The Houston Rockets currently employ two very good point guards: Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry. With Dragic an unrestricted free agent next summer, and Lowry already locked up, the team will face an unenviable decision. Over the next few months, I will look into some of the factors that will play a role in the eventual outcome. Today, in this first installment, I took a look at each player’s statistical production.
Offense:
- As a starter, in 11 starts, Goran Dragic is averaging 16.6ppg, 9.5apg, while shooting 52% from the field and 46% on 3’s.
- As a starter, in 38 starts, Kyle Lowry is averaging 15.9ppg, 7.2apg, while shooting 42% from the floor and 39% on 3’s.
- Notes: The sample size on Dragic, 11 games, is small enough to where you’d probably expect those shooting averages to regress to the mean slightly, but, at the same time, it’s also large enough to where you can’t dismiss the sheer gaudiness as a total fluke. I think the overall takeaway is that as a starter, Dragic is, and will be, very good.
- Per 36 minutes, Dragic averages 14.3 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 45% from the field and 34% from 3.
- Per 36 minutes, Lowry averages 16.1 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 42% from the field and 39% from 3.
- Notes: Pretty similar numbers. Also consider that these averages include the games in which Dragic came off the bench. I think the conclusion there, looking at those shooting numbers, is that he plays much better as a starter. Maybe it allows him to pace himself and play more in control?
- With Dragic on the floor, the team scores 104.8 points per 100 possessions. They give up 102.3 points per 100 possessions.
- With Lowry on the floor, the team scores 103.1 points per 100 possessions. They give up 100.0 points per 100 possessions.
- Notes: I’m not going to read too much into these numbers because they aren’t broken down with enough precision. There were a significant amount of minutes earlier in the year when Dragic and Lowry played side by side. In a future installment, I will look more closely at the positional breakdowns provided by 82games.com.
- In the clutch–in the last five minutes of games when the score is within five points, Dragic shoots 65% from the floor and 71% from 3, with 4.4 assists. This is in 65 minutes of such circumstances.
- In the clutch, Lowry shoots 36% from the floor, 46% from 3, with 4.2 assists. This is in 85 minutes.
- Notes: Wow. Dragic’s numbers completely blew my mind. I remembered that Lowry was shooting some insane clip from ‘3’ in the clutch. It’s come down quite a bit but 46% is still very, very respectable. But Dragic’s numbers are beyond belief. And one can’t even say he’s played far less because the sample sizes are fairly close. Now obviously, Goran isn’t going to shoot 65% from the floor over the long haul. But the point is that he’s a pretty capable hand running the team in tense situations. I’d like to see numbers that compare the team’s overall efficiency in the clutch with each player running the point. At the moment, I can’t find that.
Defense:
- Dragic’s man scores 36% of the time against him and shoots 38% overall. In isolations, his man scores 31% of the time and shoots 30% from the field. When operating as the P&R ball-handler, Dragic’s man scores 35% of the time and shoots 38%.
- Lowry’s man scores 39.3% of the time he tries and shoots 44% from the field. In isolation, his man scores 32% of the time and shoots 39%. When operating as the P&R ball-handler, Lowry’s man scores 39% of the time and shoots 47%.
- Notes: I was really interested to see these numbers. Take them with a grain of salt. For one, Lowry has spent many more minutes guarding starters. Having said that, we’ve all seen with our own eyes just how bad Lowry has been defensively this season. It’s been so bad that Kevin McHale has/had regularly made defensive switches late in games with Lowry and Lee/Dragic when star point guards have lit up the former. He’s looked close to helpless on multiple occasions against the likes of Tony Parker and Chris Paul. It’s been shocking as, going into this year, one of the greatest things going for Lowry was that he was supposedly a great defender. Maybe he’s getting gassed easier after logging so many minutes. Maybe he’s just too fat? Either way, the biggest takeaway, perhaps, is to hide these numbers from opposing teams. If they saw them, they’d P&R Kyle to death.
Conclusion:
Dragic has the better numbers but Lowry’s come at a bigger sample. If we assume that Goran’s numbers will slightly regress with time, it’s probably a wash. Perhaps a slight edge to Goran.
I think the takeaway is that based on the numbers, you can make a good case for either guy. Lowry’s the proven product but Dragic’s sample is large enough to feel safe in handing him the team.
In my next installment, I will assess potential suitors for Goran Dragic this upcoming offseason.