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@  Losthief : (02 October 2015 - 02:24 AM) tks jg
@  thejohnnygold : (29 September 2015 - 05:16 AM) FYI, it was media day today. Interviews are up at NBA.com
@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK
@  rockets best... : (14 September 2015 - 02:29 AM) I agree totally. I got to watch his Rocket days and the man was a hell of a player. BIG MO R.I.P.
@  Mario Peña : (13 September 2015 - 05:24 PM) Sad to see Moses pass. I don't remember watching him as a Rocket but I do remember his Philly and Hawks teams. He was the perfect man to mentor Dream. It's a very sad day for his family and friends and there are many.
@  majik19 : (12 September 2015 - 09:01 PM) i just saw a post wishing Yao Ming a happy 35th birthday... am I the only one whose mind is blown that he's only 35?
@  cointurtlemoose : (08 September 2015 - 01:17 AM) aaaah, thanks jorge
@  jorgeaam : (08 September 2015 - 12:21 AM) Love it how Hinkie and Morey always target the same players, but hoping he isn't another Covington
@  thejohnnygold : (08 September 2015 - 12:03 AM) Christian Wood has signed with Philly
@  jorgeaam : (07 September 2015 - 10:32 PM) If I'm not wrong, he hasn't been waived yet, they have until october 4th to do that
@  cointurtlemoose : (07 September 2015 - 05:39 PM) Anyone else surprised that Kostas hasn't gotten picked up by anyone yet? I wanna see that guy play somewhere
@  redfaithful : (05 September 2015 - 10:48 PM) Llull line from today loss to Serbia: 30MIN 1-10PG, 0-5 3PG, 4-4FT 6AST, 1TO, 4REB, +/- -11
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:27 AM) this dude's gun fired and all he got a misdemeanor at bush lol: http://abc13.com/new...ush-iah/815795/
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:26 AM) theres more articles all over, but the jist is houston (and texas) doesn't really arrest for it, they just recommend you leave it in your car when they catch it. So seems dwight got lucky he was in texas and not cali or the NE.
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:22 AM) honestly we should just be glad they caught it...
@  Losthief : (03 September 2015 - 02:21 AM) response: http://nymag.com/dai...n_airplane.html

jz13

Member Since 23 Jun 2014
Offline Last Active Aug 11 2015 05:36 PM
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#47440 For the last time, a midrange game is not important

Posted by jz13 on 18 March 2015 - 05:58 PM

Really interesting read, and I agree with most of it.  But I also think you are falling into a very common analytics trap.  You assume you are asking the right question.  The question you're asking, as i understand it, is what is the more efficient SHOT out of contested and uncontested threes and midrange?  The answer to that is clearly pretty much any type of 3.  But there is a more important question.  What distribution of shots provides the most efficient OFFENSE or overall scoring?  The distinction between the best shot and the best offense is critically important.

 

ESPN (I believe it was ESPN, but i can't for the life of me find the article) did an analysis on whether there was a point in which limiting your offense to 3's, paint, and FT actually made the overall offense less efficient.  What they found is after a certain point, there appeared to be a negative correlation to avoiding the dreaded long two at all costs.  Or put another way, the Warriors and Mavs had the most efficient offenses by far, but took a significantly higher percentage of long 2's than the Rockets.  The Rockets are merely in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive efficiency despite their strict adherence to their paint, 3's and FT philosophy.  

 

Two observations about this:

 

1) The person taking the shots matters more than anything.  Steph Curry taking a contested long two is probably more efficient than Beverly taking a wide open 3.  So you may argue, if Curry just eliminated all those long two's he'd be even more efficient.  Perhaps, but we don't have numbers to back that up, and the fact that he's possibly the most efficient volume offensive player in history suggests he might have the balance just right.  His long 2's also open up the offense for his teammates.

 

2) ESPN's analysis passes the gut test.  If a good defensive team knows it only ever has to guard the paint and 3 point line, spacing will become a nightmare over the course of a game.  However, if a team can hit enough midrange two's, it forces the defense to guard a lot more space which will inevitably lead to a higher paint and 3 point efficiency.

 

The bottom line is that focusing too much on individual statistics can often lead to missing the bigger picture.  That doesn't mean analytics isn't really really important - it is - but we should aware of it's limitations.


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