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Houston Rockets' summer assignment list: Part 2, James Harden
#21
Posted 13 August 2014 - 02:29 AM
#22
Posted 13 August 2014 - 04:14 AM
I agree Buckko............great post Willk
you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own
#23
Posted 13 August 2014 - 04:26 AM
There's all this talk about how he's only 25. When it comes to his personal life, I agree. Who cares if he enjoys the occasional lapdance. But when it comes to basketball, 25 years is far more than enough time to learn appropriate team behavior. These players go through the issues with losing and getting shut down or having bad offensive games or not being the top dog in college ... high school ... heck, in their moms' minivans. When it comes to waiting for entertainers to mature, you can be waiting a long time. I was surprised Mo Williams is 30 acting childish to rookies.
#24
Posted 13 August 2014 - 04:32 AM
I do want to say this, body-language-wise. I did see Harden have three horrible quarters and make the extemporaneous "nasty" "I'm a bad man" face after sinking one while the team is still losing, instead of getting back on defense. I wanted to scream after seeing that. Popovich would sit his ass down, lol. I don't feel like looking up which game it was, but you guys saw it too. Just may not have judged it the same way. It was a prime illustration of the "selfish" criticism.
Edited by QNoir, 13 August 2014 - 04:34 AM.
#25
Posted 13 August 2014 - 05:31 AM
I never realized this Forum had so many body language reading professionals
you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own
#26
Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:35 AM
@thenit
I have been critical of Harden myself, but where is the line in reasonable criticism and piling on unjust dirt to help validate other points. we are all in agreement Harden needs to improve, but using OUR frustration of OUR expectations of him to label him because he's not as developed as we would like is unjust. which one of you had your sh** together when you were 25? Harden is developing as a player and a man. sometime you don't have all the answers when your 25. problem is he's learning how to be both in the limelight of the NBA. so while he does deserve critical review we must not lose context of the situation
This post in its entirety is kind of the entire point I was trying to make. He doesn't have his sh*t together, but that's ok...no one does. I feel he has flaws, but I don't think they are irredeemable. And even if he is flawed, that isn't prohibitive to being great (look at Kobe). But despite all of that, I think we can all agree he needs to start trying on defense.
#27
Posted 13 August 2014 - 01:40 PM
JG - I personally do not think you were too hard on Rahat. I agree that there should be some facts behind what you decide to write.
Rahat claims Harden was out of shape & huffing & puffing at the end of games. Well, Harden averaged the 5th highest minutes per game this past season. Maybe he played too many minutes and that is what caused his "huffing & puffing." Lebron was 6th in minutes and I saw him huffing and puffing at times too, maybe he was out of shape.
Yeah, but Lebron is an All NBA Defender and works hard on the defensive end, usually playing the role of the lockdown defender on the other team's best player. Playing both sides of the ball will tend to exhaust you compared to watching guys drive past you regularly with what seems like tacit approval. So that "fitness" statement is false. He gives you more offensively and a sht ton more defensively than Harden does in fewer minutes. Don't muddle the facts.
I'm more on the side of johnnygold, rockets best fan and Buckko but I respect all the opinions here.
Well that is just patently false....
Edited by bladad, 13 August 2014 - 01:42 PM.
#28
Posted 13 August 2014 - 02:26 PM
Yeah, but Lebron is an All NBA Defender and works hard on the defensive end, usually playing the role of the lockdown defender on the other team's best player. Playing both sides of the ball will tend to exhaust you compared to watching guys drive past you regularly with what seems like tacit approval. So that "fitness" statement is false. He gives you more offensively and a sht ton more defensively than Harden does in fewer minutes. Don't muddle the facts.
Well that is just patently false....
I never saw Harden pull himself out of a game in the Finals from exhaustion either. Can you imagine the amount of flak Harden would've gotten for that? You can't sit here and rag on a guy about being out of shape when he played the 5th most minutes in the league while continuing to power our offense. You can harp on "well he doesn't play defense" all you want, but last I checked he doesn't just stand still and let his man score every time. If he did that we would've been nowhere near 54 wins. He exerts energy on that end, but you can't see what you don't want to see.
#29
Posted 13 August 2014 - 02:27 PM
My only peeve in this post:
In hindsight, its even more alarming looking back.
Seriously though, I think Harden's body language is just as misread as T-mac's was. Only he knows what motivates him, and if we're having a tough game and he sinks a shot and follows it with the scowl, no need to berate or judge him for it. To me he's pumping himself up. I have no doubt in my mind that his goal is to win, and that's about all we can ask of him as fans. Not to actually win, but to have the desire to do so.
As far as JG's criticism of this post: I think now that Rahat's all "lawyered-up" it has become a professional habit for him to present opinions in such a matter that those reading accept it as fact. After all, it's his job (other than chief at Red94). If he was to rewrite the same post, and instead hammered home the idea that it was only an opinion with language like: "It's my opinion that Harden's body language..." Then he would be effectively undoing everything he learned about presenting arguments in Law School. I think the most compelling thing about this forum is that it strikes a nice balance between facts and opinions, and we generally respect other's opinions even if we don't agree. If it were only facts, charts and stats it would be boring and basically just a circle jerk. At the same time, if it were nothing but emotional spouting-off (like some forums), it would be just as annoying. As fans, we are emotional by nature and if something doesn't pass someone's "eye test" here, there is no reason they shouldn't voice that concern regardless of if it's backed by facts. If you agree or disagree, then respond. If you just simply don't like that an opinion has been posted, then move on to a post of your liking. Simple. Next, someone will ask for disclaimers on comments whether they are factual or opinions. (and the mice will scatter)
#30
Posted 13 August 2014 - 02:42 PM
I never saw Harden pull himself out of a game in the Finals from exhaustion either. Can you imagine the amount of flak Harden would've gotten for that? You can't sit here and rag on a guy about being out of shape when he played the 5th most minutes in the league while continuing to power our offense. You can harp on "well he doesn't play defense" all you want, but last I checked he doesn't just stand still and let his man score every time. If he did that we would've been nowhere near 54 wins. He exerts energy on that end, but you can't see what you don't want to see.
His one failing in an otherwise stellar season. And for the record, I wasn't sitting here ragging on his fitness. I was refuting another post's pointless and erroneous argument. The level of energy necessary to play both sides of the court at an all star level =/= the level of energy playing the offensive side of the ball. Anybody who has ever played basketball at a competitive level before knows that playing great defense on the opposing team's best player will always be more taxing than scoring the ball.
#31
Posted 13 August 2014 - 03:07 PM
If you have such a poor view of the readers/commenters on this board and view them as sheep then why come here? That's my only problem with this debate so far. I understand that others read the situation with Harden completely differently since there's no evidence to back up either side conclusively.
Why so Serious?
#32
Posted 13 August 2014 - 03:16 PM
His one failing in an otherwise stellar season. And for the record, I wasn't sitting here ragging on his fitness. I was refuting another post's pointless and erroneous argument. The level of energy necessary to play both sides of the court at an all star level =/= the level of energy playing the offensive side of the ball. Anybody who has ever played basketball at a competitive level before knows that playing great defense on the opposing team's best player will always be more taxing than scoring the ball.
Fair enough. I still don't have a problem with Wilk's post, and don't understand where he was trying to muddle facts.
I don't know if you watched many Miami games last year. Lebron's defense was not that great last season, and he took plays off just like any other player. He was also "huffing and puffing" late in games (as every player I've ever seen giving it his all do). We all know Harden's defensive stats. He gave up a 53.8% fg % at the rim with 1.3 fgm on 2.3 fga. Awful I know! Lebron with his shutdown defense allowed 51.9 % with 1.4 fgm on 2.8 fga.
I know you will write it off as guarding the best player etc., but he did not always guard the best offensive player. He might switch onto him the last two minutes or what not, but not the entire game. The Heat and probably Lebron himself didn't want him going balls to the wall all game defensively, because they knew he had to shoulder the offensive load... hmmm sounds awfully familiar. The Heat also played at a slow pace, where we were a faster paced team so theoretically our players should get tired quicker.
The whole point of this post is not to knock Lebron or even try to compare Harden to Lebron defensively. I would never argue that. My point is to judge or criticize these elite athletes because they are breathing hard at the end of game they likely played 40 mins. in is ridiculous. That is all.
#33
Posted 13 August 2014 - 03:30 PM
Lebron has apparently lost a lot of weight this offseason so maybe he was a little out of shape, plus 4 years of 100 game seasons with title or bust expectations is hard to compare to Harden.
#34
Posted 13 August 2014 - 08:39 PM
Oh bladad, you're so sensitive.Well that is just patently false....
I also didn't underline any words though you decided to edit what I wrote, pretty funny.
#35
Posted 13 August 2014 - 09:40 PM
So for the most part, I agree with Rahat. His opinion of body language (Harden's) is, of course, his (Rahat's opinion). However, Harden's atrocious defense cannot be excused in any sense of the meaning.
According to ESPN's Real Plus Minus or RPM for short, James Harden's Defensive RPM rating is -2.84 which is 397th out of 437. I mean come on - the Rockets' super star player is close to last among all players in the entire NBA in this category. You really can't be a superstar or on an all NBA team when you're that bad on defense. I think it's do or die time for him to show that he can play defense and that he's not in the bottom tenth in the whole league in Defensive RPM. Even if his effort is there, this number will change and extra wins will come.
On the flip side Howard is number 6 in DRPM (Asik was ranked right behind him at number 7) and Bev is the Rocket's highest total RPM at 4.27 for #20th in the league with Howard's 4.24 being #22 overall. Harden is ranked #45 even with his near bottom defensive rating. Just imagine, if he would bring his defensive RPM to a -1 or just even. He really wouldn't need to score as much or make a miracle shot against WAS or have O'neal goal tend a 3pt shot at the buzzer and Lillard's 3 at the buzzer wouldn't have mattered.
I see that as the biggest gripe with Harden. While I agree with Rahat's points, the only thing that matters to me as far as James Harden is concerned (because he cancels out a lot of his negatives with his positives) is putting forth effort on D. If he does that this coming season, all bets are off and Rockets can go deep.
Edited by YaoMan, 13 August 2014 - 09:41 PM.
#36
Posted 13 August 2014 - 11:06 PM
So, RAPM is back, huh?
I realize this is ESPN's own fancy version of it, but in the fine print at the bottom of the page, they credit the RAPM guy for the vast majority of it.
Here is a must read from Hickory High if people are going to make any assertions using this statistic. LINK
It simply cannot be used in the same way as a basic stat like "points" or "rebounds".
I mean, pardon me for pointing out that Larry Sanders is #2 in DRPM (because it is way over-inflated from the previous season's stats)
Or that only one player in the top 40 for DRPM is a guard (the coveted Eric Bledsoe). Draymond Green plays PF (despite his SF listing). Allen and Green both play SF when they are on the court. That's still a total of 5 players in the top 40 (Paul freakin' Pierce made the top 40!!!) who aren't PF's or Centers. I'm pretty sure that's not how it works in real life.
Hey, if you want me to believe that Kosta Koufos is a better defender than Paul George go right ahead and try...according to DRPM he is. He is also better than Kawhi Leonard, Al-Farouq Aminu (who only brings defense to the table), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (the same), Chris Paul, Thabo Sefolosha, Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler, Avery Bradley, Trevor Ariza, and Zach Randolph--and that's just some of the top 120.
This is still a team statistic--they have tried to isolate it down to one player but that is impossible and misleading when they claim to have done it. The numbers are jiggered and figured until they fit a pre-conceived ideal. In case anyone forgot--I have no love for this metric.
I find a simple "on-off" stat to be much more telling. than these contrived "figures" that somehow purport to rank players all willy-nilly. The longer one looks at that list the less sense it will make. For every player that fits in with the "eye test" another one pops up where the eye test makes you think an orangutan is crunching the numbers.
Check out Harden's on-off from basketball reference: LINK Notice that Harden being on the court is a plus defensively except for Ortg which barely moves from 106.2 to 106.0.
Keep in mind that I am not saying Harden was a great defender last season, but let's be realistic. I'd like to point out that our own D-Mo scored a positive DRPM of .53 putting him 5 spots ahead of Francisco Garcia. Hmmm, what else is there to see? Nic Batum is ranked #283 on defense....a little suspect. Wes Matthews is #296...also suspect. Terrence Jones rolls in at #360. Rajon Rondo is next at #361 There's Damian Lillard at #368....Jimmer Fredette is dead last
I'm not trying to stifle anyone--just want people to be educated on this stat and to use caution when wielding it. To me, the RPM stats have more negatives than positives and, ultimately, are poor indicators of relative performance.
This is a team game and it may be fun to evaluate individual performance, but I will always prefer team dynamics. One last note--Harden needs to improve his defense--team defense!.
#37
Posted 14 August 2014 - 01:49 AM
@Rahat
I understand and agree with some of your critical view of Harden. my point is I think you went to far in assessing his faults. I don't give much credit to rumors from other teams and body language so for you to use them in support of a behavioral pattern was overboard. IMO quitting is a character issue. before I go on record attacking a man character I need more concrete evidence than rumors and body language. that was my only reservation in reading your article. YES Harden should have critical review like everybody else, but like I said in previous post, we must not lose context because of our own frustration with him
you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own
#38
Posted 14 August 2014 - 03:18 PM
Off with his head!
#39
Posted 15 August 2014 - 12:28 AM
Off with his head!
LoSTHieF
I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Skilled
#40
Posted 15 August 2014 - 03:03 PM
POPULAR
So, RAPM is back, huh?
I realize this is ESPN's own fancy version of it, but in the fine print at the bottom of the page, they credit the RAPM guy for the vast majority of it.
Here is a must read from Hickory High if people are going to make any assertions using this statistic. LINK
It simply cannot be used in the same way as a basic stat like "points" or "rebounds".
I mean, pardon me for pointing out that Larry Sanders is #2 in DRPM (because it is way over-inflated from the previous season's stats)
Or that only one player in the top 40 for DRPM is a guard (the coveted Eric Bledsoe). Draymond Green plays PF (despite his SF listing). Allen and Green both play SF when they are on the court. That's still a total of 5 players in the top 40 (Paul freakin' Pierce made the top 40!!!) who aren't PF's or Centers. I'm pretty sure that's not how it works in real life.
Hey, if you want me to believe that Kosta Koufos is a better defender than Paul George go right ahead and try...according to DRPM he is. He is also better than Kawhi Leonard, Al-Farouq Aminu (who only brings defense to the table), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (the same), Chris Paul, Thabo Sefolosha, Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler, Avery Bradley, Trevor Ariza, and Zach Randolph--and that's just some of the top 120.
This is still a team statistic--they have tried to isolate it down to one player but that is impossible and misleading when they claim to have done it. The numbers are jiggered and figured until they fit a pre-conceived ideal. In case anyone forgot--I have no love for this metric.
I find a simple "on-off" stat to be much more telling. than these contrived "figures" that somehow purport to rank players all willy-nilly. The longer one looks at that list the less sense it will make. For every player that fits in with the "eye test" another one pops up where the eye test makes you think an orangutan is crunching the numbers.
Check out Harden's on-off from basketball reference: LINK Notice that Harden being on the court is a plus defensively except for Ortg which barely moves from 106.2 to 106.0.
Keep in mind that I am not saying Harden was a great defender last season, but let's be realistic. I'd like to point out that our own D-Mo scored a positive DRPM of .53 putting him 5 spots ahead of Francisco Garcia. Hmmm, what else is there to see? Nic Batum is ranked #283 on defense....a little suspect. Wes Matthews is #296...also suspect. Terrence Jones rolls in at #360. Rajon Rondo is next at #361 There's Damian Lillard at #368....Jimmer Fredette is dead last
I'm not trying to stifle anyone--just want people to be educated on this stat and to use caution when wielding it. To me, the RPM stats have more negatives than positives and, ultimately, are poor indicators of relative performance.
This is a team game and it may be fun to evaluate individual performance, but I will always prefer team dynamics. One last note--Harden needs to improve his defense--team defense!.
I never said that the DRPM (or RPM) is a end all, be all statistic. I'm not an advanced statistician but if you have the sufficient data to completely debunk ESPN's formula, I say put that together and get paid!
I don't think the metric tells you which player is better than another like saying Koufas is better than George is defensively. I think it measures the point differential impact for player's on court time filtering many statistics within it and the defensive scoring ratio based on a number of factors in their metrics. Perhaps, Koufas presence in a game reduces the percentage and number of close shots at the rim that are measurable and quantifiable. What is not measurable is the hounding presence that George can present on an offensive player which makes that player pass to another option or run another offensive set. How do you measure that? By watching the game, of course! But everyone absolutely wanted to behead Rahat for using his judgment when watching the games. There are intangibles that do account for a lot of things that cannot be measured or quantified as we all know.
So given that I am using a measurable stat (fallible, it may be) to state that Harden just needs to give effort on his D. I've watched him D up players in OKC and believe he is better than average when he tries. It's what Rahat was seeing in the "eye test" like when he cheats to the middle of the lane, and loses his man completely for a lay up or open jumper that's egregious.
Whether ESPN's metric is completely off or not, I think the point was about the "eye" test because I'm pretty sure that everyone was saying that the eye test (body language) says absolutely nothing and is not a stat or anything tangible that can be proven or disproven. And even that matters very little to me - what I'm saying is that for all the knocks Harden has, which every star in this league has, his greatness is there. My point is if his defensive effort is there (and I know he can D-up), no metric or stat would matter as the wins would take care of themselves and this team will be better. That's when I think he will ascend to super stardom.
I will say this when reading the thread, a lot of talk saying that using no stats or proof to back something up and basing an opinion from just watching someone made people upset. Yet when I bring up a stat that I'm sure a group of statisticians came up with that is being used by the single largest sports media in the world, I kind of got slammed for bringing it up. And no where in my post did I say I adamantly believed its rating. I just said Beverly, Asik (when he was on the court) and Howard all showed up high and we can see how their defensive presence makes a difference when watching the game and some of that is quantifiable (and some are not). All this suggests (see how I said suggests ) is that when watching the game and using any form of quantifiable statistics, Harden's D is less than desirable. There's no doubt in my mind if Harden takes just a bit off his offense and puts in 50% more defensive effort (team defense would be great!), they will surprise many of the naysayers wrong. If he is the leader (you know because he's the cornerstone ), he must then lead by example.
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