Recall from Part 1 that Houston’s most used lineup of Ariza/Beverley/Harden/Howard/Motiejunas was a +11 in 295 minutes played. This came as a huge surprise because even after he returned, Motiejunas still wasn’t at full form this year. I’m wondering if the year would have gone differently had he simply been healthy from the start. By contrast, the lineup of Ariza/Beverley/Harden/Howard/Jones, with Terrence Jones being in Motiejunas’ place, was -20.8 in 92 minutes played. I’ve argued for a few years now about the superiority of Motiejunas over Jones, but even I didn’t realize how drastic the drop-off was.
Houston’s best five-man lineup this year featured Ariza/Beverley/Brewer/Capela/Harden, posting a +28.1 net rating in 74 minutes played. Last year, the team’s best quintet was Ariza/Brewer/Howard/Prigioni/Smith, which posted a +40.0 in just over 41 minutes of play. I’m as surprised as you are that Brewer made his way into the most effective five-man this season.
Houston’s second most used lineup of Ariza/Beverley/Brewer/Harden/Howard posted a -6.4 in 201 minutes shared. That’s a pretty big drop-off from the most used quintet.
The lineup of Ariza/Beverley/Capela/Harden/Howard, the ‘Twin Towers’ starting lineup Bickerstaff flirted with for a stretch, posted a +9.7 in 196 minutes together. Maybe they pulled the plug on that too soon? However, plug Josh Smith in for Capela, and in 109 minutes, that quintet was a +7.9. What gives? Most of the Rockets’ most heavily used starting lineups had very positive net productivity. Even the quintet of Ariza/Harden/Howard/Lawson/Thornton was +6.2 in 80 minutes.
Here are Houston’s worst high-minute quintets from this year:
- Ariza/Beasley/Capela/Harden/Terry: -34.9 in 31 minutes.
- Brewer/Capela/Jones/Lawson/Thornton: -28.8 in 43 minutes.
- Ariza/Capela/Harden/Jones/Terry: -25.6 in 45 minutes.
- Ariza/Beasley/Beverley/Harden/Howard: -25.2 in 69 minutes.
- Ariza/Beverley/Harden/Howard/Jones: -20.8 in 92 minutes.
James Harden and Dwight Howard together this year were a +2.8 in 1863 minutes shared. The superstar duo last year was +10.9 in 950 minutes shared. Houston’s most used duo last year was the wing duo of Ariza and Harden. Those two shared the court last year for 2284 minutes with a +4.9 net rating. This year, Ariza and Harden were again the most used duo, sharing the floor for 2603 minutes, and posting a +2.2. Corey Brewer and Trevor Ariza posted a +3.3 in 677 minutes together last year; Brewer and Ariza this year were a -0.5 in 734 minutes.
Houston’s five best units were lineups that featured just Capela, or just Howard, with four small players, or Capela and Howard together. The common denominator in all eight of Houston’s worst heavy-minute quintets was either Terrence Jones or Michael Beasley.
I don’t know what to make of all of this. The biggest surprise to me was how well certain starting lineups fared overall. I was of the impression that the team had just struggled consistently from the top down. It seems like Houston’s downfall this year, based on the lineup data, was the inconsistent power forward play and bench production.