YaoMan

I agree with JG and Slick shoes and JG has pretty much articulated most of what I would say comparing TJ and D-Mo. 

My addition to the thread that I don't think has been mentioned much (or at all) is that D-Mo's skill set will last longer when age catches up and athleticism starts to wane. D-Mo is effective below the rim and his improved shooting has shown he's working on a longer, defining career.  Something that is still an asset when age starts becoming a factor. He will not need athleticism to create his own shots from the post, to make those nifty passes, to handle the ball for a big guy and craftiness around the rim.  These are skills that can still cause damage no matter how much your athletic abilities wane.

TJ on the other hand; his abilities and skills mostly all stem from the athlete in him: Jumping ability, blocking shots from the weak side, running and gunning on the break and rolling with vertical authority. I still see glimpses of a solid player who can contribute effectively and be a part of a winning team. Make no mistake, I like TJ a lot and still think he has potential.

But based on the progress I have seen from both (D-Mo more), if I had to choose one for the long term right now, I'd have to pick D-Mo.

So, RAPM is back, huh? 

 

I realize this is ESPN's own fancy version of it, but in the fine print at the bottom of the page, they credit the RAPM guy for the vast majority of it.

 

Here is a must read from Hickory High if people are going to make any assertions using this statistic.  LINK

 

It simply cannot be used in the same way as a basic stat like "points" or "rebounds".

 

I mean, pardon me for pointing out that Larry Sanders is #2 in DRPM (because it is way over-inflated from the previous season's stats)

 

Or that only one player in the top 40 for DRPM is a guard (the coveted Eric Bledsoe).  Draymond Green plays PF (despite his SF listing).  Allen and Green both play SF when they are on the court.  That's still a total of 5 players in the top 40 (Paul freakin' Pierce made the top 40!!!) who aren't PF's or Centers.  I'm pretty sure that's not how it works in real life.

 

Hey, if you want me to believe that Kosta Koufos is a better defender than Paul George go right ahead and try...according to DRPM he is.  He is also better than Kawhi Leonard, Al-Farouq Aminu (who only brings defense to the table), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (the same), Chris Paul, Thabo Sefolosha, Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler, Avery Bradley, Trevor Ariza, and Zach Randolph--and that's just some of the top 120.

 

This is still a team statistic--they have tried to isolate it down to one player but that is impossible and misleading when they claim to have done it.  The numbers are jiggered and figured until they fit a pre-conceived ideal.  In case anyone forgot--I have no love for this metric. 

 

I find a simple "on-off" stat to be much more telling. than these contrived "figures" that somehow purport to rank players all willy-nilly.  The longer one looks at that list the less sense it will make.  For every player that fits in with the "eye test" another one pops up where the eye test makes you think an orangutan is crunching the numbers.

 

Check out Harden's on-off from basketball reference: LINK  Notice that Harden being on the court is a plus defensively except for Ortg which barely moves from 106.2 to 106.0.

 

Keep in mind that I am not saying Harden was a great defender last season, but let's be realistic.  I'd like to point out that our own D-Mo scored a positive DRPM of .53 putting him 5 spots ahead of Francisco Garcia.  Hmmm, what else is there to see?  Nic Batum is ranked #283 on defense....a little suspect.  Wes Matthews is #296...also suspect.  Terrence Jones rolls in at #360.  Rajon Rondo is next at #361    There's Damian Lillard at #368....Jimmer Fredette is dead last 

 

I'm not trying to stifle anyone--just want people to be educated on this stat and to use caution when wielding it.  To me, the RPM stats have more negatives than positives and, ultimately, are poor indicators of relative performance.

 

This is a team game and it may be fun to evaluate individual performance, but I will always prefer team dynamics.  One last note--Harden needs to improve his defense--team defense!.  

I never said that the DRPM (or RPM) is a end all, be all statistic. I'm not an advanced statistician but if you have the sufficient data to completely debunk ESPN's formula, I say put that together and get paid!

I don't think the metric tells you which player is better than another like saying Koufas is better than George is defensively. I think it measures the point differential impact for player's on court time filtering many statistics within it and the defensive scoring ratio based on a number of factors in their metrics.  Perhaps, Koufas presence in a game reduces the percentage and number of close shots at the rim that are measurable and quantifiable.  What is not measurable is the hounding presence that George can present on an offensive player which makes that player pass to another option or run another offensive set.  How do you measure that? By watching the game, of course! But everyone absolutely wanted to behead Rahat for using his judgment when watching the games. There are intangibles that do account for a lot of things that cannot be measured or quantified as we all know.

So given that I am using a measurable stat (fallible, it may be) to state that Harden just needs to give effort on his D. I've watched him D up players in OKC and believe he is better than average when he tries. It's what Rahat was seeing in the "eye test" like when he cheats to the middle of the lane, and loses his man completely for a lay up or open jumper that's egregious.

Whether ESPN's metric is completely off or not, I think the point was about the "eye" test because I'm pretty sure that everyone was saying that the eye test (body language) says absolutely nothing and is not a stat or anything tangible that can be proven or disproven. And even that matters very little to me - what I'm saying is that for all the knocks Harden has, which every star in this league has, his greatness is there. My point is if his defensive effort is there (and I know he can D-up), no metric or stat would matter as the wins would take care of themselves and this team will be better. That's when I think he will ascend to super stardom.

I will say this when reading the thread, a lot of talk saying that using no stats or proof to back something up and basing an opinion from just watching someone made people upset. Yet when I bring up a stat that I'm sure a group of statisticians came up with that is being used by the single largest sports media in the world, I kind of got slammed for bringing it up. And no where in my post did I say I adamantly believed its rating. I just said Beverly, Asik (when he was on the court) and Howard all showed up high and we can see how their defensive presence makes a difference when watching the game and some of that is quantifiable (and some are not). All this suggests (see how I said suggests ) is that when watching the game and using any form of quantifiable statistics, Harden's D is less than desirable. There's no doubt in my mind if Harden takes just a bit off his offense and puts in 50% more defensive effort (team defense would be great!), they will surprise many of the naysayers wrong. If he is the leader (you know because he's the cornerstone ), he must then lead by example.

@Yaoman/JG

watching you guys slug it out is to much reading  can I just order the short version

Basically I was down on the signings and wanted 1st round pick bench players and JG said they're not easy to get so zip it and I said whoa why are you "in my face" and he said well you're pissing and moaning and I said I'll try not to piss out of turn but I don't think I pissed on anyone! Something to that effect....

Are we just biased for our players and think they should have gotten farther that we're placing the blame unfairly on mchale? Maybe we just weren't good enough to beat the blazers.

You present a great question. But I do believe many thought that the Rockets would take Blazers in 5 and take Spurs to 7. Here's another interesting fact against the Blazers: The Rockets where up in the 4th quarter with 6 minutes to go in every game of the series but failed to close. That would leave me to believe that it's not the talent.  There are other things I have noticed too: offensive sets , in game adjustments and game to game management which would leave me to believe there might be some coaching issues.

Again, I am not blaming this entirely on McHale. But Rahat or Forest pointed out the game where Parsons was on fire against Memphis and being down at the end of the game, he placed CP on the top of the key for an iso, which clearly isn't Parsons strength. The thought was maybe you run CP off of a curl and have Harden drive and kick for a more open look. Or a dribble hand off from Harden to Parsons. I agree with the observation but that could be just me giving credence to Rahat/Forest...

I do, however, believe with all my heart that the Rockets team last year was better than the Blazers team.

I'd love to snag Bledsoe. Young guy with a motor and would fit well in our system.

He might be too expensive but I do like his game a lot.

Since Morey is bringing back ex-Rockets, Hakeem might be able to give 10 minutes off the bench everynight. I'm sure Bullard can still shot, Scotty Brooks has to be a better backup PG presently then he is a head coach. Zan Tabek or Pete Chilcutt might be able good 15th men, just to have some fun when announcing the names of the players. Or maybe Robert Horry, he can teach the players what it takes to get rings.

And have Big shot Bob teach them how to have ice in their veins to make a cold blooded 3.  Maybe OT (Thorpe) can play 15 min too!

I agree, Lin will take 100% of his shots from the court.....but he's only gonna make 40% of them. 

I actually think he will shoot about the same percentage - he's second behind only Lebron in shooting percentage on drives and that's where he's most dangerous.  However, because of what you alluded to earlier about his usage rate going up, he will have a lot more turnovers. I wish Lin luck in LA but he and Asik were the beginning of the reconstruct. Harden and Howard represents the upgraded version of both of them so it makes sense to dump both of them before their balloon payment year. In the end, it's just a business and Lin has no reason to be dissatisfied - he got paid 25mil. I'd say that is a sign of respect from Morey and the FO.