73 replies to this topic

[thejohnnygold]

Your point is well taken, but in watching that video I saw as much bad offense as I saw good defense.  The lobs to Dwight were off.  That was Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter's bad knees trying to drive past the defense.  The corner three guy just missed his shot.  Dwight taking 8' hook shots in traffic is not ideal either.

 

Boston gets some credit for playing tough D, but let's not forget the other half of the equation here.  Slow penetration, forced passes and bad shots.

[ale11]

Thanks for the video, 2016, but I was just about to say what JG said: not exactly great executions by Orlando. It lacked ball movement (there were occasions when an extra pass could have done great things for Orlando) and the personnel wasn't the same as ours (there was noone remotely as skilled as Harden in that squad, old Vince doesn't count).

 

So, you can play excellent team defense, but when the offense isn't good, that defense can look perfect. It depends on both sides. And not every team has elite defense, but on paper, we do have an elite offense. On paper, time will tell.

Edited by ale11, 18 July 2013 - 09:17 PM.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Those things happen, not everything will be executed perfectly which is why I'm very happy with how the Rockets ran their offense last season and I don't want to see too many changes. It was so simple yet so effective because there was so much spacing. Take away that spacing and things get much, much, more complicated. 

 

There's a reason why out of the 50 teams that made the finals in the last 25 years, not a single one of them had a rangeless front court. Every single one of them had at least one big man who could space the floor to at least 15 feet. And I would argue that even 15 feet isn't enough since times has chanced, hence the fact Tiago Splitter wasn't effective and the Spurs had to turn to Diaw and Bonner alot more than they wanted to.  

[ale11]

I agree with you. But part of finding the right rotation is so your main players won't get to the playoffs burned like Harden last year. During the regular season, we'll be forced to somehow get those two to play together effectively at some point, even though that won't happen much during playoff time. You have to keep Asik happy and integrated for two reasons: 1) having two 7 footers who excel at defense to anchor your team at all times is a luxury any other team has right now and 2) it's 90% sure Asik will get traded at some point and we need to keep his value as high as possible in the mean time.

[miketheodio]

Agreed.  I think we'll get to see them featured more in blowouts.

i think jones is going to start.

[miketheodio]

Those things happen, not everything will be executed perfectly which is why I'm very happy with how the Rockets ran their offense last season and I don't want to see too many changes. It was so simple yet so effective because there was so much spacing. Take away that spacing and things get much, much, more complicated. 

 

There's a reason why out of the 50 teams that made the finals in the last 25 years, not a single one of them had a rangeless front court. Every single one of them had at least one big man who could space the floor to at least 15 feet. And I would argue that even 15 feet isn't enough since times has chanced, hence the fact Tiago Splitter wasn't effective and the Spurs had to turn to Diaw and Bonner alot more than they wanted to.  

what do you think about doing post ups when there is a lull in the offense? 

[NorEastern]

There seems to be stray talk about integrating a midrange game into the Rockets offense. Bad idea. Numerous studies have shown that the midrange is the least effective option for offenses. If Harden or Lin or Parsons is open for an 18 foot jump shot why not have them take it? Because the % makes at 18 feet is minimally better than the 3 point shot, with only 2/3 of the reward.

 

There also has been discussion about playing Asik and Howard together. Well what would McHale do when facing such a lineup? Last season he would play Parsons or Delfino at the PF spot. Good luck to any traditional PF chasing those two around the court. While having Howard and Asik on the court together might work well against lumbering front lines like the Griz, the elite teams will immediately take advantage of that lineup. The very most recent example of this occurred in the finals. The Spurs could not play Duncan and Splitter together.

 

And finally to the PnR. This is the area that (hopefully) the Rockets will exploit at every oppertunity next season. Historically great PnR combos have been amoung the best duos in the NBA. Think Malone and Stockton. That will be where the grain is threshed next season. Harden and Howard. Nuff said.

[timetodienow1234567]

Howard hates the PnR, I thought. He always complains unless he's emulating Shaq

[Mason Khamvilay]

Howard hates the PnR, I thought. He always complains unless he's emulating Shaq

I think this is a misconception. 

[timetodienow1234567]

Idk. He seems mistaken that he is a low post maestro. I do believe he will complain unless he gets 15-20 post ups per game.

[RollingWave]

There seems to be stray talk about integrating a midrange game into the Rockets offense. Bad idea. Numerous studies have shown that the midrange is the least effective option for offenses. If Harden or Lin or Parsons is open for an 18 foot jump shot why not have them take it? Because the % makes at 18 feet is minimally better than the 3 point shot, with only 2/3 of the reward.

There also has been discussion about playing Asik and Howard together. Well what would McHale do when facing such a lineup? Last season he would play Parsons or Delfino at the PF spot. Good luck to any traditional PF chasing those two around the court. While having Howard and Asik on the court together might work well against lumbering front lines like the Griz, the elite teams will immediately take advantage of that lineup. The very most recent example of this occurred in the finals. The Spurs could not play Duncan and Splitter together.

And finally to the PnR. This is the area that (hopefully) the Rockets will exploit at every oppertunity next season. Historically great PnR combos have been amoung the best duos in the NBA. Think Malone and Stockton. That will be where the grain is threshed next season. Harden and Howard. Nuff said.

There are some other factors in there, such as that if you NEVER take 18 footers, that probably won't help your team either since other team's defense will be geared to the mind that they never need to guard anyone in that range. so guards will just full press everyone around the 3 line and if they get beat the bigs won't come out until the guys actually reach the paint.

Yeah, taking long 2s in a vacuum is less ideal, but nothing is ever in a vacuum outside of free throws, if you can take a open long 2 versus a very contested 3? if you have a player that's just really good at that range? if the other team's simply daring to you take those? there are certainly still plenty of situation where you should take them I'd think, just that you try to cut down the unnecessary once as much as possible

Lineup is about matchups these days, there's no "perfect" once, despite your argument 2016, the Spurs still had Duncan / Splitter out there a significant portion of the finals, they still pretty easily took out a GSW team that was running Barnes at the 4. and of course, the Grizzlies took out a Thunder team that had Ibaka pretty easily. while the Pacers destroyed multiple small ball team and was 1 play away from taking down the Heat.

it's all relative here , I think I can see the offensive argument to a point, but the defensive one I feel is grossly overstated, if having 2 slower bigs is actually a negative on defense, the Grizzlies should have been the worst defense in the League instead of the best. and in case people haven't watched basketball in 8 years, Dwight Howard is faster than your average PF.

Edited by RollingWave, 19 July 2013 - 03:28 AM.

[Mason Khamvilay]

The Warriors lack of experience was the biggest reason they lost imo, but I still thought they put up a fight. Splitter and Duncan didn't work in the finals because Miami's rotations were so on point.

[RollingWave]

Also 2016 , you need to be aware that San Antonio won game 1 and 3 playing Splitter for over 25 mins (and starting.) and in game 3 it was a very very decisive win.

Splitter's exist from the lineup is due more to anything else, the fact that Tony Parker got hurt so they had to put in Ginobelli in the starting lineup. but neither Ginobelli or Paker are good 3 point shooter (Ginobelli is essentially the same as Lin after November, and Parker's much worse, he hits at a ok rate but very very rarely takes them.). so if they take out Green to put Ginobelli in, that's REALLY having no spacing, as they have 1.5 decent shooter between the 5 .

In the end, the problem was that Splitter didn't hold up his end of the bargin, he was a below average rebounding C to begin with, and the Spurs were CRUSHED in game 4 on the board despite having Spliiter + Duncan. now, if he's not doing what he's suppose to be the main advantage or going big, then the whole point is moot. If you say he's actually still winning on the board but they're losing , then that's an argument, but that didn't happen did it?.

Spacing comes in many shape and form, I'd agree that Asik + Howard could be a problem in enough situation to warrant not using them as a the defecto lineup, on the other hand they do present a very strong advantage that could prove useful in many other situation. In the playoffs, you need OPTIONS, DIFFERENT options . anyone watching could see that the Heat and Spurs were desperately juggling for any and all options all 7 games. and different options worked at different times.

In the end, if your arguing that a more banged up and older AND less talented SAS team, who was 20 seconds away from winning the finals , is an argument that having 2 bigs who aren't very rangy together on the floor can't work, I am unconvinced.

You can not just throw out everything that works against your argument and only take the parts that fits , I'd note that in the entire playoff, it was clear as day that the hardest guy for Lebron defensively was David West, that the Pacers, who werent' a good offensive team at all, were on the verge of beating the Heat simply by plowing right through them in the paint, and you can double / triple / quadriple team all you want but if your much smaller, the big centers can get what they want more often then not, and even if he miss, if his partner grabs most of the rebound, your still screwed.

The biggest part of if Asik + Dwight can work is not in it's weakness, it's if their strength is worth MORE than that weakness

Edited by RollingWave, 19 July 2013 - 03:54 AM.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I think Jones is perfect, he can rebound well enough and will defend guys like Barnes and Ibaka all the way out to the 3or better than Asik.

[RollingWave]

Maybe, but 1 is that Jones and Dwight won't be on the court all the time, and 2 is that I would want to see at least 2 solid months of Jones playing like an NBA starter in the real season to really be convinced of anything, and 3 is that Jones may rebound well, but it's obvious that it won't be Asik well. . of course, the question as always, is relativity.

[Mason Khamvilay]

We won't need two elite rebounder though. We were already an elite rebounding team despite having Delfino at the 4 a significant amount of the time. It's not like Dwight and Asik will combine for 26 boards if we play them together, there aren't that many rebounds to go around.

[thejohnnygold]

With all of this discussion of pick & roll vs. post-up I thought it would help to bring some more perspective.

 

Here are James Harden's offensive numbers from mysynergysports:

 

Notice his fg% on the pick n roll is 45.7%.  Even after factoring in free throws his scoring % is 45.2%.

 

Dwight's fg% in the post is 44.5%.  After free throws it drops to 41%, but that's what you get with Dwight...the good news is he gets fouled a lot (18% of the time) so he will be keeping starting bigs on the bench with this attack...which helps the PnR.

 

If we are going to tout the pick & roll as superior let's be reasonable about the actual comparisons.  I recognize that the PnR has the added bonus of the Dwight option--which cannot be ignored--but that's 527 Harden PnR's where he scores at a 45% clip.  I don't see how we can bash Howard's 44% post ups while lauding Harden's 45% PnR's.  Once you factor in all the net benefits it's a no-brainer.

 

That being said, I am not saying we shouldn't run lots of PnR's.  LOTS OF THEM.  I can only assume Howard will be getting plenty of offensive rebounds off those Harden misses on the PnR. 

 

The same can be said for Howard post-ups.  I believe he will draw double teams which leaves plenty of room for whoever is playing alongside him in the front court to get some easy put-backs.

 

It's not over-rating/under-rating anything.  It's just basketball.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I think you're being misleading by comparing Harden's PnR efficiency to Dwight's Post-Up efficiency with FG% because that paints a picture that's very far from the truth. 

1. Harden shoots 3's which lowers his fg% but doesn't lower his efficiency. His 39.5% on 3's is equivalent to 59.2% on 2's. 
2. Harden gets alot more assists on his pick and rolls, and makes alot more free throws. 

All these factors can be summed up into one easy number: PPP (points per possession). Harden's PnR PPP = 1 (ranks 6th). Dwight's Post-Up: .74 (ranks 121st). There really is no comparison. 

Edited by 2016Champions, 19 July 2013 - 10:39 PM.

[timetodienow1234567]

I think total team points per possession would tell a more truthful story.

[timetodienow1234567]

In regards to which method is better. It doesn't matter who takes the shot but rather how much the team benefits.