Who would have ever dreamed that on January 3, 2016, the Rockets of Houston would sit at 16-19? Had you told me, I’d have assumed that it could only be that James Harden had gone down. Even an injury to Dwight Howard couldn’t have sunk this roster this fast. But here they are, in 2016, clinging to the 8th seed, sandwiched in the standings between Utah and Portland, two franchises in flux, with no aspirations above rebuilding their programs. Golden State and San Antonio both, sit predictably at the head of the class, in the air Houston had assumed they’d occupy. The Thunder and Clippers both are peaking, each having turned it on of late, sort of. And Memphis is in 6th, not too surprisingly, its time having clearly passed, but still grinding away at .500. Dallas, somehow, with that roster, cobbled together in the 11th hour, is at 19-15, proof and testament to the importance of coaching in the NBA game. The dregs are the dregs, but those teams weren’t meant to be good anyway, and are looking ahead to June.
While the early returns from the Capela-Howard pairing looked promising, in the midst of a four game skid, with the soft part of the schedule in the rearview mirror, we’re probably at the point now where you can safely conclude the team won’t take off. At best, they’ll probably limp into the postseason as a lower seed, hoping to click in time to pull off an upset. Right now, they’re a laughingstock, an embarrassment, and by far, the most disappointing team in the league.
What is there to do? I wrote two weeks ago that trading Harden would be foolish and I maintain that stance. It was also around that time that the news about Ty Lawson first broke. But since coming back from his suspension, the point guard has looked like his former self, making things happen off the bench, finally looking comfortable with the ball. Dwight and Capela have been themselves, and Motiejunas will take even more time to round into form, sitting out Saturday’s match with soreness in his back. Brewer has been terrible. Terrence Jones was a -36 and -24 against the Spurs and Warriors, respectively. He’s as good as gone, I think.
If you “blow it up”, what does that even mean? I guess getting the best deals you can for Jones, Brewer, Lawson, Howard, and possibly Ariza and Beverley. I’m not sure it serves any purpose to deal Motiejunas or Capela, given their ages. But what could you even get? Outside of Markieff Morris, I don’t see there even being a market for Jones/Brewer. Despite his resurgence, who would want Lawson or give you back anything of any value? The Rockets were the only team that didn’t have a point guard. You could possibly get a future first, I think, from a contender needing wing depth, for Ariza. You definitely won’t be getting back any building blocks.
And then there’s Howard. What’s even the market there? Noah and/or Gibson? Maybe Whiteside? There could be a market, yes, but it’s debatable as to the upside. There is the thinking, though, that if he’s leaving anyway this summer, you might as well get what you can right now. I personally am not convinced, despite the national narrative, that Dwight is in a rush to leave, and I’m not in a hurry to see the big man go.
The best option might be to just stay the course. You make a few small moves–swap out Jones and Brewer for Morris and McDaniels–and see what happens. You probably sneak into the playoffs as a lower seed. If you can avoid the Warriors and Spurs, no one would really be surprised if this team pulled off a first round upset.
Look, I know. It’s probably even more angering to read this line of reasoning. For this team, it was Finals or bust. But Morey won’t manage based off emotion. What purpose does it serve to “blow it up”? There’s no avenue to plan for the long term and you won’t get back better alternatives for the present either.
The one thing I might do, if you can hire the man you want to coach this team, is to hire him now instead of waiting for the summer. This season is lost. But if you can bring in your guy, you can at least get a head start in using the second half to implement the principles the new man wants. Otherwise, those late winter-early spring games become a waste of everyone’s time.
I know the popular reaction right now is to gut this team, but where does that get you?
