The regular season is nearing its end, and so the Rockets travel to the desert for a game that could guarantee them the 6th seed. The equation: win tonight and if the Warriors lose one of their last two games (vs San Antonio and @ Portland) then they’re locked into their spot. While there is a school of thought that says they would be more likely to advance against a banged-up Spurs team, the Nuggets (who only need to win one more game to guarantee the third seed) have their own injury problems and that match-up is likely to be ridiculously entertaining. The Rockets management has given no indication they’d prefer to strategically lose, so I can’t imagine we’ll see anything other than 100% from the team tonight.

That said, it is the second night of a back-to-back, a scenario in which the Rockets have been poor this year (6-14 record in games where they’ve played the night before). Fortunately, their romp against Sacramento was comprehensive enough that the starters could be rested in the 4th quarter, so they should hopefully have something left in the tank.

Their opponents this evening are in full-on tank mode at the moment. The Suns have had nothing to play for for some time – historically an unusual feeling out in Phoenix – and now have an eye on getting lucky with the lottery. Since they beat Houston on the 9th of March, they’ve gone 2-15. In their defense, it should be noted that Marcin Gortat has been injured for the entirety of that stretch, and his absence leaves them with a gaping hole at centre. But despite his noises about returning, it seems likely given their current situation that he will be shut down for the rest of the season.

Key Questions:

- This is the second team in a row with several former Rockets on the roster. In the teams’ last meeting they played very well – can the Rockets limit them this time around? Particularly Scola, who’s wily post moves will make life difficult for whichever of the Rockets’ many PFs ends up with the majority of the minutes.

- Beasley is one of those players who is usually terrible but every once in a while can take over a game. Will we see disinterested, pull-up-for-bad-jumpers Beasley, or dangerous, attacking-the-rim and making-baskets Beasley? These days it’s usually the former, but if the latter shows up, watch out?

- Will Lin and Harden have the energy to turn on the driving game? The Suns have a few competent defensive players in Dragic, Dudley and Tucker who could make it difficult to get that initial penetration, particularly on tired legs. But once that’s been surmounted the interior Suns defense is porous. O’Neal is experienced but his abilities are on the decline, and neither Morris twin is a particularly good help defender. If the Rockets’ guards can get past their men, they should profit.

- Who will be making their threes? As we know by now, the Rockets can struggle if the three ball isn’t falling. If a few players can make some outside shots, particularly if they’re at the 4, then it will make the game a lot easier.

- Have the wings got back to fitness? We’ve seen that when healthy Parsons and Delfino help to turbo-charge the Rockets’ offense. However, both have been struggling with injuries lately and that has left a void at the wing positions. They need to get back to their midseason form for the Rockets to stand a chance of progressing in the playoffs, and that starts with working their way back to that level in games like tonight.

The post Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns on 4/15/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

You wouldn’t know it from looking at their position in the standings and their 27-47, but the Sacramento Kings are quietly having a late-season renaissance. As this Truehoop article points out, they have had the second best offense in the league since the trade-deadline, as the arrival of Patrick Patterson and his floor-spreading ways has coincided nicely with hot shooting streaks from Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton to turbo-charge their game with the ball in hand. In years gone by the Kings have tried to give meaning to otherwise meaningless late season games by doing their best to trip up anyone fighting for playoff position who happened to cross their path, and it seems they’ll be looking to do the same this year having recently recorded good wins against the Bulls, Clippers and Warriors.

Sacramento hold the distinction of being one of the few teams in the league that Houston has not beaten so far this year, and they stick out like a sore thumb in the company of the other members of that group – Miami, Indiana and Denver. The Rockets have two games left against them to correct that and avenge their loss earlier in the season.  The goal of playoff qualification is inching ever closer, and with one eye the team must be looking to overhauling the Golden State Warriors for the number 6 spot in the West. Winning despite missing Harden in their past two games has been very helpful in that regard, but they are still a game back and need wins on nights like tonight to keep their challenge alive.

Lineups:

Missing Parsons and Harden didn’t slow the Rockets down too much against Sacramento, but tonight they’ll be facing a much more well-stocked front court and won’t be able to rely on the brute force of Greg Smith or the jumpers of Omer Asik (no, really) consistently. The good news is that the team’s two leading scorers are hoping to play, but both are game-time decisions as the bearded one recovers from an ankle injury and Parsons recovers from some Mexican-food-induced food poisoning.

If both of them do play, it will be interesting to see if McHale persists with using Greg Smith in the starting lineup or re-inserts Motiejunas at the Power Forward position.  Smith has played very well since taking on the starting gig and Motiejunas’ play of late has been less than inspiring, but on the other hand if Harden returns the extra space provided by D-Mo’s floor spacing might be more useful. It’s certainly the case that the team has looked more solid defensively when playing both Smith and Asik at the same time, but it does have the downside that the when the backups check in McHale has to pair Robinson and Motiejunas together, which doesn’t quite have the same solidity to it at this stage.

There’s also a battle going on for the remaining minutes on the wing between James Anderson and Francisco Garcia. Both have seen playing time in recent times due to a combination of injuries and Delfino’s current shooting funk. Anderson seemed to have the edge coming into this stretch, as he was the first to come into the lineup after Harden’s injury against the Grizzlies, but Garcia has done a lot to stake his claim. He’s hitting a high percentage from the field and has adapted to the offense nicely, while Anderson often tries to force things despite not possessing the dynamism of the man whose shoes he is trying to fill. The mini-contest between them is far from over – in a fully healthy squad it is likely that there will only be minutes for one of the two – but for now it’s worth considering what a luxury it is that two such solid players are on hand to fill in when two-thirds of the regular wing rotation goes down. The Rockets have been very fortunate with injuries this season, but Morey’s roster building has ensured that the cover is there when needed.

One more point on the Rockets – Terrence Jones is back with the Rockets after a thumb injury. He has looked excellent in his two games with the Vipers, but it remains to be seen whether he can push his way in front of either Robinson or Motiejunas to get some minutes in the rotation. On paper his three point range would make him a better fit in the offense than Robinson, but having not been with the team for long it’s unclear if he has been properly integrated back into the fold enough that McHale will trust him with some playing time. When there was a similar competition for minutes between Greg Smith and Cole Aldrich earlier in the season, McHale would only play one on any given night. Perhaps he will adopt a similar strategy here (although if D-Mo continues to rack up fouls at the rate he’s been going both might be needed).

The Kings are built around DeMarcus Cousins, one of the better examples of the ‘talented but troubled’ archetype in today’s NBA. Coach Keith Smart, who has at times been criticised for inconsistent lineup choices, seems to have settled on a nine-man group for the past few games. He’ll put diminutive point guard Isaiah Thomas and the once-hyped Tyreke Evans together in the backcourt for the opening tip, filling in the starting lineup with John Salmons (veteran wing) and Jason Thompson (little-known but solid forward). Look on the bench and you’ll see many familiar faces. There’s Patrick Patterson, bringing his calm professionalism and leadership to a locker room that needed it (and adding some welcome three point shooting from the 4). It will be interesting to see his first game against his old team – there will doubtless be some desire to do well against his former teammates. Old friend Chuck Hayes will bring his defense and high-post passing, and familiar face Toney Douglas has worked his way into the lineup as a backup point guard. But the remaining player off the bench for the Kings is probably the most dangerous – Marcus Thornton may be inconsistent but when he’s hot he can really punish you with his ability to score from anywhere on the court.

On Offense:

This part of the game is very much in flux depending on the status of Harden. If he’s around the Rockets will persist with the penetration-fuelled strategy that has served them so well all year. Without him, the team should switch to more of a passing game, with a lot of focus on the inside presences of Asik and Smith. The pair have exhibited some nicely effective inside games recently, and the Rockets will probably look to establish them early against Thompson and Cousins. Neither will be as easy to overwhelm as Tobias Harris was for Greg Smith on Monday, but at the same time they are at best average post defenders and should provide an interesting test for the big men’s budding post games. They will have to be careful when the subs check in though, because Patterson’s familiarity with their games will make things difficult and long-time Rockets followers will know just how difficult Chuck Hayes can make life in the post.

On the wings, both Anderson and Delfino are in the midst of poor shooting stretches they’ll be wanting to break out of. Delfino’s issues may be as a result of the lingering elbow injury that he has previously said will be with him until the end of the season. Anderson, on the other hand, has a tendency to drive into the teeth of the defense more than he perhaps should, and the resulting pull-ups are not conducive to shooting a high percentage. He has struggled from behind the arc too (1/8 in his last three games), which at some point will need to turn around if he wants to earn some more consistent minutes going forwards.

On Defense:

The Sacramento Kings have for several seasons been characterized as a team of unconscionable gunners with no interesting in passing the ball. While this is slowly improving, there is still a lot of injudicious shot selection going on. Cousins likes to shoot from the midrange, from where he is inconsistent (although recently he has been gravitating towards the hoop more), and both Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton have a tendency to look for their own shots slightly too much. However, Isaiah Thomas has been improving the balance in his game between the shot and the pass to good effect, and Patterson has helped create more room for the teams multitudinous drivers.

While Cousins has all of the tools to be a physically dominant centre, he has yet to employ them in a consistent fashion. Most of his offensive game can be summed up by a quick glance at his shot chart, which does not make for pretty viewing:

He doesn’t seem to be able to finish especially well around the basket despite his bulk, and Asik should be able to keep him quiet down low. He is, however, a surprisingly good passer if given the freedom to do so. You will often see him dumping off to back-cutting wings in plays that look like they could well be holdovers from back when Rick Adelman coached here all those years ago.

One of the keys to stopping the Kings’ offense is to find a way to slow down Isaiah Thomas. In wins this year he has shot 52%, but in losses he only connects on 42% of his shots. He’s had a couple of big games recently (including a 31 point, 7 assist night against the Warriors last week), and his speed makes him tough for bigger guards to chase. This is a match-up where I think Lin will struggle – in general I think he does a much better job against bigger guards that he can stay in front of than speedy ones who can sometimes exploit his so-so lateral quickness. Beverley, on the other hand, with his smaller build and aggressive quickness, would seem to be an ideal player to give this defensive assignment to. I wouldn’t be surprised if Beverley gets some minutes down the stretch if the game is close.

Tyreke Evans has improved his three point shot slightly this year, but it’s still an anemic 33%. He will look to drive where possible and should be played as such – were the standard starters around I would expect Parsons to take Evans and Harden to be cross-matched on the less-dynamic Salmons. Thornton plays very much like a worse version of Kobe when he takes to the court – it doesn’t matter where he is, he will shoot from anywhere out of any coverage, be it off the dribble or otherwise. He is capable of making more of those shots than you’d expect, it’s just that they’re still really low percentage.

When Patterson he will provide a slightly different look by stretching the defense out to the three point line. This has seemed to have a positive effect on Cousins’ play by moving him closer to the basket when they’re playing together, and its overall efficacy has been helped by Patterson being red hot from beyond the arc since the move (46.7%!). Motiejunas should be able to stay in front of him, but will have to be wary of Patterson occasionally putting the ball on the floor from the perimeter, as well as his favourite baseline 15-footer.

Summary:

This is a game that on paper should be an easy win for the Rockets. However, the Kings are a team playing with nothing to lose, and if Harden and Parsons are unable to play at full strength it won’t necessarily be a walk in the park. The key will be to contain the offense of Cousins and Thomas – if they are able to do that, the rest should take care of itself.

The post Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings on 4/3/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Gone is the warm fuzzy glow that accompanied the Warriors in the early part of the season. Back in those days (the grind of the regular season has meant they are fast fading from the memory), their better-than-expected play catapulted them comfortably into the playoff places and earned them a lot of column inches as early season surprises. But somewhere along the line, probably about the time the Rockets delivered a historic beatdown on them in the two teams’ first meeting, the story began to fall off the rails. Unable to keep up the improved defensive effort they started the season with, the team has collapsed from 30-17 to 37-30 and now has to keep one eye on the battle for the 8th seed behind them.

The Rockets have been struggling for consistency in recent weeks, with excellent wins sandwiching disappointing losses. The dichotomy between the two halves of Friday’s tilt with the Timberwolves illustrates that frustrating inconsistency best – you would be hard-pressed to find a worse half of basketball from them this season than the first half, but the potency of their attack in the second was an exhibition of how deadly they can be when everything clicks. A win here leapfrogs Houston over Golden State in the race for the  6th spot, a particularly coveted piece of standings real-estate given the way the tiers of power in the upper echelons of the conference break down. Given that, the entertaining mini-feud they had with the Warriors earlier in the year and a desire to make hay while the sun shines during the current seven game homestand, there should be no problem for the team getting the motivation together for tonight’s game.

Lineups:

McHale has been rolling with the same starting five since inserting Motiejunas into the starting lineup against Milwaukee, and at this point injuries seem like the only thing that will change that for the rest of the season.  But while the Lin/Harden/Parsons/D-Mo/Asik combo on the floor for the opening tip will be familiar, he has been tinkering with the bench rotation somewhat. In the past he has said that he prefers a rotation of 9 players, but the addition of Francisco Garcia to the squad has seen him make an exception to that rule. On Friday night, McHale for the first time I can remember this season started the second quarter with no starters on the court. We saw nearly 5 minutes of Beverley/Garcia/Delfino/Robinson/Smith, and they went +1 over that span with Delfino and Robinson doing most of the damage. The success of the bench mob depends quite heavily on whether Delfino has his shooting stroke – without it they are sadly lacking in offensive firepower. But if that group can forge a chemistry together it could prove quite useful down the stretch run. It will also allow McHale to evaluate who is deserving of minutes when the playoffs come around.

Golden State’s fall from grace seems to have coincided with Bogut’s return to the lineup. Before it happened, outside observers assumed that he could just slot in to the rotation taking over minutes from Festus Ezeli, but it hasn’t turned out that way – he’s not looked great offensively and hasn’t been able to recapture the defensive dominance that was a hallmark of his days in Milwaukee. He’ll start alongside Curry, Thompson, Barnes and Lee, a lineup bursting with offense but lacking in defensive tenacity. Off the bench, Coach Jackson can call on the services of 6th-man of the Year candidate Jarrett Jack, our old friend Carl Landry, grizzled veteran Richard Jefferson, the aforementioned Festus Ezeli and rookie Draymond Green.

I would be remiss not to share an anecdote regarding their Latvian centre Andris Biedrins. The Warriors are one of the few teams in the league I’ve seen live, and when I did there was a fan behind me who shouted “No! Not to him! He’s so bad!” every time the ball was passed to Andris Biedrins. That’s pretty much him in a nutshell – he has a well-known phobia of free throws and it seems that has wrecked what was at one stage a promising career as he is now completely devoid of any offensive threat. As the season has gone on Jackson has shown less and less faith in him to the extent that he only saw three minutes of garbage time on Friday against the Bulls.

On Offense:

The second half against the Timberwolves was the archetypal Rockets offense. The team feasted off the havoc caused by repeated drives from Harden and Lin, reaping layups, free-throws, and three pointers off kick outs. This is an attack that Golden State are particularly susceptible to. First of all, they do not have a reliable perimeter defender who can keep opposing guards and wings in front of him (although I seem to recall Harrison Barnes playing some pretty good defense on Harden in one of the teams’ previous meetings. Secondly, their favoured defensive strategy seems to be to collapse quite heavily on penetration, perhaps because David Lee is not particularly good at bothering opposing guards if left to his own devices (or so says [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HX0Ezb-OPE]Kirk Goldsberry[/url], anyway). That means if the driving guards are capable of getting the ball back out to the perimeter in a timely manner, as both Lin and Harden can, then there should be plenty of wide-open three pointers available. The Warriors also rank near the bottom of the league (24th) in free-throws allowed per field-goal attempt,  so all signs point to a team that should be driven to death by the Rockets’ starting back-court.

The ability to stretch the floor should also be used liberally in this game. Another thing the the Warriors don’t really have is someone suited to guarding stretch-4s – both David Lee and Carl Landry are both more suited to hanging around in the paint. That should mean Motiejunas will be able to get open on the three point line a fair amount.

As I mentioned previously, Andrew Bogut has not looked himself this season on the defensive end. He’s been unable to shut down the paint in the manner to which we were accustomed to seeing him in Milwaukee, and a lot of that is to do with mobility. Perhaps it’s the lingering effects of his surgery or the effects that had on his fitness, but he doesn’t have the speed to be able to zip around the paint and challenge opposing players in a timely manner like he used to do. It might be worth using Asik in the pick-and-roll a bit to try to drag him out of position.

On Defense:

Golden State’s starting backcourt of Curry and Thompson is one of the most potent shooting tandems in the NBA. Curry requires constant attention and is very much a pick-your-poison type player. He’s very capable of barrages like his [url=http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278573]Madison Square Garden explosion[/url] a few weeks ago, but he’s also good at passing out of the double team so it’s difficult to get the ball out of his hands. In the past some teams have tried aggressively doubling him in the pick and roll, but he does a good job of dropping back, sometimes retreating all the way to half court, and dragging the two defenders with him. When he finally passes out of the trap, the Warriors end up with a 4-on-3 situation and tend to make opponents pay. He’s also got pretty decent handles and underrated court vision, so Lin will have his hands full tonight.

The Warriors’ bench features two players in Jack and Landry who can make life hell for opposing defenses. Landry has one of the more refined post games in the league and will likely give Thomas Robinson’s raw defense a stiff examination. Jack is an excellent spark-plug off the bench and does a great job of setting up his team-mates, but he has been struggling of late – his assist numbers are down from 5.4 to  just 2.7 in his last 10 games, and he’s only shooting 35.9% from the floor. Given the inexperienced and offense-light bench mob the Rockets are running with, this will come as a relief to McHale and co., but Beverley will still need to be his aggressive and vigilant self to keep him in that slump.

Summary:

The Rockets match up really well with the Warriors, and should be able to exploit the flaws in their defensive schemes. They’ll need to do their best to limit Curry and the other Warriors shooters, but provided they can do that and avoid the opposing bench from lighting up the Rockets’ backups, they should be able to come away with a win.

The post Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets on 3/17/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

Two games in a  row now the Rockets have been able to pull out despite playing short-handed. The new acquisitions from Sacramento have yet to join the team, and according to Jonathan Feigen it is unlikely that they will be in DC for the game either. So the Rockets arrive in Washington looking to sweep their shorthanded post-trade deadline stretch. It will be a huge morale boost for the team if they can claim the W, and will further cement their chances of achieving a playoff spot.

Unexpectedly, the Wizards have quietly turned into quite a good team. The return of John Wall has revitalized their squad, and they’ve recently ripped off a 4 game win streak. It wasn’t against powder-puff opposition either (although given Washington’s recent history they can’t really call any opponents that) – they dispatched the Clippers, Knicks, Nets and Bucks, all of whom currently occupy playoff spots. Underestimate these guys at your peril especially on their court on the second night of a back-to-back. The Wizards also played last night, pulling off yet another good win against the Nuggets.

Lineups:

As mentioned, the Rockets will very likely be without Robinson or Garcia tonight (I’m expecting Honeycutt will be going to the D-League). Delfino will be playing the PF – it remains to be seen whether the Wizards will be prepared for this unusual starting tactic. With all of the small ball you can expect to see Anderson continue to get minutes off the bench as an additional wing – he hasn’t done much flashy stuff but has been able to sink a few shots and although he’s not someone to get excited about, it’s good to have him there to paper over the cracks in the rotation until Garcia arrives. On the other hand, Motiejunas has been trying to do as much eye-catching as he can since a window opened up for him to earn some minutes. As Rahat described, he definitely has the tools to help this team, it’s just a question of whether the deficiencies in his game are big enough to keep him off the court.

The Wizards dealt away Jordan Crawford at the deadline for basically nothing, since Leandro Barbosa is injured until the end of the season and Collins isn’t going to see the court very much. But his volume shooting ways seem surplus to requirements now that they’ve got their mouthwatering young backcourt healthy on the court. One gets the feeling that Wall and Beal are going to be a tandem we’ll be hearing about for some time. They are the future of the Wizards franchise, and the early signs have been bright. Of course, one mustn’t forget that in the present they also have a pretty decent starting frontcourt as well – Nene and Okafor may not be stars, but they are both very capable big men and should not be underestimated. Around this core, coach Randy Wittman has at his disposal a bevy of players who would all fit under the traditional ‘Forward’ designation. Martell Webster got the start at SF against the Nuggets, but the hard-working Chris Singleton and our old friend Trevor Ariza are also available to fill out the wing rotation. Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphim will spell Nene and Okafor at PF/C. When Wall needs a break they can call on the services of AJ Price to round out the rotation. 10 deep and solid (if unspectacular) at every position, you can see why they’ve been having an uptick in fortunes recently.

On Offence:

As it was last night, the key in this game will be the battle between Delfino and Nene. Whichever player can take advantage of their opponent’s defensive weaknesses better will give their team the upper hand in this one. Against Brooklyn, Delfino was able to get all the space he wanted on the perimeter, especially when guarded by the slower Evans. Both Nene and Booker are more mobile than the PFs he saw last night, but he should still be able to run them off the floor. Expect to see him get close to last night’s total of 9 three point attempts.

It remains to be seen if the Wizards will give the job of guarding Harden to Beal or look to put the bigger Webster on him. Gerald Wallace, who has a similar build, did a good job of limiting Harden’s productivity in Brooklyn, but I’m not sure how much of that was his own doing and how much of that was the Nets’ ability to poke the ball away when Harden tried one of his drives. He wasn’t especially assertive in last night’s game with the exception of a short period at the end of the third quarter, so hopefully he will be looking to bounce back tonight.

One of the main drivers of improvement in this Wizards squad since the New Year has been their commitment to defence. They are physical in the paint and although their defensive intensity blows hot and cold, they’ve finally managed to get the team as a whole to buy in to the a mindset that is helping them win games. In the past, their help rotations have been slow and lackadaisical, but watching snippets of their tilt with the Nuggets last night that facet of their game looked much improved. The Rockets will need to execute well out of the pick-and-roll to keep the offense flowing. We’ve seen both Asik and Motiejunas have great success working with Lin recently, some spectacular highlights last night against Brooklyn (although admittedly, many of them came when Mirza Telatovic was on the floor – that guy didn’t seem to understand how help defense works), and it will be imperative to keep that going tonight.

On Defense:

I have unhappy memories of watching John Wall torch the Rockets in an up-and-down affair in DC a few years back. He’s one of the quickest players around in the open court and will make you pay if the tempo is too high. This is somewhat worrying as the Rockets have struggled to deal with teams like Denver that are capable of thriving in a fast paced game. It will be down to the still somewhat ropey transition defense to hold firm and stop the ball.

Beyond that, there’s also the Nene/Delfino mismatch. Unlike Ibaka and Evans from the previous two games, Nene actually has a semblance of a post game. He’s strong but mobile and is likely to present a much stiffer challenge to Carlos than either of his previous matchups. You should see some quick post moves, and he’s more than capable of marmalizing the rim if you give him an open roll to the hoop. One of the other issues this pairing presents is that of glass protection. There were a few moments in the last few games where it felt like the Rockets were getting out-battled in the rebounding department, although it didn’t end up killing them. But last night the Wizards managed to grab 18 offensive rebounds against what is a pretty formidable rebounding team in Denver. You can bet that they’ll be looking at the small lineup Houston is putting on the floor and licking their lips.

Summary:

While their respective records would make it look like a Rockets victory is a foregone conclusion, recent improvements in Washington’s level of play make this anything but that. This is going to be a difficult game, especially on the second night of a back-to-back, and if the Rockets are going to come away with it their going to have to work hard to exploit the mismatches their line-up composition presents on offense while covering for their rebounding and post-defense disadvantage. This is the definition of a trap game, and I would not be surprised if the Wizards came away with the victory.

The post Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards on 2/23/13 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The Thunder reached the All-Star Break on their worst losing streak of the season. This sounds like a promising sign until you hear the length of that streak – 2 games. A team that has not lost back-to-back games all year will certainly not be expecting to lose a third on the bounce. They will come into this game with a clean bill of health and with Durant and Westbrook keen to build on the feel-good vibes surrounding the weekend.

The Rockets dropped their final game before the break to the Clippers – tough opponents at the best of times but even more daunting a prospect without the services of Harden. The Bearded One didn’t seem overly affected by his ankle over the weekend, so he should be ready to play. It remains to be seen whether Toney Douglas will have recovered from the hip pointer he suffered against Portland, but with Patrick Beverley there to step in there isn’t much lost in the Rockets’ rotation.

Lineups:

Oklahoma City’s starting unit have logged the most minutes together of any 5-man lineup in the league (838 minutes total). All Stars Durant and Westbrook are surrounded by defensive specialist Sefalosha, shot blocker Ibaka and post defender Perkins. First off the bench is old friend Kevin Martin, who has been thriving with the reduced responsibilities of his role in OKC. With the defensive attention drawn elsewhere, he has been able to post a career high 43.6% mark from behind the arc – he’s pretty much the best fit next to Durant and Westbrook you could ask for. They can also roll out Nick Collison, who is an excellent glue guy (or perhaps ‘utility big’ is a better term when referring to a power forward with his skill-set), and Reggie Jackson seems to have won the battle of the backup PGs over Eric Maynor. When they’re in ‘Let’s be serious’ mode as they were against Miami on Thursday, they can shrink the rotation down to just those eight (with Durant playing the full 48 minutes). Most of the time though, they will distribute a few minutes further down the bench to keep some of the load off their superstars’ shoulders – they will spell Durant with DeAndre Liggins and/or Perry Jones, and expand their big man rotation by giving Hasheem Thabeet or Daniel Orton some backup center minutes.

Houston’s rotation has been serving them well so it’s unlikely to see any significant changes tonight unless it’s a blowout. With Smith currently down in the D-League, Cole Aldrich will backup Asik against his former team. Motiejunas had his best game of the year before the break, so McHale may see fit to try him out for a few minutes in the second quarter if he sees an opportunity. We may see Parsons playing PF a bit to counter times when the Thunder go small as Durant would be able to torch Patterson or Morris with his quickness. I wouldn’t expect the Rockets to initiate the smallball though – you don’t want to give Scott Brooks an excuse to play Durant more than he has to, after all!

On Offense:

In the past two meetings, the Thunder have mostly been able to keep Harden quiet. This was particularly noticeable in the teams’ first meeting, when a combination of some overly-aggressive driving and a defence that knew his tendencies better than anyone else in the league led to a 3-16 shooting performance during an ignominious return to his former stomping ground. The key to preventing his driving game from picking up steam is to have good timing on any attempts to poke the ball away and a rim protector who can pounce whenever the shot attempt is too predictable. OKC are capable of the the former thanks to the defensive nous of Sefalosha and the long arms of Durant and Westbrook, and Ibaka handily supplies the latter. As the season has gone on Harden has got better at varying his lines of attack enough to create the space for his moves to the basket to work, but this game will be his biggest test in a while.

One exploitable facet of the Thunder defense is to take advantage of Russell Westbrook off the ball. His tends to overplay his man quite strongly in an attempt to deny them the ball, and can often be caught ball-watching if the PG makes a quick cut to the rim while his back is turned. Off ball play is something Lin is still working at, but running a few plays to free him of Westbrook’s attention and get him moving towards the rim before the catch may pay dividends.

Stretching the floor is key to attempt to hamstring the OKC’s frontcourt. Ibaka is mobile but would much prefer to hang around the painted area waiting to block shots, and Perkins is a disaster if you can force him out to the perimeter. The onus will therefore be on Patterson and Morris to drag their defender out of their comfort zone. They’ve been able to do this well in the past – in the first meeting between these two teams, Patterson put up one of his better games – 27 points on 11 of 18 shooting (2-3 from downtown), and in the second Morris was the one to shine as he racked up 24 points (4-6 from the outside). It would be good to see more of the off-the-dribble game that Patterson flashes every once in a while. The next step down the path he’s traveling is to be able to cause damage penetrating from the perimeter against a slower defender – adding that nuance to his game on a consistent basis will round out his skillset nicely.

This is the end of the floor that is going to be the most critical if the Rockets are going to pull off an upset. In the past two meetings, the Rockets have failed to breach the 100 points barrier on both occasions. Some of that is because the Thunder have made it difficult for Harden to get going, but it is the ability of their defense to cause Harden problems without disrupting the rest of their scheme that is the real killer. Against most teams the penetration of Lin and Harden is enough to throw the defence into disarray, but both Westbrook and Sefalosha are excellent on-ball defenders, which helps limit the drives, and once the ball-handler gets to the paint he is confronted with the imposing figure of Serge ‘Shot-Blocka’ Ibaka. It’s a difficult combination to figure out, but the Rockets will have to do it if their to stand a chance of winning the game.

On Defense:

While their offense has been starting to show signs of diversifying this year, the staple of the Thunder’s game is to put the ball in the hands of their two best players in positions where they can wreck havoc. The scary thing is, for Durant that basically means anywhere in the half court these days. He can bully you in the post, he can beat you off the dribble, he can pull up pretty much anywhere in the midrange for a shot that’s above average percentage-wise. Parsons is going to draw that assignment, and it’s a nightmarish one. This year some league watchers have been critical of some of Parsons’ defensive decision-making, particularly with regards to gambling for steals and over-helping. One would hope that tonight he will have been told to have eyes only for Durant, because that’s one player who needs attention all of the time.

The key with Westbrook always used to be to try and bait him into being a jump-shooter. With the right encouragement, he could often be induced to fall in love with the pull up at the elbow to his team’s detriment. This year, however, he has been making better decisions and the offense has been running sweeter because of it. Having a player like Kevin Martin who thrives off-ball has likely helped him somewhat in that regard, but reports suggest that alone cannot explain the significant jump in assist rate Westbrook has been able to produce this season.

The complementary pieces can kill you when you’re up against the Thunder as well – you can’t afford to concentrate too hard on the big two because there’ll be Martin lurking on the perimeter dropping in the three pointers that Matt Bullard likes to refer to as ‘lay-ups’, and Serge Ibaka consistently seems to kill the Rockets with his elbow jumper. The general consensus about him may be that his offensive arsenal is still a work in progress, but you wouldn’t have known it if you only watched his performances against the Rockets. Sefalosha is up at 40% on three pointers this season too, so you can’t leave him alone either.

It’s inevitable that the Thunder will put up plenty of points – they average 110 points per 100 possessions (#2 in the league, a hair behind Miami), and the Rockets defense hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence this year. The key will be to limit the damage sufficiently that a good offensive showing will allow them to hang. A lot of the pressure will therefore be on Asik and Patterson to be in the right places at the right times to plug the leaks that will inevitably appear in the perimeter defense when such talented offensive players are on the other team.

Summary:

This is a pretty tough start for the Rockets in their first post-All Star Game test, and on the evidence of previous showings they are unlikely to come away with a win. It will require sharp and snappy ball movement, plenty of shots falling and at least a semblance of defensive cohesion if they are to pull out would would be a morale-boosting victory against a potential playoff opponent.

The post Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets on 2/20/13 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

After a blistering string of high scoring wins, the Rockets negated their five game win streak with a five game losing streak. In those losses, the Rockets scored over 100 points only once, and they’ve shot a mediocre 44% from the field. In December, the Rockets were using their speed and efficiency to slice elite defenses into pieces. In January, the Rockets have looked sluggish and listless, missing layups, free throws and jumpers. As the minutes and games pile up, the Rockets face their 9th game in 14 days, and will have played 10 in 15 days on Saturday. The starters continue to log big minutes and log worse and worse shooting and effort. Something has to change if the Rockets plan on holding their rapidly slipping playoff spot.

Head Coach Kevin McHale seems to be ready to loosen his rotation at last, given the need for rest. New Rockets Patrick Beverly stepped up in his scant minutes against the Mavericks, showing a degree of effort and hustle that the rest of the team seemed sorely missing. Beverly may not find himself playing many minutes in the long term, but during tough stretches, or when starters are exhausted, he seems like exactly the fourth guard the Rockets needed to insert into the lineup. When the Rockets turn games into track meets, they need to have enough runners to pass the baton to. If the Rockets are willing to lose games poisoned with building fatigue, they may as well be willing to lose games while developing their prospects and bench chemistry.

Every young team faces painful trials necessary for growth, and the Rockets are no exception. Unsustainable rotations, still tenuous team chemistry, and cagey veterans have certainly not helped the Rockets’ primary liabilities, turnovers and defense. The failures have been failures of execution, not failures of mentality. Even when the Rockets clank every open look, they still push down the stretch, and think they can win any game. They have the willingness to win ugly games, even if they lack the ability to actually win them.

Unfortunately, the Pacers are one of the league leaders in making games ugly. Vogel’s Pacers hang their hat on a methodical, crushing defense that slows the game down (they play at a plodding 92.3 possessions per game). After they grind down the other team with 24 second defense, they bring the ball up in one of the most uneven offenses in the league. While they have the best defensive efficiency in the league, only the Wizards have a worse offensive efficiency. The result are games that take teams out of their flow, present viewers with scoring droughts, and result in abnormally low scores.

The good news for the Rockets is that their tenuous grasp of defense won’t be tested too hard. Roy Hibbert, while still a defensive stalwart, has had an abysmal year on offense. He’s averaging only 41% from the field, which is mind-boggling given that the majority of his shots come within a few feet of the rim. Hibbert doesn’t look 100%, and that should free Asik to help more of defense. Danny Granger, previously the Pacers’ offensive anchor, is still out with a knee injury. While he’s never been the most efficient scorer, he can play every aspect of the game, including smart defense. The Pacers have done a good job of hanging tough without Granger, but his absence hurts them.

Paul George, on the other hand, has made the most of what he’s been handed. The third year man out of Fresno State is averaging an impressive 16.9 points, 2.9 assists and 7.8 rebounds this year, and looks poised to retain big minutes, even after Granger returns. The Rockets will have to make allowances for him while still looking out for an old enemy. Ex-Hornet David West has provided a stabilizing influence for the young Pacers, and has always provided a lethal shooting touch from midrange. “The 17 foot assassin” will be all too happy to punish the Rockets yet again unless they can stay on him. Given the Rockets’ problems with perimeter defense, and their penchant for switching on screens, West may find himself shooting over a lot of shorter players trying desperately to close out.

If the Rockets can enforce their pace, they stand a good chance of taking a win from one of the better eastern conference teams. It worked against the Grizzlies and the Bulls, and should be effective again if their energy holds up. On the other hand, if the Rockets legs go out, they’re in for a long, slow night. If the shots stop falling from the outside, the paint will suddenly clog, and the Rockets will be left with few good options. Even if they can force trips to the free throw line, they still have to make those shots, too. Lately, even those shots don’t want to fall. Smart use of the bench and metering of minutes will prove necessary for McHale. Frank Vogel is a smart coach with a smart team, and Kevin McHale will have to pull every trick out of his coaching bag. If things get ugly, as they usually do against the Pacers, the Rockets will have to ask a question they’ve failed to answer in January: How do we win ugly games?

The post Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers on 1/18/2013 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The Rockets will have the schedule against them in this game, arriving in Dallas late on Tuesday after their match-up with the Clippers.  A glance at their record in back-to-backs makes for grim reading – scoring is way down at only 96.4 PPG (down on their overall average of 105.4) and their record is only 4-7. The main cause of that discrepancy seems to be shooting – field goal percentage drops from 45% to 41%, a significant decline. They will face a Mavs team with a day’s rest who are in the middle of a four game homestand, so if they are going to get anything out of the game the Rockets are going to have to fight through tired legs and find a way to disrupt the Maverick’s rhythm.Lineups:

Initially, Dirk Nowitzki’s return did not seem to improve Dallas’ putrid form. But after starting 1-8 in his first games back he has managed to turn things around recently. Dirk is still not back to scoring as consistently as he used to, but he is still a terror in the midrange and will be opposing team’s number one focus whenever he’s on the court.

Another player the Rockets will not be pleased to see if OJ Mayo, who torched the Rockets for 40 points in their last encounter. Containing Mayo is key to defeating the Mavericks, who have not won when Mayo shoots under 47% since opening night.

Darren Collison, Shawn Marion and Chris Kaman will round off the starting lineup for Dallas. They also have the luxury of bringing former All-Star Elton Brand off the bench to be their 6th man, and shot-blocker Brandan Wright rounds off a solid big man rotation. At the wings they will spell the starters with Dahntay Jones (a defensive specialist), Vince Carter (who’s having a renaissance of sorts as he embraces the reduced role that comes with age) and Jae Crowder (a rookie sharpshooter who has looked pretty good from what I’ve seen of him so far). Rodrigue Beaubois will backup Collison at the point.

For the Rockets, the battle for the PF position continues unabated. Patterson managed to regain his starting spot last night for a match-up with Blake Griffin, but did not perform all that well. Meanwhile Morris had a good game coming off the bench, with 3 three pointers. McHale values Patterson’s defence and I suspect that he will keep him in the starting line up for the next few games given the strength of the opposition at the position (starting PFs: Nowitzki, then West). The team really needs some consistent production out of this position – it’s one of the spots where McHale needs to keep tinkering until he finds a balance that allows both Morris and Patterson to succeed.

Lin seemed OK last night against the Clippers despite reports of an issue with his ankle coming in. Hopefully it won’t stiffen up between games. He might see reduced minutes tonight anyway if past games are anything to go by(more on that later). Any problems that cause him to be unable to play may mean we see some more of Patrick Beverley. As Forrest alluded to in last night’s recap, he showed some promise in (very limited) garbage time, able to withstand what I can only assume was Jamal Crawford’s attempt to give him an NBA baptism of fire with some aplomb. He’ll be someone to keep an eye on as the season goes on, and if he can show that he understands defensive principles beyond the dogged man-on-man variety he may be able to break into the team’s tight 3-man guard rotation.

On Offence:

As a team, the Rockets need to do a better job of avoiding settling for three pointers too much. At times, the offence starts to drift and it seems like the default shot to take is from behind the arc. That’s all well and good when some of them are going in, but when the perimeter guys are blowing cold it makes the offence look horrible and often coincides with opponents going on runs. They need to mix it up a bit and break the pattern – these ruts are one of the main reasons why Rockets games are see-saw affairs, and eliminating them would make the team much less frustrating, both to watch and play for. Especially as the game moves into the second half, it is imperative that the offence can produce a consistent stream of points. Too often in this four game losing streak the team has been unable to do that.

One factor that should help stop slumps like this forming in this game is that the Mavericks are one of the worst teams in the league at allowing free-throws. They sport an opponent FTA/FGA of .230, good for 27th in the league. Against a group like that, it is imperative to get into the lane and force the action.

It’s all very well drawing free throws, but unless you’re converting them it’s not particularly useful. The Rockets have had a couple of games recently with atrocious overall free throw shooting numbers, and it’s worth doing a short dissection of this trend. Against the Celtics, this was because the players who were being sent to the line were not Toney Douglas (90.7% FT%) or James Harden (85.6%) but Omer Asik (53.9% and 1-8 on the night) and Greg Smith (64.6% and 0-4 on the night). You can’t expect a team to shoot a high percentage at the line if your worst shooters are the ones taking them, so this seems like a forgivable lapse. But against the Clippers it was a team-wide malaise, which is more worrying. Of the seven players who attempted free throws during the game, only Carlos Delfino (4-4) was perfect from the line. There won’t have been much time for the coaching staff to correct this tendency, but hopefully the players will come in knowing they need to do a better job here.

Another key part of the game that the Rockets can exploit is rebounding. The Mavericks are in the bottom third of the league in rebouding % on both the offensive and defensive glass – neither Kaman nor Nowitzki are particularly good in this area. This might be a good game for Greg Smith if he can get time on the court – his ability to outwork opponents on the offensive glass could lead to a lot of opportunities this evening. Especially since tired legs will undoubtably lead to a few more missed shots than usual.

On Defence:

The most intriguing aspect of the Rockets’ last game against the Mavericks was the coaching staff’s search to find someone who could adequately guard OJ Mayo. After starting Harden on him, they quickly switched to Parsons before eventually settling on Toney Douglas. They were concerned that Mayo was too quick for Parsons to guard (from memory I think Chandler had been slightly too respectful of Mayo’s dribble and allowed him to hit some threes in his face), but Douglas has his own shortcomings. He did well for most of the game but got wiped out on screens on a couple of key late possessions allowing Mayo to get open for some dagger shots. It will be interesting to see whether the coaching staff return to this match-up tonight. If they do, it will likely mean extended minutes for Douglas at the expense of Lin. This may be a boon if Lin is still feeling the effects of his ankle injury.

Parsons will probably also take a few possessions on Mayo, but you have to be careful with cross-matching because that will put the smaller SG on Marion. He may be getting older, but Marion is crafty and very capable of abusing a smaller man in the post if given the opportunity.

Patterson has come back in time to draw some of the toughest covers in the league, each with their own unique challenges. Last night he was having to worry about getting dunked on, whereas tonight he’s going to have to worry about getting buried under a rain of one-legged fadeaways. Guarding Nowitzki is always tough, and I would imagine the Rockets will look to try and change things up after several passive defensive showings and perhaps throw a few double teams at him.

Summary:

The Mavericks’ offence features two potent threats in Nowitzki and Mayo and several other competent attacking players. But it is the other end of the floor that will decide whether the Rockets are able to win this game. If they can get to the line and the offensive glass, they should stand a good chance of being able to snap their season-worst losing streak.

The post Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks on 1/16/13 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

The Rockets will have had two days rest since their bout with the Cavaliers. While the coaching staff will have been very satisfied with recent results, there are always improvements to be made and the extra time to implement a few new sets and perhaps brush up on some defensive principles is sure to come in handy. The Lakers come to Houston on the back of yet another high profile disappointment against Denver on Friday (although to be honest, it seems like every loss for the Lakers is a high profile disappointment these days). Morale is low, with players talking about a lack of chemistry and a surfeit of years, and whereas up until a few days ago it seemed unthinkable that this team full of stars would be taking an early bath at the end of the season, doubts are beginning to surface about their ability to dig themselves out of an ever-deepening hole.

Lineups:

The big news here is the absence of the majority of the Lakers’ front court players. Pau Gasol’s concussion has him listed as out indefinitely, Dwight Howard has a torn labrum and won’t be playing for another week, and Jordan Hill is also going to miss the game with a hip injury. Missing their top three frontcourt players would be a hindrance for any team, but it’s especially damaging for a team as top heavy as the Lakers due to the lack of adequate bench replacements who could step up. There’s only one true centre still standing on the roster, and that’s 7 foot rookie Robert Sacre. Here’s his highlight reel, showcasing his elite skills! The key observation to take from that – he’s not on the court very much, having logged only 55 minutes this year. But he’ll get the start tonight along side Jamison, and when he’s not on the court the Lakers are going to have to press either Jamison or Metta World Peace (!) into service at the 5. Earl Clark and Devin Ebanks can also fill out the forward spots, but it’s going to be a struggle for any of these guys to provide a competent inside presence on defence. It’s going to be a shock to the system to this team, who will probably have had the least practice at playing small of anyone in the league.

Of course, Nash and Kobe are still around to provide a significant backcourt threat. Darius Morris can be counted on to spell Nash from time to time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kobe decides he’s going to put the team on his back and ends up playing 40+ minutes. To start off with MWP will be the small forward, but in smaller lineups Jodie Meeks will slot in at shooting guard and Kobe and MWP will slide down a spot. Let’s not forget that there are plenty of holes in the backcourt too – both Steve Blake and Chris Duhon are out, and Darius Johnson-Odom has just been released.

Compared to the ravaged Los Angeles roster, Houston’s is pretty much pristine. The only possible question mark at the moment is Chandler Parsons, who sat out of yesterday’s practice with illness. This is unfortunate, since his battles with Kobe have always been fun to watch (and since Kobe is going to be shouldering even more offensive load than usual, his absence would be felt even more than usual). Hopefully he will have recovered in time for the game. Patterson has been outplaying Morris quite considerably over the past few games, and must surely be in line to retake his starting spot in the very near future. We saw him playing centre for stretches against the Bucks, and he might reprise that role at times tonight if McHale feels the need to match the Lakers in going small.

On Offence:

On paper, there’s a clear weakness the Rockets should be exploiting – the lack of interior presence. But as much as it would be tempting to try posting up Asik, the Rockets should refrain from going to him too much. In an interesting article this week, Henry Abbott wrote about how players with limited offensive skills often look to isolate Steve Novak imprudently on the basis of his poor defensive reputation, but in the process are only able to put up mediocre offensive numbers. It would be easy to fall into the same trap here. At the end of the day the Rockets have a formula that has been working extremely well and it would be foolish to deviate from that for the sake of chasing a few mismatches.

It should be noted that Harden has had two of his worst shooting games as a Rocket (neither 7-18 nor 3-19 are pretty reading) against the Lakers thanks to a combination of World Peace on the perimeter and Howard being there to meet him under the rim. But although World Peace may take up the defensive duties again at the beginning of the game, he’s going to have to cover some of the bigger guys eventually and Harden will be left with the much easier task of breaking down Jodie Meeks and perhaps Earl Clark (I think the Lakers will resist putting Bryant on him to save him for the other end). In addition, the shot blocking menace of Dwight Howard will be absent, making things a whole lot easier around the rim. Lin should also be able to feast against the permissive defence of Nash and the lack of tall trees in the painted area.

As we’ve seen with the Heat’s struggles on the defensive end so far this season compared to their normal superlative work on that end of the floor, it takes a lot of effort and practice to make a smallball lineup effective defensively in anything other than short stretches. The Lakers will have neither the transcendent defensive presence of LeBron nor an offseason’s worth of practice like the Heat, so don’t expect swarming double teams and crisp rotations. I’m expecting to see a lot of open looks and wouldn’t be surprised if this one turns into a very high scoring game.

On Defence:

For several seasons, observers have criticised Kobe for calling his own number too often on offence. But tonight, with only Nash alongside him to provide any real attacking threat, he would be forgiven for turning the game into the Kobe Bryant show. Expect him to put up a lot of shots, be they heavily contested or otherwise. If Parsons is fit to do so, he’s going to be very busy this evening. If Bryant is hot he can sink you, but it’s worth noting that the Lakers have lost every one of the 9 games this season where Bryant has scored 35 or more. In order for the Lakers to win this one they will need someone other than Bryant to pick up the load, and that person is likely to be Nash.

Steve Nash spent his post-Amare years in Phoenix lifting the performance of his mostly subpar team almost singlehandly.  If he’s allowed to, he can make his big men look good and the pick-and-roll sing. For example, if you cast your mind back a couple of years you may remember this game, in which the generally poor Hakim Warrick was made to look like a monster en route to 32 points from 14-19 shooting. If he is given the time on the ball to get into a rhythm, he may be able to coax enough life out of the rest of the team to be competitive. This seems like an unlikely scenario on a team with Kobe Bryant, though. What is more likely is that he’ll be used to space the floor a bit – it’s easy to forget that he’s one of the game’s premier shooters given his other talents. He is usually quite conservative with his shot selection, allowing him to shoot a high percentage, but he has always been able to turn on the scoring tap if his team needs it, and they will tonight.

The Lakers will be going small a lot, and the onus will be on McHale to decide whether to match them in the small lineups of try and make use of the size advantage. We saw him dust off one of his old favourite from last year against Milwaukee when he put Patterson at centre, and he might give that another whirl this evening. If the ball movement is good enough, the Rockets may struggle to keep up with the Perimeta rotations if they are playing with a two big man line. Of course, when the Kobe show kicks off the ball movement for the Lakers tends to grind to a halt.

Summary:

The injury woes of the Lakers make the Rockets the clear favourites for this game. However, you can never take a game likely when players of the calibre of Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant on the opposing team. Provided that Houston stick to the game plan that has been working so well for the last stretch and avoid the temptation to tinker too much, they should be able to take this game on the back of their offence.

The post Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets on 1/8/12 appeared first on Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets.

This is the first time that the two teams have met since the Bucks made a blockbuster trade at the deadline last year, when they sent former number one pick Andrew Bogut to Golden State in exchange for Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh. In the past Houston has really struggled with the length and defensive presence of Bogut (if you cast your minds back, you may recall that his last game for Milwaukee actually came against Houston, when he went down with a fractured ankle), but without him Milwaukee plays very differently. Of course, the same could be said for Houston given the roster turnover in the intervening time.

Lineups:

One of the major criticisms of Scott Skiles’ coaching of the Bucks this year is his unpredictable and fluctuating playing time allocation.  With so many big men at his disposal, Skiles has had a tendency to change up his rotation on a game to game basis. Some nights you might see 20 minutes for John Henson, others you might see none and his playing time given to Drew Gooden. Occasionally he might play Udoh instead, or just give more minutes to Ilyasova. This has been frustrating to some Milwaukee fans, who feel that it stunts the growth of their young prospects to have their minutes jerked around so much. To a degree I can understand Skiles’ strategy – he is trying to give his players large blocks of minutes on a given night to get them in rhythm. But it does seem like change for changes’ sake sometimes.

As I alluded to, the Bucks are full to bursting with bigs. They’ll start with Mbah-a-Moute and Sanders manning the front court. Off the bench they can bring any one of Ilyasova, Udoh, Gooden, Henson, Dalembert or Przybilla. So yeah, there are a lot of guys to choose from there, and you’re likely only to see 2-3 of the set of bench players on any given night. Perusing some box scores, it seems that Ilyasova and Udoh will always get at least 10 minutes while Dalembert and Przybilla are semi-permanent benchwarmers. The minutes of Gooden and Henson though are anyone’s guess. It’s a little surprising to see Dalembert glued to the bench after half a season of starting for Houston last year, but by my estimation Sanders provides just about everything he can do except better so perhaps there’s some method to the madness.

Sanders is an exciting young player to watch – he’s got great instincts for timing his blocks, but unlike many shot-swatters (see Ibaka, S) he doesn’t bite and try to block everything. By improving his rebounding this season he has been impossible to keep off the court. Mbah-a-Moute is a defensive specialist who until this year was more of a wing player. He’s been able to do a decent job switching over to guard the 4 position though. Ilyasova has disappointed massively after making a breakthrough last season, during which he performed like a poor man’s Kevin Love. A great battler on the boards and capable of putting up monster rebounding games, he also was able to step outside and shoot the three at a highly impressive 45%. Sadly that’s not held up this year and his rebounding has regressed as well, leaving his numbers down across the board. John Henson has been an exciting young rookie to watch when he’s got minutes – he’s slimly built but is extremely fluid and comfortable taking and making shots on the move.

Of course, the stars of the show as far as Milwaukee are concerned reside in the back court. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are running the show together and should log heavy minutes. Both are ball dominant guards, somewhat reminiscent of Houston’s own starting pairing. Beno Udrih would normally be the backup point guard, but he’s out injured, which leaves the guard rotation very thin. They basically will have to leave one of Ellis and Jennings on the court at all times as they are the only true ballhandlers on the roster. The remaining spot in the starting lineup tends to be filled by Marquis Daniels, for reasons unknown to me (he just doesn’t seem like a starting quality player), but off the bench they can bring Mike Dunleavy, who is an excellent and underrated shooter. Every now and then Skiles will give rookies Tobias Harris and Doron Lamb some minutes, but in his last game he kept the rotation tight – only four players were used in the three back court positions in the entire game against San Antonio.

For Houston there’s only really one area of uncertainty in the now familiar rotation, and that’s the competition between Marcus Morris and Patrick Patterson for the starting job at PF. Patterson had an excellent game against New Orleans while Morris struggled, but it remains to be seen whether that will be enough for Patterson to be reinstated to the starting lineup. This is a nice problem for McHale to have – the two have slightly contrasting areas of strength that he can pick and choose from depending on who the opposing team puts on the floor. Morris gives slightly more consistent outside shooting and a more perimeter oriented approach, while Patterson will give a bit more inside presence if that’s an area of weakness to exploit. Similarly on defence if it’s more important to have crisp rotations they can go with Patterson, but Morris’ slightly better lateral quickness may prove useful against tweener forwards (although to be honest in situations where that’s important McHale will often turn to Parsons).

The other interesting question is whether we’ll see any of James Anderson on the court any time soon. He may not have had enough time to learn the Rockets’ system yet, but on the other hand McHale might throw him out there for a couple of minutes to see what he can do. Fundamentally though he’s replacing someone who wasn’t in the rotation, so it’s not as though giving him minutes is vital at this stage unless someone comes down with an injury.

On Offence:

Now that Mbah a Moute is being used more as a PF, there really aren’t any noted wing stoppers on the Bucks’ roster. Harden should be able to abuse Marquis Daniels if the two are matched up because Daniels simply isn’t quick enough to stay in front of him. Ellis might have the speed but doesn’t usually put in the effort on the defensive end that he would be able to cause him any problems either. The high-scoring streak that the bearded one has going should be set to continue in this game. The one thing that both he and Lin do need to be a bit careful of is Sanders’ ability to block shots – while from what I’ve seen of him he’s better at erasing attempts from opposing big men than from penetrating guards, his long arms still make him a difficult presence to shoot over.

This will be something of a homecoming game for Carlos Delfino, who played with the Bucks for the past three seasons. Bucks fans are a raucous bunch (Stephen Jackson was treated to boos every time he touched the ball the other night, and serenaded with chants of “Airball” for the rest of the game after he missed badly on a three), but I don’t really know how they view Delfino or his game, so I don’t know how they’ll treat him. Hopefully it will be respectful – he was a big part of the inspired play that drove the ‘Fear the Deer’ campaign of a few years back, after all. Carlos’ performances have varied more than any other player on the team not named Toney Douglas, but this will presumably be quite a big game for him so we’ll see how he handles things. Hopefully it will be more like 22 point 8 assist performance he put up against the Hawks than the 2 point, 2 assist night he had against the Hornets.

Milwaukee are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league, securing only 71.4% of their own boards (good for 27th out of 30). Sanders is the only decent rebounder on their starting lineup, so this should be a game where the strong rebounding talents all throughout the Houston roster come to the fore to get them some extra possessions. There should also be plenty of chances for the Rockets to run even though the Bucks are generally good at taking care of the ball, because the the copious quantities of mid-range jumpers the Bucks shoot lead to a lot of long rebounds.

On Defence:

This, to me, is where the game will be decided. In Jennings, Ellis and Dunleavy the Bucks have a trio of some of the most deadly ‘streaky’ shooters in the league. Every now and again they are capable of games where they seem to make every shot, which makes them a very difficult team to predict. Preventing substantial outbursts from these three players will be the key to winning the game.

Jennings and Ellis both suffer from a habit of settling for mid-range shots too often, which contributes to their general inefficiency (this is particularly egregious in Ellis’ case, because he is such an effective and often spectacular finisher around the rim), but they are both lightning quick and have the ability to get to spots on the floor you really don’t want them to. Jennings will often chuck up horrific looking off balance floaters and should be encouraged to do that without giving him too much freedom. Ellis, on the other hand, is an above average shooter from most places on the court, it’s just that he shoots from the wrong spots, so it’s not a good idea to leave him alone. As has been discussed a fair bit recently, Harden’s defence has been a bit suspect since coming to the Rockets, and that might mean Ellis goes for a big game.

Dunleavy is a different animal – he is excellent at using screens and will give whoever is guarding him quite a run around. If you leave him open he’s deadly from three point range (41% this year) but he is willing to put it on the floor a bit if given the opportunity in a similar manner to Parsons. I guess Skiles is playing Dunleavy in the 6th man role in order to provide some offence off the bench – it’s the only reason why you would start Marquis Daniels over him. Daniels is not a very good offensive player and compounds this by using more possessions than he should. He’s good at finishing around the rim but shoots only 30% from outside the immediate vicinity of the basket – not what you want from a wing player, especially since he’s only getting about a third of his shots from in close.

While the majority of the Milwaukee offence is concentrated in its backcourt, there are a few other places they can get points from. Larry Sanders has been developing his offensive game a bit, and looks competent when he gets his touches (he’s still quite a low usage player though). He can make shots from the elbow on occasion and has one or two post moves up his sleeve. You should also expect either Jennings or Ellis to throw a few lobs for him. Ersan Ilyasova will crash the offensive glass with abandon, so he will need plenty of attention when the shots go up. He also likes to take advantage of the distraction caused by the Milwaukee guards to drift out to the three point line, where he needs to be respected even if he can’t replicate his red-hot shooting of last year (38.3% this year after shooting 45.5% in the 2011-2012 season). And if Gooden plays he does have a reasonable midrange jumper, though he also has a tendency to take it far more often than he should.

Summary:

Harden presents a match-up nightmare for Milwaukee that Houston should be able to exploit to ride to victory. However, they will have to be wary of the threat posed by the Bucks’ numerous streaky shooters. Provided they can prevent the trio of Jennings, Ellis and Dunleavy from catching fire, they should be able to win this fairly comfortably.

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