Yeah, I think it's pretty much agreed upon that the top 6 is OKC / SAS / HOU / LAC / MEM / GSW in some order and they'll make it barring some absurdly bad luck with injury.
As for the others, it's hard to rank them at this point, a lot of IFs and maybe, I'd generally rank them in this order though.
Den: home court advantage simply too large to miss the playoffs. unless their team is truly awful.)
Min: probably best colleciton of talent with good coach and already knows each other, question is can they defend? but don't need to to make it. might be a top 5 offense. feels similar to us last season in many sense.
Por : I know the bench was bad, but there is some other underlying issues there as well , like Lillard can't defend, LMA becoming ever more in love with his mid range game. etc.. I'm not sure, they're close, but I think they're a step below Min since they have all their problems but a lower ceiling of talents.
Noh: if they make it, it will be because Davis take another significant step forward, if Davis reaches near super star territory then they can plausibly get over the hump, but if not, their backcourt has major disappointment written all over it.
Mav: this is hard to rank since I figure they have to get a center somewhere / somehow. and that'll change things, and if that center is adequate then they're actually in a fine spot, since Dirk + Calderon + Ellis is actually very strong offensively, and they're vetty enough to play really savvy team defense. but without one they're in huge trouble. comeon, anything, Cole Aldrich / Hasheem Tabheet even.
LAL: this depends a lot on when Kobe comes back and how he looks, if he keep defying medical logic then LAL will push to the top of this group, if he doesn't then they're probably the worst of this group.
I'm in full agreement with RollingWave about the likely top 6 in the West this upcoming season (barring major health issues, of course).
After that, I think it's pretty wide open at the start of the season. It's kind of hard to count out Kobe and the Lakers making it, especially if Kobe rejoins the Lakers much sooner than later. I like what Minnesota is doing assuming they eventually re-sign Pekovic. I'm not so certain about Denver with all the turnover with their coaches and front office and losing Iguodola is huge. Lots of up and coming teams could challenge for one of the likely remaining playoff slots include Portland and New Orleans, and to a lesser extent, Sacramento. And it would be unwise to count out Dirk and the Mavericks.
Thankfully, the Rockets won't be battling for their playoff lives as they have had to for the last 4 consecutive seasons (8th seed last season and the best team not to make the playoffs for 3 consecutive years prior to last season). Instead, if things go as expected it will be fun to sit back and watch the Lakers, Mavs, Portland, Minnesota, Denver et al battle it out for one of the final 2 playoff slots!! Nothing would be finer than a Rockets-Lakers matchup in the first round!
All in the game, yo, 
