The Stats Say: Jeremy Lin has been playing like he might be worth a $15 million salary

Jeremy Lin has been beyond excellent. It could reasonably be argued that he has been the best Rocket so far this season, and not just compared to expectations. When you combine all of his box score statistics (as is done by PER and WS/48), he comes out pretty much tied for second with Dwight Howard, just a bit behind James Harden. But some custom stats that I’ve been keeping suggest that those metrics are actually underestimating Lin.

I have been tallying on paper what most fans informally tally in their minds: how often each player is making good and bad plays. (So geeky, I know.) I loosely define “good plays” as offensive plays that result in a high percentage attempt (e.g., passing to a shooter in the corner for an open three, even if he misses) or defensive plays that prevent the opponent from having a high percentage attempt (e.g., closing out quickly and challenging a shooter, even if he makes it). “Bad plays” are just the opposite. I also give tallies for particularly good/bad rebounds or loose ball plays. I have kept tallies for every game except the first. You can view the raw data in a Google spreadsheet here.

The advantage of these stats over box score stats is that they give a much more complete picture of performance, especially on the defensive end. There are so many things that the box score overlooks, e.g., effectively challenging a shot, forcing a ball handler into the strength of the defense, or making a great pass that the receiver fumbles out of bounds. All these important things are captured with my tallies.

The disadvantage of these stats is that they’re more subjective and squishy. Some good plays and bad plays aren’t easily noticeable (e.g., Dwight’s mere presence may create extra spacing for Rocket shooters), and it’s sometimes – but not as often as you’d think – hard to assign individual blame on defensive breakdowns. I assign credits and blames as objectively as humanly possible, but I certainly have my biases. For example, even I don’t trust my own tallies on Asik because I have a hard time accepting that the man has ever done anything wrong.

Back to Jeremy Lin. According to my tallies, Lin has been only slightly below Harden in terms of the rate of good offensive plays, and after adding up all “credits” and subtracting all “blames,” Lin comes out looking slightly better, as shown below.

Harden vs. Lin_11-12-13

(Data objectivity note: I neither particularly like nor dislike Lin as a player or person, so I don’t think my judgment is clouded in this case like it is in the Asik case. If anything, I might be underestimating Lin in comparison to Harden, because I happen to really like Harden.)

Harden hasn’t been fully healthy and has been on a bit of a cold streak, so I don’t expect this trend to continue, but I find it extremely encouraging that Lin has been playing at what we can fairly call Max-Contract level. I don’t think it would be crazy to predict that he will be the Rockets’ third superstar this season because I have no reason to believe he can’t or won’t continue at this pace. His major weaknesses from last year – shooting, defense, and left-handedness – all seem to have magically evaporated over the summer. What’s to stop him now?

——

Two other brief notes related to these data (but unrelated to Jeremy Lin):

Pessimism: Dwight Howard is clearly not back to his dominant self. According to my tallies, in terms of both defense and rebounding – where Dwight makes his money – he has been just average, which means that he has been awful.

Optimism: According to my tallies, against the Raptors Monday night, Terrence Jones had not only a good game, not only the best defensive and rebounding game of the night, not only one of the best games of his young career, but the best game of any Rocket so far this season, and by a non-trivial margin. I don’t believe there is another player on the Rockets’ roster who could’ve defended Rudy Gay nearly as well as Jones did. Not even Asik. He was remarkable.

——

P.S. – We could test just how objective (or not) these tallies are if we have multiple people recording them. I encourage you to try it for a game or two. If you send your data to me via a Google spreadsheet  (justinwehr@gmail.com) in the same format as I have mine, I will do a reliability test and report back the results.

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Total comments: 148
  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Ha, I guess I really was way off. Sorry. I read too many posts at once and tried to respond without re-reading. I just went and re-read them...it's tricky and at times it seems implied, but you're right. You never expressly said that so my apologies.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    (It seems RudyT was talking Lin for Hill, but that's another story).

    Lol. I think this is my third time trying to clarify this.

    I never proposed a Lin for Hill trade. I started by saying that we should not trade Lin.

    George Hill's name only came up later as an example of the type of PG who had the size, length, and game that, in my opinion, would complement Harden best. But I never proposed acquiring the actual George Hill. I never proposed a trade involving anyone on our roster for Hill.

    I normally don't go this far out of my way to explain myself, but I felt that I needed to do it one more time given what JG wrote above.

  • vonsteve says 8 months ago

    There's a point when you have to stop moving around players and start letting the players you have gel together over the long term. I'm not saying we should stop looking at ways to improve, but stability matters too.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    If we're winning championships then Leslie will pay the taxes, I don't see Beverley leaving via FA.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Rookie contracts don't last forever, just don't forget to account for that fact in your big picture. If I had the choice between retaining Beverley for $6m or Lin for $8 I would choose Lin in a heart beat, not because I'm bias I have no reason to be, but because Lin is a much better player and the better fit for us with his ability to play 2 positions. Beverley would be much easier to replace at a low cost.

    Thanks. I didn't then and I seldom do. Much like reminding people of small sample sizes I didn't think I needed to go over this aspect of the idea since it seems like common sense. As to which I would choose--I'm in a wait and see mode. There is a long time between now and when that decision gets made plus the chance that one of them winds up in a trade. Given how our roster is shaping up, I feel like we will most likely be making a trade next Summer or at next year's trade deadline so that we can make room to re-sign the guys we need to re-sign....sadly, we have too many good players and I don't see how we can keep them all.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    I am not even sure Bev gets re-signed. I'm not even sure why this is being asked since my comparison was between Beverley and George Hill--not Lin. The whole thing revolved around (what I thought at the time) was a trade of Bev for Hill (It seems RudyT was talking Lin for Hill, but that's another story). This made no sense to me as they perform similar functions and one is currently priced much cheaper. You can hate that all you want, but Morey seems to find it very important. Signing guys like Dwight and Harden make it very important. We will not be moving forward with both Lin and Beverley unless they are willing to take discounts and sign under their market value--anyone who thinks otherwise is not seeing the big picture here.

    Rookie contracts don't last forever, just don't forget to account for that fact in your big picture. If I had the choice between retaining Beverley for $6m or Lin for $8 I would choose Lin in a heart beat, not because I'm bias I have no reason to be, but because Lin is a much better player and the better fit for us with his ability to play 2 positions. Beverley would be much easier to replace at a low cost.

  • Cooper says 8 months ago I could see both Lin and Beverly not being retained.
  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    No let's seriously discuss this. How much do you think Beverley will get re-signed for? I think it will be around $6m per year. You should be comparing Beverley's next contact to Lin's, not his rookie contact.

    I am not even sure Bev gets re-signed. I'm not even sure why this is being asked since my comparison was between Beverley and George Hill--not Lin. The whole thing revolved around (what I thought at the time) was a trade of Bev for Hill (It seems RudyT was talking Lin for Hill, but that's another story). This made no sense to me as they perform similar functions and one is currently priced much cheaper. You can hate that all you want, but Morey seems to find it very important. Signing guys like Dwight and Harden make it very important. We will not be moving forward with both Lin and Beverley unless they are willing to take discounts and sign under their market value--anyone who thinks otherwise is not seeing the big picture here.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago Honestly it depends wether we are winning or not.
  • RollingWave says 8 months ago

    [spoiler>NBAStats1_zps2eac6fe4.png[/spoiler>

    (Filter: Guards, over 10 games , average 25min + a game, and usage of over 20% aka onball guys that's played most of the season.)

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    Beverley is a mid level exception guy.

    He's getting a bit of hype around the league as an elite defender so I see him going for a little more than the mid level. He even got a vote for DPoY in the official ESPN predictions, David Thorpe voted for him.

  • Cooper says 8 months ago Beverley is a mid level exception guy.
  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    ...and you think posts like this help? Okie Dokie. Thanks for refereeing. :P :)

    RudyT, it's cool. My response probably did lose track of what you had said. My bad.

    No let's seriously discuss this. How much do you think Beverley will get re-signed for? I think it will be around $6m per year. You should be comparing Beverley's next contact to Lin's, not his rookie contact.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    I like Lin's contract better as it expires the end of next season and with George Hill he is under contract for 2 additional seasons at $8 million per.

    I don't know if it's possible, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Rockets re-sign Lin longer term and try and restructure his contract at the same time.

    However, Lin may just want to test free agency Summer 2015 as he may want the same thing as Asik, a chance to be a starter, while he is still young and in good health.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago

    I like Hill and think he's roughly in the same class as Lin. That's why they're paid the same. I think I'd rather have Lin since he's more familiar with our system and has more potential. With Paul George getting better and better, I don't think Indy would want Lin. Maybe if Hibbert goes down we could get Granger/Hill for Asik/Lin/etc.., but it's not likely to happen, so let's drop it.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Lets not compare rookie contracts to non rookie contracts, I hate that.

    ...and you think posts like this help? Okie Dokie. Thanks for refereeing. :P :)

    RudyT, it's cool. My response probably did lose track of what you had said. My bad.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    I know this is going to sound hypocritical coming from someone who openly finds Lin detractors hilarious, but conversations just aren't any fun when people start feeling the need to get defensive, so everyone please try not to get defensive and don't make others feel the need to defend themselves. This goes for the moderators too so I'm not singling anyone out here, just think of it as friendly advice from someone who enjoys seeing fun conversations!

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    If I read it? That's a little dismissive--thanks for that. Sorry if I made a mistake, but like I said...this thread got complicated by the time I came back to it.

    Well, it was starting to sound like maybe you hadn't read the first post I wrote on the subject, which, as you said was starting to get complicated. I was trying not to be presumptuous. I wasn't trying to be dismissive.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    If I read it? That's a little dismissive--thanks for that. Sorry if I made a mistake, but like I said...this thread got complicated by the time I came back to it. The bottom line is I disagree with your train of thought that having two players in Beverley's mold is better than having a guy like Lin (scorer/playmaker) or Brooks (the same). It seems we both agree that keeping Lin is good so there's that.

    Sorry for the salary cap mention, 2016--but it's a relevant thing here. It's not a comparison--it's just the situation. When considering upgrades I don't see how that can't be part of the conversation--especially when we've already got so much money tied up in so few positions.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    This is all getting complicated. I don't think we need an upgrade because our guys are fine. Hill would work--until you realize that Bev offers similar production (with slightly less defense) for 1/8th his price. Salary cap matters.

    Regarding Lin--it amazes me how often talk of him seems to be so player-centric and less team-oriented. Lin is fine next to Harden. The Rockets are better with him spending time away from Harden--that's all I meant. Bev can be good for us the same way Chalmers is good for Miami or Hill is good for Indiana. It's about fit and I think our guys fit fine. Since you already acknowledged Hill is probably off the table who do you think we should target, RudyT?

    Parsons is best playing off the ball--if we were to rely on him to create offense for us the way Harden or Lin does night in and night out it would get ugly fast. Maybe in a year or two, but he's not there yet. We need a guy who can create shots for himself and others even when the defense clamps down. I would actually rank Beverley ahead of Parsons right now in that regard.

    If you read the first post I wrote on this topic, I said that we shouldn't trade Lin because we cannot get the kind of player that we need in return. I don't want to trade him, I think he's done well enough with Harden for us not to trade him. The only reason to trade him is for a "fit" upgrade if one is available, but none is, therefore we should not trade him.

    As for Bev vs Hill, I never said that a player like Hill should be Bev's replacement. I said that a player like Hill should be Lin's replacement if we trade him. Obviously Bev is a great fit for Harden, but just as obviously, he can't play 48 minutes a night. In fact, he has shown so far that he is most effective/ disruptive, in controlled minutes. So, what would be better in that situation than having two players like Bev who can each play 25-30 minutes a night and have the new guy be someone who is taller and longer than Bev with a little more offensive game.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    Lets not compare rookie contracts to non rookie contracts, I hate that.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    This is all getting complicated. I don't think we need an upgrade because our guys are fine. Hill would work--until you realize that Bev offers similar production (with slightly less defense) for 1/8th his price. Salary cap matters.

    Regarding Lin--it amazes me how often talk of him seems to be so player-centric and less team-oriented. Lin is fine next to Harden. The Rockets are better with him spending time away from Harden--that's all I meant. Bev can be good for us the same way Chalmers is good for Miami or Hill is good for Indiana. It's about fit and I think our guys fit fine. Since you already acknowledged Hill is probably off the table who do you think we should target, RudyT?

    Parsons is best playing off the ball--if we were to rely on him to create offense for us the way Harden or Lin does night in and night out it would get ugly fast. Maybe in a year or two, but he's not there yet. We need a guy who can create shots for himself and others even when the defense clamps down. I would actually rank Beverley ahead of Parsons right now in that regard.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    That sounds positive to me.

    What is your take on George Hill's contract, 4 years including this season at $8 million per?

    I just want to clarify. I never said that we should trade for George Hill. As far as I know, there's no way that the Pacers would even trade him.

    The point that I was trying to make was that we shouldn't trade away Lin unless we could address an area of need, and I identified a starting PG that fits better as an area of need. George Hill was just an example of a player with the size, length, and the kind of game that would be a good fit and be an upgrade without pushing into "star player" territory. I kept saying that a player like Hill would be an upgrade. Never said that he himself should be our target.

    That kind of renders any questions about Hill's contract pointless. But since you asked, I think that Hill's contract is fair for what he does. If you look around the league, $8 mil is about the going rate for a player of his size, age, and skill set.

    Since this started as a discussion about Lin, if we look at LIn's contract vs Hill's, the cap hit is dead even this year and next. And after that, if his team needed to clear cap space, Hill's contract is very tradeable.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    That's how he's used in Indiana too. Lance Stephenson and Paul George do most of the playmaking. That's how a player like him would be used here too, with Harden and Parsons doing most of the playmaking.


    That sounds positive to me.

    What is your take on George Hill's contract, 4 years including this season at $8 million per?
  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    The more playmakers the better, as long as everyone's sharing the ball making quick decisions

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    I liked Hill in the San Antonio system but he was used primarily as a SG there playing often alongside Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili.

    That's how he's used in Indiana too. Lance Stephenson and Paul George do most of the playmaking. That's how a player like him would be used here too, with Harden and Parsons doing most of the playmaking.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    I don't recall calling Lin a star. I was replying to JG who said that a real PG upgrade would have to be a star player. I was trying to say that we don't need a star to upgrade the position. We can upgrade by finding a better fit. A player like George Hill, who isn't necessarily a better overall player than Lin, would be an upgrade because he is a better fit. As JG said, Hill is sort of a taller version of Bev. He's a good shooter, is good playing off the ball, a pretty good defender. And he can defend both guard positions. He's not that great at creating offense, so he's not perfect. But otherwise he's pretty close.


    RudyT1995, I am in agreement with you that neither Jeremy Lin or George Hill is considered to be a star at this point in their careers.

    George Hill's contract is through the 2016-17 season at $8 million per. At least Lin's contract, for better or worse, expires at the end of next season. That makes him more valuable cap wise.

    But more importantly to me, I just don't value George Hill as a consistent point guard that is as good with the pick and roll, etc. as Jeremy Lin and no, I am not a LOF.

    I liked Hill in the San Antonio system but he was used primarily as a SG there playing often alongside Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili.
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    I wouldn't consider Jeremy Lin a star either, at this point in his career. Perhaps never.

    I personally like Jeremy Lin more than George Hill, I had Hill on my FBL team last year and suffered through a lot of his bad games. His shooting percentage is not ideal, either.

    I don't recall calling Lin a star. I was replying to JG who said that a real PG upgrade would have to be a star player. I was trying to say that we don't need a star to upgrade the position. We can upgrade by finding a better fit. A player like George Hill, who isn't necessarily a better overall player than Lin, would be an upgrade because he is a better fit. As JG said, Hill is sort of a taller version of Bev. He's a good shooter, is good playing off the ball, a pretty good defender. And he can defend both guard positions. He's not that great at creating offense, so he's not perfect. But otherwise he's pretty close.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago He's played well with Harden. But some of that is that Harden has been injured and has allowed Lin to excel. When he's back to full strength I'm not sure how they will coexist.
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    I don't get why people don't think Lin plays well with Harden tough, that's my issue. I know he has his best games without Harden but he's more efficient with Harden, and he's also better at attacking the gaps created by the defensive attention Harden commands. Or am I being delusional?


    No doubt they sure seem to be playing better together than, for comparison sake, this time last season. Having Lin come off the bench as the 6th man seems quite effective in most games.

    Lin's value is that a Harden or a Beverly can miss games and Lin can step right in without the Rockets seemingly losing a beat. AB has had a couple of really good games and several non-descript games as the PG off the bench in those cases. Still overall, better than could be expected.

    I think the Rockets are only going to get better over time.
  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    I don't get why people don't think Lin plays well with Harden tough, that's my issue. I know he has his best games without Harden but he's more efficient with Harden, and he's also better at attacking the gaps created by the defensive attention Harden commands. Or am I being delusional?

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    We don't need a star. George Hill isn't a star, and a player like him would be pretty close to ideal.


    I wouldn't consider Jeremy Lin a star either, at this point in his career. Perhaps never.

    I personally like Jeremy Lin more than George Hill, I had Hill on my FBL team last year and suffered through a lot of his bad games. His shooting percentage is not ideal, either.

    Anyway, I have to be careful what I say before I get called out as a supposed LOF.
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    Yeah, hold up there. I love having Lin on the team and do not want him traded. I'm not delusional about him. I just think he is ideal for us. I agree with 2016 that his skills are best utilized on the second unit and Bev is a great off-ball player (like George Hill in Indiana) who works well with Harden. I don't believe we need a PG upgrade, unless you're talking a star--which as I pointed out is counter-productive given Harden's role and style of play.

    We don't need a star. George Hill isn't a star, and a player like him would be pretty close to ideal.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    Yeah, hold up there. I love having Lin on the team and do not want him traded. I'm not delusional about him. I just think he is ideal for us. I agree with 2016 that his skills are best utilized on the second unit and Bev is a great off-ball player (like George Hill in Indiana) who works well with Harden. I don't believe we need a PG upgrade, unless you're talking a star--which as I pointed out is counter-productive given Harden's role and style of play.

    According to mysynergy's defensive stats Lin and Beverley are nearly identical on the whole--like 2016 said, each excels in different areas, but they rank around the same.

    All this trade talk is somewhat amusing. Do we really need a trade? No. Our roster is one of the best in the league top to bottom. Remember, we still have two guys (Brewer and Smith) injured who haven't been able to contribute much. Asik has no leverage except to play well and increase his trade value to expedite his desire to leave. In so doing, he may discover he likes his role and the whole thing will just blow over.


    Careful there JohnnyGold before someone decides to categorize you as a LOF! Maybe you can find all of us an amusing picture that shows us your definition of LOF! Lover of F-- whoever or whatever that may be, I don't know!
  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Yeah, hold up there. I love having Lin on the team and do not want him traded. I'm not delusional about him. I just think he is ideal for us. I agree with 2016 that his skills are best utilized on the second unit and Bev is a great off-ball player (like George Hill in Indiana) who works well with Harden. I don't believe we need a PG upgrade, unless you're talking a star--which as I pointed out is counter-productive given Harden's role and style of play.

    According to mysynergy's defensive stats Lin and Beverley are nearly identical on the whole--like 2016 said, each excels in different areas, but they rank around the same.

    All this trade talk is somewhat amusing. Do we really need a trade? No. Our roster is one of the best in the league top to bottom. Remember, we still have two guys (Brewer and Smith) injured who haven't been able to contribute much. Asik has no leverage except to play well and increase his trade value to expedite his desire to leave. In so doing, he may discover he likes his role and the whole thing will just blow over.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    I don't think it's so much that Bev plays next to Harden better than Lin does, it's more like Bev needs Harden more than Lin does to be effective offensively. Lin is much better at leading the second unit so that's where he's more needed. My only problem with all this is when Lin plays only 17 minutes and we lose, especially given how great Lin has been in 4th quarters the last 50 games.


    It probably ends up coming down to matchups and specific time in the game, are we ahead and trying to protect the lead, are we behind needing to score to catch up, etc.

    And if the opposing team has a particular PG that is difficult for Lin to defend, then Beverly could be the best choice although that will no doubt hinder our offense unless Beverly is stroking the 3's better than usual.

    I do agree Lin needs more than 17 minutes to be an effective player. Honestly, that is true of pretty much anybody in the NBA. 17 minutes just isn't enough time to get a feel for a particular game, in my opinion.

    I think for the most part McHale is doing a decent job with his rotations but there are going to be some instances where if things don't work out that he can easily be criticized as hindsight is always 20-20.

    Welcome to being an NBA Coach and second-guessing amongst the fans! It's funny, second-guessing only occurs when your team loses, though.
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    I was with you up until that last sentence, RudyT. Beverley has performed very well next to Harden. While his defense may not be as elite as once thought--it is above average. Add to that good 3 pt. shooting, excellent rebounding and blocks for a PG and what more do you want?

    The main problem is that there is only one of him. Bev has shown that he is at his best when he plays less than 30 min/g. He wears down when he's asked to play more.

    Also, he's not that effective guarding bigger players and struggles to create for the team as a primary option. If we trade Lin, that's what Bev would be asked to do.

    A bigger starting PG that can play both ways, and guard both positions when needed would fill that need. In other words, we need a version of Lin that meshes better with Harden and plays better defense.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    I was with you up until that last sentence, RudyT. Beverley has performed very well next to Harden. While his defense may not be as elite as once thought--it is above average. Add to that good 3 pt. shooting, excellent rebounding and blocks for a PG and what more do you want? The reality is that Harden, in his current form, is not an ideal player next to a ball-dominant PG that can score, distribute, and defend well (those guys end up being called stars and won't want to play next to Harden).

    Lin also fills the bill--we've been down this road before and for the most part there just aren't many viable trades that would net us a REAL upgrade at pg. We will either wind up with a cheaper pg with a lower ceiling or a more expensive one with a higher one--it seems many around here believe we can get both, but I just don't see it.

    I don't think it's so much that Bev plays next to Harden better than Lin does, it's more like Bev needs Harden more than Lin does to be effective offensively. Lin is much better at leading the second unit so that's where he's more needed. My only problem with all this is when Lin plays only 17 minutes and we lose, especially given how great Lin has been in 4th quarters the last 50 games.

    Defensively it's a wash. I know it seems like Bev is world's better defensively, and he is in certain areas such as on-ball pressure, but Lin is better at closing out to shooters from further away. Lin is also so much better on switches, his size and strength is great for a PG.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    3. Lin gets traded to a lottery bound team with other no established"go-to" scorer.Concentrates on his offensive game, and working with his young teammates to run up and down the floor for spectacular fast break points. Plays virtually the entire game . 38 mpg, 22.5 ppg, 6.7 assists. "Linsanity II" ensues, sales of Lin jerseys explode in China, team finishes in the lottery.

    I think Lin himself would be OK w/ 1 or 2. I am afraid that someLin fans would be happiest with 3.


    I have no clue why I am being categorized as a LOF (I don't even have a clue, I guess I'm just too old to understand, what LOF means).

    I do know it's a derogatory characterization of someone who appreciates Lin's game and what he brings to the Rockets.

    So I guess LOF means if I don't agree with the Lin detractors (I prefer that over the word "hater"), then I am automatically a LOF, whatever the heck that means.

    If LOF means "Lin Only Fan" then I find it quite derogatory and demeaning that when I make positive statements about a Rockets player I enjoy watching that I only care about him personally and not the team.

    This is yet another example of the negativity in this forum going way overboard.

    I personally believe some members like doing this just to provoke an argument. Pathetic.
  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    I was with you up until that last sentence, RudyT. Beverley has performed very well next to Harden. While his defense may not be as elite as once thought--it is above average. Add to that good 3 pt. shooting, excellent rebounding and blocks for a PG and what more do you want? The reality is that Harden, in his current form, is not an ideal player next to a ball-dominant PG that can score, distribute, and defend well (those guys end up being called stars and won't want to play next to Harden).

    Lin also fills the bill--we've been down this road before and for the most part there just aren't many viable trades that would net us a REAL upgrade at pg. We will either wind up with a cheaper pg with a lower ceiling or a more expensive one with a higher one--it seems many around here believe we can get both, but I just don't see it.

  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    They are replaceable, but I don't know about being easily replaceable. They aren't that hard to find in the off-season, but ask the Bulls right now how easy it is to find a scorer on the market during the season.

    Guys like Nate Robinson and Mo Williams, and other streaky bench guys that can win you a few games, are always floating around in the off-season, but when's the last time a team with a need was able to pick up anyone like that during the season?

    I'm no LOF, and I don't think Lin will ever be the greatest fit for Harden, but I also don't think that the fit is so awful that we're better off trading him right now. Especially when he is unlikely to bring equal value in return.

    What the team really needs right now, with the emergence of T Jones at PF, is a starting PG that can play both ways and a cheaper backup C, and Lin, in a trade, is unlikely to net either.

    that's reasonable. I don't want Lin held up for fire sale. I do believe he has value. now whether that said value will get us something else we need is debatable

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    however players who score 25 every now and then are plentiful in the league. we have a couple in Brooks and Casspi. my point is if that's what you think Lin's value is then that's easily replaceable.

    They are replaceable, but I don't know about being easily replaceable. They aren't that hard to find in the off-season, but ask the Bulls right now how easy it is to find a scorer on the market during the season.

    Guys like Nate Robinson and Mo Williams, and other streaky bench guys that can win you a few games, are always floating around in the off-season, but when's the last time a team with a need was able to pick up anyone like that during the season?

    I'm no LOF, and I don't think Lin will ever be the greatest fit for Harden, but I also don't think that the fit is so awful that we're better off trading him right now. Especially when he is unlikely to bring equal value in return.

    What the team really needs right now, with the emergence of T Jones at PF, is a starting PG that can play both ways and a cheaper backup C, and Lin, in a trade, is unlikely to net either.

  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    I think what Rocketrick is saying is that haters will always find a reason to hate, when one reason disappears they find another.

    so what everyone who doesn't agree with his point of view is a hater? that's shallow minded thinking.I'm sure rocketrick doesn't need you as a mouth piece to explain his thoughts. he seems to be doing fine on his own.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    I think what Rocketrick is saying is that haters will always find a reason to hate, when one reason disappears they find another.

  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    If that was a true fact, then answer me this. Why don't the truly bad teams who struggle mightily on offense go out and sign a couple of those supposed players who can get you 25 every once in a while?

    It's simply not that easy and those who think Lin is easily replaceable on the Rockets and won't be missed are not being truthful with themselves in my opinion.

    In any event, I have no doubt Morey and Alexander appreciate Lin's game and value to this team and I for one would be completely shocked if he is traded this season (except for a whale of a trade like a Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge although neither of those teams are in need of a quality PG).

    Dime a dozen D-Leaguers that get 25 every once in a while don't even exist for the most part. The majority that manage 25 points once or twice a season are not even worth discussing as a potential future Rocket.

    Even you have to admit you went far beyond your usual rhetoric with this

    I know you're a LOF so I won't beat upon your golden boy. :lol:however players who score 25 every now and then are plentiful in the league. we have a couple in Brooks and Casspi. my point is if that's what you think Lin's value is then that's easily replaceable. I believe he is worth more, but was just expanding on the idea already being tossed about. maybe you overlooked that fact in your rush to defend him. I'm not surprised though, you seem unable to look at Lin objectively. so if you want to believe Lin is the greatest thing since slice bread go right ahead.........just know that I won't be taking that plunge with you :lol:

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago

    I'm not sure I understand this response.

    Neither do I.

  • SadLakerFan says 8 months ago

    That's right, so if the Lin Detractors can't blame Lin for having a bad season, instead blame Lin for other reasons. Makes perfect sense to me, oh yes.


    I'm not sure I understand this response.
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    Lin's contract was an economic decision made at the time by people who understand the economics of the team better than any of us. Would they have made the same deal if they knew James Harden was going to fall in their laps; I doubt it, but who knows?

    Anyway, these Lin debates are the most entertaining fan debates I have seen recently. If the Rockets plan towin the NBAtitle, there are three options for Lin.

    1. Lin is the starting PG. He sets aside his offensive game and concentrates on making the right entry pass, minimizing turnovers, hitting the occasional three, playing good team D. Plays the 4th qtr. Think Derek Fisher, Avery Johnson, Jason Williams. 34 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 5.9 assists, championship ring.

    2. Lin comes off the bench. Concentrates on providing energyon the second unitwith relentless drives to the hoop, picks and rolls and sometimes spectacular passes. Plays in the 4th qtr when his shot is going down. 23 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 3.5 assists, championship ring.

    3. Lin gets traded to a lottery bound team with other no established"go-to" scorer.Concentrates on his offensive game, and working with his young teammates to run up and down the floor for spectacular fast break points. Plays virtually the entire game . 38 mpg, 22.5 ppg, 6.7 assists. "Linsanity II" ensues, sales of Lin jerseys explode in China, team finishes in the lottery.

    I think Lin himself would be OK w/ 1 or 2. I am afraid that someLin fans would be happiest with 3.


    That's right, so if the Lin Detractors can't blame Lin for having a bad season, instead blame Lin for other reasons. Makes perfect sense to me, oh yes.
  • SadLakerFan says 8 months ago

    Lin's contract was an economic decision made at the time by people who understand the economics of the team better than any of us. Would they have made the same deal if they knew James Harden was going to fall in their laps; I doubt it, but who knows?

    Anyway, these Lin debates are the most entertaining fan debates I have seen recently. If the Rockets plan towin the NBAtitle, there are three options for Lin.

    1. Lin is the starting PG. He sets aside his offensive game and concentrates on making the right entry pass, minimizing turnovers, hitting the occasional three, playing good team D. Plays the 4th qtr. Think Derek Fisher, Avery Johnson, Jason Williams. 34 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 5.9 assists, championship ring.

    2. Lin comes off the bench. Concentrates on providing energyon the second unitwith relentless drives to the hoop, picks and rolls and sometimes spectacular passes. Plays in the 4th qtr when his shot is going down. 23 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 3.5 assists, championship ring.

    3. Lin gets traded to a lottery bound team with other no established"go-to" scorer.Concentrates on his offensive game, and working with his young teammates to run up and down the floor for spectacular fast break points. Plays virtually the entire game . 38 mpg, 22.5 ppg, 6.7 assists. "Linsanity II" ensues, sales of Lin jerseys explode in China, team finishes in the lottery.

    I think Lin himself would be OK w/ 1 or 2. I am afraid that someLin fans would be happiest with 3.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    that's really not that hard to do. players who get 25 every once in a while are a dime a dozen. players who get 25 every night would be the holy grail. :lol:


    Dime a dozen D-Leaguers that get 25 every once in a while don't even exist for the most part. The majority that manage 25 points once or twice a season are not even worth discussing as a potential future Rocket.

    Even you have to admit you went far beyond your usual rhetoric with this

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago Thank you uojoe82 and please come back more often with your informed and educated opinion. Not everyone on Red94 will agree with your take on Jeremy Lin but there is much in your post that is undisputed fact.
  • uojoe82 says 8 months ago

    Why is Lins contract still a topic? The fans dont pay his salary, a billionaire owner does. Aslo, his actual annual cap hit is less than what he actually gets paid. Has anyone looked at other contracts out there? I could argue that every team in the NBA has a player making more than Lin who isnt as productive or contributes less to there team.

    Some examples below (Salary and years are as of March 2013):

    Jeff Green 4 years, $35 million. Some games you dont actually know he played until you look at the box score. On a Celtics team with no offensive players he should be scoring 20 a game.

    Pau Gasol 2 years $39 million. Some Rockets fans want to trade Asik and Lin or this guy? Currently averaging 14 and 10. Good rebounding numbers but 14 points a game? Thats less than Lin who comes off the bench and is paid less than half.

    Javell Mcgee 4 years $44 million. Not sure if hes even better than Greg Smith

    Deandre Jordan 3 years $33 million. See above comment.

    Danny Granger 2 years $27 millon. Imagine if the Pacers had a player worth half that salary on there team instead of Granger.

    Rude Gay 3 years $57 million. Lottery winners look at Gay and think that he's the lucky one.

    Kris Humphries 2 years $24 million. To be fair the Nets probably thought he would attract all the Kardashian fans.

    Kendrick Perkins 3 years $25 million. What was the Thunders GM worst move, this contract or trading Harden?

    Deron Williams 5 years $98 million. Every player on the Nets (outside of Brook Lopez) could be on this list. WIlliams was great 3 years ago but each year he regresses like he was Baron Davis.

    Landry Fields 3 years $18 million. Huh?

    I could add another 20 names to this list but I think my point is made. Lin is overplaying his salary. Yes I said it. You can evaluate Lin's success this season 2 ways, via box score or by watching every game. Even though Im in Portland, OR ive had the pleasure of being able to watch him every game (and in person once so far this season) and what Ive seen is a player who continues to grow every week. Lin has a unique ability to know what his team needs through out the game. He is also unselfish (unlike Harden) and is the ultimate team player. During the Memphis game as McHale chose to go with Beverly in the 4th Lin could be seen on the bench cheering.Has anyone ever seen Asik do this?

    If you were to evaluate Lin based purely on the box score than he looks like he's an even better player. His shooting percentages have dipped in the last week yet he still is a 50/40/80 player. He gets to the line in a way that works within the teams offense. Harden gets to the line at the expense of the teams offense. Much has been made this season about Lins ability to drive to the hoop but he's always been an elite penetrator. He's just doing it more this year. His 3 point shooting has also cooled off but if the team needed a 3 Im not sure theres another player on the team Id want shooting it instead of Lin.

    Lin trade rumors were in the news this summer and many reports indicate that there was meager interest. I find this silly and think that many teams were interested but were hoping his asking price would be lower during the season. Unless the Rockets can get an All-Star caliber PG (Rondo, not Jrue Holiday) or package him for an Aldridge/Love then trading Lin would be stupid. Put Lin on the Lakers and he immediately becomes a 20 point scorer and if Kobe were to come back this season (as all reports indicate he will) the Lakers become a playoff team. Trade him to the Mavs for Marion and youve made the Mavs better at the Rockets expense. Can you imagine Lin and Monta Ellis taking turns attacking the hoop with Nowitzki around the perimeter waiting for kick out passes? How would the Rockets stop that? Trade Lin to a western conference team and you turn that team into a playoff team or a playoff team into a better playoff team (excluding the Kings and Pelicans). Trade him to a Eastern conference team and you get nothing in return of any value since 80% of the eastern conference teams are lottery teams who wont trade first round picks. The Knicks need a PG but what do they have in return? Iman Shumpert and Stoudamires expiring contract? Shumpert is a young talent who could be a borderline all-star if he were to improve on offense but how many knee surgeries has he had? Rondo for Lin and Asik is interesting but between Rondo and Harden no one else would ever see the ball. Also Rondo is an abysmal perimeter shooter who needs the ball to run the offense. I think he would kill Harden once he realizes that Harden likes to use 22 seconds of the shot clock and pass it off if he cant find a shot.

    In conclusion I hope to leave you readers with 2 takeaways.

    1) Lins contract is a non issue at this time. Youre not paying his salary, Leslie Alexander is. His cap hit this year and next is a friendly $8.5 million. His cash flow hit this year and next is more (unless your in finance or accounting this probably doesnt make sense but think of it as deferred compensation).

    2) Trading Lin for anything other than an All-Star would be detrimental to the team. He's the second best perimeter player on the team (you could argue it is Parsons but Parsons doesnt win games for you or can carry the team when Hardens out. He was great in the 4th quarter of the Grizzlies game and Im a big Parson fan). Every NBA team would love to have player like Lin. Instant offense, great team mate, elite rim attacker, give max effort on D, playmaker, all-around good guy, good community guy, ambassador to largest emerging fan base (China), and hard worker.

    Lin has his weaknesses, but most players do (including All-Stars). Chris Paul comparisons arent fair. Will he ever be an All-Star? Id put it at 50/50. He is an above average point guard and at times a great offensive player. He has transitioned into his new role on the team fantastically. Keep in mind he has yet to miss a regular season game as a Rocket.

    There are 4 NBA teams (including the Rockets) who regret no keeping Lin. The Mavs had him in summer league his rookie year but didnt see enough to keep him. The Warriors had him for an entire season but let him go in there futile attempt to sign Deandre Jordan. Rockets had him for less than a week but had too many PG already. We all know what happened with the Knicks. You think Melo regrets not telling management to keep Lin? I watched the Knicks play the Blazers a couple days ago and its obvious Melo is frustrated with the make up of his team. Melo and Lin would be the best team in the Atlantic division today. The Rockets let Lin go once and it made them look silly when he exploded on the scene with the Knicks. You really think they would trade him away for anything less than an All-Star? The risk of him going somewhere else and having success ( which is likely) could potentially cost GM Morey his job if the Rockets didnt immediatly win with Lins replacement. The Rockets wont make that mistake twice.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    that's really not that hard to do. players who get 25 every once in a while are a dime a dozen. players who get 25 every night would be the holy grail. :lol:


    If that was a true fact, then answer me this. Why don't the truly bad teams who struggle mightily on offense go out and sign a couple of those supposed players who can get you 25 every once in a while?

    It's simply not that easy and those who think Lin is easily replaceable on the Rockets and won't be missed are not being truthful with themselves in my opinion.

    In any event, I have no doubt Morey and Alexander appreciate Lin's game and value to this team and I for one would be completely shocked if he is traded this season (except for a whale of a trade like a Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge although neither of those teams are in need of a quality PG).
  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    Problem is RBF, we have already shown how thin we can get in the backcourt and the only ball handlers on our team are harden, lin and maybe Brooks. Lin is the kind of player that we can rely on when harden is out to give us 25 points every once in a while. Replace that.

    that's really not that hard to do. players who get 25 every once in a while are a dime a dozen. players who get 25 every night would be the holy grail. :lol:

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    Problem is RBF, we have already shown how thin we can get in the backcourt and the only ball handlers on our team are harden, lin and maybe Brooks. Lin is the kind of player that we can rely on when harden is out to give us 25 points every once in a while. Replace that.

  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    RBF, don't you agree that Lin is a better fit for the Rockets this season than last year, especially coming off the bench as a valuable key 6th man and being able to spot start for the Rockets when either Beverly or Harden is out with injury?

    I for one don't have much hope for the Rockets going forward if we have to count on AB to take over Lin's minutes if you get your wish and Lin is traded away for your desired second round draft pick.

    Lin's contract is what it is. At the time, it was the only way to guarantee that Lin would become a Rocket and not stay a Knick, by having a backloaded contract that the Knicks simply couldn't stomach financially due to the luxury tax and especially the repeater tax penalties in following seasons. I'm not sure why there is still outrage in our forum over Lin's contract. He's proven he's worth every penny and then some this season. Remember, he is only earning around $5 million this season, the same as last season. So if anything, Lin is being underpaid for his contributions to the team this season.

    Similar situation with Asik and the Bulls. Asik clearly was "underpaid" last season in year 1 of his contract that paid him a bit over $5 million. This season, well, perhaps so far he hasn't really earned the $5 million in year 2 of his actual earnings, but he is certainly an excellent insurance policy in case D12 misses some games due to injury, etc. In the end, it is pretty well known league wide that Asik will be traded.

    So the Rockets could easily have started last season with neither player without Morey's genius backloaded contract offers to both and if Harden hadn't also fallen in our laps a couple of days prior to the start of the regular season last year, just exactly where would the Rockets be right now? No chance D12 joins the Rockets without Harden and probably without having Lin and Asik also on the roster.

    first let me be clear on this.........Lin is worth more than a second rounder. while I don't like him he is still valuable to other teams. there are still teams out there that need a point guard. (think Milwaukee, Detroit or NY) second I do agree rocketrick that Lin is a better player overall this year than he was last year. third I'm not blaming Lin for signing his contract or Morey for giving it to him. at the time it was our best option, however we are a different team now.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago If Lin continues like this then he would easily win the 6th man award and in a couple years we could resign him to a friendlier contract around 6 million.
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    and what? give up on that second round draft pick :lol:all kidding aside.....I want Lin traded due more to his fit with this team and his contract statusthan some belief that he is unable to play effectively


    RBF, don't you agree that Lin is a better fit for the Rockets this season than last year, especially coming off the bench as a valuable key 6th man and being able to spot start for the Rockets when either Beverly or Harden is out with injury?

    I for one don't have much hope for the Rockets going forward if we have to count on AB to take over Lin's minutes if you get your wish and Lin is traded away for your desired second round draft pick.

    Lin's contract is what it is. At the time, it was the only way to guarantee that Lin would become a Rocket and not stay a Knick, by having a backloaded contract that the Knicks simply couldn't stomach financially due to the luxury tax and especially the repeater tax penalties in following seasons. I'm not sure why there is still outrage in our forum over Lin's contract. He's proven he's worth every penny and then some this season. Remember, he is only earning around $5 million this season, the same as last season. So if anything, Lin is being underpaid for his contributions to the team this season.

    Similar situation with Asik and the Bulls. Asik clearly was "underpaid" last season in year 1 of his contract that paid him a bit over $5 million. This season, well, perhaps so far he hasn't really earned the $5 million in year 2 of his actual earnings, but he is certainly an excellent insurance policy in case D12 misses some games due to injury, etc. In the end, it is pretty well known league wide that Asik will be traded.

    So the Rockets could easily have started last season with neither player without Morey's genius backloaded contract offers to both and if Harden hadn't also fallen in our laps a couple of days prior to the start of the regular season last year, just exactly where would the Rockets be right now? No chance D12 joins the Rockets without Harden and probably without having Lin and Asik also on the roster.
  • rockets best fan says 8 months ago

    "Detractors", I like that. I've been calling them Lin haters but like FSS said the word "haters" sounds like we're talking about rappers. I really hope the detractors come around.

    and what? give up on that second round draft pick :lol:all kidding aside.....I want Lin traded due more to his fit with this team and his contract statusthan some belief that he is unable to play effectively

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    Excellent post, 2016Champions!

    Yet, the Lin detractors still want Lin traded yesterday and will still be happy with just a 2nd round draft pick in return.

    "Detractors", I like that. I've been calling them Lin haters but like FSS said the word "haters" sounds like we're talking about rappers. I really hope the detractors come around.

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    His per 36 numbers right now are pretty sweet right now:

    18.6 ppg
    5.6 ast
    1.5 stl
    3.6 TO
    50% fg
    41% 3pt

    These numbers are very similar to his per 36 the last 30 games of last season, so it's not really that small of a sample size, he has been playing at this level for about 50 games now.


    Excellent post, 2016Champions!

    Yet, the Lin detractors still want Lin traded yesterday and will still be happy with just a 2nd round draft pick in return.
  • vonsteve says 8 months ago

    He seems to be great at uncontested rebounds but not so great at rebounding in traffic. The interesting question might be why he is getting so many uncontested opportunities.

    I've noticed that too. My theory is that he does most of his work before the shot to get in such dominant position that by the time the ball hits iron the defenders have given up on any realistic shot at an offensive rebound. At least that's what I like to tell myself.

  • Chai says 8 months ago

    ^Agreed.

    Thought Lin did as good as a job he could with Tony Allen on him (and casually hitting Lin in the face every now and then). Other than Parsons and Casspi in the 4th, he was really the only one that could create anything for the Rockets. Especially liked his burst of speed to take the loose ball away from Prince in the 3rd for an easy lay in. His ability to suddenly accelerate and just run ahead of everyone always surprises me

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    ^Next year? :blink: What about this year? Have you already written this one off? Aside from some turnover issues he's playing pretty solid ball.

    After watching last night's game I'd like to see some stats for their 3 pt% when assisted vs. un-assisted. That makes all the difference in the world and too often the offensive movement bogs down and whoever has the ball will just jack up a shot from 27-28 feet. Just about everyone on the team is guilty...Coach Norman Dale does not approve....

    Hoosiers.jpg

  • Richards says 8 months ago

    I hope Lin to be better next year.

    He is playing different role as starter, while either Harden or Bev out, and 6th man.Also play PG and SG positions.

    Juggling roles and positions can take rhythm out of player but he was able to produce good stats.

    This is on-job training and very valuable.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    His per 36 numbers right now are pretty sweet right now:

    18.6 ppg

    5.6 ast

    1.5 stl

    3.6 TO

    50% fg

    41% 3pt

    These numbers are very similar to his per 36 the last 30 games of last season, so it's not really that small of a sample size, he has been playing at this level for about 50 games now.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    He's a 6th man, can dominate the game when hot and not much when not. I'm not expecting any more.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    Getting back to the point about sample size:

    Lin's first 6 games: 55% from the field, 44% from 3pt

    Lin's last 6 games: 45% from the field, 14% from 3pt

    My point here is that we shouldn't get too excited (or too down) or draw far reaching conclusions (good or bad) from small sample sizes.

  • BrentYen says 8 months ago

    Is Lin's defense better? I don't know.

    I agree that he is a better distributor. His ability to see the floor well is kind of what sets Lin apart from the other 6th man/ scoring guards in the league. But he hasn't been able to fully utilize that skill in Houston so far. The system here isn't like the system that D'Antoni used to run or what San Antonio runs now - where you run P&R after P&R until the PG finds the breakdown in the D. The Rockets run it sometimes, but it never looks very organized and they don't run it consistently enough for Lin to really show off his good vision.

    There is a reason why they don look organized. Just saying :P

  • Cooper says 8 months ago Yeah it's not real hard to be better than barea or terry on defense.
  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago Barea and Terry are horrid on defense. I think Lin is average.
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    But Lin plays better defense and distributes better than both of those guys.

    Is Lin's defense better? I don't know.

    I agree that he is a better distributor. His ability to see the floor well is kind of what sets Lin apart from the other 6th man/ scoring guards in the league. But he hasn't been able to fully utilize that skill in Houston so far. The system here isn't like the system that D'Antoni used to run or what San Antonio runs now - where you run P&R after P&R until the PG finds the breakdown in the D. The Rockets run it sometimes, but it never looks very organized and they don't run it consistently enough for Lin to really show off his good vision.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago

    But Lin plays better defense and distributes better than both of those guys. However, I think Lin needs to channel his inner Terry/Barea. They, along with Neal/Bayless/Crawford/etc... attack whenever they have the ball. Once Lin goes into full out attack mode no matter what, he'll take his game to the next level. I just think he's still a year or 2 away from being as great as he could be.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    I thought for a while that Jason Terry might be a better comparison for Lin. Terry was a nominal starting PG who was really best suited as a scoring guard off the bench. But I don't know. Terry was a much better shooter.

    Terry is really the best possible example of an offense only scoring guard when you consider that he was the 2nd leading scorer on a championship team. That's not too shabby.

    Lin is a hard guy to find a comparison for. He's a legit 6'3" but has the game of a shorter player. He gets to the rim, but sometimes struggles to finish, and he definitely can't finish over anyone, and on the perimeter, he can't consistently elevate to get his shot off over a defender unless he's left open. He's almost like a taller version of J.J. Barea if Barea was in permanent '11 playoffs mode. (Please Lin fans, don't take that as an insult. Barea played amazing during the '11 playoffs. At times, he was the 3rd best scorer on a championship team, which isn't too shabby either.)

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago

    Lin's on my team. I hope he does well.

  • Drew in Abilene says 8 months ago

    I agree with RudyT1995 that their styles of play are not the same, but from a cap standpoint, his role with the Rockets, and the stats he's putting up, they're pretty similar thus far.

    A friend of mine who roots for the Spurs heard me talking about Lin in anticipation for the game against San Antonio on Nov. 30th. He laughed at me for thinking Lin was comparable to Ginobili circa 2007. I get the feeling that many others, Spurs fans or not, would share the sentiment. Though I'll be the first to admit that Jeremy will need to consistently put up these kind of numbers, as I walked away from my conversation with Spurs friend, I thought to myself how so many are quick to deify the greats of the past to the exclusion of greatness in the present. Then again, others swing too far the other direction and get caught up in the moment and forget how excellent players were in the past.

    I say all that to say that the jury's still out on Jeremy Lin's long term production, but what he's done so far in this young season seems like a huge step for him personally and for the Rockets. Considering how well his production compares to one of the best known and most acclaimed 6th men I've ever seen, that's cause for optimism for me.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    I guess it makes sense to compare Lin to Ginobili based on the roles that they play for each team. But not if you compare their play styles.

    Ginobili in his prime was a euro-stepping 6'5" 2 guard that could run the offense, nail contested threes, get to the rim, and had explosive athleticism around the basket. That sounds like someone on the Rockets roster, but it's not Lin.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Indeed, that was a great post! I would rank Lin ahead of Parsons right now. He seems more fluid on the court and his three point % is really good. Parsons may pass him by season's end once he gets the intricacies of that pump fake down and his three pointers start falling.

    Lin is currently sporting a TS% of .644. I can just see Morey grinning from ear to ear looking at that number. (Also, for those who care Lin's PER is 18.9 right now)

    daryl-morey.jpg

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago

    As is often the case with threads about Jeremy Lin, discussion seems to have trailed off of the original topic. In an effort to reengage with the original question of whether Lin is currently justifying his contract and if he will do so in the future, I think it would be interesting to read your perspectives on what your expectations for him are. If you think he's under-performing, what are some statistics that you think he should be producing that he isn't currently. If you're one of the Lin supporters, what expectations do you have for him and what evidence do you have that he is meeting those expectations?

    My major expectations have been that Lin improves in ways that are both statistically verifiable and that I can see in his game on a night to night basis. As for the eye test, he looks more confident than last year, has a much more fluid shooting stroke, and can drive left. Those are all visible improvements that make me more excited about the present and hopeful that maybe this isn't his ceiling as a player. As for stats to back that up what I've seen, check out these numbers Lin has posted this year versus last year. (All stats pulled from basketball-reference.com)

    2012-13 2013-14
    FG% .441 .511
    3FG% .339 .412
    2FG% .483 .571
    FGA 10.9 10.4
    PTS 13.4 16.3

    Lin is shooting a higher percentage on both 2s and 3s. He's also shooting more threes than last year while cutting down on twos. His scoring has increased by almost three points per game, but he's taking fewer shots than last year.

    His turnovers have creeped up ever so slightly from 2.9 to 3.1, but so have Harden's (from 3.8 to 4.3) and Parsons' (1.9 to 2.1). This indicates to me that part of this uptick for three of our best play-makers could be in part due to roster turnover and familiarity issues, along with growing pains in trying to learn how to feed Howard in the post. My hunch is that those numbers will drop below last year's average for all three of these guys as the become more accustomed to playing with their new teammates and dropping the ball to Dwight for post-ups.

    Not going to lie, I want a championship for Houston. So I'm going to compare Lin to Manu Ginobili from 2007. Both were capable of starting but were asked to come off the bench. Both were cap hits for their team of a little more than 8 millions dollars. Neither had to be the best or second best player on their team, but were asked to take over games when the stars had an off night. Here are the comparisons so far:

    Manu 06-07 Lin 2013-14
    FG% .464 .511
    3FG% .396 .412
    2FG% .505 .571
    FGA 11.4 10.4
    TO 2.1 3.1
    PTS 16.5 16.3

    For the record, I decided to compare them before I looked at the stats, and would have still posted them if they had swung way in favor of Ginobili. Instead, Lin stacks up really favorably against the Argentinian. Manu was the third best player on the Spurs when they won in 2007. I think it would be fair to argue that Lin is the fourth best player on the Rockets right now, after Harden, Howard, and Parsons. If Jeremy Lin can continue to perform at 2007 Ginobili-like levels, I think he exceeds my expectations, fully justifies his salary, and makes us a stronger contender for an NBA title.


    Great post.
  • Drew in Abilene says 8 months ago

    As is often the case with threads about Jeremy Lin, discussion seems to have trailed off of the original topic. In an effort to reengage with the original question of whether Lin is currently justifying his contract and if he will do so in the future, I think it would be interesting to read your perspectives on what your expectations for him are. If you think he's under-performing, what are some statistics that you think he should be producing that he isn't currently. If you're one of the Lin supporters, what expectations do you have for him and what evidence do you have that he is meeting those expectations?

    My major expectations have been that Lin improves in ways that are both statistically verifiable and that I can see in his game on a night to night basis. As for the eye test, he looks more confident than last year, has a much more fluid shooting stroke, and can drive left. Those are all visible improvements that make me more excited about the present and hopeful that maybe this isn't his ceiling as a player. As for stats to back that up what I've seen, check out these numbers Lin has posted this year versus last year. (All stats pulled from basketball-reference.com)

    2012-13 2013-14

    FG% .441 .511

    3FG% .339 .412

    2FG% .483 .571

    FGA 10.9 10.4

    PTS 13.4 16.3

    Lin is shooting a higher percentage on both 2s and 3s. He's also shooting more threes than last year while cutting down on twos. His scoring has increased by almost three points per game, but he's taking fewer shots than last year.

    His turnovers have creeped up ever so slightly from 2.9 to 3.1, but so have Harden's (from 3.8 to 4.3) and Parsons' (1.9 to 2.1). This indicates to me that part of this uptick for three of our best play-makers could be in part due to roster turnover and familiarity issues, along with growing pains in trying to learn how to feed Howard in the post. My hunch is that those numbers will drop below last year's average for all three of these guys as the become more accustomed to playing with their new teammates and dropping the ball to Dwight for post-ups.

    Not going to lie, I want a championship for Houston. So I'm going to compare Lin to Manu Ginobili from 2007. Both were capable of starting but were asked to come off the bench. Both were cap hits for their team of a little more than 8 millions dollars. Neither had to be the best or second best player on their team, but were asked to take over games when the stars had an off night. Here are the comparisons so far:

    Manu 06-07 Lin 2013-14

    FG% .464 .511

    3FG% .396 .412

    2FG% .505 .571

    FGA 11.4 10.4

    TO 2.1 3.1

    PTS 16.5 16.3

    For the record, I decided to compare them before I looked at the stats, and would have still posted them if they had swung way in favor of Ginobili. Instead, Lin stacks up really favorably against the Argentinian. Manu was the third best player on the Spurs when they won in 2007. I think it would be fair to argue that Lin is the fourth best player on the Rockets right now, after Harden, Howard, and Parsons. If Jeremy Lin can continue to perform at 2007 Ginobili-like levels, I think he exceeds my expectations, fully justifies his salary, and makes us a stronger contender for an NBA title.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago Lol. I don't necessarily like it, but I don't think they
    Worship Lin. There are just as many delusional people who hate on Lin for no valid reason. But you are correct that the problem won't go away.
  • huitlacoche says 8 months ago

    just trade Lin . Then lin haters can be at peace and lin lovers can be at peace.

    I do believe the first chance he has to get out of here hewill get out.

    Peace for Lin fans? Not really. His delusional fans will just annoy the fan base of whatever team he gets traded to. Linpostles will continue to deflect blame away from Lin and onto the rest of the team/coaching staff. Trading him won't solve Lin fan's problems, it will just pass the problem off onto another team.

    For reference, look at Tebow. When he was traded from the Broncos to the Jets, one of the popular Jets forums had to create a separate section just to contain all the Tebow crazies. The Tebow problem didn't go away via trade, it just got transferred to his new team.

  • BrentYen says 8 months ago

    The Lin fans on this site don't seem to have a lot of historical perspective. There's no question in my mind that Lin could be the starting PG on a championship team - he could be like Fisher (7-9 ppg, 3-4 assists, stay in front of your guy on D, hit the occasional big three). J-Will and Chalmers were not dissimilar. Instead he's being given a chance to develop in a Ginobili-type presence. He's way more likely to have big stat nights in that role, and Lin fans should embrace that (especially since frankly, some Lin fans seem a tad more interested in his fortunes than that of the team as a whole).

    That's why they are Lin fans...:P

  • datruth says 8 months ago

    just trade Lin . Then lin haters can be at peace and lin lovers can be at peace.

    I do believe the first chance he has to get out of here hewill get out.

  • SadLakerFan says 8 months ago The Lin fans on this site don't seem to have a lot of historical perspective. There's no question in my mind that Lin could be the starting PG on a championship team - he could be like Fisher (7-9 ppg, 3-4 assists, stay in front of your guy on D, hit the occasional big three). J-Will and Chalmers were not dissimilar. Instead he's being given a chance to develop in a Ginobili-type presence. He's way more likely to have big stat nights in that role, and Lin fans should embrace that (especially since frankly, some Lin fans seem a tad more interested in his fortunes than that of the team as a whole).
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    Thanks for the welcome. I've been reading regularly since sometime last season. I just usually don't post.

    Not at all. Lin didn't tell me, you or anyone else what to post. From what I've observed, Lin does nothing controversial or polarizing. But there's too many people who seem to see only Lin's positives or see only Lin's negatives. It's these type of single-issue peole who tend to make Lin look all polarizing. Most of the time I just wish the pro-Lin and anti-Lin people would both just take a chill pill and put everything in better perspective by just discussingRockets issues rather than perceived Lin issues. Why do some people choose to see everything that happens with the Rockets from the Lin perspective? It's the Rockets perspective that's important.

    I don't remember anyone accusing Lin of doing anything polarizing.

    I do remember one post that said Lin is going to be polarizing no matter how he plays, the implication being that Lin can't control how fans and haters react to him. Which seems to be the same point that you are trying to make.

  • SDrake says 8 months ago

    Welcome to Red94 SDrake. Aren't you kind of making the case for the other side here, you're proving Lin is polarizing with what you wrote here.

    Thanks for the welcome. I've been reading regularly since sometime last season. I just usually don't post.

    Not at all. Lin didn't tell me, you or anyone else what to post. From what I've observed, Lin does nothing controversial or polarizing. But there's too many people who seem to see only Lin's positives or see only Lin's negatives. It's these type of single-issue peole who tend to make Lin look all polarizing. Most of the time I just wish the pro-Lin and anti-Lin people would both just take a chill pill and put everything in better perspective by just discussingRockets issues rather than perceived Lin issues. Why do some people choose to see everything that happens with the Rockets from the Lin perspective? It's the Rockets perspective that's important.

  • feelingsupersonic says 8 months ago

    Lin isn't polarizing. Lin has done nothing to be polarizing. Any polarization is caused by his fans or his detractors. Please tell me what Lin has done to be polarizing?


    Welcome to Red94 SDrake. Aren't you kind of making the case for the other side here, you're proving Lin is polarizing with what you wrote here.
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    ^Exhibit A..... :rolleyes:

    Lol. Too true.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    ^Exhibit A..... :rolleyes:

  • SDrake says 8 months ago

    It seems like Jeremy Lin is going to be polarizing whether he's playing well or not. To me, I think Lin has done a great job earning his salary this year, whether you're looking at how much he's actually paid or is cap hit. Small sample sizes have been known to trick folks, but I'd be more than happy if Lin kept up this kind of production for the next two years. In my mind, that would more than justify both his salary and cap hit.

    Lin isn't polarizing. Lin has done nothing to be polarizing. Any polarization is caused by his fans or his detractors. Please tell me what Lin has done to be polarizing?

  • Drew in Abilene says 8 months ago

    It seems like Jeremy Lin is going to be polarizing whether he's playing well or not. To me, I think Lin has done a great job earning his salary this year, whether you're looking at how much he's actually paid or is cap hit. Small sample sizes have been known to trick folks, but I'd be more than happy if Lin kept up this kind of production for the next two years. In my mind, that would more than justify both his salary and cap hit.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago I believe he's mentioning the "creative" things that were done in Minnesota.
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    Besides, if you guyshave a cap problem, Kevin McHale is an expert atfinding creative solutions.


    Welcome to a winning NBA team blog, SadLakerFan, perhaps over the next few months we can help you change your name to HappyRocketFan !!

    Anyway, just have to add that Coach McHale has none, or very little to say, in regards to Rockets salary cap issues going forward. Why? Probably because of that bad ass dude, Daryl Morey. You should google him sometime when you're not so depressed about your Lakers team.............
  • SadLakerFan says 8 months ago

    I've been reading a few of the threads on this Forum; the Lakers aren't that bad, but they are terribly uninteresting. Some of the articles aregreat, but an article extrapolating a 9-game performance by one isolated player andthen assessing whether it statistically justifies one year's salary in a multi-year contract - well, it's OK as a thread topic on an internet Forum, but no team in professional sportsassesses big-ticket contracts like that.Putting things "in perspective" by comparingone year ofWestbrook's max contract to one year of Lin's (three-year?) deal is evenmore detached from reality. Seems to me that amore logical approach would bethe cost of the deal overthe contract term (which includes the cap hit) compared with therevenues over the term attributable to that cost (which implicates contribution to team performance, impact on attendance, ticket pricing, sponsorships andTV deals, the revenue sharing arrangements, the time value of money, etc.). You then compare that with other similar opportunities utilizing those same funds. [Note: random unjustified Celtics-targeted derogatory remark> Besides, if you guyshave a cap problem, Kevin McHale is an expert atfinding creative solutions.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    Given that the people writing NBA paychecks are generally billionaires the cap hit is all that matters. Les, who is probably not the top half of NBA owners as far as net worth, spends millions of dollars a year just signing players to compete in training camp. A good portion do not make the final roster.

    Yep, all the partial guaranteed contracts Les has dished out on D-League players speaks for itself. Most of these investments don't pay off, but every now and then one does--Patrick Beverley was one. I'm sure a lot of GM's were interested in giving Beverley a chance but not many owners were willing to fork out the $2 million to buy out his overseas contract, so while Morey deserves a lot of credit for being an awesome GM we should also give Leslie Alexander credit too for all the millions he has spent on Morey's gambles.

  • NorEastern says 8 months ago

    Jeremy's is the only back loaded contract of the players listed here. His cap hit is $8.3 million next year. So I'm not exactly sure what your point was?

    Given that the people writing NBA paychecks are generally billionaires the cap hit is all that matters. Les, who is probably not the top half of NBA owners as far as net worth, spends millions of dollars a year just signing players to compete in training camp. A good portion do not make the final roster.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    If you are going to do that then you could but the 5 million he is making this year thus making him one of the best contracts for a PG not in a rookie contract. Its easy to manipulate numbers to prove your point. His cap hit is 8.3 no matter what he gets paid the last year, the only one who should be concern should be the Team writing the paycheck, we should worry about salary cap maximization.

    Thank You!

    What thenit just said is absolutely correct, what Alexander Leslie is paying Lin is none of our business. If we're worried about our cap situation then worry about Lin's actual salary on the books which is around $8.3 this year and $8.3 next year--bargain! Hopefully we can re-sign him for the same amount when that time comes.

  • BrentYen says 8 months ago

    His points are pretty clear to me

  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    Just to put things in perspective, these are the highest actual salaries for PGs for 2014-2015.

    1. Chris Paul $20.1 mil
    2. Deron Williams $19.8 mil
    3. Derek Rose $18.9 mil
    4. Russell Westbrook $15.7 mil
    5. Jeremy Lin $14.9 mil
    6. Tony Parker $12.5 mil

    One of those names is not like the others.


    Jeremy's is the only back loaded contract of the players listed here. His cap hit is $8.3 million next year. So I'm not exactly sure what your point was?
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    I did not find this piece very enlightening, but perhaps that's because i've been watching NBA basketball for 25 years...

    or maybe because it's hard to take the author seriously when he throws around statements like:

    Dwight Howard is clearly not back to his dominant self. According to my tallies, in terms of both defense and rebounding – where Dwight makes his money – he has been just average, which means that he has been awful.

    Huh? Isn't he is tied with Kevin Love at about 15rpg? Leads the league? That's average? Your "tallies" seem to fly in the face of ACTUAL rebounds? lol what a joke.

    Clean it up editors, clean it up


    In my opinion, D12 is not playing nearly at the level I was expecting and hoping he would be playing at by now and that has certainly had an impact on some of the Rockets losses this season.

    It's nice that he is one of the leaders in the NBA in rebounding.

    However, we need more from D12. Lots more from D12 if the Rockets are to be a major playoff contender this season.

    Heck, even Asik was near the top of the rebounding stats last season.
  • rocketrick says 8 months ago

    Many have criticized Lin and rightfully so but to say that there was a prevailing opinion on Red94 that Lin should be traded for a second round pick is definitely overstating your point and not fair to most of us who have criticized him. Do you even remember who said that, if you do perhaps you should direct it towards that forum member in a constructive manner.


    I definitely remember who it was but I don't feel like starting a firestorm right now.
  • lawprofsr says 8 months ago

    This whole discussion is based on an analysis of a small sample of numbers. Jeremy is having a great start and his numbers are comparable to some of the league's best right now. Not only that, some big names like Derrick Rose are not having a great start, understandably in his case. So that numerical comparison is an objective truth. Is it an indication of value over the course of the year? Well, if the other names on the list don't improve and Lin doesn't decline, then yes, by definition. Rudy's comparison with star point guards is just another way of saying, based on the name recognition and familiarity with the reliable performance of those guards that he thinks Lin won't stay in their league. That's a fair observation, but it's not inherently persuasive. If Lin keeps it up, he will be a star and belong on that list. Only time will tell. Odds are that he won't, simply because most people don't. And Jeremy has been pretty streaky in the past. But he's in position to try, which is more than can be said for most players in the league.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago

    What I'm saying is, we won't know whether he'll live up to next year's salary until next year. NOTHING he does this year justifies next year salary, just as NOTHING he does this year means that he won't justify next year's salary.

    Now from the small sample size we've seen this year, he's more than lived up to the 5 million he's getting paid and the 8.3 million cap hit. Of course the pace he's on is unsustainable, but we'll see at the end of the year whether he earned this year's salary or not.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    What I'm trying to say is that his actual salary for a year or for any player should be based on cap hit.

    I was just trying to lend some perspective on Knickabokkaz enthusiastic assessment of Lin's worth. He used the $15 mil figure, so it was relevant for me to use it for comparison.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    You can't determine value after 9 games, but yet you try and determine next years value with 0 games??? SMH

    Determine next years value? What are you talking about.

    I put up the list to put some perspective on Knickabokkaz's claim that Lin is worth the $15 mil he'll get next year because of how he's played 9 games this year.

    There are 6 names on the list and 5 of them are proven All-stars. Guess who's the one that's not.

    Guys that are worth $15 mil have proven that they are elite over multiple seasons. Lin hasn't even played 2 full seasons yet.

  • thenit says 8 months ago

    What I'm trying to say is that his actual salary for a year or for any player should be based on cap hit. The only person who should care is the one signing the pay check. You should judge them on their cap hit, as fans we are not the one writing the cheques. So the year before and this year his cap hit is 8.3 and we can judge his performance on that.

    If you want to mention it in trade scenarios than that 14.9 salary do come in play but not if he plays out his contract.

    Yes we can't judge someone on 9 games, but his efficiency will decline, but for 5 million and if he has slightly better % on fg and 3s he would be a bargain, but I don't base it on that number, as a 8.3million player, I expect more than what he did last year, and so far he has exceeded those numbers.

  • timetodienow1234567 says 8 months ago You can't determine value after 9 games, but yet you try and determine next years value with 0 games??? SMH
  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    If you are going to do that then you could but the 5 million he is making this year thus making him one of the best contracts for a PG not in a rookie contract. Its easy to manipulate numbers to prove your point. His cap hit is 8.3 no matter what he gets paid the last year, the only one who should be concern should be the Team writing the paycheck, we should worry about salary cap maximization.

    Those are the straight salary numbers for next year, shown with context. There was no manipulation or selective sampling of data. Them's just the facts.

    As for his value this year, it's only been 9 games. You can't determine value after just 9 games. Lin may end up being a bargain at $5 mil. But we won't know until later in the season.

  • thenit says 8 months ago

    Just to put things in perspective, these are the highest actual salaries for PGs for 2014-2015.

    1. Chris Paul $20.1 mil

    2. Deron Williams $19.8 mil

    3. Derek Rose $18.9 mil

    4. Russell Westbrook $15.7 mil

    5. Jeremy Lin $14.9 mil

    6. Tony Parker $12.5 mil

    One of those names is not like the others.

    If you are going to do that then you could but the 5 million he is making this year thus making him one of the best contracts for a PG not in a rookie contract. Its easy to manipulate numbers to prove your point. His cap hit is 8.3 no matter what he gets paid the last year, the only one who should be concern should be the Team writing the paycheck, we should worry about salary cap maximization.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    He's worth every bit the 15 million, because his shot is rediculously better and is hot as hell right now, he's going to get even BETTER like us Lin fans BEEN saying.

    Just to put things in perspective, these are the highest actual salaries for PGs for 2014-2015.

    1. Chris Paul $20.1 mil

    2. Deron Williams $19.8 mil

    3. Derek Rose $18.9 mil

    4. Russell Westbrook $15.7 mil

    5. Jeremy Lin $14.9 mil

    6. Tony Parker $12.5 mil

    One of those names is not like the others.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    I'm so happy to see Jeremy Lin finally showing everyone what he can do when he's healthy.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    Stephen-A-Smith-Thumbs-Up.gif

    I find this offensive and disruptive. In future please take a moment to think about what you're posting before you post it, ask yourself what you're trying to accomplish with this post and whether or not your message is being delivered in a constructive manner.

    JUST KIDDING! LOL I hope you moderators don't take yourselves too seriously that you can't laugh at yourselves from time to time :)

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    Stephen-A-Smith-Thumbs-Up.gif

  • Knickabokkaz says 8 months ago MOST players would just fold under the microscope that Lin is under. Every little thing is analyzed compared to everyone else on the team. Theres no argument with that. What I love about Lin the most is how strong minded this "kid" is. No Lin hater ever saw this coming how great he's shooting, and will say "it's only" 9 games! Yeah they been saying that since LINsanity, it comes to a point where the obvious has to be taken seriously. He is worth 15 mill next year because, he's only going to get even BETTER
  • Richards says 8 months ago

    Lin mind is very healthy even if he was in tough situation. Those player won't go away easily without fighting hard.

  • Knickabokkaz says 8 months ago @clutchfans: In the 5 games he has played for the #Rockets w/o James Harden, Jeremy Lin is averaging 24.0 points on 47.4% FG (17-29 3P) and 8.0 assists.

    @dmorey: the work @JLin7 put in this off-season on his shot is impressive #staypositive #keepworking

    I live in Ny if there's ANYONE that is the BIGGEST Jeremy Lin critic, it's STEPHEN A SMITH! Even HE said! "JEREMY LIN IS PLAYING FANTASTIC!" and he was the biggest supporter of Lin leaving Ny!! Then yesterday on his show with Ruan Ruocco in Ny admitted to wanting Lin BACK!

    He's worth every bit the 15 million, because his shot is rediculously better and is hot as hell right now, he's going to get even BETTER like us Lin fans BEEN saying. And I'll tell you this. Quote me on it. JEREMY LIN IS THE ONLY GUY YOU CANY RELY ON TO RUN THE TEAM AND SCORE IF HARDEN IS INJURED OR NOT ON HIS GAME, (look at the clutchfans post I put in the beginning) andddd HE CAN EASILY PUT UP 20 A GAME WITH THE SHOOTING %s he's having if he didn't average just 9 shots per game prior to the previous 2 games!
  • linonlyfan says 8 months ago

    A lot of interesting stuff in this article and subsequent discussion. As a LINONLYFAN, I only care that he improves and todays game against philly, 34 pts on 10-19 shooting, 12 assists, 5 rebounds and 8 turnovers perfectly captures everything he is doing better and everything he isn't doing better. Urgh.

    The turnover thing is almost pure mental now. 2x he threw the ball to Parsons for long breakouts unsuccessfully. I think there must have been 4 drives into traffic with no plan. Please stop now, I think i like the odds of a pull up jumper better than driving into 3 defenders hoping for a call. Lin is consistently beating his first defender smartly now and just needs to get the 2nd part of the drive more consistent.

    The most encouraging thing about Lin is his attitude. He was never a overconfident guy, and last year he suffered for it. But thats driven him to get better and i think as he improves this will start to build a more sure base of confidence. He finally calmed down and hit a 3 a little late in OT last night, but completely went away from his ball handling game when the team needed to create.

    For you guys calling for Lin to start (thankfully none here so far). Stop now. Lin can continue to get reps against slightly weaker opposition, put up efficient games like this (minus the turnovers) and help the team win from the 6th man position. And save James Harden's best for crunch time situations. That starting crap is just crap. And yeah, he is starting to look ok against the contract.

    Side note: You can't go to Howard only late in the game and expect him to deliver. He needs to get a feel of how the team is defending him and Philly got that double team quirk saved only for the last possession because we never went to him enough. And he needs more reps against good 1v1 post defenders in game situations. Most of the time Philly was doubling and there wasn't enough intuitive cutting action from anyone aside Parsons and Casspi.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    The main article seems to be saying that Lin might be worth $15 mil because his contributions so far have been slightly better than Harden's who makes about $14 mil.

    I'm not sure if that's really a fair comparison. Harden has played with a sore back, two sore feet, a sore right knee, and a sore wrist, and hasn't looked like a $14 mil guy all season.

    It might be fairer to say that Lin has been earning his $5 mil this season and that Harden hasn't been earning his.

  • RudyT1995 says 8 months ago

    I played with Sports Vu and tried the following to characterize Lin's impact on offense:

    eFG% >= 48% (Effective Field Goal % - adjusted for value of 3 pointers)

    This narrows the field to 101 players, but doesn't adequately describe the kind of scorer Jeremy is - someone who drives to the basket. So I added:

    Drives PTS >= 2, and MIN > 30, and

    Who does this leave?

    1) LeBron James (MIA) - $19M

    2) Evan Turner (PHI) - $6.7M

    3) Tony Parker (SAS) $12.5M

    4) Jeremy Lin (HOU) $5.2M

    5) Dwyane Wade (MIA) - $18.5M

    Take a look:http://on.nba.com/1fCfVLS

    Interesting. Thoughts on this model?

    Any system that ranks Evan Turner number 2 might be flawed. Just sayin. ^_^

    I'm just kidding. I actually like Evan Turner.

    The model might be useful later in the season, but right now the sample size is too small to really tell us anything.

  • Rahat Huq says 8 months ago

    He seems to be great at uncontested rebounds but not so great at rebounding in traffic. The interesting question might be why he is getting so many uncontested opportunities.

  • j_wehr says 8 months ago

    JG, good idea about the PDF. I am having technical difficulties at the moment but later I will upload a form that people can use to keep their own tallies.

    I'm glad someone pushed back on the Dwight rebounding point. Dwight grabs an amazing number of rebounds -- that's undeniable -- but after watching him closely for the past 7 games, I'm not convinced that he's a great rebounder. As my tallies show, there are a lot of times that he fails to box out, fumbles a rebound, and/or allows his man to sneak behind him for an easy put back. All of these things balance out the impressive number of rebounds that he does get. As a broader point, if you want to know a player’s value as a rebounder, there are better ways to measure it than the raw number of rebounds. The best measure would probably be the percentage of rebounds the _team_ recovers when a missed shot enters a player's zone. I wish SportVU were capturing that. By that measure, I'm pretty sure Dwight's rebounding performance would not look nearly as impressive.

  • linfanity says 8 months ago

    I played with Sports Vu and tried the following to characterize Lin's impact on offense:

    eFG% >= 48% (Effective Field Goal % - adjusted for value of 3 pointers)

    This narrows the field to 101 players, but doesn't adequately describe the kind of scorer Jeremy is - someone who drives to the basket. So I added:

    Drives PTS >= 2, and MIN > 30, and

    Who does this leave?

    1) LeBron James (MIA) - $19M

    2) Evan Turner (PHI) - $6.7M

    3) Tony Parker (SAS) $12.5M

    4) Jeremy Lin (HOU) $5.2M

    5) Dwyane Wade (MIA) - $18.5M

    Take a look:http://on.nba.com/1fCfVLS

    Interesting. Thoughts on this model?

  • BrentYen says 8 months ago

    M...may I ask what wrong with that Reb tallies? I believe he meant, if D12 was his dominant self, he would get more Rebs, ahead of Love by a larger margin.

  • ItsAllGoodBro says 8 months ago

    I did not find this piece very enlightening, but perhaps that's because i've been watching NBA basketball for 25 years...

    or maybe because it's hard to take the author seriously when he throws around statements like:

    Dwight Howard is clearly not back to his dominant self. According to my tallies, in terms of both defense and rebounding – where Dwight makes his money – he has been just average, which means that he has been awful.

    Huh? Isn't he is tied with Kevin Love at about 15rpg? Leads the league? That's average? Your "tallies" seem to fly in the face of ACTUAL rebounds? lol what a joke.

    Clean it up editors, clean it up

  • BrentYen says 8 months ago

    I agree. ROx really need Hardens, Parsons and Bevs' 3pt shootings and I believe it will come back, especially Harden and PB. I hope Lin can keep up the good work as well. We need everyone to win.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    So funny!

    It really is hilarious how silly haters can be! You have a great sense of humor, that's why you're one of my favorite moderators :)

  • feelingsupersonic says 8 months ago

    FSS,

    I appreciate the advice, the fact you're taking an interest in helping me help me elevate the quality of my constructive posts is something I greatly value. In this case my post was designed to be read in a humorous manner as opposed to a constructive one, and I was referring to Lin haters in general as opposed to someone in particular, but please keep up the good work!

    2016 Champions



    So funny!
  • NorEastern says 8 months ago

    Very nice! I loved your thought process and your analysis. I am fairly comfortable that Hardens, Parsons and Bevs 3 point shooting should revert to their mean over the course of the season. If so the Rockets are going to be just fine.

    I agree with the comments that many people seem to dislike Lin for no apparent reason. While Lin is obviously no Harden, I always felt that he had everything needed to succeed as a starter in the NBA. I felt sure that Lin this season was going to come back this season with a much improved shooting touch. While it is still early in the season, it is looking like Lin could start at either the PG or SG positions for over half the teams in the NBA.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    Many have criticized Lin and rightfully so but to say that there was a prevailing opinion on Red94 that Lin should be traded for a second round pick is definitely overstating your point and not fair to most of us who have criticized him. Do you even remember who said that, if you do perhaps you should direct it towards that forum member in a constructive manner.

    FSS,

    I appreciate the advice, the fact you're taking an interest in helping me help me elevate the quality of my constructive posts is something I greatly value. In this case my post was designed to be read in a humorous manner as opposed to a constructive one, and I was referring to Lin haters in general as opposed to someone in particular, but please keep up the good work!

    2016 Champions

  • Richards says 8 months ago

    Lin always play better with Bev and Tony Douglas. This year he started playing well with Harden. Hope he can continue it.

  • Richards says 8 months ago

    j_wehr, could you produce a .pdf sheet that we can print out and use to keep the tallies (and might help get everyone scoring in the same manner). I would be curious to give it a go. I really like this idea--both the original concept and the idea of adding more people to balance any potential bias. I'd like to think I am unbiased, but I know that's not true--believing one is unbiased is a bias itself. :P

    don't worry don't worry you and Huq are very fair and I do enjoy reading your posts. Keep it up. Cheers!

  • uojoe82 says 8 months ago

    Harden is such a talented player but I feel that he is closer to Carmelo Anthony with a beard then Kobe, KD35 or Wade.

  • feelingsupersonic says 8 months ago

    "We should trade him for a 2nd round pick before it's too late" said the Lin haters.

    Many have criticized Lin and rightfully so but to say that there was a prevailing opinion on Red94 that Lin should be traded for a second round pick is definitely overstating your point and not fair to most of us who have criticized him. Do you even remember who said that, if you do perhaps you should direct it towards that forum member in a constructive manner.
  • uojoe82 says 8 months ago

    Any player who is aggressive and attacks the rim is going to turn the ball over. Its a function of being aggressive. This article and analysis reinforces everything Ive seen so far. The Rockets offense is at its best when Lin has the ball. Its fluid and every player on the floor must be defended by the other team. Has anyone else noticed that Harden never passes the ball to Lin? How many times do we have to watch Lins defender help on Harden only to see Harden take a long range step back shot when Lin is standing open waving his hands in the air? Harden thinks that a contested step back shot is better than Jeremy having an open three (Lin is the best 3 point shooter on the team so far).

    Another aspect of Lins offense that hasnt been mentioned yet is that when he and Asik are on the floor together, Asik suddenly becomes much better at offense. Yes, most of the time Asik gets a pass from Lin on a pick and roll or after Lin penetrates Asik gets fouled, but so what? Isnt that good offense?

    Harden is the superior player to Lin, that is unquestionable. But Harden needs to do something because what he's currently doing is unsustainable. Shooting 33% but making it up by making 12 free throws in order to score 30 points a night isnt a formula for success (unless success is defined by the point total in the box score). Harden is such a talented player but I feel that he is closer to Carmelo Anthony with a beard or Kobe, KD35 or Wade.

    I find it disappointing that Harden didnt learn anything from watching KD and Westbrook play together for so many years. The Thunder have the perfect model for having a backcourt who both need the ball. Im not comparing Lin/Harden to Wesbrook/Durant as an apples to apples comparison but it is an example of 2 ball dominate players co-existing successfully.

    The season is still in its infancy and there is still a lot of basketball to go. Lin is playing great but its not unexpected. All his deficiencies from the previous year were areas that he himself said he would focus on (3 point shooting and going to the left). A great characteristic of successful people is "self awareness" and the ability to work on weaknesses.

    Long term the way Harden is playing is not sustainable unless the Rockets are happy with a first round exit again. McHale coaches as if his salary is based on how many shots Harden takes (and Hero ball shots count double) and it amazes me how he continues to run a offense that basically says let Harden do whatever he wants. Lin makes everyone better and the offense reflects that.

    Thank you for its post and I hope to see many more that show how underappreciated Lin. I hope McHale reads this.

  • 2016Champions says 8 months ago

    "We should trade him for a 2nd round pick before it's too late" said the Lin haters.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    I took to youtube to try and find some evidence of all this disrespect Jeremy Lin is getting. In this day and age, with nearly everyone possessing a recording device on their person at all times I would expect to find something on youtube since it is so prevalent. As it turns out, this was the most disrespectful thing I could find...

  • seetow1 says 8 months ago

    Fantastic analysis, mad props for your effort in tabulating all the data in an easy to understand format!

  • rm90025 says 8 months ago

    I'm happy for Lin. His game has improved and he will be a hot commodity in the trade market this year and free agent market next year.It's puzzling that people don't think he had a good year last year, when he in fact had a very good if not great second half and pushed the team into the playoffs. As for his role on the Rockets, being the 6th man is good for him but probably bad for the Rockets. That starting rotation is a mess. Dwight Howard is basically the same above-average player he was in LA with occasional moments of greatness which are offset by his woeful free throw shooting. James Harden is a poor shooter inside the 3 pt. line, turns it over a lot, slows down the offense and is poor on defense. Parsons is a good player who is not shooting as well as he can, but that will turn around. I feel bad for Asik. I think he's really good but Houston is not the place for him any longer, even though he was the anchor of a team that made the playoffs the previous year. Beverley plays hard, has a good attitude but is limited.

    For Lin avoiding being on the floor with Howard and Harden except for limited stretches gives him the freedom to play his game and perhaps win 1 or both over during the course of the year. His ability to dictate to the defense, score and assist is what is keeping the Rockets in games while McHale figures out how to get the starters to play well. However, I don't think Howard or Harden much care for Lin. They seem to barely tolerate him and often use him as a proxy for their own problems with each other. Harden almost ruefully refuses to swing the ball Lin's way in key game moments. That last 5-6 minutes of regulation against Toronto was a good example. McHale may find that Jeremy Lin is his best chance to hold on to that job. Right now, I don't see Houston getting a top 4 seed, and that's probably not the result that Houston's management is looking for.

  • Buckko says 8 months ago

    I always said Lin was going to improve, remember all those long debates RBF?

  • formido says 8 months ago

    > In half court sets, he still has a habit of using up an exorbitant amount of shot clock dribbling, probing, picking up his dribble, forcing up a terrible shot just outside the low block. Some of this, of course, is on the stagnant Rockets offense with that we've seen for extended stretches.

    So, you're saying his 66% true shooting isn't enough or are you saying that it's not enough to be efficient, you have to do it in a style that doesn't offend your particular sensibilities?

    > This would seem to match the eye test. Lin's turnovers have drawn attention, but aside from those, he hasn't done much else "bad." Doesn't take bad shots the way Harden does. The turnovers are just so egregious (when he's jumping in the air with nowhere to go) that we happen to remember them more. He's been fantastic this year.

    Perhaps, but I don't see people feeling the need to qualify positive assessments about Harden with "his refusal to pass to anyone other than for an obvious assist opportunity" or "his low percentage, ugly ISOs in every late game situation" or "his awful ball watching on defense" is so egregious that we happen to remember them more[1>. Every player has qualifications, but many receive unqualified praise regularly, like Harden. Aside from Lin fans, though, it seems few people can just acknowledge that Lin is playing at a high level and has been since the beginning of preseason and trending steadily up since mid season last year.

    [1> Not that Harden doesn't get those criticisms obviously, sometimes and in some quarters. It's just not paired with every positive comment 100% of the time, like with Lin.

  • Alituro says 8 months ago

    "For example, even I don’t trust my own tallies on Asik because I have a hard time accepting that the man has ever done anything wrong."

    ...quite simply one of the best things I have read in a while. The guy just plays his butt off and is a great defender. (Offense is a different story but, no one is perfect)

    My feelings too, on his offense.. at least you can say that Asik realistically knows his limitations, you rarely see him trying for anything but a dunk. He doesn't have the athletic ability to be a regular highlight reel of blocked shots like Howard, but his D, technically, is far, far superior and quite possibly the best I've seen, maybe ever... I could go on forever, but the bottom line is: FREE TERRENCE JONES and KEEP ASIK!

  • Knickabokkaz says 8 months ago

    In half court sets, he still has a habit of using up an exorbitant amount of shot clock dribbling, probing, picking up his dribble, forcing up a terrible shot just outside the low block. Some of this, of course, is on the stagnant Rockets offense with that we've seen for extended stretches.

    Same could be said for James Harden.

  • ays says 8 months ago

    This would seem to match the eye test. Lin's turnovers have drawn attention, but aside from those, he hasn't done much else "bad." Doesn't take bad shots the way Harden does. The turnovers are just so egregious (when he's jumping in the air with nowhere to go) that we happen to remember them more. He's been fantastic this year.

    In half court sets, he still has a habit of using up an exorbitant amount of shot clock dribbling, probing, picking up his dribble, forcing up a terrible shot just outside the low block. Some of this, of course, is on the stagnant Rockets offense with that we've seen for extended stretches.

  • John P says 8 months ago

    "For example, even I don’t trust my own tallies on Asik because I have a hard time accepting that the man has ever done anything wrong."

    ...quite simply one of the best things I have read in a while. The guy just plays his butt off and is a great defender. (Offense is a different story but, no one is perfect)

  • Rahat Huq says 8 months ago

    This would seem to match the eye test. Lin's turnovers have drawn attention, but aside from those, he hasn't done much else "bad." Doesn't take bad shots the way Harden does. The turnovers are just so egregious (when he's jumping in the air with nowhere to go) that we happen to remember them more. He's been fantastic this year.

  • thejohnnygold says 8 months ago

    j_wehr, could you produce a .pdf sheet that we can print out and use to keep the tallies (and might help get everyone scoring in the same manner). I would be curious to give it a go. I really like this idea--both the original concept and the idea of adding more people to balance any potential bias. I'd like to think I am unbiased, but I know that's not true--believing one is unbiased is a bias itself. :P