61 replies to this topic

[majik19]

Here's a good bit of news. From ESPN's Kevin Pelton, the best rookie in the Vegas summer league was...

 

Best rookies

1. Alan Williams | Houston RocketsBelieve it or not, the best rookie in Vegas has been one who didn't have his name called on draft night last month. Williams, an incredibly productive scorer and rebounder at UC Santa Barbara, has carried that over to summer play. He leads all rookies with 20.0 points per game, using his hook shot to score over bigger defenders in the post. Williams has also pulled down 8.7 rebounds per game and flashed impressive court vision against double-teams, handing out 2.7 assists.

[thejohnnygold]

I'm not sad to see Smith go, but I do think we were better with him and that he brought more to the table than he took off of it.  His negatives are exaggerated while his positives diminished.  It doesn't matter--he's the Clip's problem now.  I'm excited to see Smith/Griffin pair up when they go small.  I think it will be solid on both ends of the floor.

 

I think there may be some over reactions occurring regarding our place in the Western Conference elite.  Free agency has not been a "failure".  First, we are bringing back nearly the same roster as last season except we have added Thornton (plus Dekker and Harrell).  We will experience internal improvement plus we still have the ability to make a trade to upgrade PG if we want.  I think people are sleeping on D-Mo.  He will be a force this season.  McHale fully trusts him now and I expect to see his usage rate climb.

 

I'm also not sold about how much better other WC teams are heading into next season.

 

The Spurs sacrificed depth to get Aldridge.  I know it sounds crazy, but they are going to miss Baynes quite a bit.  Bellinelli, Joseph, and Splitter as well.  David West doesn't move the needle for me.  I don't know...for some reason San Antonio doesn't scare me in a 7 game series.

 

The Clippers?  OK, so they are going to trot out Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Glen Davis and Paul Pierce?  They still have Jordan's free throw shooting to contend with.  They replaced reliable Matt Barnes with Wesley Johnson and Jordan Hamilton (two promising wings who have never been able to find a consistent level of play).  Chris Paul is going to have no less than 3 public freak outs next season playing with that group of yahoos.  That's too many free lancers on one team and Doc Rivers is going to have a heck of a time balancing his line ups.

 

Memphis?  Meh, we'll see.  I think they can be beat in the playoffs.  It will be a grind, but I truly think we win a series with them more often than not.

 

What about OKC?  I don't know.  They still have 2 of the top 10 players in the league.  They don't have a whole lot going for them after the starting 5.  I think they suffer a bit because I'm not convinced Durant/Westbrook compliment one another as well as an inside out combo would.  Would trading Durant+Ibaka to Sacramento for Cousins+Gay be a win-win for each team?  I think it would be....the point is they are beatable in a playoff series.  (Plus, trading Durant would be wise given the way free agents are holding teams hostage.  If I were Presti I would make it known across the league that Durant is available.)

 

Golden State?  They had a heck of a season last year and look like a lock to be good for the next decade....just like the Bulls did...and the Pacers....and the Thunder....watch what happens over the next few years when the quality of NBA bigs finally gets back to where it used to be.

 

Don't forget, until Tony Allen went down in the MEM-GSW series they were not doing well.  They were knocked out by the Clips (and their big frontcourt) the year before.  If we had D-Mo I think that series would have been very different.  They aren't unbeatable.

 

Let's get McDaniels signed and see how the Western Conference likes dealing with the league's #1 SG, the league's #1 post player, strong defenders at PG, SF, and C and a solid bench full of long, athletic guys like Brewer, Jones, Capela, Thornton, and McDaniels.  Get this...Dwight Howard is now a "role player" for the Houston Rockets.  It's true.  That doesn't diminish his awesomeness--it's just a fact.

[Jatman20]

I'd take those stats with a grain of salt... I mean we played the Mavs, Clippers, and Warriors, arguably the three of the fastest paced teams in the playoffs. I'm sure that had something to do with our supposed offensive spike. Though I do agree that we left a lot of points on the board with missed free throws.

Yes the stats can be taken with a grain of salt. You can throw in some overtime games in that small sample size as well. Keep in mind in the playoffs teams normally force a half court game and take away fast break points. Teams normally score fewer points in the playoffs. Vs the Mavs we put JSmoove at the FT line, while they doubled Harden to force the ball out of his hands, where he created lobs or 3 point opportunities for others. It worked some in the early games vs the Clips as well. But then teams adapted by quickly fouling him or wrapping him up......to put him on the FT line. We adjusted by putting the Jet in that same position. You can't win a championship with two piss poor FT shooters that are main guys of your rotation.just my opinion.....you are entitled to yours.

I would have to go team by team to see which teams scored more in the playoffs vs regular season.....out of curiosity.

Edited by Jatman20, 18 July 2015 - 12:35 AM.

[Jatman20]

...Points/Game.......................Reg.................Season...................PO..................................................................................
Dallas.......................................105.2...........................110.........+4.8...................................................................................
**Houston.................................103.8..........................108.2.......+4.4....................................................................................
Pels...........................................99.4............................100.8......+1.4..................................................................................
**Clips......................................106.7...........................107.8.......+1.1...................................................................................
Spurs.......................................103.2............................103.4.......+0.2....................................................................................
Warriors...................................110...............................103.3.......-6.7.....................................................................................

Wiz are only Eastern team in PO's to have over 100/PO game. From 98.5 in reg season to 101.2 in the PO's.

Stats don't mean much, but interesting to see the two teams most "Hack-A-Player(s)" had increases in points. **Houston and Clips. I'm of the train of thought that if the player makes 50% of their FT's during the game.....the Hack-a-Player tactic backfires. Jordan shot 40% FT (reg) and 43% FT (PO). Josh shot 52% FT with the Rockets (reg) and 43% FT (PO). Josh shot near 70% FT line in his early seasons of his career. If he shot that....it's a no-brainier to retain him. Unfortunately things are not always so easy. Stats per BasketballReference.com

Edited by Jatman20, 18 July 2015 - 01:32 AM.

[isaacjunk]

The Spurs sacrificed depth to get Aldridge.  I know it sounds crazy, but they are going to miss Baynes quite a bit.  Bellinelli, Joseph, and Splitter as well.  David West doesn't move the needle for me.  I don't know...for some reason San Antonio doesn't scare me in a 7 game series.

 

The Clippers?  OK, so they are going to trot out Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Glen Davis and Paul Pierce?  They still have Jordan's free throw shooting to contend with.  They replaced reliable Matt Barnes with Wesley Johnson and Jordan Hamilton (two promising wings who have never been able to find a consistent level of play).  Chris Paul is going to have no less than 3 public freak outs next season playing with that group of yahoos.  That's too many free lancers on one team and Doc Rivers is going to have a heck of a time balancing his line ups.

 

Golden State?  They had a heck of a season last year and look like a lock to be good for the next decade....just like the Bulls did...and the Pacers....and the Thunder....watch what happens over the next few years when the quality of NBA bigs finally gets back to where it used to be.

 

 

Agreed that outside of the Clippers, Spurs, and GS, no team is appreciably better on paper than Houston.  However, that is 3 really good teams that are appreciably better on paper than Houston.   So, our chemistry improves after a year together?  Same with GS and to some extent Clips and Spurs ( although working in LMA may take some tinkering with the offense ).  To equate an improved D-Mo with the addition of LMA / loss of bench depth on the Spurs just doesn't ring true to me.   Of course in a 7-game series anything can happen, but odds-wise you'd have to put those 3 ahead of Houston, and by a noticeable margin.  Incidentally this is reflected in Bovada's odds, which actually have OKC ahead of Houston as well putting us 5th in the conference.  Similar if you go with nate silver's RPM-based calculations.

Edited by isaacjunk, 18 July 2015 - 08:47 AM.

[redfaithful]

Agreed that outside of the Clippers, Spurs, and GS, no team is appreciably better on paper than Houston.  However, that is 3 really good teams that are appreciably better on paper than Houston.   So, our chemistry improves after a year together?  Same with GS and to some extent Clips and Spurs ( although working in LMA may take some tinkering with the offense ).  To equate an improved D-Mo with the addition of LMA / loss of bench depth on the Spurs just doesn't ring true to me.   Of course in a 7-game series anything can happen, but odds-wise you'd have to put those 3 ahead of Houston, and by a noticeable margin.  Incidentally this is reflected in Bovada's odds, which actually have OKC ahead of Houston as well putting us 5th in the conference.  Similar if you go with nate silver's RPM-based calculations.

 

Where were the Rockets positioned in these predictions last year? Western Conference Finals?

[Willk]

I'm not sad to see Smith go, but I do think we were better with him and that he brought more to the table than he took off of it. His negatives are exaggerated while his positives diminished. It doesn't matter--he's the Clip's problem now. I'm excited to see Smith/Griffin pair up when they go small. I think it will be solid on both ends of the floor.

I think there may be some over reactions occurring regarding our place in the Western Conference elite. Free agency has not been a "failure". First, we are bringing back nearly the same roster as last season except we have added Thornton (plus Dekker and Harrell). We will experience internal improvement plus we still have the ability to make a trade to upgrade PG if we want. I think people are sleeping on D-Mo. He will be a force this season. McHale fully trusts him now and I expect to see his usage rate climb.

I'm also not sold about how much better other WC teams are heading into next season.

The Spurs sacrificed depth to get Aldridge. I know it sounds crazy, but they are going to miss Baynes quite a bit. Bellinelli, Joseph, and Splitter as well. David West doesn't move the needle for me. I don't know...for some reason San Antonio doesn't scare me in a 7 game series.

The Clippers? OK, so they are going to trot out Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Glen Davis and Paul Pierce? They still have Jordan's free throw shooting to contend with. They replaced reliable Matt Barnes with Wesley Johnson and Jordan Hamilton (two promising wings who have never been able to find a consistent level of play). Chris Paul is going to have no less than 3 public freak outs next season playing with that group of yahoos. That's too many free lancers on one team and Doc Rivers is going to have a heck of a time balancing his line ups.

Memphis? Meh, we'll see. I think they can be beat in the playoffs. It will be a grind, but I truly think we win a series with them more often than not.

What about OKC? I don't know. They still have 2 of the top 10 players in the league. They don't have a whole lot going for them after the starting 5. I think they suffer a bit because I'm not convinced Durant/Westbrook compliment one another as well as an inside out combo would. Would trading Durant+Ibaka to Sacramento for Cousins+Gay be a win-win for each team? I think it would be....the point is they are beatable in a playoff series. (Plus, trading Durant would be wise given the way free agents are holding teams hostage. If I were Presti I would make it known across the league that Durant is available.)

Golden State? They had a heck of a season last year and look like a lock to be good for the next decade....just like the Bulls did...and the Pacers....and the Thunder....watch what happens over the next few years when the quality of NBA bigs finally gets back to where it used to be.

Don't forget, until Tony Allen went down in the MEM-GSW series they were not doing well. They were knocked out by the Clips (and their big frontcourt) the year before. If we had D-Mo I think that series would have been very different. They aren't unbeatable.

Let's get McDaniels signed and see how the Western Conference likes dealing with the league's #1 SG, the league's #1 post player, strong defenders at PG, SF, and C and a solid bench full of long, athletic guys like Brewer, Jones, Capela, Thornton, and McDaniels. Get this...Dwight Howard is now a "role player" for the Houston Rockets. It's true. That doesn't diminish his awesomeness--it's just a fact.

I hope that D-Mo comes back as a beast next year, but he is coming off of back surgery. There as to be concern about that. How long did it take Dwight to get back to normal after back surgery?
Dwight missed half the season. Tjones missed more than half of the season. Like I said, the Rockets are 1 injury in the front court from having Joey Dorsey playing important minutes.
Morley had one job this summer and that was to add a 2nd playmaker. Not only did he not do this, he also lost the 2nd best playmaker (josh smith).
Beverley has missed a lot of games the past two years. What happens if he misses games again? Are we ok with Pablo playing 30+ minutes a game?
Talent wise GSW, SAS, LAC, OKC & possibly Mem are better.
I do agree that continuity will help, but it seems like Morey constructed this roster based largely on believing in health which I do not you can ever count on.

[thenit]

...Points/Game.......................Reg.................Season...................PO..................................................................................
Dallas.......................................105.2...........................110.........+4.8...................................................................................
**Houston.................................103.8..........................108.2.......+4.4....................................................................................
Pels...........................................99.4............................100.8......+1.4..................................................................................
**Clips......................................106.7...........................107.8.......+1.1...................................................................................
Spurs.......................................103.2............................103.4.......+0.2....................................................................................
Warriors...................................110...............................103.3.......-6.7.....................................................................................

Wiz are only Eastern team in PO's to have over 100/PO game. From 98.5 in reg season to 101.2 in the PO's.

Stats don't mean much, but interesting to see the two teams most "Hack-A-Player(s)" had increases in points. **Houston and Clips. I'm of the train of thought that if the player makes 50% of their FT's during the game.....the Hack-a-Player tactic backfires. Jordan shot 40% FT (reg) and 43% FT (PO). Josh shot 52% FT with the Rockets (reg) and 43% FT (PO). Josh shot near 70% FT line in his early seasons of his career. If he shot that....it's a no-brainier to retain him. Unfortunately things are not always so easy. Stats per BasketballReference.com

 

Simple logic is that when they hack someone, it extends the game and both team overall get a lot more total possessions. You should look into points per 100 possessions than rather points per game. Its not that hard to figure out why it went up.

[txtdo1411]

I hope that D-Mo comes back as a beast next year, but he is coming off of back surgery. There as to be concern about that. How long did it take Dwight to get back to normal after back surgery?
Dwight missed half the season. Tjones missed more than half of the season. Like I said, the Rockets are 1 injury in the front court from having Joey Dorsey playing important minutes.
Morley had one job this summer and that was to add a 2nd playmaker. Not only did he not do this, he also lost the 2nd best playmaker (josh smith).
Beverley has missed a lot of games the past two years. What happens if he misses games again? Are we ok with Pablo playing 30+ minutes a game?
Talent wise GSW, SAS, LAC, OKC & possibly Mem are better.
I do agree that continuity will help, but it seems like Morey constructed this roster based largely on believing in health which I do not you can ever count on.

 

It would be awesome to have a great 5th/6th big, but it just isn't that feasible. Injuries are a part of the game, and most of the time, the team that wins it all in the end has good health. It requires some luck to win a championship, and health is a big part of it. Look at GSW last year, and pretty much every champion previous. If you have a key player go down, you probably aren't winning a championship. It sucks, but it is the reality. You can't build a roster that is going to account for key injuries. In fact, I think we probably did about as good as you can last season. It would have been nice to have Smith back, but it's done and over now, so there is no point in harping on it. He took less money to go there, because they needed a back-up big way more than we do. He will get more minutes there, and have a more defined role, because they need him more than we do.

 

I would say pretty much every team is 1 front-court injury away from being in trouble. Hell look at the Spurs! What happens if Aldridge or Duncan get hurt? David West is no longer an efficient starter in this league, and they don't have a true 5 on their roster.They have less front-court depth than we do. What happens to the Clips if Jordan goes down? They start Smith or Griffin at the 5? Glen Davis? They would get destroyed on the boards. Every team is susceptible to injuries decimating their depth. 

[rockets best fan]

on the Josh Smith issue...............one reason I felt McHale out coached Doc Rivers in last years playoffs is in game six when they had the big lead and Smith and Brewer bought us back Doc allowed them to play instead of fouling Smith. Smith's free throw shooting would have kept us from winning that game if Doc had used the tactic, but he didn't and the rest is history. I'm not worried about facing Smith in the playoffs because it's too easy to use his free throw shooting to take him off the floor. now we have a choice we can foul Smith or Jordan. while Josh had both good games and bad games you never knew which you would get on any given night. we had a good run last year and Smith helped us, but we have good young bigs who we must continue to develop and Smith would be in the way of that purpose. I'm confident with T-Jones, D-Mo, Capela and D-12 as our front court. we are set there. all we need is a PG who can exploit their talents. IMO we have not seen our front court potential because we haven't been able to use them properly because we don't have a PG who can capitalize on their abilities. if we are able to land a REAL PG you may be surprised at the talent we are already have. some will say Harden is our defacto PG...........I say bulls_it. while harden does create shots he doesn't have great floor vision and can't make all the passes necessary to capitalize on our front court players. our only concern should be finding us a real PG

[majik19]

We almost need to restart this thread.

 

Assuming Lawson gets his act together, this team is deep and talented...

 

PG: Lawson, Beverly

SG: Harden, McDaniels

SF: Ariza, Brewer, Dekker

PF: Motiejunas, Jones, Harrell

C: Howard, Capela

 

That's a legitimate 10 man rotation. 

[Mario Peña]

I'm all for that sir, start a new thread however you like.

[redfaithful]

We almost need to restart this thread.

 

Assuming Lawson gets his act together, this team is deep and talented...

 

PG: Lawson, Beverly

SG: Harden, McDaniels

SF: Ariza, Brewer, Dekker

PF: Motiejunas, Jones, Harrell

C: Howard, Capela

 

That's a legitimate 10 man rotation. 

 

There's also Thornton, who can slide in when Harden takes a night off. Hopefully it will happen more this year.

[thejohnnygold]

I wanted to take a moment to remind everyone how amazingly athletic we are.  Outside of PG, we now have long, rangy, uber-athletic players at every position.

 

Imagine rolling out Ty Lawson, KJ McDaniels, Corey Brewer, Montrezl Harrell (Or T.Jones for that matter), and Clint Capela.

 

That is so much speed and length.  There is a lack of efficiency on the shooting, but I think we can make it up with offensive rebounding and creating turnovers on the other end.

 

For those who may have forgotten, KJ McDaniels is the epitome of Moreyball--rim, threes, and free throws.

 

 

I'm so excited about next season and I truly think all this talk about how we are the 4th/5th best team in the WC is nonsense.

 

 

There is only one roster in the WC that is on par with ours and it is the Warriors.  No other team is primed to be as good now and, ideally, for the next 4-6 years.

 

I truly don't see OKC surviving free agency.  San Antonio will have to deal with Father Time sooner than later.  Aldridge and Leonard will keep them competitive, but not the way they were.  The Clippers...I don't know.  I'm not buying their stock.

 

The Pelicans are one or two free agency periods from flying to the top of the WC.  Guys are going to want to play with Anthony Davis and New Orleans is a good place to be if you are young and wealthy.

 

The point is, we are stacked and set up to transition nicely from this starting unit into the future starting unit.  I think Morey has been ahead of the game.  While other teams are frantically trying to assemble a roster of 'tweeners around an MVP-caliber player to combat/copy the Warriors, we are already there.

 

Speaking of the Warriors--their run of good luck just won't end.  Just when it appeared that maybe the salary cap would put the brakes on that team it is set to jump about 60% over the next couple of seasons meaning they can keep this thing going for the next 4-6 years without sweating.

 

I'm looking forward to the re-match with them.  

[majik19]

I think no more than 4 wins separate the (healthy) Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, and Thunder. I'm skeptical about the Thunder... Durant's foot issues are scary, and I don't think they have the depth that the Warriors, Spurs, or Rockets have. The Clippers lack for depth as well, but I think they're definitely better than last year (with a big caveat being chemistry - that team seems volatile as hell with those personalities). As long as the Clippers are winning, I think they'll be good... but if they lose a lot in a stretch, that team could come apart very, very quickly. 

 

I don't want to forget the Grizzlies or Pelicans in all this, but both lack the starpower and depth of the teams above them. Anthony Davis could make a lot of predictions a moot point by going Lebron circa 2008 on us, but a good thing to remember is Lebron played in the Eastern Conference, so winning the #1 seed and getting to the Finals by himself wasn't as much an accomplishment. 

 

By the way, am I the only one that thinks the West's top 4, if not the top 6, are better than anyone in the East, even the $200 million Cavs? Every year, we wonder how the parity could get bigger between the conferences... and every year, it does!

[thejohnnygold]

I think no more than 4 wins separate the (healthy) Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, and Thunder. I'm skeptical about the Thunder... Durant's foot issues are scary, and I don't think they have the depth that the Warriors, Spurs, or Rockets have. The Clippers lack for depth as well, but I think they're definitely better than last year (with a big caveat being chemistry - that team seems volatile as hell with those personalities). As long as the Clippers are winning, I think they'll be good... but if they lose a lot in a stretch, that team could come apart very, very quickly. 

 

I don't want to forget the Grizzlies or Pelicans in all this, but both lack the starpower and depth of the teams above them. Anthony Davis could make a lot of predictions a moot point by going Lebron circa 2008 on us, but a good thing to remember is Lebron played in the Eastern Conference, so winning the #1 seed and getting to the Finals by himself wasn't as much an accomplishment. 

 

By the way, am I the only one that thinks the West's top 4, if not the top 6, are better than anyone in the East, even the $200 million Cavs? Every year, we wonder how the parity could get bigger between the conferences... and every year, it does!

 

I don't know about the West's top 4-6 being better than the Cavs.  They were rolling heading into the playoffs and have a formidable "Big 3" which includes some guy named, LeBron.  There are still a lot of Rockets' fans who would rather have Irving over Lawson.  Love over Motie/Jones.  They have a good team with quality role players in Thompson, Mozgov, Shump, Delladova, Varejao (when he's healthy), Mike Miller, James Jones, Mo Williams, and probably JR Smith (if you consider him an asset  ).  In my opinion, that's a top 4 team in the West.

 

Now, in the playoffs they would find themselves in the same boat as everyone else.  Basically, winning the NBA title coming from the Western Conference requires beating 3 championship caliber teams.  Good luck.

 

In other news, talk of Patrick Beverley's defensive drop-off may be unfounded.  Check out this article which was meant to tout Damian Lillard's defense, but in the process shows Patrick Beverley in the top 10 of 3 critical defensive categories for PG's.  The short version is Beverley ranked 3rd in ISO defense, 9th in PnR defense, and 9th in Spot up defense.

 

Looking closer, he is realistically tied for 1st in ISO defense with Dragic and Paul.  Dragic's season was split and his entire season average would most likely be tied with Paul and Bev.  Bev is also more impressive because he averages more "defenses" per game than the others--meaning he is consistently good.

 

The only other player to appear in the top 10 of all 3 categories: Rajon Rondo.

 

Conclusion: The Rockets are going to be good.

[Willk]

I don't know about the West's top 4-6 being better than the Cavs. They were rolling heading into the playoffs and have a formidable "Big 3" which includes some guy named, LeBron. There are still a lot of Rockets' fans who would rather have Irving over Lawson. Love over Motie/Jones. They have a good team with quality role players in Thompson, Mozgov, Shump, Delladova, Varejao (when he's healthy), Mike Miller, James Jones, Mo Williams, and probably JR Smith (if you consider him an asset ). In my opinion, that's a top 4 team in the West.

Now, in the playoffs they would find themselves in the same boat as everyone else. Basically, winning the NBA title coming from the Western Conference requires beating 3 championship caliber teams. Good luck.

In other news, talk of Patrick Beverley's defensive drop-off may be unfounded. Check out this article which was meant to tout Damian Lillard's defense, but in the process shows Patrick Beverley in the top 10 of 3 critical defensive categories for PG's. The short version is Beverley ranked 3rd in ISO defense, 9th in PnR defense, and 9th in Spot up defense.

Looking closer, he is realistically tied for 1st in ISO defense with Dragic and Paul. Dragic's season was split and his entire season average would most likely be tied with Paul and Bev. Bev is also more impressive because he averages more "defenses" per game than the others--meaning he is consistently good.

The only other player to appear in the top 10 of all 3 categories: Rajon Rondo.

Conclusion: The Rockets are going to be good.

nice catch on the article JG!

[thejohnnygold]

nice catch on the article JG!

 

Thanks!

 

Thinking about Cleveland some more...there is some merit in considering how well they would fare in the WC.  They were 18-12 overall vs. the WC including 5-5 vs. the Southwest Div., 7-3 vs. the Pacific Div., and 6-4 vs. the Northwest.

 

For comparison, Houston was 33-19 vs. the WC.  8-8 vs. the Southwest Div, 10-8 vs. the Pacific, and 15-3 vs. the Northwest.

 

Not sure if that means much of anything...just thought I'd put it here for consideration.

[Cooper]

The cavs would be in the top 4 out west and have a real good chance of beating whoever makes it to the finals Lebron is too good for them not to be.

[clydesmoustache]

The cavs would be in the top 4 out west and have a real good chance of beating whoever makes it to the finals Lebron is too good for them not to be.

I agree but he wouldn't be able to go into "chill mode" or "GM mode" or any other mode except BEAST mode! The west does not allow rest!