82 replies to this topic

[YaoMan]

....Jimmer Fredette is dead last 

By the way, Jimmer Fredette being last in any kind of defensive metrics or statistics wouldn't surprise me in the least!!!

[thejohnnygold]

@Yaoman

 

I was not slamming you for using RAPM.  It was not personal and should not be taken that way--sorry if it came across differently.  Prior to you joining this forum, long, drawn out discussions on RAPM occurred and, ultimately, some decided they liked it and some (like myself) did not.  As my post said, it is fine to use it.  I simply suggested using caution due to the nature of the metric.  Like it or not, that stat is little more than smoke and mirrors.

 

It's mathematical wizardry that, ultimately, adds very little value or understanding to any discussion.  Yes, it is fancy and there are baesian regressions, adjustments, weighting, and a slew of other number manipulations (they also keep parts of it secret--for proprietary reasons--because to them it is about making money not sharing information).  By the time they are done it's more about math then player evaluation.  They did an amazing job of crunching numbers, but missed the mark with their ultimate goal in my estimation.  They use height as a factor.  Freakin' height!   Think about that....

 

I see that your post has garnered some popular support.  To everybody, opinion is not being stifled here.  Observation is not being stifled.  Nobody is being stifled.  People are missing the point.  Support your assertions because they are going to get questioned.  Support your assertions because it makes for better reading.  Support your assertions because it creates better understanding.  Don't presume that providing support protects you from scrutiny.  This is how we gain deeper understandings.

 

We all speculate around here.  It is a tenet of this site to always remember to discern between speculation and fact.  That is all that was ever called into question.  It is a grey area at times.  Some people are reacting as if they can no longer post for fear of being told they are wrong.  I'm sorry, but that's how things work around here.  We are not here to affirm each other's opinions.

 

It should be noted that Patrick Beverley, who garnered a solid DRPM, is believed by tons of people to be a terrible defender who, by the eye test and statistically, is as over-rated as they come.  If we were in a thread discussing his defense, and someone used that DRPM to support their point, it would be equally fallible as it is with Harden.

 

According to Mark Jackson, Steph Curry is a very good defender.  DRPM says the exact opposite.  What do we believe?  A number or a hall of fame player?  One of them is wrong.

 

The point is, my post about DRPM was not about discrediting your perspective nor stifling your right to opine--I mostly agree with you and I do appreciate the quality of your post.  It is simply my opinion on the matter and I invite everyone to make their own decision after researching what the stat is and is not (which is why I included the link to hickory high--a respected b-ball site).  It is presented as a face value stat, but it is far, far from it.

[YaoMan]

@Yaoman

 

I was not slamming you for using RAPM.  It was not personal and should not be taken that way--sorry if it came across differently.  Prior to you joining this forum, long, drawn out discussions on RAPM occurred and, ultimately, some decided they liked it and some (like myself) did not.  As my post said, it is fine to use it.  I simply suggested using caution due to the nature of the metric.  Like it or not, that stat is little more than smoke and mirrors.

 

It's mathematical wizardry that, ultimately, adds very little value or understanding to any discussion.  Yes, it is fancy and there are baesian regressions, adjustments, weighting, and a slew of other number manipulations (they also keep parts of it secret--for proprietary reasons--because to them it is about making money not sharing information).  By the time they are done it's more about math then player evaluation.  They did an amazing job of crunching numbers, but missed the mark with their ultimate goal in my estimation.  They use height as a factor.  Freakin' height!   Think about that....

 

I see that your post has garnered some popular support.  To everybody, opinion is not being stifled here.  Observation is not being stifled.  Nobody is being stifled.  People are missing the point.  Support your assertions because they are going to get questioned.  Support your assertions because it makes for better reading.  Support your assertions because it creates better understanding.  Don't presume that providing support protects you from scrutiny.  This is how we gain deeper understandings.

 

We all speculate around here.  It is a tenet of this site to always remember to discern between speculation and fact.  That is all that was ever called into question.  It is a grey area at times.  Some people are reacting as if they can no longer post for fear of being told they are wrong.  I'm sorry, but that's how things work around here.  We are not here to affirm each other's opinions.

 

It should be noted that Patrick Beverley, who garnered a solid DRPM, is believed by tons of people to be a terrible defender who, by the eye test and statistically, is as over-rated as they come.  If we were in a thread discussing his defense, and someone used that DRPM to support their point, it would be equally fallible as it is with Harden.

 

According to Mark Jackson, Steph Curry is a very good defender.  DRPM says the exact opposite.  What do we believe?  A number or a hall of fame player?  One of them is wrong.

 

The point is, my post about DRPM was not about discrediting your perspective nor stifling your right to opine--I mostly agree with you and I do appreciate the quality of your post.  It is simply my opinion on the matter and I invite everyone to make their own decision after researching what the stat is and is not (which is why I included the link to hickory high--a respected b-ball site).  It is presented as a face value stat, but it is far, far from it.

That is a post carried out with thoughtfulness and respect.  Thanks JG. This is one of the reasons I joined this forum and appreciate it. 

And although I try to read yours, RBF, TTDN, and many others' older posts, it is hard to gauge all your opinions of certain metrics and such because there is so much to read!!!! And sometimes I'll read an old thread and end up laughing or shaking my head or agreeing or something to the point where I forgot to peruse through the rest of the forums I meant to catch up on.

BTW, for people to believe that Bev is not a solid defender, well then, they haven't watched the games very well! Could this be the time I can point to the DRPM?

Edited by YaoMan, 15 August 2014 - 07:08 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

That is a post carried out with thoughtfulness and respect.  Thanks JG. This is one of the reasons I joined this forum and appreciate it. 

And although I try to read yours, RBF, TTDN, and many others' older posts, it is hard to gauge all your opinions of certain metrics and such because there is so much to read!!!! And sometimes I'll read an old thread and end up laughing or shaking my head or agreeing or something to the point where I forgot to peruse through the rest of the forums I meant to catch up on.

BTW, for people to believe that Bev is not a solid defender, well then, they haven't watched the games very well! Could this be the time I can point to the DRPM?

 

 

Sure, point all you want.  I would still remind you that I think it is a pretty weak stat to support your stance. 

 

It's true that the volumes of reading required to catch up on just the last two years' worth of conversation would require a month long hiatus from working and probably only sleeping 4 hours a night.  

 

RAPM, at its core, is still a team statistic just like Ortg, Drtg, and +/-.  Of all of those I prefer +/- because it has not been fiddled with.  It is the most black and white statistic of the group.  It's not an estimate.  It's not manipulated beyond recognition.  And it is not presented as a ranking or type of player relativity.  +/- has its own flaws.  It can't be helped if you are playing Center for 4 minutes and all of a sudden Steph Curry uncorks 12 unanswered points on outside jumpers against your team and then you get subbed back out.  All the box score shows is that you are -12.  So, without watching the games none of these stats are useful, but that should go without saying.  At least you can look at the play-by-play to see how it all went down.

 

From there, +/- can be given context through knowledge, understanding, and observation.  For instance, Kosta Koufos is likely a huge benficiary from playing on a team full of defensive specialists that play at a slower than average pace.  Imagine playing alongside Zach Randolph, Tony Allen, Tayshaun Prince, Mike Conley, Courtney Lee, and even Jarryd Bayless (before the trade) is pretty good on that end.  Koufos' job was pretty easy especially considering there are not many offensively gifted centers in the league to contend with.

 

So, what does DRPM tell me about Koufos?  Not a single thing that I already did not know.  He was a good fit for the role he was in.  Is he a top 40 defender in this league?  I'm sure his agent is telling management that, but nobody else is buying it.

 

It also should be mentioned that for 3/4 of the season he was coming off the bench (meaning playing against even more inferior offensive players).

 

Joakim Noah was 14th in DRPM last season.  He was voted Defensive Player of the Year.  Tiago Splitter was ranked ahead of him at #9.  Am I the only one that has a problem with this?  Ryan Hollins is ranked #15....11 spots ahead of his team mate DeAndre Jordan at #26....who starts ahead of him and was in contention for DPOY as well.

 

The top 40 is littered with bench players--another sign that quality of competition is not being factored properly.  Hasheem Thabeet is #24!!!!    Did you know that on a per36 basis Thabeet commits 8.8 fouls per game and on a per100 possession basis he commits 12.3 fouls per game?    Where is that little tidbit factored in???  (For comparison, Dwight Howard averages 3.6 fouls per 36 and 5.0 fouls per 100p)

 

Long story short--I will likely never lend much credence to DRPM or Ortng/Drtng.  That doesn't mean people are not free to use them.  Heck, people still use Bleacher Report  .

[Steven]

Basic two year review.

Lin great/Lin sucks

McHale great/ McHale sucks

Harden great/ Harden sucks

Numbers numbers numbers

Canaan Truthers

Morey great/ Morey sucks

More numbers numbers numbers

Lin sucks

[thejohnnygold]

You forgot some....

 

We should be more like San Antonio

 

We need better free agents

 

We should develop our own guys

 

We should trade everyone

 

We shouldn't trade anyone

 

We should be more like San Antonio

 

San Antonio, San Antonio, San Antonio...

 

 

San Antonio

[YaoMan]

Basic two year review.

Lin great/Lin sucks

McHale great/ McHale sucks

Harden great/ Harden sucks

Numbers numbers numbers

Canaan Truthers

Morey great/ Morey sucks

More numbers numbers numbers

Lin sucks

So everyone's great and then everyone sucks too! Great! LOL

[YaoMan]

Long story short--I will likely never lend much credence to DRPM or Ortng/Drtng.  That doesn't mean people are not free to use them.  Heck, people still use Bleacher Report  .

Yeah I never believed the ranking of players by any statistics but just thought it would be a good jest for the issue we mentioned about Bev being overrated by people who haven't watched him play!
 

 

We should be more like San Antonio

 

San Antonio, San Antonio, San Antonio...

 

San Antonio

On the subject of San Antonio, is it alright to like their players and coaches but have absolute disdain for their organization?

[timetodienow1234567]

Yeah we should be more like the Sixers. Forget SA as a blueprint.

[thejohnnygold]

Yeah we should be more like the Sixers. Forget SA as a blueprint.

 

It's easy.  Just draft one of the top players of all time and make sure he avoids any major injuries throughout his career.  Have an elite GM who ends up being the best coach in the league.  Draft an elite PG.  Draft an elite wing scorer who is fine playing the 6th man.  Convince them that they want to live in Houston for their entire careers and that an HEB endorsement deal will suffice since money is not their main concern.  Enjoy a 15+ year window in which they can compete for championships.  Piece of cake.

 

By the way, SA tanked their way to Tim Duncan so maybe the Sixers blueprint is the Spurs blueprint....

[Buckko]

Well they did get the spurs development coach. 

[Steven]

Think the Spurs will go with co-Ed showers this year?

[rockets best fan]

@JG

the scene from Bruce Almighty is my favorite part  I agree the spurs tank their way to the foundation that set up this run they have had. Philly's plan is to do exactly the same thing and so far they are right on schedule. however I think some people forget there is more than one way to skin a cat. championships require certain ingredients and no matter how you acquire them all that matters is the fact you did acquire them. I respect what SA built too, but it's not the only blueprint..........far from it. what SA built requires time and patience in addition to a little luck. also I don't know if today's star players will humble themselves in the way Duncan, Parker and Ginobili have. they have been on board with SA's plan from the beginning. without their cooperation at various points along the way a match would have destroyed the plan long ago. so those who think you can just snap your fingers and you got SA's plan have deceived themselves. we didn't use SA's plan yet we are very near the required ingredients needed to win a championship with a team that could contend for some years to come and we did it all without tanking to get it done.........credit to Morey

[Buckko]

Have to admit I'm curious to see how embiid and Noel turn out. If healthy both are by far the best players out of their respective draft class.

[thejohnnygold]

Check out the Sixers' salary situation.  Definitely not the usual stuff going on here.  LINK

 

Like you said, Buckko, if those two guys end up being healthy then Philly is going to get very good very fast.  They've got scorers and those two will close the paint down.

[Steven]

And the foreign winger they will bring over in two years, Saric I think.

[Buckko]

Saric is basically a point forward/stretch 4. Definitely great value for a 12th pick. Interesting factoid about embiid, he would always watch videos of Hakeem before games. He doesn't have the Dream's balance and finess, but Hakeem wasn't 7'1", with a 7'6" wingspan and that skilled offensively at that age. Noel is basically one of the best defensive players to ever come out of college. I'm keeping my eye on the 76ers and, the bucks if they draft Mudiay as possibly the next OKCs growing in the east.

[rockets best fan]

@Buckko

I agree Philly could be an OKC plan being un-hatched in the east. however if the NBA changes the lottery format before they can complete their talent acquisition it could throw a monkey wrench into their plans 

[Buckko]

Could be, but their main hole right now is a dominant wing scorer from the looks of this draft its big man top heavy with wing scorers in the lower top half, so winning the #1 pick for the 6ers might not be much more than a luxury of trading down. IMO it could be huge for the bucks though, because anyone with knowledge of the worst team's rosters and this draft's top prospects is the bucks lack an elite playmaking PG and Mudiay is their man. Mudiay is expected to go top 5 at least, probably top 3 unless he crashes and burns in china which I doubt. If Mudiay, Giannis, and Parker reach their potential as a big 3 plus the other young talented parts, that's another extremely dangerous team in 5 years.

[timetodienow1234567]

Noel is 2-3 years out from being a serviceable jump shooter. Which coincides with their window. If the lottery is changed watch Philly offer a 2 year max (2nd year team option) for Bledsoe and move to a 2 PG set. If they keep Young which is possible, they will be a playoff team in the East. If they move Young they're still bad enough to be in the lottery but if position doesn't matter in the lottery (with the proposed rule changes) why not go after Bledsoe?