The Rockets Daily – October 18, 2013

  John Eby | October 17, 2013 at 11:28 pm

That’s More Like It – Earlier this week, Bill Simmons floated the trade idea of Omer Asik straight up for Ryan Anderson, which I expressed some doubts about. On Thursday, David Thorpe went on TrueHoop TV with some much more ambitious trade targets for Houston: Chris Bosh or Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes.

As Henry Abbott rightly points out, Joe Sports Fan looks at a Bosh-Asik trade, checks their points per game averages, and gets confused. But Asik posted a far higher RAPM (+4.5) than Bosh (+1.9) last season. Any player that brings similar value to Asik will clearly win the eye test over the big man, which will no doubt lead to backlash from casual fans of any team that trades for him. That may be enough to scare off any GM that is as concerned with making a mediocre or rebuilding team watchable than with winning a championship.

U Mad Bro? – Dwight Howard isn’t happy about Tobias Harris wearing his old jersey number. Howard does hold almost every significant franchise record in Orlando, but jersey retirements are typically reserved for players who 1) are loyal to the team, or 2) win that team a championship. Howard should just focus on getting his jersey hung in the rafters at the Toyota Center.

Welcome Back- According to the team’s site, Asik is back in practice. Now the team can start experimenting with playing Howard and Asik together, and we can start arguing over whether that experiment should be referred to as Howsik or Asward.

Also, everybody look at Patrick Beverley:

To wit: The average plus/minus produced by a Rockets starter stands at a robust +8.65 as of this writing. The two constants in the club’s starting lineup, James Harden and Howard, sport an average plus/minus of +9 and +6.25, respectively, through four games.

Other notables: Patrick Beverley leads the team with a plus/minus average of +10.5 per game and Houston’s preseason’s breakout star to date, Omri Casspi, has a healthy average of +7.25. In three games so far, Chandler Parsons’ plus/minus stands at +8.3 and Jeremy Lin comes in at +4

 Moment of Zen – Hakeem Olajuwon teaches Amare Stoudemire that the secret to creating space in the post isn’t in a powerful posterior. It’s all about the sneaky elbow.

Got any sweet links or suggestions? Email them to jeby901@gmail.com or message @EbyNews on Twitter.

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• rockets best fan says 4 months ago

  actually I'm on the fence in the Asik debate. no doubt there are several good reasons for keeping him, even if he is unhappy and the combo of him and D-12 don't work. equally there are several good reasons to trade him and bring in more pieces to round out the team better. Yes it's a nice problem to have, but hard to make the call on this one. I leaning more in the direction of trade, but have the opinion on hold until I can get a look at the attempt of playing them together. I don't believe it will work, but am optimistic none the less. if it works it could catapult us to the championship, but if it doesn't we should be quick to move Asik and get pieces that can help us more

• thejohnnygold says 4 months ago

  Asik is worth every penny the same way a back-up QB in the NFL is worth every penny. Barring a ridiculously good trade offer, our best value for Asik is to keep him and play him as the staff sees fit. Whether you see it as $16.6M or $20M--it doesn't matter. He will help make the difference between home court in the playoffs or going on the road. Historically/Statistically (whichever you prefer) this is pretty important.

  Some articles/facts for support:

  (Apparently I am inept at finding the full historical data on this--had to resort to Bleacher Report just to get this little tidbit)

  "From 1998-2008, home teams in the regular season won 7,021 games while losing 4,569 games for a winning percentage of 60.6.

  During this same period of time, home teams in the postseason won 513 games while losing only 278. The winning percentage in the playoffs for home teams was 64.9 (more than four percentage points higher than it was for home teams in the regular season)."

  Also found this stuff:

  Game 7 Quick Facts
  
  -- The NBA has had 112 Game 7’s in playoff history
  
  -- The home team is 90-23 (79%) in those games
  
  -- The NBA Finals has featured 17 Game 7's and the road team has won just three (17.6%)of those finales.
  
  --Ten of the last 12 Game 7 outcomes have been decided by double digits

  http://wagesofwins.com/2013/04/19/home-court-advantage-in-the-nba-playoffs/

  http://www.whowins.com/home.html (I found this website to be a little hard to navigate and seems to be geared towards amped up gamblers.)

  The Effect of Rest (Caution - may contain math-like content)

• blakecouey says 4 months ago

  I'm in agreement value diminishes each day on Asik. I want to see him play with Dwight though to see what we'd be missing. I wish we could get Ibaka for Asik, but I don't see that as having any chance of reality.

• rocketrick says 4 months ago 2nd paragraph edit: "Interestingly enough, I full --YEAR-- later, Jeremy Lin may be the more valuable player in the mid- to longer-term as a Rocket."
  
  4th paragraph edit: "No doubt, Asik has much more potential return in investmemt at this moment --THAN LIN--; however, there could be a time where Lin returns more than Asik ---(as difficult as that may be to comprehend) --- while at the same time Asik --- "at this moment in time up to and including about 90 days forward" is much more valuable on the trade market but at the same time also more valuable as a key member of the Rockets in this same time period and possibly beyond for some time.
  
  Meaning that if the Rockets determine Asik is too valuable to trade for the returns offered, instead, simply offer Lin to open the same salary slot going forward as both were signed for essentially the same dollar amount and same time period.
• rocketrick says 4 months ago Not to mention the facts that James Harden was a Thunder player and D12 was a Laker player, exactly 12 months ago to the day. All the Rockets had at that moment were the recent signings of 2 players for "top dollar" named Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik.
  
  Interestingly enough, 1 full later, Jeremy Lin may be the more valuable player in the mid- to longer-term as a Rocket.
  
  Needless to say, the Rockets, thanks to Mr. Morey and Mr. Alexander, have the glorious position to determine which of these 2 players should be traded for more valuable pieces in return.
  
  No doubt, Asik has much more potential return in investment at this moment; however, there could be a time where Lin returns more than Asik while at the same time Asik returns more to the current roster going forward.
  
  It's just a really nice spot to be in, quite unusual in the overall NBA landscape, where 2 equally paid players could be available for the right price that play completely different positions and whose contracts basically end at the same moment.
• rocketrick says 4 months ago

  the list may be a little restrictive......I'll grant you that :)however how many teams willing to spend is not the point I'm making. the point I'm making is teams may trade for him, but what we net in the process will decrease according to how much of that 2 year contract we have him under decreases. we can not expect to reasonably receive the same package or value at the trade deadline as we can get right now. in the past Morey has been known for trading players at peak value. if he stays true to himself, he has to be feeling the pressure to make a trade rather than lose value on his asset. the basic decision the Rockets are making at this time in my eyes is........ if Asik and Howard don't work well enough to garner hope that it will become a key lineup do you trade Asik? that's a choice.........because there is a plan A and PLanB. Asik is a true professional. whether he plays 30 minutes a game or 15 he will preform his job so as to keep his value up. that provides us with the best center combination in the league by a long shot. we can have that for 2 years. now we may lose Asik at the end of his contract, but who knows.....if we win the championship will it make him decide to stay? if not we may be in position to replace him within that 2 year time frame. at any rate we get a top notch player for at least 2 years...................plan B trade him..........if we go with plan B then it would be reasonable to assume we would like to reap maximum value from moving him, that said time is from now until about a month into the season. after that the return net will began to decrease with each month that passes. now the Rockets may be willing to absorb some measure of lost to give the D-12/Asik combo a look, but trust me if they elect to go plan B a trade will happen soon

  
  I respect your opinion, Mr. RBF, however, I do believe it is much too soon to start panicking about the payback for an Asik trade. As things have progressed, I am becoming more and more a believer of keeping Asik on the roster for the here and now, rather than moving him for possibly one or two eventually inconsequential players.
  
  No doubt, the Rockets and Mr. Morey will realize they have the "perfect trade", were that to occur, for Asik. However, in the meantime, I believe it is fully to the Rockets advantage to keep Asik for as long as possible for any number of reasons unnecessary to expound upon as true Rockets fans should realize Asik's value.
  
  It will be quite difficult for Asik to accept the downgrade in playing time; however, he has much upside to look forward to in a short period of time thanks to Morey and the Rockets shorter than usual 3-year contract, rather than the typical 4- 0or 5- year contract.
• rockets best fan says 4 months ago

  I think that list is a bit restrictive. Dallas, for example, have no qualms about spending money, particularly if it doesn't affect the salary cap maths. Similarly Portland and Golden State. There are probably a few more owners who would be happy to spend if the team was really going to benefit...you really think someone like Dan Gilbert wouldn't mind paying if it put them over the top? There are only a few teams that I know are averse to spending big money - OKC, Chicago, Sacramento (at least until recently - no idea what their new owners will be like), Phoenix and Memphis are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head that have made explicit "this move has been made to save us large amounts of salary costs" type deals recently, anyway.

  ST

  the list may be a little restrictive......I'll grant you that :)however how many teams willing to spend is not the point I'm making. the point I'm making is teams may trade for him, but what we net in the process will decrease according to how much of that 2 year contract we have him under decreases. we can not expect to reasonably receive the same package or value at the trade deadline as we can get right now. in the past Morey has been known for trading players at peak value. if he stays true to himself, he has to be feeling the pressure to make a trade rather than lose value on his asset. the basic decision the Rockets are making at this time in my eyes is........ if Asik and Howard don't work well enough to garner hope that it will become a key lineup do you trade Asik? that's a choice.........because there is a plan A and PLanB. Asik is a true professional. whether he plays 30 minutes a game or 15 he will preform his job so as to keep his value up. that provides us with the best center combination in the league by a long shot. we can have that for 2 years. now we may lose Asik at the end of his contract, but who knows.....if we win the championship will it make him decide to stay? if not we may be in position to replace him within that 2 year time frame. at any rate we get a top notch player for at least 2 years...................plan B trade him..........if we go with plan B then it would be reasonable to assume we would like to reap maximum value from moving him, that said time is from now until about a month into the season. after that the return net will began to decrease with each month that passes. now the Rockets may be willing to absorb some measure of lost to give the D-12/Asik combo a look, but trust me if they elect to go plan B a trade will happen soon

• Sir Thursday says 4 months ago

  Memphis moving Gay helped them on the court though. It wasn't only a financial maneuver.

  I was thinking more the Speights salary dump that preceded it (IIRC they traded him to Cleveland for basically nothing). Everyone was saying they were going to trade Gay to get under the tax, but in the end they had already done the legwork that meant they could have kept him. Hollinger decided to deal him anyway, which you're right was for on court reasons.

  ST

• timetodienow1234567 says 4 months ago Memphis moving Gay helped them on the court though. It wasn't only a financial maneuver.
• Sir Thursday says 4 months ago

  I agree to some degree that the owners with deep pockets won't be as frightened, but it will still net less in trade. however that only leaves a few teams at the table....ie NY, Brooklyn, LA, Boston and Miami. most of these teams don't have anything we would be interested in that they would also be willing to give up

  I think that list is a bit restrictive. Dallas, for example, have no qualms about spending money, particularly if it doesn't affect the salary cap maths. Similarly Portland and Golden State. There are probably a few more owners who would be happy to spend if the team was really going to benefit...you really think someone like Dan Gilbert wouldn't mind paying if it put them over the top? There are only a few teams that I know are averse to spending big money - OKC, Chicago, Sacramento (at least until recently - no idea what their new owners will be like), Phoenix and Memphis are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head that have made explicit "this move has been made to save us large amounts of salary costs" type deals recently, anyway.

  ST

• rockets best fan says 4 months ago

  Asik's contract only makes him undesirable to owners who are concerned with the actual payroll they'll be handing out. The teams with deep pockets only care about the cap sheet value, and that's going to be a perfectly acceptable 8.3M in his third year. I think there probably are a few teams, particularly in small markets, who will be a frightened off (and actually it would be fascinating to know who those teams are if only because it reveals a lot about the financial situations of the teams that don't want him), but it's not going to completely kill his trade value.

  ST

  I agree to some degree that the owners with deep pockets won't be as frightened, but it will still net less in trade. however that only leaves a few teams at the table....ie NY, Brooklyn, LA, Boston and Miami. most of these teams don't have anything we would be interested in that they would also be willing to give up

• Sir Thursday says 4 months ago

  I agree Asik's Contract cuts into his value, which is why he must be moved now. Rahat has already pointed out that any team taking his contract will only get value on that contract if they get 2 years service for 20 mil vs. one year service for 15 mil if we hold on to him until the trade deadline. if we truly intend to reap max value from moving him, we must move while he has the maximum amount of value. for everyday we hold on to him he loses value. I think it's pretty clear when his contract is up with us we have no chance of signing him to another, so we must decide if we want to either trade him now or ride his contract out. I expect the Rockets to take a little time to see both D-12 and Asik play together in these next 3 preseason games........if it looks like it might work they may decide to ride Asik's contract out..........if it doesn't I expect an Asik trade within 2-3 weeks after that. in the next few games we will play some key teams that a D-12-Asik combo would most likely work. we have both Memphis and San Antonio coming up. if we are to see what the future of Asik will be.........watching the next few games will be must see TV

  Asik's contract only makes him undesirable to owners who are concerned with the actual payroll they'll be handing out. The teams with deep pockets only care about the cap sheet value, and that's going to be a perfectly acceptable 8.3M in his third year. I think there probably are a few teams, particularly in small markets, who will be a frightened off (and actually it would be fascinating to know who those teams are if only because it reveals a lot about the financial situations of the teams that don't want him), but it's not going to completely kill his trade value.

  ST

• rockets best fan says 4 months ago

  It's pretty clear they won't get an Aldridge or love out of asik unless they have another blue chip prospect or guaranteed lotto pick Portland or Minnesota wouldn't even want to discuss it. With asik only having 2yrs left and the last year being so high it does cut into his value quite a bit but there are teams that could work. Like Boston depending on where they are at in the standings. If Bynum and varejoe (very likely) both get hurt the cavs are in win now more they'd have interest. The wiz need a big man. Atl could be a an option.

  I agree Asik's Contract cuts into his value, which is why he must be moved now. Rahat has already pointed out that any team taking his contract will only get value on that contract if they get 2 years service for 20 mil vs. one year service for 15 mil if we hold on to him until the trade deadline. if we truly intend to reap max value from moving him, we must move while he has the maximum amount of value. for everyday we hold on to him he loses value. I think it's pretty clear when his contract is up with us we have no chance of signing him to another, so we must decide if we want to either trade him now or ride his contract out. I expect the Rockets to take a little time to see both D-12 and Asik play together in these next 3 preseason games........if it looks like it might work they may decide to ride Asik's contract out..........if it doesn't I expect an Asik trade within 2-3 weeks after that. in the next few games we will play some key teams that a D-12-Asik combo would most likely work. we have both Memphis and San Antonio coming up. if we are to see what the future of Asik will be.........watching the next few games will be must see TV

• Cooper says 4 months ago It's pretty clear they won't get an Aldridge or love out of asik unless they have another blue chip prospect or guaranteed lotto pick Portland or Minnesota wouldn't even want to discuss it. With asik only having 2yrs left and the last year being so high it does cut into his value quite a bit but there are teams that could work. Like Boston depending on where they are at in the standings. If Bynum and varejoe (very likely) both get hurt the cavs are in win now more they'd have interest. The wiz need a big man. Atl could be a an option.
• rockets best fan says 4 months ago

  Clearly you haven't read any recent stuff from Michael Pina or Justin Wehr...

  Jeby you put out quality articles as well......don't sell yourself short

  as for the Asik trade proposals..........Miami isn't going to trade Bosh before giving a three-peat a shot, so that has 0% chance of happening. however even if they were interested I still wouldn't touch it. as for GSW......the chance of 2 contenders within the same conference making a roster altering trade have even less chance of happening than the Miami trade idea. Houston isn't going to help Golden State get better and they aren't going to help us.............I can sit up and throw out crazy trade ideas all day, but one thing you must take into account is the needs and wants of our trade partner. if the trade doesn't work for them as well then it probably won't happen

• Jeby says 4 months ago

  Greatest Red94 read ever.

  Clearly you haven't read any recent stuff from Michael Pina or Justin Wehr...

• gcrussell4 says 4 months ago

  Problem 1 with fake Asik trades - the money rarely adds up. Go to the NBA Trade Machine and you will see that getting Bosh would be a lot more complicated than it sounded on the video. Same for the mess in Golden State (which would only be worth it in a three team deal where Barnes turned into a much more important player from the third team).

  Problem 2 with fake Asik trades - a lot of them just don't make sense. I too would love to get Love, but why would Minnesota want Asik when they just signed his carbon copy to a long term deal? I too would love Aldridge, but why would Portland do a trade that would clearly take them out of playoff contention this year? With all of these fake trades, it is important to put yourself in the shoes of a fan from the other team. If you were in their shoes, would you feel like you won the trade? If the answer is no, than you probably will never see it happen.

  One thing about Morey trades (and further demonstrating his genius) is that when you first see them, most of the time you feel like it wasn't a great deal for the Rockets. I still remember all of the negative reaction when we traded for a "sixth man" in Harden. I agreed with it. The reason that he pulls off these trades is because he is smarter than us. Way, way, way freaking smarter than us. The only Morey trades that I fear are the ones that I look at and think that I agree with, because those usually end up being the bummers (Thomas Robinson, etc.).

• It's Dee Way Ferrell says 4 months ago I so like the Asik/Bogut-Barnes trade, but it'$ inter- conference contenders. Best value trade for Asik may be Jeff Green, possibly include Marshon Brooks & Kelly Olynyk. Reasonably Green ha$ played pf in the Western conference, played with Harden, and ha$ a 3 pt shot. I know good points, right. Main thing it'$ a trade with an eastern conference cellar dweller. Do not add rondo. I repeat do not add Rondo into the mix. If so force a third teams involvement. Do not pick up Rondo.
• bboley24 says 4 months ago
  
  

  Greatest Red94 read ever.

  I agree with every Thorpe had to say. Watching Hakeem; man we have got to sign him for the playoffs.

• RollingWave says 4 months ago
  
  

  I've brought the Bosh proposition up before, but the general point is that contenders rarely trade with each other for obvious reasons.