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@  txtdo1411 : (03 July 2015 - 09:45 PM) So Collison is reportedly not happy with the Kings meeting with FA PGs. That could be a good plan B if we don't get Aldridge. I know it has been discussed previously, but this is the first time I've seen it reported that Collison actually might be available.
@  txtdo1411 : (03 July 2015 - 09:41 PM) No way they trade Paul. They can still be a good team, and might be able to pick up Koufus or someone similar that will still make them competitive in the West. Championship team? Probably not, but Paul isn't going anywhere.
@  Cooper : (03 July 2015 - 08:15 PM) Wonder if the clips would think about trading Paul? Probably still a playoff team but they're the only one that got significantly worse.
@  Mario Peña : (03 July 2015 - 07:55 PM) I dunno, I think for the Cavs 16 is fine for Thompson but maybe not other teams. Looks like the Mavs are getting Jordan which I don't really like but may be okay now that I think about it. The Clippers get worse and the Mavs prolong the inevitable and will still be a fringe playoff team.
@  majik19 : (03 July 2015 - 07:01 PM) 16 mil a year IS way too much for Tristan Thompson. and 12 mil/yr on the surface seems reasonable to me, but if the "slow footed big man" is going extinct (re: Andrew Bogut in the Finals), then that may be a terrible contract
@  cointurtlemoose : (03 July 2015 - 04:19 PM) And cmon, Josh, just look at that franchise right now. You don't wanna go there...
@  cointurtlemoose : (03 July 2015 - 04:17 PM) It's pretty crazy, I have to reprogram my brain on what is and isn't a good contract. Though I still think 12/year for Asik and 16/year for Tristan Thompson are way too much
@  txtdo1411 : (03 July 2015 - 02:21 PM) So if Ariza was a FA this year, he could easily get a $12-14 million per year contract right? I mean I know the cap is jumping soon, but this has been nuts!
@  Cooper : (03 July 2015 - 02:19 PM) Kings talking to Smith. I'm a little worried they have loads of cap after that ridiculous trade and not many guys left worth spending on.
@  Mario Peña : (03 July 2015 - 01:16 PM) I'm okay with that. He probably won't last long but I like how the Mavs fans are all happy and claiming it's great value. Funny stuff.
@  jorgeaam : (03 July 2015 - 07:17 AM) Well, Wes is a Mav
@  jorgeaam : (03 July 2015 - 04:56 AM) plus, jordan is probably getting 20 million a year, so I don't even think they can get both of them as they already have 24 million for parsons and dirk
@  jorgeaam : (03 July 2015 - 04:55 AM) Yeah Wes is apparently going there, but he's going to cost them a lot, $15 million or more / year
@  majik19 : (03 July 2015 - 03:21 AM) I read that Wes Matthews is close to signing there. If they signed Matthews and Jordan, they are a younger version of the team they had last year. But they would lack a creator.
@  bboley24 : (03 July 2015 - 02:49 AM) Is anyone noticing the complete implosion of the Dallas Mavericks?
@  jorgeaam : (03 July 2015 - 01:55 AM) If Phoenix lands Aldridge, they are going to be pretty scary
@  Cooper : (02 July 2015 - 08:58 PM) They're going big for Aldridge, if they miss, that trade and 4yrs for TC won't look real good.
@  thejohnnygold : (02 July 2015 - 08:38 PM) It's entirely possible the Rockets will simply return the same squad as last season and be better off for it
@  thejohnnygold : (02 July 2015 - 08:37 PM) Suns just pissed off Markieff Morris by trading away his brother. Remember, they agreed to sign on the cheap in order to stay together.
@  Mario Peña : (02 July 2015 - 08:19 PM) I'm definitely enjoying the Lakers fall as well.

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#1 Sir Thursday

Sir Thursday

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 02:02 AM

I've been following some work done by a poster on Cavs: The Blog in which he uses regression analysis to determine which if any of the physical measurements of draftees available before a draft correlate with success at an NBA level. Here is an introduction to his methodology, and he put up the first post in the series yesterday.

Now, I find this interesting because it seems like the sort of thing the Rockets would be all over. There are clearly some strong correlations between certain physical tools and NBA success, but they are not necessarily the ones that GMs would have traditionally slathered over. Somehow I imagine that it would be much harder to obtain the sorts of proprietary statistics that Morey and co. favour from College ball given how fragmented the scene is, and the alternative is this sort of thing.

His post about point guards is one that we had a stake in over this past offseason with the signing of Scott Machado (admittedly, we didn't actually draft him, but given that we've picked him up as a rookie I feel like it's justified to include him in this conversation). According to draftexpress.com, Machado posted a 3/4 court sprint time of 3.23 seconds, which places him just outside the core group of <3.2s upperclassmen PGs that this analysis predicts will do well in the NBA. If Machado's performance matches up with the regression, you would expect him to contribute around 1 OWS next year. For comparison, that's somewhere between John Lucas and Beno Udrih, both of whom are competent but unspectacular. I'd take that over Douglas based on how he's played so far though!

Anyway, I thought this post and the series as a whole seems like a really insightful piece of analysis and that it was worthy of a wider audience. What do the rest of you think?

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