33 replies to this topic

[Steven]

Rahat = the lawyer.

[NorEastern]

You guys are killing me right now.  lol.  

 

NorEastern: Always open for that.  

Would you perhaps give me a place I can deposit posts? I am sitting on megabytes of graphs, tables and the like.

[Losthief]

Yeah im excited about josh smith too, with dmo, smith, and howard we have 3 of the top 20 in defense at the rim stats, so literally two guys on the floor (usually) with good defense at the rim. Hope we can fix his offense a bit....someone on grantland mentioned he might need glasses or something as a joke but i can't stop thinking of wild thing now with charlie sheen.

[thejohnnygold]

Would you perhaps give me a place I can deposit posts? I am sitting on megabytes of graphs, tables and the like.

 

New posts can be created any time from any of the Forums.  Just choose the appropriate forum and click the button on the right that says "Start New Topic".  You can put whatever graphics/videos you like in with the editing interface.

 

Bring on the data 

[Red94]

New post: The day after Christmas: thoughts on the Houston Rockets' acquisition of Josh Smith
By: Rahat Huq

I was going to throw up some thoughts yesterday, as promised on Twitter, but it was Christmas so I didn't feel like doing anything.  But here's the post.  Where do I begin?  If you hadn't already, check out our roundtable from a few days ago before the news became official.  I don't know if the guys have changed their opinion, but I for one am absolutely stoked.  I'll get into that in a bit.

 

To start off, I still remain disappointed about the procedural aspects of the move.  Reportedly, Motiejunas will be moving to the bench as a starting spot assurance was what was needed to clinch the deal.  I don't know how I feel about the cultural precedents that sets to banish a guy who held down the fort in the most desperate of times upon news of a new addition.  What does it say about rewarding hard work and improvement?  Still, it was the correct move.  Idealism goes out the window in professional sports, and talent rules the day.  If guaranteeing Josh Smith a starting spot was what it took to get him to commit, as much as I don't like it, it was an absolute no-brainer for the Rockets.  Motiejunas will just have to suck it up and double down with the second unit.  He must realize that if he continues his current rate of production, on a team that could play into June, he will stand to earn riches beyond his wildest dreams on his next contract.  He also will be the early favorite to win the spot in camp going into next season as Smith's situation will be up in the air.

 

Onto Smith: it's funny how life plays out sometimes.  By all accounts, Houston had hoped to pair Smith and Dwight Howard with James Harden back in the summer of Dwight, dangling Omer Asik in sign&trades.  Nothing worked out, and now, the Rockets have Smith at a bargain rate, but also the Pelicans' lottery pick fetched in the Asik trade with which to make a future upgrade.  Daryl Morey must be ecstatic, presuming he believes that Smith has maintained the abilities that made him desirable in the past.

 

Still not yet 30, I refuse to believe that Josh Smith has deteriorated so drastically that he cannot regain the production that made him one of the most versatile defenders in the league.  System and fit matters and he was playing horribly out of position in Detroit. Houston now boasts a frontline in Howard, Smith, and Trevor Ariza that is as long and athletic as any other in the league, opening up worlds of possibilities for Kevin McHale and his staff.  Will they use Smith now to more aggressively trap on pick and rolls, with Dwight looming at the rim to clean anything up?  Throw in Patrick Beverley and the recently acquired Corey Brewer and Houston has the option to really dial it up defensively and make things difficult for opponents.  As someone who finds defense beautiful, these are exciting times.

 

The challenge will be on offense where Smith has been known to make less than intelligent decisions in his career.  But is he any worse than incumbent Terrence Jones?  At least Josh Smith can pass.  As forum moderator Mario Pena pointed out recently, Smith fits better with the starters because he won't have free rein under Harden's watch.  There are less opportunities to chuck up shots, and the ones he does, you can live with in the aggregate.

 

At the end of the day, at the cost they got him, this was an absolute no-brainer for the Rockets.  The one thing you need to win big in the NBA is talent and Houston has it now in abundance.  Smith has his warts, sure.  But in the years since '97, how many times have the Rockets gone into a playoff series where you just thought, "man, we just don't have the bodies to compete with these guys athletically."  That won't be the case anymore, this year.  We might go down because of poor decisions, lack of strategy, or many other reasons.  But it won't be for a lack of bodies.

 

Lastly, Houston doesn't lose last year against Portland if its Josh Smith guarding LaMarcus Aldridge instead of Terrence Jones.  You can count on that.  The irony is that in many ways, Josh Smith is the realization of Terrence Jones' basketball destiny.  He is the best-case scenario for Jones, and now the Rockets have him.  They can now let Jones recover on his own timetable rather than shipping him out for pennies on the dollar in search of immediate help.

[NorEastern]

Nice article yet again Mr. Huq. I was actually thinking that this Rockets team looked like a possible 60 win team with three starters out. They went 8-3 with an extremely depleted roster. D-Mo's growth has been phenomenal. This is courtesy of TDS

 

 

I honestly cannot find a hole in the Rockets roster. Any bench in the NBA that has D-Mo will be one of the best benches in the league. He makes that much of a difference on offense and defense. Harden is resting and you need offense? D-Mo post ups to the rescue. I am honestly getting serious acid reflux if neither Howard or D-Mo is patrolling the paint. Howard, Smith, D-Mo and the possibility of Jones coming back makes the Rockets front court perhaps the best in the game. In addition the Rockets will feature a top five defender at the 1, 3, 4 and 5 spots. Number two in defense of the NBA today? Two weeks and they will be number one.

 

I am completely OK with sending D-Mo to the bench. IMHO D-Mo will still be seeing 30 minutes of floor time a game. Papa, and Jones when he returns, are going to be the odd men out. That is not fair, but it is life in the NBA. A three man rotation of Howard, Smith and D-Mo just makes to much sense. Play any two together and you will have one of the best front courts in the NBA. Professional sports is all about winning.

 

I believe that the front court rotation is set for the rest of the year. What I find interesting is the possible wing rotations. The addition of Brewer and Shved into the mix should be interesting. Brewer looks to me like a natural fit. Shved I don't have an opinion about yet. However with Bev, Harden, Ariza, Canaan,  Brewer, Papa and Schved the possibilities are endless. I feel sure that both Morey and McHale are sitting at their desks just feeling warm and calm at this moment. And that is not from the tryptophan in their turkey. Morey has yet again outdone himself. Smith at no cost! Unfrickinbelievable. Onward to a ring Rockets fans!

[Jatman20]

Often in today's NBA the player drafted starts to develop just in time to be a free agent....and then they move on. The Rockets and Morey are becoming the training grounds for good NBA players. Starting with a great D-league organization and then moving to the NBA club recognizing and deciphering hidden talent(s). The Rockets have a formidable starting-5 and balance throughout the backups if the playoffs were to start today. D12-Harden and now hopefully Josh attacking the rim will get us in the penalty early every game; which translates to all players getting free throws early. The offense will consist of 1) FT's with a lot of buckets and ones 2) steady diet of hook shots from D12/DMo/Josh; which sets up our slashers (Ariza/Brewer/Papanikolaou) 3) which set our 3 point shot. 4) Harden scoring from everywhere and by ISO. Josh knows he is on probation.....Rockets were selling him on an opportunity to restore his good name as a player in this league. Josh got the message from SVG with Detroit to shoot less 3's this year.....to the tune of about 1.3 attempts (or something like that) per game. Only problem was trying to attack the rim as a SF with the lane clogged by the guys Drummond and Monroe brought to the paint. The offense will be fine and the defense will be great. The fast break will be exciting to watch with wings like Ariza and Brewer and Harden taking off as Josh throws touchdown passes off the defensive rebounds or blocked shots. In the playoffs when fast break points are decreased......the low post hook shot will rule. D12 was outstanding vs Portland in last years playoffs....now we add Josh on the low post with the emergence of D-Mo as a low post threat. Houston, the league has a problem......Us.

[cointurtlemoose]

Agreed about DMo still seeing at least 25 min, and I see his role with second/alternative units, in theory, as actually more important than it was as our starting PF. Hopefully the move to 6th man doesn't rattle him out of the awesome groove he's been in.

 

Okay wow I think I've finally come around on the Smith signing! I'm excited now. It could/might still not work, but I'm seeing that this low risk gamble has too big of an upside not to take.

 

Seems like Jones' future here is intertwined with the quality of Smith's fit, and that there could very well still be a deal in the works if Smith fits well.

[NorEastern]

Often in today's NBA the player drafted starts to develop just in time to be a free agent....and then they move on. The Rockets and Morey are becoming the training grounds for good NBA players. Starting with a great D-league organization and then moving to the NBA club recognizing and deciphering hidden talent(s). The Rockets have a formidable starting-5 and balance throughout the backups if the playoffs were to start today. D12-Harden and now hopefully Josh attacking the rim will get us in the penalty early every game; which translates to all players getting free throws early. The offense will consist of 1) FT's with a lot of buckets and ones 2) steady diet of hook shots from D12/DMo/Josh; which sets up our slashers (Ariza/Brewer/Papanikolaou) 3) which set our 3 point shot. 4) Harden scoring from everywhere and by ISO. Josh knows he is on probation.....Rockets were selling him on an opportunity to restore his good name as a player in this league. Josh got the message from SVG with Detroit to shoot less 3's this year.....to the tune of about 1.3 attempts (or something like that) per game. Only problem was trying to attack the rim as a SF with the lane clogged by the guys Drummond and Monroe brought to the paint. The offense will be fine and the defense will be great. The fast break will be exciting to watch with wings like Ariza and Brewer and Harden taking off as Josh throws touchdown passes off the defensive rebounds or blocked shots. In the playoffs when fast break points are decreased......the low post hook shot will rule. D12 was outstanding vs Portland in last years playoffs....now we add Josh on the low post with the emergence of D-Mo as a low post threat. Houston, the league has a problem......Us.

An excellent post and an intuitive look inside the Rockets rotation that I had not considered. Thank you for your insight!

[NorEastern]

I would like to point out that the Rockets second string is probably the best in the league. Canaan, Brewer, Papa, Jones and D-Mo make the playoffs in the Leastern conference. And for the most part they are young. Unfortunately Morey has some difficult contract decisions staring him in the face.

[clydesmoustache]

I wish we could have convinced him to sign for two years! Sign Dragic in the off season and have the best frontcourt and backcourt in the Nba!

[Red94]

Would you perhaps give me a place I can deposit posts? I am sitting on megabytes of graphs, tables and the like.

Shoot me an email and we can have something arranged.

[NorEastern]

Often in today's NBA the player drafted starts to develop just in time to be a free agent....and then they move on. The Rockets and Morey are becoming the training grounds for good NBA players. Starting with a great D-league organization and then moving to the NBA club recognizing and deciphering hidden talent(s). The Rockets have a formidable starting-5 and balance throughout the backups if the playoffs were to start today. D12-Harden and now hopefully Josh attacking the rim will get us in the penalty early every game; which translates to all players getting free throws early. The offense will consist of 1) FT's with a lot of buckets and ones 2) steady diet of hook shots from D12/DMo/Josh; which sets up our slashers (Ariza/Brewer/Papanikolaou) 3) which set our 3 point shot. 4) Harden scoring from everywhere and by ISO. Josh knows he is on probation.....Rockets were selling him on an opportunity to restore his good name as a player in this league. Josh got the message from SVG with Detroit to shoot less 3's this year.....to the tune of about 1.3 attempts (or something like that) per game. Only problem was trying to attack the rim as a SF with the lane clogged by the guys Drummond and Monroe brought to the paint. The offense will be fine and the defense will be great. The fast break will be exciting to watch with wings like Ariza and Brewer and Harden taking off as Josh throws touchdown passes off the defensive rebounds or blocked shots. In the playoffs when fast break points are decreased......the low post hook shot will rule. D12 was outstanding vs Portland in last years playoffs....now we add Josh on the low post with the emergence of D-Mo as a low post threat. Houston, the league has a problem......Us.

I actually reread your post and am stunned again by your insights. Please do keep up the good work. There are several things you wrote that I am just kicking myself in the butt because I did not think of them first.

[NorEastern]

Shoot me an email and we can have something arranged.

I will do that. I turn off the forums from the week before the playoffs start until the second week of the NBA season. I cannot stand the moaning, the hand wringing and the self flagellation. But I do always collect data. The narrative surrounding the data I do find much more difficult. I am, to be honest, a math and algorithm sort of guy. But I will muddle through. Best to you and everyone on the forum.