For as long as I’ve been watching this team, especially since the time I’ve been covering it here on this page, in the minds of the fans and Houston sports commentariat, there has been some understood path towards contention. As far-fetched as the plan may have been, its existence was settling, evidence of greater hope and a sense of direction. Hakeem, Clyde, and the gang would hold on for one last run. Steve, Cuttino, and then Yao would grow into a power, and then after them, McGrady and Yao – maybe they’d stay healthy. Later, the hope was to pair Chris Bosh with Yao, but we know how that ended, and we’re still waiting after all these years to get back that iPad.
The Harden era always involved some eye towards free agency, driven by public comments regarding future cap flexibility. First, the [successful] target was Dwight Howard. Then, Carmelo Anthony, Bosh again, and LaMarcus Aldridge. Daryl Morey’s focus was squarely pinpointed upon finding that elusive third star to complete his Big Three.
The moment the Rockets thought the chase had finally culminated, with the acquisition of Ty Lawson, fresh off an appearance in the Western Conference Finals, everything started to crumble. Now just one star remains, but also an expected personnel bill of around $95 million in 2017, with the cap not expected to exceed $102 million, contrary to very early reports. This is the first time I can remember that the commentariat has not kept an eye towards the next summer with a specific target in mind. Blake Griffin appears to be the only desirable unrestricted option, but its unlikely the team would be able to clear up the room necessary to make a competitive offer, especially after the Harden extension. They’ve already invested $20 million a year in Ryan Anderson, a player who plays the same position.
Thus far, the Rockets have looked impressive in pre-season, leading the pack in offensive rating, and trailing only Golden State in net rating. There is empirical evidence that such success during exhibition play should not be entirely dismissed. Before the Patrick Beverley injury, I even argued that I saw no reason the Rockets couldn’t duplicate the success they enjoyed in 2015, predicting 51 wins. I’m in the minority in that sentiment, but I don’t think the opinion is entirely far-fetched.
But across the board, one would be hard-pressed to find even anyone who viewed this team, as currently constructed, as an actual championship contender. Most predictions have Houston ranging somewhere from middle of the pack among Western Conference playoff teams to somewhere amidst the bottom seeds. But all will argue that even if the Rockets somehow exceed all expectations and finish higher than the Clippers and Spurs, the Golden State Warriors still remain as a virtual lock to return to the Finals.
So then what are the Rockets’ goals on the season? I posited some months ago, with the West’s outcome virtually inevitable, that now would be the perfect time to simply change the narrative surrounding this team. To that end, I argued, the removal of Dwight Howard, coupled with a high-octane, aesthetically pleasing offense would work to reverse the negativity entrenched in the public’s perception of this franchise. Several of you noted, as have I, that the early returns have already been apparent, most notably in the form of intrigue surrounding James Harden’s positional change.
But if Les Alexander’s plan bears fruit, and the Rockets remain relevant at the gate, what is Houston’s plan to return to contention? To be honest, I don’t really know. If the Rockets were merely mediocre defensively, it would be seen as a major achievement. And for as great as they should be on offense, they will surely struggle for the ten or so minutes each night that James Harden will need to sit; the Rockets have gone completely in on one star, when the desired model just some years ago was to accumulate three.
The Houston Rockets seem to me like a team that’s just rolling the dice and seeing how far their best player can take them. They’ve pushed all their chips in and spent big money on complementary pieces that mesh with his strengths and finally, they’ve hired a coach who can utilize his abilities to the fullest. This is all good. But I’ve become so geared to look ahead that I’m left wondering what comes next. Maybe like D’Antoni’s Suns, the Rockets will be even better than expected, and the artificial ceiling I’ve implanted upon their projected success is unfair. But those Suns teams had Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, and at one point Joe Johnson – other young stars that propelled their level of play in support of Steve Nash. This Rockets team doesn’t seem to have any internal avenues for major growth, unless you think that highly of Clint Capela. I’ve already explained how its unlikely that outside established help might ever be on the way. The biggest apparent hope is that Morey can strike gold in acquiring an unproven player the way D’Antoni did in developing Boris Diaw.
I’m going to enjoy this season. I’ve already seen enough to know that. And in a year where, more than any other in recent memory, the outcome is predetermined, maybe the novelty of an entertaining product is enough to hold the tide. But in the back of my mind the thought will remain that I’m not entirely sure what we’re trying to do. That’s a bit unsettling.
