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@  cointurtlemoose : (31 March 2015 - 04:26 AM) Capela = 2019 MVP
@  jorgeaam : (31 March 2015 - 01:56 AM) There's no way that was a jump ball
@  Fury : (31 March 2015 - 12:47 AM) Dwight's dressed. Could he see a few 4th quarter minutes in a pinch? Could use his D on Valanciunas.
@  blakecouey : (31 March 2015 - 12:19 AM) Impressive so far. Scary good dunks we're seeing
@  Mario Peña : (31 March 2015 - 12:16 AM) Could we be witnessing the CLINT CAPELA GAME?!?
@  Mario Peña : (30 March 2015 - 11:31 PM) Yes
@  jorgeaam : (30 March 2015 - 11:01 PM) Is he also out for the playoffs?
@  Cooper : (30 March 2015 - 07:38 PM) Yeah mchale and crew will have to get creative on D thats a glaring mismatch
@  YaoMan : (30 March 2015 - 07:07 PM) Maybe the approach will be similar to yesterday afternoon by have N Johnson (maybe KJ) on the opposing PG. And sometimes even Ariza as he has done in the past. Will depend on the rest of the match ups for the rest of the line-up.
@  majik19 : (30 March 2015 - 06:41 PM) I would be more upset if it was the Beverly from last year we were missing... but Bev just hasn't been great this year. Scary to imagine two 35+ PGs chasing Curry, Conley, Lillard, Monta, Westbrook, and Paul around though...
@  cointurtlemoose : (30 March 2015 - 06:19 PM) Moreso bummed about losing his hype/emotion/agitation than anything else. We'll be fine on offense, and though his D will be slightly missed, Johnson encouraged me yesterday in that regard
@  Mario Peña : (30 March 2015 - 06:12 PM) Beverley is opting for surgery on the ligament so will be out for the season including the playoffs per Jonathan Fagen if The Chronicle.
@  Mario Peña : (30 March 2015 - 02:36 AM) I don't think that will happen till the last game or so. McHale, Finch and JB have done a good job this year and I trust them.
@  jorgeaam : (30 March 2015 - 01:33 AM) I'm still excited about the fact that D-MO and T-Jones are still missing and the rockets keep winning
@  jorgeaam : (30 March 2015 - 01:18 AM) Time to get Harden some rest
@  Mario Peña : (30 March 2015 - 01:15 AM) Rockets move into 2nd in the Western Conference with today's win and the Grizzlies loss in San Antonio!!!
@  jorgeaam : (29 March 2015 - 06:48 PM) Ask a wish!
@  cointurtlemoose : (29 March 2015 - 05:04 PM) A 2nd quarter Nick Johnson sighting!!!
@  cointurtlemoose : (29 March 2015 - 05:00 PM) Good thing the Wizards look more asleep than we do. Hehe. But our D has been pesky so far too
@  majik19 : (29 March 2015 - 04:43 PM) rockets super sloppy to start today. they're barely even getting shots up.

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#1 Sir Thursday

Sir Thursday

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 02:02 AM

I've been following some work done by a poster on Cavs: The Blog in which he uses regression analysis to determine which if any of the physical measurements of draftees available before a draft correlate with success at an NBA level. Here is an introduction to his methodology, and he put up the first post in the series yesterday.

Now, I find this interesting because it seems like the sort of thing the Rockets would be all over. There are clearly some strong correlations between certain physical tools and NBA success, but they are not necessarily the ones that GMs would have traditionally slathered over. Somehow I imagine that it would be much harder to obtain the sorts of proprietary statistics that Morey and co. favour from College ball given how fragmented the scene is, and the alternative is this sort of thing.

His post about point guards is one that we had a stake in over this past offseason with the signing of Scott Machado (admittedly, we didn't actually draft him, but given that we've picked him up as a rookie I feel like it's justified to include him in this conversation). According to draftexpress.com, Machado posted a 3/4 court sprint time of 3.23 seconds, which places him just outside the core group of <3.2s upperclassmen PGs that this analysis predicts will do well in the NBA. If Machado's performance matches up with the regression, you would expect him to contribute around 1 OWS next year. For comparison, that's somewhere between John Lucas and Beno Udrih, both of whom are competent but unspectacular. I'd take that over Douglas based on how he's played so far though!

Anyway, I thought this post and the series as a whole seems like a really insightful piece of analysis and that it was worthy of a wider audience. What do the rest of you think?

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