57 replies to this topic

[thejohnnygold]

before last season I spent the summer debating whether we needed another facilitator on this team. I argued that we have never seen the true potential because we have never had a true PG since the departure of both Lowry and Dragic. I still believe that. I expect all of our big's to explode now that someone is roaming the perimeter who knows how to feed them. while Harden is a hell of a player......he is only subpar when it comes to feeding our big's IMO. he doesn't look to use them nearly as much as he should. even if Lawson starts the season coming off the bench it will only be a matter of time before he assumes the starting role and eats the lions share of minutes at PG. the man isn't making 13 mil per because he's a backup. while I like Beverly.......Lawson is a better player. besides with Brew, Bev and Thorton\ KJ the ball may not need to touch the court 

 

I don't agree with the term "subpar", but I do agree with your point that Lawson's effect on this team will be profound.  I can see Lawson coming in and playing Jeremy Lin's role from 2 seasons ago.

 

Lin played 29 mpg and averaged 12.5 ppg, 4 assists, 1 stl, and 2.5 to's (per36 numbers of 16 & 5).  He did that with average shooting percentages and he also took 36% of his shots from mid-range!

 

I don't think I have to work very hard to convince people that Lawson is going to improve on those numbers.  Lawson's per36 of 15 points and 10 assists with 2.5 to's shows exactly what we will get.  Yes, his shooting percentages were slightly lower, but I am pretty sure those extra 5 assists make up for it.

 

What is lost is the psychological boost he will bring.  Guys like making shots.  (who doesn't?!?!?!)  It gets them going.  It improves morale and that improves effort on both ends.

 

 

Winning is contagious.  Guys will start feeding off of each other more and more as their individual success merges and becomes a singular, mutual feeling.  It's not that everyone's ego went away.  It is that each player's ego is being fed properly due to the cohesion of the team--they are sharing a collective ego and all feeding off of that.  That's the team we're looking for.  That's what all the talking heads who blather on about synergy, chemistry, continuity, etc. are trying to get at.  I think we are there.

 

This is why I think Morey will sit out this trade deadline.  (Barring unforeseen circumstance).  Last season's 2nd place finish and play off run has these guys believing and that is crucial to our success.  

[majik19]

This is why I think Morey will sit out this trade deadline.  (Barring unforeseen circumstance).  Last season's 2nd place finish and play off run has these guys believing and that is crucial to our success.  

 

Whoa whoa whoa, let's not go too far!

 

Morey will almost certainly do something at the deadline. What if KJ isn't getting any playing time (flip him for a late first rounder, maybe)? What if Harrell and/or Dekker prove they deserve minutes, making Jones expendable? What if Christian Wood turns out to be pretty good, but never gets to play because of our depth (so flip him for a 2nd rounder)? What if a veteran is released and wants to come to Houston, so we make a deal to make room for him? I'm not saying any of these scenarios are likely, but I find it likely that something like one of these things this will happen, and we'll at least trade for a 2nd round pick. 

 

The fact that we have no first round pick in next year's draft is going to bother Morey.

[thejohnnygold]

Whoa whoa whoa, let's not go too far!

 

Morey will almost certainly do something at the deadline. What if KJ isn't getting any playing time (flip him for a late first rounder, maybe)? What if Harrell and/or Dekker prove they deserve minutes, making Jones expendable? What if Christian Wood turns out to be pretty good, but never gets to play because of our depth (so flip him for a 2nd rounder)? What if a veteran is released and wants to come to Houston, so we make a deal to make room for him? I'm not saying any of these scenarios are likely, but I find it likely that something like one of these things this will happen, and we'll at least trade for a 2nd round pick. 

 

The fact that we have no first round pick in next year's draft is going to bother Morey.

 

Maybe....maybe not.  If this proves to be true than I would say that Morey is putting himself ahead of the team.

 

Our roster is legitimately 15 deep.  Only Jason Terry comes off the books next season.  Assuming Lawson works out we will be picking up that contract.  Dwight, should he opt out, will likely be re-signed and if not is here for another season.  If D-Mo or T-Jones are allowed to enter RFA it will be because we intend to re-sign them.  (There are many who want Durant to come here as a free agent next year, but the likelihood is small and blowing up this team to try and get him would undo everything we spent the last 4 years+ working on.)

 

Assuming we allow both Jones and Motie to hit the market after this season still guarantees nothing.  We may wind up matching both contracts and using one of those to trade for bigger fish.  We definitely match one which only opens one slot.

 

My point is we don't have much roster space.  The only wheeling and dealing I can foresee is sending out 1-2 of our picks in the next draft or two for future considerations.  We just don't have the roster space and we are set on depth.

 

As for KJ--he is going to get groomed.  Watching film of that guy is awesome.  Like I said after the season ended and people were worried if we would re-sign him--Morey didn't give up Canaan for nothing.  In a year or two, every single team in the league will have fan boards clamoring for their team to trade for KJ McDaniels the same way fans clamored for Eric Bledsoe when he was in LA.

 

In a year or two, when that demand is at its peak, maybe Morey pulls the trigger.  Right now, he is ours.

 

As for the lack of a first round pick--I think that will be fine.  Once again, we have almost no roster space (first rounders get guaranteed contracts) and the lone slot we are likely to have will be slotted for a veteran on a minimum deal.

 

Our young guys are going to have to understand that they are being groomed by future NBA champions.  Take a year or two, learn from the best and then take over from there.  Christian Wood is not NBA ready so I am not worried about him.

[timetodienow1234567]

Are you willing to pay for a 5 year deal starting at around 29-30 mil a year for Dwight next year?

Or if he opts in then we would pay him nearly 200 mil over 5 years(roughly 40 per).

I don't see Dwight as a piece in the future since he will command the max from some other team like the Knicks or some other crappy franchise.

I may be in the minority but Dwights age and injury history scare me and I would not be surprised to see Dwight in a different uniform next year, especially if we don't come out of the west.

So this year it's do or die.

[majik19]

Are you willing to pay for a 5 year deal starting at around 29-30 mil a year for Dwight next year?

 

This is really a whole different topic, but based on how he played in the playoffs last year, the answer from me is YES. 

[Cooper]

3yrs tops for Howard even that 3rd year you'd probably not feel great about.

[rockets best fan]

Maybe....maybe not.  If this proves to be true than I would say that Morey is putting himself ahead of the team.

 

Our roster is legitimately 15 deep.  Only Jason Terry comes off the books next season.  Assuming Lawson works out we will be picking up that contract.  Dwight, should he opt out, will likely be re-signed and if not is here for another season.  If D-Mo or T-Jones are allowed to enter RFA it will be because we intend to re-sign them.  (There are many who want Durant to come here as a free agent next year, but the likelihood is small and blowing up this team to try and get him would undo everything we spent the last 4 years+ working on.)

 

Assuming we allow both Jones and Motie to hit the market after this season still guarantees nothing.  We may wind up matching both contracts and using one of those to trade for bigger fish.  We definitely match one which only opens one slot.

 

My point is we don't have much roster space.  The only wheeling and dealing I can foresee is sending out 1-2 of our picks in the next draft or two for future considerations.  We just don't have the roster space and we are set on depth.

 

As for KJ--he is going to get groomed.  Watching film of that guy is awesome.  Like I said after the season ended and people were worried if we would re-sign him--Morey didn't give up Canaan for nothing.  In a year or two, every single team in the league will have fan boards clamoring for their team to trade for KJ McDaniels the same way fans clamored for Eric Bledsoe when he was in LA.

 

In a year or two, when that demand is at its peak, maybe Morey pulls the trigger.  Right now, he is ours.

 

As for the lack of a first round pick--I think that will be fine.  Once again, we have almost no roster space (first rounders get guaranteed contracts) and the lone slot we are likely to have will be slotted for a veteran on a minimum deal.

 

Our young guys are going to have to understand that they are being groomed by future NBA champions.  Take a year or two, learn from the best and then take over from there.  Christian Wood is not NBA ready so I am not worried about him.

no doubt we are in the same line of thinking when it comes to this subject.............TOTALLY AGREE and well stated. this is one of if not the deepest teams we have ever had IMO. another point ........if this team excels as we expect our first round draft pick is going to be #30.......dang near a second rounder, but with guaranteed money coming. fact is that pick simply isn't all that valuable so what's the fuss about losing that over? Morey doesn't need a 1st rounder next year and even if he had one I'm like JG......where is the roster spot coming from? tell you what.....think about this..... if the Rockets cut any player from their team  right now how long do you think he would be a free agent? even Terry was being chased by Dallas. we have that kind of talent all the way down to the 15th man. Morey has built a super team. we are not only talented. we are focus, we have the right mix of age, experience, and skillsets. what else can you ask? IMO you best get a good seat on the bang wagon before the crowd rushes in

[Losthief]

one thing to keep in mind with the cap jump, until the new cba the rookie scale increases are locked in through 2020-2021 at a much slower growth rate than the cap (assuming no changes via lockout/renegotiation). So 1st rounders are going to become very, very valuable in a few more years. Potentially you could see it reach the point where late 1sts, or even mid-1sts make less money than 2nd rounders will due to the market and amount of money out there.

Edited by Losthief, Yesterday, 01:50 AM.

[rockets best fan]

one thing to keep in mind with the cap jump, until the new cba the rookie scale increases are locked in through 2020-2021 at a much slower growth rate than the cap (assuming no changes via lockout/renegotiation). So 1st rounders are going to become very, very valuable in a few more years. Potentially you could see it reach the point where late 1sts, or even mid-1sts make less money than 2nd rounders will due to the market and amount of money out there.

the only way the pick is good is if the player selected is good. considering how the talent drops off in the draft as picks are taken Yes someone could find a diamond in the rough, but the likelihood of that happening simply isn't all that good in most years. the only way the player is a bargain is if he turn out to be something. players trapped on rookie deals whether 1st or 2nd rounder have long been considered valuable if they turn out to be something. granted that value will increase even more as the money rises, but has always been there. also I wouldn't count on that rookie scale staying that low beyond the next CBA. I'm sure that's one issue the players will want to address.

[thejohnnygold]

First, it appears the Rockets are filling out the training camp roster.  They have signed Will Cummings.  He appears to be this year's Ish Smith.  Very fast....can't shoot.

 

Dwight Howard's future with Houston is very difficult to speculate on and to pose the question as you did, TTDN,  shows your perspective--as did your previous comment about his trip to the airport.  That's fine, but there is a lot to consider.  Dwight is still an elite force who can dominate a game by simply being on the court.  Is he Cal Ripken Jr.?  No, but few are.  He will need rest, minute restrictions, games off, etc.  However, we saw what a rested Dwight can do in the playoffs this year.

 

 

It speaks for itself.  Try getting through the playoffs without a center.  (Heck, Cleveland was so desperate they traded 2 first round picks for Mozgov.)

 

The question is what does Dwight do at season's end?  Most believe he will opt out, but will he?  The money jumps significantly the following year and it's not like the near $23M he will earn by opting in is bad.  The decision to re-sign him (when it comes) will have to be made at that time--we can't look at it now because we have no idea how his knees will hold up.  If they do, then we will re-sign him.  If not, things get interesting.

 

The good news is if his legs fall off we will have a whole mess of cap space and a solid team from 1-4 to tempt potential replacements...oh, and Capela will be Captain of the Swat Team by then.  It wouldn't surprise me if he averages 4 blocks a game once he gets some minutes.  Clint and D-Mo will give us some leverage and keep Morey from doing something crazy like giving up 2 draft picks for Mozgov.

 

Looking ahead to the 2017 free agent center class is.....not good.  There is Dwight Howard and then a couple of RFA's who we will have zero chance of prying from their teams such as Rudy Gobert.  Maybe we could overpay for Steven Adams?

 

No, I think an older Dwight is still better.  Morey will likely work out a 2-3 year deal.  It won't be the end of the world.  The 2016 class offers little as well...a 30 year old Al Horford....31 year old Joakim Noah....

 

Small ball is a fad and somewhat of a myth.  Skill Ball is what is happening.  Golden State small-balled their way to the finals playing a 7' Bogut, 6' 11" Ezeli, and 6' 11" Speights.  People act like playing Draymond Green, who is 6' 7", at PF was some kind of revolutionary thing Kerr invented.  Charles Barkley is 6' 6" people.  It's not new.

 

Milwaukee, Golden State, and Indiana (before everyone got inured/left), and Houston have all shown it is length and speed that creates defense....and it needs a defensive anchor to work.  Imagine if Milwaukee had kept Larry Sanders and didn't have to roll with Zaza Pachulia (Nice pick up, Cuban  ).

 

As long as Dwight can run and jump he warrants a big paycheck.

 

As for the 1st rounders--absolutely they are worth their weight in gold.  We have all seen it first hand on our own team and on others.  Yet, context matters and our team, as of right now, simply has no room for unproven, not-NBA ready, guaranteed contracts.  Hinkie gets it.  Ainge gets it.  All the people laughing at what they are doing will be eating crow later (actually, they will just flip-flop and claim they were on board with their plan the whole time).

 

I don't think the new CBA will alter the rookie scale much.  It is a good deal for both parties and it protects teams from over-paying for bad scouting, freak injuries, and forced picks.  Let's face it, winning the title and then having to turn around and give the 30th best player in the draft a 4 year guaranteed deal kind of sucks.  Imagine if Philly had to pay Joel Embiid $16M/year based on his "Olajuwon Potential".

 

It was hurting the quality of the NBA product having so much money tied up in lousy players.  It's not changing.

 

Sigh....I still wish we had drafted Jerian Grant over Sam Dekker.  I hope he proves me wrong for thinking that.

[thejohnnygold]

Update: Just saw Feigen's post that Rockets are also bringing in Denzel Livingston, Remi Yusuf, and Chris Walker.

[timetodienow1234567]

if Dwight wants to maximize his potential he will opt out and sign a 1 year with a 1 year player option like Lebron has been doing. Then trying for a max deal in 2017. I think, barring a major injury, Morey will sign that first deal but will NOT sign the 200 for 5 years deal that Howard will likely ask for. This is the number for the % of salary cap that pundits have been talking about with Lebron.

As for Center, I think that DMo will ultimately man that position for us in the future with Capela manning the PF spot (defensively at least).

The weakness of our team is SF again with Lawson's addition. But luckily we can move Harden to the 3 if we need to and pick up a young SG like Beal.

I just don't think our roster is set for next year. This year there probably won't be any big moves since we don't have the pieces to get Cousins.

Edited by timetodienow1234567, Yesterday, 06:33 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

if Dwight wants to maximize his potential he will opt out and sign a 1 year with a 1 year player option like Lebron has been doing. Then trying for a max deal in 2017. I think, barring a major injury, Morey will sign that first deal but will NOT sign the 200 for 5 years deal that Howard will likely ask for. This is the number for the % of salary cap that pundits have been talking about with Lebron.

As for Center, I think that DMo will ultimately man that position for us in the future with Capela manning the PF spot (defensively at least).

The weakness of our team is SF again with Lawson's addition. But luckily we can move Harden to the 3 if we need to and pick up a young SG like Beal.

I just don't think our roster is set for next year. This year there probably won't be any big moves since we don't have the pieces to get Cousins.

 

That makes sense regarding Dwight's possible contract situation.  I also can see D-Mo taking over at center.

 

I disagree that SF is a weakness on our team.  Is it because we don't have a Paul George, Lebron, Kawhi, or Carmelo?  I like what we've got.  Ariza is an elite player in his own right--it's on defense.  His 3 pt% suffered last season due to playing too many minutes (injuries).  He shot 39% from deep after the all-star break.  His 3% increased with each extra day of rest he got.  With fewer back to backs this year we should see an uptick in his %'s plus Lawson will help set him up for better looks.  (Stats from basketball-reference.com)

 

Combined with Corey Brewer I think we're great at SF.  As you said, Harden can slide in there as well.  That's 3 starting caliber players at 1 position.  What's not to like?

 

I would argue our weakest position is PF....and I don't think we are weak at PF at all.

 

Next year will be interesting.  I have no doubt Morey would love to get Cousins, but it depends on a lot of things.  Too much to speculate on right now.  Besides, I want to see what happens this year before we start shuffling the roster for next year....getting ahead of ourselves a bit.

[Losthief]

Our weakest spot right now is still the same area it was last year. Shot creation, this whole position thing is useless imo. You have five guys out there doing different roles, not positions. Yes we are deeper in the creator role than before (especially last year), but its still our relatively weak spot. We have plenty of 3 and D wings (some more d or 3 respectively with KJ and Brew Crew). We have plenty of slashers/rebounders, plenty of rim protectors/dunkers, plenty of spot up shooters/slasher types, and plenty of rollers on the screen. We have two/three guys who can create there own good looks easily (Lawson, DMO, and Harden), but only 2 who can create for others effectively w/o plays/defensive mistakes (Harden and Lawson).

 

All that said, I think two is enough (assuming health), all I'm saying is it is still our weak/shallowest point from a role perspective which speaks more to our depth than anything negative imo.

Edited by Losthief, Yesterday, 11:30 PM.

[majik19]

I honestly think our weakness is just pure shooting (3 pt %'s from last year):

 

Terry - 39%

Harden - 37.5%

Motiejunas - 36.8%

Beverly - 35.6%

Jones - 35.1%

Ariza - 35%

Lawson - 34.1%

McDaniels - 28.7%

Brewer - 28.4%

 

None of these guys are knockdown shooters. Terry was 29th in the league with 39%. Harden's 37.5% puts him tied for 48th. And I don't expect Terry to play much this season. 

 

Hopefully, having Lawson will help bring up everyone's percentages, and playing with Harden will bring up his. If Ariza is fresher, hopefully his percentage will go up too. If we run into issues this year, I think it'll be because of our 3 pt shooting. High volume is great, but you have to shoot relatively well to make it worth it. 

[Losthief]

dwight shot 50 percent ....but yeah good point no sharp shooters, although I think harden, ariza, and terry from the corners qualify.

[Buckko]

On the 3pt%, I expect harden's, lawson's, ariza's, KJ's averages all go up due to various reasons. Ariza will play less minutes across the season, letting him put more energy into his shot. Lawson was his most accurate from long range his first years when playing with melo where he was taking a far more off the ball spot up 3s and shooting more from the corners. With him being able to play off of harden, his average should increase as would harden's playing off of lawson. KJ will improve from player development as sophomore year is a big jump.

 

Hopefully Dmo's, Jones', and Beverley's averages increase as well building upon their previous years with improvement and having another elite 3pt shot creator in lawson.

 

Terry's shot should be around the same.

Thorton should help raise our average.

Brewer's shot is crap, can't see that getting better.

Overall I expect our 3pt averages to majorly increase due to minutes being spread out more meaning less tired players and flat shots, internal player improvement, and most importantly having a 2nd absolute elite 3pt creator in lawson to get more open looks on the arc.

 

Fun fact last season, harden being number 1 and lawson 2nd led the rest the league by a wide margin in 3pt assists. Learn that from Lowe.

[rockets best fan]

Our weakest spot right now is still the same area it was last year. Shot creation, this whole position thing is useless imo. You have five guys out there doing different roles, not positions. Yes we are deeper in the creator role than before (especially last year), but its still our relatively weak spot. We have plenty of 3 and D wings (some more d or 3 respectively with KJ and Brew Crew). We have plenty of slashers/rebounders, plenty of rim protectors/dunkers, plenty of spot up shooters/slasher types, and plenty of rollers on the screen. We have two/three guys who can create there own good looks easily (Lawson, DMO, and Harden), but only 2 who can create for others effectively w/o plays/defensive mistakes (Harden and Lawson).

 

All that said, I think two is enough (assuming health), all I'm saying is it is still our weak/shallowest point from a role perspective which speaks more to our depth than anything negative imo.

before the Lawson trade I would have agreed, but with him on board and playing his game this will become a strength. I also expect the 3 pt % to climb on most of our players simply because they will have better looks on their attempts. if there is a weakness on this team (and I have to look pretty hard to find one) it would have to be .................................................................we don't have a weakness IMO   WE ARE  ABOUT TO KICK SOME SERIOUS BUTT