jz13

One thing I would add to this is the importance of Lawson's 3pt % creeping up.  It should.  He was a very effective spot up 3pt shooter (not so much off the dribble).  It's important he's at 38% or higher when playing with Harden.  

 

The offensive possibilities are scary with a Harden, Lawson, Dmo, Ariza, Howard lineup.  2 guys that can initiate the 1st AND secondary pick and roll, the best roll guy in the league, surrounded by 4 guys who can shoot the 3 at 37% or better.  How do you guard that?  Add to this 2 guys who can break down the defense one on one and a very capable post player.  Last year the best teams loaded up on Harden and the ball stopped after the first pass...shouldn't be a problem next year.

 

On defense we need Ariza to be Ariza and guard the best 1-3 guy.  Howard just needs to do what he does and stay out of foul trouble.  They really should consider making him the primary defender on elite 4 guys like Griffin and Aldridge...why not, his most important asset to this team is defense.  Dmo needs to continue to be in the right place at the right time and use his length...he's a very capable defender (needs to improve his rebounding though).   The hope for Harden/Lawson is that reduced offensive burden and minutes will lead to increased energy available for defense.  Harden's proven to be capable when he's focused and not gassed.  

 

I see a top 3 offensive team and a top 5 defensive team.

That's not really the dreamshake.  The dreamshake would have included a fake back to his right before spinning for the fade away.  But beautiful to watch nonetheless.  He was fare and away my favorite athlete as a kid...I still have my 1994 Olajuwon jersey.

A Tim Duncan like plan is what Howard needs:

 

1) Limit his typical rotation minutes.  Something like 6-6-6-8 would be ideal.  This will allow him to play the most important minutes of any basketball game - the start and finish of each half.  It's also plenty of minutes to build chemistry with the new Harden/Lawson driven offense.

2) Flex his minutes up and down.  When we play the real contenders (Warriors, Spurs, Clips, Thunder, Memphis, Cavs, Atlanta?, Bulls?), flex up.  It's psychologically important for the post season to beat these teams during the regular season.  When we play the bottom tier, flex down. 

3) Take spot games off, especially some back to backs.

4)  Be prepared to throw in the (Howard) towel early.  When there's a 20 point deficit in the second half, sit him.  Pop does this with his aging stars all the time.  The improved odds of the comeback with Howard on the floor aren't worth the grind.  

 

McHale's a real competitor - it's not in his nature to do this.  It's going to take a convincing Morey spreadsheet to show him the likely statistical outcome for both the regular season and playoffs.

Pretty sure it was McGrady's glass knees that altered his career, not back issues.

His knees finished him off, but he was constantly struggling with nagging back pain that impacted his ability to get to the rim.  Obviously I hope the best for Dmo, but I'm just trying to be a little realistic that sometimes backs can be nagging injuries that never fully heal.

Rahat this is the one area where we have a fork in the road. while I agree D-Mo made strides last year I don't think he made them on the level you're speaking of. this is what I saw. I saw a player who still gets bullied on the rebound. he has some very nice post moves. he improved defensively, but is still slow footed. the three pt shot from the corner is coming around nicely. I am a little more concerned about the back issue than you but if healthy I expect him to take another step this year. I agree he is going to cost next year. considering the way players were paid this year and considering that bigs are usually paid more I would say he will get above 14 mil per easily. while overall I was impressed by him, I'm not ready to pencil him in as starter. fact is he has never played starter while T-Jones is healthy. speaking of T-Jones.........I am sick and tired of fans casting him off like chop liver. before this kid got hurt last year he had taken a step too. while I don't believe he ever really got back to that point last year. I think now that the injury seems truly behind him he will resume his development as well. for those of you who seem to think D-Mo is a shoe in for starter you may find that the Rockets have a different opinion. PF is up for grabs and I believe by the start of the season you will find T-Jones there. while D-Mo comes in with the second unit.  with Lawson here T-Jones abilities will explode. his ability to cut to the basket will be exploited by Lawson. they may not get to the level Lawson and Faried were on in the first year but it will be close. all of our bigs will be helped by the presence of Lawson, but T-Jones and D-12 will benefit the most. Lawson is capable of making some of the passes to slashing bigs that no other players on our team were able to make including Harden. we should see a rise in assist to our bigs for easy baskets in the half court and a reduction in turnovers. a rise in fast break points and especially with our bigs included.  I am of the opinion that while PF is our weakest position, we really aren't all that weak. both D-Mo and T-Jones bring enough good things to the table that used properly we are able to get what we need without any upgrade. IMO we are a championship caliber team as we stand.

 

There's one big reason I think you're wrong - the 3pt shot.  Dmo can shoot it and T-Jones can't (yet).  With Harden, Lawson and Howard playing, you HAVE to have a 4 who can knock down the open 3.  Harden/Lawson driving, Howard rolling and 3 shooters...deadly.  Also, it's hard to say T-Jones showed much improvement last year when he got injured in the first week or 2 of the season.  When he came back, he never recovered his form.  He was useless in the playoffs (again).  Maybe he'll improve, but we don't know that yet.  It wouldn't shock me if T-Jones starts since we need Dmo playing with the second unit, but Dmo will play more minutes and finish more games.