80 replies to this topic

[Mario Peña]

Call me crazy, I don't think Prokorov cares about paying the owners of NBA teams a few million bucks each to get to the second round or the Eastern Conference Finals. Seventy million is pocket change to some people.

[thejohnnygold]

Wow--check out this roster and salary:

I assume we're looking at a starting 5 of D-Will, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez.  Second unit: Livingston, Terry, AK-47, Evans, and Blatche.

 

That's not a bad set of reserves.  Terry and AK are capable of providing scoring and Evans and Blatche can hold down the paint....not sure about some of the names on that roster...Teletovic?  Shengalia?

 

$101M dollars--plus the luxury tax...wow!  If they can stay healthy they are legitimate contenders.  I think Garnett might be the piece that makes their offense click--going from Evans and Humphries to KG (even old KG) is a significant upgrade and his mid-range shooting will make the whole thing work.

[timetodienow1234567]

AK needs to start. Helps defense and gives them a Ginobili type in the second unit.

[Johnny Rocket]

On the Nets--I'm not sold on the idea that they are a true contender.  They'll win games, yes, but I don't see them having the chemistry or consistent defense to challenge the Heat and the Pacers.

 

Dallas has apparently signed Monta Ellis for big money.  As I understand their roster, they have three expensive free-agent guards who won't play defense, two rookie point guards, and three aging veterans (Marion, Carter, Dirk).  It seems like an utter disaster.

[thejohnnygold]

I think there is a good chance they end up signing Greg Oden.  I think Cuban will pay some wily inventor to make bionic knee braces, slap 'em on Greg's knees, and then they will actually be a decent squad.

 

An alternate theory is Cuban is embracing small-ball and will trot out this line-up and try to outscore people:

 

Calderon, Ellis, Carter, Marion, and Nowitzki....will make for an entertaining regular season and first round exit in the playoffs.

[Mario Peña]

I don't think they could make the playoffs.

[thejohnnygold]

OKC, SA, HOU, GSW, LAC, POR, MEM....I'm not sold on Minnesota or Denver.  I think the 8th seed is up for grabs.

[timetodienow1234567]

Denver got worse. Faried has zero shot. Mcgee is probably going to be the starter. I don't know if they make the playoffs. If Minny is healthy, they will make the playoffs. I'm not sold on Portland. Lillard is in for the sophomore slump and Robin Lopez is not a legit starter. So the 7th and 8th seeds are up for grabs in my mind.

[Mario Peña]

I think Minnesota (the health factor), Denver (their home record advantage factor), New Orleans (good young team factor), the Lakers (the Kobe factor) and Portland are all better than Dallas which I am guessing might have chemistry problems. Just conjecture of course.

[vnmslsrbms]

Plus Dallas doesn't even have a center.  Portland is shaky though, but at least got Robin Lopez as their center.  

[RollingWave]

Yeah, I think it's pretty much agreed upon that the top 6 is OKC / SAS / HOU / LAC / MEM / GSW in some order and they'll make it barring some absurdly bad luck with injury.

 

As for the others, it's hard to rank them at this point, a lot of IFs and maybe,  I'd generally rank them in this order though.

 

Den: home court advantage simply too large to miss the playoffs. unless their team is truly awful.)

 

Min: probably best colleciton of talent with good coach and already knows each other, question is can they defend? but don't need to to make it. might be a top 5 offense. feels similar to us last season in many sense.

 

Por : I know the bench was bad, but there is some other underlying issues there as well , like Lillard can't defend, LMA becoming ever more in love with his mid range game. etc..  I'm not sure, they're close, but I think they're a step below Min since they have all their problems but a lower ceiling of talents.

 

Noh: if they make it, it will be because Davis take another significant step forward, if Davis reaches near super star territory then they can plausibly get over the hump, but if not, their backcourt has major disappointment written all over it.

 

Mav: this is hard to rank since I figure they have to get a center somewhere / somehow.  and that'll change things, and if that center is adequate then they're actually in a fine spot, since Dirk + Calderon + Ellis is actually very strong offensively, and they're vetty enough to play really savvy team defense.  but without one they're in huge trouble. comeon, anything, Cole Aldrich / Hasheem Tabheet even.

 

LAL: this depends a lot on when Kobe comes back and how he looks, if he keep defying medical logic then LAL will push to the top of this group, if he doesn't then they're probably the worst of this group.

[RollingWave]

As for the Nets.... ehhh, I suppose in theory they could win, they match up well against the heat... IN THEORY.  the problem is how will that roster look by the playoffs? who's going to be on the DL by then? it's not unimaginable that they can beat the Heat because any team with a strong frontline and the Nets in theory have enough good pieces on the wing / guard to also keep up.

 

Also, Atlanta matched Teague, this is gonna get awkward for the Bucks and Hawks with RFA PG back that felt like they weren't wanted.

 

I actually really like what the Hawks are doing though, they're kinda running our theory, making a lot of nice value signings, not punting seasons but also with a strong eye set towards the future. it's going to be hard for them to break into a high ceiling than the Josh Smith era, but as Morey shown, it can be done. I'd say barring major injury they're a 6-7th seed again. despite letting their best player walk.

Edited by RollingWave, 14 July 2013 - 12:16 AM.

[timetodienow1234567]

Yeah, Atlantas kind of stupid. Why alienate your PG just to re-sign him? Maybe they think they can trade him at the deadline? Seems like a dumb move by Ferry.

[RollingWave]

Yeah, Atlantas kind of stupid. Why alienate your PG just to re-sign him? Maybe they think they can trade him at the deadline? Seems like a dumb move by Ferry.

 

from a pure business POV it was smart, because if he just went to Teague and presented the 4/32 Teague will probably think that's underselling him (remember Jennings, a similar and in many ways worse player, is out asking for 11/12 per.)  and the situaiton is similar, the only way to NOT alienate him would have been to overpay him.

 

So he lets him out on the market and he gets a .... MARKET VALUE OFFER (shocker) . and they matched. sound business decision, and like I pointed out above, it was kinda hard not to alienate him without overpaying him.

 

As for pissing him off, ehhh, they'll live with it, their plan is probably to hand the job to Dennis Schroder in a few years anyway, I totally don't expect Teague to finish that contract on Atlanta. and by not overpaying him he's much more tradable.

[rocketrick]

With regards to OKC I wonder where all the Presti believers on this board are. That Harden trade has to be one of the worst trades in NBA history. The Jeff Green trade also gets worse by the year, he should have had patience in finding a big who could defend.

Yeah, I agree for the most part. However, the Thunder having Perkins to battle D12 could make that trade with the Celtics for Green more palatable going forward. I hope Jeremy Lamb succeeds, but I just don't see him filling the void of Harden/Martin for the Thunder next season. May not matter, they got that Reggie Jackson kid who can fill it up and I predict will be their valued 6th man next season.

[Rahat Huq]

Worst offseasons:

 

1. Dallas

2. Milwaukee

3. LA Lakers 

 

Best:

 

1. Houston

2. Pelicans

3. Clippers

4. Golden State

5. 76ers

 

(I think adding Reddick and Dudley is so, so, so underrated.)  

[Steven]

Worst offseasons:

1. Dallas
2. Milwaukee
3. LA Lakers

Best:

1. Houston
2. Pelicans
3. Clippers
4. Golden State
5. 76ers

(I think adding Reddick and Dudley is so, so, so underrated.)

I think adding them is so so so overrated. They can't get their own shot, and neither big man for the Clippers are skilled offensively so you don't have to double them, so they won't get the space required to knock down the threes.

[Johnny Rocket]

I agree with Rahat that Reddick and Dudley will help the Clips a lot.  A huge upgrade over Bulter/Billups.  They will get plenty of open looks when defenses collapse to stop Paul's penetration.

 

I'm down on the Pelicans. Lopez is an underrated center that they will really miss, and Davis will be asked to do too much defensively.  I see Pelicans and Timberwolves as having potentially potent offensives but without the ability to stop good teams and with no obvious ways of getting better.

[RollingWave]

I think adding them is so so so overrated. They can't get their own shot, and neither big man for the Clippers are skilled offensively so you don't have to double them, so they won't get the space required to knock down the threes.

 

That doesn't matter, because you'll always have to double / cover Chris Paul . offensively they're well set, the real problem is that DeAndre Jordan is basically a rich man's Greg Smith, and maybe not even by that much of a margin. their frontline defense, if it doesn't improve, will never be good enough to get out of the 2nd round. but, they are young enough that it could happen. though then we're back to the whole part of Paul had a frontline  of Tyson Chandler + David West, it doesn't get much better than that, and he STILL didn't get out of the 2nd round.

 

I agree with Rahat that Reddick and Dudley will help the Clips a lot.  A huge upgrade over Bulter/Billups.  They will get plenty of open looks when defenses collapse to stop Paul's penetration.

 

I'm down on the Pelicans. Lopez is an underrated center that they will really miss, and Davis will be asked to do too much defensively.  I see Pelicans and Timberwolves as having potentially potent offensives but without the ability to stop good teams and with no obvious ways of getting better.

 

It's the other way around, they'll defend just fine,  Davis / Holiday / Evans are all good defenders and their system is very slowed down, so despite a horrific DrTG last year (28 out of 30) they actually were only 14 out of 30 in actual points given up per game despite having a plodding C , a  rookie, a 6th man that can't defend anyone (Anderson) , and a back court that might have been worse than Kobe + Nash defensively .   their current set of talent is a considerable improvement . (granted, starting Anderson full time might be a serious problem.) . I think they'll be top 10 in terms of actual points given up per game.

 

The real problem is offense, Holiday ran what was essentially the worst offense in the league,  yeah , he didn't have much help, but  the same could be said for plenty of other teams that did better.  Evans hasn't been much of an true offensive threat since his rookie year (though he did bounce back from two horrible season last year.) .  Eric Gordon flashed some signs of brilliance 3  years ago and haven't been healthy much since.  Ryan Anderson since leaving the Magic have been exposed as really just a good role player and not some analytic super star etc..

 

They have a lot of random moving parts there, maybe they'll figure it out, the maximum talent ceiling is probably comparable to Portland / Min, but the moving parts scares me. doubt they'll figure it out in just 1 year.

[Johnny Rocket]

I agree with Holiday is a fine defender.  I had no idea about Evans--I figured if he learned to play defense in Sacramento that he must be a poor defender, but perhaps that's just prejudice on my part.  Davis will get pushed around a bit at center, and will take a while to develop the instincts to be an excellent help defender.  With Ryan as the second big, I don't see them stopping any of the elite teams in the West.  They will be fighting for the 7-8 seed until Davis develops into a real star, but who knows if and when that will happen.