59 replies to this topic

[Alituro]

I wouldn't touch our starting 5 for any of the names thrown around in previous posts. Not Horford, Rondo, or Millsap. Right now the lineage is clear: 1st and 2nd option Dwight and Harden. 3rd option: Ariza in the corner. 4th option: Beverley/Canaan in the opposite corner. 5th Option: Jones in the corner or at clean-up off a jacked up shot. These roles are clear! Not one of the 3 thrown out there as an "all-in" option are going to be happy, or even capable (if you stick Rondo in a corner (Bev is a better shooter)) taking on those last two offensive roles. Horford and Millsap are ambitious and on the rise,and have solidified themselves as strong primary options (on lesser teams). To me, this would put us in a similar situation as last season with Lin and Asik, trying to fit square pegs in round holes (one of Millsap's greatest strengths is his midrange shot... Hence, Not A Rocket!). Or in the case with Parsons, where he has a nice skillset but is missing one aspect that would make him perfect for our squad (Defense, like Ariza (luckily) brings). So we fixed the problems by replacing our square peg members with rounder pegs and 3 solid round peg rotation guys off the bench in Terry, Papa and Canaan (Sorry Dmo, can't count you in this group yet). Our Achilles heel last year was defense, but now we have Harden coming fresh off a summer learning from two of the best defensive coaches the world has known, and vocal vets who play good defense in Terry and Ariza. Even though it's only Snack-Pack size right now, the proof is in the pudding with our margins of victory so far. Jones and Bev have spent 3 years on the Rockets lathe and now, with little exception, they are fitting nicely into their holes. TJ has all the attributes to be a good defender at the 4, and I'm betting he learns it this year, especially if Harden, Howard and Ariza continue to lead by example. Anybody coming in to replace either will have to spend time on the same lathe before maximum effectiveness is attained. 

 

 

I like Thompson, the nuggets have some interesting guys like Gallo/Arthur/wilson chandler, as do the bucks illy/mayo/middleton, philly Wroten/Mcdaniels/sims. Not stars or even likely starters but to pick up solid bench guys for relatively cheap if we can't land a home run deal.

 

This is the most sensible proposition I've seen in this thread. This is where Morey's genius gets the best of us again. What we need most are insurance policies against a H or H injury, a young 1st or 2nd year wing or big that analytics shows has potential in this league and are buried somewhere in the dregs of the league. McDaniels in Philly is a good example. I don't know who the guy or guys are, but Morey does, rest assured. This is a player that is in place to only help us keep our heads above water in the case of an injury disaster, just a guy who can fill the space, and chew gum and walk at the same time (sorry Dmo). Same young prospect(s)  will spend time on the Rockets lathe too and may have potential to edge his way into the rotation eventually. Capela could even be one of those guys, who knows but Dork Elvis himself?

 

I thought all these boring-ass trade discussions would wane once the season started, and especially after a roll such that we are on. But, alas, I'm beginning to realize that a lot of people are more fans from a transactions viewpoint than of the sport itself (a predictable result of the rise in popularity of Fantasy Sports... (Fantasy, folks)). If the league is SO wide open, the time for us to win is NOW, guys... NOW!

[timetodienow1234567]

We have enough to win a championship if were rolling on all cylinders. We would have very little margin of error if we stand pat.

[Alituro]

We have enough to win a championship if were rolling on all cylinders. We would have very little margin of error if we stand pat.

 

Shoring up and rounding out our bench isn't standing pat. Showing what they are capable of achieving, it wouldn't be wise to mess with the starting 5, especially if it comes by trading only for a second-tier star like the ones supposedly available. Especially if they are essentially replacing an identical skillset (Horford vs Jones) or their best skills don't translate well to our play style (Rondo can't shoot 3s and Millsap is Mr. Mid-range).

[timetodienow1234567]

Horford has an identical skillset to Jones????
Okay.

[Alituro]

Horford has an identical skillset to Jones????
Okay.

Oh yeah, I forgot, because you said so, then it must be true. Please don't shrug off a claim of mine without evidence. Here let me do the legwork for you, please take a minute and show me where in the stats there is this huge difference between the two, keep in mind, we're talking about 1st vs 5th options on offense too. Oh and check out Horford's Playoff stats last season. (From Basketball-reference.com)

 

This Season

www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=joneste01&y1=2015&p2=horfoal01&y2=2015#per_minute::none

 

Last Season

http://www.basketbal...er_minute::none

 

Physiology:

Horford: 6'10" 250lbs.

Jones: 6'9" 252lbs

 

Please point out where there's some HUGE  difference between the two that's immediately going to loft us into contention. I'll be waiting..

[timetodienow1234567]

I never said anything about Horford that would loft us into contention. That's your words. I just scoffed at saying they have similar skillsets and inferring that they were basically the same player. I think that's highly disrespectful to Horford.

 

1.) Horford is a hybrid PF/C that plays both extremely well. Jones on the other hand is a PF only(some speculated that he might play some SF, but I haven't seen much of that). 

 

2.) Horford is a two-time all star, whereas Jones, well..... Horford was also an All-NBA 3rd team player once.

 

3.) Horford's true shooting percentage is 57%. Jones' is 57%. That is equal, which is not great for Jones. Jones shots are wide open, whereas you so adroitly pointed out that Horford is usually the number 1 or 2 option on the team not the 5th option that Jones is.

 

4.) In the playoffs, Horford's TS% drops to 51.7%, while Jones drops to 48.6%. Neither are that great, but some dropoff is to be expected.

 

5.) Jones is putting up decent numbers as the fifth option, but he's not on par with Horford.

 

I could compare stats all day, but if you believe that Jones is on par with Horford, there's no point.

 

All of the stats say that Horford with an inferior team as the one player who is usually double teamed can put up better numbers. 

 

We would be a better team with Horford over Jones imo. We would get better defensively(as we would stagger his minutes with Howard to have 48 minutes of rim protection), while not losing much, if any, offensively since we're still not sure if Jones can consistently hit threes.(He's hit 3-7 so far this year). 

 

Also, you said to check out Horford's stats from the playoffs last year, did he play in the playoffs? I remember him being hurt. I could be wrong, but I think Pero Antic got the minutes at C.

 

But the cost that it would take to get Horford (Which I don't believe we can) would be detrimental to our team. 

 

I'm sure you thing Patrick Beverley is the same player as CP3 or Rondo. And Papa is similar to Lebron. Let's not go crazy with comparisons here.

[thejohnnygold]

I'm liking this conversation, but let's remember to keep things civil and not let them get personal and snarky, please.

 

I agree with Alituro in keeping our starting 5.  I am merely playing along with the idea of trades and looking at what Morey would likely be looking at--PG and PF and then what's available.  Don't judge our penchant for roster shuffling 

 

I also agree with the idea that bench building should really be the focus and I like Steven's idea of Brandon Bass and Cooper's mention of Jason Thompson works too--except that what we lack, more than anything, is any kind of defensive force at PF and int he WC the more of that we can get the better.  Thompson is not that guy and I'm not overly familiar with Bass' defensive prowess--I'm guessing he is about average.

 

I understand that Evans is essentially a net zero on offense (aside from offensive rebounding), but I still think he would bring some value in the playoffs with 6 hard fouls, hustle plays, and generally getting opposing PF's off their games by frustrating the heck out of them.  Maybe I'm partial--I've always enjoyed what he brings to the table and thought any good team needs a guy like him.  Also, Kris Humphries is under-rated.  His bloated contract and reality TV show have skewed public perception.  He is a poor man's Blake Griffin (a very, very poor man), but coming off the bench he is a nice player and he can fill in as a starter for short stretches without a huge drop-off.

 

As for Jones and Horford--come on.  I love Jones and am a huge proponent of keeping and developing him.  However, Horford would be a game changer in many ways--mainly on defense.  He is not Alonzo Mourning good, but when healthy he comes close.

 

Check out some more shooting comps.  Horford first and then Jones.

 

 

 

Awesome!  Both are crazy good within 3 ft. of the rim.  There are 2 main differences.  First, Horford is pretty solid from mid-range and, like it or not, Morey has shifted on that front--just check out our shot charts from game to game versus the last 2 seasons.  As McHale says, "it depends on who is shooting them".

 

The other thing that stands out is the ast% on their shots (meaning someone else set them up).  I was surprised here as Jones has a distinct advantage in this category that shows he creates for himself way more often than Horford.  (remember everyone, Horford hasn't been healthy for the most part of 2 years).

 

I love what Jones brings to the offense and I agree it is the perfect puzzle piece to go with our other guys.  I would also love Horford and think his defense would be a boon for a team that is already looking strong on that front.  It also gives us a quality back up center, another legit post presence...there is a lot to like about him.  I also like his $12M/yr price tag for the next 2 years.  That's a steal and it comes off the books just in time for Mr. Durant (you know, if you're into that).

 

It's all moot because Atlanta isn't giving him away for nothing and we aren't breaking open the piggy bank to get him.  We don't need to because Jones will get there.  He's got the eye of the tiger this season.

 

By the way, who else is loving that 43% 3fg% from Jones?  Even if it is a "snack-pack" sized sample.  <-----Love that 

[Alituro]

 

 

I'm sure you thing Patrick Beverley is the same player as CP3 or Rondo. And Papa is similar to Lebron. Let's not go crazy with comparisons here.

 

*Think.

 

Even though I disagree with your statement about the Horford/Jones comparison, when you close with statements like that, I find it hard to continue to engage in conversation with you.

 

Sorry about the snark, moderators, I'll stop now.

[timetodienow1234567]

I apologize about closing with that statement, but comparing Jones with Horford is pretty ludicrous in line with that last paragraph.

I understand you really like Jones but it was shocking to read that.

[Alituro]

I apologize about closing with that statement, but comparing Jones with Horford is pretty ludicrous in line with that last paragraph.

I understand you really like Jones but it was shocking to read that.

Thanks for that. I know it was a bold statement. There are plenty of parallels in their games and bodies though, and I don't think it's a stretch to see Jones develop into that caliber of player before it's done. Like the wise JG said: it's all moot anyway because we're not breaking the bank to get him here.

 

People here are constantly pining over the other two, though, who are more realistically attainable (Millsap, Rondo) and I just don't think they offer anything over what we have now to justify any sacrifices at all in bringing them here (short of straight up for Dorsey). Rondo's great, don't get me wrong, I just think that he needs the ball in his hands to be most effective, and would create the pegged scenario I illustrated up above. Bev's already good on D and only needs to perch himself in the corner to fit into his role on offense, you can't ask Rondo to do that.

 

As H-town sports fans, it's in our nature to be leery of early success, or any for that matter. But, I will say this is the first time in 20 years I've felt this kind of excitement about a Rockets Squad. You can tell the bonds are strong between them and there's a fire in their eyes, even in the outwardly aloof D12.. There were times during Yao and T-mac where we could have made some noise but there was always still underlying problems to prevent that kind of excitement even other than the injuries (although they always loomed), like starting Alston at the point or D. Wesley, or J Howard, or Yao's inability to stay out of foul trouble or inability to counter somebody fronting him to catch an entry pass, Or JVG's offensive ineptitude.

[thejohnnygold]

Rondo is certainly a risk for a multitude of reasons.  That being said, if we got him Dwight Howard could conceivably average 30 & 20 for the season.  This would be partially due to all the easy buckets Rondo would get him and partly due to Dwight snagging all those missed shots Rondo will put up.  

[txtdo1411]

Thanks for that. I know it was a bold statement. There are plenty of parallels in their games and bodies though, and I don't think it's a stretch to see Jones develop into that caliber of player before it's done. Like the wise JG said: it's all moot anyway because we're not breaking the bank to get him here.

 

People here are constantly pining over the other two, though, who are more realistically attainable (Millsap, Rondo) and I just don't think they offer anything over what we have now to justify any sacrifices at all in bringing them here (short of straight up for Dorsey). Rondo's great, don't get me wrong, I just think that he needs the ball in his hands to be most effective, and would create the pegged scenario I illustrated up above. Bev's already good on D and only needs to perch himself in the corner to fit into his role on offense, you can't ask Rondo to do that.

 

As H-town sports fans, it's in our nature to be leery of early success, or any for that matter. But, I will say this is the first time in 20 years I've felt this kind of excitement about a Rockets Squad. You can tell the bonds are strong between them and there's a fire in their eyes, even in the outwardly aloof D12.. There were times during Yao and T-mac where we could have made some noise but there was always still underlying problems to prevent that kind of excitement even other than the injuries (although they always loomed), like starting Alston at the point or D. Wesley, or J Howard, or Yao's inability to stay out of foul trouble or inability to counter somebody fronting him to catch an entry pass, Or JVG's offensive ineptitude.

 

Great post Alituro. Now is the time for optimism. We won't win every game, and will certainly have some poor performances, but this is a very good and exciting team. We can't control the games, but we can make sure to enjoy the ride rather than fret over everything. 

 

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/75Ua7yJhdcA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Edited by txtdo1411, 07 November 2014 - 09:42 PM.

[txtdo1411]

Great post Alituro. Now is the time for optimism. We won't win every game, and will certainly have some poor performances, but this is a very good and exciting team. We can't control the games, but we can make sure to enjoy the ride rather than fret over everything. 

 

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/75Ua7yJhdcA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Well my first attempt to embed a video on this site, and I failed miserably. It wont let me edit it now, so I apologize guys! 

[thejohnnygold]

Well my first attempt to embed a video on this site, and I failed miserably. It wont let me edit it now, so I apologize guys! 

 

In the text editor look at the upper let corner.  The 3rd icon from the left (green-ish square thingy).  Click that.  Select "media".  Enter the URL there and your done.  For some reason, certain videos won't post, but usually this will work.

[clydesmoustache]

I don't know how u guys get head to head stats but i would love to see how horford matches up against the main pf i have nightmares over. Lma, dirk and griffen!

I am surprised that their height is so close. Horford looks real big on court. I think horford is the ultimate pipe dream. I love T Jones and it has been a pleasure watching him develop if we had a chance good bye and good luck.

Also i think horford would fit in well Joakim says he is the best team mate he has had. I base a lot of decisions on what noah says!

[thejohnnygold]

I don't know how u guys get head to head stats but i would love to see how horford matches up against the main pf i have nightmares over. Lma, dirk and griffen!

I am surprised that their height is so close. Horford looks real big on court. I think horford is the ultimate pipe dream. I love T Jones and it has been a pleasure watching him develop if we had a chance good bye and good luck.

Also i think horford would fit in well Joakim says he is the best team mate he has had. I base a lot of decisions on what noah says!

 

There really isn't much of a way to do this since he hasn't played much over the last 2 years (a lot has changed since then) and Josh Smith took on the PF's at that time since Horford plays center in Atlanta.

[clydesmoustache]

Yeah true forgot about that

[Losthief]

Only thing I'll add to this discussion is, tjones potential is essentially horford imo, and if he reaches that potential this year thats awesome, but we would have to pay him, which likely would cost more than 12 million a year. Now that said, if Jones reaches that potential he's probably worth more than 12 million a year at 22 so thats a wash. So really it be trading potential Jones for now Jones, but I'd only do it if we got to keep Jones. A big man rotation of Howard ( c), Horford (pf/c), Jones (pf) would be deadly. That said, we not getting Horford for cheap so i'll stop. 

 

But i do have to add this on the rondo front. Every time someone brings up rondo not fitting, they try to fit him into bev's role. How come? There is no reason Harden can't play off the ball when rondo and him share the court and on the ball when rondo sits. Harden played off the ball in College, in OKC, in the Olympics, and he shot better than even he does now in those stints. Having Harden run the break as the three point option would be deadly with ariza on the other side. Again, I think we are limiting our thought process by the fact that Harden plays the pg position for us now. That might be what he's playing now, but I'm confident he is capable as a true SG too, plus that would save him for 4th quarters and defense if some of the penetration and pick and rolls were run by rondo throughout the game.

Edited by Losthief, 08 November 2014 - 05:37 AM.

[Red94]

Strongly disagree with you guys.  I don't think I'd trade for Rondo anymore at this point.  But you'd have to have a really compelling argument to persuade me against trading for Millsap or Horford, especially Horford.  

[thejohnnygold]

Strongly disagree with you guys.  I don't think I'd trade for Rondo anymore at this point.  But you'd have to have a really compelling argument to persuade me against trading for Millsap or Horford, especially Horford.  

 

The question is, what would you give up for him and what do we think Ferry's asking price would be?  I prefer Horford because I want defense more than offense.  We all know that what we need is a solid guy to hold down the fort at PF in the WC playoffs on defense (plus a solid back up C).  We're betting on Jones, but the odds are way better with Horford.

 

I just don't think we can get him for draft picks and Capela+D-Mo+Nick Johnson.  Why would they do that mid-season when they have a legitimate playoff team that thinks they can make some noise this season?

 

I think to even get Ferry to not hang up the phone laughing we'd have to include multiple firsts, Jones, Papa, Daniels, and likely one of Capela/NJ.  Is that worth it?  As long as we stay 100% healthy we can do it.  D-Mo can fill in back-up minutes at PF/C...we'd still have Black....Garcia can play back up SF.

 

Again, it's not a question of, "do we want Horford"?  It's a question of how to get him--which I think is a no-go.  It's a pipe dream right now.  Maybe after the season, if Atlanta has a poor finish, he is entering his last year, and Millsap walks they might look at trading him and starting over.  That is the earliest this happens.

 

It's been proven time and again--people love the glitz and glamour of offensive players, but it's the defense that wins.  Horford is the equivalent of Trevor Ariza, but at PF/C.  He would take us to the next level.  Ed Davis out in LA is a player to watch--he was buried in Memphis, but will have the opportunity to shine in LA...I think he can be a difference maker on the defensive end.