The Spurs have punched the Grizzlies in the mouth. Tony Parker got whatever he wanted in game one, and what he wanted was easy lay-ups, and an endless army of open three-point shooters. The Spurs, of course, have done this before. Long regarded as one the most strategically prepared teams in the league, Popovich and company exploited some of Memphis’ illusory weaknesses. But the problem for San Antonio is that the Grizzlies, too, have done this before. They lost the first game in both of their last two rounds, and then proved themselves to be excellent at adjusting, and slowly forcing games toward their will. Game one was an aberration—this is going to be a long, great series—and Memphis just better hope it isn’t the difference between going to Miami, and going home.
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5-on-5, the Pacers can give the Heat a real run for their money. 5-on-5, I’d give the Heat a slight edge, in a seven-game series victory. But this game is 12-on-12, and when we considerIndiana’s anemic, turnover-and-foul-prone bench production, it seems the Heat have enough extra manpower to keep Indy comfortably distant from victory. David West and Roy Hibbert, like all quality bigs, will challenge Miami where they’re most challenged, making Chris Bosh make an even greater case for himself, and forcing Miami to use everything they have (plenty of Birdman, and maybe even Joel Anthony if there’s foul trouble). But fortunately for the Heat, they’ve got way more than enough; depth will be the difference in this series, just as it was in the tighter games against Chicago, and any victory by Indiana will, itself, be a feat worth hanging their hats on.
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The Knicks have some things to think about. An odd collection of moving parts, their 2012-2013 outfit combined several generations of ballers for a campaign that filled out its team identity around Carmelo Anthony, and on the fly. Their best hope at going beyond round two, and eyeing a championship, remains an emulation of the 2010-2011 Dallas Mavericks. The Knicks only real off-season options are in tweaking their role-player assemblage, and hoping that Melo, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton become modest enough (taking a cue from Amar’e Stoudemire, maybe) to let a gestalt, highly-identified crew form around one exceptional scorer, and perform consistently enough to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies—which, in the case of Miami, they’ll have to pray for, like the rest of the league. If you’re aNew Yorkfan who believes your team is cursed, I’d say that your not about to believe otherwise.
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The Warriors’ future is an interesting one. David Lee’s injury, the most surprising silver-lining of the post-season, showed that—despite leading his conference in double-doubles—building any offense around him is a mistake, so long as they’ve got this array of shooters. If Golden State takes full advantage of its situation (Lee’s market value is relatively unknown in a world where Torontod ecides to cap out for Rudy Gay), they’ll deal Lee and acquire some defensive help in exchange. And since the real crux in the loss to San Antonio was Steph Curry re-injuring his ankle (which took more away from the offense and team mentality than can be reasonably summarized) this squad’s ceiling is still of unknown heights. (Although, of course, Curry’s perpetually tenuous ankle, itself, may be the definition of their potential, like Derrick Rose’s knee now will be for the Bulls). Further playoff runs for GSW mean a symposium on just how far perimeter shooting can take a team.
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The Bulls and Thunder have health to look forward to. As Kevin Durant recently said, no season is a lost one; any experience and wisdom garnered by OKC and Chicago in their most recent playoff runs counts toward the dream-runs of the next few years: if their bodies allow it, these are two teams potentially fated to meet in the NBA finals. Here’s to hoping that either can prove how important warm, playable bodies have been to the Heat’s dominance; to hoping that either can show us we’re not mired in the nightmare of a championship monopoly.
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