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]]> So much has transpired in the last 24 hours that I am just now really completely gathering my thoughts. You can read the entire Dwight Howard Free Agency series here if you want to relive the agony and subsequent glory.I was laying in bed late last night with Sportscenter on, Dwight on the screen, thinking back to the early days of Red94. The days of the team chasing around everyone under the sun with an Ipad–from Chris Bosh to Chris Paul, to even Dwight himself–and repeatedly getting rejected. To be here now – it feels good, man. The Rockets now have one of the most enviable duos in basketball, both players in their prime, locked up for the foreseeable future. This is really a chance at redemption; a chance to overcome the demons haunting the franchise in the aftermath of the respective careers of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming – a chance to live what we thought could have been, for that reviled, tantalizing duo.
I think back to the days when the likes of Kyle Lowry and Chuck Hayes were this team’s best players – lunch pail guys who sweated tears and blood but who weren’t enough to lift us from mediocrity. It seemed hopeless but Daryl Morey stuck with his plan and executed. It’s astonishing really, and probably still isn’t properly appreciated or understood in the general public. It’s 2013 and we’re just four years removed from the shambles of our last contending team and back again on a path to contention without having suffered a losing season in between. It feels good, man.
There are some in the local media, even celebrating now, who sh*tted on Morey and his staffers every step of the way, from the trite laptop jokes to other basic misunderstandings of smart management and process analytics. They owe an apology. Oh, it’ll be said now that the calls for a parade are premature, that nothing yet has been won and that the games have yet to be played. Morey and his staff have already won – in assembling this core, he did the most that could be asked of any general manager. Now it’s on the players and coach to bring the results, on the court.
This wasn’t just luck – this was the execution of a plan that’s been in motion from the start when it first seemed that Yao Ming would never be the same again. Yes, there are those in the print and on the airwaves who mocked Morey every step of the way. They failed to understand asset arbitrage and the importance of flipping players to accumulate value. That’s how Rafer Alston led to Kyle Lowry who ultimately led to James Harden. They failed to understand why marginal players were let go or weren’t re-signed at exorbitant costs or why the market always was allowed to set price rather than industry customs of ‘goodwill’ (i.e. see the Rockets’ long standing policy of not tendering extensions). The critics snickered, right here in Houston, writing and saying that “flexibility doesn’t win championships.” Now they see what flexibility does. The Dwight Howard signing wasn’t luck. It was the summit of a plan in motion for years to create value and create the space necessary to absorb a max free agent. The plan finally paid off.
Now the Rockets turn towards filling in the pieces around their frightening new duo. This is what Yao and McGrady didn’t have. I’ve lost count of the number of times over the years that I’ve said “if only Morey had been the GM during the Yao/Mac prime rather than Dawson.” Yao and McGrady wasted away their few spurts of health flanked by the likes of Ryan Bowen and Luther Head; these Rockets already have Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik (who can be swapped for value) as their 3rd and 4th best players. For years, Morey proved his magnificence at uncovering hidden gems, time and time again, from Carl Landry, to Kyle Lowry, to Shane Battier, to Chandler Parsons, to Patrick Beverley. Repeatedly, he stitched winning squads together on a shoe-string budget. If only he could acquire stars, we thought, there’d be no question of whether he could surround them. Now Morey has the stars.
I’ve seen many comments, from the national side or from the more casual, local fan, wondering how Houston can fill out its roster. Those people haven’t been watching closely. To those of us following, that’s the least of our worries right now. The Rockets, under Morey, will always be able to find quality role players on the cheap. That’s his specialty.
Rumors broke yesterday, shortly after the trade, that the Rockets were exploring deals for Josh Smith and Ryan Anderson (not in combination.) Those were also refuted and there was also a report that Omer Asik had requested a trade. The truth is unclear. We’ve debated the merits of a Smith acquisition, to the point of exhaustion. In terms of ‘fit’, Anderson is probably one of the very best in the league for a team featuring Dwight Howard. But after thinking it over, I don’t think now is the time for ‘fit.’ Acquiring Josh Smith could be near disastrous – he won’t space the floor and his questionable decision-making can bog down an entire offense. But his talents on the defensive end (ESPN’s Kevin Pelton rated him through statistical measures as the league’s very best perimeter defender) and in the open court are undeniable. Now in contention, I want the Rockets to acquire the very best talent. If it doesn’t work out in the end, I can live with that. But after seeing the Yao and McGrady years–after seeing the record setting playoff Game 4 in 2007 when only 4 Rockets scored–I don’t want to worry about fit. I don’t want to ever again lose by feeling we didn’t have enough talent or were overmatched. If we lose because our players didn’t mesh, that’s something I can live with.
Getting Smith would give the Rockets a lineup versatile enough to match up with the Thunder and Heat and a defender to match up with those teams’ best players. It would give the Rockets an extra rim protector to help out Howard. The potential problems on offense are undeniable. But if that’s how we lose, I can live with it.
Right now, it remains to be seen if Smith can be acquired. If traded for just Asik, Smith could only be signed to a deal within a percentage above Asik’s $8.3million salary (coming out to roughly $12million.) The problem here is that Smith may be asking for far more than that. Atlanta also just signed Paul Millsap.
If Houston can’t get Smith, I’d prefer they simply hold onto Asik for the time being, despite his alleged protests. His value would seem far too high to just jettison hastily.
The other question is Jeremy Lin, the mercurial talent who, in some odd sense has actually become underrated amongst the Rockets faithful. Perhaps no one on this roster would benefit more from Howard’s presence than Lin as the second year guard, like Harden, specializes in attacking off the pick and roll. But now with aspirations of contention, rather than of mere relevance, is Lin the right man to steer this ship? It’s well documented that he struggles against on-ball pressure (see: the Miami game his rookie year, or last year’s playoffs) and that’s not exactly a weakness from your point guard you can overcome. But on the other hand, the same principle–like with Smith–applies. With what’s available now, Lin is the highest upside option available. It’s not smart to downgrade talent. At still just 24, his ability to attack and create problems for opposing defenses is unquestionable, even by his staunchest detractors. And its undeniable that his shooting accuracy drastically improved as the season progressed. Lin may be a shaky hand but in today’s day and age, you need weapons everywhere. And Lin, for his flaws, is a weapon.
In the coming weeks, Daryl Morey will fill out his roster. He’s already dealt away Royce White, the face for how not to go about bringing awareness for a cause. (That a deal could be struck is fortunate because had White needed to be waived, the team almost certainly would have needed to expend resources in litigating a frivolous ADA claim.) Morey will make decisions on Asik and Lin and fill out other holes on the cheap. But for now, he has his man. Last year, Morey got the first domino. Now it’s complete. With Dwight Howard, the Rockets’ foundation is set.
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]]> I am literally exhausted. About an hour or so ago, after the celebrations had begun, news broke that apparently Howard had actually not decided and was still 50/50 on his decision. After some panic, just a few minutes ago, it was reported that Howard has officially committed to Houston. I’m going to bed.Dwight Howard has called Houston GM Daryl Morey to tell him he's joining the Rockets, team source tells Y!
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) July 6, 2013
Boom @Lakers: GM Mitch Kupchak: http://t.co/o87QwX7jyt "We have been informed of Dwight's decision to not return to the Lakers."
— AP Sports (@AP_Sports) July 6, 2013
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]]> First, I want to apologize. As has been the case during the most critical of moments, Red94 has been down throughout the day.Secondly, if you’re reading this, and just heard of the news on your own, without actually following it live on Twitter….well then, I envy you. I cannot even begin to articulate how bizarre and draining the past few hours have been.
If you’re just now dropping in, first read my previous installment on the earlier part of this afternoon when things first hit the fan after the Warriors managed to sign Andre Iguodala.
Look at what then transpired, with my corresponding thoughts:
The Final Chapter of Dwightmare
At one point in there, Wojnarowski, indisputably the most credible reporter right now in the business, had tweeted that the Iguodala signing had taken the Warriors out of the running, leaving only the Rockets in the Howard sweepstakes. He shortly recanted, leaving my blood pressure at untenable levels.
Just an absolute rollercoaster from Sam Amick first breaking the news, to others confirming, to Wojnarowski then disputing the prior reports, to then even Daryl Morey himself tweeting that he had not been given a final indication. Finally, ESPN reported, via Chris Broussard, that the Lakers had been notified that Howard would not return. Absolutely exhausting to experience, live.
As I type, the Rockets have now just traded Royce White to Philadelphia and are currently exploring deals for center Omer Asik as they construct their new team. I’ll have more thoughts on the significance of the Howard acquisition in the coming hours.
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]]> You have to just follow me on Twitter at this point because things are moving too fast for static pages such as these to serve any utility.To recap, basically the s*** hit the fan in the last hour with first, a tweet from a reporter from the OC register alleging that Howard would announce his decision via Twitter later in the day. She then retracted that report a few minutes later, after half of the Internet had cited it.
Then Marc Stein said Houston was the frontrunner.
Then the Utah Jazz, inexplicably agreed to take back the contracts of Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins, apparently getting nothing of any value in return, leaving me to wonder if compromising photos were involved. The Warriors then followed up that move by agreeing to terms with Andre Iguodala. Shortly thereafter, Adrian Wojnarowski, widely regarded as the most reliable source in the business, tweeted that the signing put Denver out of the Howard race. Rocket fan rejoiced while I warned that a S&T could still be possible. Wojnarowski then, shortly after, recanted his statement, saying the Warriors “had tentacles everywhere.”
And that’s where we stand, unless something has changed while I’ve been typing this. Howard’s camp has yet to say anything. The Rockets sit, with their team in tow, and the ability to offer a better financial situation than Golden State (due to the lack of state income tax in Texas.) The Warriors, on the other hand, can now offer Andrew Bogut and either of (or both of) Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson in a S&T to the Lakers for Howard.
For Howard now, it may just come down to a choice between a team featuring himself, Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, and David Lee vs. himself, Lin, Harden, Parsons, and childhood friend Josh Smith. I don’t know about you, but the former option seems better. The one thing Houston can really tip its hat upon is that Golden State is the worst financial option for Howard.
What I personally am wondering right now is why Golden State would move to sign Iguodala so quickly, taking themselves out of the chance to sign Howard outright. That makes me think they’ve heard nothing. On the other hand, it could just mean that they have a sense that Howard signing could be contingent upon an Iguodala acquisition.
In the end, it comes down to a) what Howard wants and b) whether the Lakers will be willing to cooperate (with the Warriors.)
Again, if you’re not following me on Twitter, just do that, because this thing is simply moving too fast for a blog. I envy those of you who haven’t been trying to follow this thing today.
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]]>Three rival execs told ESPN tonight they think that Warriors ARE capable of trading Bogut, Jefferson and Biedrins if LA won't sign-and-trade
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) July 5, 2013
Follow me on Twitter where I’m able to provide much more frequent commentary on these developments.
I thought we’d hear something final by last night, but I was wrong. The big story from yesterday pertained to ongoing reports of a Warriors late push to shed the money necessary to sign Howard outright so that they wouldn’t need the Lakers to participate in a sign&trade. This led many to speculate that perhaps the Warriors had received word of Howard’s preference. Pretty late in the night, Marc Stein reported that a) some rival executives believe that the Warriors will be capable of clearing the necessary cap space and b) the Lakers have become open to S&T possibilities.
First, there’s no need to panic. None of the reports indicate that Howard yet has shown any preference. This most likely is just a push by the Warriors to even give themselves a shot at this thing. Secondly, to sign Howard outright, the Warriors would have to unload the salaries of Andrew Bogut, Andris Biedrins, and Richard Jefferson. While they’re all expiring, if this was a feasible task, don’t you think it would have been accomplished already, earlier in the summer? The Warriors knew they’d be pursuing Howard. I’d go so far as to say that making this happen would be close to impossible especially given the duress circumstances in which the Warriors find themselves. (This shows the importance of planning, years in advance. Things would sure be easier for Golden State had they not wasted their one-time amnesty provision on Charlie Bell.)
The real threat is the fact that the Lakers reportedly might be amenable to sign&trades. The question though is how much are the Warriors willing to give up to make this happen. I saw a report that the Lakers would only consider Thompson AND Barnes, but who knows if that’s credible. If it’s just one of those two players, obviously the Warriors jump. And then the question becomes whether some package surrounding Asik and/or Lin is preferable, especially given the ’14 consequences. This whole thing is a mess but the important thing to keep in mind is that none of these reports pertain to any indication given from Howard. It’s just the teams themselves bracing for the possibilities.
Next, I truly wonder if Dwight Howard understands that to get him, the Warriors would have to give up a major piece of their rotation. This goes back to that fiduciary duty theme I’ve been writing about. And you laugh when I say that, thinking, “come on, he’s not that dumb” but it’s completely possible. I think back to some years ago when Tracy McGrady was being interviewed about his time in Orlando on some Houston radio station. The host was asking him about his time with the Magic and he said something along the lines of, “they never gave me any help while I was there but then the year I left they went out and got Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley.” Huh? Yeah. Some of these players are that out of touch and from the reports, I’m not completely sure that they’re getting the best advice from those who are supposed to be acting in positions of trust. But I’ll digress. I’m not going to bore you with legal ethics when you’re already about to lose it from anxiety.
We’re most likely going to hear a decision by sometime today. Remember, while the Lakers very well may now be willing to engage in sign&trade talks, this comes down to Howard himself. Where does he want to go? If he wants to walk to Houston, he can go there outright. And the interesting thing is that Howard has kept his mouth shut, giving no signs. The big man has seemed to learn from the past, staying off Twitter and according himself professionally throughout this process. He very well may already have made up his mind a few days ago.
I won’t give a prediction but it seems the Lakers are out. Thank you, Kobe. If Howard wants the Warriors, I can’t fault him. We’ll just have to wait and see. I just hope he realizes it’s not that full squad (meaning all three of Curry, Barnes, and Thompson) whom he’ll be playing with.
Howard or not, the one thing I will predict is that regardless of what happens today, the Rockets will come to terms quickly with Josh Smith by the end of the weekend. I don’t know how I feel about that, but that’s a topic that’s already been beaten to death.
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]]>Sources close to Howard tell me Kobe's reported pitch in Tuesday's meeting about teaching D12 how to win will be a "complete turnoff" to D12
— Chris Broussard (@Chris_Broussard) July 4, 2013
What a shocker. Only in Kobe’s mind could that possibly have been a good idea…
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]]> Follow me on Twitter where I’m much better about updating throughout the day.Well, here we are – Part 11. Supposedly, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Howard’s decision could come this Friday. I’m still waiting for confirmation from Buster Olney.
In seriousness, if true, I wouldn’t at all be shocked if we got some sort of leak regarding the announcement by sometime today. If you’re Howard, you might want to bury the immediate maelstrom on a holiday and duck for cover. So have your Tweetdecks out and handy. There, I just ruined your 4th of July.
This is it. After nearly two full years of discussion surrounding Dwight Howard, we are going to have a decision likely by week’s end. By the time you all go back to work on Monday, this Rockets team may have become a title contender overnight. Boy am I going to be depressed if he heads elsewhere.
I think Golden State is out. The logistics would seem awkward and don’t seem to make much sense. He’ll be making his decision but then would have to get the Lakers to cooperate in a deal? Something like, “I’ve decided on the Warriors….uhh, by the way, would you mind giving me a hand?” That’d be really odd and I think we would have already heard wind of the machinations by now. To get to Golden State, Howard has to threaten to leave to Houston/Dallas outright first, to get the Lakers to play ball, and I think we would have already heard about those discussions by now from someone in one of the camps. But if he could somehow make it work, I wouldn’t fault him. Golden State, like Houston, is a great basketball situation with a rabid fanbase. He’d also be taking less money to play for a winner. (Remember that with the new S&T rules, a player cannot be signed and traded for the same amount as if he signed with his original team. Yet unlike Dallas/Houston, Howard would not benefit from Texas tax laws.)
If he remains with L.A., we’ll know he suffers from Stockholm, especially after what reportedly was said to him in the other day’s meeting by Kobe Bryant. I just don’t know how one can return to a team with a guy that point-blank accused him of faking an injury, publicly, showed no remorse, and then followed up with more patronizing in his final pitch. But hey, L.A.’s one hell of a place to live if you’re rich.
Dallas is a similar situation, like L.A., where if he signs on, he’ll waste yet another year of his precious prime. A colleague last year wrote a seminar paper on sports agents and fiduciary ethics and if Dan Fegan is able to successfully steer his client towards good friend Mark Cuban, that’ll be yet another prime case study into the topic. This is really a matter which isn’t discussed nearly enough in the media, but while it probably doesn’t have any social harm, the power held by some of the more prominent agents in brokering their clients against said clients’ pecuniary interests is something that really needs to be addressed by each of the three respective major sports leagues. But with pathetically weak players’ unions –which couldn’t crawl to begin with sans agency representation–and the league itself likely not giving a damn, fat chance on that ever happening.
Houston is hands down the best situation for Dwight Howard from any objective angle.
If he comes, he’ll be crucified, and I think that’s sad. What does he owe the Lakers? He’s a free agent who served the duration of his employment contract. It will be said that he left the team high and dry with nothing after they gave up so much to get him. False. The value the Lakers gave up to get Howard (Andrew Bynum) was adjusted with implicit recognition of the risk involved with respect to him leaving. In example, the Lakers only were able to get Howard to begin with because he had 1 year remaining on his deal. If there was no risk of Howard leaving, they couldn’t have gotten him for just Bynum. The risk was an inherent component of the value tendered in the deal.
But of course, if he leaves, all of that will be ignored and we’ll end up getting dumber from the discourse that ensues. That’s usually the case with these things.
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]]>Y! Sources: Kobe Bryant's message to Dwight Howard in Tuesday's meeting: Let me teach you how to be a champion. http://t.co/F8fXUcrnKp
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) July 3, 2013
First, if you aren’t following me on Twitter yet, please do so: @redninetyfour. While I don’t have the time to write longform here more than once a day, I think most would agree I am usually pretty good about sharing my thoughts over Twitter as news breaks throughout the day.
Next, the report above, in my opinion, was the news of the day. I’m not sure why I’m even surprised by this. What else would anyone expect from Bryant? The same narcissism that’s driven him towards greatness now could potentially be a superseding factor in pushing yet another Hall of Fame center out of town.
After Bryant spent a full season patronizing Howard, one wonders how he can possibly think that same strong-armed attitude would do anything but drive Howard away.
And if you’re Howard, after being marginalized, after being accused of faking an injury when actually playing hurt, now you are being sold to stay by being told you can only learn from Bryant how to win? How can you possibly find that appealing?
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]]>The one word Ive heard used a lot to describe Lakers mtgs with Dwight today: "honest."
— Ramona Shelburne (@ramonashelburne) July 3, 2013
I’m probably reading way too much into this, but I was expecting a much different tone coming out of the Lakers camp coming out of that meeting yesterday, rather than the subdued, somber reports we saw, like the one above.
Y!’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported late, late last night that:
The Rockets remain frontrunners for Howard, but Howard is still giving consideration to remaining with theLos Angeles Lakers, sources said.
”The Rockets have put themselves in position to pull this off,” one source with knowledge of Howard’s decision-making process said. “If he wants to win right now – and be set up to keep winning – it’s hard to make a case for anyone but Houston.”
For now, Howard reportedly has left Los Angeles for the outdoors to do some thinking. In my book, the more time that elapses between his decision and those meetings, the better. It gives him a chance to consider ration and reason and detach himself from the emotionally driven appeals to ‘guilt’, ‘loyalty’, and ‘legacy’ characterized by that Laker pitch.
What concerns me–and something unique to the sports world as a subset of the larger legal community–is the role of Howard’s representatives. It’s a theme you see play out over and over again in different free agencies: reports that X player’s agent is trying to steer X player towards Y team to serve agent’s own interests. That’s a clear breach of fiduciary duty.
A detached fiduciary, abiding by ethical norms, would consult his client: “well, remember Dwight: they may have just told you they can offer $30million more, but like we talked about last week…that’s a gross sum.”….”that’s a great endorsement package they just offered you, but remember, we can also find you deals from other cities.”….
Given what we know from the past, I don’t know if Dan Fegan is doing that. (Agents stand to bring home 2%-3% of the gross total from the transaction.) I don’t want to speculate, but let’s just say I hope Morey and co. really hammered home upon those financial distinctions in his presentation, in simple/memorable terms, because you can be sure they won’t be reinforced by Howard’s representatives in the coming days.
This was an extremely odd piece from Ken Berger last night, someone who I formerly had considered a neutral, respectable insider:
I just know that if he stays with the Lakers, he’ll put the NBA on notice that he’s finally figured it out. If he stays with the Lakers, he’ll take the first step toward repairing his image, proving his loyalty and entering the exclusive club of legends who’ve been made there.
He’ll be signing up for something hard, something challenging to live up to. It isn’t easy to win championships and be great.
I also know this: If he leaves, he’ll just go back to being Dwight Howard. Somehow, that makes the most sense.
I think that staying in L.A. for the lifestyle and the glamour is certainly a rational decision – it’s a quality of life choice, even if not comporting with one’s professional goals. But these watered-down platitudes of ‘loyalty’ and ‘legacy’ which have characterized the narrative surrounding the Lakers’ pursuit are downright embarrassing and should be taken as an insult to any reasonable individual’s intelligence.
There are rational reasons to stay in L.A.: if you don’t have faith in your body beyond a 4th year, if you truly believe Lebron will come, if you just simply love the city. But among those rational reasons, “because we’re the Lakers” is not and should not be one of them.
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]]> With Howard set to meet with the Mavericks and Lakers later today, I wouldn’t be shocked if we didn’t get an announcement by day’s end.To begin, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out Slim Thug’s pitch to Dwight Howard. It’s a brilliant dissertation on comparative cost of living and housing prices. To quote Deadspin, truly Slim’s best work since his cameo in “Check on it.”
There had already been preliminary talks between Dwight Howard and Time Warner on a show if he returned to the Lakers.
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) July 1, 2013
Besides Kobe, Nash, Kupchak and Jim Buss, reps from Time Warner will also be in the meeting with Howard Tuesday.
— Ramona Shelburne (@ramonashelburne) July 1, 2013
The lawyer in me immediately sees red flags painted all over this situation. Shelburne’s follow-up tweets intimate that the league has given consent to TWC’s presence at the meeting and that no compensation would be offered. I personally don’t see how this isn’t bordering on outright circumvention of the CBA, but what the hell do I know?
Overall, at the time of writing, my mood is one of skepticism. The Lakers are putting on a full-court press in catering to Howard’s greatest vulnerabilities from emotional appeals to his desires for the glitz and glamour of the big city. And as I wrote earlier, I do not think the magnitude can be understated of the impact of the Lakers pitching last. While some saw it as a good sign, I think Houston was in the most disadvantaged position of all of the suitors by going first. If I had to guess, I’d predict that we’ll hear by tomorrow that he’s staying in L.A. We’ll know what Dwight Howard’s priorities are soon enough.
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]]> I’m scared to even start writing this for fear of it becoming outdated by the time I hit publish. In ten minutes, the Rockets will begin their meeting with Dwight Howard.Earlier today, they traded Thomas Robinson to the Blazers for what amounts to four future prospects. The news also broke that the team has placed both guard Jeremy Lin and center Omer Asik on the trade market. The news on Lin doesn’t come as too big a shock, but with Asik, it signals that Daryl Morey’s eyes could be on some far bigger prize.
Asik might be the league’s best value contract, slated at just $8.3million for a player who brings some of the best defensive contributions in the sport. I would have hoped that the Rockets would, even if signing Dwight, hold onto Omer, ensuring that for 48 minutes, each night, they would enjoy elite level rim protection. It can be argued that if adding Dwight, it would make sense to allocate Asik’s value towards other needs. I think, however, that he’s a luxury we cannot afford to lose.
If Morey is to trade Omer Asik, I don’t think it will be in a trade of the sort of which we’ve become accustomed [in bringing back undervalued hidden gems.] I think it would only happen for someone he’d consider a true third star to fit next to Howard and Harden. Possible targets seem like Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Josh Smith.
I don’t know how doable Rondo or Aldridge trades would be because those teams would certainly want back young assets in combination with Asik. The likelier candidate is Smith who is a free agent and a childhood friend of Howard’s.
By some measures, Smith was the very best perimeter defender in the entire NBA, last season. Along with Howard, Smith would thrust the Rockets into the elite category of defenses. But his warts offensively are well-documented. If it came down to it, I’d prefer to just keep Asik and develop the young power forwards. But I’m torn. Smith has been, at the very least, the second best player on a Hawks team that has made the playoffs year in and year out. The little things he does to effect the game are undeniable.
Somewhere in Los Angeles, at this very moment, a cadre including Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, James Harden, Kevin McHale, and Daryl Morey is speaking with Dwight Howard.
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]]> Marc Stein tweeted some nuggets of Rocket relevance today, saying:First, regarding McHale: This confirms the conventional wisdom regarding that hire. There were men available far better equipped for the task but for a team whose most recognizable figure was its general manager, Houston needed a figurehead. Now with McHale, they can approach Dwight Howard with pedigree.
On Robinson: A few thoughts. I was sharply critical of his abilities last season, even stating recently that I saw “nothing in him that makes me think he’ll ever be an impact player on this team.” That the Rockets are on the verge of dealing Robinson is not an affirmation of that sentiment nor is it an indictment of the player himself. This is a move simply being made for cap room. Yes, there are some analytical nuances (namely the deduction that the team would prefer to part ways with the former #5 overall pick rather than dealing both Terrence Jones and Motiejunas, but that’s not much of a logical leap), but to be clear: this is completely about cap room.
It’s also been posited that that Morey is readily willing to deal T-Rob is proof that the former is sure or has been given assurance that Howard will be signing. This is nonsense. Dealing Robinson to clear the necessary cap room to even give himself a shot at Howard is what any reasonable manager would do. This isn’t exactly a high risk gamble. He’s trading a marginal player to give himself a chance. Don’t read too much into it. While Morey likely is feeling confident about his chances, this T-Rob aspect isn’t probative evidence of anything.
Lastly, the one that made you smile: after it seemed like the Clippers might have pushed to the forefront, now most reports seem to be pointing back towards Houston. With the way the tide has turned, we’ll just have to wait and see. But two things are extremely encouraging. 1) The above point, regarding rival executives and 2) the testimony from Chandler Parsons that he and Howard speak daily. Why are these encouraging? Because after the Clippers story broke, my suspicion had become that all of the early reports linking Howard to Houston had actually been planted leaks from Howard’s camp in attempts to build a viable threat. The theory was that if Howard would eventually need the Lakers’ participation (in a S&T), he’d need to create a fear that he’d leave somewhere outright. But if he’s asking Parsons questions daily, as Parsons testified, there likely is genuine interest.
I’ll be back tomorrow with more coverage after the Rockets make their selection at #14. Ah, wait…
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]]> At the moment of writing, and since my last installment, the hottest news has been that of a strong-armed push by the strong-headed Chris Paul to engineer a string of moves that would propel, in my opinion, the LA Clippers to the head of the class in the Western Conference. The Clippers and Celtics are haggling, but in the end, LA’s other team could have a roster featuring Paul, Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, Paul Pierce, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Garnett. And they’d actually for the first time in the Paul era have a real coach.While LA doesn’t want to have to take back Terry and Lee because of the amounts those two are still owed, one must admit that on-court, with those players’ pedigree and experience, the effect would be a net positive, especially come postseason time. And of course swapping out Jordan and Griffin for Garnett and Howard takes Lob City from flash to actual substance.
While reports are that some in LA’s front office have balked at the idea of trading Griffin, I think the Clippers would be fools to not make that deal. But I digress. Let’s examine where things now stand:
This Doc Rivers-Garnett deal is going to get done, sooner or later – the two sides are just posturing. There’s absolutely no reason for Boston to not agree to whatever the two sides settle on because they essentially have no leverage. (One wonders how they’ve even managed to leverage this situation in the first place.) The Celtics can’t bring back Doc after this nor would they event want to (and have to pay him $7million during a rebuilding year); same goes for Garnett. Once this thing gets done and Doc/Garnett/Pierce land in LA, I think that effectively cements CP3′s return to the Clippers, regardless of whether or not the Clippers can get Howard. (Or does it?)
[sidenote: Those moves give Paul one hell of a one year window. And I'm sure he loves LA. But orchestrating a Howard-Harden-Paul trio in Houston gives him the best long term chance.]
But let’s just assume Paul is locked in in LA. That takes Atlanta out of the running for Howard because he’s obviously not going to want to go there alone now, without Paul. So that brings us back to Houston, staying with the Lakers, and going to the Clippers.
In some weird way, in my personal opinion, I almost feel like the Clippers option serves to eliminate the Lakers as a plausible choice for Howard. Before, it was seemingly between Houston and the Lakers: the “best”, fun choice vs. guilt, loyalty, and whatever other platitudes you can muster up. But now there’s another serious fun choice in the Clippers and when you have two choices that good that you’re weighing between, I would just think it’d be too depressing to pass up on both and stay somewhere where you have no chance to win for at least another year. So I think if he can’t get to the Clippers, he comes to Houston.
I think if Dwight had his way, today, he’d want to be a Clipper. He stays in Hollywood with the best point guard on the planet. But the debate is whether the two cross-town rivals would work together on a deal. I already discussed the Clippers’ side but if you’re the Lakers, do you prefer Blake and the chance at one other star in ’14 or a completely clean slate? What is a bird in hand really worth? I personally just can’t decide which way I’d lean. On the one hand, if you take Griffin, at least you are guaranteed one star rather than getting nothing next summer. But on the other hand, you could’ve offered Lebron the chance to pick whoever he wants beside him, whether it be Carmelo or whomever. You can also completely suck and give yourself a better shot at Wiggins.
[sidenote 2: I still think anyone thinking the Lakers would be willing to take Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin in a S&T is completely kidding themselves. The Lakers are not only going to sabotage their '14 plans but also pay luxury tax next year for a mediocre team? Right.]
I think the big irony in all of these depressing developments regarding Dwight, when it seemed like the odds of him coming to Houston were favorable, is that if all of this somehow happens, the odds of the Rockets acquiring Pau Gasol shoot up. Yes, we’ve come full circle.
Assuming the LA teams hook up on a Howard deal, unless Kobe protests too much, you could easily see Morey trading Thomas Robinson somewhere and then absorbing Pau Gasol in a trade with the Lakers hoping to shed off more salary. We could give them Matt Maloney or someone, doesn’t matter – Houston would be the only suitor on the market. A lot of you would bitch and moan but, as was evident late last year, Gasol still has a ton left in the tank and would drastically improve this team. It’s a much better option than signing Josh Smith and ruining our chances next summer.
For now though, there’s no reason to think that Houston’s chances for Dwight still aren’t strong. It’s only June 17th and even he probably hasn’t yet made his mind up. All we have are reports from parties with a lot at stake.
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]]> As I mentioned in my last installment, one baffling phenomenon is the fairly prevalent opinion that the Rockets would be better off without Dwight Howard. From every angle, I just can’t seem to make sense of the sentiment.This was a great piece from Bill Simmons written some weeks ago in which, essentially, he argues that Howard is on the decline. Funny thing is that I completely agree. His best years are behind him and if he signs a four year deal with Houston, at the end of the term, when at age 31, I would be willing to bet that that would be the end of his days as a Rocket. I don’t think he’ll be worth a max contract any more at that point in time.
(sidenote: Amazingly, James Harden will still just be 28 when the Howard era ends and if the team plans properly, which they obviously will, they’ll be able to reload for another run in The Beard era after Howard’s contracts comes off the books.)
But that Howard is on the decline shouldn’t preclude a pursuit of the center. He’s still greatly effective and one of the best finishers in the league. And while his character warts are evident (is there a more obnoxious personality in the league?), what exactly are the opportunity costs? First off, I don’t need to delineate upon his oncourt abilities: those points have been hammered to death. But the Howard detractors act as if some other viable option is being overlooked. Josh Smith too will soon be on the decline and handing out large contracts to players like Paul Millsap is the surest way to perpetuate mediocrity. Howard at least is still elite at what he does, even if he might not ever be the same.
I think fans often suffer from “Tim Duncan Syndrome”, assuming that if a player isn’t perfect, they just aren’t worth it. There’s only one Duncan. For everyone else, it’s an analysis of risk, weighing cons against pros, and a determination of what negatives can be absorbed. Dwight Howard possibly isn’t worth $20million in vacuo of other considerations. But if cast against the spectrum of this Rockets’ teams current outlook in fitting a final piece, the price is a no-brainer.
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]]> One thing that’s interesting is that in all of the discussion of Lebron’s greatness these past few years, not once, or if I missed it, very seldom is it, or has it been brought up that he “took the easy way out” and joined forces with Wade and Bosh. Funny because in all of the venomous idiocy surrounding the discussion of his decision a few years back, most of the critics made this claim: that whatever he did would be tarnished because he jumped ship. And it hasn’t happened. No one cares.It’s the latest of proofs that in general, people forget and the latest of reasons why, if you are an athlete, you should always serve your own interests. Dwight Howard claims that he is done trying to make everyone happy and will make his decision based on his own right for the emotion. We’ll see if he can be believed. Dwight’s train of thought two years back when he decided to opt back in to appease those who now hate him in Orlando was one of the most embarrassing acts of immaturity I can remember in recent history, an episode through which the man created his own ultimate detriment (keeping him from his desired Brooklyn Nets). What will he do this time?
If you’re a player, always take the money. (Or at the least, the situation you want.) Never play hurt. Why? Because they’ll ship your ass out the moment it becomes convenient. And the public forgets. The public always forgets. No one is giving Grant Hill a medal for the valor of coming back too soon to play on a bad ankle, consequently destroying a surefire HOF career. We backhandedly pat him on the back as one would do to a young child for a good effort for being able to eventually make it back and last – but we don’t praise him for “toughing” it out and playing injured when with Detroit. Kudos to you, Derrick Rose. If you don’t feel ready, then don’t come back. The masses poking fun at your ‘cowardice’ for sitting out won’t be the ones pitching in to make up the millions you’ll lose if something goes wrong.
I’ve argued that the players’ union needs to do a better job educating players to better serve their own interests and ignore public sentiment.
(sidenote: Once of the most hilariously preposterous moments I can remember was, during I believe Larry Bird’s HOF ceremony [or perhaps Magic's], the two former greats [Larry and Magic] chuckled in unison to the crowd’s delight, regarding Lebron’s departure, remarking that they never would have teamed up and joined forces. Of course conveniently ignoring the fact that each had the benefit of playing alongside some of the greatest star-studded casts in NBA history and didn’t need to team up.)
What happens if Howard stays in L.A., and the Lakers never reclaim former glory? He’ll be seen as a flop in the public eye – an unworthy successor upon the Rushmore of Laker greats. Sure, he could just as well flop in Houston. And he’d be seen as a disappointment here for that too. But the point is that he should do what makes him happy and not what pleases others. Wherever he fails, he’ll draw scorn. And if he succeeds, wherever it is, history has proven that it will all be forgiven and forgotten.
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]]> To begin, since I hadn’t written in so long before last night, I’ll be trying to cover my bases here initially regarding some of the past news that’s come out during my hiatus.One of the nuggets which has made its way into our discourse is the revelation that Dwight Howard apparently is intrigued by the prospect of teaming up with Rockets center Omer Asik. This was referenced again by Grantland’s Jalen Rose during his most recent video interview. The revelation is surprising to say the least as conventional wisdom would dictate, upon a Howard signing, dealing the pricey-yet-valuable Asik for a true power forward. Or perhaps it is not too surprising.
Part of me thinks, while harsh, that the sentiment somewhat speaks to Howard’s self-delusions regarding his own abilities. Asik is the prototypical garbageman, a master at cleaning up and doing the heavy lifting required to help teams win. Howard is essentially a superstar garbageman who, apart from his elite abilities finishing at the rim, is basically just really, really good at cleaning up garbage. Great centers with true offensive skills love to have garbage-men beside them (Otis Thorpe, Charles Oakley, Horace Grant) because the extra muscle allows them to funnel their energy into post scoring, knowing a capable partner is there to pick up the slack. If Hakeem loved Otis Thorpe, it made sense. But Howard wanting Asik is a bit odd as Asik essentially does what Howard is supposed to be doing.
A reader pointed out this morning, citing Howard’s affinity for Serge Ibaka, that Howard likely would prefer to help from the weakside and have a ‘mate who will “help the helper.” The reader cited Howard’s comments earlier this season about defensive trust. This makes some sense.
If Howard were to be signed, I’m not completely sure what I’d do with Asik. (If Howard truly wants him around, it’s a moot point.) On the one hand, $8million for a backup (I do not think they can play in tandem for major minutes during this era plagued by the tyranny of the positional revolution) with high value is not very good asset allocation. On the other hand, two elite DPOY-caliber defensive 7 footers is one hell of a luxury to have for a contender.
I’ve gone on record with regard to my reluctance towards Josh Smith. I think he could surely be had in a deal for Asik. While Smith too is elite (by some statistical standards perhaps the best perimeter defender in basketball) defensively, like Howard, he’ll soon be on the decline. If Howard were to be acquired, at this point in time, I’d prefer to hold onto Asik, at least for the time being, and give the young power forwards a shot at development.
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