Dwight gives us 10 wins, we have to subtract about 70% of the wins Asik gives us because his playing time will be cut by about 70%. Lets just say the average NBA player is worth 5 wins, and Asik is worth 6 wins. 70% of those 6 wins is roughly 4 wins which we substitute from Dwight's 10 leaving us with only a 6 win improvement on top of the 4-5 wins we improve with the same squad. So your estimate of us being a lower to mid 50 win team sounds pretty accurate... IF we don't trade Asik.
What if we could trade Asik for a player who creates the same amount of wins but gets more playing time? Then there won't be an overlap, and we can get those 4 wins that we had to subtract. This should indeed push us into that 60 win range where we're finally true contenders again (barring major injuries). Instead of aiming for the 2015 season, we could be aiming for the 2014 season making my nickname look very silly.
There is some problem to your assumption, Howard's playing time probably won't increase much without Asik, so your not going from a 6 win Dwight to a 10 win Dwight by trading Asik to begin with.
If they have some overlap minutes, that means Asik is taking playing time away from the PF anyway, which need to be taken into account.
The other end is also true, Millsap and Josh Smith is something like a 7 win player by themselves, but if you just give their playing time to a T-Jones it's probably a 2-3 win loss, if some of those time goes to Asik, it's more like a 1-2 win loss on that end.
My argument is generally that Asik playing 25 min as the backup C is probably more than a 1-2 win improvement over whoever else we play at backup C. I really like Greg Smith, but he's not really a guy that can hold down center against any sort of competent offensive lineup. at worst it's about close to a wash, except that there is a chance that T-Jones or Dmo improve to the point where they outweight that, so the ceiling is about the same next year and potentially higher going forward, but the FLOOR is much higher, in the trade assumption, if Howard gets hurt, we probably still miss the playoff, in the not trade assumption, if Howard gets hurt we probably still make the playoff.
#1 I don't really see the point of crunching the numbers down to the last dollar when nobody knows what the salary cap set by the NBA will be for 2013-2014 until after July 1 (I think about July 10 to be more precise).been looking at this cap situation and doing a little research. this is the best the rockets can do.
asik=8374646
lin=8374646
harden=13668750
t-jones=1551840
d-mo=1422720
parsons=926500
g-smith=884293
Beverly=788872
j-Anderson=916099
r-white=1719480
that's a total of 38627846 on ten players. the rockets have 100 grand counted against the cap for tyler Honeycutt whom they let go at the beginning of last season raising the cap amount to 38727846. because the rockets will only have 10 players under contract they will need to add 474 grand for 1 vacant cap hold raising the cap amount to 39201846. the rockets only need 1 vacant cap hold because D-12 will be the 12th playergiving the rocketsthe minimum amount of players on the roster. if the cap lands at 60 mil the rockets will have the necessary room cutting the roster to these players and only moving t-rob. however what ever the amount the set cap from the NBA falls short of 60 mil the rockets must also move that much salary. of the players within the ten that the rockets would most like to move is Royce and this may not be an impossible task. the rocket still have 2 mil dollars they can apply in a trade this year. Royce makes a little over 1.7 mil. the rockets could tie him to a t-rob deal and ship the money along with him to pay his contract out. if the rockets can do that it will probably reduce the return on the deal in draft picks, but free up an additional 1.2 mil. the reason it will only free up this amount is by trading Royce it creates another vacant roster spot so an additional 474 grand much be added to the cap amount. however the total cap amount should the rocket be able to move both is 37482366 for nine players and 2 cap holds for 2 vacant roster spots. that leaves us enough room to sign howard to the max no matter what the cap is
@2016
if it added up like regular math I would agree......but it doesn't.
1. we already get quality play from all, but PF. and we are in position to get quality play there next year. so anyone added would have to have the production we could get from our own players subtracted from the production of the player we brought in
2. in addition we might be locking ourselves into contracts that are longer than we need. even if we sign D-12 we still have quite a bit of flexibility. why tie that up. lets wait and see what we have then make adjusments
That's different--we were just talking about how you calculated the value. Not if it's worth it.
Meh, look at it how you like--I am more concerned with the collective results than speculation about individual contributions.
I'm talking about sacrificing taking a guy who gives us 10 quality minutes for a guy who gives us 30 quality minutes. How does that not improve the collective results?
48 minutes each position x 5 positions = 240 minutes
You want to spend 50% of our budget on 48 minutes...
Meh, look at it how you like--I am more concerned with the collective results than speculation about individual contributions.
JG I'm more in tune with you on this one. it is a teams game after all.
Meh, look at it how you like--I am more concerned with the collective results than speculation about individual contributions.
There is more overlap with Dwight and Asik than there is with Dwight and someone who gives us 30+ high quality minutes, assuming those 30+ minutes aren't taking minutes away from other quality players. For example, hypothetically speaking, if those 30+ high quality minutes were to replace the lower/average quality minutes that we used to give to the likes of Delfino, Garcia, and Greg Smith, then the overlap is alot smaller. Emphasis on hypothetically because no one except Lebron plays 4 positions.
As for the win shares, lets not get too serious about that talk because it has been beaten to death. When I mentioned wins, I'm not actually mentioning win shares. I'm just using my own rough estimation based on my personal opinion--emphasis on rough.
It's hard to argue this stuff. Added wins, or win share, or whatever are so incredibly subjective and arbitrarily ignore all the hundreds of variables involved in order to quantify a player's supposed contribution. I mean, how many games do we win last year without Asik? Rather, how many more would we have lost? 6 games? 12 games? Who knows? Every alteration to a roster affects the entire team. For instance, if we bring in Howard what affect does that have on Harden? The answer is, "who cares?" the team will be better. Harden's numbers may drop as a result of having Howard on the team, but the collective team will be stronger for it.
I don't really care either way. I just thought that each position should be seen in a linear fashion and that overlaps occur with specific line-ups.
The point about there being just one ball is more true for those who need the ball in their hands. The bulk of Dwight's contribution comes without the ball in his hands imo.
I disagree. while he does do a lot of damage there don't underestimate his offensive ability. also the fact he wasn't touching the ball enough in LA is one of the hand full of reasons he is considering leaving
I think this math might be off a little. Howard's 10 wins would be added to the remainder of Asik's (6-4=2) resulting in a net Center production of +12. You don't subtract Asik's production from Howard as it is linear. Now, if you brought in a PF with a +10 and put him next to Howard with his +10 you would have to wait and see how the usage rates played out before extrapolating what kind of deductions to make for overlap. Since there is but the one ball it would be hard for each to maintain the same usage rate they had before (especially with Harden, Lin, and Parsons too).
The point about there being just one ball is more true for those who need the ball in their hands. The bulk of Dwight's contribution comes without the ball in his hands imo.
I think this math might be off a little. Howard's 10 wins would be added to the remainder of Asik's (6-4=2) resulting in a net Center production of +12. You don't subtract Asik's production from Howard as it is linear. Now, if you brought in a PF with a +10 and put him next to Howard with his +10 you would have to wait and see how the usage rates played out before extrapolating what kind of deductions to make for overlap. Since there is but the one ball it would be hard for each to maintain the same usage rate they had before (especially with Harden, Lin, and Parsons too).
very good point
I'm going to explore your win estimation for discussions sake.
Morey said that we should improve 4-5 wins next year with the same squad, but the addition of an elite player via FA could add another 10 wins on top of that. So if we get Dwight we should be nearing that 60 win range where we're finally true contenders again (barring major injuries), but that's only if there's no overlap which there is. We can't just add Dwight's 10 wins because the wins Dwight and Asik create overlap each other--they only partially stack.
So if Dwight gives us 10 wins, we have to subtract about 70% of the wins Asik gives us because his playing time will be cut by about 70%. Lets just say the average NBA player is worth 5 wins, and Asik is worth 6 wins. 70% of those 6 wins is roughly 4 wins which we substitute from Dwight's 10 leaving us with only a 6 win improvement on top of the 4-5 wins we improve with the same squad. So your estimate of us being a lower to mid 50 win team sounds pretty accurate... IF we don't trade Asik.
What if we could trade Asik for a player who creates the same amount of wins but gets more playing time? Then there won't be an overlap, and we can get those 4 wins that we had to subtract. This should indeed push us into that 60 win range where we're finally true contenders again (barring major injuries). Instead of aiming for the 2015 season, we could be aiming for the 2014 season making my nickname look very silly.
I think this math might be off a little. Howard's 10 wins would be added to the remainder of Asik's (6-4=2) resulting in a net Center production of +12. You don't subtract Asik's production from Howard as it is linear. Now, if you brought in a PF with a +10 and put him next to Howard with his +10 you would have to wait and see how the usage rates played out before extrapolating what kind of deductions to make for overlap. Since there is but the one ball it would be hard for each to maintain the same usage rate they had before (especially with Harden, Lin, and Parsons too).
if we trade asik for another player who doesn't overlap as you put it exactly where is he going to play. you probably going to say PF, but I argue why when we already have a stable of PFs that we need to finish developing and who may very well exceed our need in that position at a much more reasonable cost plus when we do play teams with 2 bigs asik give us the chance to match up to these teams better
I generally feel once your past point B it means you generally have the pieces you want, and then it's more a matter of getting system that best utilize all the pieces and getting the most out of everyone.
Of course there could be a Rudy Gay situation where you trade a guy you have kept for a long time , but that's the thing isn't it, even a guy as clearly overpaid and inefficient as Rudy Gay, the Grizz were very unwilling to punt .
Without any other moves (other then filling up the remaining spots with draftpicks / min guys) with Howard, I think we're already a lower to mid 50 wins team, certainly it would be better than where Memphis started at. the first year they had Zbo/ Marc / Conley they were 40-42, (4 seasons ago) the first year they had those 3 + Allen (the next season) they were 46-36, aka exactly the same as where we were this year, they had no real additions after that, they probably wished Gay still remembered how to shoot or Mayo lived up to at least half his hype, but essentially they took that 46 win core to the WCF 2 years later.
This is just my opinion, though Morey have stated as much that the majority of the team will return next year , I think at the very least if they get Howard they'll let this run a year before they really decide, and after that Lin / Asik / Parsons is all in their last contract year in theory so you would have to start making some choice anyway to evaluate.
The realistic goal for a championship is still the 14-15 season I'd guess. or maybe you know... 2016 ;)
I'm going to explore your win estimation for discussions sake.
Morey said that we should improve 4-5 wins next year with the same squad, but the addition of an elite player via FA could add another 10 wins on top of that. So if we get Dwight we should be nearing that 60 win range where we're finally true contenders again (barring major injuries), but that's only if there's no overlap which there is. We can't just add Dwight's 10 wins because the wins Dwight and Asik create overlap each other--they only partially stack.
So if Dwight gives us 10 wins, we have to subtract about 70% of the wins Asik gives us because his playing time will be cut by about 70%. Lets just say the average NBA player is worth 5 wins, and Asik is worth 6 wins. 70% of those 6 wins is roughly 4 wins which we substitute from Dwight's 10 leaving us with only a 6 win improvement on top of the 4-5 wins we improve with the same squad. So your estimate of us being a lower to mid 50 win team sounds pretty accurate... IF we don't trade Asik.
What if we could trade Asik for a player who creates the same amount of wins but gets more playing time? Then there won't be an overlap, and we can get those 4 wins that we had to subtract. This should indeed push us into that 60 win range where we're finally true contenders again (barring major injuries). Instead of aiming for the 2015 season, we could be aiming for the 2014 season making my nickname look very silly.
1.your both right they had their issues and that's y they couldn't find a team. I was just pointing out there is always players that are there for cheap that will produce..and I trust Morey will find them..also there will be players who will take a discount to play for a contender which we will be with Dwight.
2. To give better examples on what might happen this offseason(cause waiting til after the season starts for the real discounts might not be the best idea). Garcia I am confident will sign the 2.5 MLE. Oneal would sign a vet min I believe to back up Dwight need be for a chance at his first championship. Keeping Anderson at his rate is a good idea, the spurs havnt been wrong bout a player in like 10 years I believe he will produce with a set roll behind harden.and lastly I think Kenyon Martin would come at a vet min to win his first championship as well..that's cheap options at back up that work perfectly for what we need and sure Morey will find more(not mentioning Bev cause that's done already).
3.Your right that's it Moreys team to make. I was stating that Dwight wants Asik on the team he will be here..same with Lin
2. I believe Garcia will sign that deal too, however it's called the room exemption. as for O'neal............if he waited outside everyday till the season in front of Toyota center begging to play for free.....I would still pass :lol:he is WASHED UP. I would get bird man before him and I don't even like bird man.it amazes me he's still in the league. he hasn't done anything productive for years. I know you are only proposing he play limited minutes, butwe could probably get better production playing 5 against 4 :lol:Kenyon martin is interesting, but still not like having asik
3. it appears we agree on this..........just stating it differently even though I doubt D-12 has lin as a condition of signing
1.your both right they had their issues and that's y they couldn't find a team. I was just pointing out there is always players that are there for cheap that will produce..and I trust Morey will find them..also there will be players who will take a discount to play for a contender which we will be with Dwight.1. I'm more in line with Cooper on this. those players were available because they had baggage in the trunk
2. I disagree, but you're right lets just wait and see
3. Asik will bring more than Lin.....no argument there. however Asik brings more value because he is the better player. the idea is to obtain the most talent right. Asik can be beneficial to us more so than Lin. however this to depends on your point of view. lastly I think maybe Howard might have some say as to whether Asik stays or not, but I don't see Morey letting Howard pick the remainder of the team. he may consult with both Howard and Harden. but trust me Morey is the team builder around here
There have been multiple reports that Howard wants to play with Asik. Nothing from the horse's mouth, but the implications are there. That sounds like Twin Towers. One of those reports also stated that Howard doesn't want to be in an offense centered around the pick n roll.....that could be a problem. It's all speculation as there are no direct quotes from Dwight.
First I would like to point out that Barnes and bird man played at the vet min last year..good players will sign for less to be on a champ contender..it happens every year..Garcia would the 2.5 MLE and we could keep Anderson as the back up Sg
2. We really have beat the whole Lin thing to death lets just wait and see..I'm pretty sure that Morey will lean toward our thinking
3.asik will bring much more in a trade then Lin..he plays better and as we all know center are a lot harder to find then Pg's
However we all know that if Dwight signs he will get to pick the rest of the team..Asik for real might stay just so Howard doesn't have to work as hard in the reg season
1. I'm more in line with Cooper on this. those players were available because they had baggage in the trunk
2. I disagree, but you're right lets just wait and see
3. Asik will bring more than Lin.....no argument there. however Asik brings more value because he is the better player. the idea is to obtain the most talent right. Asik can be beneficial to us more so than Lin. however this to depends on your point of view. lastly I think maybe Howard might have some say as to whether Asik stays or not, but I don't see Morey letting Howard pick the remainder of the team. he may consult with both Howard and Harden. but trust me Morey is the team builder around here
This seems to be a somewhat prevalent assumption, but I could see it not being the case, because spinning for relative value is the plan when your going from point A to point B (aka the rebuilding phase.), but it's not how you go from point B to point C(hampionship), relative value wise, Chris Bosh and even Wade sucks right now. that doesn't mean it wasn't totally worth it .if you tell me we could spend 60 mill and 3 guys and we'll get 1 championship and 3 strait finals appearance right now, would you NOT take it? even if 2 of those guys looks pretty bad by year 3?
I will make a general prediction that if we get Dwight, Morey's approach will start changing considerable and roster turnovers will become limited to only the later half of the bench because once we get there, it's clearly past point B and going for point C.
I agree Morey's strategy will change the closer he gets to point c. after already having 2 stars aboard he will start looking at filling in the gaps more so than just flipping players for value alone
I generally feel once your past point B it means you generally have the pieces you want, and then it's more a matter of getting system that best utilize all the pieces and getting the most out of everyone.
Of course there could be a Rudy Gay situation where you trade a guy you have kept for a long time , but that's the thing isn't it, even a guy as clearly overpaid and inefficient as Rudy Gay, the Grizz were very unwilling to punt .
Without any other moves (other then filling up the remaining spots with draftpicks / min guys) with Howard, I think we're already a lower to mid 50 wins team, certainly it would be better than where Memphis started at. the first year they had Zbo/ Marc / Conley they were 40-42, (4 seasons ago) the first year they had those 3 + Allen (the next season) they were 46-36, aka exactly the same as where we were this year, they had no real additions after that, they probably wished Gay still remembered how to shoot or Mayo lived up to at least half his hype, but essentially they took that 46 win core to the WCF 2 years later.
This is just my opinion, though Morey have stated as much that the majority of the team will return next year , I think at the very least if they get Howard they'll let this run a year before they really decide, and after that Lin / Asik / Parsons is all in their last contract year in theory so you would have to start making some choice anyway to evaluate.
The realistic goal for a championship is still the 14-15 season I'd guess. or maybe you know... 2016 ;)
If point A to B is the rebuilding phase, how do you go from point B to point C without more building? If Morey get Dwight his approach should be tweaked but not abandoned, it's not time to lower the sails yet.
Rahat,
.
.
(I don't see any way Asik stays if the Rockets sign Dwight. It ignores everything Morey has shown as a GM-ie,trading players when their value is highest. Numerous teams need a C,have Cap Space and can offer a future First.)
I can see the argument against Dwight,I just don't agree with it.
This seems to be a somewhat prevalent assumption, but I could see it not being the case, because spinning for relative value is the plan when your going from point A to point B (aka the rebuilding phase.), but it's not how you go from point B to point C(hampionship), relative value wise, Chris Bosh and even Wade sucks right now. that doesn't mean it wasn't totally worth it .if you tell me we could spend 60 mill and 3 guys and we'll get 1 championship and 3 strait finals appearance right now, would you NOT take it? even if 2 of those guys looks pretty bad by year 3?
I will make a general prediction that if we get Dwight, Morey's approach will start changing considerable and roster turnovers will become limited to only the later half of the bench because once we get there, it's clearly past point B and going for point C.
I give up.
Just because we have more depth at PF doesn't mean we should trade a prospect with potentially rising value in order to keep Aaron Brooks. There have been numerous people here who have mentioned the concept of selling high rather than selling low, I'm not sure you get it so let me put it into a hypothetical situation.
If you have a baseball card that is worth $5 today but has the potential to be worth $20 a year later, would you rather sell it for $5 or keep it for a year and sell it for $20? The answer should be obvious..
T-Robinson is like that basketball card that could be worth more later because he's still improving, same thing could be said about Lin. However, the same thing is less likely with Asik because he's already 26 years old and probably near the peak of his value already. Some might even argue that Asik's value is higher now because stars with multiple years left on their contract are typically more valuable as trade assets than stars with only a year left (hence the fact the Magic got lowballed for Dwight). So if anything, Asik might be a $20 baseball card this year but a $10 baseball card next year.
Get it?
trust me I get it, but I think Lin's value is as high as it's going to get. also t-rob is less promising than either t-jones or d-mo and maybe g-smith so the loss of him may make Lin easier to move. if you truly understand the concept you advocate then surely you would have to admit both players have a chance of falling on their faces and their value dropping even lower. not only is it important to sell high it's also important to know when to sell for maximum value attainable
Just because we have more depth at PF doesn't mean we should trade a prospect with potentially rising value in order to keep Aaron Brooks. There have been numerous people here who have mentioned the concept of selling high rather than selling low, I'm not sure you get it so let me put it into a hypothetical situation.
If you have a baseball card that is worth $5 today but has the potential to be worth $20 a year later, would you rather sell it for $5 or keep it for a year and sell it for $20? The answer should be obvious..
T-Robinson is like that basketball card that could be worth more later because he's still improving, same thing could be said about Lin. However, the same thing is less likely with Asik because he's already 26 years old and probably near the peak of his value already. Some might even argue that Asik's value is higher now because stars with multiple years left on their contract are typically more valuable as trade assets than stars with only a year left (hence the fact the Magic got lowballed for Dwight). So if anything, Asik might be a $20 baseball card this year but a $10 baseball card next year.
Get it?
1. So you're saying you would rather keep Aaron Brooks than T-Rob?
2. I highly doubt anyone will take Royce White because there's way too much legal drama there.
1. we have more depth at PF than at PG. it would simply be based on need.
2. I wouldn't be so sure about the rockets ability to move his contract. the rockets have 2 mil dollars left they can use in a trade this year. they can in effect ship Royce out along with the money to buy his contract out.
I really don't think Lin will net much if anything in a trade especially if we aren't taking any salary back let alone dumping Royce White with him. And thinking guys like delfino would sign for the minimum is just as ridiculous. We are going to have an entire bench of James Andersons next year if they don't cut salary enough to bring in depth,which is a recipe for disaster ala the LA Lakers.
I really don't think Linwill bring all that much in return via trade either, but I'm sure the Lin advocates would feel differently :lol:anyway....if we can silp Royce in the deal........and we don't have to take back salary......a 2nd rounder in 2035is good for me :lol:
true trading Lin will get the same job done....glad you pointed that out. trading Lin and T-rob together will not only bring a better return, but free up more cap space to bring in supporting pieces. that way you keep brooks for depth at point guard till help can be brought in. besides if you trade Lin and T-rob together you might even be able to slip Royce in the deal freeing another 1.7 mil. Lin at 8.3 t-rob at 3.5 and Royce at 1.7 = 13.5 plenty of room for D-12 and wing pieces to fill out the team
1. So you're saying you would rather keep Aaron Brooks than T-Rob?
2. I highly doubt anyone will take Royce White because there's way too much legal drama there.
This is true unless we keep certain players we were going to have to get rid off for cap space (Greg Smith, Aaron Brooks, T-Rob, James Anderson ect.)
Now, before RBF reminds us that the same calculations apply if we trade Jeremy Lin, let me point out that Jeremy Lin gives us depth at positions where we lack depth. So trading him would actually hurt our depth more than trading Asik would. Also, keep in mind that there's a good chance we are bringing Furkan Aldemir over from Turkey (he's a center).
Another argument RBF will probably make is that we can keep Aaron Brooks as our back-up pg, but the calculations don't work. If we keep T-Rob we can't keep Aaron Brooks too, trading Asik/Lin only makes enough room for Dwight and T-Rob.
true trading Lin will get the same job done....glad you pointed that out. trading Lin and T-rob together will not only bring a better return, but free up more cap space to bring in supporting pieces. that way you keep brooks for depth at point guard till help can be brought in. besides if you trade Lin and T-rob together you might even be able to slip Royce in the deal freeing another 1.7 mil. Lin at 8.3 t-rob at 3.5 and Royce at 1.7 = 13.5 plenty of room for D-12 and wing pieces to fill out the team
RBF,
Delfino got $3mil last season and it was a great deal for Houston.
The back-up PG was a late First Rd pick on last yr of rookie deal.
Beverly was signed in Dec for depth,and just happened to outplay Douglas.
However the other back-up wings were the disaster that was Cook and Anderson. If Sacramento hadn't come calling and insisted on dumping Garcia the Rockets would have been in a world of hurt once Delfino came up hobbled.
W/Asik and Howard the Rockets will only have the $2.5mil Exception and assorted mins to fill out roster.
The only reserve wings on team will be waived to get Howard.
They'll have $2.5mil to sign ONE player and the other reserves will be rookies or min vets.
OTOH,by trading Asik at the height of his tradeability,the team will have $8mil to spend on a bench,PLUS the $2.5mil Exception.
delfino was a bargain for the rockets and so was Beverly. Morey found them and I trust he will do it again. also remember he found the sac deal too.
the rest of your statement I will address with 2016 since he insist on answering for me :lol:
by trading Asik at the height of his tradeability,the team will have$8mil to spend on a bench
This is true unless we keep certain players we were going to have to get rid off for cap space (Greg Smith, Aaron Brooks, T-Rob, James Anderson ect.)
Now, before RBF reminds us that the same calculations apply if we trade Jeremy Lin, let me point out that Jeremy Lin gives us depth at positions where we lack depth. So trading him would actually hurt our depth more than trading Asik would. Also, keep in mind that there's a good chance we are bringing Furkan Aldemir over from Turkey (he's a center).
Another argument RBF will probably make is that we can keep Aaron Brooks as our back-up pg, but the calculations don't work. If we keep T-Rob we can't keep Aaron Brooks too, trading Asik/Lin only makes enough room for Dwight and T-Rob.
RBF,
Delfino got $3mil last season and it was a great deal for Houston.
The back-up PG was a late First Rd pick on last yr of rookie deal.
Beverly was signed in Dec for depth,and just happened to outplay Douglas.
However the other back-up wings were the disaster that was Cook and Anderson. If Sacramento hadn't come calling and insisted on dumping Garcia the Rockets would have been in a world of hurt once Delfino came up hobbled.
W/Asik and Howard the Rockets will only have the $2.5mil Exception and assorted mins to fill out roster.
The only reserve wings on team will be waived to get Howard.
They'll have $2.5mil to sign ONE player and the other reserves will be rookies or min vets.
OTOH,by trading Asik at the height of his tradeability,the team will have $8mil to spend on a bench,PLUS the $2.5mil Exception.
@Stephen
didn't our backup shootingguard and backup small forward come from the bargain bin last year? we did alright with them. not saying that's my preferred method, but I trust Morey to find us good talent cheap. however backup centers are a different story. most teams don't even have the consideration of keeping 2 good 7 footers. heck some teams would like to just get 1. 8.3 mil is a little above board for a backup center, but the advantages it affords the team can not be underestimated either. the real question is do you feel that the disadvantages out weigh the advantages. In my opinion they don't
Adding Howard makes the Rockets legitimate contenders; that alone should be enough of a reason to sign him, but it doesn't guarantee a championship. Health, chemistry and luck have a tremendous say in this (ask OKC).
totally agree....................the poster against howard's signing are overreacting to the media portrayal of him
Adding Howard makes the Rockets legitimate contenders; that alone should be enough of a reason to sign him, but it doesn't guarantee a championship. Health, chemistry and luck have a tremendous say in this (ask OKC).
Rahat,
I agree with you,but I do understand the argument.
Basically is Dwight better than Asik and stud PF(insert name here)? (I don't see any way Asik stays if the Rockets sign Dwight. It ignores everything Morey has shown as a GM-ie,trading players when their value is highest. Numerous teams need a C,have Cap Space and can offer a future First.)
I can see the argument against Dwight,I just don't agree with it.
The available FA PFs have flaws equally as bad as Dwight's,if not more so,and none are true Stars.
Stars get the benefit of the doubt from refs-see how long Dwight can play w/5 fouls vs Smith,Jefferson,etc. They get national attention. Think ABC,ESPN,TNT will give the Rockets just a handful of games if Dwight is on the team? Constantly being on National TV changes perceptions about a team and it's city.
Dwight will have CHOSEN Houston,he wouldn't have been traded here. Other FA players will see one of the premier players in the League choosing Houston because he thought the Rockets gave him the best chance to win. No longer will Morey be looking at kids and older vets trying to resurrect their careers.(He'll probablystill sign the kids,but he has a bigger pool to look at first :) .)
Asik is a fine C and he still has room to grow and I'd be happy with him for the next few yrs. But his hands are bad and they will stay bad. He has almost zero ability to go up for an alley-oop and complete the play,resulting in higher risk passes thru traffic in order to get him the ball.
Howard on the other hand can elevate. Harden,Lin,Parsons,etc when driving the lane could toss it up for Dwight and not have to try bounce passes(which give defenders a split-second to recover) or passes thru traffic. Turnovers will go down and hi-light plays will fire up home crowds,which sparks young teams.
And it's not Howard vs Asik/stud PF TBD. It's Howard and $8mil in Cap Space to sign bench help AND a future First vs Asik/PF and no Cap Space to sign anyone else. I'd rather not have my back-up SG and SF come from the 99¢ bargain bin.
You have to be aware of a "prevalent opinion against Howard" unless you haven't been paying attention to anything outside of Red94. Just read the commends on this article for starters:http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterockets/2013/06/why-settle-for-one-rockets-going-after-howard-and-paul/
Also, there was a national poll on ESPN asking if "yes or no" if you would want Dwight Howard on your team. The consensus was no for every single state in America, I was speechless when I saw that..
I really don't see a "prevalent opinion against Howard" in our discussions on these boards. However, there certainly is some consternation on whether the Rockets can really afford the luxury of both D12 and Asik on the roster at the same time. For the Rockets to add D12, they will have to jettison what depth they managed to acquire last season after dumping the entire roster sans Chandler Parsons and Greg Smith. My argument has been the Rockets would be wiser to use Asik's salary slot to have better depth rather than pay Asik his $8.3 million while relegating him to a part-time player.New post: Dwight Howard Free Agency Watch: Part 4
By: rahat huq
As I mentioned in my last installment, one baffling phenomenon is the fairly prevalent opinion that the Rockets would be better off without Dwight Howard. From every angle, I just can't seem to make sense of the sentiment.
This was a great piecefrom Bill Simmons written some weeks ago in which, essentially, he argues that Howard is on the decline. Funny thing is that I completely agree. His best years are behind him and if he signs a four year deal with Houston, at the end of the term, when at age 31, I would be willing to bet that that would be the end of his days as a Rocket. I don't think he'll be worth a max contract any more at that point in time.
(sidenote: Amazingly, James Harden will still just be 28 when the Howard era ends and if the team plans properly, which they obviously will, they'll be able to reload for another run in The Beard era after Howard's contracts comes off the books.)
But that Howard is on the decline shouldn't preclude a pursuit of the center. He's still greatly effective and one of the best finishers in the league. And while his character warts are evident (is there a more obnoxious personality in the league?), what exactly are the opportunity costs? First off, I don't need to delineate upon his oncourt abilities: those points have been hammered to death. But the Howard detractors act as if some other viable option is being overlooked. Josh Smith too will soon be on the decline and handing out large contracts to players like Paul Millsap is the surest way to perpetuate mediocrity. Howard at least is still elite at what he does, even if he might not ever be the same.
I think fans often suffer from "Tim Duncan Syndrome", assuming that if a player isn't perfect, they just aren't worth it. There's only one Duncan. For everyone else, it's an analysis of risk, weighing cons against pros, and a determination of what negatives can be absorbed. Dwight Howard possibly isn't worth $20million in vacuo of other considerations. But if cast against the spectrum of this Rockets' teams current outlook in fitting a final piece, the price is a no-brainer.
All 6 bigs have a reliable mid-range jumpshot (in Gasol's case, more of a set shot from the free throw line out to the top of the key). Thus spacing is going to be more effective as the defense has to try to prevent a bucket at the hole as well as defending against one of these guys shooting an uncontested jumper from outside.
Just exactly why would the Rockets with D12 and Asik on the floor simultaneously be OK with having D12 or Asik taking uncontested jumpers from outside? Because that is precisely what the defense will be willing to give up since neither has any history of shooting reliably from outside
Otis thorp outside shot stunk most of his points came from weak side slams and put backs or P&R.......if you read all of this thread you will see that this lineup is being discussed as a part time lineup along with all the other lineups available to us with the talent that will be on hand. so it's not the only option available to us.....just one of many
C'mon RBF, you're smarter than that! So D12 is in the block and being double teamed (thus 3 bigs or 2 bigs and a tall SF is clogging the lane) and somehow Asik rolls to the lane for a dumk? Just exactly how does Asik do this? Does he jump over D12 and the 2 guys guarding him and end up on the other side of the basket, has D12 pass him the ball for the dunk? I mean this is just amazing that anyone would think there is any chance this play would or could work!
That's the problem with D12 and Asik playing together, neither has an outside shot, the defense will simply sag having probably 3 defensive players down low inviting the Rockets to take outside shots. I like 3 point shots just as much as anyone else, but surely the Rockets can be more creative with D12 on the floor other than just relying on outside shooting? What happens in the games when we're not hitting from the outside which happens more often than not in the NBA?
1st off if 3 players are on D-12 scoring should be no problem for the remaining four rockets. I respect your opinion that you think it won't work I just don't agree
As I mentioned in my last installment, one baffling phenomenon is the fairly prevalent opinion that the Rockets would be better off without Dwight Howard. From every angle, I just can't seem to make sense of the sentiment.
This was a great piece from Bill Simmons written some weeks ago in which, essentially, he argues that Howard is on the decline. Funny thing is that I completely agree. His best years are behind him and if he signs a four year deal with Houston, at the end of the term, when at age 31, I would be willing to bet that that would be the end of his days as a Rocket. I don't think he'll be worth a max contract any more at that point in time.
(sidenote: Amazingly, James Harden will still just be 28 when the Howard era ends and if the team plans properly, which they obviously will, they'll be able to reload for another run in The Beard era after Howard's contracts comes off the books.)
But that Howard is on the decline shouldn't preclude a pursuit of the center. He's still greatly effective and one of the best finishers in the league. And while his character warts are evident (is there a more obnoxious personality in the league?), what exactly are the opportunity costs? First off, I don't need to delineate upon his oncourt abilities: those points have been hammered to death. But the Howard detractors act as if some other viable option is being overlooked. Josh Smith too will soon be on the decline and handing out large contracts to players like Paul Millsap is the surest way to perpetuate mediocrity. Howard at least is still elite at what he does, even if he might not ever be the same.
I think fans often suffer from "Tim Duncan Syndrome", assuming that if a player isn't perfect, they just aren't worth it. There's only one Duncan. For everyone else, it's an analysis of risk, weighing cons against pros, and a determination of what negatives can be absorbed. Dwight Howard possibly isn't worth $20million in vacuo of other considerations. But if cast against the spectrum of this Rockets' teams current outlook in fitting a final piece, the price is a no-brainer.
Dr. J a big? Really? The Dr. J I remember growing up and watching was not a PF!! Certainly not a C!!I'm simply pointing out that they can shoot mids--as the conversation seemed to be heading towards an ideal that Howard/Asik are incapable of doing so. I will repeat that I am not endorsing an offense run through this ideal.
TTDN's request for an example of two big men without much skill winning a title has not been fulfilled because, as far as I know, it does not exist--perhaps the closest would be Dr. J and Moses Malone???? They had some skills though so doesn't really count--I only include them because the majority of their damage occurred at and around the rim which is what we would be looking at with Dwight/Omer.
I think it is short-sighted to quantify success as "winning a championship". By this criteria, Stockton and Malone did not run successful pick n rolls and those Jazz teams were a waste of time and energy. I'm not trying to twist anything, but "success" can be defined in many ways. The Clippers were successful with Griffin and Jordan this year--they got out-played in the play-offs, but that happens.
Further, I believe the Rockets' can be the exception to the rule as our personnel will be different and will balance the equation quite well. Flanking our two bruising front court players with three wing players that can knock down threes, dribble-drive, and dish will turn the front court's weaknesses into a non-factor. It will be a rare team that can both defend Dwight in the post effectively while also stifling our dribble penetration and three point shooting. The defense on our end goes without saying.
If it wasn't the fact that by rostering both D12 and Asik the Rockets would have 45% of their cap space dedicated to 2 guys playing basically the same position (granted, there would be some LIMITED opportunities to play both together at the same time), I would be fine with this situation. Who in their right mind wouldn't want Asik as a dependable backup for D12? Except it doesn't work well for the cap space limitations that would create for the Rockets. I do agree that if D12 comes to Houston, there is a good possibility Asik will still be here up to at least the Trade Deadline in February 2014. Then we'll have an opportunity to see which side of the ongoing, continuing, never ending argument pro- and con- the combination of D12 and Asik was right.The more I think about the arguments against they seem to be based in them being on the court at the same time which is obviously not looking at the whole picture. It is hard to argue with that kind of debating. As you all may know I really like to look at the big picture and having both of these centers at least through the deadline gives the Rockets at least one starting center if the other were to have injuries and the luxury to not have to rush the injured one back. I don't believe we can afford to waste (lean on to heavily again) another of Harden's prime years. Like I said before if Dwight stays productive and Asik remains the backup wouldn't his trade value still be high?
OK, so if D12 isn't guarding Carmelo, but in your logic, Parsons instead would, then just exactly who is Asik or D12 going to be guarding? Carmelo played primarily PF for the Knicks this past season with Chandler and 3 smalls. SO are you insinuating that D12 or Asik would be chasing around one of the Knicks smalls on the perimeter rather than putting D12 or Asik on Melo? Really?I think the counter point is that defending Melo is more of a concept than a practice, having a Serge Ibaka on him still won't do much good if his shots are falling. you might be better off just securing the paint and hope his shots don't fall .
This is true for alot of those elite guys, Paul George didn't really guard Lebron either, he still scored a ton, what did prevent Lebron at least a little was actually Hibbert, he would at least force Lebron to be doing that 30 from jumpers he makes 50-60% of the time and not layups. that he makes 120% of the time.
Defense in the NBA isn't really 1 on 1 with a shot blocker though, not this day and age, you look at the league, teams that really still just match whoever's playing your defense 1 on 1 basically make up the bottom 5 hopeless teams of doom like the Bobcats.
Against the Knicks, if we use that as example, you surely have Parsons go 1 on 1 with Melo anyway, regardless if you have a PF or not (unless you have Josh Smith.) the thing with the Knicks this year though is that they surrounded him with nothing but shooters (outside of Tyson Chandler obviously) But you can still really play a zone that cuts away the high percentage 3 areas. or you just guard him with a Asik and stay away from him enough that basically baits him to take long 2. The weird thing with Melo is that open shot and contested shots don't make a huge amount of difference to him, if that's the case, why not just leave him open? he shoots 44% there which is very good for long 2s and that's still just 0.8 pts per play not including turnovers and unlikely to get fouls, you take that every day from the opposing #1 guy.
Against other teams, there are usually guys you can leave open anyway. OKC for example, you want to dare Westbrook to take the jumper by just packing the paint to no end. If Westbrook is taking jumpers instead of steam rolilng to the rim you take that every day .
I think people forget that the Rockets were sending Asik out to chase LaMarcus Aldrich / Dirk around almost every game they played against those teams anyway.
Defensively I think the problem is far less , there may be certain matchups where it doesn't work on particular days, offensively I can see the problem more but figure if we're not using it as the primary lineup who cares, the reason why you have special lineup is precisely because they have certain holes that would be problematic in the longer run to begin with.
Oh no, did JG really go there? Comparing Dream and Thorpe with a D12/Asik combo? Really? Since when does either D12 or Asik have a comparable outside shot to Dream or Thorpe? That is one of the reasons the Dream and Thorpe combination worked so effectively. Both at times could take their man outside of the box and shoot a reasonably decent percentage from outside. When Dream was on, that really, really opened up things on the outside which is why the Rockets were killing it from the 3 point line back then with wide open 3's.I agree. I am not advocating running Asik and Howard side by side all game long--I guess that gets lost in everything else. Like you said, for 10-15 minutes a game it gives us a very different look that I think will be hard to match. Dwight is going to want some post touches--why not keep Asik on the other side of the post during that stretch? He can corral rebounds and prevent the weakside shot blocker from coming over as he has to box out Asik. At this point, if they want to double Howard it has to come from the perimeter--which means a pass out from Howard (which he can do) and swing it around the perimeter for the open 3. This works within our offensive philosophy and is largely the same offense the Rockets ran during our championship runs. Thorpe would be Asik, Hakeem is Howard, and Maxwell, Cassell, and Kenny Smith, etc. are Harden/Lin/Parsons, etc. Now before everyone gets upset about me comparing Hakeem to Howard (I agree it's not even close)--all I'm saying is he can score in the post at a solid percentage and, when healthy, requires a double team--like Hakeem.
To take the analogy further, Harden can be what Drexler was once he stepped in--a relentless driver to the rim that often pulls up and shoots the 3-ball. This twist on the offense still works well as defenses must begin collapsing on the drives and Harden can just drop off easy passes left or right depending on who is open and which way he goes--by having two outlet passes available on the baseline the defense cannot afford to shade one way or the other and it will make Harden's job easier. If you guys don't like that then go back to the high screen where Asik instead of rolling to the other side (where Howard would be) rolls behind Harden, as a trailer, and can get an easy drop off pass or go up for a good rebounding opportunity with Howard--who doesn't want Asik and Howard crashing the boards at the same time?
It would be great if one of those two could consistently shoot mids--or even threes--but it's not the end of the world. They have so much talent in the other departments that I think things still work in our favor. And again, it's only 10-15 minutes per game....and those 10-15 minutes our opponents will not be scoring much so even if the offense bogs down a little (which it shouldn't if we feed Dwight in the post during that time) we should still come out ahead. Remember, this means that one of Dwight/Asik will be working against a PF down low--that spells advantage to me.
Jefferson can score consistently in the post--that is all. Sometimes you just need a bucket--and he can do that. That was my point.
All 6 bigs have a reliable mid-range jumpshot (in Gasol's case, more of a set shot from the free throw line out to the top of the key). Thus spacing is going to be more effective as the defense has to try to prevent a bucket at the hole as well as defending against one of these guys shooting an uncontested jumper from outside.there are plenty of examples...........Otis thorp and dream, david robinson and tim Duncan. z-bo and gasol need I go on? also if you mean without either having a killer outside shot I don't think z-bo and gasol are burning up the charts from outside. they shoot one every now and then, but both their games are primarily inside
C'mon RBF, you're smarter than that! So D12 is in the block and being double teamed (thus 3 bigs or 2 bigs and a tall SF is clogging the lane) and somehow Asik rolls to the lane for a dumk? Just exactly how does Asik do this? Does he jump over D12 and the 2 guys guarding him and end up on the other side of the basket, has D12 pass him the ball for the dunk? I mean this is just amazing that anyone would think there is any chance this play would or could work!who says both howard and asik will be camped out in the paint? they can work just like z-bo and gasol.....howard on the block....asik on the baseline....if they double howard with asik's man asik can roll to the basket for a dunk....problem solved
Your advice is cliche. It's like someone with no carpentry experience telling other people with no carpentry experience "why pay someone to build your house for you when you can build it yourself?".
If I was an aspiring CBA expert I would heed your advice, but I'm not. I'm just a humble layman, my expertise lies elsewhere.
did you add up my numbers?........if you read below the numbers I have accounted for cap holds...........go here
http://www.hoopsworld.com/houston-rockets-team-salary these are the numbers used...........a couple words of advice............never doubt yourself, the world does enough of that for you......... if you don't believe you can then you can't..........there are 2 kind of people in the world.....leaders and followers. just because a person is the leader doesn't mean he isn't prone to the mistakes all other humans make.
right here
There are things about the cap you don't know, it's not a simple matter of adding up salaries. For example:
- You named 10 players, but you failed to acknowledge the fact that a roster requires a minimum of 12 players and there is a cap hold for those other two spots.
- You acknowledged the cap hold for Tyler Honeycutt, but how do you know he's the only player released where a cap hold remains on our books?
- Simply put, there are decisions Morey has made that you don't know about, and some of those decisions may have affected our salary books in ways you don't know about.
This isn't just a matter of simply putting numbers into a calculator, it's far more complicated than that.
did you add up my numbers?........if you read below the numbers I have accounted for cap holds...........go here
http://www.hoopsworld.com/houston-rockets-team-salary these are the numbers used...........a couple words of advice............never doubt yourself, the world does enough of that for you......... if you don't believe you can then you can't..........there are 2 kind of people in the world.....leaders and followers. just because a person is the leader doesn't mean he isn't prone to the mistakes all other humans make.
There are things about the cap you don't know, it's not a simple matter of adding up salaries. For example:
This isn't just a matter of simply putting numbers into a calculator, it's far more complicated than that.
I'm stating one simple fact:
Supreme expert > Layman
That's not a question of anyone's intelligence...
the experts once thought the world was flat till a layman sailed around it
2016 if you think my math is wrong then add it up. follow what I listed step by step. the rockets have a whole bevy of ways to make the necessary room. what I listed is the way for them to hold on to the maximum amount of last years team while adding D-12. these numbers come from coon's website. so it's not that I am calling the man a lie. maybe he isn't taking everything I am under consideration. also you don't know if he is taking every aspect under consideration. that's why you should do them for yourself. just because you were wrong once :rolleyes:doesn't mean a second try won't mean success.
I'm stating one simple fact:
Supreme expert > Layman
That's not a question of anyone's intelligence...
are you saying you doubt your own abilities to figure this out, because if that's the case then maybe you do need other's to think for you
A layman calling Larry Coon wrong on a CBA calculation he made is like a layman calling Issac Newton wrong aboutex=∑xk/ k!Most experts wouldn't even dare, let alone a layman..
It's not about doubting your own abilities, it's about knowing your place.
Meh, we all know Morey is all-in for Dwight...if he wants to come to Houston Morey will find a way to work the numbers. I'd say the only two players that are untouchable are Harden and Parsons.
agreed..........however unless cp3 is coming with howard....I would add asik to that list
Meh, we all know Morey is all-in for Dwight...if he wants to come to Houston Morey will find a way to work the numbers. I'd say the only two players that are untouchable are Harden and Parsons.
RBF,
I've done my own calculations before and called Larry Coon wrong. I ended up eating crow, and ever since then I learned my lesson.
are you saying you doubt your own abilities to figure this out, because if that's the case then maybe you do need other's to think for you
RBF,
I've done my own calculations before and called Larry Coon wrong. I ended up eating crow, and ever since then I learned my lesson.
It will make SOME people eat crow. I'll admit my mistake if I'm wrong. Will you?
I'll be first in line....It would be hard to deny it at this point :D
As for the rotations and such....I'm counting on rotation defense--that's the whole point. Dwight and Asik shouldn't be passing much--they should be finishing. If run properly, the play ends with them getting 2 points at the rim/getting fouled. If we are running inside out from the post I have faith that Dwight can manage a pass to the perimeter--I mean c'mon--he's not a giant sack of potatoes.
Here...I think this is a fair representation of what we can expect...some of the passes are sloppy, but he can pass the ball.
You don't seriously expect anyone to trust your CBA calculations over THIS guy do you? The creator of www.CBAfaq.com ....
I expect you to do it for yourself and stop leaning on other's to think for you
You don't seriously expect anyone to trust your CBA calculations over THIS guy do you? The creator of www.CBAfaq.com ....
been looking at this cap situation and doing a little research. this is the best the rockets can do.
asik=8374646
lin=8374646
harden=13668750
t-jones=1551840
d-mo=1422720
parsons=926500
g-smith=884293
Beverly=788872
j-Anderson=916099
r-white=1719480
that's a total of 38627846 on ten players. the rockets have 100 grand counted against the cap for tyler Honeycutt whom they let go at the beginning of last season raising the cap amount to 38727846. because the rockets will only have 10 players under contract they will need to add 474 grand for 1 vacant cap hold raising the cap amount to 39201846. the rockets only need 1 vacant cap hold because D-12 will be the 12th playergiving the rocketsthe minimum amount of players on the roster. if the cap lands at 60 mil the rockets will have the necessary room cutting the roster to these players and only moving t-rob. however what ever the amount the set cap from the NBA falls short of 60 mil the rockets must also move that much salary. of the players within the ten that the rockets would most like to move is Royce and this may not be an impossible task. the rocket still have 2 mil dollars they can apply in a trade this year. Royce makes a little over 1.7 mil. the rockets could tie him to a t-rob deal and ship the money along with him to pay his contract out. if the rockets can do that it will probably reduce the return on the deal in draft picks, but free up an additional 1.2 mil. the reason it will only free up this amount is by trading Royce it creates another vacant roster spot so an additional 474 grand much be added to the cap amount. however the total cap amount should the rocket be able to move both is 37482366 for nine players and 2 cap holds for 2 vacant roster spots. that leaves us enough room to sign howard to the max no matter what the cap is
this is the math
In all those sets which involves a pass to either Asik or Dwight, I think you're underestimating rotation defense and overestimating Dwight and Asik's passing abilities.
I do agree wholeheartedly with one thing you said, and that is that it will be interesting to see it in action. I do believe Larry Coon's calculations are correct though, although I've yet to confirm it with another cap expert.
JG
from that play you could also have Asik and Howard which side of the elbow right as harden gets ready to drive with one of the 2 rolling to the basket and the other setting a screen for harden. you either get a lob slam a harden layup or an open 3 pointer
Absolutely, I think each of these plays into the Rocket's philosophy of lay-up, foul, or three pointer. It's akin to the video I posted of Mike D'Antoni explaining the basic pick n roll. It's unstoppable in theory--the only problems are making the right reads and executing the shots that are taken. Harden and Lin will be responsible for making these reads (Parsons as well) and then executing.
All of this, and we still have the luxury of just tossing the ball into the post and letting Dwight work. It let's the wings rest and punishes the post defenders while still running an effective play with a high percentage.
This is another Miami-inspired set. They manage to make Chris Andersen look like a star using this set (or something akin to it...I think George Karl uses it as well).
So once again, the ball is in Harden's hands on the right wing with Asik setting a pick. The idea is simple--Harden gets past and forces Dwight's man to rotate over to stop the drive...at this point it's easy...either assist off the back board and let Dwight get the "rebound assist" or if Dwight can flash to the open space created and get a quick pass from Harden and then flush it down. If Bron and Bird can do it I don't see why Harden and Howard couldn't.
Plus, I love the idea of the corner 3 guy (say Parsons) cutting baseline and feigning like he is trying to use Howard as a screen to come free for a three pointer on the left side. Instead, he stops and screens Howard's man, allowing Howard to roll underneath to the right post where the odds are a SF is stuck trying to defend him in the post (a quick entry pass is necessary for this, but with some practice I don't see why the Rockets can't run this play successfully). Again, plenty of options abound in this set.
JG
from that play you could also have Asik and Howard which side of the elbow right as harden gets ready to drive with one of the 2 rolling to the basket and the other setting a screen for harden. you either get a lob slam a harden layup or an open 3 pointer
Here's another one that I have posted before (it's been a while)
Here, Howard and Asik set up in the high posts. Once again, this is a read and react situation. The ball is in Harden's hands at the top of the key. He can go left or right. If a post defender hedges out to block his driving path our guy immediately rolls to the hoop and receives an easy lob. The wing defenders will be forced to collapse hard so that the post defenders don't surrender this. At this point the three point shooters get nice, easy looks.
One of my favorite things about this is the potential to "seal" the post defenders....
JG
you are on on a role.......GO GO GO GO! :lol:
I'm on a roll now :)
Here is another Howard/Asik set:
So, Harden is up top. This is not very different from our current offense; in fact, I think this will please you 2016. The three wings run over-lapping screens and picks until someone "gets a step" on their defender (akin to what Miami does sometimes). At that point they drive to the hoop. The defense must react, but how? They can't leave their man, but if they don't the dribbler will get a lay-up. If they do leave their man this is where the pull-up jumper becomes lethal. Either shoot the short jumper and let your rebounders work, or (what I would prefer) it's a fake pull-up jumper. Once the dribbler sees the defense has committed to stopping them they pull up for the jump shot, but really they are just getting position to make the easy pass over the top to whoever the defense left alone for an easy dunk/lay-up.
Further, if say after 15 seconds the wings can't create their own space we can still drop it into the post with Howard, or have one of them slide up for a high-post screen and run a play off of that. Options abound!
I partially agree on the bolded part due to the fact only 1 team wins every year, which is partially why I preemptively rephrased TTDN's question as follows:
"When have two big men with an unreliable jump shot EVER made it to the finals in the last 25 years?"
The way that question is phrased makes your point about the Utah Jazzinapplicable. And I disagree that the Clippers were successful this year. Ibelievethe playoffs expose weaknesses, and they clearly were exposed.
Now onto that last part where you think Rockets might be an exception. I partially agree to that too. I think the way you picture it in your head (which youillustratedin the neat little picture above) might work in the regular season, but it won't work in the playoffs where the defensive intensity is higher.
I missed the adjustment to "made it to the finals"--my bad.
I disagree that the Rockets can't be successful in this manner in the playoffs. With two stars in tow--Howard and Harden flanked by solid role players in Lin/Bev, Parsons, and Asik we have an excellent chance. Harden can still drive and dish. Howard is still a beast on the block. Our defense will be supreme (especially if we are able to somehow re-sign Francisco Garcia to a smaller contract). The other team has to score too.
Realistically, how many teams have the defensive fortitude to stop our attack (both inside and out) while simultaneously having the offensive ability to overcome what should be a top-flight defense? We should have the advantage on both ends of the floor. To me, that spells wins. Any team that hopes to stop us will need to have excellent front court depth to absorb the amount of fouls they will rack up trying to stop Harden and Howard at the rim. Those fouls keep opposing starters on the bench.
Still thinking about fouls, how many fouls will the opposition rack up trying to box out Asik? They have to put their PF on him since a C will be required to guard Howard. How many PF's can legitimately box out Asik on a consistent basis and not pick up a few fouls? I don't know, but my guess is not many.
This discussion is quite fascinating to me--I can't wait for the opportunity to see it in action. I know that there is a strong chance it doesn't work--and that's fine--as has been mentioned we can easily move Asik mid-season.....but if it does work....whoa! Potentially a #1 defensive ranking to go along with a potent inside-out or outside-in (depending on the opposition) offense. The only potential pitfall I see is Howard's free throw shooting...
In thinking about the playoffs--I still think that we will not be stubborn about it. Each series and match-up are different. We will have the luxury of being able to play multiple styles and sets in order to garner an advantage.
Trust me, I'm not being bias here. I've looked at all the information, and I've considered all the good points everyone has made. Here's one:
"In 09 playoffs Dwight fouled out 4 of 23 games, and had 5 fouls or more in 10 of them."
I can't remember who said that but I definately didn't ignore it. However, it overall picture I see more reason to trading Asik if we get Dwight. Here's one I tweeted yesterday:
$20.5m to afford Dwight. If HOU drop Anderson, Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Ohlbrecht, Smith. Trade T-Rob. That's $19.6m... Royce White anyone?
What if no one takes Royce White? And Dwight doesn't give us a discount? We have no choice but to choose someone else to trade, and imo that just adds more reason to why trading Asik is a good idea.
wrong.....we always have Lin who can step up to the plate :lol:besides I don't know who did that math, but it's wrong
FFS,
I can definitely see your point about the regular season, I actually brought this up myself at one point, but I decided the playoffs are more important than the regular season. If we made the playoffs with Asik playing only 30 minutes, then we can definitely make the playoffs with Dwight playing only 30 minutes if that's what we want to do.
Right, most of my points revolve around success in the playoffs:
I guess I just look at it as 82 games is a long season. For Dwight to be
playing 38 to 40 minutes in the playoffs to me means he had help along
those 82 games so that he could be in good shape come playoff time.
That's where Asik comes into play (even if they keep him till the
deadline and trade him). Not to mention with Asik behind him Dwight can
play much more aggressively and if his minutes were to be limited in a
playoff game due to foul trouble then you got Asik who you know can come
in and play 25 or 30 minutes. To me it just seems like a no brainer to
try it for the first two thirds of the season and then perhaps you get
more for Asik than you would have and Dwight is fresher for the playoff
run and post season. I trust Morey has a good plan whatever it is.
Also to touch upon the "who to trade" debate I lean towards Lin over Asik for the obvious reasons. Who is better at their position? (tough to answer but you have to kick it around) Which position is easier to find servicable players to plug into a system? Which player fills more needs with the current roster? Also, did Dwight mention playing with Asik?
Trust me, I'm not being bias here. I've looked at all the information, and I've considered all the good points everyone has made. Here's one:
"In 09 playoffs Dwight fouled out 4 of 23 games, and had 5 fouls or more in 10 of them."
I can't remember who said that but I definately didn't ignore it. However, it overall picture I see more reason to trading Asik if we get Dwight. Here's one I tweeted yesterday:
$20.5m to afford Dwight. If HOU drop Anderson, Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Ohlbrecht, Smith. Trade T-Rob. That's $19.6m... Royce White anyone?
We have similar ideas rockets best fan. It took me 20 minutes to write my post above since I have been chasing my kid around this morning, he makes me a very inefficient poster.
:lol: :lol:I know the feeling
FFS,
I can definitely see your point about the regular season, I actually brought this up myself at one point, but I decided the playoffs are more important than the regular season. If we made the playoffs with Asik playing only 30 minutes, then we can definitely make the playoffs with Dwight playing only 30 minutes if that's what we want to do.
We have similar ideas rockets best fan. It took me 20 minutes to write my post above since I have been chasing my kid around this morning, he makes me a very inefficient poster.
That's a completely different discussion altogether, and imo there isn't much to discuss there. If Dwight is playing 38-40 minutes in the playoffs, that means we're paying 8.3 million for someone to play 8-10 minutes...
I know what you are saying, I guess I just look at it as 82 games is a long season. For Dwight to be playing 38 to 40 minutes in the playoffs to me means he had help along those 82 games so that he could be in good shape come playoff time. That's where Asik comes into play (even if they keep him till the deadline and trade him). Not to mention with Asik behind him Dwight can play much more aggressively and if his minutes were to be limited in a playoff game due to foul trouble then you got Asik who you know can come in and play 25 or 30 minutes. To me it just seems like a no brainer to try it for the first two thirds of the season and then perhaps you get more for Asik than you would have and Dwight is fresher for the playoff run and post season. I trust Morey has a good plan whatever it is.
That's a completely different discussion altogether, and imo there isn't much to discuss there. If Dwight is playing 38-40 minutes in the playoffs, that means we're paying 8.3 million for someone to play 8-10 minutes...
true, but we got 82 games to reach the playoffs. the more minutes we keep off D-12 the fresher he is come playoff time
That's one of my points and has been all along, they don't need to be played together. There are other 'pages' to be on that might take into account reality.
That's a completely different discussion altogether, and imo there isn't much to discuss there. If Dwight is playing 38-40 minutes in the playoffs, that means we're paying 8.3 million for someone to play 8-10 minutes...
I'm simply pointing out that they can shoot mids--as the conversation seemed to be heading towards an ideal that Howard/Asik are incapable of doing so. I will repeat that I am not endorsing an offense run through this ideal.
TTDN's request for an example of two big men without much skill winning a title has not been fulfilled because, as far as I know, it does not exist--perhaps the closest would be Dr. J and Moses Malone???? They had some skills though so doesn't really count--I only include them because the majority of their damage occurred at and around the rim which is what we would be looking at with Dwight/Omer.
I think it is short-sighted to quantify success as "winning a championship". By this criteria, Stockton and Malone did not run successful pick n rolls and those Jazz teams were a waste of time and energy. I'm not trying to twist anything, but "success" can be defined in many ways. The Clippers were successful with Griffin and Jordan this year--they got out-played in the play-offs, but that happens.
Further, I believe the Rockets' can be the exception to the rule as our personnel will be different and will balance the equation quite well. Flanking our two bruising front court players with three wing players that can knock down threes, dribble-drive, and dish will turn the front court's weaknesses into a non-factor. It will be a rare team that can both defend Dwight in the post effectively while also stifling our dribble penetration and three point shooting. The defense on our end goes without saying.
I partially agree on the bolded part due to the fact only 1 team wins every year, which is partially why I preemptively rephrased TTDN's question as follows:
"When have two big men with an unreliable jump shot EVER made it to the finals in the last 25 years?"
The way that question is phrased makes your point about the Utah Jazzinapplicable. And I disagree that the Clippers were successful this year. Ibelievethe playoffs expose weaknesses, and they clearly were exposed.
Now onto that last part where you think Rockets might be an exception. I partially agree to that too. I think the way you picture it in your head (which youillustratedin the neat little picture above) might work in the regular season, but it won't work in the playoffs where the defensive intensity is higher.
Here is an offensive set that includes Howard and Asik.
The ball starts on the left wing (presumably Harden/Lin) and from there I can envision dozens of successful plays--both inside and out. Further, about the only mid-range shots that occur from this set would be a pull-up jumper between the free throw line and the top of the key--a shot I am ok with especially with two elite rebounders crashing the glass.
Again, this is just one "package" the Rockets can employ. I think it could be brutal as it allows ample space and screening for dribble penetration, viable outlet passes for pick n rolls, open three point shooters, post offense, and space for cutters to catch quick passes and finish at the rim.
Harden can use Asik to screen over the top or go baseline and use Howard to screen his guy...from here it's just a matter of how the defense reacts and making the right play.
Say that's Parsons on the right wing...how many times is his guy going to get caught ball-watching and let Parsons slip behind him for an easy back door lay-up? I'd say enough for opposing coaches to lose their minds. What do you guys think? I see lots of potential here. Double teams will happen, but will net us many easy buckets in the process--more than they prevent in my opinion.
That's one of my points and has been all along, they don't need to be played together. There are other 'pages' to be on that might take into account reality.
Of course I do. You realize most of the debate here centers around potential offensive drawbacks?
I'm simply pointing out that they can shoot mids--as the conversation seemed to be heading towards an ideal that Howard/Asik are incapable of doing so. I will repeat that I am not endorsing an offense run through this ideal.
TTDN's request for an example of two big men without much skill winning a title has not been fulfilled because, as far as I know, it does not exist--perhaps the closest would be Dr. J and Moses Malone???? They had some skills though so doesn't really count--I only include them because the majority of their damage occurred at and around the rim which is what we would be looking at with Dwight/Omer.
I think it is short-sighted to quantify success as "winning a championship". By this criteria, Stockton and Malone did not run successful pick n rolls and those Jazz teams were a waste of time and energy. I'm not trying to twist anything, but "success" can be defined in many ways. The Clippers were successful with Griffin and Jordan this year--they got out-played in the play-offs, but that happens.
Further, I believe the Rockets' can be the exception to the rule as our personnel will be different and will balance the equation quite well. Flanking our two bruising front court players with three wing players that can knock down threes, dribble-drive, and dish will turn the front court's weaknesses into a non-factor. It will be a rare team that can both defend Dwight in the post effectively while also stifling our dribble penetration and three point shooting. The defense on our end goes without saying.
the Rockets situation is much more defensive in nature
You realize Memphis practically tied Indiana for the best defense in the league right?
perhaps more akin to what Chicago achieved defensively with Noah and Asik
We're clearly talking about playing both bigs at the same,time. I'm not sure you're on the same page here...
I trust that someone has welcomed you Rockets fan newton and I also welcome you to Red94 and yes we do take our Rockets talk very seriously here. We may not always agree with fellow forum members but we try to back up our opinions with facts, statistics and analysis in a civil manner.
I understand what you are writing 2016 when you reference the Grizzlies but I cannot really take that comparison into full consideration since the Rockets offensive focus will definitely not be the two bigs as it is in Memphis. Two completely different use of bigs, the Rockets situation is much more defensive in nature, perhaps more akin to what Chicago achieved defensively with Noah and Asik. If it were to happen (which may not since Morey likes being financially flexible) this is much more about dominating defense for 48 minutes than two bigs trying to make something work on the offensive end as a primary offensive strategy.
Aldridge is a good shooter and even he shoots only 41% from 16-23 feet (7.3 shots per game). I'm sure we can both agree Dwight will never be the shooter Aldridge is right?
I understand the point you're making, but the day I like Dwight or Asik taking jump shots is the day pigs fly. Sorry.
Small sample size exaggerate effects.
You can argue that Millsap's 82 shots in that corner (72 2's and 10 3's) are not a large enough sample size, but it's a much, MUCH, bigger sample size than what you're looking at with Dwight's and Asik's mid-range attempts.
Also, keep in mind that Dwight and Asik are WIDE open when taking those shots. And there's a reason why they're wide open.
I agree with all of this and did acknowledge the small sample sizes the first time. If they can knock down wide open looks then let them take them. Eventually, the league will have to respect it and then we're in business. Isn't this the plan?
As I said before, I am referencing Dwight's previous two years--before the shoulder injury. Here is 2010-2011's shot chart:
....and here is 2011-2012...
While those sample sizes are small I clearly see some aptitude--especially on the right baseline from 2010-11. That's 50% on 29-58 shooting. That counts in my book.
Here is Omer's shot chart from last year...
Now that's a small sample size, but he still did it. After he made that 22 footer (I forget against who this year) I remember one of his teammates being interviewed after the game and asked about that shot he replied something like this, "Omer practices those shots everyday so it didn't surprise me one bit to see it go in". Again, I'm not saying we should make it the focal point of the offense, but let's not make it out like them making a mid-range shot is rarer than unicorn sightings :P
First, you must not have clicked on the links I posted---they clearly show an aptitude for shooting well from certain spots in the mid-range. Much like your statement above about Paul Millsap--you can't lump them all together, but each seems to have their spots. I'm not arguing that they are great mid-range shooters like West, Bosh, or Aldridge; however, those shot charts clearly show that they have their spots like Haslem on the baseline in Miami. Heck, Dwight has a season where he shot 50% on corner threes :o Granted, it was 1-2 on corner threes, but he did it. I think people are low-balling these guys skills a little too much. They're never going to be amazing mid-range shooters, but they can shoot from there--especially if the other guy is crashing the boards :)
FSS, I agree. Asik's trade value isn't going anywhere but up. His defense is a known commodity. He has also shown an ability to stay healthy (knock on wood). His offense is expanding and should be considered suitable at worst.
In a league that is evolving towards more and more dribble penetration having a stout defensive front line is crucial. We experienced it this season with our own team. We struggled more often than not against teams with excellent rim protectors. Having two of the best on one team is ridiculous. Side by side they afford us the luxury of not sagging off the wings anymore (which we did too much of in my opinion) and we can contest three pointers much better. Perhaps it is a catastrophe on offense playing them together. After 50 games I think we'll know and we can ship Asik out and still get max value. It's a great position to be in.
Small sample size exaggerate effects.
You can argue that Millsap's 82 shots in that corner (72 2's and 10 3's) are not a large enough sample size, but it's a much, MUCH, bigger sample size than what you're looking at with Dwight's and Asik's mid-range attempts.
Also, keep in mind that Dwight and Asik are WIDE open when taking those shots. And there's a reason why they're wide open.
well said JG..........totally agree
According to www.hoopdata.com they both suck at shooting mid-range shots. Lets not kid ourselves, no one is going to respect their shot.
First, you must not have clicked on the links I posted---they clearly show an aptitude for shooting well from certain spots in the mid-range. Much like your statement above about Paul Millsap--you can't lump them all together, but each seems to have their spots. I'm not arguing that they are great mid-range shooters like West, Bosh, or Aldridge; however, those shot charts clearly show that they have their spots like Haslem on the baseline in Miami. Heck, Dwight has a season where he shot 50% on corner threes :o Granted, it was 1-2 on corner threes, but he did it. I think people are low-balling these guys skills a little too much. They're never going to be amazing mid-range shooters, but they can shoot from there--especially if the other guy is crashing the boards :)
FSS, I agree. Asik's trade value isn't going anywhere but up. His defense is a known commodity. He has also shown an ability to stay healthy (knock on wood). His offense is expanding and should be considered suitable at worst.
In a league that is evolving towards more and more dribble penetration having a stout defensive front line is crucial. We experienced it this season with our own team. We struggled more often than not against teams with excellent rim protectors. Having two of the best on one team is ridiculous. Side by side they afford us the luxury of not sagging off the wings anymore (which we did too much of in my opinion) and we can contest three pointers much better. Perhaps it is a catastrophe on offense playing them together. After 50 games I think we'll know and we can ship Asik out and still get max value. It's a great position to be in.
Maybe, but just as in the other board, we'll have to wait and see.
there are no guarantees, but it won't hurt to look
Have you heard of the verticality rule? Or rotations? I just think that it would have been done by now if it was feasible.
I think you underestimate the potential of this line up. besides this lineup isn't going to be on the floor all the time, but when it is I expect it to be very good offensively and defensely
But one is camped outside while the other is inside. They aren't camped together as Asik and Dwight would be.
who says both howard and asik will be camped out in the paint? they can work just like z-bo and gasol.....howard on the block....asik on the baseline....if they double howard with asik's man asik can roll to the basket for a dunk....problem solved
Gasol has a pretty good elbow jumper. Zbo can shoot as well.
true, but both their games are still primarily in the paint
I think he means 2 bigs with NO shot.
Dwight averaged 0.6 shots per game from 10-23 feet this season, and Asik averaged 0.3. So neither guy has really proven you need to respect their shot.
Why is no one giving examples of two bigs working together?
there are plenty of examples...........Otis thorp and dream, david robinson and tim Duncan. z-bo and gasol need I go on? also if you mean without either having a killer outside shot I don't think z-bo and gasol are burning up the charts from outside. they shoot one every now and then, but both their games are primarily inside
I'm talking about the corner 3's, but you're lumping in all 3's...
Millsap's shotchart:
Call me crazy, but I think Millsap can shoot from the corner just from looking at this. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right, but I don't think I'm being that crazy here.
He made 51% of his corner long 2's out of around 100 shots this season, and he has been hitting from that spot year after year. I don't see why he can't just take two steps back and knock down corner 3's, for whatever it's worth he made 6 out of 10 corner 3's this season. Imo he can make that shot if he has a wide open look which he will get alot of in our system.
Right, that's what you'd think, except then you see guys like Chris Bosh who hits 50% from 18 feet but 20% from 3.
He's a career .274 3 shooter and a very polished 7 year vet, you'd think now isn't exactly the likely time for him to start showing something he hasn't shown in 7 freaking year
Durant is not big or strong enough to get around Asik to front him. And if he does end up in front of him it is an easy offensive rebound. And West is more mobile that Howard? I don't see it when Howard was healthy.
I invite everyone to visit www.vorped.com and look at Dwight's shot charts from previous seasons (pre-injury). They seem to show that while he does not shoot from mid-range often (when you're Dwight why would you?), but that when he does he can do it fairly well. Presuming he returns healthy next season I see no reason to believe he can't continue to do the same.
Looks like the same is true for Omer Asik. Is it possible these guys are more competent than we think when it comes to shooting from mid-range?
I recognize the mostly small sample sizes (although some are surprising), but clearly they were successful shooting from mid....
According to www.hoopdata.com they both suck at shooting mid-range shots. Lets not kid ourselves, no one is going to respect their shot.
I invite everyone to visit www.vorped.com and look at Dwight's shot charts from previous seasons (pre-injury). They seem to show that while he does not shoot from mid-range often (when you're Dwight why would you?), but that when he does he can do it fairly well. Presuming he returns healthy next season I see no reason to believe he can't continue to do the same.
Looks like the same is true for Omer Asik. Is it possible these guys are more competent than we think when it comes to shooting from mid-range?
I recognize the mostly small sample sizes (although some are surprising), but clearly they were successful shooting from mid....
While your statement is true, those line-ups comprise only 15% of the total you posted. The actual percentage is likely even less as there are other line-ups not listed there. It's not that the numbers are wrong, but if it is so good why use it so little?
Consider it exhibit A to why Scott Brooks is an overrated coach.
Btw that's a really good question TTDN asked.
While your statement is true, those line-ups comprise only 15% of the total you posted. The actual percentage is likely even less as there are other line-ups not listed there. It's not that the numbers are wrong, but if it is so good why use it so little?
Durant already plays the 4 more often than you think.
3 of the most common line-ups the Thunder use involve Durant at the 4 so it's not like it's never done. And as you can see, the offense goes up more than the defense goes down.
Battier also had a 6'8" 270 LBS linebacker playing the three who could guard the 4. Durant has Kevin Martin.If Battier can play PF then Durant can.
In the words of Daryl Morey (in regards to small-ball): "The defense will go down, but the offense will go up more than the defense will go down".
I disagree......Durrant is too light in the donkey :lol: to play the four full time. he may have the height, but he doesn't have the lower body strength to match up with western conference PFs
If Battier can play PF then Durant can.
In the words of Daryl Morey (in regards to most small-ball line-ups): "The defense goes down, but the offense goes up more than the defense goes down".
West isn't a rim protector and is at least slightly mobile, and still Allen got open looks he was just cold that series. Mike miller came in a lit them up.and asik would be easy for Durant to guard he could just front him and asik couldn't catch the neccesary lob pass in
Thabo plays the 3 in their small ball line-up, but that isn't the point. David West was guarding Ray Allen in the Pacers/Heat series. It's not like Thabo puts the ball on the ground and tries to drive by people. I don't want Howard that far from the basket, but the trade-off on the other end could be huge. There is no way Durant could guard Asik. He would never be able to get around him. Asik's legs weight more than Durant. I think McHale could teach Asik a seal. Watching the Pacers/Heat series, it was the Heat who had to make the adjustment because they couldn't guard West/Hibbert. Not the other way around.
as for the way we would match up to OKC.............our small lineup did the most damage in the playoffs so I doubt they will go that route first. they are likely to try and match up with us using perk and ibaka first
I see Perkins getting alot less time in the future. Moving forward we will see more and more Ibaka at the 5 with Durant at the 4.
And the same thing could be said twisted around, Asik is going to score less points than almost anyone who guards him.
I disagree......Durrant is too light in the donkey :lol: to play the four full time. he may have the height, but he doesn't have the lower body strength to match up with western conference PFs
I see Perkins getting alot less time in the future. Moving forward we will see more and more Ibaka at the 5 with Durant at the 4.
And the same thing could be said twisted around, Asik is going to score less points than almost anyone who guards him.
And Durant is going to score more points than anyone who guards him.
Asik would not be guarding Durant. He would be guarding Ibaka. Parsons would be guarding Durant.
Durant would score more points on Asik than Asik would score on Durant. That match-up doesn't favor us at all.
Thabo plays the 3 in their small ball line-up, but that isn't the point. David West was guarding Ray Allen in the Pacers/Heat series. It's not like Thabo puts the ball on the ground and tries to drive by people. I don't want Howard that far from the basket, but the trade-off on the other end could be huge. There is no way Durant could guard Asik. He would never be able to get around him. Asik's legs weight more than Durant. I think McHale could teach Asik a seal. Watching the Pacers/Heat series, it was the Heat who had to make the adjustment because they couldn't guard West/Hibbert. Not the other way around.
Thabo just camps at the 3pt line. Why would you have the team's best paint protector camping out at the 3pt line?
Lol guard a SG????
agreed......Howard on a guard is not good defense.
I would be fine with giving a Howard asik frontline a chance but logic mostly says it won't work. If teams don't like their pf matchup with asik or Howard defending they can just go small and have an sf play the 4 which would most likely force us to go small and you take asik out, if you for example guard melo or Durant or any 6-8 or so sf that can move around and shoot with Howard or asik they will get worn out fast and give up loads of 3s and be too tired to rebound well not to mention be out of postion from running around screens and all that good stuff to try and prevent them from getting open looks. Yeah sure you could go zone but most teams don't run zones because they don't work, teams almost always have 2 good 3pt shooters so if they are even average as a team in ball movement they will still kill you from 3. When the rockets have huge holes at backup SG sf and no real 6th man, trading asik would easily fill at least 2 of those holes with quality backups. Asik and howard are just too one dimensional to be an effective frontline in my opinion they can easily taken advantage of with minor changes in scheme or lineups not to mention just regular Pfs that can beat them.
I disagree it won't work. besides how will we really know without looking at it? there are cases where it has worked and case where it hasn't, but to say it won't work without at least looking.........that would be unwise
Should be easy. May not be. I didn't watch a lot of that series, but did Dwight and Gasol play a lot together? I know during the regular season when I watched they didn't. Either way, it is irrelevant. It may or may not work, but unless they get blown away with a trade offer they need to keep them both at least to start. Again, they are only playing like 12 minutes together anyway unless it is really working, and then you play it more.
And I don't believe for a second that Howard should guard Durant. But let him guard Thabo.
A double team doesn't always result in favorable odds for the offense, especially if the guy getting doubled isn't a great facilitator. Just look at round 1, Lakers vs Spurs, Dwight was doubled pretty much every time and you would probably think Pau Gasol would get a bunch of easy baskets as a result right? Well, he didn't... I'm just saying it's not as easy as you make it sound.
2016. About your videos. In the first, they are playing 2 bigs and doubling. You want team to double. Then you are playing 4 on 3 on the rest of the court. The second one w/ the Heat they are playing 2 big. Dampier and Bosh are on the floor and none of those plays were in the half court. Asik is HUGE. Getting around him is more difficult that almost any NBA player. If we can teach him a spin seal Melo, etc. wouldn't be able to get around him.
@thejohnnygold
I agree D-12 has good post moves......I don't know where the statement (howard has no low post moves) comes from. he looks very capable to me.
This is what Dwight brings to the table in the post. We're not talking about DeAndre Jordan here. Dwight can be a one-man offense. If they double team then that means open shooters outside. Some say Dwight can't pass well...I think he can pass well enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slOlB_LfB-o
This second video is a little grainy but showcases more of Dwight's all around abilities. CAUTION: the soundtrack is Eminem so mute it if you don't like some adult language or his music in general.
Dwigjt is a lil better then Greg Smith down low..they would have to play a lot closer..and we keep thanking like this would happen all game..they won't even start Asik I don't think..10-15 against their big line up..Dwight can slow down almost anyone..we get almost every reb down low..I would take a bet that we have a positive plus/minus when they play together for a short time..yes if we played 40 min with both of them it would end up catching up on us..but for 15 min they will only score shooting 3s and we get a lot of off reb..my main argument for not keeping Asik is that we need a starting pf more then a back up center..I would use a vet min on a center or draft one to play 15 min a game..but for sure those two would be horrid on off on the floor at the same time..but just feed Howard every play..have all 3 point shooters other then those two..we will not have guardsin the paint let him kick out to hem if he is double teamed..have Asik rdy for the off reb opposite side.it could work and I promise tey would have problems scoring every play on Dwight..he is really athleticGood point, Melo would be guarding Asik.
Some people might argue that we have to worry more about teams in the West, Well, just look at game 1 vs the Thunder for an example of how the floor spacing would be horrible, we got destroyed 120 to 91 starting Asik and Greg Smith together. Ibaka was camping at the basket and guys were scared to drive. Our shooters couldn't get open looks because there was no penetration. Wouldn't the same thing happen if we played Dwight and Asik together?
For the record, the only thing I was addressing was offensive rebounding. It was in response to this statement.
You said yourself at one point that we are an elite rebounding team and there isn't much room for improvement. The upside to grabbing a couple more rebounds per game won't offset the drop in offensive efficiency. Just look at how horrible we were in game 1 when we started asik and Smith together ..
With Dwight and asik the results will be similar. The defense will go up, but the offense will go down more than the defense will go up
I agree that the defensive rebounding will only see marginal improvements, but the offensive side should see huge gains--and offensive rebounds make for a lot of easy buckets/fouls. That's a good thing.
I do believe that Asik and Howard crashing the offensive boards would be a very good thing.
I've got a question for everyone (especially JD):
Which front line do you think will score more points?
This has nothing to do with what I said--I was solely talking rebounds. Also, the better question is which front line would have the best scoring margin.
http://tracking.si.com/2013/06/09/rockets-dwight-howard-chris-paul/?sct=obnetwork
Going by PER for Milsap is pointless since he's not going to score the same if we're using him as a stretch 4. as well as TS% for the same reason, again, he just hasn't shown that he's a really a guy that can knock down shots in catch and pop or from the outside in general.
He made 51% of his corner long 2's out of around 100 shots this season, and he has been hitting from that spot year after year. I don't see why he can't just take two steps back and knock down corner 3's, for whatever it's worth he made 6 out of 10 corner 3's this season. Imo he can make that shot if he has a wide open look which he will get alot of in our system.
Having Terrence Jones as your back-up center isn't "tanking your 2nd unit" imo. And whether or not Millsap is a an improvement by a "small margin" is debatable. Just going off PER and TS% the improvement could be pretty significant, and I think Millsap would be better in our system than he has been in the Jazz system. Don't forget that in my scenario, we also get 3 second round picks in this year's draft (could be alot of second round sleepers) and a 1st round pick in next year's draft (very good draft).
p.s. I'm glad you found a video that pointed out how good Millsap is defensively. People seem to think he's a bad defender and that couldn't be further from the truth, outside of post-defense he's actually a very good defender. I was going to mention this but it would be a very hard thing for me to prove.
I think it is, because anchoring a D is not the same as just shot blocking, Jones hasn't shown the ability to really grab top rate rebound, and frankly 270ish minutes on the floor isn't enough of a sample size for anything. combined with his D-League and College numbers I'd say he's definitely a good weakside shot blocker , that neither means he can catch up to NBA defense speed already let alone be the center piece that control it.
Let's just say this, I KNOW Asik will be a great defender on the 2nd or any unit, with T-Jones I think there's a 20% chance he's good, 20% chance he's average, and 40% chance he's a disaster as a primary backup C, and remember, this is a guy your going to give 40-50% of the season's minutes to.
Going by PER for Milsap is pointless since he's not going to score the same if we're using him as a stretch 4. as well as TS% for the same reason, again, he just hasn't shown that he's a really a guy that can knock down shots in catch and pop or from the outside in general. he's defensively sound I definitely agree with that (and the fact that the Jazz still suck defensively gives a lot of ways to why good PF don't make up for bad Cs, Jefferson was a total disaster defensively. that it completely washed away all his offensive value.)
Here's the catch, if you think Jones is good enough to be a 2nd unit C defensively, why isn't he good enough to be a 1st unit PF defensively? As I pointed out, whoever plays the 4 next year for us if one of Dwight or Paul signs, isn't going to get many chances to score, especially not on isolation plays, so if you figure Jones is roughly comparable with Millsap defensively (I don't, at least not next year, maybe the year after that.) then why not just go with Jones as the starter as the offense isn't going to differ much anyway and Jones will take a outside shot too (as comic as some of those shots he take looks.)
At the end of the day Jones at center seems to be to be only doable in a super small lineup. in the rather limited time he didn't show enough of a defensive rebound ability to really make a center (it's considerably worse than Smith.) he can block shots, but really, how many shots can you block a game normally? him at the backup C seem to be a pure offensive approach, if that's the case then going for Smith would still make more sense since he's considerably more efficient scorer.
Melo would score more points on Dwight than Dwight would score on Melo imo. It's easy to double Dwight because he doesn't pass out of double teams very well.
I think the counter point is that defending Melo is more of a concept than a practice, having a Serge Ibaka on him still won't do much good if his shots are falling. you might be better off just securing the paint and hope his shots don't fall .
This is true for alot of those elite guys, Paul George didn't really guard Lebron either, he still scored a ton, what did prevent Lebron at least a little was actually Hibbert, he would at least force Lebron to be doing that 30 from jumpers he makes 50-60% of the time and not layups. that he makes 120% of the time.
Defense in the NBA isn't really 1 on 1 with a shot blocker though, not this day and age, you look at the league, teams that really still just match whoever's playing your defense 1 on 1 basically make up the bottom 5 hopeless teams of doom like the Bobcats.
Against the Knicks, if we use that as example, you surely have Parsons go 1 on 1 with Melo anyway, regardless if you have a PF or not (unless you have Josh Smith.) the thing with the Knicks this year though is that they surrounded him with nothing but shooters (outside of Tyson Chandler obviously) But you can still really play a zone that cuts away the high percentage 3 areas. or you just guard him with a Asik and stay away from him enough that basically baits him to take long 2. The weird thing with Melo is that open shot and contested shots don't make a huge amount of difference to him, if that's the case, why not just leave him open? he shoots 44% there which is very good for long 2s and that's still just 0.8 pts per play not including turnovers and unlikely to get fouls, you take that every day from the opposing #1 guy.
Against other teams, there are usually guys you can leave open anyway. OKC for example, you want to dare Westbrook to take the jumper by just packing the paint to no end. If Westbrook is taking jumpers instead of steam rolilng to the rim you take that every day .
I think people forget that the Rockets were sending Asik out to chase LaMarcus Aldrich / Dirk around almost every game they played against those teams anyway.
Defensively I think the problem is far less , there may be certain matchups where it doesn't work on particular days, offensively I can see the problem more but figure if we're not using it as the primary lineup who cares, the reason why you have special lineup is precisely because they have certain holes that would be problematic in the longer run to begin with.
That's kind of my point though, there are so many possibilities. In your head it's like "just give it to the big man Melo's guarding in the post and that's an easy dunk" but I doubt it's that easy, there's pass denial, double teams, rotation defense, fronting with a team mate who can disrupt overhead passes from behind, box and one, tons of ways the defense can adjust and tons of ways the offense can mess up. Like someone mentioned earlier, Melo would probably be guarding Asik not Dwight, and Randolph's post game is miles better than Asik's so Dwight's athleticism is a moot point. I admit you're right about this being just one game, but there are plenty of examples where a size advantage in the post didn't result in easy dunks all game. I don't know if bringing up all those examples will change anything though..
Maybe if we could get videos involved that would make things more interesting. Here's the Celtics guarding Aldridge:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rTUyawvxGE
Notice how there's always a second defender ready to help baseline if Aldridge tried to spin? If that help defender was guarding a three point shooter he wouldn't be there.
Here's a look at how Miami's small ball line-up defended the Grizzlies:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWzO9RI_y7g
If it was all about size then Zach Randolph should have a field day every time against the Heat, but he doesn't.
I'd say that was more of a guard problem than their fault. Look how many shots the guards took. Also, Melo went 8-20 from the field and scored only 22 points. Additionally, there is a difference in athleticism. Gasol and Randolph are good bigs, but neither of them can just over a phone book. A healthy Howard catches the ball over the box and dunks it. Those two have a hard time grabbing rim (hyperbole). And picking one game doesn't really prove anything to me. Their other game against the Knicks they had 44 point combined. There may be something to it, but there may not be. Hard to know based on one game.
If it was so easy, either Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol should have combined for more than 16 points in this game:http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278781
Knicks didn't even have their starting center that game. Their frontline consisted of a PF and SF.
I do feel like it is relatively easy basketball. And I didn't think I was playing GM. More coach... haha
You make it sound so easy.
Sorry forgot to add. When you play a big like Dwight Howard you have to always have a body on him. Therefore Ibaka would have to be closer to him. If not you throw a lob to him, or tell your guards that a miss lay-up (not a blocked one) is an assist.
If Melo guards Asik run a pick and roll w/ him. It'll be a dunk. Asik doesn't need an offensive game against them. Just be able to catch and finish. Additionally, Asik would literally just have to stand under the basket and dunk it. All those little guys would not be able to get around him. If the team goes ridiculously small and it doesn't work you take Asik off the floor until they go big again. Play 1 at a time when they are big. If they each play 30 minutes a game they are on the floor at the same time for 12 minutes I think. All the best players rest about that much. That's when you play both if 2 bigs is not working. Lets also not forget that Greg Smith is no Dwight Howard.
Good point, Melo would be guarding Asik.
Some people might argue that we have to worry more about teams in the West, Well, just look at game 1 vs the Thunder for an example of how the floor spacing would be horrible, we got destroyed 120 to 91 starting Asik and Greg Smith together. Ibaka was camping at the basket and guys were scared to drive. Our shooters couldn't get open looks because there was no penetration. Wouldn't the same thing happen if we played Dwight and Asik together?
Melo would score more points on Dwight than Dwight would score on Melo imo. It's easy to double Dwight because he doesn't pass out of double teams very well.
On the other side. None of those guys could guard Howard either, and they would potentially pick up a lot of fouls trying to guard him. Point would be had against those guys on the offensive glass. I do think Howard could guard Melo. He takes a lot of jumpshots these days, and scores a lot from the post. Howard would have to get help on dribble drives but so would anyone on the Rockets. LaMarcus is more of a jumpshooting PF. It's not like he puts the ball on the ground and beats people off the dribble. Against LeBron he obviously couldn't guard him, but he could guard Battier/Miller/Random 3 guy. Howard is more athletic than David West and he was able to do it. GSW will not have Barnes play that much PF. Lee was their best player for a lot of last year. Jack or Landry will be gone. Their line-up will look like Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Lee, Bogut. And against OKC, same thing as the Heat. He can guard Thabo if need be. I much more worried offensively (although I think it can work) than defensively with this group. Additionally, most of these teams don't play that small for a majority of the game. When they go small we could easily only have one guy out there for that 20 minutes of the game.
B would score more points. It would also be the better defensive team.
Bold, but not crazy so I like it. There's definitely a good case that can be made there.
B would score more points. It would also be the better defensive team.I've got a question for everyone (especially JD):
Which front line do you think will score more points?
I just have a problem with this statement:
I agree that the defensive rebounding will only see marginal improvements, but the offensive side should see huge gains--and offensive rebounds make for a lot of easy buckets/fouls. That's a good thing.
Which is why I asked the question.
I've got a question for everyone (especially JD):
Which front line do you think will score more points?
front lineA is better defensively.......front lineB is better offensively, but the great thing is we can run either lineup according to how the game we areplaying is going to gain the advantage.
I've got a question for everyone (especially JD):
Front line A: Dwight, Asik, Parsons, Harden, Lin
Front line B: Dwight, Terrence Jones, Parsons, Harden, Lin
Which front line do you think will score more points?
I agree that the defensive rebounding will only see marginal improvements, but the offensive side should see huge gains--and offensive rebounds make for a lot of easy buckets/fouls. That's a good thing.
I'm just saying "that's fair" but my opinion hasn't changed, there's just no point in arguing about it when everything has already been said.
Some people made fair points, some people made very aggressive points, but it's not about "getting the point" and agreeing with each other. We're just here to have a fun discussion and that's what we did. The end.
yes I can read exactly how wishy washy you are on this subject. however you seem to have a mental block in all of the previous times this point has been stated and yet this time you seem to get the point. that's my point
The question in my mind is whether or not Dwight will still want to sign if we trade Asik to make room, didn't Dwight say he wants to play with Asik? If that's the case then I think we keep Asik at least for now, we can trade Asik in the next off-season or before the deadline. One thing is for sure, by 2015 Asik will have a starting role and a bigger contract--whether or not that's in Houston depends on Dwight.
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Yes, I've been on both sides of the fence when it comes to whether or not we should keep Asik. There is always more than one perspective and I make an effort of acknowledging that from time to time, although sometimes I get narrow minded too like we all do (some more than others). Here are some of my thoughts:
- We could keep Asik until the trade deadline. There are about 50 regular season games before the deadline, and pacing Dwight for those 50 games could really pay off in the playoffs.
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We're probably going to keep Asik at least until we get a REALLY good offer, and Morey probably also wants to see how much our PF's have improved since the off-season so he has a better idea of our needs.
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That's fair.
what's this? we been arguing this point for days and as soon as Johnny Rocket says it you get it? not knocking you Johnny Rocket, but we got 9 pages of argument and in the middle of the ninth page you get the point we have been making since pages1. say it ain't so :lol:
That's fair.
The answer is: we don't know. Maybe Asik and Howard can play together, maybe not. So why not try it out and see what works? If it doesn't pan out, we'll have to be content with the best back-up center in the league and patiently wait for the best deal possible. There will be no rush on our end, and Asik's value will not substantially decrease. He's the proverbial double-double machine.
You all have great points I think what is important is that Asik would come off the bench. He would only play with Dwight 10-15 min a game..and yes it would be to Clogged up and yes they both can not pass well..and yes they would be sick down low on def(I believe Dwight could guard some of the better stretch 4s in the game). But if u think that they could win on a comsitant basis playing 40 min together u are crazy. There is no other big in the game I can think of a worse center to pair next to Dwight on Off them Asik. He literally just gets in the way. Can't pass catch passes or shoot well at all. But or 10-15 which in my mind makes it ok to keep Asik those two could work on the floor at the same time. Which would give Dwight 35 mi a game which is great. And Asik like 28-30 which isn't o much less min then where he is now
I agree. I am not advocating running Asik and Howard side by side all game long--I guess that gets lost in everything else. Like you said, for 10-15 minutes a game it gives us a very different look that I think will be hard to match. Dwight is going to want some post touches--why not keep Asik on the other side of the post during that stretch? He can corral rebounds and prevent the weakside shot blocker from coming over as he has to box out Asik. At this point, if they want to double Howard it has to come from the perimeter--which means a pass out from Howard (which he can do) and swing it around the perimeter for the open 3. This works within our offensive philosophy and is largely the same offense the Rockets ran during our championship runs. Thorpe would be Asik, Hakeem is Howard, and Maxwell, Cassell, and Kenny Smith, etc. are Harden/Lin/Parsons, etc. Now before everyone gets upset about me comparing Hakeem to Howard (I agree it's not even close)--all I'm saying is he can score in the post at a solid percentage and, when healthy, requires a double team--like Hakeem.
To take the analogy further, Harden can be what Drexler was once he stepped in--a relentless driver to the rim that often pulls up and shoots the 3-ball. This twist on the offense still works well as defenses must begin collapsing on the drives and Harden can just drop off easy passes left or right depending on who is open and which way he goes--by having two outlet passes available on the baseline the defense cannot afford to shade one way or the other and it will make Harden's job easier. If you guys don't like that then go back to the high screen where Asik instead of rolling to the other side (where Howard would be) rolls behind Harden, as a trailer, and can get an easy drop off pass or go up for a good rebounding opportunity with Howard--who doesn't want Asik and Howard crashing the boards at the same time?
It would be great if one of those two could consistently shoot mids--or even threes--but it's not the end of the world. They have so much talent in the other departments that I think things still work in our favor. And again, it's only 10-15 minutes per game....and those 10-15 minutes our opponents will not be scoring much so even if the offense bogs down a little (which it shouldn't if we feed Dwight in the post during that time) we should still come out ahead. Remember, this means that one of Dwight/Asik will be working against a PF down low--that spells advantage to me.
Jefferson can score consistently in the post--that is all. Sometimes you just need a bucket--and he can do that. That was my point.
I checked each of their shot charts before listing them at vorped.com. Feel free to do the same. Lopez shoots 42% from the corner--and that is his only decent spot. I didn't realize you meant that they just shoot from mid--I presumed you meant shoot well. Varejao shot 34% from mid in 2011-12...didn't count last year as he barely played....just checked it...on 86 mid-range shots he made 42%. I'm really unconcerned with those guys..only concerned with Dwight and Omer.
I love how I am repeatedly told that bigs who can shoot further away from the basket create better spacing. Believe it or not, I am aware of this phenomenon. I think it is not nearly as crucial as others do.
I will counter with this: there is a reason Lebron has spent the last two and a half years working on his post game. Further, there is a reason Al Jefferson is still in the league despite not playing much defense.
hey JG past that baton for a minute :lol:..........totally agree talent is more important than how tall the team is. small ball orbig ball, neither will be a success without talented players. I don't know why everyone is inpanic mode over asik/D12 combo. I see everything from trade asik to we don't want D-12 to 8 mil is to much for a backup......relax guys. any coach would love to have problems like that(to many 7 footers). I have faith our coaching staff will figure out a way to best use all of our assets. I disagree with all who believe asik and D-12 can't coexist. what happen to the keep D-12 fresh for the playoffs discussion? Imo you guys are blowing this subject way way out of proportion
Your counters are moot points. What does Lebron developing a post game have to do with the fact a tandem of skill-less bigs have never even made it to the finals in the last 30 years? I can't remember a duo that made it to the conference finals. Not to mention Lebron only posts up on 12.4% of his possessions, there's so much more to his game and his team that makes him and the Heat successful.
And Al Jefferson takes more long 2's than any other big man in the league not named Aldridge so how is that a relevant example at all? Not to mention he's not exactly a model of success...
I checked each of their shot charts before listing them at vorped.com. Feel free to do the same. Lopez shoots 42% from the corner--and that is his only decent spot. I didn't realize you meant that they just shoot from mid--I presumed you meant shoot well. Varejao shot 34% from mid in 2011-12...didn't count last year as he barely played....just checked it...on 86 mid-range shots he made 42%. I'm really unconcerned with those guys..only concerned with Dwight and Omer.
I love how I am repeatedly told that bigs who can shoot further away from the basket create better spacing. Believe it or not, I am aware of this phenomenon. I think it is not nearly as crucial as others do.
I will counter with this: there is a reason Lebron has spent the last two and a half years working on his post game. Further, there is a reason Al Jefferson is still in the league despite not playing much defense.
Several of those guys you listed do have an outside shooting game. Brook Lopez from the corner for instance. Blake Griffin is inconsistent from the outside but does take a number of outside shots. Varejao has a decent mid-range jumper. Hibbert and Monroe are much better from the outside than D12 or Asik.Dwight Howard, Omer Asik, Brook Lopez, Anderson Varejao, Chris Andersen, Roy Hibbert, Andre Drummond, Tyson Chandler, Nene, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Greg Monroe, Larry Sanders, Tiago Splitter, Reggie Evans, Nikola Pekovic, Demarcus Cousins, John Henson, Amir Johnson....
I'd say that's a decent list. You're right--they can't shoot a 15 ft. jumper very well. However, they rebound, defend, and can finish at the rim better than most other players. Few players possess a complete skill set. So, would having two of these guys be detrimental? It depends on how you use them.
Brooklyn uses Evans and Lopez together. Griffin and Jordan work together. Nene and Okafor (who can only hit from two spots--otherwise useless from mid-range) works well. Maybe they are exceptions that prove the rule...I think it's more a matter of how the players are utilized within the offense.
With Harden, Lin, and Parsons on the perimeter taking most of the shots it makes sense to have two bigs that can set good screens and dominate the glass. Also, Howard can score in the post. Add the stellar defense we'd be playing and I like our chances. Plus, should a mis-match appear it's not like we don't have guys we can sub in the game to counter-act that. I think we're all counting on D-Mo coming back much improved...he's kind of gotten lost in the shuffle lately, but if he can re-find his shooting stroke that gives us another huge mis-match against any team that could possibly out-muscle us.
Dwight and Asik don't have the skills to co-exist, even if you ignore shooting ability, you can't ignore the fact that neither of the two are good enough at passing out of double teams. If you disagree that's fine, but that's just my opinion.
First, you meant Washington with Nene and Okafor--and they were quite good once Wall got healthy--they can be a 4-5 seed in the East next year.
Second, this goes back to my point that it's about talent--not the system. None of those players are named Dwight.
Also, those teams lost because they couldn't play the requisite level of defense, but their opponents did. Howard and Asik will be like a castle with a moat and alligators around the paint--big difference.
I'm not saying "copying" these teams is a good idea. I was merely responding to Rocketrick's request for players that can't shoot mids but are valuable to their teams. I think we can take the talents on a squad of Harden, Lin, Parsons, Howard, and Asik (with Bev, Jones, Smith, Anderson, D-MO, etc. off the bench) and then construct a game plan that will definitely be top 10 in both offense and defense and will likely be top 5 in both. Teams with those characteristics tend to do very, very well. Most nights we will have at least 2, and usually three mis-matches on offense to exploit. On defense, we will dominate the paint forcing teams to beat us with jump shots. We will also possess a Spurs-like flexibility to match up with teams that want to go small, or big, or whatever. We will still have three point shooters on the floor--and with the defense sagging down in the paint they will feast on open looks. What's not to like?
Brooklyn uses Evans and Lopez together. And lost despite being the favorites going in.
Denver uses Koufos and Faried together. And lost despite being the favorites going in.
L.A. Clippers uses Griffin and Jordan together. And lost to a team that got swept in the next round.
New Orleans uses Nene and Okafor. Didn't even make the playoffs.
I'm not really seeing why you think copying these teams is a good idea...
edit: Houston used Asik and Greg Smith together in round 1--got DESTROYED--I just felt like adding that for whatever it's worth.
Dwight Howard, Omer Asik, Brook Lopez, Anderson Varejao, Chris Andersen, Roy Hibbert, Andre Drummond, Tyson Chandler, Nene, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Greg Monroe, Larry Sanders, Tiago Splitter, Reggie Evans, Nikola Pekovic, Demarcus Cousins, John Henson, Amir Johnson....
I'd say that's a decent list. You're right--they can't shoot a 15 ft. jumper very well. However, they rebound, defend, and can finish at the rim better than most other players. Few players possess a complete skill set. So, would having two of these guys be detrimental? It depends on how you use them.
Brooklyn uses Evans and Lopez together. Griffin and Jordan work together. Nene and Okafor (who can only hit from two spots--otherwise useless from mid-range) works well. Maybe they are exceptions that prove the rule...I think it's more a matter of how the players are utilized within the offense.
With Harden, Lin, and Parsons on the perimeter taking most of the shots it makes sense to have two bigs that can set good screens and dominate the glass. Also, Howard can score in the post. Add the stellar defense we'd be playing and I like our chances. Plus, should a mis-match appear it's not like we don't have guys we can sub in the game to counter-act that. I think we're all counting on D-Mo coming back much improved...he's kind of gotten lost in the shuffle lately, but if he can re-find his shooting stroke that gives us another huge mis-match against any team that could possibly out-muscle us.
If going small can easily negate big men, most teams wouldn't even be playing centers anymore. I'm finding these argument increasingly difficult to comprehend, there are trade offs, but most people seem to vastly magnify one side of the trade off and negate the other completely.
First off, fast break points very very rarely comes when you make the basket on the other side. and if it did it's usually one of the guards the F ed up anyway. I can't recall all year if I ever seen a PF being the lead breaker on those surprise outlet play, it just doesn't happen since even those stretch 4s aren't going to outrun the wings / guards.
Fast break points mostly come from turn overs, our guys coughed up a billion of them this year which was one of the biggest issue, certainly Lin by default gets the biggest blame, but all the starting 4 chucked up well above average shares of it, it's a matter of these guys aren't super experienced, haven't played a long time together, and the fast pace in general.
In these situation, whether the 4 is a stretch or a clumsy olf makes no difference, even if it's the former your not going to outrun a guard who has such a huge lead on you anyway, if anything, some folks who know there shit I've talked to noted that Houston keeping their 4 in the corner is generally not helpful since A. they'll have a hard time grabbing offensive rebounds and B they'll often have a late start on getting back and have to run the entire length of the court. these are ALL trade offs.
There just isn't a huge amount of examples of where a faster PF would be the key difference on if a fast breaks works or not. that's what the Wing guy is for, by default. Just think back on all the fast breaks we got hit with this year, was it Patterson / Morris standing hopelessly overwhelmed by 3 guys and/or coming in from behind to block ? or was it 90% of the time Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverly ?
The fast break argument makes even less sense then the covering outside shot argument, the later does happen sometimes though there are really only a few guys that can truly burn you that way. way less than people assume. the former, if that was true, would mean that the Grizzlies would have had the worst defense in the league instead of the best. you can argue that Howard / Asik won't have the range of Gasol / Z bo, but it's absurd to suggest that those 2 are somehow fast guys that can run with the wings.
Simple exercise, put together your list of the top 20 centers/power forwards in the NBA today THAT CANNOT SHOOT A 15- to 18-FOOT JUMPER CONSISTENTLY but that in your opinion are valuable to their teams. Keep in mind we'd have 2 such players on the court at the same time if you get your wish with D12 and Asik.
Having Terrence Jones as your back-up center isn't "tanking your 2nd unit" imo. And whether or not Millsap is a an improvement by a "small margin" is debatable. Just going off PER and TS% the improvement could be pretty significant, and I think Millsap would be better in our system than he has been in the Jazz system. Don't forget that in my scenario, we also get 3 second round picks in this year's draft (could be alot of second round sleepers) and a 1st round pick in next year's draft (very good draft).
p.s. I'm glad you found a video that pointed out how good Millsap is defensively. People seem to think he's a bad defender and that couldn't be further from the truth, outside of post-defense he's actually a very good defender. I was going to mention this but it would be a very hard thing for me to prove.
Found this cool clip about Dwight from Sports Science Show (not sure when filmed...maybe Summer of 2011?) It's an analysis of his jumping ability...pretty cool and the numbers are interesting. According to the science, Dwight creates 1,200 pounds of force (I'm presuming that is based off of surface area) when he jumps that is able to elevate his 280 lb. body. That is cool. It does raise the question about stress on his body--especially the back--as that is not normal wear and tear for any human being. Plus, falling from 3.5' and landing on a hardwood floor with the force of 280 lbs over and over and over has to take its toll. A blessing and a curse...
Here's my argument also on why Paul Millsap probably wont' bring as much as you think.
1. His biggest asset is scoring, but he'll likely get much less touches on the Rockets than on the Jazz, He had a 22% USG on the Jazz and took 13.3 shots per 36 (and got to the line for 5 more shots per game). in comparison, Patrick Patterson had a 15.4% USG and 10.9 shots, and almost never got to the line at all. If we use Milsap more like Patterson, he's scoring will fall off a cliff because....
2. he's not actually a 3 point shooter either, he took about 1 every 2 game. he hits them at a rate that's not terrible but 33% is still below average and it's at 0 volume.
3. most of his shooting is still.... wait for it.... in the paint, exactly half of his shots are still at the rim anyway. so much for not clogging up the lane. just watch some tape of him, he plays very close to the rim, though he does have a jumper, he takes it inside or just outside of the paint most of the time. he very very rarely take 15-18 footers, and even less 3 pointers,
4. his main attack method is a face up semi iso drive to the hoop, he's pretty crafty and have a lot of moves that he can use to spin / fake past people and draws a decent amount of fouls, those are solid skills no doubt, but those are plays that you space FOR, they're not plays where he was spacing he end up getting open play.
He's not a back to the basket guy, but he doesn't really play nearly as far away from the hoop as some seem to be assuming.
I also worry somewhat about him longer term, as he's not that athletic or big, he's actually the same height as "undersized" T-rob with a shorter wingspan, he's not very explosive either, as evident by the fact that he only had only 40 some dunks this year, basically the same as Patrick Patterson, (but note he plays much closer to the basket than 2Pat in general) . he's bulky and has really solid fundamentals, so he does grab a decent amount of rebound (especially defensively ) and can block shots alright.
The conclusion is that he's a really solid fundamental players without great physical attributes, as a basketball purest you love that sort of player, but let's just point out that his attack method is pretty iso heavy (for example, 78% of 2Pat's shots are assisted, only 61% of Milsap's is , on the bright side you can say that means he can create his own shot, on the other end it also means he's not really a off ball player which is what your stretch 4 is suppose to be.)
So odds are, he's not going to help the Rockets THAT much offensively, defensively he'll rotate well enough and be really solid to be useful, I don't HATE having him, He's good, I just think that having that, if we assume he's not going to get much touches and thus much scoring, doesn't seem to really do much for the first unit,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgNKFJH8q4U (last year's David Locke pod on Paul Millsap's D, he's good, better than people think, )
It's not a bad move at all, but I remain that I think odds are it doesn't change the dynamics of the starting unit that much, especially not offensively where he would be used in a dramatically different fashion than what he was doing with the Jazz, defensively in the short run he's probably better than our young guys because he's very fundamentally sound and rather experienced, But I still maintain that by going this route, your improving your starting unit by a smallish margin and drastically tanking your 2nd unit , I just don't see how that's really that good of a argument .
I think it is also important to note who is playing these small ball line-ups. When you trot out the Heat, Spurs and Thunder as examples of small ball working you are ignoring the talent differential. With Lebron, Durant, and Duncan you can run just about any offense and succeed. Given the talent around them they maximize themselves by going small. If Miami had a legit center like Hibbert they would go big all day long. The Spurs run a ton of Duncan-Splitter-Leonard line-ups (that's 6' 11", 6' 11", and 6' 7").....not exactly small.
This small-ball thing reminds me of the run-n-shoot offense. When you have the personnel it works great (and the defense to back it up), but you can't just throw 5 wide-outs on the field and think you're going to score 35+ per game. Defenses always catch up to offensive innovation--the only constant is that talent overcomes all.
You can make trades if you are over the cap, but the players need to be fairly close in monetary value.
The opposing team will simply go smaller and play faster if the Rockets had both Asik and D12 on the floor together. Who the heck is going to guard the opponents C or PF that can hit a 3 point shot if both Asik and D12 are on the floor? If I was the opposing team and I was trailing by about 10 points midway through the 3rd quarter, I would start the Hack a Howard or Hack Asik strategy to force the Rockets hand.
The only time it would make sense for the Rockets to have both Asik and D12 on the floor simultaneously is in the last 2 minutes of the first half and second half especially if we are ahead and just need defensive stops.
If the Rockets fall behind by 10-15 points in the 3rd quarter, the Rockets will be forced to go small ball and speed up the pace so having both Asik and D12 available wouldn't be of any assistance there either.
With the dearth of powerful big men in today's NBA, it is suicide in my opinion to have so much cap space tied up with 2 guys that play the same position -- Asik and D12.
If going small can easily negate big men, most teams wouldn't even be playing centers anymore. I'm finding these argument increasingly difficult to comprehend, there are trade offs, but most people seem to vastly magnify one side of the trade off and negate the other completely.
First off, fast break points very very rarely comes when you make the basket on the other side. and if it did it's usually one of the guards the F ed up anyway. I can't recall all year if I ever seen a PF being the lead breaker on those surprise outlet play, it just doesn't happen since even those stretch 4s aren't going to outrun the wings / guards.
Fast break points mostly come from turn overs, our guys coughed up a billion of them this year which was one of the biggest issue, certainly Lin by default gets the biggest blame, but all the starting 4 chucked up well above average shares of it, it's a matter of these guys aren't super experienced, haven't played a long time together, and the fast pace in general.
In these situation, whether the 4 is a stretch or a clumsy olf makes no difference, even if it's the former your not going to outrun a guard who has such a huge lead on you anyway, if anything, some folks who know there shit I've talked to noted that Houston keeping their 4 in the corner is generally not helpful since A. they'll have a hard time grabbing offensive rebounds and B they'll often have a late start on getting back and have to run the entire length of the court. these are ALL trade offs.
There just isn't a huge amount of examples of where a faster PF would be the key difference on if a fast breaks works or not. that's what the Wing guy is for, by default. Just think back on all the fast breaks we got hit with this year, was it Patterson / Morris standing hopelessly overwhelmed by 3 guys and/or coming in from behind to block ? or was it 90% of the time Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverly ?
The fast break argument makes even less sense then the covering outside shot argument, the later does happen sometimes though there are really only a few guys that can truly burn you that way. way less than people assume. the former, if that was true, would mean that the Grizzlies would have had the worst defense in the league instead of the best. you can argue that Howard / Asik won't have the range of Gasol / Z bo, but it's absurd to suggest that those 2 are somehow fast guys that can run with the wings.
The only way I see Morey moving Asik THIS off-season is if it's in a sign and trade with Lin for Chris Paul.
The opposing team will simply go smaller and play faster if the Rockets had both Asik and D12 on the floor together. Who the heck is going to guard the opponents C or PF that can hit a 3 point shot if both Asik and D12 are on the floor? If I was the opposing team and I was trailing by about 10 points midway through the 3rd quarter, I would start the Hack a Howard or Hack Asik strategy to force the Rockets hand.just to push that point a little further..............the asik /howard lineup's real benefit is defense. some here are acting like that is the only lineup we will have access to. we have a stable of young PFs who will get pt. however in the last 5 minutes of games we could put this defensive lineup on the floor bev, harden, parsons, howard, asik. that's going to give any team in the league trouble scoring. more times than not the team that is able to keep the other team from scoring in the closing minutes of games WIN. defense win championships. every team in the league has players who can get hot and cause a problem within a game, but the team that can fall back on it's defense have more success winning. look at the final's right now and the playoffs overall this year.......the teams who play good defense made noise this year. one team in particular Memphis isn't really a good scoring team, but because they have those two trees inside have the ability to make it difficult for teams to score on them. also I don't think this lineup will be as offensively challenged as some here seen to believe. big body's are great for setting picks and with howard's ability to catch the passes asik missed on the pick and roll this year..............sounds good to go in my book.
Isn't it interesting that in the 4th quarter of Game 1, NBA 2013 Finals, the Spurs had Timmy Duncan and 4 smalls and the Heat had Bosh and 4 smalls. I don't recall the Heat and the Thunder playing 2 bigs in their matchups either in the NBA 2012 Finals when it came down to crunch time.It is weird that Dwight has publicly stated his desire to play alongside Asik. Who knows what he is thinking, but it could be very interesting in certain ways. Dwight, when healthy, commands a double team on the block. With Asik lurking on the other side of the post a team would have to double off from the perimeter; otherwise, nearly any Dwight miss would be grabbed and dunked by Asik with no one boxing him out. Once this happens we can expect easy, open three point shots galore.
I also contend that the twin towers do not impose spacing issues as is often stated here. Once again, you can either bring one up top for a screen and have one lurking baseline (a la Chris Anderson vs. Indiana--dude shot like 85% getting easy dishes and cleaning the glass from Lebron and co.) or just set each one up on either side of the post. Whichever defender rotates to stop the dribble penetration gets the dubious honor of being dunked on by the guy he just left after Harden/Lin/Parsons drop off an easy pass/lob for them. Eventually, the defense will be sagging so far down to try and stop all this dunking nonsense that our three point shooters will feel like it's just a shoot-around. The opposition will eventually get so frustrated that they start fouling on every play. After sinking our 30th free throw, they will bury their faces in their towels and cry for mercy. None will be given. :P
edit: grammar
My thoughts are that if we were trading Asik to make room for Dwight we wouldn't be trading Thomas Robinson to make room for Dwight. We're probably going to keep Asik at least until we get a REALLY good offer, and Morey probably also wants to see how much our PF's have improved since the off-season so he has a better idea of our needs.
The only way I see Morey moving Asik THIS off-season is if it's in a sign and trade with Lin for Chris Paul.
If the Rockets win the D12 "sweepstakes", then I've been saying all along that we have to move Asik to better use his cap space. However, the Rockets instantly lose leverage if they were to proceed with trading Asik after signing D12 as everyone would know the Rockets needed to move Asik.I'm going to pile on this Asik to Portland idea (do we need a new thread for asik trade discussion?)....I would flip my lid if this trade went down. For all the reasons mentioned above--helping Portland, Dwight insurance, plus, what are we going to do with 4 draft picks? While I agree that the #10 pick has some intrigue--the odds of getting a player better than Omer are slim in my opinion. The only way those four picks are useful is if we turn around and package them with one of our PF's to another team--maybe to Boston for Courtney Lee and one of their young bigs?
Still, the first two points are the main ones. We can't let Asik go before Dwight signs. It gives us bargaining power. As long as we have Asik we don't need Dwight...we just want him. Once Asik is gone that changes everything.
Portland is on the verge of being very good--let's not help them--the Western conference is tough enough.
Replace the word franchise with offense and I agree wholeheartedly.
Carmelo Anthony will never win a ring as a centerpiece of a franchise. Same can probably be said of Dwight Howard.But make no mistake, Howard still considers himself a centerpiece of a franchise, in the same class as Lebron, Durant and Anthony. He will go to a team that gives him both the best chance to win and be the main man.
And Gortat wasn't making Asik money either -- $8.5 million the next 2 seasons. I will continue saying that the Rockets cannot afford BOTH D12 and Asik. If the Rockets and D12 decide to team up, we would be better suited to use Asik's cap space for a better PF and much needed depth.Unless Asik or Dwight learn to hit a jumper consistently, this team will struggle mightily. Orlando had both Dwight and Gortat. They couldn't play both of them together since they are both poor jumpshooters.
DON'T GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES! Dwight is a "mental midget" as Rahat would put it. I see our chances around 20 percent. Lakers at 70 percent and everyone else 10.
DON'T GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES! Dwight is a "mental midget" as Rahat would put it. I see our chances around 20 percent. Lakers at 70 percent and everyone else 10.
Ah I was wondering when that was. Well, I don't think Adam Silver will be much different.
If Dwight signs with Houston, Wiggins is a Laker. David Stern will make sure of it lol
If Dwight signs with Houston, Wiggins is a Laker. David Stern will make sure of it lol
The lakers won't want asik in a sign and trade. If Howard is gone they will tank next year and have like 50mill cap space for 14 free agency.
That make very sense. I still feel D12 will stay at Lakers. History, Celebrities, Big market, non-football town, a lot of opportunities except potentially disaster 2013-14 season.
Remember, Lakers still finished ahead of us this season. Howard knew that joing Houston will make Rockets a contender, not a favorite.
What I don't understand is why we sign and trade for Dwight when we can sign him through free agency.
What you said and what you just posted are totally different, but I won't bother repeating myself.
what? :blink:no my statements are consistent perhaps you should reread them
What you said and what you just posted are totally different, but I won't bother repeating myself.
this is part of the answer for question #86
Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1, 2. A team above the apron can receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the trade reduces the team's payroll and the team finishes the trade below the apron. ..............so what I just told you was correct. check here for yourself
Actually, Lakers might be able to receive players in a sign and trade too as long as none of the players they receive are part of that sign and trade (so the players they receive must be locked into existing contracts). So RBF and I were both wrong.
L.A. Lakers are over the apron by a mile, they have no way of getting under it unless they amnesty Pau Gasol or Kobe.
Golden State are only $1 million over the apron, and they have $2.5 million in non-guaranteed contracts that they can waive to get under the apron.
which means exactly what I said they can't.
Hey got a question for I guys. How can Golden state get Howard if they don't have enough space to sign him and the Lakers can not do a sign and trade cause they are over the tax
L.A. Lakers are over the apron by a mile, they have no way of getting under it unless they amnesty Pau Gasol or Kobe.
Golden State are only $1 million over the apron, and they have $2.5 million in non-guaranteed contracts that they can waive to get under the apron.
Orlando has vuvecic, the bucks have sanders, the wiz only players of value are wall and beal and we won't be getting them and we'd have to take a big contract back from them, charolette has no good players available and can't trade their pick because they have one already owed to Chicago. Cavs have varejoe so they would not give up a whole lot for asik plus they have cap space to sign someone. Philly would have a need without Bynum but their only asset would be a 14 first rounder which they wouldn't give up because they will be terrible. Atlanta is a possibility but if they sign a big to go with horford they don't have a need for asik
let me be clear............I would not trade asik. however again for the sake of argument. ok scratch Orlando......however Washington draft picks are usually pretty good and they have a need. charlotte will go through years of bad teams so any draft pick from them in the first round usually looks good same for philly. Atlanta would be salivating if we put asik on the market. especially since for us to be doing that means we won the D-12 derby. :lol:nearly all of these teams can make enough cap room to absorb asik's contract without us taking players from them and also have good draft picks
Hey got a question for I guys. How can Golden state get Howard if they don't have enough space to sign him and the Lakers can not do a sign and trade cause they are over the tax
basically they can't......they would have to find a 3rd team to absorb all the salary they need to dump for draft picks then send those draft picks to the lakers.......talk of golden state is media hype..........and welcome to the forum :rolleyes:
what does Portland have that they would be willing to give up for asik? we aren't getting lillard, batum or Aldridge and they don't have anything else that would interest the rockets enough to give them asik. as for what eastern conference team that would be interested in asik? first let me say I am against trading asik, but just for the sake of argument.......philly(if Bynum walks), charlotte, Washington, Atlanta, Cleveland. Orlando and Milwaukee. trust me if we put him on the market there will be no shortage of teams pitching the rockets for his services
I will give a dissenting opinion here. While you are correct in your assertion that Lebron has been forgiven and his transgressions forgotten (mostly) in the present I believe when the time comes to re-visit his career many people will note and account for the decision to go to Miami negatively.
That being said, Lebron has the chance to supercede that. His play during his time on the Heat has been at such a high level I think people will argue that it didn't matter that he had "help" in the guise of Wade and Bosh. Further, I think it can be argued (quite successfully) that Wade and Bosh were not nearly as helpful as they were supposed to be.
Should it diminish his career accomplishments? No, it shouldn't. I think we can all agree that to win an NBA championship is supremely difficult and to accomplish that feat, in any manner, cannot be taken lightly. Unfortunately for Lebron, there are people like me in the world who deduct points for what is essentially "collusion" amongst some of the league's premier players. I recognize that this is the reality for the NBA moving forward and that the Rockets are currently in the midst of doing this (allegedly) at this very moment in time. I am not a fan of this reality. For me, sports and fandom is more about rooting for your guys--whoever they are--and enjoying the highs and lows that they experience. This win-at-all-cost mentality that is pervading all the major sports is a loss of innocence in my book. It's not a game as much as an arms race.
Regarding Howard, I agree with you that history will be equally forgiving to him. Either Howard wins no championships, and fades into the background as so many others have before him or he goes on to win making himself relevant and people can spin whichever kind of story they wish. As a fan, I just want Howard to be healthy again. He is as unique a talent as we have in the NBA and watching him play at 100% is awesome.
One thing that's interesting is that in all of the discussion of Lebron's greatness these past few years, not once, or if I missed it, very seldom is it, or has it been brought up that he "took the easy way out" and joined forces with Wade and Bosh. Funny because in all of the venomous idiocy surrounding the discussion of his decision a few years back, most of the critics made this claim: that whatever he did would be tarnished because he jumped ship. And it hasn't happened. No one cares.
It's the latest of proofs that in general, people forget and the latest of reasons why, if you are an athlete, you should always serve your own interests. Dwight Howard claims that he is done trying to make everyone happy and will make his decision based on his own right for the emotion. We'll see if he can be believed. Dwight's train of thought two years back when he decided to opt back in to appease those who now hate him in Orlando was one of the most embarrassing acts of immaturity I can remember in recent history, an episode through which the man created his own ultimate detriment (keeping him from his desired Brooklyn Nets). What will he do this time?
If you're a player, always take the money. (Or at the least, the situation you want.) Never play hurt. Why? Because they'll ship your ass out the moment it becomes convenient. And the public forgets. The public always forgets. No one is giving Grant Hill a medal for the valor of coming back too soon to play on a bad ankle, consequently destroying a surefire HOF career. We backhandedly pat him on the back as one would do to a young child for a good effort for being able to eventually make it back and last - but we don't praise him for "toughing" it out and playing injured when with Detroit. Kudos to you, Derrick Rose. If you don't feel ready, then don't come back. The masses poking fun at your 'cowardice' for sitting out won't be the ones pitching in to make up the millions you'll lose if something goes wrong.
I've argued that the players' union needs to do a better job educating players to better serve their own interests and ignore public sentiment.
(sidenote: Once of the most hilariously preposterous moments I can remember was, during I believe Larry Bird's HOF ceremony [or perhaps Magic's>, the two former greats [Larry and Magic> chuckled in unison to the crowd's delight, regarding Lebron's departure, remarking that they never would have teamed up and joined forces. Of course conveniently ignoring the fact that each had the benefit of playing alongside some of the greatest star-studded casts in NBA history and didn't need to team up.)
What happens if Howard stays in L.A., and the Lakers never reclaim former glory? He'll be seen as a flop in the public eye - an unworthy successor upon the Rushmore of Laker greats. Sure, he could just as well flop in Houston. And he'd be seen as a disappointment here for that too. But the point is that he should do what makes him happy and not what pleases others. Wherever he fails, he'll draw scorn. And if he succeeds, wherever it is, history has proven that it will all be forgiven and forgotten.
@Manymythelegend
If you don't like Shabazz now, take a look at his assist numbers. It is HILARIOUS.
Yikes, who does he think he is, Patrick Beverley?! (I josh, I kid...sort of :ph34r:).
I guess there's a reason why NBADraft.net listed Nick Young as a comparable to Shabazz. Then again, Shabazz makes Nick Young seem like John Stockton.
@Manymythelegend
If you don't like Shabazz now, take a look at his assist numbers. It is HILARIOUS.
It is weird that Dwight has publicly stated his desire to play alongside Asik. Who knows what he is thinking, but it could be very interesting in certain ways. Dwight, when healthy, commands a double team on the block. With Asik lurking on the other side of the post a team would have to double off from the perimeter; otherwise, nearly any Dwight miss would be grabbed and dunked by Asik with no one boxing him out. Once this happens we can expect easy, open three point shots galore.
I also contend that the twin towers do not impose spacing issues as is often stated here. Once again, you can either bring one up top for a screen and have one lurking baseline (a la Chris Anderson vs. Indiana--dude shot like 85% getting easy dishes and cleaning the glass from Lebron and co.) or just set each one up on either side of the post. Whichever defender rotates to stop the dribble penetration gets the dubious honor of being dunked on by the guy he just left after Harden/Lin/Parsons drop off an easy pass/lob for them. Eventually, the defense will be sagging so far down to try and stop all this dunking nonsense that our three point shooters will feel like it's just a shoot-around. The opposition will eventually get so frustrated that they start fouling on every play. After sinking our 30th free throw, they will bury their faces in their towels and cry for mercy. None will be given. :P
edit: grammar
To begin, since I hadn't written in so long before last night, I'll be trying to cover my bases here initially regarding some of the past news that's come out during my hiatus.
One of the nuggets which has made its way into our discourse is the revelation that Dwight Howard apparently is intrigued by the prospect of teaming up with Rockets center Omer Asik. This was referenced again by Grantland's Jalen Rose during his most recent video interview. The revelation is surprising to say the least as conventional wisdom would dictate, upon a Howard signing, dealing the pricey-yet-valuable Asik for a true power forward. Or perhaps it is not too surprising.
Part of me thinks, while harsh, that the sentiment somewhat speaks to Howard's self-delusions regarding his own abilities. Asik is the prototypical garbageman, a master at cleaning up and doing the heavy lifting required to help teams win. Howard is essentially a superstar garbageman who, apart from his elite abilities finishing at the rim, is basically just really, really good at cleaning up garbage. Great centers with true offensive skills love to have garbage-men beside them (Otis Thorpe, Charles Oakley, Horace Grant) because the extra muscle allows them to funnel their energy into post scoring, knowing a capable partner is there to pick up the slack. If Hakeem loved Otis Thorpe, it made sense. But Howard wanting Asik is a bit odd as Asik essentially does what Howard is supposed to be doing.
A reader pointed out this morning, citing Howard's affinity for Serge Ibaka, that Howard likely would prefer to help from the weakside and have a 'mate who will "help the helper." The reader cited Howard's comments earlier this season about defensive trust. This makes some sense.
If Howard were to be signed, I'm not completely sure what I'd do with Asik. (If Howard truly wants him around, it's a moot point.) On the one hand, $8million for a backup (I do not think they can play in tandem for major minutes during this era plagued by the tyranny of the positional revolution) with high value is not very good asset allocation. On the other hand, two elite DPOY-caliber defensive 7 footers is one hell of a luxury to have for a contender.
I've gone on record with regard to my reluctance towards Josh Smith. I think he could surely be had in a deal for Asik. While Smith too is elite (by some statistical standards perhaps the best perimeter defender in basketball) defensively, like Howard, he'll soon be on the decline. If Howard were to be acquired, at this point in time, I'd prefer to hold onto Asik, at least for the time being, and give the young power forwards a shot at development.
I'm going to pile on this Asik to Portland idea (do we need a new thread for asik trade discussion?)....I would flip my lid if this trade went down. For all the reasons mentioned above--helping Portland, Dwight insurance, plus, what are we going to do with 4 draft picks? While I agree that the #10 pick has some intrigue--the odds of getting a player better than Omer are slim in my opinion. The only way those four picks are useful is if we turn around and package them with one of our PF's to another team--maybe to Boston for Courtney Lee and one of their young bigs?
Still, the first two points are the main ones. We can't let Asik go before Dwight signs. It gives us bargaining power. As long as we have Asik we don't need Dwight...we just want him. Once Asik is gone that changes everything.
Portland is on the verge of being very good--let's not help them--the Western conference is tough enough.
Best places for Howard -
1. To earn good amount of money
Lakers - Yes. Tax is high but more off-court advertising opportunities in non-football town in big market
2. To win championship
A. Hawks - if and only if CP3 join him
B. Warriors - Very good young players, good coach
C. Rockets - Harden
and exactly what are we going to do for a center if we don't get D-12? the draft is before FA. there is no way for us to know what will happen so this whole idea of us moving asik for anything in this draft is illogical. the rockets are not going to take a risk like that.
yeah, trading Asik before Dwight is officially signed is total suicide.
I can see a rational for trading Asik, but I generally prefer not to unless it's a deal that really blows us away.
I think Shabazz and Glen Rice Jr. is a good comparison. GRJ was supposed to be a lottery pick before all that drama. At age 20 Shabazz is a significantly better player than GRJ was at age 20 though, so you have to put age into account--by age 22 Shabazz could be a much better player. Don't get me wrong though, I'm not arguing for Shabazz, I'm just bringing him up in the discussion. You can say I'm on the fence with Shabazz, it should be obvious I have mixed feelings on whether or not he will be a good player.
If you put me on the spot and made me choose who I would draft at #10 right now, I would actually lean towards Cody Zeller. I think his ability in transition would make him a great fit in the Rockets uptempo offense, and like I said earlier he reminds me a lot of Brook Lopez--that kind of says a lot considering Brook Lopez is finally starting to emerge as one of the leagues best big men.
p.s. days ago I would have said Alex Len, but foot injuries on a guy his size are a huge reg flag imo. Daryl Morey seems to like taking risks though, we need to look no further than Royce White for proof of that.
Yeah there is the age factor, but if then we're talking about next year, then I'm fairly confident Rice will be a helpful player on most team NEXT YEAR, Shabazz MIGHT be one in 2 years.
I generally feel that this one is a total crap shoot though, drafting early is particularly hard here, because you really don't want to miss with those guys, but the odds of you missing 1-10 this time around isn't that much lower than 10-30.
The #10 pick would add around 1.8 million to the cap, we would still have around 7 million to spend.
and exactly what are we going to do for a center if we don't get D-12? the draft is before FA. there is no way for us to know what will happen so this whole idea of us moving asik for anything in this draft is illogical. the rockets are not going to take a risk like that.
The #10 pick would add around 1.8 million to the cap, we would still have around 7 million to spend.
We can get their #10 pick, their 3 2nd round picks, and we should have cap space to spend on a free agent too. That's not too bad for Asik.
their number 10 pick will add money to the salary cap because it is a 1st rounder. we are trying to open up more cap room so why would we do that, especially with no guarantee we will yet have D-12? especially in a draft where the best we can hope for is a role player who will need a couple of years grooming just to be useful to us. especially since we will be creating a better team within our own conference..............NO THANKS
We can get their #10 pick, their 3 2nd round picks, and we should have cap space to spend on a free agent too. That's not too bad for Asik.
p.s. the amount of cap space could be as high as 7 million
here's the list of free agents:http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents
You're right Portland wouldn't be an ideal spot but I think they are the team we could get the most value from as well, not sure what late lottery eastern conference team would have major interest in asik, and with asik portland wont have much cap space if any.
what does Portland have that they would be willing to give up for asik? we aren't getting lillard, batum or Aldridge and they don't have anything else that would interest the rockets enough to give them asik. as for what eastern conference team that would be interested in asik? first let me say I am against trading asik, but just for the sake of argument.......philly(if Bynum walks), charlotte, Washington, Atlanta, Cleveland. Orlando and Milwaukee. trust me if we put him on the market there will be no shortage of teams pitching the rockets for his services
been looking at this cap situation and doing a little research. this is the best the rockets can do.
asik=8374646
lin=8374646
harden=13668750
t-jones=1551840
d-mo=1422720
parsons=926500
g-smith=884293
Beverly=788872
j-Anderson=916099
r-white=1719480
that's a total of 38627846 on ten players. the rockets have 100 grand counted against the cap for tyler Honeycutt whom they let go at the beginning of last season raising the cap amount to 38727846. because the rockets will only have 10 players under contract they will need to add 474 grand for 1 vacant cap hold raising the cap amount to 39201846. the rockets only need 1 vacant cap hold because D-12 will be the 12th playergiving the rocketsthe minimum amount of players on the roster. if the cap lands at 60 mil the rockets will have the necessary room cutting the roster to these players and only moving t-rob. however what ever the amount the set cap from the NBA falls short of 60 mil the rockets must also move that much salary. of the players within the ten that the rockets would most like to move is Royce and this may not be an impossible task. the rocket still have 2 mil dollars they can apply in a trade this year. Royce makes a little over 1.7 mil. the rockets could tie him to a t-rob deal and ship the money along with him to pay his contract out. if the rockets can do that it will probably reduce the return on the deal in draft picks, but free up an additional 1.2 mil. the reason it will only free up this amount is by trading Royce it creates another vacant roster spot so an additional 474 grand much be added to the cap amount. however the total cap amount should the rocket be able to move both is 37482366 for nine players and 2 cap holds for 2 vacant roster spots. that leaves us enough room to sign howard to the max no matter what the cap is
I think Shabazz and Glen Rice Jr. is a good comparison. GRJ was supposed to be a lottery pick before all that drama. At age 20 Shabazz is a significantly better player than GRJ was at age 20 though, so you have to put age into account--by age 22 Shabazz could be a much better player. Don't get me wrong though, I'm not arguing for Shabazz, I'm just bringing him up in the discussion. You can say I'm on the fence with Shabazz, it should be obvious I have mixed feelings on whether or not he will be a good player.
If you put me on the spot and made me choose who I would draft at #10 right now, I would actually lean towards Cody Zeller. I think his ability in transition would make him a great fit in the Rockets uptempo offense, and like I said earlier he reminds me a lot of Brook Lopez--that kind of says a lot considering Brook Lopez is finally starting to emerge as one of the leagues best big men.
p.s. days ago I would have said Alex Len, but foot injuries on a guy his size are a huge reg flag imo. Daryl Morey seems to like taking risks though, we need to look no further than Royce White for proof of that.
you're talking about dealing asik to Portland? NO WAY........Portland has a very good young team looking for a center. if they get asik......that's asik Aldridge, batum, lillard, and cap room to bring in a 2 guard. we would be making competition for ourselves. why should we help them........they do play in our conference you know.
I am happy to keep Asik with Howard if we get him. They don't have to be on the court at the same time, all of the time. They can spend 5 minutes a half on the floor together, then for the rest of the game we will ALWAYS have top 5 defensive centre on the floor to anchor the defense.
Asik sets great screens as well, so he could use that tool to help Howard get dominate position on the low block.
I also think Asik is going to improve leaps and bounds on the offensive end over the off-season.
Morey won't want any first round picks because of the guarnatee salary. He would want to have max flexability.
agreed......and welcome to the forum :rolleyes:
I'd be happy with 10 for asik maybe they throw in a 2nd. There is no way we'd get a high potential lotto pick from a team next year because just the chance of it being in the top 5 makes it highly valuable.
you're talking about dealing asik to Portland? NO WAY........Portland has a very good young team looking for a center. if they get asik......that's asik Aldridge, batum, lillard, and cap room to bring ina 2 guard. we would be making competition for ourselves. why should we help them........they do play in our conference you know.
He unimpressed me sometimes too. I think he's a horrible passer, doesn't finish as well at the rim as some might expect him to, but there are some things I like about him. I really like guards who get to the line, shoot 3's, and play super aggressive. I didn't watch him enough either to feel confident about him, part of me thinks he's underrated and another part of me thinks he might end up being nothing more than a role player off the bench. It's really hard to tell.
I'm not a draft expert, but I do wonder this.
What does Shabazz do that Glen Rice Jr don't really? I can see a slightly better wingspan and being somewhat younger and that's it, but I'm of the opinion that if your drafting a wing guy, age is less of a issue than in other places, most wings will show their ability to score almost right away, and their scoring profile wont' change that much between 19-22. so if your drafting a wing who's not going to be a transcending scorer (and let's face it, no one in this draft is.) you better pick someone who's ready right away. To me, Rice is that guy, playing well in the D league for a year is a huge step up from Division 1, he can hit 3s well beyond the NBA 3 line, at a higher volume AND efficiency than Shabazz, he has a smaller wing span but much better leap, and showed it consistently in the D League both in terms of exploding to the rim and grabbing rebounds, and he can even pass a little compare to Shabazz.
And if your worried about Rice's baggage but arguing for Shabazz that seems... weird.
This draft seems like the ultimate crap shoot, the widely projected #1 seem to be Serge Ibaka who hasn't learned how to shoot with a broken ACL, that's not a good sign. there should be plenty of gem in the back end though.
I don't profess to really know much about the draft though, but my general feeling is that projects tend to be way overrated and higher floor guys who can help right away tend to be underrated.
I am happy to keep Asik with Howard if we get him. They don't have to be on the court at the same time, all of the time. They can spend 5 minutes a half on the floor together, then for the rest of the game we will ALWAYS have top 5 defensive centre on the floor to anchor the defense.
Asik sets great screens as well, so he could use that tool to help Howard get dominate position on the low block.
I also think Asik is going to improve leaps and bounds on the offensive end over the off-season.
Morey won't want any first round picks because of the guarnatee salary. He would want to have max flexability.
totally agree rahat
relevant:http://www.ysr1560.com/audio/dave-hardisty-dwight-howard-knows-houston-is-his-best-option-10526/
Makes sense, but I'm thinking that with the deadline scenario the team that wants Asik most likely wants him because they want to make a run at the playoffs. I don't see any team with a high lottery pick giving that up for Asik.
Anyway, it seems like almost every year drafts are turning out to be deeper than predicted, and I think this year's draft might be no different. Morey has had plenty of good luck in the second round in the past (no need to look much further than Parsons for proof of that), and the Blazers have 3 second round picks. What if they were to throw in one or two of those second round picks along with the #10 pick (which we could use to draft Alex Len or Cody Zeller if you don't like Shabazz)?
Personally, I'm quite intrigued with Zeller, he could be the next Brook Lopez. Alex Len is interesting too as a very mobile defensive big man.
Good point. Do you have any ideas of what/who we could trade Asik for?
He unimpressed me sometimes too. I think he's a horrible passer, doesn't finish as well at the rim as some might expect him to, but there are some things I like about him. I really like guards who get to the line, shoot 3's, and play super aggressive. I didn't watch him enough either to feel confident about him, part of me thinks he's underrated and another part of me thinks he might end up being nothing more than a role player off the bench. It's really hard to tell.
He unimpressed me sometimes too. I think he's a horrible passer, doesn't finish as well at the rim as some might expect him to, but there are some things I like about him. I really like guards who get to the line, shoot 3's, and play super aggressive. I didn't watch him enough either to feel confident about him, part of me thinks he's underrated and another part of me thinks he might end up being nothing more than a role player off the bench. It's really hard to tell.
It's all good. I think for a player of Howard's abilities and at the stage of his career, it's surprising that there are so many question marks when it comes to signing him. At the end of the day, I suppose you just get him and figure out the answers later.
Yes, I've been on both sides of the fence when it comes to whether or not we should keep Asik. There is always more than one perspective and I make an effort of acknowledging that from time to time, although sometimes I get narrow minded too like we all do (some more than others). Here are some of my thoughts:
- We could keep Asik until the trade deadline. There are about 50 regular season games before the deadline, and pacing Dwight for those 50 games could really pay off in the playoffs.
- I don't really have a full understanding of Dwight's injury. How important is it that we take it easy on his back? Dr. Klapper said that it takes 9-12 months for his back to fully recover, and it has been 12 months now so maybe I'm worrying more than I need to.
- If we trade Asik straight away rather than waiting for the trade deadline, we can keep Greg Smith who isn't a horrible back-up. Personally I think even Terrence Jones can play better defense at center than Greg Smith so we don't really need him, but some people here will disagree with me on this, and I can see why there are people who are very high on Greg Smith.
Yes, I've been on both sides of the fence when it comes to whether or not we should keep Asik. There is always more than one perspective and I make an effort of acknowledging that from time to time, although sometimes I get narrow minded too like we all do (some more than others). Here are some of my thoughts:
Weren't you all for keeping Asik and having him as a plus backup and regular season preservative for Howard not a few days ago? You remember, "Play Dwight 30 minutes a game to save his back and have Asik perform mop-up duty in all blowout games".Dwight averages 38.9 minutes per game for his playoff career, and he has even averaged as much as 43 minutes in a series. So just ask yourself this:
Is it worth it to pay 8.3 million per year for a guy we only need to average 5-9 minutes in the playoffs?
Dwight averages 38.9 minutes per game for his playoff career, and he has even averaged as much as 43 minutes in a series. So just ask yourself this:
Is it worth it to pay 8.3 million per year for a guy we only need to average 5-9 minutes in the playoffs?
5-9 minutes? you can bet asik is going to get a whole lot more than that. also 8.3 mil is a bargain for a big man of asik's abilities. ask yourself is it worth it to trade a bargain contract big man who who can be a valued asset to the team or an average underachieving point guard who is making the exact same contract. my vote goes to keeping asik
Dwight averages 38.9 minutes per game for his playoff career, and he has even averaged as much as 43 minutes in a series. So just ask yourself this:
Is it worth it to pay 8.3 million per year for a guy we only need to average 5-9 minutes in the playoffs?
just to push that point a little further..............the asik /howard lineup's real benefit is defense. some here are acting like that is the only lineup we will have access to. we have a stable of young PFs who will get pt. however in the last 5 minutes of games we could put this defensive lineup on the floor bev, harden, parsons, howard, asik. that's going to give any team in the league trouble scoring. more times than not the team that is able to keep the other team from scoring in the closing minutes of games WIN. defense win championships. every team in the league has players who can get hot and cause a problem within a game, but the team that can fall back on it's defense have more success winning. look at the final's right now and the playoffs overall this year.......the teams who play good defense made noise this year. one team in particular Memphis isn't really a good scoring team, but because they have those two trees inside have the ability to make it difficult for teams to score on them. also I don't think this lineup will be as offensively challenged as some here seen to believe. big body's are great for setting picks and with howard's ability to catch the passes asik missed on the pick and roll this year..............sounds good to go in my book.
If I was the opponent's coach, I would love to see D12 shooting jump shots rather than doing damage in the lane. I think it's pure fantasy to believe D12 can be solid outside as well as inside. I mean, the dude can't even hit his free throws consistentlyand there is NO defensive pressure on him there.
Your right that opposing coach would always rather see him outside, but that's really not because of what you think, it's more because that he's so good inside that he would have to be exceptional outside to really make that tradeoff worthwhile.
Dwight Howard, 2 years ago, shot 42% from 10 feet out (excluding the 8 3 pointer he all missed.) . that's actually a great percentage, it's better than a lot of the jump shooting PF/Cs, he didn't shoot at quite that volume (guys like West / Z bo shoot around 300ish from 2 pt range) but was also not just an once in a blue moon thing either . (he took close to 2 per game. so he had in the mid 100s.)
Chandler Parsons couldn't even hit free throws last year either (worse than Dwight's career average!), he was making crazy 3s this year (while still being a below average free throw shooter.) Free throw is a decent gauge into a guy's shooting ability, but it's hardly the end all. some guys just can't shoot facing strait at the basket, sometimes it's a mental thing of caring too much about it. if you look at Dwight, he's had
In the theoretic of having an Asik / Howard lineup, the thing obviously isn't to have them shoot long 2s a lot, it's that they need to shoot it at least once in awhile to keep other teams honest enough. and frankly I think most people assume too much on that, there are very few guys in the NBA that really can't hit an open J if they're standing where they're comfortable.
There's a few 4s that really hit 3s at enough of a rate and volume that this could present problems, but that's what you have different bench players for.
I agree with this and do believe if could be effective. Coming out of high school, Dwight was noted for having a solid jump shot and his upside was considered Kevin Garnett as a PF/C who played primarily PF.
http://preps.scout.com/2/269335.html
http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/d05/tracker/player?playerId=18627
He also has a pretty good looking jump shot. I think it is just a matter of practicing it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jdDTO31bfY
That is not to say Howard needs to be shooting jumpers, but if he can develop a reliable jumper (40-45%), running pick and roll/pop with Harden would be deadly with Parsons, Beverly (reliable 3-pt shooting guard), Asik. Imagine this: Howard sets screen for Harden about the wing with Asik set up just outside the pain opposite the screen. Parsons sets up in corner on same side as screen. Beverly starts in other corner and drifts to wing as Harden drives. That play gives you the following options depending on how defense rotates: Harden lay-up, Howard jumper, Howard drive & dunk, Asik dunk, Parsons 3 pointer, Beverly 3 pt (Harden to Parsons to Howard to Beverly).
The benefits on the defensive end are pretty self explanatory.
If I was the opponent's coach, I would love to see D12 shooting jump shots rather than doing damage in the lane. I think it's pure fantasy to believe D12 can be solid outside as well as inside. I mean, the dude can't even hit his free throws consistentlyand there is NO defensive pressure on him there.
Unless his torn labrum was in his left shoulder, I think you guys are being ridiculous.
I think the free throw shooting problem is in his head. he recently did a free throw shooting contest with a mother of three for charity. he talked about the free throw problem and is suppose to work out with chris mullin this summer. he admits he thinks to much at the line.....that's a lack of confidence in his shot..........that's fixable to some degree. he needs to establish a routine at the line
I believe this shows how mentally weak D12 is. Successful players in the NBA don't rely strictly on their physical talents. The best players are able to focus and become mentally tougher than their opponents. I just don't see D12 ever changing. I believe he is destined to be a mentally weak player throughout his playing career. Maybe he needs a few sessions with that Yoda fella that RBF mentioned in another message board.
To add to what pharmag said, I've read that Dwight was a 80-90% free throw shooter in high school. Those days are obviously over (maybe because it's harder to shoot with big hands?), but he does shoot around 60% from the line for his NBA career. I think his recent dip in free throw percentage is largely due to shoulder problems (unless his hands had an unexplanable growth spurt).
I think the free throw shooting problem is in his head. he recently did a free throw shooting contest with a mother of three for charity. he talked about the free throw problem and is suppose to work out with chris mullin this summer. he admits he thinks to much at the line.....that's a lack of confidence in his shot..........that's fixable to some degree. he needs to establish a routine at the line
To add to what pharmag said, I've read that Dwight was a 80-90% free throw shooter in high school. Those days are obviously over (maybe because it's harder to shoot with big hands?), but he does shoot around 60% from the line for his NBA career. I think his recent dip in free throw percentage is largely due to shoulder problems (unless his hands had an unexplanable growth spurt).
@BimaThug thanks. Do you have any suggestions to what we do for depth if we get Dwight? Trade Asik?
@2016Champions The Room Exception, veterans minimum, the 34th pick, and Furkan Aldemir. That should be fine for next year.
For those who don't know, The Room Exception is $2.652M, max 2 years.
first and foremost the rockets will not trade asik. he is their insurance policy. whoever they elect to move will be someone or a combination who they consider expendable. I agree with those who believe the rockets will at the very least take a look at the asik/D-12 lineup before making any decisions on asik.
I agree with this and do believe if could be effective. Coming out of high school, Dwight was noted for having a solid jump shot and his upside was considered Kevin Garnett as a PF/C who played primarily PF.
http://preps.scout.com/2/269335.html
http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/d05/tracker/player?playerId=18627
He also has a pretty good looking jump shot. I think it is just a matter of practicing it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jdDTO31bfY
That is not to say Howard needs to be shooting jumpers, but if he can develop a reliable jumper (40-45%), running pick and roll/pop with Harden would be deadly with Parsons, Beverly (reliable 3-pt shooting guard), Asik. Imagine this: Howard sets screen for Harden about the wing with Asik set up just outside the pain opposite the screen. Parsons sets up in corner on same side as screen. Beverly starts in other corner and drifts to wing as Harden drives. That play gives you the following options depending on how defense rotates: Harden lay-up, Howard jumper, Howard drive & dunk, Asik dunk, Parsons 3 pointer, Beverly 3 pt (Harden to Parsons to Howard to Beverly).
The benefits on the defensive end are pretty self explanatory.
I wasn't thinking too much about PF, more like back-ups at the 3 and 2. Greg Smith and Terrence Jones can be the 2nd and 3rd string at the 5.
Wouldn't trading away Asik then make your hope of playing Howard 30 mpg a far less likely scenario?Regardless of whether or not we trade T-Rob and White, we should trade Asik anyway because we need more depth at other positions.
We'll see, I doubt it though, he already made 8.1 this year.
As for depth, I completely disagree, the backup C drop off is much greater than whatever precised hole we have at PF, unless we're getting a all-star caliber PF . which seems unlikely to me.
I'm fairly confident millsap would be available for 8mill there doesn't seem to be a huge market for him.
He's very underrated at that price, but I believe it.
Regardless of whether or not we trade T-Rob and White, we should trade Asik anyway otherwise who do we have backing up Harden and Parsons?
I say trade Asik, that way we can keep Greg Smith, we get another valuable asset because alot of teams will want Asik, and we will also have extra cap space to bid on a small fry free agent for depth (I don't want to go into the playoffs with a worn out Harden again).
I agree with you about one thing ........we can get more for asik than lin........you know why? he has earned his contract and more, but lin has not.......the better the player the higher the bounty
Regardless of whether or not we trade T-Rob and White, we should trade Asik anyway because we need more depth at other positions.
By trading Asik we also get to keep Greg Smith, we get at least one other valuable asset because Asik should demand a good price, and we will also have extra cap space to bid on a small fry free agent unless we want to keep Aaron Brooks too.
first and foremost the rockets will not trade asik. he is their insurance policy. whoever they elect to move will be someone or a combination who they consider expendable. I agree with those who believe the rockets will at the very least take a look at the asik/D-12 lineup before making any decisions on asik.
most here refuse to accept it, but lin is a much more logical choice. guards are much easier to find than centers. for all those who believe the rockets will not pay 8.3 mil per for a backup C/PF.......take this under consideration.........the rockets do not have a big money PF or SF. the 3 people who make the most are j-lin, harden and asik. by moving lin that only leaves harden, d-12 and asik....no need to break that up at least for a year. having asikwill allow the rockets to match up with teams like Memphis andsan Antonio. with the young stable of PF's we would have the luxury of being able to gowith eitherthebig lineup withtwo 7 footersor theconventional lineup with the stretch four and still be very good at both. defense wins championships.
(IMO) the loss of asik is much worse than the loss of lin. we have bev and brooks until we can find someone else, but if we lose asik we lose a core piece. what if d-12 spurn us at that point. we will have moved our center with no good backup plan. that's a risk we can't take. centers who are as good as asik are hard to find. the lost of asik would set us back. even if we elect to move him at a later date it's unlikely the rockets do it before they know they already have d-12 in the bag...........bringing us back to lin. I know many of you just believe I'm just hating on lin, but not so.......he is the most logical choice. his contract alone will get the job done. that's still preserving the maximum amount of last years team while adding d-12. you may argue for asik or others to be traded depending on who you like or dislike, but there is no arguing with the logic that moving lin while preserving the rest last years team is probably our best path
But in that scenario they are taking TRob and Royce as well
No, we won't even be able to sign Dwight without trading Trob and White first, we're aiming for having enough cap to keep both Asik and Howard in the roster so we won't have to take the risk of trading Asik and ending up with no Howard.
Once we get Dwight, T Rob and White would already be gone, and we would be extremely close to the cap, so trading Asik will only get you a 8.3 ish cap space, in this market, I think the guy your reasonably likely to get for that money or less is Carl Landry... the 30 year old that's never started a full year, not Josh Smith.
Unless we're moving him to get somebody to take TRob and Royce with him ang getting back picks. That would allow us to sign Smith in addition to Dwight. A starting 5 of Lin/Harden/Parsons/Smith/Howard would beat anybody
No we won't, Smith , even in the most generous assumption, isn't going to be making less than 12 M next year, you open up only 8M cap space trading Asik.
for 8M, none of the bigger name PF is likely to sign, not Smith, not Milsap, not West, I suppose you might have an outside chance of getting Jefferson at that range but thats bout it, the best PF your likely to get for 8M or less is actually Carl Landry who's never been a full time starter in his career.
Just to further this argument a bit.
Generally speaking, because of matchup issues and quality of opponents, most reserves actually have better on / off # than their starting counter parts (obviously assuming that talent difference is not TOO massive.). this is well reflected by this year's Rockets, whom most of the quality reserves saw very good on/off number (for Example, Delfino was +6.2) while the starters almost all were in the negative ( Harden -1.1, Parsons -2.9 , Lin -3.0)
But, Asik? he was +5.9 , the team goes from a +5-6 team to a - 1-2 team when he's off, this is pretty huge, especially factoring in that the matchup / talent thing and it looks even grimmer , generally suggesting that this team was like a top 3-4 seed team with him on the floor and a lottery team without him.
And he was only on the floor 62% of the time. Dwight Howard, if he does come, shouldn't be expected to play THAT much more on a daily basis.
The difference between a solid but not great PF and piecing a season of Jones / Dmo / Smith is maybe the difference between 2-3 net points at best for 60% of the time, maybe not even that, the difference between Asik and someone else as the main backup C is probably 6-8 net points for 40% of the time. maybe more.
I do question the tax thing a little though, those guys all have big time accounting firms doing their taxes and lots of charity fund and what not, I'd imagine they'd be able to negate most of the tax differences one way or another anyway. But that's besides the point.
Richard: read my previous post, yes you usually don't pay 8M to a backup (though the Spur's highest paid player this year is Manu), but if you seen the difference this team (and most other teams) have when their main center is on or off the court, you'd start to question that a bit more, because
A. Center tend to have the hardest time playing long minutes for many reasons
B. the difference tend to be MASSSIVE, as in say Indiana, they're a better team than Miami with Hibbert on, they're a lottery team with him off. Asik was also by far the most massive swing difference guy on this team . There is a lack of quality center in the league these days, and the fall between starting to backup C talent wise is far bigger than in any other position, and is also the most difficult to negate via different lineups . so there is a very reasonable argument to be made that a backup C is probably more important than a starting PF, if you could get one as good as Asik, you'll need to switch him up for a star caliber PF to be really worth moving him, if it's an average caliber PF coming back , I'm almost certain you're better off with Asik on the roster instead.
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Like the doctor said, typically recovery from surgery of this magnitude should sideline normal people for 9 months to a year. Dwight's just a freak who put his back on the line (literally) to help the Lakers make the playoffs--not bad for a guy with attitude problems.
Here's a good article I read that made me open my eyes a little to how unfair people are being to Dwight:http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-on-basketball/22014728/the-thing-that-came-out-of-dwight-howards-back-was-gross
I think that article was being very fair. It's saying Dwight is flawed, and it's saying he sucked this season, but it's also saying give the man some credit for coming back several months early from something so serious. The talk about how gross the photo of what came out of Dwight's back makes it feel more real too, which I thought was good because alot of people seem to think Dwight is Shaqtin a fool or something.
If his name was Derrick Rose he would be out for 2 years.
I thought he'd be out for a while, but I NEVER heard that he was supposed to miss the entire season.
Gotta give Dan Fegan some credit too, he made everyone believe the surgery wasn't that serious but it really was. Here's what Dr. Klapper said on it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=NnaQNVqr7Os#t=152s
WHAT??? I never heard that. Then why would the lakers trade for him?
I don't know why people think he declined. He was supposed to miss the entire season because of his back surgery, but he came back 5 months early and played injured.
[size=4>[color=rgb(0,0,0)>The real reason Dwight will join Houston is happiness--he knows he will be happier here. We will treat him better than the way L.A. fans treated him, McHale will coach him better than D'Antoni coached him, he will have a better supporting cast here than he did in L.A. and he will win more in Houston.
If we look at the first four years of the contract, Howard would make $3,692,371.44 more with the Lakers than he would with the Rockets. Adjusting that number for California’s state income tax, however, Howard would actually make $1,094, 342.38 more as a Rocket playing the majority of his games in a state with no income tax because he would save $4,786,713.82 in taxes.
Read more athttp://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-pm-2-why-dwight-howard-chooses-houston#QUCzWPQGDL6HHiZP.99
Imo that extra 1 million isn't the reason Dwight will join Houston, but when you consider the 4.7 million dollar swing created by L.A. tax vs Texas tax (or lack thereof), it does help a little.
The real reason Dwight will join Houston is happiness--he knows he will be happier here. We will treat him better than the way L.A. fans treated him, McHale will coach him better than D'Antoni coached him, he will have a better supporting cast here than he did in L.A. and he will win more in Houston.
If there wasn't such an equalizer in terms of the finances (due to the tax issue), I don't think Houston would even be at the table, despite how much more attractive this situation is.
I think the tax savings thing, while real, is a tad overblown. However, it might work on someone as fragile-minded as Howard.
JohnnyGold: I think you will only see that sort of sacrifice from players at the very end of the line. Even if Dwight takes less, theoretically, there's still no lock that they'd win the title, so it just doesn't make sense for him. If there wasn't such an equalizer in terms of the finances (due to the tax issue), I don't think Houston would even be at the table, despite how much more attractive this situation is.
We must move Asik if we signed Dwight because -
- we can't have 8mil guy as a back up (although we love him so much)
- they might be able to play together but having two poor FT and jump shooters on court is liability during playoff
- we need money for quality backups
I know lots of people think Dwight is going to force a max contract, but isn't it feasible that after his experience in LA (presuming he is leaving) that he would see the value in shaving $2-$3M off that contract so that Houston can afford to put good players around him and actually build a championship team?
I will be disappointed if we sign Dwight to the full max. Not because I don't think he will be worth it, but because it makes surrounding him and Harden with quality talent that much harder. Yes, I know Morey can find talent at a flea market, but doesn't it make sense to work collectively towards a goal? If Morey is as good as most here believe then imagine what he could do with an extra $2-$3M per year. I hope Dwight realizes this and is willing to take a 10% pay cut. He can earn that back in playoff stipends every year. :)
The only scenario I can see this happening is if he and CP3 decide that they want to join forces, and each would be willing to take a discount. If either is going to give a discount, it's with the existing knowledge that the discount is guaranteed to bring in another elite player.
I know lots of people think Dwight is going to force a max contract, but isn't it feasible that after his experience in LA (presuming he is leaving) that he would see the value in shaving $2-$3M off that contract so that Houston can afford to put good players around him and actually build a championship team?
I will be disappointed if we sign Dwight to the full max. Not because I don't think he will be worth it, but because it makes surrounding him and Harden with quality talent that much harder. Yes, I know Morey can find talent at a flea market, but doesn't it make sense to work collectively towards a goal? If Morey is as good as most here believe then imagine what he could do with an extra $2-$3M per year. I hope Dwight realizes this and is willing to take a 10% pay cut. He can earn that back in playoff stipends every year. :)
Any reason why Les Alexander won't just pick up the tab on that $800,000 for one year and deal with it later?
Houston can only go over the cap signing their own players. They can't sign a free agent that puts them over the cap.
Not sure this article was cited during the discussions about Houston's cap situation, but it goes over several scenarios whereby Houston can accomodate Howard:
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/mavericks/post/_/id/4696158/how-can-houston-afford-dwight-howard
Here's the math in exact numbers:
- 8,374,646 Omer Asik
- 8,374,646 Jeremy Lin
- 13,668,750 James Harden
- 1,551,840 Terrence Jones
- 1,422,720 Donatas Motiejunas
- 926,500 Chandler Parsons
- 788,872 Patrick Beverley
- 490,180 minimum
- 490,180 minimum
- 490,180 minimum
- 490,180 minimum
- 490, 180 minimum
Total = $38,787,814 + Dwight = 58,058,514So maybe you're right, we might be able to just squeeze Greg Smith in. But I'm not the guy CBA "experts" bow down to, Larry Coon is, and here are his exact words:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-salary-cap-chat-with-larry-coon-53113
According to his calculations I'm off by roughly 100,000 which would be the difference between whether or not we can afford Greg Smith in this scenario. Lets hope I'm right and Coon is wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.
38,787,814 + 20,500,000 = 59,287,814, so the Rockets would be over the cap by almost 800k. They will have to trade another of their forwards (unless they could somehow trade Royce White).
yeah, but Greg Smith will also make only 400k more than the minimum cap hold next year, I'm fairly sure we won't be 400k off between getting and not getting Howard.
(and also, we could just waive him and resign him immediately for the same money afterwards right? because he essentially makes the minimum for 3rd year next year. of course this hinge on no one offering him more.)
Here's the math in exact numbers:
So maybe you're right, we might be able to just squeeze Greg Smith in. But I'm not the guy CBA "experts" bow down to, Larry Coon is, and here are his exact words:
A team would have to get $20.5 million below the cap to afford Dwight (assuming he’s not offering any discounts). If Houston lets go of most of their non-guaranteed or team option salary (Anderson, Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Ohlbrecht, Smith), and they find a taker for Thomas Robinson with no salary coming back, then they’d have about $19.6 million in cap room (assuming a $58.5 million cap).
http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-salary-cap-chat-with-larry-coon-53113
According to his calculations I'm off by roughly 100,000 which would be the difference between whether or not we can afford Greg Smith in this scenario. Lets hope I'm right and Coon is wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.
I closed the other thread to start this one as quite a few developments have occurred in these past few weeks.
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Finally, an interesting peripheral aspect to this whole thing is the debate as to what should be done with Asik once it is time for that bridge to be crossed. I am of the opinion that the two cannot play together, but I am also of the opinion that he is more valuable than Josh Smith who will soon begin to decline. Keeping Asik, even as a backup, allows for 48 minutes of elite paint protection and insurance against a Howard injury. However, Asik's trade value will never be higher, and it is probably not the best asset/value allocation to allot $8million into a 20 minute backup player.
yeah, but Greg Smith will also make only 400k more than the minimum cap hold next year, I'm fairly sure we won't be 400k off between getting and not getting Howard.
(and also, we could just waive him and resign him immediately for the same money afterwards right? because he essentially makes the minimum for 3rd year next year. of course this hinge on no one offering him more.)
I like Greg Smith too, but I highly doubt Morey is going to say no to signing Dwight just because he doesn't want to get rid of Greg Smith.
Interesting, if the cap doesn't move then this makes getting Howard a little more difficult then I first thought that's for sure. we'll see how Morey maneuver this, it's well within the realm of plausibility but certainly it adds to the difficulties a bit.
I'm highly doubtful that we'll get Greg Smith go, as noted even if you do let him go you'll still have a cap hold on the minimum, his contract is very close to the minimum anyway and your unlikely to get a similar caliber replacement at that money.
I think you've voiced your perspective on Jeremy Lin about 236 times on several different threads, give or take.
you sure.........I thought it was only 235 :lol:
I think you've voiced your perspective on Jeremy Lin about 236 times on several different threads, give or take.
I think most of you know how I feel about j-lin :lol:I have been trying to argue his value verse contract for awhile.....I'm not going to bash him, but now it makes even more since for the rockets to move him. his contract not only frees enough room to sign D-12, but also makes it possible without loosing other pieces. the rockets might be able to hold on to either brooks or delfino.....likely brooks with lin gone. whatever we get in return is a gift just as long as it doesn't land on the salary cap. you all know I don't view him as a core piece to this team. he is the one player we can loose and not be greatly affected whose contract will get the job done.......what do you think?
I agree that Asik would have a slightly better return but you need Asik in case Dwight changes his mind at the last minute or signals he would like Asik as a backup (Howard still needs a good back up considering he is coming off back problems, probably still a year away from being able to push him hard). Plus I think you have to give Asik and Howard some run together just to see how it goes, at least till February. Asik seems more like a core piece than Lin who still seems to be trying to find himself. Lin would have been a nice piece but due to circumstances he is more of an asset now than a player. Harden and Dwight could be great together.
I think we can get alot more in return for Asik than we can for Lin, and Dwight's arrival makes Asik expendable, so logically it makes alot more sense to trade Asik imo.
The question in my mind is whether or not Dwight will still want to sign if we trade Asik to make room, didn't Dwight say he wants to play with Asik? If that's the case then I think we keep Asik at least for now, we can trade Asik in the next off-season or before the deadline. One thing is for sure, by 2015 Asik will have a starting role and a bigger contract--whether or not that's in Houston depends on Dwight.
I agree with you rockets best fan. Lin is probably the best option to be traded away since despite being a good player he is definitely not essential and as for his leadership he had provided well that is easily replaced considering this team is still in it's formative years. I hope they can dump Lin on someone even though I have a feeling it may not be him.
If trob is the smokescreen that means asik is most likely gone or possibly Lin I guess but its really risky to end up trading asik and Dwight changing his mind.
I highly doubt the rockets trade asik as in he is their insurance against not getting howard.....now lin that's another story
I don't know who these "experts" are saying the cap will be 60m, but Larry Coon is the expert among experts--he's the guy who writes the CBA FAQ's that even experts use as a guide. Here's a snippet from Wikipedia:
TheNBA Players Associationprovides the entireCBAfor fans to inspect,[7>but simply links to Coon's website for users who have specific questions about thecontents of the CBA.[8>InThe Book of Basketball, sportswriterBill Simmonscalls Coon an "Internet hero" for his detailed, 40,000 word site.[9>TNT'sDavid Aldridgelists Coon among the innovators of theBasketball Blogospherewhich he called the NBAinnovation of the decade.[10>Aldridge also lists Coon among thepower players of the 2010 free agent market.[11>
In July 2011 Sports Illustrated named Coon to theirTwitter 100which lists the 100 most essential people in the sports world to follow onTwitter.
There's still a chance the NBA will change their mind about what the cap will be, but according to Coon's chats the NBA has already told GM's that the cap will be 58.5m and it's only a matter of time before the official announcement is made.
NO 2016 is right. the rockets can get down to the necessary amount. the problem is the cap holds for the vacant roster spots. each will be 474 thousand. when they are added in they still leave the rockets a little short of the necessary amount
after more thought on this...........the rockets either will move a combination of playersor will move 1 player who covers the entire amount. I was thinking near the trade deadline when there were rumors of the rockets trying to move t-jones. however when the dust settled pp and mm were the one's gone and t-jones was still here. JG, 2016 and myself recently had a conversation base on the subject of how deceptive some of morey's actions can be. might t-rob just be the smoke screen?
The information we have at the moment is that Morey is moving Robinson to clear cap room. He knows the combination of players that he needs to move to get to 20.5 million and probably has some idea what the new salary cap is going to be. If Robinson is not enough to clear the space needed and they are forced to trade Asik, then why move Robinson at all? (unless they want to sign Howard and someone like Milsap or they need the extra space to fill out the roster).
His calculations are based on a 58.5 million dollar cap. Most experts tend to think it will be more like 60 million, so the Rockets will probably be able to hang on to Smith, let their other non-guarantees go, trade Thomas Robinson for a trade exception and a future draft pick, and have 20.5 million to sign Howard.
NO 2016 is right. the rockets can get down to the necessary amount. the problem is the cap holds for the vacant roster spots. each will be 474 thousand. when they are added in they still leave the rockets a little short of the necessary amount
after more thought on this...........the rockets either will move a combination of playersor will move 1 player who covers the entire amount. I was thinking near the trade deadline when there were rumors of the rockets trying to move t-jones. however when the dust settled pp and mm were the one's gone and t-jones was still here. JG, 2016 and myself recently had a conversation base on the subject of how deceptive some of morey's actions can be. might t-rob just be the smoke screen?
My thoughts:
- Dwight is leaning towards Houston, Parsons and Harden have been huge in the recruiting process.
- Signing Dwight requires more than alot of people here realize, trading Thomas Robinson won't be enough (see HERE and I've done the math to confirm this). Royce White needs to be included in the deal.
- Might trade Asik instead, his current value is higher than T-Rob's, and this would allow us to keep Greg Smith and James Anderson (possibly Aaron Brooks too depending on whether or not we take back guaranteed salary in the trade)
- Whether or not we want Dwight shouldn't even be a question, was a consensus top 5 player 2 years ago and will be again when healthy and used to his strengths (pick and roll, cuts, rebounding, defense).
His calculations are based on a 58.5 million dollar cap. Most experts tend to think it will be more like 60 million, so the Rockets will probably be able to hang on to Smith, let their other non-guarantees go, trade Thomas Robinson for a trade exception and a future draft pick, and have 20.5 million to sign Howard.
My thoughts:
- Dwight is leaning towards Houston, Parsons and Harden have been huge in the recruiting process.
- Signing Dwight requires more than alot of people here realize, trading Thomas Robinson won't be enough (see HERE and I've done the math to confirm this). Royce White needs to be included in the deal.
- Might trade Asik instead, his current value is higher than T-Rob's, and this would allow us to keep Greg Smith and James Anderson (possibly Aaron Brooks too depending on whether or not we take back guaranteed salary in the trade)
- Whether or not we want Dwight shouldn't even be a question, was a consensus top 5 player 2 years ago and will be again when healthy and used to his strengths (pick and roll, cuts, rebounding, defense).
2016 you are right I stand corrected the rockets will be just a little short moving t-rob only. the site you posted is only larry's Q&A, but I crossed into Houston's salary cap page. this might be why t-rob has not already been moved. what the rockets are likely trying to do is attach Royce white's contract along with enough cash to pay it out to a t-rob deal freeing themselves of his headache as well. so in reality a team needs about 5.5 mil cap space to give the rockets what they desire
I was thinking the same thing yesterday, it really is surreal. We went from perennial mediocrity to being ranked 3rd on ESPN future power rankings in the blink of an eye.
Typically I wouldn't want to get my hopes up with all this talk about Dwight, but I feel like I can afford to because our future seems so secure with or without Dwight. If he doesn't get on board this train it's his loss more than it is ours imo, getting him will merely speed up our inevitable ascent towards contention.
Instead of 2016 champions we can be 2014 champions.
^On that point, I'm really setting myself up for some serious disappointment, but it's surreal to think that, based on where the Rockets were at this point last year, they could have two top 10 players on their roster, once again, in a few months, one of whom is just a year removed from being considered a top 3 player.
My thoughts:
@feelingsupersonic
I agree the rockets will take a long look at howard and asik this first year before deciding whether or not to move asik. the potential benefit can not just be brushed aside without at least taking a look at it.
as for howard I have been saying we have a shot to get him for a long time now. I believed even when no one else did. I have debated posters on this forum about our chances and look, now it's the lakers who spend sleepless night worrying if howard will leave. like rahat said above the lakers only argument relies on guilt and the 5year contract. howard like all stars wants to win. we give him the best option to do that. the money is always a factor, but once the the real cpa's got involved the money figures turned out to be a lot closer than the propaganda the lakers were spreading. there are some who believe howard will begin breaking down after he arrives.........I don't. I think he will be fine and continue to deliver his numbers for at least another7 years. that's opening a championship window for a good long time.
Unless Asik or Dwight learn to hit a jumper consistently, this team will struggle mightily. Orlando had both Dwight and Gortat. They couldn't play both of them together since they are both poor jumpshooters.
I hope we land either LA, Cousins, or someone similar for Asik.
I really don't know, Dwight Howard is generally not a really predictable person.
