Serious question: Will Dwight Howard be more valuable than Omer Asik over the next 5 years?

By Justin Wehr | December 18, 2013 at 11:17 am

I know the question sounds ridiculous. I don’t mean to ruffle feathers or be provocative, I am just curious if I am the only one biased enough to believe that, over the next 5 years, Asik might bring at least as much to the table as Howard.

In order to help you identify my delusions, I have laid out my premises below.

  • Dwight Howard’s back surgery looks like it could be one of the most dramatic turning points in NBA history. Prior to his back surgery, Dwight Howard was indisputably one of the best two or three players in the league, and now he’s maybe one of the top 30. To put that in perspective (using ESPN’s NBA Rank), that would be like Kevin Durant or Chris Paul dropping to the level of Pau Gasol or Damian Lillard.
  • If Dwight Howard is still not fully recovered from his back surgery 606 days later – and Dwight himself said he isn’t in this radio show yesterday – then it looks unlikely that he will ever return to his former self.
  • I worry that Howard could suffer another major injury at any moment, rendering his contract a giant sinkhole in the Rockets’ flexibility. Asik, on the other hand, seems surprisingly stout for a big man, and it wouldn’t be contractual doom even if he were to go down.
  • Asik is currently one of the top 40 players in the league, and that’s being conservative. I believe he’s not far behind Joakim Noah or Roy Hibbert, and in fact in RAPM they were dead even last year.
  • Layups and corner threes are the most efficient shots in basketball, and the Rockets will get more of those shots with Asik rather than Howard simply because Howard demands post touches, which are less than efficient, to put it delicately.
  • Asik will likely improve at a faster rate than Howard simply because he’s a little younger and a lot less experienced. (Also, rumor is that Asik is a much more of a gym rat than Howard, but I have no evidence to support that claim.)
  • Asik is likely to age much more gracefully than Howard simply because his game relies much less on athleticism.

Even if you’re not convinced that Asik could be as valuable as Howard over the next 5 years (I’m not convinced myself), you might at least agree that the difference is not awfully large. And if it isn’t, then you have to wonder why the Rockets aren’t also considering trade options for Howard.

Think of it this way. We know that the Rockets cannot get much in return for Asik (sorry, Millsap, Young, and Verejao, but in my book you don’t count as “much”), but presumably the Rockets could get quite a bit in return for Howard. Like, say, Kevin Love? And wouldn’t Asik + Love be a much more devastating front court than post-surgery Howard + your choice of Millsap, Young, or Verejao?

Of course Howard for Love isn’t going to happen, I’m just dabbling in hypotheticals as sports fans do. I’m curious to hear other opinions on this.

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Total comments: 38
  • miketheodio says 3 months ago

    Last 8 games, D12 is averaging 1.06 points per play when given the ball in the post. Getting healthy and dominate again.

    some of the post problems are due to the team not setting the post up properly as well.

    he's had more room to operate recently.

  • Steven says 3 months ago Last 8 games, D12 is averaging 1.06 points per play when given the ball in the post. Getting healthy and dominate again.
  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    Check out Dwight's improvement from November to December. I know the season is long and these numbers will fluctuate up and down, b ut there is no denying that things are looking up across the board!


    Hmmm, I wonder what D12's ceiling might be on his free throw shooting going forward? 65%? 68%? Are we pushing the envelope way too far by hoping for, ahem, 70%?

    Isn't it interesting that as D12's free throw shooting improves this season, simultaneously Hack a Howard is being used less and less across the league as a strategy against the Rockets?

    Am I the only one here, or have other members noticed that D12 has a much better stroke and presence/finish at the free throw line now than earlier this season or at any time that I recall ever watching D12 shoot free throws?
  • thejohnnygold says 3 months ago

    Check out Dwight's improvement from November to December. I know the season is long and these numbers will fluctuate up and down, b ut there is no denying that things are looking up across the board!

  • 2016Champions says 3 months ago Dwight had shoulder problems the last 2 years which kept him from practicing his free throws to the extent he usually does. Prior to those 2 seasons Dwight has been a career 59% shooter from the line, it's not a reach to think he can get back to that now that his shoulder is fine and he's spending hours after every practice practicing.
  • UBK says 3 months ago

    So are you happy that D12 is making an effort to improve his free throw shooting or are you rooting for him to fail? I don't understand what you are trying to get at here.

    You seem to be inferring a whole bunch of motivations into what I am writing that aren't there. I was just asking why you thought he had proved he can get better. Asking that does not mean I am rooting for him to fail or that I have info about ways Asik is improving or that I am happy or sad about his efforts. Thanks for the info about his recent performance.

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    Practicing free throws is not at all evidence that one can improve at it. He has done better recently but more time is needed to see if it is a real improvement.


    So are you happy that D12 is making an effort to improve his free throw shooting or are you rooting for him to fail? I don't understand what you are trying to get at here.
  • UBK says 3 months ago

    Well, for one, D12 actually goes to a nearby Sugarland high school gym with one of the Rocket's assistants on his nights off and shoots free throws and works on his post game.

    Although it is indisputable that D12 has had some poor free throw shooting games this season, all but the recent Sacramento game were early in the season. Recently, D12 has shot 7/7 vs Golden State, 7/9 vs Phoenix, 9/13 vs Dallas, 17/24 vs Denver, 9/12 vs Portland, 7/10 vs. Utah etc.

    So can you please elaborate for forum members on this board just exactly what has Asik done lately to improve on his game like catching passes maybe, finishing at the rim, etc.

    Practicing free throws is not at all evidence that one can improve at it. He has done better recently but more time is needed to see if it is a real improvement.

    I made no comment about Asik so I don't understand why you expect me in particular to comment on his work ethic.

  • Losthief says 3 months ago

    I always said I'd rather have Asik than DH. DH does not have team first winners mentality (admittedly, Asik has not strengthened his advantage in this dept this season), and his athleticism is in decline, and post-surgery even more so. VERY Un-Morey-like, I think Morey got dazzled by "superstar" status rather than looking at production, fit, etc. DH has only slightly made team better. And I like JLin, but I see him more as Harden in OKC. 6th man extraordinaire. His game is much like Harden's so playing them together doesn't make sense. Lin needs the ball a lot to thrive. Trading DH makes most sense. Too bad thats not happening. I LOVE the Millsap instead of DH idea, but obv thats not happening.

    only thing i have to say to this is about the DH thing. Harden has been far worse than he started out for us last year (efficency, health, turnovers, etc etc), and he has missed some games, as has chandler, as has Lin, as has Asik. If your telling me we would be 17-9 with Asik instead of Howard, I really doubt it. We have had much more issues health wise this year especially with our starting line-up, but were off to a great start anyways. Alot of that has to sit with Howard imho.

    edit: quoted from another thread so I didn't have to do the research myself tks :D

    Don't forget all the injuries the Rockets have dealt with thus far this season:

    Harden missed 4 games
    Beverly missed 3 games
    Parsons missed 2 games
    Asik missed 9 games
    Lin missed 8 games
    Francisco missed 1 game
    Casspi missed 1 game
    TJones has 3 DNP-CD's due to the Twin Towers Experiment

    D12 is the only top 9 Rockets player that has not missed a single game thus far. So much for D12 injury concerns!

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    I always said I'd rather have Asik than DH. DH does not have team first winners mentality (admittedly, Asik has not strengthened his advantage in this dept this season), and his athleticism is in decline, and post-surgery even more so. VERY Un-Morey-like, I think Morey got dazzled by "superstar" status rather than looking at production, fit, etc. DH has only slightly made team better. And I like JLin, but I see him more as Harden in OKC. 6th man extraordinaire. His game is much like Harden's so playing them together doesn't make sense. Lin needs the ball a lot to thrive. Trading DH makes most sense. Too bad thats not happening. I LOVE the Millsap instead of DH idea, but obv thats not happening.


    So you apparently think the Rockets stand a better chance of winning an NBA Title with Asik as our starting 5 rather than D12?

    BTW, some of the best offensive moments so far this season have been with Harden and Lin on the floor simultaneously.
  • NYerinCalifornia says 3 months ago

    I always said I'd rather have Asik than DH. DH does not have team first winners mentality (admittedly, Asik has not strengthened his advantage in this dept this season), and his athleticism is in decline, and post-surgery even more so. VERY Un-Morey-like, I think Morey got dazzled by "superstar" status rather than looking at production, fit, etc. DH has only slightly made team better. And I like JLin, but I see him more as Harden in OKC. 6th man extraordinaire. His game is much like Harden's so playing them together doesn't make sense. Lin needs the ball a lot to thrive. Trading DH makes most sense. Too bad thats not happening. I LOVE the Millsap instead of DH idea, but obv thats not happening.

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    I'm just playing devil's advocate. Howard is undisputed starter for us. I think Asik should just play and wait until he gets traded or play out his contract. But I understand why he is doing it. That's all. I just feel people is vastly undervaluing him now because he is compared to Howard. He is still a top 6-7 center overallin the league and top 3 in D.

    Let's hope Asik and the Rockets can move past this episode right away. Nothing would make me happier than to see Asik playing with passion and heart like he had last season when he is given playing time, whether it be for 10 minutes orturns out to be 20-30 minutes in some games.

    Trust issues are going to be a concern for at least the short term until Asik proves to his teammates and to the Coaches that he can be counted on.

  • thenit says 3 months ago

    I'm just playing devil's advocate. Howard is undisputed starter for us. I think Asik should just play and wait until he gets traded or play out his contract. But I understand why he is doing it. That's all. I just feel people is vastly undervaluing him now because he is compared to Howard. He is still a top 6-7 center overallin the league and top 3 in D.

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    We can't really see any improvements if he doesn't see the court can we? Not saying that he has improved but just saying we don't know yet.

    Howard FT% I will judge after a complete season same with his post moves. I don't think he's much better in the post with all his turnovers and poor efficiency.

    Sounds like you would prefer Asik as the starting 5 over D12 by your comments today. If not, what is your solution to the situation the Rockets are currently in?

  • thenit says 3 months ago

    I will judge Howard after the full season. One can hope though that he will improve to over 50% and 65%FT

  • thenit says 3 months ago

    We can't really see any improvements if he doesn't see the court can we? Not saying that he has improved but just saying we don't know yet.

    Howard FT% I will judge after a complete season same with his post moves. I don't think he's much better in the post with all his turnovers and poor efficiency.

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    "D12 has already proven he can improve his free throw shooting. What has Asik done during his off-time to improve his free throw shooting?"

    How he has proven that? His percentage this season is below his career average. Even if he can improve it there is no value to that unless he actually does.

    Well, for one, D12 actually goes to a nearby Sugarland high school gym with one of the Rocket's assistants on his nights off and shoots free throws and works on his post game.

    Although it is indisputable that D12 has had some poor free throw shooting games this season, all but the recent Sacramento game were early in the season. Recently, D12 has shot 7/7 vs Golden State, 7/9 vs Phoenix, 9/13 vs Dallas, 17/24 vs Denver, 9/12 vs Portland, 7/10 vs. Utah etc.

    So can you please elaborate for forum members on this board just exactly what has Asik done lately to improve on his game like catching passes maybe, finishing at the rim, etc.

  • UBK says 3 months ago

    "D12 has already proven he can improve his free throw shooting. What has Asik done during his off-time to improve his free throw shooting?"

    How he has proven that? His percentage this season is below his career average. Even if he can improve it there is no value to that unless he actually does.

  • thejohnnygold says 3 months ago

    "Yo Dawg, I'm gonna need some royalties for that....just sayin..."

    8-Mile-eminem-6924685-688-288.jpg

  • bboley24 says 3 months ago

    Thought about it. Don't care.

    Championship within the next 5 years.

    I choose Dwight.

    Don't care about his rapid decline.

    If you had, one shot... or one opportunity... HAHA

  • Steven says 3 months ago

    Good points for sure. However, I would add the caveat that the purpose this topic was brought up in the first place was value. In 5 years, if D12 = Asik in terms of athleticism and offensive/defensive skills, then for sure Asik is a better value because he's not the one earning $20 million plus then.

    However, I believe D12 possesses much more ability to force his will in key playoff games that Asik could only dream about possessing. To me, that more than makes up for the difference in salary, in addition to D12 being a much better player right now than Asik.

    Actually in 5 years the Rockets might not be paying Howard $20M. His contract is only for 4 years, with a ETO after 3. If his skills do digress in the next few years, he won't be making max money on his next contract.
  • RudyT1995 says 3 months ago

    I'd vote for Asik if he could just walk and catch at the same time. Until that happens, my vote is for Howard declining though he may be.

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    If your going to use health as a factor, in all fairness, dwight howard DOES NOT miss games. Like...seriously...its ridiculous when you actually think about it.

    He has missed 22 games in 9 years. (over 1/2 of those for the back injury...seriously only missed 12 (12!) games for BACK SURGERY.

    If you could guarentee that kind of track record with Asik...maybe...but history speaks louder in Howards case. Just saying, health at best is a wash.

    Now if you talking do I think Dwight might depreciate faster than Asik (which I have said before now) then that might be true skill wise. But health wise, aka availability for games, they both are amazingly healthy. Dwight will be there, i just worry he'll have to be the 3rd bannana in 5 years rather than a 1st or 2nd bananna. But Asik already is that...at best...so really thats a wash for me.

    Honestly after watching how much time Yao missed, Mcgrady missed, etc etc, looking at Howards stats for games played...is a balm imho.

    To put it in perspective

    lebron is a beast of nature...right?

    he's missed 38 games in the last 10 years. Just sayin...health as far as being in the game...thats a plus to Howard. Deteriating skills due to losing athleticism...different story, but worst case his still gonna be a Asik/Tyson Chandler level type player.

    Good points for sure. However, I would add the caveat that the purpose this topic was brought up in the first place was value. In 5 years, if D12 = Asik in terms of athleticism and offensive/defensive skills, then for sure Asik is a better value because he's not the one earning $20 million plus then.

    However, I believe D12 possesses much more ability to force his will in key playoff games that Asik could only dream about possessing. To me, that more than makes up for the difference in salary, in addition to D12 being a much better player right now than Asik.

  • Losthief says 3 months ago

    If your going to use health as a factor, in all fairness, dwight howard DOES NOT miss games. Like...seriously...its ridiculous when you actually think about it.

    He has missed 22 games in 9 years. (over 1/2 of those for the back injury...seriously only missed 12 (12!) games for BACK SURGERY.

    If you could guarentee that kind of track record with Asik...maybe...but history speaks louder in Howards case. Just saying, health at best is a wash.

    Now if you talking do I think Dwight might depreciate faster than Asik (which I have said before now) then that might be true skill wise. But health wise, aka availability for games, they both are amazingly healthy. Dwight will be there, i just worry he'll have to be the 3rd bannana in 5 years rather than a 1st or 2nd bananna. But Asik already is that...at best...so really thats a wash for me.

    Honestly after watching how much time Yao missed, Mcgrady missed, etc etc, looking at Howards stats for games played...is a balm imho.

    To put it in perspective

    lebron is a beast of nature...right?

    he's missed 38 games in the last 10 years. Just sayin...health as far as being in the game...thats a plus to Howard. Deteriating skills due to losing athleticism...different story, but worst case his still gonna be a Asik/Tyson Chandler level type player.

  • rocketrick says 3 months ago

    D12, unlike Asik, catches passes thrown to him which is step 1 before making a post move to score. D12 dunks with authority, does Asik? I say not really.

    D12 has already proven he can improve his free throw shooting. What has Asik done during his off-time to improve his free throw shooting?

    D12 has played high intensity playoff games, Asik's only post season experience is mostly sitting on the bench for the Bulls and last season's 6-game series vs. OKC.

    The game slows down considerably in the playoffs and D12's value, both offensively and defensively, will be much more impactful than Asik in my opinion. Winning playoff games and series is what all of this is about, and I believe D12 better positions the Rockets in this regard, with or without Asik on the roster.

  • feelingsupersonic says 3 months ago

    Barring another catastrophic injury, Howard will definitely be more valuable than Asik.
    I've said this before, and I'll say it again: almost none of the bigs to whom Howard is often compared can match up with him in every category. Kevin Love is more skilled on offense, but defensively, it's not even close. Roy Hibbert is a defensive beast (although his teammates cover up for his struggles with the pick-and-roll), but his rebounding and offensive production isn't close to Howard's level. Asik is about on par with Howard defensively, but offensively, he's not even in the conversation. Aldridge and Anthony Davis are about the only bigs in the league that would make me think about a trade involving Howard, and Davis' injury history is starting to cause concern.
    Howard's post play is more valuable in the reality of the NBA playoffs than it appears to be based on regular season stats, simply because it is a way to exploit matchups. Over 82 games against 29 teams, Howard in the post isn't the most productive offensive option. Over 7 games in a playoff series, it could be the only thing that gets Houston to the next round. Remember when the Spurs destroyed the league in the regular season and then ran into Memphis in the playoffs and got destroyed? Remember how the Utah Jazz destroyed the Yao Ming teams by fronting Yao? Remember how Dennis Rodman destroyed Utah's pick-and-roll game? The graveyard of NBA history is full of teams that hung their hat on a single, efficient offensive option, and didn't have a backup plan. That's why Dwight Howard is more valuable than Omer Asik.



    Could not have said it any better. It's not even close regardless of whatever statistics some of you want to twist. The amount of overvaluing players by fans never ceases to amaze me.
  • Chai says 3 months ago

    While I do believe Asik is a better one on one post defender, I also believe their impacts on team defense is similar. I think we've been so spoiled by Asik's amazing defense last year to truly appreciate how great Howard is despite not being 100% healthy.

    As the above mentioned, on offense, there's just no comparison. Having Dwight in the game just opens up the lane for our guards simply due to the danger of him going up for an alley-hoop.

  • 2016Champions says 3 months ago I think the common perception of Dwight's decline is greatly exaggerated, he was still top 10 in RAPM last season despite returning from unjury several months early (the recovery period for his surgery is 9-12 months, Dwight came back in 5). Dwight's days of being top 2 in RAPM are over, but there's no way Dwight has fallen out of the top 10.
  • PKM says 3 months ago

    Well, for starter, your claim is that Asik is a top 40 player in this league, and Howard is currently one of the top 30 - ie that there's not that much of a difference between Asik and Howard to begin with. I'll be perfectly honest - I think that is a ludicrous claim at best, and a disingenuous one at worst.

  • txtdo1411 says 3 months ago

    I tend to agree with Jeby. There have been games this year where the opposing teams have decided to guard the 3, stop our penetrating guards, and guard Howard 1 on 1. In these games, for the most part, Howard as destroyed the opposition. Think back to the Dallas game and the Portland games. Asik is extremely valuable as well, but he doesn't even give you an option on offense. Howard is going to be extremely valuable come playoffs time, especially if he continues to develop in the post. I can't wait to see us against the Thunder, because I believe Howard is the key in that series. OKC has enough long athletic defenders to challenge 3s, and limit our guards penetration... but who stops Dwight? Perkins or Adams? I like our odds with that match up.

  • kevingan says 3 months ago

    Before the Howard signing, I was hoping that we'd keep Asik and sign Milsap instead--it's frustrating to see what's happened since! We're not getting Milsap: dream on!

    I live in LA, and I'm not a big D12 fan; people talk about Lin and Asik being overpaid next year, but what about Howard for the next four? I think there's something missing in his temperament that makes him ill-suited for a championship run: too much of a people-pleaser, rather like Wilt, perhaps, and definitely unlike Russell or Kareem.

    The post-up is improving, it's true, but let's see if it produces a top four record in the West, and then if it really makes a difference in the playoffs---Jeby makes a good point about Howard's potential and playoff history, but we just have to see when we get there.

  • Jeby says 3 months ago

    Barring another catastrophic injury, Howard will definitely be more valuable than Asik.
    I've said this before, and I'll say it again: almost none of the bigs to whom Howard is often compared can match up with him in every category. Kevin Love is more skilled on offense, but defensively, it's not even close. Roy Hibbert is a defensive beast (although his teammates cover up for his struggles with the pick-and-roll), but his rebounding and offensive production isn't close to Howard's level. Asik is about on par with Howard defensively, but offensively, he's not even in the conversation. Aldridge and Anthony Davis are about the only bigs in the league that would make me think about a trade involving Howard, and Davis' injury history is starting to cause concern.
    Howard's post play is more valuable in the reality of the NBA playoffs than it appears to be based on regular season stats, simply because it is a way to exploit matchups. Over 82 games against 29 teams, Howard in the post isn't the most productive offensive option. Over 7 games in a playoff series, it could be the only thing that gets Houston to the next round. Remember when the Spurs destroyed the league in the regular season and then ran into Memphis in the playoffs and got destroyed? Remember how the Utah Jazz destroyed the Yao Ming teams by fronting Yao? Remember how Dennis Rodman destroyed Utah's pick-and-roll game? The graveyard of NBA history is full of teams that hung their hat on a single, efficient offensive option, and didn't have a backup plan. That's why Dwight Howard is more valuable than Omer Asik.

  • 2016Champions says 3 months ago I think the best thing about Dwight's post ups is that it gives the other 4 guys time to rest, and a little rest helps considering the pace Rockets play at.
  • Cooper says 3 months ago You can't trade Howard less than a year into his contract unless you never want to sign a big time free agent again. Howard's post up inefficiency is a little overrated. Yeah corner threes and layups are technically the most efficient shots but you don't think other teams know that and will take a lot of those away? Especially in a playoff series. You have to have some divirsity in your offense while Howard isn't exactly Hakeem in the post. asik is a complete non factor. In five years you really don't want either as a starter.
  • Rahat Huq says 3 months ago

    I agree here. It'd be PR doom so it'd never happen. But setting all that aside, keeping Asik and trading Howard would be the best value move.

  • rm90025 says 3 months ago

    The question is a good one. The truth is that Howard has not appreciably improved Houston's defense. When matched up against bigger and/or skilled bigs, Howard hasn't been dominant and has had his share of games where he has been outplayed. Asik is probably a better defensive player. Offensively, Howard has had a very good month and has shown better skills.Butwill thatmove Houston intoelite status? Right now,they would probably be the #5 seed and would likely be defeated in the first round by any of the top 4 teams in the West. Their potential differentiator is the twin towers concept andoptimizing the Harden-Lin backcourt relationship. The Rockets have failed to develop on either front so far this year. It is probably too late to reintegrate Asik at this point because he has lost trust in the organization and vice versa. They could easily reinsert Lin into the starting lineup and if they focus on that they could have a team that can make the western conference finals.

  • 2016Champions says 3 months ago I think it's fun to speculate, fun to dream, and Dwight for Love would be a dream come true (assuming we keep Asik in this scenario).
  • timetodienow1234567 says 3 months ago Good article. Good food for thought. I like Howard but since we have Asik, Ive been secretly hoping we flip Howard for LMA, Love, or someone similar. But I don't think it will happen as it will give Houston a big black eye and free agents would stay away from us.