65 replies to this topic

[Mario Peña]

Oh Doug you are quite wrong though the cards haven't shown themselves entirely yet but it's okay as we all have our doubts at times. Come back in the playoffs and you can thank us then. Take good care and go Rockets!

[Sir Thursday]

Going to have to agree with Doug on the subject of variance. Bad defensive teams need high variance approaches, good defensive teams want low variance because they can bank on keeping their opponents to a low enough score that they don't need to gamble so much. 

 

On the other hand, I agree with GJ on there being a difference in this regard between the starters and the finishers. You can be much more tolerance of high variance approaches at the start of a game than at the end. It's only worth gambling late on if you are behind - in a close game with not many possessions left it's usually better to go with something that consistently produces positive results rather than something that either produces gems or trash and nothing in between.

 

Given the assertion that Josh Smith is a high-variance player, it would seem to follow that you can live with his approach early on in games but should probably not trust him in crunch time. That's my opinion of him too - I was dismayed to see him on the court at the end of the Bulls game.

 

ST

[thejohnnygold]

Going to have to agree with Doug on the subject of variance. Bad defensive teams need high variance approaches, good defensive teams want low variance because they can bank on keeping their opponents to a low enough score that they don't need to gamble so much. 

 

On the other hand, I agree with GJ on there being a difference in this regard between the starters and the finishers. You can be much more tolerance of high variance approaches at the start of a game than at the end. It's only worth gambling late on if you are behind - in a close game with not many possessions left it's usually better to go with something that consistently produces positive results rather than something that either produces gems or trash and nothing in between.

 

Given the assertion that Josh Smith is a high-variance player, it would seem to follow that you can live with his approach early on in games but should probably not trust him in crunch time. That's my opinion of him too - I was dismayed to see him on the court at the end of the Bulls game.

 

ST

 

Agreed.  I didn't address it in response to Doug, but the good team/bad team variance divide is very true.  That being said, I think every team needs/wants that wild card, microwave, whatever you want to call it.  They can be dangerous--both for you and your opponent.  Think Jamal Crawford, JR Smith, JJ Barea, Gerald Green, and even Jeff Green (who is coveted by Memphis right now).

 

On any given night, you stack up your "consistent" guys against the other team's "consistent" guys and often, in the NBA, it's a wash.  What's next?  How good is your wild card?  I would argue that as much as Dirk did to get the Mavs a championship, JJ Barea was also a huge component.  When Dirk sat, it was Barea that would come in and just KILL teams.  Heck, to this day Steven hasn't forgiven Eric Spoelstra for that.

 

Take Gerald Green.  When he shoots 50%+ the Suns are 11-2.  When he shoots 40% or less they are 7-10.  That's a big swing for a 6th man who averages 22 mpg.

 

Where Josh Smith differs from most of those guys, in my opinion, is his defensive consistency.  I think the ultimate goal is to focus his offensive contributions to play off of Harden, Howard, and Motie and to utilize his play-making to ease Harden's burden and keep defenses more honest when they hone in on James.  Meanwhile, he can help on the defensive end and, overall, have a positive effect on the team.

 

As of now, I agree that Smith is not ideal for closing out games.  Personally, I think James and D-Mo should be playing an inside-out game down the stretch alongside Bev, Howard, and one of Ariza/Brewer.  I'm pretty sure I'm not alone in that sentiment.  Smith presents too many risks between his iffy shot selection, lack of clock management, and I-can't-bear-to-watch passes that may or may not find a receiving team mate to get minutes down the stretch in tight games where each possession is magnified in value.

 

Like you said, ST, using him to span the 1st-2nd quarters and 3rd-4th quarters is ideal.  Also, by spending more time against (lesser) bench guys it should skew his %'s up towards the good end.

[Losthief]

See I see it differently as towards variance.

 

Variance is good on offense and bad on defense.

 

Josh Smith is high variance on offense and low-variance on defense.

 

Additionally the same can be said for Ariza (he's 3pt shooting percentage), Bev, Brewer, et al we have acquired and or kept since changing philosophy last year.

 

I would say Parsons, Daniels, and Lin (players we've let go/traded) represented the opposite, lower-variance on offense, higher-variance on defense. The obvious exception being Asik, a very dependable/consistent defender but he demanded out.

 

I think you always want low variance on defense for consistent production and having a high enough variance on offense will allow you to win enough games to compete for championship. Even Lebron can't win on his own (as we have seen borne out). I would argue that this is what you see on the Spurs, what we call their 'system' allowing for everyone to shine including the bench is really a collection of low variance dependable defenders who each offer a chance (high-variance) of offense explosion (a la Danny Green in the part of the finals, Kwahi in the last 4/5 games of the finals last year) that enables you to win games. 

 

Again the above must be built around consistent players like Harden and Howard (and perhaps Dmo) to provide some stability, but I believe role/bench players having a high-variance offense is fine.

 

Just a thought of mine.

Edited by Losthief, 09 January 2015 - 10:21 PM.

[SadLakerFan]

If Smith is willing to come off the bench, he can be a very valuable piece in the playoffs.  On nights when T. Jones is being dominated, getting Smith in just to stop the momentum will be huge.  At this point, assuming a healthy Jones and Howard, this is a contender.

[Steven]

If Smith is willing to come off the bench, he can be a very valuable piece in the playoffs. On nights when T. Jones is being dominated, getting Smith in just to stop the momentum will be huge. At this point, assuming a healthy Jones and Howard, this is a contender.

Smith is he one who told McHale that he wanted to come off the bench. He didn't have a spot in the starters offense. Felt more comfortable in the second unit where he can be the first/second option.

[thejohnnygold]

Smith is he one who told McHale that he wanted to come off the bench. He didn't have a spot in the starters offense. Felt more comfortable in the second unit where he can be the first/second option.

 

Indeed.  I can't find it, but there was a small article that came out at the time where Smith stated he never said he would only go to a team that would let him start.  That it was made up by the media.  The same media that made up the lie saying Houston promised him the starting spot.  Why believe Houston's side of it and not Josh's?

[Losthief]

Outside of random media (and usually non-insiders) I have never heard anything bad about Josh's attitude, especially off the court. (you can look this up as I brought up josh as a trade option last year and when someone said he was a bad teammate/person nothing was turned up as evidence though). On the court he doesn't always make great decisions but the dude played for SEASONS (successfully) with iso joe and never complained, I really don't think he'll start now.

[cointurtlemoose]

I really want to keep giving him the benefit of the doubt, because it's obvious that he's trying to fulfill a role he's never really had before in his career. And I'm still willing to do that, 11 games in.

 

But more and more I'm beginning to think that he's just not going to fit very well...

[adonneus]

A few recent thought's I've had about Smith...

 

During the OKC game last night, the TNT announcers said that McHale has been telling Smoove to shoot the threes if he's open. The thinking behind this would be that everyone else on our team outside of Dwight, Dorsey, and sometimes D-Mo is going to do the same, so it keeps the team consistent, causing defenders to spread out as we want them to.

 

I wonder if the thinking is not that it is efficient for him to take those shots from a points-per-Smith-3 perspective. If he hits one or two threes in a game, the defense will be more likely to spread out to cover him, opening up the lanes inside. A reason that McHale might not be content to keep Smith down low and allow the paint to stay clogged is to allow the Rockets to have some flexibility in their style.

 

We'll likely have at least one of Dwight/D-Mo/Smith out there at all times. If Dwight is out there, he'll be in the post. With D-Mo's post proficiency, we're going to want him down there a lot, too. If we restrict Smith to being solely down-low or driving, his defender is going to stay in or near the paint, meaning that we'll never have a line-up that truly leaves the paint open for our non-Harden drivers to get in there. If Smith's shooting 3s leads to the paint's being more open for Papa, Brewer, and Smith himself to drive, it may be worth the poor percentage.

 

Also, I think it was the article on Grantland about Harden and Morey being the future of the NBA that mentioned that we are trying to shoot shots that generate rebounds. JG said on the Orlando game thread that Brewer once passed to Smith, told him to shoot the 3, and quickly ran inside to get the rebound. If this is a focus when he shoots those 3s, it helps to decrease the negative impact of the misses.

 

Finally, a quote from McHale on Smith: "He’s been great for us. I only judge people on my experiences with them. He’s been fantastic."

 

It sounds like McHale is fully open to experimentation when it comes to Smith's role on the team. It has been said since the beginning of the season that, generally, seeding will not be important in the West, so I could see McHale willing to sacrifice a few games here and there in order to work on getting the right formula down once the playoffs come around.

 

Every bad loss and poor Josh Smith game is just another experiment that very likely will not get us kicked out of the playoffs. I think that in the past, McHale has always been willing to go back on experiments if they're not working (Dwight/Asik twin towers, Lin starting, Smith starting, any player being part of the rotation, bringing players up from the D-League).

 

"Test everything; hold fast to what is good." But as long as we make the playoffs, no reason to stop testing until March/April.

[Alituro]

 

 

Also, I think it was the article on Grantland about Harden and Morey being the future of the NBA that mentioned that we are trying to shoot shots that generate rebounds. JG said on the Orlando game thread that Brewer once passed to Smith, told him to shoot the 3, and quickly ran inside to get the rebound. If this is a focus when he shoots those 3s, it helps to decrease the negative impact of the misses.

 

 

Good points all the way through.

 

I think the expected return off of a missed shot is something that goes wholly overlooked when casual fans discuss analytics. One sure thing is that there are open shots available after a scramble for a rebound. Another sure thing is that we have the rebounding edge at just about every position including our back court hustlers like Harden, Ariza, Bev and Brewer. So if they have a greater than 50% chance of getting the rebound off their opponent especially on a long missed three, what is the expected return of that possession including the chance that the shot actually goes in? IDK, but I bet I know of somebody who does. I also bet that's a huge reason why coaching is OK with Smith's occasional chucking up of shots. Is it really all that terrible? The algorithm needed to figure that out has got to be pretty nasty.

[rocketrick]

If Smith is willing to come off the bench, he can be a very valuable piece in the playoffs.  On nights when T. Jones is being dominated, getting Smith in just to stop the momentum will be huge.  At this point, assuming a healthy Jones and Howard, this is a contender.

 

The longer this season goes forward with Terrance Jones rehabbing, the less I see him getting meaningful minutes going forward. Motiejunas has clearly earned being a starter on this team and continues to improve and gain additional confidence with every minute of experience.

 

Josh Smith thus far has been a positive, in my mind, although there will always be those cringeworthy moments. Still, I believe Josh's positives do outweigh his negatives and the bench has been significantly improved with the additions of Josh Smith and Corey Brewer. Their energy level is up there which is precisely what is required and necessary for the Rockets to have any hope of success to go deep in their playoff run.

[thejohnnygold]

Good points all the way through.

 

I think the expected return off of a missed shot is something that goes wholly overlooked when casual fans discuss analytics. One sure thing is that there are open shots available after a scramble for a rebound. Another sure thing is that we have the rebounding edge at just about every position including our back court hustlers like Harden, Ariza, Bev and Brewer. So if they have a greater than 50% chance of getting the rebound off their opponent especially on a long missed three, what is the expected return of that possession including the chance that the shot actually goes in? IDK, but I bet I know of somebody who does. I also bet that's a huge reason why coaching is OK with Smith's occasional chucking up of shots. Is it really all that terrible? The algorithm needed to figure that out has got to be pretty nasty.

 

This snippet is from that recent Grantland article about Moreyball.  It talks about this very thing.  Considering we are the #1 team in both total Off. rebounds and Off. Rebounding % it seems Morey knows exactly what he's doing.

 

 

 

As of January 1, Harden’s close-range field goal percentage ranked a mediocre 21st within a group of 27 NBA players who had attempted at least 200 shots within eight feet of the hoop. But a closer examination reveals that, incredibly, the Rockets retrieve a ridiculous 55 percent of Harden’s close-range misses, which is by far the highest share for any volume shooter in the league. Put another way: Harden converts only 54 percent of his interior chances, but when you consider that freakish offensive rebounding rate, a whopping 79 percent of his close-range attempts result in either a bucket or a fresh 24 for his team.

 

LINK

 

Here is another snippet from an article (an older one) about Moreyball.  Interesting insight into his perspective.

 

 

 

To turn something from a 52 percent probability of success into a 54 percent probability of success with no added cost is a huge victory of strategy. Yet there is a 46 percent chance it will fail, and in that case, it is important to trust the process not the result.

 

LINK

[thejohnnygold]

Here is another oldie, but goodie. LINK

 

It's an article about Battier and Moreyball.  This snippet, he is talking about how it is difficult for basketball players to play completely unselfishly because they have their own selfish interests (mostly getting paid as much as possible) which are usually based off of box score stats.

 

 

 

When I ask Morey if he can think of any basketball statistic that can’t benefit a player at the expense of his team, he has to think hard. “Offensive rebounding,” he says, then reverses himself. “But even that can be counterproductive to the team if your job is to get back on defense.” It turns out there is no statistic that a basketball player accumulates that cannot be amassed selfishly. “We think about this deeply whenever we’re talking about contractual incentives,” he says. “We don’t want to incent a guy to do things that hurt the team” — and the amazing thing about basketball is how easy this is to do. “They all maximize what they think they’re being paid for,” he says. He laughs. “It’s a tough environment for a player now because you have a lot of teams starting to think differently. They’ve got to rethink how they’re getting paid.”

[Mario Peña]

A few recent thought's I've had about Smith...
 
During the OKC game last night, the TNT announcers said that McHale has been telling Smoove to shoot the threes if he's open. The thinking behind this would be that everyone else on our team outside of Dwight, Dorsey, and sometimes D-Mo is going to do the same, so it keeps the team consistent, causing defenders to spread out as we want them to.
 
I wonder if the thinking is not that it is efficient for him to take those shots from a points-per-Smith-3 perspective. If he hits one or two threes in a game, the defense will be more likely to spread out to cover him, opening up the lanes inside. A reason that McHale might not be content to keep Smith down low and allow the paint to stay clogged is to allow the Rockets to have some flexibility in their style.
 
We'll likely have at least one of Dwight/D-Mo/Smith out there at all times. If Dwight is out there, he'll be in the post. With D-Mo's post proficiency, we're going to want him down there a lot, too. If we restrict Smith to being solely down-low or driving, his defender is going to stay in or near the paint, meaning that we'll never have a line-up that truly leaves the paint open for our non-Harden drivers to get in there. If Smith's shooting 3s leads to the paint's being more open for Papa, Brewer, and Smith himself to drive, it may be worth the poor percentage.
 
Also, I think it was the article on Grantland about Harden and Morey being the future of the NBA that mentioned that we are trying to shoot shots that generate rebounds. JG said on the Orlando game thread that Brewer once passed to Smith, told him to shoot the 3, and quickly ran inside to get the rebound. If this is a focus when he shoots those 3s, it helps to decrease the negative impact of the misses.
 
Finally, a quote from McHale on Smith: "He’s been great for us. I only judge people on my experiences with them. He’s been fantastic."
 
It sounds like McHale is fully open to experimentation when it comes to Smith's role on the team. It has been said since the beginning of the season that, generally, seeding will not be important in the West, so I could see McHale willing to sacrifice a few games here and there in order to work on getting the right formula down once the playoffs come around.
 
Every bad loss and poor Josh Smith game is just another experiment that very likely will not get us kicked out of the playoffs. I think that in the past, McHale has always been willing to go back on experiments if they're not working (Dwight/Asik twin towers, Lin starting, Smith starting, any player being part of the rotation, bringing players up from the D-League).
 
"Test everything; hold fast to what is good." But as long as we make the playoffs, no reason to stop testing until March/April.

This is the best thing I have seen written about Smith and how he fits the Rockets offensive philosophies.

[adonneus]

Here is another oldie, but goodie. LINK

 

It's an article about Battier and Moreyball.  This snippet, he is talking about how it is difficult for basketball players to play completely unselfishly because they have their own selfish interests (mostly getting paid as much as possible) which are usually based off of box score stats.

 

That article was so good! Very interesting to hear about Morey's beginnings and a how he was able to exemplify his philosophy through the like-minded Battier.

[thejohnnygold]

Woj just sat down with Josh Smith and wrote a nice little article about him.  LINK

 

I enjoy pieces like this because, as fans, it is easy to forget that, ultimately, these are people just like us.  Josh Smith isn't perfect (who is?), but I've enjoyed having him on the team.

[Alituro]

Nice Piece TJG!

 

How much more important is Smith's acquisition with Howard sidelined? Exponentially, I believe. If we were forced to run out a 4-man post rotation of Jones, Dmo, Dorsey, (Capela, Pap, who knows?), our future would be many times more bleak than just inserting Smoove in that last place. We would struggle to win above .500 through that stretch, slipped down in the standings and would be struggling to claim the 8th seed in this hefty conference. Smith's addition alone is what will keep us relevant in the coming months.

[thejohnnygold]

Nice Piece TJG!

 

How much more important is Smith's acquisition with Howard sidelined? Exponentially, I believe. If we were forced to run out a 4-man post rotation of Jones, Dmo, Dorsey, (Capela, Pap, who knows?), our future would be many times more bleak than just inserting Smoove in that last place. We would struggle to win above .500 through that stretch, slipped down in the standings and would be struggling to claim the 8th seed in this hefty conference. Smith's addition alone is what will keep us relevant in the coming months.

 

Perhaps.  If we didn't get Smith we'd still have Tarik Black who was playing very well for a rookie.  His defense is rookie-ish, but he made lots of plays on both ends of the floor and even flashed some nifty post moves as well as some superior offensive rebounding.  It might not have been that bleak.

 

That being said, I agree that having Smith over Black is definitely a big defensive upgrade.

[thejohnnygold]

I keep dragging this thread back to life, but I didn't want to start a new one just for this and it is relevant.  I presume many saw/heard Barkley go off on Morey and analytics last night, but if not here is the video.

 

 

My favorite part is that, as prompted, Barkley responds to Morey's assertion that he "spews misinformed biased vitriol disguised as entertainment" by spewing misinformed biased vitriol disguised as entertainment.

 

Also, I don't think Shaq knows what "vitriol" means.

 

 

The only thing I disagree with Morey on is that I still find Chuck entertaining...in all his glory.

 

Also, since we're in the Josh Smith thread...since moving to the bench he is shooting 39% from deep, 46% overall, and is putting up per36 numbers of roughly 18 pts, 9 rebs, and 4 assists with a block and a steal.  Somehow, despite all evidence to the contrary, Morey saw through to the good Josh Smith...