90 replies to this topic

[timetodienow1234567]

Career rebounding Per 36

 

Bosh:  8.8

LMA : 7.9

 

TRB%

 

Bosh: 14.4

LMA: 13.2

 

Neither are great rebounders, but saying that LMA is the better of the two completely neglect all evidence to the contrary and simply base on "BECAUSE I SEE BOSH IS REALLY THIN!!!!!" 

 

As for defender.  they're basically similar, Bosh has a very very slight advantage in block numbers that essentially neglect able. they essentially have the same steal / block numbers. their career DrTG is similiar as well, Bosh is lower but mostly because of the last couple years on the Heat.

 

The problem is,  those 2 are very similar players, except that Bosh simply is better at their strength.  he's scored more AND at a higher efficiency.  their career TS% is 571 vs 537,  between age 21 to 25 Bosh scored 21.8 per 36, Aldridge 17 per. and this was roughly the same USG too.

 

Saying LMA is better than Bosh is just absurd.  your credibility better be that of a professional scout to make the case from that perspective, because from objective stat sheet perspective it's pretty damn clear Bosh is considerably better. 

 

Why go with career numbers? Here are the last three years rebounding numbers for both Bosh and Aldridge

Bosh

2012 - 7.3

2011 - 8.1

2010 - 8.3

Aldridge

2012 - 8.6

2011 - 8.0

2010 - 7.9

 

Based on those numbers, it's pretty damning. The better rebounder is Aldridge. Aldridge is getting better while Bosh is declining. As there are no other bigs on the heat roster, Bosh is pretty much by himself out there rebounding wise(Lebron's a really good rebounder, but he's a SF).

 

Assists

Bosh

2012 - 1.8

2011 - 1.8

2010 - 1.9

Aldridge

2012 - 2.5

2011 - 2.4

2010 - 1.9

 

Again, clearly Aldridge is better. Seeing how great the rest of Miami's ball movement is, Bosh clearly isn't up to par. Who does Aldridge have to throw to? Batum? Lol. Once put into context, it's even more laughable.

 

Just going by the stats, it's pretty close. Also, one of Bosh's strengths that I said he had was the 3 pointer. Let's look at his averages the last three years.

2012 - .284

2011 - .286

2010 - .240

 

Now let's look at RAPM per 100 possessions for last year

Aldridge             OFF DEF TOT

LaMarcus Aldridge 1.7 2.1 3.8

 

Bosh

Chris Bosh -0.1 2.0 1.9

He got hot in the playoffs since he was wide open, but don't kid yourself. Also, his PER in the playoffs last year was a pedestrian 16.8. Let's not proclaim Bosh as anything more than what he is. An all star on the decline. Aldridge is an all star on the rise. And given the fact that nearly every shot Bosh takes is wide open, it's embarrassing when he misses. He's a very efficient number 3 option, don't get me wrong. He's just not better than Aldridge. He also has games where he's a no show(but since Aldridge doesn't have recent playoff numbers, we can't compare).

[ale11]

RollingWave: I'm not saying we must get Aldridge to Houston, I was just saying that once you get a deal that improves the team (a little, a lot, anyhow), you forget about missing a player whose potential is great and "what could have become" in a Rockets uniform.

 

I agree that 3 stars is too much, that money could be very well spent on two or three key role players.

[rockets best fan]

I don't really like the Aldridge fit. I would definitely take Dwight's ability to dominate down low over any low post game Aldridge has. Don't get me wrong I like Aldridge but I wonder how good of a fit he would really be, maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see it. I agree with some statements Olajuwon made in the Feigen interview that on both ends this team starts with Dwight, you go inside out.

I agree with you that we want to play inside out. however I disagree LMA is a bad fit. LMA is a range shooting big man which is exactly the right kind of player next to D-12. don't get me wrong I really love T-Jones, but LMA is a big man more closer to a Dirk type player without a 3 pointer. I do agree that a third star on a team can set a team back if the fit is a problem. the reason Bosh is nothing more than a glorified role player is the two stars he plays with. they never allow Bosh to establish any level of comfort in a game. he gets shots, but because of how they play his attempts only come as an after thought. they operate within each others spaces on the floor which causes problems for Bosh. He is still a good player, but playing a role he has trouble excelling at. now look at what Boston had Garnett, Pierce and Alan. they were players who didn't need to be in each others space to play their games which made them fit together. as long as the stars perform from different spots on the floor there should only be minimal adjustments needed to form a cohesive unit from them. that's what I think LMA can do for us. true we may already have that which we seek in T-Jones, but if LMA comes within our grasp we should go for it.

[Cooper]

Bosh and Aldridge are very comparable in fact I'd rather have bosh, you can say he no shows sometimes and he has help and whatever but bosh still has all star ability and was good defensively in the playoffs. He gets pushed around by big centers however he shouldn't have be guarding those guys in the first place and Aldrige does get pushed around by big centers too. Bosh wasn't just hot in the playoffs he shot well over 50% from midrange all season. Aldrige has more assists because the offense is run through him and in Miami bosh usually doesn't touch the ball till the end of the shot clock where he takes a shot. Both as number 1 options have made the playoffs twice putting up similar numbers bosh had a 18-9 and 24-9 series Aldrige with 19-6 and 21-7 In first round exits for both.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Bosh in 2010 was a superstar. Aldridge as a 1st option is a borderline All-Star. 

[RollingWave]

Why go with career numbers? Here are the last three years rebounding numbers for both Bosh and Aldridge

Bosh

2012 - 7.3

2011 - 8.1

2010 - 8.3

Aldridge

2012 - 8.6

2011 - 8.0

2010 - 7.9

 

Based on those numbers, it's pretty damning. The better rebounder is Aldridge. Aldridge is getting better while Bosh is declining. As there are no other bigs on the heat roster, Bosh is pretty much by himself out there rebounding wise(Lebron's a really good rebounder, but he's a SF).

 

Assists

Bosh

2012 - 1.8

2011 - 1.8

2010 - 1.9

Aldridge

2012 - 2.5

2011 - 2.4

2010 - 1.9

 

Again, clearly Aldridge is better. Seeing how great the rest of Miami's ball movement is, Bosh clearly isn't up to par. Who does Aldridge have to throw to? Batum? Lol. Once put into context, it's even more laughable.

 

Just going by the stats, it's pretty close. Also, one of Bosh's strengths that I said he had was the 3 pointer. Let's look at his averages the last three years.

2012 - .284

2011 - .286

2010 - .240

 

Now let's look at RAPM per 100 possessions for last year

Aldridge             OFF DEF TOT

LaMarcus Aldridge 1.7 2.1 3.8

 

Bosh

Chris Bosh -0.1 2.0 1.9

He got hot in the playoffs since he was wide open, but don't kid yourself. Also, his PER in the playoffs last year was a pedestrian 16.8. Let's not proclaim Bosh as anything more than what he is. An all star on the decline. Aldridge is an all star on the rise. And given the fact that nearly every shot Bosh takes is wide open, it's embarrassing when he misses. He's a very efficient number 3 option, don't get me wrong. He's just not better than Aldridge. He also has games where he's a no show(but since Aldridge doesn't have recent playoff numbers, we can't compare).

 

In the last 3 years, Bosh is in a different role than when he was on Toronto, I'm fairly sure Bosh in Toronto is a much more adept comparison to Aldridge now in terms of ability comparison, and even in terms of age context as well. Just like we're not going to argue that Lebron is better than Jordan because Jordan will got roasted if he plays Lebron RIGHT NOW.  remember, we're projecting LMA GOING FORWARD, so using a guy who plays a very similar style, and is basically better than him in the same age context in the same role. seem to be much more rational than comparing said player 3 years later in different role.  and as I noted, if anything, Bosh's "decline" is the big reason why you should consider against making such a move.  Because it's super likely he'll have a similar drop.

 

 

Also, in the last 3 season, Bosh's TRB% is 13.2,  LMA is 13.5, it's actually a wash, the part your missing is that the Heat simply don't miss many shots, so there isn't as many rebound opportunity. Bosh still has a considerable better defensive rebound percentage . Bosh's fall last 3 year came almost entirely on the offensive end, which is both as a result of team's system and also the simple fact that the Heat don't miss shots. They had a .496 FG% last year, the next closet teams were at .481.

 

 

Now, there may be that Aldridge's best seasons are still ahead of him, but my concerns remains valid that his main ability is score and he won't be able to do that much if he's the 3rd option on a team. and he doesn't bring a ton of things elsewhere.

 

We can look at AST% to see the same conclusion, AKA, Bosh was better (but not by much.) in Toronto, you know, when they were similar in age and role.  yes Miami has great ball movement but how plays are designed influence how players get assist to a considerable degree as well. Nobody doubles Bosh these days, not because he's worse, but simply because there's a guy that need it so much more. as a result, he ends upon on the other end of the play much more often.  his % of shots assisted shot up by almost 20% from his peak Toronto years.

 

The conclusions are the same, if you have LMA together with Harden / Howard, unless this means Howard's willing to be 3rd fiddle (i DOUBT it strongly . especially not to LMA.)  LMA is going to end up with 4-5 less shots per game, maybe he'll increase in effeciency a bit to make up a little, but he'll lose 3-4 points of scoring none the less in the best case scenario, and more likely 5-6. 

 

now , even if we assume he rebounds the same (which can be doubtful, because Howard is going to suck up a lot of it and Houston probably won't miss too many shots either.) your looking at a 16/9 guy most likely.  is that worth 14 mil? ......... maybe I guess, but if it falls further and it's like 15/7, then it's a lot more suspect.

 

And at the end of the day, I don't see why Portland would either bother considering at this point unless the deal totally blows them away (like us including Parsons.)  which in turn don't make any sense for us.

[rockets best fan]

Bosh and Aldridge are very comparable in fact I'd rather have bosh, you can say he no shows sometimes and he has help and whatever but bosh still has all star ability and was good defensively in the playoffs. He gets pushed around by big centers however he shouldn't have be guarding those guys in the first place and Aldrige does get pushed around by big centers too. Bosh wasn't just hot in the playoffs he shot well over 50% from midrange all season. Aldrige has more assists because the offense is run through him and in Miami bosh usually doesn't touch the ball till the end of the shot clock where he takes a shot. Both as number 1 options have made the playoffs twice putting up similar numbers bosh had a 18-9 and 24-9 series Aldrige with 19-6 and 21-7 In first round exits for both.

true Bosh and Aldridge are comparable, but I would still take LMA. Bosh has a nack for getting lost when he is on the floor with other stars. LMA may turn out to be the same, but I doubt it.

[Cooper]

I think LMA would be worse with 2 other stars but we probably will never find out since he's going to Chicago or maybe Cleveland.

[rockets best fan]

I think LMA would be worse with 2 other stars but we probably will never find out since he's going to Chicago or maybe Cleveland.

I doubt it.............I'll tell you why..........Chicago isn't going to move Noah or Rose...Portland doesn't want Deng, so what kind of package can they do? Cleveland will not kill their cap room before they see if Lebron wants a homecoming. who out there can put together a better package than us that LMA would be willing to go to? if we send them Asik, G-Smith and Lin plus a couple of draft picks who can beat that deal? if they don't like Lin (which I suspect) a third team can be brought in to accept Lin and send even more draft picks to Portland. I think that if Portland moves LMA we will be one of the front runners

[Cooper]

Asik smith and Lin plus some picks that will be at least 20+ range isn't anything Special. What are they really getting with that? Smith is a replacement level backup, they have lillard and McCollum on rookie contracts they don't need/want an 8millon dollar 3rd pg that's crazy. So they get a good center and the right to overpay Lin at 3rd pg and a mediocre pf for their all star pf? Why is that in anyway a good deal? Anyone could match that in a trade.
The cavs can't put all their eggs in the lebron basket (have before and look where itngot them) a slight chance at lebron won't be enough to stop them from for sure adding another all star and showing Irving they are in to win. Their goal is to be a playoff team this year lebron can't help them do that but a trade for LMA would.

[rockets best fan]

Asik smith and Lin plus some picks that will be at least 20+ range isn't anything Special. What are they really getting with that? Smith is a replacement level backup, they have lillard and McCollum on rookie contracts they don't need/want an 8millon dollar 3rd pg that's crazy. So they get a good center and the right to overpay Lin at 3rd pg and a mediocre pf for their all star pf? Why is that in anyway a good deal? Anyone could match that in a trade.
The cavs can't put all their eggs in the lebron basket (have before and look where itngot them) a slight chance at lebron won't be enough to stop them from for sure adding another all star and showing Irving they are in to win. Their goal is to be a playoff team this year lebron can't help them do that but a trade for LMA would.

first before I even get into Lin and g-smith...........there are about what? at least 15 teams that would love to get their hands on asik so maybe you are undervaluing him, but defensive anchor rebounding big men are hard to find therefore are a prized commodity. every team knows you rarely get back true value when trading a star. asik is no piece of garbage....he is a top 7 ( top 5 to me) center in the league. now for g-smith and Lin. g-smith does have limitations, but is still a good prospect. the only place I agree with you is they may not want Lin, but he to is not without value to teams like Detroit or Utah........move him to a third team netting Portland more draft picks. true the picks we give them will be in the twenties, but any pick that can be picked up in next years loaded draft has to be considered a plus. lets assume Lin goes to a third team and nets a protected first rounder..........that means Portland would be getting 3 first rounders plus asik and g-smith for LMA. so explain how many teams are able to match that.

[Rockets fan newton]

first before I even get into Lin and g-smith...........there are about what? at least 15 teams that would love to get their hands on asik so maybe you are undervaluing him, but defensive anchor rebounding big men are hard to find therefore are a prized commodity. every team knows you rarely get back true value when trading a star. asik is no piece of garbage....he is a top 7 ( top 5 to me) center in the league. now for g-smith and Lin. g-smith does have limitations, but is still a good prospect. the only place I agree with you is they may not want Lin, but he to is not without value to teams like Detroit or Utah........move him to a third team netting Portland more draft picks. true the picks we give them will be in the twenties, but any pick that can be picked up in next years loaded draft has to be considered a plus. lets assume Lin goes to a third team and nets a protected first rounder..........that means Portland would be getting 3 first rounders plus asik and g-smith for LMA. so explain how many teams are able to match that.

None..and i would use Tjones or Dmo instead of Smith if i had to just to get it done..also we can get more then a first round I believe for Lin..I'm think a first and a good scorer off the bench we could use or give to porland

[thejohnnygold]

What do they do with Robin Lopez?

[rockets best fan]

What do they do with Robin Lopez?

send him down the river without a paddle

[thejohnnygold]

Not likely.     When they got Lopez it threw a big wrench into any plans for Aldridge.  Similar problem in Minnesota with Pekovic and Rubio.  Our two best trade options (Lin and Asik) don't match up well with our two biggest trade targets' teams: Portland and Minnesota.

[Buckko]

Guys you do realize that getting aldrige would cripple this team.

 

With asik on the court we were a top 10 defense, when he was off we were 28th so that's why our defense average is so bad. However with D12 and we keep Asik we will have elite rim protection for full 48 minutes, along with Dwight's defense skills, T-jones as starter PF and being more defensive minded, all our young guys improving, and chandler hopefully becoming an good perimeter defender. We will have an elite 5 defense with a top 3 offense, that's not contender, it's champion.

 

Now what will we have to give up for LA asik, jones or demo, lin, future 1st rounders to reload with. For a overpriced 3rd option role player to do 16 & 9 because harden will take all the points and D12 will eat the rebounds along with his touches . The math doesn't add up, there would be too many scorers and not enough points. We would give up our elite defense in asik. Jones can get those 7-9 boards and the last thing we need is another defense liability scorer in LA. Then you say we need an elite stretch 4.

 

1. They don't have to be elite when D12, Harden, Lin, and Parsons are destroying the scoreboard. They just need to be able to hit a 3, rebound, get about 10-14pts, and provide defense AKA Terrence Jones.

2. Then demo hopefully can become a very poor man's Dirk and wreck 2nd units with his shooting, size, and post game while asik covers the defensive end.

 

In summary, sure getting LMA would get us a true Big 3, but also gut our team and give us a glorified role player. 

Edited by Buckko, 24 July 2013 - 04:29 PM.

[rockets best fan]

Not likely.     When they got Lopez it threw a big wrench into any plans for Aldridge.  Similar problem in Minnesota with Pekovic and Rubio.  Our two best trade options (Lin and Asik) don't match up well with our two biggest trade targets' teams: Portland and Minnesota.

disagree......lopez can be moved to PF. however whether he plays center or PF he won't be very good at either. there is a reason he got shipped from NO. besides none of that matters if LMA wants out

[timetodienow1234567]

To call LA a defense liability is just ignorant. He's not a rim protected like Ibaka but he has improved his defense to become above average.

[rockets best fan]

To call LA a defense liability is just ignorant. He's not a rim protected like Ibaka but he has improved his defense to become above average.

agree

[Buckko]

LA is nothing close to what asik provides on defense and if jones becomes an effective shot blocker than we just might have an additional SWAT team in houston. 

The cons of a LA trade still far outweigh the pros. LA is a scorer and we don't need more scorers, we need defense.