On the NBA: Statistical Responsibility

Q: When can we expect Moneyball 2: Moreyball?

A: this would be a terrible movie. that said, we did have a 22 game winning streak and apparently a long winning streak is all you need for a movie. 

- Daryl Morey, during a Reddit AMA chat.

Coverage of the NBA in the modern age is dominated by statistics. Where the dominating monolith of the box score once stood, now there are a myriad of useful and interesting methods for analyzing basketball, in scopes from the play of an individual player in a specific play type to the historical strategic choices of the league as a whole across time. This is a tremendous boon to anyone who wants to talk about the game: come up with an argument, and you can go away and find the numbers that prove or disprove it. But it’s not all good news. 47% of statistics are made up. Lies, damn lies and statistics! You know the clichés. The more information there is, the more it can be twisted to greater accentuate your argument or to be downright misleading.  There is an excellent example doing the rounds at the moment, and it has been driving me nuts to the extent that I felt like writing a blog post about it: The Heat are 45-3 in their last 48. How can we expect them to lose four in a row to anybody?  Read More »

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Grading Carlos Delfino

Carlos Delfino joined the 2012-2013 Houston Rockets as the quintessential Morey acquisition. Daryl Morey, general manager and analytics hero, loves to find overlooked bargain, mis-estimated players, and market inequalities. Morey saw Delfino, appraised his worth, then signed him to team-friendly contract. How did that work out? Delfino was a useful player for the Rockets, was worth his contract, and is likely to be let go for the long-term good of the team. Just as expected. Read More »

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On the NBA: Who’s Left, Who’s Gone

The Spurs have punched the Grizzlies in the mouth. Tony Parker got whatever he wanted in game one, and what he wanted was easy lay-ups, and an endless army of open three-point shooters. The Spurs, of course, have done this before. Long regarded as one the most strategically prepared teams in the league, Popovich and company exploited some of Memphis’ illusory weaknesses. But the problem for San Antonio is that the Grizzlies, too, have done this before. They lost the first game in both of their last two rounds, and then proved themselves to be excellent at adjusting, and slowly forcing games toward their will. Game one was an aberration—this is going to be a long, great series—and Memphis just better hope it isn’t the difference between going to Miami, and going home.

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Get Ready For Another Summer of Dwight

It’s almost June, so that means it’s time for Dwight Howard to take over as the NBA’s prime story. Everyone knew that the Houston Rockets were gearing to make a big splash this offseason, but the Dwight Howard rumors just got cranked to full volume. In a complete reversal of narrative from last summer, when sources claimed Howard would absolutely not sign with Houston, we’re now swimming in reports that he’s very interested in what the Rockets have to offer. Gird whatever you may have to gird; the Rockets are about to be at the center of the chaos. Read More »

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Grading Chandler Parsons

Chandler Parsons wasn’t Houston’s flashiest player, or Houston’s best player, or even Houston’s most famous player. Parsons wasn’t the primary scorer, or the defensive anchor, or the team’s distributor. Despite all that, Chandler Parsons was something even more important. Chandler Parsons, despite being only a sophomore in the NBA, managed to become the soul of the brand new Houston Rockets. Read More »

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